Posts from the 'Op-Ed' Category

Why crypto can’t escape the Nasdaq and what it means for the next 30 days

Why crypto can’t escape the Nasdaq and what it means for the next 30 days
The current market environment presents a textbook case of how macroeconomic uncertainty, structural leverage, and sector-specific stress can converge into a self-reinforcing selloff across both traditional and digital asset markets. The recent 5.32 per cent drop in crypto prices over the past 24 hours is not an isolated event but rather the culmination of three interlocking dynamics: miner distress, derivatives deleveraging, and heightened correlation with equities, particularly the Nasdaq-100. Each of these forces feeds into the other, creating a feedback loop that amplifies volatility and accelerates liquidations.

Miner capitulation stands out as one of the most critical bearish catalysts in this cycle. Publicly traded mining firms like Canaan and Hut 8 have seen their equity valuations hammered, with Canaan plunging 14.6 per cent on November 4 to close at US$1.1280 per share. This sharp decline reflects investor anxiety over the sustainability of mining operations as Bitcoin’s price hovers dangerously close to breakeven production costs. Recent data indicates that average mining costs reached US$114,233 as of November 3, while Bitcoin traded below US$101,000 by November 5.

This negative margin environment leaves miners with few options other than selling accumulated Bitcoin reserves to cover electricity, maintenance, and debt obligations. Hut 8’s Q3 2025 earnings report, which showed US$83.5 million in revenue, a 91 per cent year-over-year increase, nonetheless revealed underlying fragility. Despite strong top-line growth driven by scaling operations, the company’s aggressive 1,530 MW expansion plan introduces significant execution and financing risk in a deteriorating price environment.

When miners sell into a falling market, they exacerbate downward momentum, especially when hashprice, the revenue per terahash per second, has already collapsed by 23 per cent since October. The critical technical level to watch remains US$103,000. A decisive break below this support could trigger a wave of forced sales from marginal operators, further depressing spot prices.

Simultaneously, the derivatives market has undergone a dramatic reset. Total open interest in crypto derivatives has contracted by 27.5 per cent month-over-month, falling to US$786 billion, a clear signal that leveraged participants are rapidly de-risking. On November 4 alone, US$851 million in long positions were liquidated, predominantly on perpetual futures contracts where average leverage ratios hover around 25x on major exchanges like Binance.

The shift to negative funding rates, currently at -0.003 per cent, confirms that the market structure has flipped from bullish speculation to defensive shorting or passive hedging. Historically, sustained negative funding often precedes short squeezes, but only after sentiment reaches extreme pessimism. The spot-to-perpetual volume ratio of 0.26 underscores that price discovery is now dominated by derivatives traders reacting to macro headlines rather than organic spot demand.

This dynamic makes the market hypersensitive to external shocks, such as shifts in US Treasury yields or Federal Reserve commentary. With the 10-year yield settling at 4.083 per cent and the 2-year at 3.572 per cent, the yield curve remains inverted, a classic recession warning that weighs heavily on risk assets.

Perhaps most concerning for proponents of crypto’s digital gold narrative is its persistent correlation with tech equities. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin exhibited a 0.86 correlation with the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ), directly contradicting earlier hopes of decoupling.

While some analysts had pointed to a temporary breakdown in correlation during October, the reversion to high co-movement in early November demonstrates that institutional investors still treat crypto as a high-beta tech proxy rather than an independent store of value. This linkage became evident as US equities tumbled, Nasdaq down two per cent, S&P 500 down 1.2 per cent, dragging crypto lower despite fundamentally different supply mechanics.

Meanwhile, traditional safe havens like gold rose 0.8 per cent, reinforcing the flight-to-quality behaviour that excludes volatile digital assets during risk-off episodes. The strength of the US Dollar Index, which climbed to 100.20 for a fifth consecutive day, further pressures dollar-denominated commodities, including Bitcoin, by increasing the relative cost for foreign buyers.

Taken together, these forces create a precarious equilibrium. Miner selling adds persistent spot supply pressure. Derivatives unwinding removes liquidity and amplifies moves through forced liquidations. And macro correlation ensures that any stumble in US equities instantly transmits to crypto markets. Within this turbulence lies a potential opportunity. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 20, Extreme Fear, the lowest reading since March 2025.

Historically, such extremes often coincide with local bottoms, as panic selling exhausts weak hands and creates conditions for a contrarian rebound. If Bitcoin holds above US$103,000, miners may stabilise their balance sheets, derivatives funding could normalise, and the narrative might shift from capitulation to accumulation. But if that support fails, the path of least resistance points lower, potentially toward the US$95,000 zone where mining economics become untenable for a broader swath of the network.

In either scenario, the market is undergoing a necessary cleansing, a washout that tests conviction and separates speculative froth from durable conviction. For now, all eyes remain on price action at the margin, where every candlestick carries the weight of macro fate and miner survival.

Source: https://e27.co/why-crypto-cant-escape-the-nasdaq-and-what-it-means-for-the-next-30-days-20251105/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
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Why crypto is crashing: DeFi hacks, Bitcoin cycle fears, and the Fed’s data blackout

Why crypto is crashing: DeFi hacks, Bitcoin cycle fears, and the Fed’s data blackout

The global macro environment has entered a delicate and highly sensitive phase, defined by the intersection of three structural forces: exuberance around artificial intelligence-driven corporate activity, pronounced ambiguity in monetary policy direction, and growing fragility within the digital asset ecosystem. Recent AI-related strategic partnerships and investments have temporarily buoyed risk appetite, particularly in select segments of the equity market. This rally rests on thin foundations.

Beneath the surface, investor confidence remains fragile, undermined by inconsistent messaging from Federal Reserve officials regarding the future path of interest rates. This uncertainty is further exacerbated by an ongoing US government shutdown, which has suspended the publication of key economic indicators, from inflation prints to labour market reports, that are essential for informed policy decisions and market pricing. In the absence of reliable data, market participants are forced to navigate by sentiment alone, heightening the risk of dislocations, exaggerated volatility, and asset mispricing across both traditional and digital financial markets.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hold its cash rate target steady at 3.6 per cent on November 4 aligns with broad market expectations and reflects a global central banking posture of cautious inertia. Without fresh data from the United States, the world’s largest economy, other central banks are reluctant to make bold moves.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields edged higher, with the two-year yield closing at 3.602 per cent and the 10-year at 4.107 per cent, both rising by 2.9 basis points. This subtle steepening of the yield curve suggests that traders are pricing in a slightly more hawkish near-term stance from the Fed, despite recent rhetoric hinting at potential cuts. The US Dollar Index mirrored this sentiment, climbing modestly to 99.88.

In commodities, gold retreated for a second consecutive day, settling near US$4,000 per ounce. This decline coincided with news that China would end its tax rebate program for certain retailers, a policy shift that could dampen consumer demand and, by extension, reduce safe-haven appetite for the yellow metal. Simultaneously, Brent crude oil held steady at US$64.89 per barrel, as traders digested OPEC+’s decision to pause its planned output increases in the first quarter of 2026. The group’s move reflects growing concern that global demand will soften in the coming months, potentially pushing the market into oversupply territory.

Against this macro backdrop, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp contraction, shedding 3.56 per cent in 24 hours to fall from US$3.55 trillion to US$3.42 trillion in total valuation. This decline extends a broader weekly slide of 7.7 per cent, with the Fear & Greed Index plunging to 27, a clear signal of prevailing pessimism. Three interlocking forces drove this selloff: a major DeFi exploit, mounting concerns about Bitcoin’s market cycle, and a renewed correlation with weakening tech equities.

The most immediate catalyst was the US$128 million exploit targeting Balancer V2 pools on November 3. The attack leveraged a flaw in vault access controls, draining assets across multiple chains including Ethereum and Arbitrum. Despite prior audits by reputable firms like OpenZeppelin and Trail of Bits, the protocol’s architecture proved vulnerable to a sophisticated cross-chain manipulation.

In response, Venus Protocol froze BAL collateral, underscoring the systemic risk that one protocol’s failure can pose to the broader DeFi ecosystem. This event shattered the illusion of self-regulation within DeFi, a narrative that had gained traction as the sector matured. With DeFi’s total value locked already down from US$157.5 billion to US$149.6 billion in the week leading up to the hack, institutional investors are likely to adopt a more cautious stance, delaying capital allocation until clearer security standards and regulatory guardrails emerge.

Compounding this technical vulnerability is a growing fear that Bitcoin’s current bull cycle may have already peaked. The asset briefly dipped to US$105,000 on November 4, a level that represents a 16 per cent drawdown from its all-time high. More critically, Bitcoin now trades below its 200-day simple moving average of US$109,882, a key technical threshold that often signals a shift in long-term momentum.

Analysts point to cyclical timing as further evidence of exhaustion: it has been 1,078 days since the November 2022 low, which corresponds to 101 per cent of the typical historical cycle length. With only 45 days remaining in the historical 518 to 580 day window for cycle peaks, the absence of a decisive breakout above US$113,000 suggests that buying pressure is waning. This view is reinforced by outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw assets under management drop by US$13.4 billion month-over-month to US$147.55 billion, indicating that even institutional demand is cooling.

Perhaps most concerning for crypto bulls is the reassertion of a strong correlation with the Nasdaq-100. Over the past 24 hours, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the QQQ ETF reached 0.73, as the tech-heavy index fell 0.8 per cent. This linkage demonstrates that, despite narratives about crypto’s independence, it remains tethered to the fortunes of growth-oriented equities.

While AI-driven deals lifted select stocks, such as Amazon, the broader market remains red, with over 300 S&P 500 constituents in negative territory. This narrow leadership is unsustainable and increases the risk of a broader tech selloff, which would inevitably drag crypto lower. Further eroding Bitcoin’s unique value proposition is its declining correlation with gold, which turned negative at -0.47 over the past 30 days, undermining its status as an inflation hedge.

In summary, the current market environment reflects a perfect storm of technical, cyclical, and systemic pressures. The Balancer exploit exposed foundational weaknesses in DeFi’s infrastructure, shaking investor confidence at a time when Bitcoin’s price action suggests the bull cycle may be running on fumes.

Meanwhile, the rekindled correlation with tech equities ties crypto’s fate to a sector that is itself vulnerable to shifting monetary policy and earnings disappointments. While the Bitcoin RSI has dipped to an oversold 22.63, suggesting a potential short-term bounce, any sustained recovery will require a credible catalyst, most likely a clear dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve.

Until then, traders should closely monitor Bitcoin’s US$105,000 support level and the QQQ’s 630 mark as critical barometers of market direction. In the absence of fresh economic data due to the government shutdown, these technical levels may be the only reliable guides through an increasingly foggy macro landscape.

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Macro reality check: Why US$4,000 gold and falling BTC go hand in hand

Macro reality check: Why US$4,000 gold and falling BTC go hand in hand

Risk sentiment has retreated sharply, not due to a sudden economic contraction, but rather to growing investor unease over the sustainability of surging artificial intelligence-related capital expenditures and a surprisingly hawkish pivot from the US Federal Reserve.

Despite delivering a widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut to a target range of 3.75 per cent to 4.00 per cent, Chair Jerome Powell used the post-decision press conference to push back firmly against expectations of further easing, warning that inflation remains sticky and that the labour market, while cooling, still shows signs of underlying strength. This messaging effectively neutralised the dovish implications of the cut itself, triggering a repricing across asset classes.

Equity markets responded with a clear rotation out of high-duration tech names. The Nasdaq fell 1.6 per cent, significantly underperforming the Dow Jones, which declined only 0.2 per cent. This divergence underscores a market increasingly sceptical of the lofty valuations underpinning the AI trade, which had been a primary driver of the year’s gains. The repricing was mirrored in the bond market, where yields edged higher.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed by two basis points to settle at 4.097 per cent, while the two-year yield rose one basis point to 3.608 per cent. This steepening of the yield curve, albeit modest, signals that traders are now pricing in a more prolonged period of elevated rates than previously expected. The US Dollar Index capitalised on this shift in sentiment, rising 0.3 per cent to 99.53, its highest level in three months, as global capital sought the relative safety of the greenback.

This risk-off environment spilt over into commodities and, more acutely, into the cryptocurrency market. Gold, often a haven during uncertainty, surged by 2.4 per cent to close at an extraordinary US$4,023.20 per ounce, a level that speaks to deep-seated anxieties about long-term monetary debasement and a potential flight from traditional financial assets. In the oil market, Brent crude was relatively stable, gaining just 0.1 per cent to settle at US$65 per barrel.

This calm, however, belies a complex backdrop. The market is digesting news that OPEC+ is poised to approve another modest output increase of 137,000 barrels per day for December, a move that would continue its gradual unwinding of production cuts. This potential supply boost is being counterbalanced by new US sanctions on Russia, which have stoked uncertainty about the reliability of global oil supply, creating a tense equilibrium that has so far prevented a major price move in either direction.

Against this macroeconomic tapestry, the cryptocurrency market has entered a period of pronounced weakness. Over the past 24 hours, the total market capitalisation has fallen by two per cent, extending a monthly decline of 6.46 per cent. The current market cap stands at approximately US$3.67 trillion, a figure that has broken below both its seven-day and 30-day simple moving averages, signalling a clear deterioration in its technical structure. This downturn is not a simple market correction but the result of a confluence of powerful, bearish forces operating in unison.

The most significant driver of this weakness is a sudden and substantial exodus of institutional capital from Bitcoin spot ETFs. On October 30, these funds recorded a net outflow of US$488 million, the largest single-day withdrawal since June 2025. The selling was led by the market’s two heaviest weights: BlackRock’s IBIT saw US$291 million flee its coffers, while Ark Invest’s ARKB bled a further US$65.6 million. This synchronised institutional retreat is a critical development.

For much of 2025, the steady inflow of capital into these ETFs had been the bedrock of Bitcoin’s price stability and its primary source of new demand. The abrupt reversal suggests that large, sophisticated players are either taking profits after a strong run or, more ominously, are repositioning their portfolios in anticipation of a more challenging macro environment ahead. With total ETF assets now at US$143.9 billion, the market is now on high alert for November’s flow data, which will be the key indicator of whether this is a temporary pause or the beginning of a sustained institutional withdrawal.

Compounding this problem is a sharp contraction in the derivatives market. Total open interest, a measure of the total value of outstanding leveraged bets, has plummeted by 4.4 per cent, falling from US$848 billion to US$812 billion. At the same time, average funding rates on perpetual futures contracts have turned negative, settling at -0.0018 per cent. This combination is a classic sign of market deleveraging.

Traders are actively closing their long positions, often at a loss, to reduce their risk exposure. While this process of forced liquidation removes the immediate threat of a cascading crash, it also strips the market of its bullish momentum. The negative funding rate confirms that the short-term sentiment is firmly bearish, as those holding short positions are now being paid to do so by the longs who remain in the market.

From a technical perspective, the picture is equally grim. The market has not only broken key moving averages but has also seen its Relative Strength Index (RSI) fall to 40.9, entering oversold territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in negative territory, suggesting that the bearish momentum is still in control.

This creates a precarious situation where the market is technically primed for a bounce, but the underlying trend remains firmly down. The next major support level appears to be the US$3.6 trillion mark, a 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level, which will be a critical test of the market’s resilience.

The prevailing sentiment is one of fear. The market’s Fear and Greed Index has plunged to 31, a level categorised as Extreme Fear and the lowest it has been in a week. This psychological state is further amplified by a rising Bitcoin dominance index, which now sits at 59.3 per cent.

When Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap increases during a downturn, it typically indicates that investors are fleeing from riskier altcoins and rotating into what they perceive as the safest asset in the space. This dynamic suggests that if the current pressure continues, altcoins could face even more severe selling than Bitcoin itself.

In conclusion, the crypto market’s current malaise is a direct reflection of a broader macroeconomic shift. The trifecta of institutional caution, derivatives deleveraging, and a broken technical structure has created a formidable headwind. While the oversold conditions may eventually attract bargain hunters, the market is in desperate need of a catalyst to reverse its course.

That catalyst could come in the form of a renewed wave of ETF inflows, signaling that institutions have regained their confidence, or from a more dovish signal from the Federal Reserve that eases the pressure on risk assets. Until then, the path of least resistance remains lower, and all eyes will be on whether Bitcoin can hold its October low near US$105,000 as the ultimate test of its underlying support.

 
 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j