Posts from the 'Op-Ed' Category

From PMIs to CPI: The data that could make or break crypto’s rally

From PMIs to CPI: The data that could make or break crypto’s rally

In the current macroeconomic landscape of October 2025, the world finds itself in a precarious balancing act between fading momentum in major economies and the uncertain ripple effects of fiscal and monetary policy shifts. With the United States in the midst of a federal government shutdown that began on October 1, the usual flow of official economic data has been disrupted, leaving market participants increasingly reliant on private-sector indicators.

Among these, the flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for October have assumed outsized importance. Scheduled for release during the week of October 20 across all major developed economies, these preliminary surveys offer the earliest glimpse into whether the modest growth seen in September can be sustained or whether deeper structural weaknesses are emerging.

The United States, long the standout performer among advanced economies, now faces growing scrutiny over the durability of its expansion. Although the Federal Open Market Committee delivered its first interest rate cut of the year in September, hopes that this would catalyse a renewed upswing are tempered by underlying vulnerabilities. The boost from tariff front-running appears to be waning, and growth remains disproportionately concentrated in financial services and technology sectors.

Compounding the uncertainty is the delayed release of official inflation data. The September Consumer Price Index (CPI), originally due earlier in October, is now expected on October 24, with forecasts pointing to a rise from 2.9 per cent to 3.1 per cent. However, recent PMI data have shown some easing in tariff-related cost pressures, suggesting that if this trend continues into October, it could presage a moderation in headline inflation in the months ahead.

Meanwhile, Europe presents a mixed picture. The eurozone recorded its fastest pace of business activity growth in 16 months in September, a promising signal that the bloc may be regaining some traction. Yet this momentum must be weighed against significant political headwinds, most notably the ongoing crisis in France, which risks undermining consumer and business confidence. In Germany, there is cautious optimism that fiscal measures could stimulate domestic demand, but the net effect on regional growth remains to be seen. The UK, for its part, is navigating a fragile recovery.

September’s PMI data indicated that the economic upturn had nearly stalled, accompanied by substantial job losses. On the inflation front, there is a glimmer of hope. Survey-based measures of price growth have moderated compared to the first half of the year, which should translate into softer official CPI figures in the coming months. Nevertheless, the August CPI reading stood at 3.8 per cent, with core inflation at 3.6 per cent, both well above the Bank of England’s two per cent target, leaving policymakers in a difficult position.

In Asia, mainland China’s economic slowdown has become more pronounced. According to a Reuters consensus, third-quarter GDP growth is expected to have decelerated to 4.8 per cent year-over-year, down from 5.2 per cent in the second quarter. This marks the weakest pace of expansion in a year, driven by a persistent property sector slump, ongoing trade tensions, and tepid domestic demand. The data underscores the challenges Beijing faces in meeting its full-year growth target of “around five per cent” and intensifies calls for more aggressive stimulus measures.

Against this complex macro backdrop, the cryptocurrency market has exhibited a characteristic blend of volatility and forward-looking speculation. Over the past 24 hours, the market has risen by 2.82 per cent, a rebound that appears to be fuelled more by anticipation than by concrete developments.

A key driver of this optimism is the positioning ahead of the delayed US CPI release. Traders are betting on a softer-than-expected inflation print, which could bolster the case for further Federal Reserve rate cuts and create a more favourable environment for risk assets. This sentiment is reflected in Bitcoin’s rising correlation with gold, which has climbed to +0.35, signalling a shared role as a safe-haven asset amidst geopolitical uncertainty.

A significant structural catalyst has also emerged from Japan. The country’s Financial Services Agency has proposed a landmark regulatory shift that would allow banks to hold and trade cryptocurrencies. This move, which follows initiatives like Mitsubishi UFJ’s stablecoin project, represents a major step toward mainstream institutional adoption.

Given Japan’s banking sector manages assets worth approximately US$5 trillion, this regulatory pivot could unlock a vast new pool of capital for the crypto ecosystem. This potential is further amplified by the yen’s persistent weakness, having depreciated by nine per cent against the US dollar year-to-date, which incentivises Japanese investors to seek alternative stores of value.

However, the market’s fragility is laid bare by the dynamics of leveraged trading. CoinGlass data reveals that over US$510 million in Bitcoin short positions are clustered above the US$112,000 price level, creating the potential for a powerful short squeeze if the price can sustain a breakout.

While funding rates have turned slightly positive, indicating renewed interest from leveraged longs, this optimism is counterbalanced by a stark reality. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States experienced a staggering $1.23 billion in net outflows during the week ending October 17, the second-largest weekly outflow in history. This persistent capital flight from the most regulated and institutional-facing segment of the market suggests a deep-seated caution among traditional investors.

Sentiment indicators further validate this caution. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 30, firmly in the “Fear” territory. This level of anxiety, combined with the massive ETF outflows, acts as a powerful counterweight to the bullish narratives. The market is at a critical juncture.

A successful hold above US$110,000, followed by a break above the US$112,000 liquidation cluster, could trigger a powerful short squeeze and reignite a broader rally. Conversely, a failure to maintain this level could quickly reverse the recent gains and re-ignite the month-to-date downtrend, which currently stands at -7.1 per cent.

In conclusion, the current market environment is defined by a tension between hopeful macro speculation and sobering on-chain and fund flow realities. The flash PMI data will be a crucial barometer for the health of the real economy, while the delayed US CPI will be the immediate trigger for market direction.

Japan’s regulatory overture offers a long-term structural tailwind, but in the short term, the crypto market’s fate appears to hinge on the interplay between Fed policy expectations and the willingness of institutional capital to return to the space. Until the fear dissipates and ETF outflows reverse, any rally is likely to remain fragile and vulnerable to sharp corrections.

 

Source: https://e27.co/from-pmis-to-cpi-the-data-that-could-make-or-break-cryptos-rally-20251020/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The Treasury Trap: How Crypto-Backed Stocks Are Trading Below Their Own Assets

The Treasury Trap: How Crypto-Backed Stocks Are Trading Below Their Own Assets

I’ve looked into the financial markets for over two decades, from the dot-com bubble to the global financial crisis, from the rise of passive ETFs to the wild west of crypto winters. But nothing in my career has felt quite as structurally precarious as the current collapse of the digital asset treasury company (DATC) model. It’s not just a market correction. It’s the implosion of a financial illusion built on leverage, narrative, and a dangerous assumption that arbitrage would hold forever. Today, the numbers speak for themselves: market-to-Net Asset Value (mNAV) ratios, the very heartbeat of these firms, are collapsing. Strategy, once the gold standard, now trades near an mNAV of 1.5. That might sound healthy until you realize it’s a steep discount from the 3x, 4x, even 5x premiums it once commanded. Worse, companies like Bitmine Immersion and SharpLink have already dipped below 1.0, meaning their stock prices are now less than the value of the Bitcoin or Ethereum they claim to hold. In plain terms, you could buy their shares, liquidate the company, and walk away with more crypto than the market is currently pricing in. That’s not a bargain, it’s a red flag waving violently in a hurricane.

 

Why is this happening? Because the model is breaking. Not bending. Breaking. And the cracks are spreading fast.

At the core of the rot is nonstop dilution. These companies rely heavily on At-The-Market (ATM) equity programs to raise capital. The idea was elegant in theory: when the stock trades above NAV, issue new shares, use the proceeds to buy more BTC or ETH, and watch the cycle compound. But in practice, it’s a self-cannibalizing machine. Every time they flood the market with new shares, Forward Industries, for instance, has an ATM program sized at $4 billion, the share price gets hammered by supply overload. This happens even as their crypto holdings grow. The result? A paradoxical situation where the company’s balance sheet strengthens while its equity valuation weakens. Retail investors, who bought in expecting to ride the coattails of Bitcoin’s rallies, are instead watching their holdings lag, or worse, decline, while BTC soars. Confidence evaporates. They exit. And that retail selling, combined with relentless dilution, creates a textbook death spiral: more shares issued, lower price per share, wider mNAV discount, more retail panic, even more pressure to raise capital via dilution. The gap between asset value and market perception doesn’t just widen; it yawns open like a fault line.

 

So what can these firms do? The options are grim, and none are sustainable without fundamental change.

One path is issuing high-yield preferred shares. On the surface, it sounds attractive: offer 8%, 10%, even 12% to lure yield-hungry investors back. But let’s be brutally honest, how does a company with no real revenue, no operating profits, and a stated mission to hold crypto forever generate the cash to pay that yield? The only liquid asset they have is the very Bitcoin or Ethereum they swore never to sell. To pay a dividend would be to betray their core thesis and signal desperation. It’s a non-starter.

Another idea is share buybacks. In normal markets, buybacks are a powerful tool to support valuation and signal confidence. But these companies don’t have cash reserves. They survive on new issuance. Their entire financial engine runs on selling equity to buy crypto. Where would the money for buybacks come from? It’s like trying to fill a bucket with a hole in the bottom using water from the same bucket. The math simply doesn’t work.

That leaves the nuclear option: direct redemptions. Allow shareholders to exchange their stock for the underlying BTC or ETH at NAV. This would instantly restore mNAV parity. No more discount. No more illusion. But this move would effectively transform these entities into exchange-traded funds. And that’s a regulatory line they cannot cross. The SEC has spent years carefully approving spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs under strict custody, transparency, and investor protection rules. A backdoor redemption mechanism would trigger immediate regulatory intervention, likely a halt in trading, enforcement actions, or forced restructuring. The moment they offer redemptions, they’re no longer a strategic treasury; they’re an unregistered investment company. The legal risk is existential.

This entire house of cards was built on a playbook pioneered by Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which raised $27 billion to accumulate Bitcoin. The market rewarded it with massive premiums because it was first, credible, and operated with a degree of transparency. But imitation is not innovation. Companies like Metaplanet in Japan tried to copy the model, and dozens more rushed in, believing the premium was a permanent feature, not a temporary anomaly of early-mover advantage and market euphoria. Now, as the arbitrage breaks, when the stock no longer reliably tracks or outperforms the underlying asset, the cycle ends. These firms weren’t Bitcoin treasuries. They were volatility wrappers. And every wrapper, no matter how shiny, eventually unwinds.

 

But the deeper, more troubling truth is how these companies are born and funded. This isn’t public finance as we know it. It’s a shadow system of corporate alchemy.

The creation process bypasses traditional IPO safeguards entirely. There are three dominant playbooks, all designed for speed and opacity. The first is the reverse merger: find a dying public shell, no revenue, few shareholders, trading on fumes, take control, rebrand, and emerge as a digital asset treasury. TRON did this with SRM Entertainment. Janover became DeFi Development Corp. overnight. The second is the SPAC route: merge with a special purpose acquisition company that’s already public, clean, and hungry for a deal. The third is the silent takeover: quietly buy 51% of a microcap stock from insiders or on the open market, stage a board coup, and pivot the company’s entire identity without a formal merger filing. Over 30 companies in 2025 alone have used one of these three models. The infrastructure is now industrialized. You don’t need a product, a team, or a track record. You just need legal control of a broken ticker and a compelling crypto narrative.

Funding follows the same pattern of opacity. These aren’t startups raising from VCs based on technology or traction. They’re capital markets machines built to convert stock price hype into crypto holdings. They use three high-speed mechanisms. First, PIPEs, Private Investment in Public Equity deals, where institutional insiders buy large blocks of stock at a steep discount, behind closed doors. TRON raised $100 million this way. Strive Asset Management pulled in $750 million. Forward Industries secured $1.65 billion for Solana plays alone. These aren’t seed rounds, they’re pre-arranged liquidity events for insiders.

Second, convertible notes: debt instruments that convert into equity if the stock price rises. GameStop raised $2.7 billion this way to buy Bitcoin. Nano Labs prepped $500 million for BNB. It’s debt disguised as equity, a ticking time bomb of future dilution that explodes the moment the stock rallies.

Third, ATM programs, which we’ve already discussed. The reflexive loop is clear: hype the narrative, stock trades above NAV, sell shares, buy crypto, re-hype, repeat. It’s a closed loop that works beautifully, until it doesn’t. And when it breaks, retail investors are left holding the bag.

This brings us to the most corrosive element of all: insider trading isn’t an exception in this space, it’s the operating model. Information leaks at every stage. Legal firms drafting merger documents. Exchanges prepping wallet integrations. Advisors whispering to favored funds. But the most egregious leaks happen during roadshows, the private investor meetings that precede public announcements. SharpLink’s stock was flat until day two of its roadshow. Then, it spiked 1,000% before the deal even closed. That’s not organic market discovery. That’s privileged information being weaponized. Insiders get in early, often for pennies, then dump on retail once the hype hits social media. This is the new digital IPO: no lockups, minimal disclosure, zero accountability.

I have seen cycles come and go, I’m deeply skeptical that this model survives another bull run. The structural flaws are too severe, the incentives too misaligned, the regulatory risks too high. The mNAV collapse is the market’s verdict: these wrappers add cost, risk, and opacity without delivering the promised premium. If mNAV stays below 1, the illusion is over. There’s no magic. No alchemy. Just underperforming shells trading at a discount to the very assets they’re supposed to represent.

To founders, traders, and investors: if you’re not asking who minted the company, who funded it in private, and who front-ran the announcement, you’re not an investor, you’re exit liquidity. And in this game, the house always wins. Until it doesn’t.

 

Source: https://www.benzinga.com/Opinion/25/10/48273792/the-treasury-trap-how-crypto-backed-stocks-are-trading-below-their-own-assets

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Perfect storm: Trade war fears, leverage unwind, and institutional retreat crush crypto

Perfect storm: Trade war fears, leverage unwind, and institutional retreat crush crypto

The global financial landscape entered a period of pronounced fragility this week as a confluence of macroeconomic shocks, technical breakdowns, and institutional retrenchment converged to pressure risk assets across the board.

Nowhere was this more evident than in the cryptocurrency market, which shed 2.39 per cent over the past 24 hours and extended its weekly decline to 10.83 per cent. The sell-off did not occur in a vacuum. Instead, it unfolded against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical friction, banking sector stress, and shifting central bank narratives that collectively amplified risk-off sentiment and triggered a cascade of forced liquidations.

The immediate catalyst for the latest leg down came from former US President Donald Trump, who on October 10 announced a sweeping proposal to impose 100 per cent tariffs on all Chinese imports, effective November 1, alongside new export controls on critical software technologies.

The announcement rattled global markets. Within hours, Bitcoin tumbled 3.5 per cent to US$107,500, while altcoins suffered even steeper losses ranging from 15 per cent to 60 per cent. The move reignited fears of a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies, prompting investors to flee speculative assets in favour of traditional safe havens.

Gold responded accordingly, climbing to a record US$4,361 per ounce, a 2.1 per cent gain, while the US Dollar Index softened by 0.46 per cent to 98.34. The Russell 2000 Index, a barometer of domestic risk appetite, fell 1.2 per cent, underscoring the breadth of the risk aversion.

What made this episode particularly significant for crypto was the reestablishment of a near-perfect correlation with traditional equities. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price movement tracked the S&P 500 with a correlation coefficient of 0.948, the highest since 2023. This tight linkage signalled a return to the risk-on, risk-off regime that dominated markets during the post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle.

In such an environment, crypto loses its identity as an uncorrelated asset and instead trades as a high-beta extension of the tech sector. With US equities already under pressure, Dow Jones down 0.65 per cent, S&P 500 down 0.63 per cent, Nasdaq down 0.47 per cent, the path of least resistance for Bitcoin became unmistakably lower.

Compounding the macro headwinds was a decisive technical breakdown in Bitcoin’s price structure. After consolidating for weeks within the US$115,000 to US$123,000 range, the flagship cryptocurrency finally breached the lower bound of that zone, closing decisively below US$115,000. This move invalidated a key support level that had held through multiple tests and opened the door to deeper downside. Technical analysts noted the emergence of a potential double-top pattern, with bearish confirmation hinging on a weekly close below US$110,000.

Adding to the negative momentum, both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages turned downward, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) plunged to 31.67, deep into oversold territory but not yet signalling a reversal. Futures market data revealed that open interest had actually risen by 2.3 per cent in the days leading up to the crash, suggesting that short sellers had positioned aggressively ahead of the breakdown, anticipating exactly this kind of macro-driven selloff.

Perhaps the most destabilising element of this week’s decline was the scale and speed of the leverage unwind. On October 16 alone, over US$724 million in crypto positions were liquidated across major exchanges, with long positions accounting for a staggering 74 per cent of that total.

This lopsided distribution pointed to excessive bullish positioning among retail traders, who had been riding the coattails of recent institutional inflows. The average funding rate across perpetual futures markets stood at +0.0052 per cent, reflecting persistent long-side pressure that left the market vulnerable to a sharp reversal.

When the macro shock hit, the resulting price drop triggered a domino effect. Margin calls forced leveraged longs to sell, which pushed prices lower, which triggered more liquidations. This feedback loop accelerated the decline and created a vacuum of buyers precisely when support was most needed.

Institutional participation, which had provided a crucial floor for prices in prior months, also pulled back sharply. Bitcoin ETF inflows, which surged to US$2.7 billion the previous week, collapsed to just US$571 million this week, a drop of US$2.129 billion. Grayscale’s GBTC alone saw US$22.5 million in outflows on October 16, marking a notable shift in sentiment among large players.

This cooling of institutional demand removed a key source of structural buying just as retail leverage was imploding. The result was a market caught between two stools: no longer buoyed by ETF-driven accumulation, and simultaneously crushed by retail deleveraging.

Meanwhile, central bank commentary added another layer of uncertainty. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, a voting member of the FOMC, signalled his intent to advocate for a half-percentage-point rate cut at the upcoming meeting, a dovish stance that initially supported risk assets but now appears at odds with persistent inflation concerns.

Conversely, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda kept the door open for further rate hikes, stating that the BOJ would continue tightening if confidence in its economic outlook strengthens. These divergent policy paths contributed to volatility in global bond markets, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling 7 basis points to 3.97 per cent and the two-year yield dropping 8 basis points to 3.42 per cent. While lower yields typically support risk assets, the move this week reflected safe-haven demand rather than genuine monetary easing expectations, offering little comfort to crypto traders.

Even geopolitical developments weighed on sentiment. President Trump’s announcement that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin would meet in Hungary to discuss ending the war in Ukraine introduced new uncertainty into energy markets. Brent crude fell 1.37 per cent to US$61.06 per barrel on fears that a negotiated settlement could ease sanctions and flood the market with Russian oil. While lower energy prices might normally support risk assets by curbing inflation, the opaque nature of the proposed talks raised concerns about broader geopolitical realignments that could destabilise existing alliances and trade flows.

Looking ahead, the critical level to watch remains US$110,000 for Bitcoin. A weekly close below this threshold would likely invite a wave of algorithmic selling and accelerate the move toward US$100,000. A strong bounce could signal that the worst of the deleveraging is over. Traders should closely monitor two key indicators in the coming days: US Treasury yields and Bitcoin ETF flows.

A reversal in ETF inflows, particularly if they return to the US$2 billion-plus levels seen recently, could provide the buying pressure needed to stabilise prices. Similarly, a stabilisation or decline in the 10-year yield would ease financial conditions and potentially reignite risk appetite.

Despite the current turbulence, Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals remain robust. Network hash rate continues to hover near all-time highs, reflecting strong miner commitment and infrastructure investment. On-chain activity, while subdued during the selloff, has not shown signs of capitulation among long-term holders. This suggests that the current weakness is driven more by short-term leverage and macro sentiment than by a fundamental erosion of value.

In conclusion, the crypto market now navigates a perfect storm of external pressures and internal fragilities. The triple threat of trade war escalation, technical breakdown, and institutional pullback has exposed the limits of crypto’s decoupling narrative. Until macro conditions stabilise and leverage levels normalise, volatility will remain elevated, and the path to recovery will depend less on crypto-specific developments and more on the broader trajectory of global risk sentiment.

 

Source: https://e27.co/perfect-storm-trade-war-fears-leverage-unwind-and-institutional-retreat-crush-crypto-20251017/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j