Posts from the 'Op-Ed' Category

From quantitative tightening to quantitative crypto: How policy shifts are rewriting market rules

From quantitative tightening to quantitative crypto: How policy shifts are rewriting market rules

The Federal Reserve’s less hawkish stance is acting as a catalyst for renewed investor confidence across both traditional and digital asset classes. This shift is occurring as part of a broader recalibration of macro expectations, liquidity dynamics, and institutional posture toward risk.

For those engaged in the evolution of financial systems, particularly at the intersection of decentralised infrastructure and macro policy, the current moment offers insight into how legacy market frameworks are beginning to accommodate the emerging crypto native paradigm, albeit cautiously.

The Fed’s latest policy update, which shows a more dovish tilt relative to earlier guidance, has brought a degree of optimism to markets already sensitive to changes in interest rate trajectories. The decision to implement a 25 basis point rate cut, along with a pause in quantitative tightening, signals that central authorities believe inflationary pressures may be easing enough to allow a recalibration of monetary policy.

This shift coincides with an increase in US initial jobless claims, which rose by 44,000 to 236,000 in the week ending December 6, 2025, exceeding forecasts. Such labour market softness strengthens the case for a more accommodative stance from the Fed, consistent with UOB’s projection of two rate reductions in the second and third quarters of 2026, bringing the Fed Funds Target Rate to 3.25 per cent by the end of 2026.

Equity markets showed a mixed reaction, reflecting relief over the Fed’s stance and caution regarding ongoing macro uncertainties. The Dow Jones rose 1.34 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 0.21 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 0.26 per cent. This divergence suggests a rotation away from growth-oriented equities toward value and cyclical exposures. A similar dynamic is visible in crypto markets, where Bitcoin’s dominance has increased to 58.75 per cent.

Investors appear to be favouring established, large-cap digital assets as relatively safer options within a volatile risk landscape. This preference for perceived stability aligns with broader portfolio strategies that emphasise quality US equities while leaning toward non-US value and mid-cap exposures.

Fixed income markets also responded positively to the Fed’s policy shift, with US Treasury yields declining. The ten-year yield fell more than 1 basis point to 4.14 per cent, and the two-year yield dropped more than 3 basis points to 3.52 per cent. These movements indicate growing investor appetite for longer duration assets as yield differentials narrow and the path of future rate cuts becomes clearer. Bond yields are becoming attractive again from a strategic perspective, supporting allocations to high-quality fixed income as a counterbalance to equity and crypto volatility.

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar weakened, with USD/JPY falling 0.3 per cent to 155.48 in its second consecutive session of decline. This weakness is consistent with expectations of further Japanese yen strength as the Bank of Japan signals plans to raise rates in December, narrowing the yield gap with the US.

In commodities, divergent trends emerged. Brent crude fell 1.49 per cent to close at US$61.28 per barrel as market attention shifted to potential progress in Russia-Ukraine peace discussions. Gold rose 1.2 per cent to US$2,880.08 per ounce, reinforcing its role as a defensive hedge in uncertain macro environments.

In Asia, regional equities mostly closed lower following the Fed’s rate cut announcement, though early trading showed mixed performance. The strategic outlook remains overweight on Chinese equities, using a barbell approach that combines exposure to tech innovators and high dividend plays.

Against this macro backdrop, the crypto market rose 2.28 per cent in the last 24 hours, maintaining a seven-day uptrend of 0.3 per cent, though still 9 per cent below its 30-day average. This rebound appears driven not by retail speculation but by institutional momentum and favourable liquidity conditions.

Binance continues to lead global Bitcoin trading volume with a 35.4 per cent share, reflecting its established infrastructure and role as a liquidity hub. More notably, JPMorgan’s execution of a debt deal on Solana during Breakpoint 2025 marks an important moment in institutional adoption of blockchain infrastructure beyond asset speculation. This suggests Solana can support more complex financial instruments, strengthening its credibility among traditional finance participants.

US Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$223 million in inflows, the highest in 20 days, indicating renewed institutional demand for regulated crypto exposure. These flows act as a gauge of professional investor sentiment and show that macro tailwinds are influencing capital allocation decisions. Bitcoin’s price action, however, remains closely tied to equity movements, with a 0.85 correlation to the S&P 500. This dependence highlights a vulnerability: despite gaining institutional legitimacy, crypto has not yet separated itself from traditional risk-on and risk-off dynamics. The recent drop in Bitcoin to US$109,000 during a tech sector selloff illustrates this.

Another factor is the sharp rise in derivatives leverage. Perpetual futures open interest increased 11.6 per cent to US$87.9 billion, while funding rates rose 102 per cent within 24 hours. Bitcoin liquidations reached US$95 million, with 77 per cent coming from short positions, indicating strong bullish momentum but also heightened risk of a leveraged long squeeze. The seven-day RSI of 53 suggests scope for further upside if momentum persists and macro conditions remain supportive.

In conclusion, the current rally reflects a combination of institutional engagement and macro liquidity. However, it continues to unfold within a structure still linked to traditional markets. The Fed’s shift provides short-term support, but sustainability depends on whether crypto can develop independent price drivers rooted in utility, adoption, and network effects.

Key levels to watch include Bitcoin’s US$93,000 resistance and the ETH/BTC ratio, which could indicate altcoin rotation. Solana’s ability to maintain institutional interest after Breakpoint will also be important. While conditions have improved, the market’s structural dependencies and elevated leverage call for cautious optimism rather than strong enthusiasm.

 

Source: https://e27.co/from-quantitative-tightening-to-quantitative-crypto-how-policy-shifts-are-rewriting-market-rules-20251212/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Fed cuts rates but crypto plunges: The liquidity trap no one’s talking about

Fed cuts rates but crypto plunges: The liquidity trap no one’s talking about

The market rally following the Federal Reserve’s third consecutive 25 basis point interest rate cut of 2025 appears, at first glance, to signal renewed optimism across traditional asset classes. Equities responded positively, with the Dow Jones rising 1.05 per cent, the S&P 500 gaining 0.67 per cent, and the Nasdaq closing up 0.33 per cent. Bond yields retreated in tandem, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling more than three basis points to 4.15 per cent and the two-year yield dropping over seven basis points to 3.54 per cent.

The dollar weakened broadly, especially against the yen, which gained ground as markets priced in a potential Bank of Japan rate hike in December. Even commodities reflected a cautious optimism, with Brent crude ticking up 0.44 per cent to US$62.21 per barrel amid heightened geopolitical tensions, and gold climbing 0.7 per cent to US$4236.57 per ounce as a defensive hedge.

Beneath this surface calm, the cryptocurrency market tells a very different story. Bitcoin and the broader digital asset complex declined by 2.82 per cent over the past 24 hours, extending a 14.1 per cent monthly drawdown. The Fed’s latest policy manoeuvre, which also included an announcement of US$40 billion in monthly Treasury purchases commencing December 12, effectively a stealth quantitative easing program, failed to ignite bullish sentiment in crypto.

Instead, the market interpreted the move not as a bold affirmation of economic strength, but as a reactive response to deteriorating growth prospects and mounting stagflationary pressures. This perception has triggered a significant reallocation of risk within crypto, where investors are abandoning speculative altcoins in favor of Bitcoin’s relative stability, pushing Bitcoin dominance to 58.54 per cent, a 30-day increase of 1.77 percentage points.

The disconnect between traditional markets and crypto hinges on liquidity expectations, leverage dynamics, and the unique structural vulnerabilities of digital asset markets at this point in the cycle. Unlike equities, which benefit from long-standing institutional infrastructure and predictable seasonal flows, crypto markets operate in a more volatile, sentiment-driven ecosystem that is acutely sensitive to shifts in macro liquidity, especially near year-end.

Analysts such as Adam from Greeks.live have highlighted the historical tendency for crypto liquidity to dry up in the final weeks of the calendar year. This seasonal tightening amplifies any macro uncertainty, turning minor corrections into cascading liquidations when leverage is high.

And leverage was indeed high. Over the past 24 hours alone, US$94 million in long positions were liquidated in Bitcoin markets, with 61 per cent of those forced closures hitting leveraged longs. Total open interest across crypto derivatives markets contracted by 4.34 per cent, while perpetual funding rates, though nominally positive at +0.0023 per cent, failed to provide meaningful price support.

The US$1.25 trillion in daily derivatives volume, a 14.3 per cent increase day-over-day, did not reflect fresh accumulation or conviction buying, but rather panic-driven unwinding by retail traders who had overextended during Bitcoin’s November rally. This dynamic underscores a fragile market structure, one that rallies on euphoria but collapses rapidly when sentiment shifts, especially in the absence of strong institutional demand.

The exodus from altcoins further illustrates this risk-off posture. Tokens like Solana and Sui, which had previously benefited from speculative inflows during periods of macro complacency, dropped between five and eight per cent as investors rotated into Bitcoin. The Altcoin Season Index now stands at just 17, deep in “Bitcoin Season” territory. This flight to safety within the crypto ecosystem mirrors broader macro trends, where institutions are trimming high-beta exposures ahead of anticipated volatility in 2026.

Notably, the 30-day correlation between crypto and the Nasdaq-100 has climbed to +0.48, while Bitcoin’s 24-hour correlation with the index sits at +0.39. These figures confirm that crypto is no longer operating in a vacuum; it is increasingly tethered to the same macro anxieties that drive equity markets, particularly around interest rate trajectories, inflation persistence, and growth sustainability.

From a strategic standpoint, this environment demands a reassessment of traditional crypto narratives. For years, proponents argued that digital assets would decouple from legacy markets and serve as an alternative store of value or inflation hedge. The data from this latest cycle suggests the opposite. Crypto’s fate remains tightly bound to US monetary policy and risk sentiment.

The Fed’s decision to cut rates while simultaneously launching asset purchases should, in theory, have flooded the system with liquidity and supported risk assets. Markets read between the lines. The fact that the Fed felt compelled to act while growth indicators remain ambiguous signals underlying weakness, not strength. In such conditions, capital gravitates toward assets with the clearest fundamentals and deepest liquidity, which, within crypto, means Bitcoin and little else.

Looking ahead, two critical levels will determine whether this selloff evolves into a deeper correction or merely a year-end consolidation. First, Bitcoin must hold the US$89,500 support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger cascading margin calls, especially given the elevated leveraged positioning still present in the market. Second, the ETH/BTC ratio, currently at 0.0214 and nearing 2025 lows, will serve as a barometer for altcoin sentiment. A sustained rebound above this level could indicate that risk appetite is returning to the broader ecosystem.

The central question now is whether January’s traditional “risk-on” seasonal patterns, historically a strong period for crypto due to post-holiday capital reallocation and tax-loss harvesting reversals, will be powerful enough to override the macro headwinds building for 2026.

With the Fed Funds Target Rate now at 3.50 to 3.75 per cent and further cuts anticipated in the second and third quarters of 2026, bringing the rate down to 3.25 per cent by year-end, the path of monetary policy appears accommodative on paper. If inflation proves sticky or growth falters further, even these cuts may not suffice to restore confidence in risk assets.

In this context, the crypto market’s reaction to the latest Fed move reflects not just short-term technical weakness, but a deeper reassessment of its role in the global financial system. As institutional adoption matures, digital assets are shedding their reputation as a purely speculative frontier and becoming subject to the same macro forces that govern traditional markets.

That integration brings legitimacy, but also vulnerability. For investors navigating this transition, the key will be distinguishing between structural value and cyclical noise, and recognising that in times of uncertainty, even within a decentralised ecosystem, capital seeks safety first, innovation second.

 

Source: https://e27.co/fed-cuts-rates-but-crypto-plunges-the-liquidity-trap-no-ones-talking-about-20251211/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Bitcoin just broke US$94K: Here’s what the Fed’s next move means for your portfolio

Bitcoin just broke US$94K: Here’s what the Fed’s next move means for your portfolio

The global financial markets entered a holding pattern this week, caught between resilient labour market data and the looming Federal Reserve decision. Investors showed restraint, refraining from aggressive positioning as they awaited clarity on interest rate policy, but beneath the surface of this apparent calm, a subtle recalibration of risk sentiment was already underway.

In traditional markets, mixed equity performance, rising Treasury yields, and a firmer dollar reflected persistent uncertainty. In a parallel universe, the crypto market surged more than two per cent in just 24 hours, driven by a confluence of technical, institutional, and regulatory forces that suggest a growing divergence in how macro signals are interpreted between legacy finance and digital assets.

The US labour market continues to defy expectations of softening. The latest JOLTS report revealed job openings rose to US$7.67 million in the September to October period, well above the US$7.15 million forecast. This data point reinforces the narrative of underlying economic strength, which in turn complicates the Federal Reserve’s path toward easing.

Despite this, many strategists still anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting. Such an expectation hinges on the assumption that recent softness in inflation readings and subtle shifts in labour dynamics will ultimately outweigh the headline strength in job openings.

Treasury yields responded accordingly, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.184 per cent and the two-year jumping to 3.611 per cent, signalling that markets remain sceptical about the durability of any dovish pivot. Meanwhile, the dollar edged higher, pushing USD JPY to 156.88, though expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike in December could reverse that trend through narrowing yield differentials.

Within this traditional macro framework, equities exhibited fatigue. The S&P 500 dipped 0.1 per cent, the Dow Jones fell 0.38 per cent, and only the Nasdaq managed a modest gain of 0.13 per cent. This divergence within US indices underscores the market’s preference for growth-oriented tech exposure amid macro ambiguity.

Regional Asian equities mirrored this cautious tone, closing mixed as traders braced for the Fed’s verdict. The prevailing strategy calls for consolidation in portfolios, with a tilt toward non-US value and mid-cap plays to generate alpha, suggesting that global diversification remains a prudent hedge against US-centric policy risk.

But while traditional markets tread water, crypto roared back with conviction. Bitcoin rose 2.96 per cent, and Ethereum surged 9.02 per cent, lifting the broader market by 2.49 per cent. This move was not speculative froth but rather a technically driven rally with institutional fingerprints and regulatory validation.

At the heart of the action was a classic short squeeze. Over US$163 million in BTC shorts were liquidated in 24 hours, the largest such event since November 25, after prices vaulted above the 94,400 resistance level. This created a self-reinforcing cycle.

As shorts were forcibly closed, their covering purchases pushed prices higher, triggering even more margin calls. Perpetual futures funding rates, which had been negative for nearly 10 days, flipped positive to 0.00218 per cent, confirming a shift in trader sentiment from defensive to optimistic.

Crucially, this rally was not just retail-driven momentum. Institutional demand re-emerged with tangible force. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$1.55 billion in net inflows this week alone, reversing a period of outflows and pushing total assets under management to US$124.24 billion. This re-engagement suggests that institutional players view current levels as attractive entry points, especially if they anticipate a dovish tilt from the Fed.

Further evidence came from on-chain data showing a single entity, likely Bitmain, acquiring US$432 million worth of Ethereum, highlighting strategic accumulation at a time of macro uncertainty. Notably, crypto’s 24-hour correlation with the Nasdaq 100 spiked to 0.72, its highest since October. This strong linkage implies that both markets are responding to the same macro catalysts, namely softening Fed rhetoric and the potential for declining real yields, which historically serve as tailwinds for risk assets.

Perhaps most significant was the regulatory development from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. In Letter 1188, the OCC clarified that federally chartered banks can act as intermediaries for crypto transactions without holding the underlying digital assets on their balance sheets. This guidance removes a longstanding legal grey area and provides banks with a clear pathway to participate in the crypto ecosystem as service providers.

Coupled with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s launch of a tokenised collateral pilot, the regulatory landscape is shifting from adversarial to enabling, at least for institutions. The impact is twofold. On one hand, it reduces operational and compliance risk for traditional finance players looking to enter crypto markets.

On the other hand, it could inadvertently raise barriers for retail participants if compliance overhead increases. Still, the net effect is bullish, as institutional capital requires regulatory certainty before deploying at scale.

From a strategic standpoint, these developments align with a broader thesis. Crypto is evolving from a speculative asset class into a component of diversified institutional portfolios. The recent rally reflects not just a technical rebound but a recalibration of market structure. Leverage is being shed and rebuilt more sustainably, institutional inflows are stabilising spot prices, and regulatory clarity is lowering systemic friction. Even so, caution remains warranted.

The Fear and Greed Index sits at just 30 out of 100, signalling that market participants are still operating from a defensive posture. Much now hinges on the Fed’s tone in its upcoming statement. A dovish signal, perhaps acknowledging progress on inflation or hinting at a December cut, could catalyse a broader risk-on rotation, extending gains across both equities and crypto.

One key question lingers. If Bitcoin dominance continues to wane, will altcoins like Ethereum and Solana sustain their momentum? Ethereum’s nearly 9 per cent surge suggests strong conviction in its post-merge fundamentals and institutional utility, especially as layer two adoption accelerates. Solana, though not mentioned in the data provided, often benefits from spillover demand during ETH rallies due to its high throughput architecture and growing DeFi activity. If the macro backdrop turns favourable, capital rotation into these higher beta assets could intensify.

In sum, while traditional markets remain in a holding pattern dictated by central bank uncertainty, crypto markets are exhibiting signs of structural maturation. The rally is not merely a reaction to price action but the result of deeper forces. Deleveraging, renewed institutional interest, and regulatory progress form the pillars of a healthier, more resilient market, one that may still be volatile but is increasingly influenced by fundamentals rather than pure sentiment.

As the Fed prepares to speak, all eyes will be on whether its message validates the growing optimism in risk assets or reins it in with a reminder of persistent inflationary pressures. Either way, crypto is no longer an isolated sideshow. It is now a barometer of institutional confidence and macro adaptation in a rapidly shifting financial landscape.

 

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-just-broke-us94k-heres-what-the-feds-next-move-means-for-your-portfolio-20251210/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j