Posts from the 'Op-Ed' Category

The dovish inflection: Fed cuts, TikTok truce, and crypto crossroads set stage for market repricing

The dovish inflection: Fed cuts, TikTok truce, and crypto crossroads set stage for market repricing

The Federal Reserve’s meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday stands out as the centerpiece, with widespread expectations that the central bank will deliver its first rate cut of the year, potentially by 25 or even 50 basis points, to support economic growth amid lingering inflation concerns.

This move aligns with a broader global trend where policymakers grapple with balancing growth and price stability. The Bank of England wraps up its deliberations on Thursday, likely holding rates steady at 4.0 per cent while signaling future adjustments based on incoming data.

Over in Japan, the Bank of Japan continues its gradual normalisation path, and the Bank of Canada faces similar pressures to ease if economic indicators weaken further. These meetings dominate the calendar, and traders watch closely for any hints of coordinated action that could ripple through currency markets and equity valuations. This synchronised focus on monetary policy reflects a maturing global economy that prioritises data-driven decisions over knee-jerk reactions, which bodes well for sustained risk appetite in the coming months.

Amid this backdrop, a breakthrough in US-China relations added fuel to the positive sentiment. Negotiators from both sides hammered out a framework agreement to restructure TikTok’s ownership, transferring control to a US-dominated entity while addressing national security worries that have loomed over the app for years. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the deal during talks in Spain, noting that President Trump and President Xi Jinping plan to make a direct call on Friday to iron out the final details.

This development marks a significant step in thawing trade tensions, as it ties into larger discussions on tariffs, technology transfers, and supply chain resilience. China acknowledged a basic consensus on the ownership shift, which could prevent an outright ban on TikTok in the US and open doors for similar resolutions in other contentious areas like semiconductors and electric vehicles.

From where I sit, this agreement signals pragmatic leadership from both leaders, who recognise that escalating disputes hurt businesses on all sides. It could pave the way for broader trade pacts, boosting investor confidence and potentially lifting export-oriented sectors in both economies. The market’s initial reaction underscores this, with shares of tech firms tied to social media and advertising perking up on the news.

Wall Street captured this upbeat mood right from the opening bell on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.11 per cent, reflecting steady gains in blue-chip names like industrials and financials that stand to benefit from looser policy. The S&P 500 pushed higher by 0.47 percent.

In comparison, the Nasdaq Composite led the pack with a 0.94 percent advance, driven mainly by technology giants such as Apple and Nvidia, which continue to ride the wave of AI enthusiasm and anticipated lower borrowing costs. These record closes for the S&P and Nasdaq highlight the resilience of US equities, even as valuation concerns linger in some corners.

Tech stocks, in particular, thrived on the combination of the TikTok news, which alleviates regulatory overhangs, and the broader expectation of Fed easing that would reduce the cost of capital for growth-oriented companies. Investors rotated into these names, shrugging off minor profit-taking in overbought areas. I believe this performance sets a strong tone for the week, as any dovish tilt from the Fed could propel these indexes to new highs, though we must remain vigilant for any surprises in the dot plot or forward guidance that might temper the rally.

Fixed income markets told a complementary story, with US Treasury yields dipping slightly as participants bet on imminent rate relief. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield fell three basis points to settle at 4.03 per cent, while the two-year yield eased two basis points to 3.53 per cent, narrowing the yield curve inversion that has plagued markets for so long. This softening reflects bets that the Fed will act decisively to prevent a deeper slowdown, pulling longer-dated yields lower in anticipation of multiple cuts through year-end.

The curve’s steepening, with the 10-year minus two-year spread widening to 0.51 per cent, suggests growing comfort that recession risks are fading. These movements validate the market’s forward-looking nature, where bond traders often price in policy shifts before they occur, providing a buffer against volatility. Lower yields support equity valuations by making stocks more attractive relative to fixed income, and they ease mortgage rates, which could stimulate housing activity down the line. The US dollar followed suit, weakening against a basket of major currencies as the Dollar Index dropped 0.25 per cent to close at 97.30. This pullback stems from the softer yields and the prospect of a less hawkish Fed, which diminishes the greenback’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, gold seized the opportunity to shine, surging 1.1 per cent to reach US$3,680.80 per ounce, its strongest level in months. The metal benefits from the dollar’s retreat and the flight to quality ahead of policy uncertainty, with central banks worldwide adding to their reserves at a brisk pace. Brent crude oil also edged up 0.67 per cent to 67.44 dollars per barrel, as geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, raise supply disruption fears.

These commodity moves illustrate the interconnectedness of global risks, where energy security concerns amplify inflationary pressures that central banks must navigate. I see gold’s rally as particularly telling, not just a hedge against uncertainty but a bet on persistent loose policy that could erode fiat currencies over time.

Shifting to Asia, equities presented a mixed picture at the start of the week, building on Friday’s positive close but showing some divergence in early trading on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei index opened higher, supported by exporter gains from a weaker yen, while Australia’s ASX climbed on commodity strength. South Korea’s Kospi joined the uptrend, buoyed by semiconductor demand, though Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lagged slightly due to property sector woes.

Overall, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index hovered near record territory, reflecting spillover from Wall Street’s strength and optimism around global growth. US equity futures pointed to a mixed open stateside, with Dow contracts down marginally while Nasdaq futures held flat, suggesting traders await Fed cues before committing fully.

In my assessment, Asia’s resilience demonstrates its decoupling from pure US dependency, with domestic factors such as China’s stimulus hints playing a larger role. This regional buoyancy could be sustained if central bank outcomes align with expectations, fostering cross-border capital flows.

Turning to the cryptocurrency space, Next Technology Holding Inc., traded under the ticker NXTT, made headlines by filing a US$500 million shelf registration with the SEC to issue common stock over time. The company explicitly stated that a portion of the proceeds would fund Bitcoin acquisitions, aligning with a growing trend among public firms to diversify into digital assets as a treasury reserve. This move follows similar strategies by companies such as MicroStrategy, which have seen their stock prices correlate closely with Bitcoin’s performance. NXTT’s announcement sparked an immediate reaction, with shares dropping nearly three per cent in after-hours trading, likely due to dilution fears from the potential stock issuance. However, management emphasized that Bitcoin remains central to their long-term strategy, viewing it as a superior store of value amid inflationary environments. The filing allows for flexibility in one or more offerings, giving the board discretion over timing and allocation.

From my perspective, this step by NXTT underscores the mainstreaming of corporate crypto adoption, where firms leverage public markets to build substantial holdings. While short-term volatility is inevitable, such initiatives could drive Bitcoin’s price higher by increasing institutional demand, especially if regulatory clarity improves under the current administration.

Ethereum’s narrative offers a contrasting yet intriguing angle, trading around US$4,520 on Monday after a 2.01 per cent decline that underperformed the broader crypto market’s 0.96 percent drop. Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, argued in a recent note that digital asset treasuries focused on Ethereum hold the highest probability of long-term success compared to those piling into Bitcoin or Solana.

Kendrick points to Ethereum’s staking yields, which provide passive income streams that enhance sustainability for these corporate holders, unlike the more static holdings in Bitcoin. He warns of a potential shakeout among digital asset treasuries, where market capitalization compresses relative to net asset values, squeezing out weaker players. An mNAV above one indicates trading at a premium, signaling investor trust, but Ethereum’s ecosystem advantages, including layer-two scaling and DeFi dominance, position its treasuries for outperformance.

Kendrick maintains ambitious price targets, forecasting US$7,500 for Ethereum by year-end and US$25,000 by 2028, calling recent dips a prime entry point. I agree with this outlook, as Ethereum’s utility beyond mere speculation gives it an edge in a maturing crypto landscape, where yield generation becomes key for institutional viability.

Delving deeper into Ethereum’s challenges, the price breakdown below the US$4,500 support level triggered a cascade of stop-loss orders and invalidated the short-term bullish setup. The token slipped under the 100-hourly simple moving average and now tests the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$4,509.35. This technical fracture amplified selling pressure, with 24-hour trading volume spiking 41.34 per cent to US$39.26 dollars, confirming the bearish shift through heightened liquidity.

Algorithmic traders and leveraged positions exacerbated the move, leading to liquidations that fed the downward spiral. Looking ahead, a decisive close above US$4,509 might halt the bleeding and restore stability, but persistent failure could drag prices toward the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci level at US$4,255, opening the door to further downside. These patterns remind us that crypto markets remain prone to sharp reversals, driven by sentiment and technical triggers more than fundamentals in the near term. Ethereum’s robust mid-term prospects, anchored in network upgrades like Dencun and growing adoption in real-world assets, suggest this dip represents a temporary setback rather than a trend reversal.

Compounding the technical woes, Ethereum exchange-traded funds experienced significant outflows, with US$152.3 million pulled on August 1, marking the largest single-day exit in recent weeks according to SoSoValue data. BlackRock’s ETHA fund bore the brunt of these withdrawals, erasing some of the bullish momentum from July’s US$5.43 billion in net inflows.

This profit-taking by institutions highlights short-term caution, even as Ethereum boasts a 79 per cent gain over the past 90 days. Despite the outflows, ETF issuers collectively hold ETH6.3 million, valued at around US$26 billion, which speaks to underlying long-term conviction. Broader stablecoin supply hit all-time highs, indicating ample liquidity in the ecosystem. Still, it has not yet translated into aggressive Ethereum buying, possibly due to awaiting clearer regulatory signals or Fed outcomes. In my estimation, these ETF flows reveal the growing pains of crypto’s integration into traditional finance, where volatility tests investor resolve. However, the sheer scale of prior inflows demonstrates Ethereum’s appeal as a portfolio diversifier, and I expect renewed accumulation once macroeconomic headwinds ease.

Ethereum’s story intersects with larger themes in the digital asset world, where corporate treasuries, such as NXTT’s Bitcoin pivot and Standard Chartered’s Ethereum endorsement, highlight diverging strategies. Bitcoin remains the undisputed king for its simplicity and scarcity, but Ethereum’s yield-bearing features could attract more sophisticated players seeking returns beyond holding. The recent ETH price action and ETF dynamics underscore the need for patience amid bearish signals, yet the fundamentals point to resilience. Stablecoin liquidity at record levels signals latent capital ready to deploy, potentially fueling a rebound if technical supports hold. Geopolitical factors, such as the US-China deal, might indirectly benefit crypto by stabilising global trade and reducing uncertainty that drives safe-haven flows into assets like gold and Bitcoin.

In reflecting on this week’s developments, I see a market at an inflexion point, where central bank actions could unlock fresh upside across asset classes. The TikTok framework deal exemplifies how diplomacy can swiftly alter risk perceptions, much like how corporate crypto moves challenge traditional finance norms. While Ethereum faces near-term headwinds from technical breaks and outflows, its structural advantages position it for outsized gains in a rate-cutting environment favouring growth assets.

Overall, global sentiment leans positive, with equities, commodities, and cryptos aligned for potential advances if policymakers deliver as anticipated. Investors should focus on diversification, monitor yield curves and ETF flows, and trade headlines for cues. This convergence of events reminds us that markets thrive on clarity, and with major decisions imminent, the stage is set for a dynamic week ahead.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-dovish-inflection-fed-cuts-tiktok-truce-and-crypto-crossroads-set-stage-for-market-repricing-20250916/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

S&P at record highs, Bitcoin at US$115K: Why this convergence signals a new market era

As markets wrap up the weekend on September 15, investors face a pivotal moment that blends traditional equity strength with cryptocurrency resilience. The S&P 500 sits near record highs around 6,584, a level that reflects robust corporate earnings and lingering optimism about economic policy shifts, yet technical indicators hint at an impending pullback. Bitcoin hovers steadily at about US$115,000, recovering from a brief dip after touching US$116,800 last Friday, and analysts such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee fuel speculation of a surge to US$200,000 by year-end.

I see this convergence as a sign of maturing markets where risk assets increasingly move in tandem, driven by shared sensitivities to Federal Reserve actions. While the broader economy shows signs of cooling inflation and steady growth, the interplay between Wall Street giants and digital currencies underscores the need for thoughtful positioning. Households build cash reserves, bond markets price in rate relief, and global trends favor the United States, but short-term volatility looms large. In my view, this setup rewards patient diversification over concentrated bets on high-flyers, as corrections could test even the strongest performers.

The S&P 500 has delivered impressive gains through much of 2025, climbing over 14 per cent year-to-date and pushing past 6,500 in recent sessions. Companies in the index continue to surprise on the upside during earnings seasons, with the second quarter of 2025 marking the 15th out of the last 16 periods where results exceeded analyst forecasts.

Earnings growth hit around 7.6 per cent for the quarter, led by technology and financial sectors that capitalised on resilient consumer spending and easing macro pressures. Tech firms, in particular, drove much of this momentum, with cloud computing and artificial intelligence investments paying off in higher revenues. I find this pattern encouraging because it demonstrates corporate America’s adaptability in a high-interest-rate environment that persisted longer than many anticipated. However, the index’s concentration in a handful of names raises red flags for sustainability.

The so-called Magnificent Seven stocks, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla, now account for over 30 per cent of the S&P 500’s total weight, up sharply from just 12 percent eight years ago. These leaders propelled nearly half of the index’s returns in 2024 and continue to dominate in 2025, with Nvidia alone serving as a cornerstone for many portfolios due to its explosive growth in AI chip demand.

Nvidia’s role stands out as both a boon and a cautionary tale. The company reported stellar quarterly results that reinforced its position in the AI boom, with revenues surging due to increased demand for data centers. Investors flock to it for its momentum, but I advocate spreading exposure because over-reliance on one stock amplifies risks from sector-specific headwinds like supply chain disruptions or regulatory scrutiny on tech monopolies. The Magnificent Seven’s profit growth, while strong, has not matched their market cap expansion, creating a valuation stretch that could unwind in a downturn.

Enter the “Next 20” stocks, the subsequent largest companies in the S&P 500 by market cap, which span more balanced sectors such as industrials, healthcare, and consumer goods. These names have lagged the top tier but offer compelling alternatives with steadier earnings profiles and lower volatility. For instance, firms in utilities and materials beat earnings expectations at rates above 70 per cent in the recent quarter, signaling broad-based health.

In my opinion, shifting some allocation here makes sense for long-term stability, especially as AI adoption remains nascent among S&P 500 companies. Surveys show only about 11 per cent of these firms plan to implement AI tools in the next six months, leaving room for gradual productivity gains but also highlighting that the hype has outpaced reality in many boardrooms.

Technically, the S&P 500 appears overstretched after its rally, with moving averages and momentum indicators flashing warning signs. The index trades in a rising channel on medium-term charts, but negative divergence in the MACD suggests weakening upside momentum relative to price action. Key support levels cluster around 6,144 and 6,000, near the 200-day moving average, where buyers could step in during a correction.

Recent sessions show a slight pullback of 0.05 per cent to 6,584, but broader patterns point to a five to 10 per cent dip as funds rebalance and profit-taking intensifies. Historically, September ranks as the weakest month for the index, averaging negative returns since 1950, often exacerbated by fiscal year-end adjustments and seasonal liquidity drains.

I expect this tradition to hold, particularly with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting just two days away on September 17. Traders price in a near-certain 25 basis point cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 4 to 4.25 percent, followed by two more reductions in October and December.

Such moves typically spark initial volatility, as markets digest the “sell the news” reaction before embracing looser policy. US households, flush with cash from prior savings, position well to weather any turbulence, and widening bond spreads indicate that much of the anticipated relief already factors into prices.

Defensive sectors face heavy short interest as capital chases growth and momentum plays, but I believe a rebound awaits if drawdowns materialise. Investors pile into technology and consumer discretionary, where AI and e-commerce thrive, yet utilities and staples trade at discounts that could attract value hunters.

Globally, the US asserts dominance in equities, bolstering the dollar’s strength against peers and drawing inflows from emerging markets grappling with slower recoveries. AI’s low penetration rate among S&P firms tempers the narrative of an immediate revolution, but projections from analysts such as those at Morgan Stanley suggest it could unlock nearly US$920 billion in annual value through efficiency gains and innovation. Tech giants plan to pour US$371 billion into data centers this year, a figure that underscores the sector’s forward momentum.

Still, broader adoption lags, with only 20 per cent of S&P 500 boards featuring AI expertise, per recent disclosures. In my assessment, this gradual rollout favours diversified portfolios that capture upside without betting the farm on unproven technologies. The US equity market’s primacy reinforces a pro-risk environment, but global themes, such as European energy transitions and Asian manufacturing shifts, offer complementary opportunities beyond the Magnificent Seven.

Turning to Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency maintains poise around US$115,000, a level that reflects institutional maturation amid traditional market parallels. After peaking at US$116,800 on Friday, it settled with minimal fluctuation over the weekend, underscoring stability in a high-volatility asset class. Technical charts reveal solid support at US$114,000, tested but held firm, while resistance looms at US$116,200 and US$116,500.

The relative strength index hovers overbought at 81.7, signaling potential consolidation as traders book profits from the seven-day rally. I view this as a healthy breather in an otherwise bullish setup, especially with the broader crypto market up 5.25 per cent weekly despite a 0.9 per cent daily dip. Institutional interest surges, evidenced by robust inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which saw US$642 million net additions on Friday alone and over US$2.3 billion for the week.

This marks the largest weekly haul in two months, contrasting with earlier outflows and highlighting a rotation toward Bitcoin from other assets. Ethereum ETFs, meanwhile, pulled in US$624 million, but Bitcoin dominates the narrative as companies add it to balance sheets and forecast higher allocations for 2025.

Tom Lee’s bold call from Fundstrat captures the optimism swirling around Bitcoin. In a recent CNBC appearance, he linked the asset’s trajectory to monetary policy, noting its sensitivity to rate cuts and its historical strength in the fourth quarter.

Lee predicts Bitcoin could double to US$200,000 by December, a move he deems feasible given easing Fed actions and supply dynamics from the halving cycle. I appreciate his data-driven approach, drawing on past rallies where Bitcoin gained 20 to 35 per cent in Q4 bull years, but tempering enthusiasm with realism. Profit-taking pressures mount, as derivatives volume drops 27 per cent, and events like the YU stablecoin depeg to US$0.20 after a US$30 million hack inject caution across the sector. Macro jitters ahead of the Fed decision could trigger a “sell the news” event, even with 93 per cent odds of a cut.

Institutional rotations exhibit nuance, with US$3.8 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows over 30 days offset by gains in Ethereum, suggesting diversified crypto interest. Yet, Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500, around 0.3 to 0.6, implies shared downside risks in a correction. Social media buzz on platforms such as X echoes this sentiment, with traders eyeing a US$110,000 to US$130,000 range by month-end but warning of September’s historical weakness, during which Bitcoin has averaged five to seven per cent losses in seven of the last ten years.

Structured products linked to select Magnificent Seven names remain attractive for targeted exposure, offering leveraged upside with defined risks. Investors should diversify into the Next 20 and global equities to mitigate concentration dangers, as no major black swans lurk but sharp corrections persist.

Key events demand attention: the FOMC on September 17, where Chair Powell’s tone could sway sentiment, and the Bank of Japan meeting on September 19, potentially influencing yen flows and carry trades. From my perspective, the macro tailwinds favor risk assets, but overextension in equities and crypto calls for prudence. US dominance and AI’s promise sustain the bull case, yet low adoption rates and seasonal patterns urge balance.

Households’ cash hoards provide a buffer, and rate cuts, largely priced in, set the stage for volatility followed by relief. Bitcoin’s institutional embrace cements its role as a portfolio diversifier, potentially catching up to gold and stocks in a catch-up trade. Overall, I remain constructively optimistic, viewing dips as opportunities to build balanced positions that weather near-term storms and capture year-end rallies. Markets evolve, and those who adapt thrive.

 

Source: https://e27.co/sp-at-record-highs-bitcoin-at-us115k-why-this-convergence-signals-a-new-market-era-20250915/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The great divergence: How US inflation, jobless claims, and crypto charts are clashing ahead of the Fed’s big decision

The great divergence: How US inflation, jobless claims, and crypto charts are clashing ahead of the Fed’s big decision

As the calendar flips to September 12, 2025, financial markets around the world hum with a mix of optimism and caution, driven by recent economic data that has solidified expectations for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy moves.

Global risk sentiment remains broadly positive, with Asian equities edging close to all-time highs in early trading sessions, buoyed by encouraging signals from US inflation figures and labour market indicators. Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets have taken the lead in this upward push, reflecting renewed investor confidence amid hopes for monetary easing.

Meanwhile, US stock futures point to a flat opening, suggesting a pause after the previous day’s gains, where the S&P 500 climbed 0.9 per cent, the Nasdaq advanced 0.7 per cent, and the Dow Jones surged 1.4 per cent. This rally in US equities stems largely from growing anticipation that the Fed will deliver an interest rate cut at its September 17 meeting. This move could inject fresh liquidity into risk assets and extend the current uptrend.

Looking into the latest US economic releases, the August consumer price index revealed a nuanced picture of inflation dynamics. Core prices, which strip out volatile food and energy components, increased by 0.3 per cent monthly and 3.1 per cent year-over-year, aligning closely with economist projections and signalling that underlying inflationary pressures remain contained but persistent.

Headline CPI ticked up by 0.4 per cent in August, marking an acceleration from prior months and pushing the annual rate to 2.9 per cent, the highest since early 2025. This uptick can be attributed in part to businesses preemptively passing on costs related to anticipated tariffs under the Trump administration’s trade policies, which have begun to ripple through supply chains and consumer goods pricing.

Concurrently, weekly jobless claims surged to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years and exceeding market forecasts, highlighting emerging softness in the labor market. This jump in unemployment filings, combined with a slight rise in the jobless rate to 4.2 per cent in August, underscores a weakening employment landscape that has pulled the Fed in conflicting directions: persistent inflation argues for caution, while labor market fragility demands stimulus.

Despite these tensions, the data has cemented bets on a rate reduction, with markets pricing in a 100 per cent chance of at least a 25 basis point cut next week, and roughly 50 per cent odds of a more aggressive 50 basis point move.

Bond markets have reacted accordingly, with US Treasuries posting gains overnight. The 10-year yield dipped 2.5 basis points to 4.02 per cent, while the 2-year yield edged down 0.2 basis points to 3.54 per cent, reflecting investor flight to safety amid the mixed economic signals. The US Dollar Index consolidated with a modest 0.3 per cent decline, as traders weighed the implications of looser policy on currency strength.

Commodities presented a more varied picture: gold slipped 0.2 per cent, maintaining its role as a hedge against uncertainty, but Brent crude tumbled 1.7 per cent below US$67 per barrel, pressured by ongoing oversupply fears from OPEC+ production and sluggish global demand. These movements illustrate a market in transition, where the promise of Fed easing supports equities and bonds, yet commodity weakness hints at underlying economic headwinds that could temper the enthusiasm.

Turning to the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin has captured particular attention with its 1.55 per cent rise over the past 24 hours, outpacing the broader crypto market’s 1.83 per cent gain. This daily uptick aligns with a weekly advance of 3.82 per cent, though it trails behind monthly and quarterly averages, down 3.1 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively.

As of September 12, 2025, Bitcoin hovers around US$114,290, having rebounded from recent lows near US$111,500 but still testing resistance at US$115,000. This price action occurs against a backdrop of several bullish catalysts. Foremost among them is the heightened probability of Fed rate cuts, which historically boost risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies by lowering borrowing costs and encouraging investment in high-growth sectors. Markets now assign 50 per cent odds to a 50 basis point cut on September 17, a scenario that could flood the system with liquidity and propel Bitcoin higher.

Additionally, regulatory tailwinds from the SEC’s proposed generic listing standards for crypto ETFs promise to streamline approvals for altcoin products, potentially accelerating inflows and broadening market participation. The agency has already greenlit in-kind creations and redemptions for crypto exchange-traded products in August 2025, aligning them with traditional commodity funds and reducing operational frictions. Complementing this, stablecoin reserves on exchanges have swelled to a record US$70 billion, indicating ample dry powder for buying but also raising concerns about potential selling pressure if sentiment sours.

However, beneath this surface buoyancy lurk technical signals that suggest Bitcoin’s uptrend may be faltering. The cryptocurrency has formed a rising wedge pattern on its charts, characterised by two ascending and converging trendlines that often precede bearish reversals. As these lines approach their apex, the risk of a breakdown intensifies, with analysts warning of a potential drop below US$100,000 if support levels give way. The Average Directional Index, a key trend strength indicator, has retreated from a year-to-date peak of 60 to around 24, pointing to diminishing momentum in the current rally.

Compounding this, the Relative Strength Index exhibits a bearish divergence, where the oscillator forms a descending channel even as prices climb, a setup that frequently heralds strong downward breakouts. Recent analyses highlight this divergence on weekly timeframes, with RSI flashing triple bearish signals that echo historical fragility points in equities, such as the 1998 LTCM crisis or the 2008 financial meltdown.

Moreover, Bitcoin’s price action mirrors patterns from past cycles, including a potential double top reminiscent of 2021, which preceded a 77 per cent correction. September’s historical underperformance, averaging negative returns since 2013, adds another layer of caution, with some projections eyeing a dip to US$108,802 or even US$88,000 in a deeper pullback.

Sentiment on social platforms like X reflects this dichotomy, with users debating the Fed cut’s implications. Some warn of a “sell the news” event, where Bitcoin rallies in the lead-up to the announcement only to crash afterward, as the cut, whether 25 or 50 basis points, may already be fully priced in by participants.

Posts highlight JPMorgan’s caution that easing might not trigger a uniform risk-on surge, potentially sparking a broader market dump. Others point to whale selling pressure, with over 100,000 BTC offloaded recently amid frozen corporate buys, and miner outflows turning bearish post-halving.

Bullish voices counter with observations of institutional accumulation, including 1,417 entities holding over 1,000 BTC each, and daily corporate purchases averaging 1,400 BTC, signaling long-term confidence. Threads discuss Bitcoin’s resilience, noting hidden bullish divergences in RSI near oversold levels and a flattening MACD, which could catalyse a rebound if liquidity flows resume. One prominent analyst frames the setup as a consolidation phase, with the Network Value to Transactions ratio at 1.51, well below overvaluation thresholds, suggesting sustainable growth driven by utility rather than speculation.

In my view, while the bearish technical indicators and historical September weakness pose genuine short-term risks, Bitcoin’s trajectory remains fundamentally upward over the longer horizon. The Fed’s impending cut, even if it triggers a knee-jerk selloff, will ultimately enhance liquidity in a way that benefits high-beta assets, such as cryptocurrencies, especially as dollar weakness from policy easing drives capital into alternatives like Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold.”

Regulatory progress on ETFs, coupled with surging stablecoin reserves, underscores growing institutional adoption that could absorb any temporary dips. Historical parallels, such as post-halving Septembers leading to Q4 surges, suggest this correction might be a buying opportunity rather than a prelude to collapse.

That said, a failure to hold US$113,500 support could accelerate downside toward US$100,000, validating the wedge breakdown. Investors should monitor the Fed’s decision closely: a 50 basis point surprise might ignite a rally to US$120,000, as some inverse head-and-shoulders patterns imply, while a cautious 25 basis point trim could extend the choppiness.

Overall, the interplay of macro easing and crypto-specific tailwinds tilts the scales toward optimism, provided global growth holds steady amid tariff uncertainties. This moment feels like a pivotal inflection point, where patience and data-driven positioning will separate winners from those caught in volatility’s grip.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-great-divergence-how-us-inflation-jobless-claims-and-crypto-charts-are-clashing-ahead-of-the-feds-big-decision-20250912/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j