Posts from the 'Op-Ed' Category

Gold soars, crypto bleeds: The fragile balance of a world on the brink of trade war

Gold soars, crypto bleeds: The fragile balance of a world on the brink of trade war

At the heart of this financial storm lies former President Donald Trump’s announcement of a sweeping 100 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, set to take effect on November 1, 2025. This policy declaration, made via Truth Social, has sent shockwaves through equities, commodities, and digital asset markets alike, effectively dismantling the fragile optimism that had built up around potential US-China trade détente.

Far from being an isolated political gesture, this move has functioned as a macroeconomic detonator, exposing the deep interconnections between traditional finance and the crypto economy, and triggering the largest single-day liquidation event in cryptocurrency history.

Markets had initially responded with cautious optimism to signals that both Washington and Beijing remained open to dialogue. US equities posted strong gains on Monday, with the Nasdaq surging over two per cent as AI-related semiconductor deals buoyed tech sentiment.

Simultaneously, gold prices soared to unprecedented levels, reaching US$4,106 per ounce, a figure corroborated by multiple market data sources that place the price of gold on October 14, 2025, firmly in the US$4,145 to US$4,154 range. This record-breaking rally in the ultimate safe-haven asset was not a sign of confidence but a clear signal of deep-seated anxiety about the future.

Investors were hedging against a dual threat: the immediate risk of a new trade war and the longer-term expectation of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to counter the resulting economic slowdown. The rise in the US Dollar Index to 99.27 further underscores this flight to safety, even as Brent crude oil held steady at US$63.80 per barrel, supported by the faint hope that high-level talks between the two superpowers might yet avert disaster.

However, this fragile equilibrium was shattered by the full implications of Trump’s tariff plan. The proposed 100 per cent duty, targeting critical sectors like semiconductors and e-commerce, is not merely a trade policy but a declaration of economic warfare. The market’s reaction was instantaneous and brutal.

Asian equities, particularly Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, plunged as the region braced for the direct impact on its export-driven economies. This risk-off sentiment bled directly into the cryptocurrency market, which has, for all the talk of “digital gold” and macro decoupling, proven to be acutely sensitive to shifts in the S&P 500, with its 24-hour correlation spiking to +0.52. The narrative that crypto had evolved into a separate, uncorrelated asset class evaporated overnight, revealing it to be just another risk asset in a global liquidity crunch.

The actual carnage, however, unfolded in the opaque world of crypto derivatives. The market had been swimming in a sea of excess leverage, with open interest having ballooned by 91 per cent month-over-month to a staggering US$947 billion. This created a highly combustible environment where any sharp price move could trigger a cascade of forced selling.

Trump’s announcement provided the spark. In a matter of hours, over US$19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, marking the largest single-day wipeout since the market turmoil of March 2020. The data is unequivocal: 87 per cent of these liquidations were long positions, indicating a market that was overwhelmingly bullish and entirely unprepared for a sudden reversal.

This “leverage flushout” was not a natural market correction but a systemic purge, where the architecture of perpetual futures contracts and high-leverage trading turned a macro shock into a self-reinforcing spiral of selling. The pain was not distributed evenly; altcoins bore the brunt of the selloff, as evidenced by the ETH/BTC ratio collapsing to a three-year low of 0.22, signaling a flight to the relative safety of Bitcoin within the crypto ecosystem itself.

This event represents a profound reset in market sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index’s plunge from “Greed” at 62 to “Neutral” at 42 is a stark indicator of the psychological shift. Traders who had grown complacent in a low-volatility environment were abruptly reminded of the inherent risks of a highly leveraged, globally interconnected market. The negative funding rates in perpetual futures markets, which flipped to incentivise short sellers, further cemented the bearish momentum.

Yet, within this chaos, there are signs of potential stabilisation. The premium on Tether (USDT) above its US$1 peg, currently at US$1.005, suggests that a significant pool of sidelined cash is waiting on the sidelines, ready to re-enter the market once the dust settles. This “dry powder” could fuel a powerful relief rally should there be any sign of de-escalation from either Washington or Beijing.

In conclusion, the current market downturn is not a simple correction but the result of a perfect storm. A geopolitical shockwave from a proposed 100 per cent tariff has collided with a structurally over-leveraged crypto market, creating a feedback loop of forced liquidations and panic selling. While technical indicators like the RSI-7 at 33.6 suggest the market is oversold and primed for a bounce, any sustainable recovery hinges on external factors beyond the market’s control.

The path forward depends almost entirely on the next moves in the US-China standoff. Should China respond with its own aggressive measures, such as curbing exports of critical rare earth minerals, the risk-off environment could deepen and prolong the pain. Conversely, a diplomatic breakthrough or even a softening of rhetoric could trigger a powerful short-covering rally.

Let’s see.

 

Source: https://e27.co/gold-soars-crypto-bleeds-the-fragile-balance-of-a-world-on-the-brink-of-trade-war-20251014/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Memecoins, mayhem, and market recovery: Crypto’s wild ride after the trade war jolt

Memecoins, mayhem, and market recovery: Crypto’s wild ride after the trade war jolt

On Friday, October 10, 2025, global markets absorbed a seismic shock when former President Donald Trump, now back in office, announced a sweeping new trade measure: a 100 per cent tariff on all imports from China, set to take effect on November 1. This announcement instantly reignited fears of a full-blown trade war, not merely as a continuation of past tensions but as a dramatic escalation rooted in the strategic control of critical resources.

The move came in direct response to China’s recent export restrictions on rare earth elements, which constitute roughly 70 per cent of the global supply and are indispensable to modern high-tech manufacturing. The interplay between these two actions, China’s export controls and America’s retaliatory tariffs, has created a volatile feedback loop that threatens to destabilise global supply chains, inflate consumer prices, and inject deep uncertainty into financial markets already navigating a fragile post-pandemic recovery.

The immediate market reaction was swift and severe. US equities plunged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.90 per cent, the S&P 500 dropping 2.71 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq shedding 3.56 per cent. Investors fled to safety, pushing the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note down by nine basis points to 4.05 per cent and the two-year yield to 3.52 per cent. The US dollar weakened, sliding 0.6 per cent to 98.98 on the Dollar Index, while gold, a traditional haven in times of geopolitical stress, jumped 0.8 per cent to US$4,007.39 per ounce.

Even crude oil markets reflected the anxiety, with Brent futures tumbling 3.8 per cent to US$62.73 per barrel. Across the Pacific, Asian indices mirrored the downturn, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 1.8 per cent and Japan’s Nikkei off one per cent , the latter compounded by domestic political instability. Yet, by Monday’s pre-market session, US equity futures hinted at a rebound, suggesting that some investors viewed Friday’s selloff as an overreaction or a buying opportunity ahead of the critical November 1 deadline.

The industries most vulnerable to this trade standoff span both strategic and consumer sectors. In the United States, high-tech manufacturing stands at the epicenter. Rare earth elements are essential for producing permanent magnets used in electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, defense systems like precision-guided munitions, and semiconductor fabrication equipment. Without reliable access to these materials, American companies face production delays, cost inflation, and potential loss of competitive edge.

Beyond tech, the new tariffs directly impact steel, aluminum, copper, furniture, and household appliances, sectors already burdened by existing duties that average 40 per cent . The cumulative tariff burden, now potentially reaching 130 per cent , would drastically raise input costs for manufacturers and, inevitably, retail prices for consumers. European economies, though not directly targeted, remain exposed through their deep integration into global supply chains, particularly in automotive and electronics, where components often traverse multiple borders before final assembly.

China’s imposition of export controls on rare earths is not merely an economic manoeuvre but a calculated geopolitical lever. By restricting the flow of these critical minerals, Beijing asserts its dominance over a supply chain it has methodically consolidated over decades. While China frames these controls as necessary for national security and environmental protection, Washington interprets them as coercive economic statecraft.

The irony is palpable: the US, which has long criticised China’s trade practices, now responds with tariffs so steep they risk self-inflicted economic harm. Yet, the asymmetry in dependency is stark. The US and its allies rely heavily on Chinese rare earths, whereas China’s economy, while vast, may be less immediately dependent on access to specific American software or services. This imbalance suggests that Trump’s tariff threat, while aggressive, may ultimately serve as a bargaining tactic, a high-stakes gambit to force China back to the negotiating table before the scheduled high-level diplomatic talks on November 1.

Indeed, early signals indicate that de-escalation remains possible. Despite the fiery rhetoric, behind-the-scenes channels appear active, with reports suggesting the US has already signaled willingness to negotiate. This aligns with historical patterns where tariff threats function more as leverage than as irreversible policy. Markets, ever forward-looking, may be pricing in this possibility, which could explain the tentative recovery in futures trading.

For investors, the key is vigilance without panic. The S&P 500’s technical support levels at 6400 and 6150 will serve as critical markers of market sentiment in the coming weeks. Additionally, the flood of third-quarter earnings reports from 36 S&P 500 companies will offer real-time insights into how corporate America is navigating these headwinds. Comments from bellwether firms in tech, manufacturing, and retail will be scrutinised for mentions of supply chain disruptions, cost pressures, or shifting sourcing strategies.

Meanwhile, the crypto market experienced its own drama in the wake of the announcement. Bitcoin plunged 17 per cent in what traders dubbed Black Friday, triggering over US$19 billion in liquidations as leveraged positions collapsed under the weight of panic selling. However, within 24 hours, the market staged a 4.86 per cent recovery, driven by a confluence of factors. Institutional activity provided a floor: Grayscale’s filing for a Bittensor (TAO) Trust signalled growing interest in AI-integrated blockchain projects, propelling TAO up 35 per cent .

Simultaneously, retail speculation surged on BNB Chain, where memecoins like 4 and SKYAI skyrocketed on viral narratives and “endorsements” from figures like CZ. Daily decentralised exchange volumes on BNB Chain hit US$963 million, reflecting intense, if speculative, participation. Yet this rebound remains fragile. Negative funding rates on perpetual futures eased selling pressure temporarily, but Bitcoin still trades seven per cent below its 30-day moving average. The looming US$1.07 trillion options expiry this Friday adds another layer of potential volatility.

In sum, the events of October 10 represent more than a policy announcement. They mark a pivotal moment in the evolving economic cold war between the world’s two largest economies. The tariff threat and rare earth controls are not isolated incidents but symptoms of a deeper decoupling trend that spans technology, security, and industrial policy. While short-term market gyrations reflect fear and uncertainty, the longer-term implications hinge on whether this confrontation hardens into permanent fragmentation or yields to pragmatic negotiation.

Investors should brace for continued turbulence but avoid knee-jerk reactions. The next three weeks, leading up to November 1, will be decisive. Corporate earnings, central bank commentary, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech, and any diplomatic overtures will shape the narrative far more than Friday’s headlines. In such an environment, patience, diversification, and a keen eye on technical and fundamental indicators remain the best strategies.

 

Source: https://e27.co/memecoins-mayhem-and-market-recovery-cryptos-wild-ride-after-the-trade-war-jolt-20251013/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Profit-taking and peril: Equities consolidate, bonds turn hawkish, and Bitcoin tests its limits

Profit-taking and peril: Equities consolidate, bonds turn hawkish, and Bitcoin tests its limits

The past week has seen a noticeable retreat in global risk appetite, with traders and institutional investors adopting a more cautious stance ahead of the third-quarter earnings season. This consolidation phase reflects a natural pause following a strong rally in equities, with market participants reassessing valuations and positioning themselves for potential volatility once corporate earnings reports begin to roll in.

US equities closed lower on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 0.5 per cent, the S&P 500 down 0.3 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite slipping 0.1 per cent. These modest declines underscore a broader theme of profit-taking rather than panic selling, suggesting that the market remains fundamentally sound but increasingly selective.

Adding to the uncertainty, key US economic data releases have been disrupted by the ongoing government shutdown. Weekly jobless claims and wholesale trade figures, initially scheduled for Thursday, remain delayed, depriving analysts of timely insights into labour market resilience and inventory trends. Market attention now shifts to Friday’s release of the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for October.

Given that consumer confidence often serves as a leading indicator of spending behaviour and economic momentum, this report could significantly influence near-term market direction, especially if it reveals a sharp deterioration in household outlooks amid persistent inflation concerns or rising borrowing costs.

Meanwhile, the bond market continues to reflect a nuanced outlook on monetary policy. US Treasury yields edged higher, with the benchmark 10-year yield climbing 2.1 basis points to 4.138 per cent and the two-year yield rising 1.2 basis points to 3.593 per cent. The modest uptick in yields suggests that investors are recalibrating expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts, possibly in response to resilient economic data or hawkish commentary from central bank officials. This dynamic places additional pressure on equities, particularly growth-oriented sectors that are sensitive to higher discount rates.

Currency and commodity markets also mirrored the prevailing risk-off mood. The US Dollar Index strengthened by 0.6 per cent to reach 99.54, benefiting from its traditional safe-haven status during periods of market caution. Conversely, gold retreated 1.6 per cent to US$3976 per ounce after briefly touching a record high.

The pullback in the precious metal appears driven by profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift in its appeal as a hedge against uncertainty. Similarly, Brent crude oil settled 1.6 per cent lower at US$65.22 per barrel, pressured by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the broader retreat from risk assets.

In Asia, equity markets displayed a mixed performance. The Chinese CSI 300 index surged 1.48 per cent on Thursday, its first trading day following the week-long National Day holiday. The rally was led by sectors tied to artificial intelligence and gold, reflecting both domestic policy optimism and global commodity trends.

However, early trading sessions on Friday showed more subdued activity, indicating that the initial post-holiday euphoria may be giving way to more cautious positioning. Notably, US equity index futures point to a higher open on Wall Street, suggesting that the recent dip may have created attractive entry points for bargain hunters.

Amid this backdrop, Bitcoin has emerged as a focal point of intense speculation and technical scrutiny. The cryptocurrency is currently trading above US$121,000, yet it faces mounting bearish pressure that could trigger a test of critical support levels. On Thursday, Bitcoin briefly dipped below the psychologically important US$120,000 mark, reaching an intraday low of US$119,810 before recovering slightly. This move, which represented a nearly three per cent decline in a single session, highlights the asset’s vulnerability despite its lofty valuation. Technical indicators reinforce this cautionary tone.

The hourly chart reveals a developing bearish trend line, with resistance forming around US$122,750. Bitcoin now trades below both the US$121,500 level and its 100-hour Simple Moving Average, signalling weakening short-term momentum. Immediate resistance sits at US$121,750, while the hourly MACD shows increasing strength in negative territory and the RSI has fallen below the pivotal 50 level, both classic signs of bearish dominance.

The derivatives market further underscores this fragile sentiment. Total derivatives volume plummeted by 15.24 per cent to US$478.15 trillion, while open interest in perpetual contracts declined by 1.29 per cent. This contraction coincided with Bitcoin’s drop below US$124,000 and triggered approximately US$700 million in liquidations.

The high leverage embedded in the system, evidenced by open interest standing at US$1.12 trillion, amplified the downside as leveraged positions were forcibly unwound. Traders appear to be reducing exposure in response to stretched technical conditions, with the 14-day RSI hovering near 69.88, just shy of overbought territory. Moreover, the spot-to-perpetuals trading ratio of 0.22 indicates that derivatives activity continues to dominate the market, rendering it especially susceptible to sharp swings and cascading liquidations.

Compounding Bitcoin’s challenges, the altcoin ecosystem is experiencing its own wave of selling pressure. New token launches such as ASTER and MIRA have faced immediate post-listing declines, driven by large-scale airdrops and token unlocks. ASTER’s Phase 2 airdrop released four per cent of its total supply, prompting whales to offload 28.3 million tokens and driving the price down by 10 per cent.

Similarly, MIRA’s circulating supply surged by 191 million tokens following its Binance listing, overwhelming market demand. These events highlight a recurring pattern in the crypto space: token unlocks often lead to immediate sell-offs, particularly when projects lack robust utility or sustainable demand drivers. The Altcoin Season Index has consequently fallen by 11.76 per cent, signalling a clear rotation of capital back into Bitcoin as investors seek relative safety within the digital asset class.

Regulatory uncertainty adds another layer of complexity. In the United States, Senate negotiations on comprehensive crypto market-structure legislation have stalled, with Democratic proposals on decentralised finance (DeFi) oversight meeting resistance from Republican lawmakers. This legislative gridlock prolongs the regulatory limbo that has long plagued the industry, creating headwinds for institutional adoption and altcoin valuations.

However, there remains a counterbalancing bullish narrative. Former President Donald Trump’s recent overtures toward establishing a US strategic Bitcoin reserve have reignited speculation about potential pro-crypto policies should he return to office. While purely aspirational at this stage, such rhetoric provides a psychological floor for long-term Bitcoin bulls who view regulatory clarity, even if delayed, as inevitable.

In sum, the current market environment reflects a delicate equilibrium between optimism and caution. Equities are consolidating after a strong run, bonds are pricing in a more hawkish Fed, and commodities are reacting to shifting risk sentiment. Bitcoin, despite its record-breaking price, shows clear signs of technical fatigue and structural vulnerability.

Yet, beneath the short-term turbulence lies a persistent belief in its long-term potential, particularly if it can overcome key resistance levels and navigate the evolving regulatory landscape. For now, investors remain in a holding pattern, awaiting the next catalyst, whether from corporate earnings, economic data, or policy developments, to determine the next major market move.

 

Source: https://e27.co/profit-taking-and-peril-equities-consolidate-bonds-turn-hawkish-and-bitcoin-tests-its-limits-20251010/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j