November 27th, 2025

Fed rate cut odds hit 85 per cent: Here’s how stocks, crypto, and gold are reacting

Market movements have shaped a complex but increasingly hopeful outlook across both traditional and digital asset markets, primarily fuelled by evolving expectations about Federal Reserve policy. Central to this momentum is a mounting belief that interest rate cuts are on the horizon. Financial markets now place an 84.9 per cent likelihood on a 25 basis point reduction at the December FOMC meeting. This shift in sentiment has ignited a widespread rally, pushing equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies higher in a coordinated risk-on surge that underscores how tightly asset prices are now linked to macroeconomic signals.

The labour market data released on November 26 provided critical fuel for this optimism. Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 fell to 216,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April and coming in well below the median forecast of 226,000. This third consecutive weekly decline signals continued resilience in the employment sector, but in the current environment where inflation appears to be moderating and growth concerns linger, the market interpreted the report as dovish. This interpretation aligns with UOB’s ongoing forecast of a 25 bps cut in December, now seemingly corroborated by real-time market pricing.

Equity markets responded enthusiastically. On Wednesday, November 26, the S&P 500 rose 0.7 per cent, the Nasdaq gained 0.8 per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.7 per cent, with technology stocks leading the charge. The gains extended a four-day winning streak in a holiday-shortened week, underscoring investor confidence in a pivot toward looser monetary conditions.

Notably, the US market closed early in observance of Thanksgiving, leaving Asian markets to carry the momentum into the next trading session. This global transmission of sentiment was evident in South Korea’s KOSPI, which surged 2.67 per cent on November 26 to close at 3,960.87, its strongest single-day advance in weeks. Regional indices across Asia followed suit, reinforcing a strategic tilt toward non-US value and mid-cap equities as sources of alpha, particularly in technology and dividend-yielding sectors.

Fixed-income markets reflected a more cautious recalibration. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held steady at approximately 4.00 per cent, while the 2-year yield edged slightly higher to 3.47 per cent, resulting in a 10Y-2Y spread of about 53 basis points. This modest flattening suggests that while near-term rate expectations are shifting, longer-term inflation and growth concerns remain anchored. Nevertheless, the widening spread between equities and bonds is beginning to make fixed income more attractive, prompting institutional investors to accumulate high-quality bonds in anticipation of a Fed pivot gradually. The relative stability of the 10-year yield amid equity rallies suggests the bond market is not fully pricing in aggressive easing but remains open to modest cuts if inflation data cooperate.

Currency and commodity markets further validated the risk-on narrative. The US dollar weakened broadly, with Asian currencies like the Korean won and Singapore dollar strengthening as the expected narrowing of the Fed-Asia yield differential reduced the appeal of dollar-denominated assets. Brent crude oil edged higher to US$63.04 per barrel, supported by expectations that lower interest rates could stimulate global demand. Even more striking was gold’s ascent to US$4,163.51 per ounce, a 0.8 per cent increase that reaffirmed its role as a defensive hedge amid monetary uncertainty. Gold’s performance, up nearly 58 per cent year-to-date, reflects not just inflation hedging but also a broader loss of confidence in fiat monetary regimes, a theme that resonates deeply in the cryptocurrency space.

Speaking of crypto, the digital asset market rallied 2.5 per cent over the 24 hours ending November 27, reclaiming a market capitalisation near US$3.07 trillion, a key Fibonacci retracement level. This rebound emerged from a state of extreme fear, as measured by sentiment indicators, and closely tracked the Nasdaq’s gains, with a 24-hour correlation of plus 0.84. Three interlocking forces drove this recovery.

First, technical indicators signalled a classic oversold bounce. Bitcoin’s RSI-14 had dipped to 36.09, bordering on oversold territory, while the MACD histogram turned positive, reflecting a shift in momentum. This setup was amplified by a short squeeze; US$74 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, with 87 per cent attributed to short sellers. Such dynamics often accelerate upward price action as forced buying meets opportunistic dip-buying.

Second, Ethereum witnessed significant off-exchange accumulation. On-chain data from Santiment showed a 49 per cent weekly decline in ETH exchange reserves, equivalent to roughly US$4 billion in value. This movement suggests large holders, whales, and institutions are withdrawing supply from liquid markets, tightening available float, and reducing immediate sell pressure. The trend was reinforced by BlackRock’s ETH ETF, which recorded US$92.6 million in inflows on November 24, its first positive flow in two weeks. This institutional re-engagement, occurring just as ETH tests the 3,000-dollar resistance level, points to strategic positioning ahead of potential macro catalysts.

Third, macro tailwinds provided the overarching narrative. With an 85 per cent market-implied probability of a December rate cut, risk assets across the board benefited from renewed liquidity expectations. However, sustainability remains uncertain. Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple, a metric comparing daily miner revenue to its 365-day average, stands at 0.67, above historical bear market bottoms but not yet signalling undervaluation. This suggests that while the macro backdrop is supportive, crypto-specific fundamentals have not yet reached a point of compelling long-term value.

In conclusion, today’s rally is a fragile synthesis of technical relief, institutional accumulation, and macro optimism. The alignment between crypto and equities, particularly the Nasdaq, has turned digital assets into a high-beta proxy for Fed policy expectations. This very correlation exposes crypto to reversal if incoming data, such as the US PCE inflation report, contradicts rate-cut assumptions. Should the Fed deliver as expected, the stage may be set for a sustained recovery. But without improvements in on-chain fundamentals, network activity, user adoption, and real yield generation, the rally may prove ephemeral, a mere leveraged echo of traditional market sentiment rather than a foundation for a new paradigm.

Source: https://e27.co/fed-rate-cut-odds-hit-85-per-cent-heres-how-stocks-crypto-and-gold-are-reacting-20251127/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

November 26th, 2025

December’s make-or-break moment for crypto’s liquidity crisis

Equities and fixed income have rallied on mounting confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut at its December FOMC meeting. This expectation is reinforced not only by softening consumption data and declining consumer confidence but also by the accelerating political momentum behind Kevin Hassett as the leading candidate to assume the Fed chairmanship. Markets interpret Hassett’s likely appointment as a signal of a more responsive, disinflation-conscious policy framework, thereby pricing in an earlier and potentially deeper easing cycle than previously anticipated.

This macro recalibration is evident across multiple asset classes. US Treasury yields have declined modestly yet meaningfully, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.004 per cent, reflecting a repricing of terminal rate expectations. Concurrently, the US dollar has weakened, providing tailwinds for Asian currencies, which have strengthened amid a narrowing interest rate differential between the US and regional central banks, stable onshore Chinese liquidity conditions, and reduced geopolitical friction following the Xi-Trump dialogue. Chinese equities, particularly in the technology and AI sectors, have rallied in response, indicating that risk capital is already rotating toward markets perceived to offer both valuation support and policy tailwinds.

Despite this broad-based improvement in traditional risk sentiment, digital asset markets remain entrenched in a state of acute pessimism. The CMC Fear and Greed Index stands at 15 out of 100, categorically Extreme Fear, unchanged over the past 24 hours and only marginally above its yearly nadir of 10 recorded on November 22. This persistent fear is notable not for its intensity alone but for its durability in the face of improving macro fundamentals elsewhere.

The total crypto market capitalisation of 3.03 trillion dollars remains below both its 7-day 2.97 trillion dollars and 30-day 3.34 trillion dollars simple moving averages, confirming a technically bearish posture. The 14-day Relative Strength Index has plunged to 27.4, the lowest level since April 2025, signalling exhaustion in the prevailing downtrend. Historical precedent suggests that such oversold conditions, particularly when coinciding with shifts in macro liquidity, often precede short-term mean-reversion rallies.

Complicating the interpretation of this dislocation is the anomalous behaviour in crypto derivatives markets. Over the past 24 hours, perpetual futures volume surged 25.5 per cent to 1.3 trillion dollars, while spot volume contracted by 14.1 per cent to 268 billion dollars. This divergence typically indicates heightened speculative activity absent genuine conviction in directional price movement.

Supporting this interpretation, open interest in perpetual contracts declined by 1.89 per cent to 785 billion dollars, and funding rates collapsed by over 5,000 per cent to a negligible 0.0013 per cent. These metrics collectively suggest that traders are engaging in low-leverage, short-duration positioning rather than establishing sustained long or short exposure. The derivatives market is active, but it is not committed.

The central constraint on crypto market performance remains liquidity. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows of 28 billion dollars this month, draining a critical source of structural demand precisely when macro liquidity conditions are most fragile. Until these flows stabilise or reverse, or until the Federal Reserve explicitly shifts to a more accommodative stance, crypto markets are likely to remain range-bound and sentiment-constrained.

The three trillion dollar market cap threshold has emerged as a key psychological and technical support level. A sustained breach below this mark could trigger algorithmic and leveraged liquidations, exacerbating downside pressure. A hold above this floor in conjunction with a dovish Fed decision could catalyse a significant liquidity-driven relief rally.

Kevin Hassett’s emergence as the presumptive next Fed Chair amplifies the probability of such an outcome. As Director of the National Economic Council since early 2025, Hassett has consistently advocated for a monetary policy that responds proactively to weakening demand indicators. His potential leadership signals a pivot toward a more traditional Taylor-rule-oriented framework, which would likely accelerate the pace of rate cuts in the event of further softening in labour or consumption data. For digital asset markets, which historically exhibit high beta to shifts in global liquidity conditions, this scenario represents a pivotal inflexion point.

In conclusion, the current market environment reflects a transitional regime characterised by divergent sentiment across asset classes. Traditional markets have already priced in near-term Fed easing, supported by both data and institutional expectations. Crypto markets, by contrast, remain mired in extreme fear despite being technically oversold and exhibiting heightened but uncommitted speculative activity. The critical variable bridging this gap is liquidity, which hinges on two near-term catalysts: the Fed’s December policy decision and the trajectory of Bitcoin ETF flows.

Should the Fed deliver a dovish pivot, particularly under Hassett’s anticipated stewardship, it would likely resolve the current sentiment dislocation and re-anchor crypto valuations to a more favourable macro liquidity regime. Until then, tactical positioning should emphasise monitoring these liquidity signals rather than assuming directional conviction.

Source: https://e27.co/decembers-make-or-break-moment-for-cryptos-liquidity-crisis-20251126/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

November 26th, 2025

A House Of Cards Built On Bitcoin: Why Strategy Inc. Can’t Outrun Its 90-Day Clock

Let me begin by saying this. I have nothing against Bitcoin, but did see flaws in the treasury model. I have also voiced that out in an earlier article, too.

There is a certain seduction in the story of Strategy Inc., the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, that has bewitched investors, pundits, and even seasoned crypto natives for years. On the surface, it appears to be a grand corporate embrace of digital gold: a publicly traded entity hoarding Bitcoin not as a speculative side bet, but as a strategic treasury reserve. In a world drowning in fiat inflation and institutional timidity, Strategy Inc. seemed to offer a rare act of conviction, a bold bet on a post-fiat future. But look closer, and the illusion evaporates. The company reported just 54 million dollars in cash on hand, yet faces more than 640 million dollars in annual preferred dividend obligations. Its legacy software business, once the engine of its existence, remains cash-flow negative. There is no internal engine generating the capital needed to sustain its promises. Instead, Strategy Inc. has built a financial house of cards powered entirely by external capital markets, one that only functions so long as investors are willing to keep buying in.

And for a while, they did. From January through September 2025 alone, the company raised 19.5 billion dollars, not to buy more Bitcoin, but to refinance existing debt. This is not innovation. It is recursion. It is a system where new equity and debt issuances are used to pay dividends to prior investors. The only reason this did not feel like a Ponzi scheme was that Strategy’s stock consistently traded at a significant premium to its Bitcoin net asset value. At a 2x premium, every new share issuance effectively increased per-share Bitcoin ownership for existing holders, a virtuous loop that masked the underlying insolvency of the model. But that premium has now vanished. As of late 2025, Strategy trades roughly at par with its Bitcoin net asset value. The magic is gone. Issuing new shares no longer enriches existing shareholders. It dilutes them.

This shift is catastrophic for a model that depends entirely on perpetual capital inflows. Without a premium, there is no arbitrage advantage to issuing equity. Without equity issuance, there is no way to fund those monstrous preferred dividends, especially now that management has raised the dividend rate from 9.0 percent in July to a jaw-dropping 10.5 percent by November. This is not confidence. It is panic. The structure includes no cap on the dividend rate, meaning that every time the common share price dips below 100 dollars, the yield automatically ratchets higher to attract buyers. It is a feedback loop of compounding desperation: lower price, higher yield, greater capital burn, greater pressure on price. The math is accelerating toward a cliff.

The most immediate existential threat is not market sentiment or macro volatility. It is mechanical. On January 15, 2026, MSCI will implement a rule change excluding any company with more than 50 percent of its assets in digital currency from its indices. Strategy Inc. holds 77 percent of its balance sheet in Bitcoin. This is not a judgment call. It is a binary, algorithmic exclusion. JPMorgan estimates the delisting could force passive funds to dump 2.8 billion dollars in Strategy stock immediately. If other index providers follow suit, the total outflows could swell to 8.8 billion dollars. In a stock where 15 to 20 percent of its market cap is already tied to algorithmic strategies that trade on technicals rather than fundamentals, such a forced selloff could trigger a death spiral.

We got a preview of this vulnerability on October 10, 2025. In just 14 hours, Bitcoin dropped 17 percent, order book depth evaporated by 90 percent, and 19 billion dollars in leveraged positions were liquidated across the ecosystem. The event laid bare a fundamental truth: Bitcoin’s market, for all its headline size, remains structurally shallow. The notion that Strategy Inc. could offload 1 billion dollars of Bitcoin annually without moving the market is pure fantasy, shattered not by theory but by real-time data. If the company is forced to sell even 100,000 of its 649,870 coins to meet obligations, it would not just depress the price. It could ignite a systemic cascade, especially if leveraged players interpret the sale as a signal of institutional capitulation.

This is not a critique of Bitcoin, far from it. Bitcoin, as a decentralized, censorship-resistant, apolitical monetary network, remains as compelling as ever. It will likely outlive Strategy Inc., the Federal Reserve’s current chair, and possibly even the dollar’s global reserve status. The issue is not the asset. It is the attempt to graft Bitcoin’s infinite time horizon onto a corporate entity bound by quarterly earnings, SEC disclosures, and 90-day liquidity windows. Sovereign treasuries have operated for centuries. Corporations operate on credit cycles. You cannot run a company like a nation-state, especially when that company has no real operating income and is leveraged to the hilt on a volatile asset.

Strategy Inc.’s entire thesis rests on the assumption that capital markets will remain infinitely accommodating, that investors will always be there to buy newly issued shares or bonds to fund its preferred dividends. But markets are not infinite. They are cyclical, emotional, and brutally efficient at exposing leverage masquerading as strategy. The moment the premium disappeared, the model broke. The moment the index exclusion became inevitable, the countdown began.

We will know the outcome by March 2026. Either Strategy Inc. will be forced into a humiliating restructuring, slashing its preferred dividend, selling Bitcoin at a loss, and retreating into a shadow of its former self, or it will collapse entirely, taking with it the credibility of the entire corporate Bitcoin treasury narrative. Some will call it bad luck. Others will blame macro headwinds. But the truth is simpler: this was never sustainable. It was a high-risk financial structure dressed in the language of conviction, powered by recursive capital raises and investor FOMO.

The data is public. The mechanics are transparent. The outcome is not uncertain. It is mathematically inevitable. What remains is our collective willingness to finally see the 48 billion dollar illusion for what it is: not a visionary bet on Bitcoin, but a self-reinforcing error that mistook leverage for legacy, and market timing for strategy. In the end, Strategy Inc. will not be remembered as a pioneer of digital treasury management. It will be remembered as the cautionary tale of what happens when financial engineering masquerades as principle, and when a company confuses a bull market for a business model.

Additional Notes:

– Reduce digital assets to 49% to stay in the indices

– Sell short-term, hold long-term

– If the biggest treasury fails, the snowball sell effect

– If the biggest treasury fails, what about the rest of the treasuries

– Additional funding

Source: https://www.benzinga.com/Opinion/25/11/49059248/a-house-of-cards-built-on-bitcoin-why-strategy-inc-cant-outrun-its-90-day-clock