Posts from the 'Quoted' Category

真相：近半年超80％幣安新代幣跌破上市價，僅五個例外…牛市邏輯變了？

真相：近半年超80％幣安新代幣跌破上市價，僅五個例外…牛市邏輯變了？

比特幣現貨 ETF 的推出、減半敘事，BTC 在今年 3 月創下 73,000 美元的歷史新高，投資者熱情來到新一波高潮，眾多項目方也趁此機會陸續發行其代幣，試圖搶佔市場。

然而，這些新的代幣往往波動劇烈，多數已成為 VC 與項目方們收割散戶的工具。

幣安近 6 個月上新的代幣僅 5 個實現上漲

據加密貨幣研究員 Flow 昨（17）日在社交平台 X 上的統計顯示，全球最大交易所幣安（Binance）在過去 6 個月內上架的所有新代幣，其中超過 80％ 的代幣目前都相較其上市當日的價格下跌不少，僅有五個代幣實現了增長。

它們分別是：迷因幣 MEME（8.5%）、比特幣銘文 ORDI（+261.9％）、Solana 生態的 JUP（+58.46％）和 JTO（+62.08％），以及 Solana 上的狗係迷因幣 WIF（+117.69％）：

縱觀過去 6 個月在最大的中心化交易所幣安上市的所有代幣，我們注意到超過 80％ 的代幣較上市時的價格有所下降，唯一的例外是 MEME、ORDI、JUP、JTO 和 WIF。

该表显示了币安今年迄今新上市的表现

對此，Flow 評論稱：

項目方在 CEX 上以盡可能高的 FDV 推出其代幣，這為 VC 和內部人士的退出提供了流動性。結果就是：新幣不再是偉大的投資。

如果你在幣安每次上新時都投資同等的資金購買新幣，那麼目前你的總資產已經縮水了超過 18％。

所以，幣安上新推出的代幣已經不再是好的投資標的，它們所有的上漲潛力都已經被剝奪了。散戶由於缺乏優質的早期投資機會，而被迫成為了 VC 和項目方退出的流動性。

在很多方面，遊戲都被操縱了。

分析師：市場總體缺乏上漲動力

另外，區塊鏈專家暨《NFT：從零到英雄》一書的作者 Anndy Lian 也對此發表觀點，表示當前的市場環境充滿了挑戰：

幣安上市的很多項目都需要較長的增長週期，目前的加密市場總體來說還是缺乏動力，但某些山寨幣仍在上漲趨勢中。

Lian 繼續補充，指出迷因幣成為了近期散戶投資的熱點：

迷因幣不同於其他的山寨幣，由散戶的興趣作為主要推動力。

從 ORDI 和 WIF 的增長歷史就可以看出這一點，事實上，如果你去看一下成交量，排名前六的加密貨幣基本都是迷因幣。

前十大幣種狀況如何？

值得注意的是，比特幣已經多次刷新了歷史高點，但排名前十的主流代幣中，多數還沒有達到 2021 年牛市的水平：

  • ETH 上漲動力疲軟：由於生態創新式微，加上美國 SEC 在以太坊現貨 ETF 上的模糊態度，導致以太坊在本輪牛市中，還沒有大規模爆發，與比特幣的匯率甚至還多次下落至低點；
  • BNB 新幣挖礦引幣價上漲：BNB 同時作為 BSC 鏈的治理代幣和幣安交易所的平台幣，在今年由於幣安持續上新新幣挖礦項目，也導致其代幣價格持續上漲，多次突破 600 美元大關，但距其歷史高點還有段小距離。
  • SOL 東山再起：作為受到 FTX 交易所倒閉巨大影響的 Solana，在今年因其生態繁榮發展，包括 Saga 手機、迷因幣熱潮等，激勵其幣價從去年的幾十美元上漲至目前的 170 美元。
  • TON 成黑馬公鏈：背靠 Telegram 這一龐大通訊軟體的 TON，在今年可謂動作頻頻，不僅多次與 Telegram 產生聯動，還依靠其生態發展，賺足了眼球，幣價也較去年 Q4 上漲了數倍，是十大代幣中，唯一有突破歷史新高的項目。

 

 

Source: https://www.blocktempo.com/80-of-new-coins-on-binance-are-down/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Over 80% of recent Binance token listings are bleeding red

Over 80% of recent Binance token listings are bleeding red

Over 80% of newly listed cryptocurrencies are in the red on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange in terms of trading volume.

More than 80% of the tokens listed during the past six months have fallen in value since their listing, raising concerning implications for investors looking for the newest cryptocurrencies.

From the 31 analyzed tokens, only five coins have appreciated, including Memecoin (MEME), Ordi (ORDI), the Solana-based Jupiter (JUP) token, Jito (JTO) and Dogwifhat (WIF), according to pseudonymous crypto researcher Flow’s May 17 X post:

Binance tokens listed during the past six months. Source: Flow

The fact that over 80% of newly-launched tokens are in the red signals a challenging market environment, according to Anndy Lian, intergovernmental blockchain expert and author of NFT: From Zero to Hero.

Lian told Cointelegraph that the current state of the cryptocurrency market has been described as calm, with certain altcoins still trending despite a general lack of momentum overall. He added:

“Many of the projects listed on Binance may have a longer period of growth, the growth may not be instant like the previous bull market.”

However, the new tokens on Binance are listed with an average fully diluted valuation of over $4.2 billion despite not having a real user base. This can significantly limit their upside potential, according to pseudonymous researcher Flow:

“More often than not, tokens launching on Binance are not investment vehicles anymore – all their upside potential is already taken away. Instead, they represent exit liquidity for insiders who capitalize on retail lack of access to quality early investment opportunities.”

Memecoins: the flavor of the month for retail investors

Despite having no venture capital backing, the Ordi token was the most profitable, up over 261% since its launch, while controversial memecoin Dogwifhat took second place, with an over 117% price increase.

Retail interest was the main factor driving memecoin growth, which can operate independently from the altcoin market segment, according to Lian, who told Cointelegraph:

“Since some of them are long-term hodl, many of the retail investors swarmed to memecoin. You can see that from the performance of MEME and WIF. In fact, if you looked the the trading volume. Six of the top trading coins are memes.”

Further showcasing the hype around memecoins, Pepe hit a new all-time high of above $0.000010 on May 13, a day after Keith Gill — the man widely credited with kicking off the 2021 GameStop short squeeze — returned to social media.

Capitalizing on the retail hype, one savvy Pepe trader turned $3,000 into $46 million within a month during Pepe’s rise to its recent all-time high.

 

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/over-80-binance-token-listings-loss-red

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Ethereum ETF: Investors Wait For May 23 Full of FUD

Ethereum ETF: Investors Wait For May 23 Full of FUD

May 23, 2024 is a key date for Ethereum (ETH) investors across the world. On this day, the U.S. Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC) will announce its verdict on VanEck’s spot ETH exchange traded funds (ETF) application.

A denial of VanEck’s spot ETH ETF application will likely mean that similar applications from Ark Investment, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, Invesco Galaxy, and BlackRock will also be rejected later in the year.

An approval from the SEC will likely spark a rally in ETH prices — similar to the ETF-supported Bitcoin (BTC) bull run we saw earlier in 2024.

Key Takeaways

  • VanEck is the first of many spot ETH ETF applicants.
  • The legal status of ETH as a commodity or security continues to be a hot topic of debate.
  • Bitcoin maxi Michael Saylor says altcoins will never get spot ETFs and commodity status.
  • Anndy Lian says ETF rejection could lead to short-term ETH price volatility and decrease in price.
  • Markus Thielen is comfortable holding a short position in ETH.

Pessimism Lingers over SEC Approval for Spot Ethereum ETF

The current mood regarding the launch of spot ETH ETFs in the U.S. is largely pessimistic.

The meeting between the SEC and spot ETH ETF applicants has been “one-sided” so far, insiders told Reuters. According to those who participated in the discussions, the SEC has not discussed “substantive details about the proposed products” nor asked issuers about concerns like they generally do when ETF applications are filed.

Crypto market observers will know that dealing with crypto skeptic SEC chair Gary Gensler is never a straightforward task. Even the recently approved spot BTC ETFs had to endure rejections of over 20 applications from the SEC between 2018 and 2023.

Given the fact that VanEck’s spot ETH ETF application is the first of its kind, CEO Jan van Eck expressed his pessimism at the Paris Blockchain Week crypto event, saying:

“We were the first to file as well for Ethereum in the U.S., and we and Cathy Wood (CEO of Ark Invest), are kind of the first in line for May, I guess, to probably be rejected.”

The Legal Status of ETH Hinders ETF Hopes

Additionally, the legal status of ETH continues to be a hot topic of debate. Despite the initial ETF denials, bitcoin never faced questions on its status as a commodity.

Anndy Lian, a governmental blockchain advisor and expert, told Techopedia:

“BTC has been generally recognized as a commodity by various regulatory bodies, including the CFTC. However, the SEC has not provided a clear stance on ETH’s classification, and recent comments by SEC Chair Gary Gensler have not explicitly categorized ETH as a commodity, which adds to the uncertainty.”

Adding to the fear, uncertainty and doubt was Bitcoin maximalist and co-founder of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, who said that it will soon be “very clear” that Ethereum is deemed a security not a commodity when the spot ETH ETF gets rejected in May 2024.

“After that you are going to see that Ethereum, BNB, Solana, Ripple, Cardano – everything down the stack – is just a crypto asset security unregistered. None of them will ever be wrapped by a spot ETF,” Saylor added.

 

“Wen Spot ETH ETF?”

While the growing consensus suggests that VanEck’s application will get rejected on May 23, 2024, industry insiders believe that a spot ETH ETF will eventually be approved later.

We look at the long road to the approval of spot BTC ETF as our reference.

Before its approval in January 2024, the SEC rejected every application placed before it. It was only when crypto fund manager Grayscale won a lawsuit against the SEC that spot BTC ETFs were finally approved in the U.S.

In their petition, Grayscale had argued that the regulation and surveillance that BTC futures ETF traded under were proof that spot BTC ETFs can be traded without fraud and manipulation.

Now market experts believe that the spot ETH ETFs will have to go down the same route to gain SEC approval — litigation.

“The template is likely to be similar to Bitcoin: with futures-based Ethereum ETFs already approved, the SEC (if it denies the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs) is likely to face a legal challenge and eventually lose,” said JPMorgan analysts in a report, as reported by The Block.

What Next for ETH?

Short-term Price Volatility

The market had hoped that positive developments on the spot ETH ETF front would be a major catalyst for ETH prices in 2024.

But now, dashed hopes of ETH ETF approvals coming as early as May 2024 has resulted in bearish ETH price movement (-24%) over the last two months, as of May 10, 2024.

With ETH continuing to underperform large-cap peers such as BTC, Solana (SOL) and BNB in 2024, the second-largest cryptocurrency will have to look for other market catalysts as it plays catch up.

“A rejection could lead to short-term price volatility and possibly a decrease in price as the market adjusts to the news,”  Lian told Techopedia.

Lian added:

“Even if the SEC rejects the spot ETH ETF, Ethereum may not run out of market catalysts. Other potential catalysts for a bull run could include technological advancements, increased adoption, further integration into DeFi, RWA, and the broader crypto market dynamics.”

ETH is the ‘Basket Case of 2024’

Elsewhere, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, called Ethereum the “basket case” of this crypto cycle.

Thielen wrote in an email note to investors that this research firm was “very bullish” on Ethereum earlier in the year, but their view turned bearish when they noticed a sharp decline in Ethereum gas fees that “signaled (near) zero demand for transactions with ETH.”

Thielen also added falling staking yield (2.9% on Lido at the time of writing) and higher on-chain Treasury yields (5.1%) will result in less demand for ETH as “more people realize this.”

“Right now, we would be more comfortable holding a short position in ETH than a long one in BTC as Ethereum’s fundamentals are fragile, which is not yet reflected in ETH prices,” said Thielen.

The Bottom Line

The U.S. SEC under Chair Gensler is known for its hardball approach towards the crypto industry. The securities watchdog has filed multiple lawsuits against prominent crypto companies and personalities including CZ, Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, and Uniswap, over the past year.

Just like Grayscale’s lawsuit, which paved the way for spot BTC ETFs in the US, maybe only a mirrored approach can get spot ETH ETFs across the finish line in 2024.

 

Source: https://www.techopedia.com/ethereum-etf-decision

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j