Cardano futures: ADA price pressure to persist amid FTX fallout

Cardano futures: ADA price pressure to persist amid FTX fallout

The recent FTX crisis has caused a whirl in the crypto world with many investors pulling out their assets from the market that’s already dominated by bearish sentiment.

Cardano’s ADA, has been on a bear run in 2022, losing over 89.8% of its gains since the all-time high of $2.9706 on 3 September 2021 to $0.3032 on 21 November 2021.

How do Cardano futures work and where could the cardano futures price be headed? Read on…

What are cardano futures?

Cryptocurrency futures are contracts between two parties that are betting on the future price of a digital asset. When traders purchase a cryptocurrency’s futures contract, they gain exposure without owning the underlying coin, agreeing to pay a certain price for the asset in future. When the futures contract expires, however, the trader has to settle it – in other words, they buy the coin.

The Cardano blockchain was launched in 2017 as a third-generation cryptocurrency platform. It has a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism and was designed to be a more scalable, sustainable and interoperable version of Ethereum. For this reason, the blockchain’s supporters labelled Cardano the “Ethereum killer”.

In September 2021, Cardano gained smart contract capability, allowing for the creation of decentralised apps (dApps), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), games, new cryptocurrencies and more.

ADA is the blockchain’s native cryptocurrency named after the 19th century mathematician Ada Lovelace. The coins are used as a secure exchange of value and to pay for transaction fees

Cardano futures, therefore, are contracts between two parties that have agreed to buy and sell a specific amount of ADA at a specified price. Cardano futures are often known as Cardano perpetual futures or cardano perpetual swaps.

Traders who purchase ADA futures are betting that the price of the cryptocurrency will surge in the future. If that happens, they will profit from the price increase. If the price of Cardano falls, however, they will lose money.

Cardano futures history

Cardano futures started trading on Binance at the end of January 2021. They enjoyed bullish momentum, jumping by more than 4,100% between January and May 2021. The surge came as Cardano continued development of its smart contract capabilities and launched a peer-to-peer testnet to a small group of users.

After a slight dip in July 2021, the ADA futures price climbed to the all-time high of $2.9706 on 3 September 2021. The rally came ahead of the blockchain’s Alonzo hard fork, which introduced smart contract capabilities to Cardano.

ADA futures price, January 2021 – November 2022

Following the bull run, the ADA futures contract dipped by more than 35% by 27 October 2021 and continued on a downward trend.

Cardano futures price fell  to $0.3032 on 21 November 2022 amid negative market sentiment. The recent news on the downfall of the FTX crypto exchange and its native FTT  token added to the bearish price action.

What is driving cardano futures?

The collapse of the FTX crypto exchange affected many major cryptocurrencies, cooling investor sentiment. CoinMarketCap data showed that the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation fell below $800bn on 11 November, when FTX filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the lowest level since early 2021.

Total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies, 2016 – 2022

“Although aftereffects of the FTX shock will still likely surface at some point and the industry will have to adopt more financially transparent operation and come under stricter regulatory oversight, the worst part may have passed,” Bitbank crypto market analyst Yuya Hasegawa said in his weekly view.

Meanwhile, the Cardano blockchain saw a spike in activity between 9 and 14 November as the number of new addresses on the blockchain surged from 0 to 11,240, according to data on Cardano Blockchain Insights.

The network, however, had seen a surge in the number of transactions on 8 November, which surpassed 391,000 as FTX crashed.

Cardano’s founder, Charles Hoskinson, said in a live YouTube stream on 9 November:

“I think this might be the bottom, one of the last ones to deal with. It’s going to be hard to predict how bad it will be, and it could certainly potentially be very bad. There are not many more firms that were like FTX or Alameda or like, Three Arrows Capital, and so forth. At least in this cycle, I truly do hope that this is the last cycle of this nature.”

In other cardano futures news, Hoskinson told CoinDesk on 18 November that Cardano is looking to launch a new privacy blockchain and digital asset which he stated to be something “the enterprise absolutely wants”.

Cardano futures price prediction for 2023 and beyond

Algorithm-based prediction websites did not provide cardano futures forecasts, so let’s have a look at the latest ADA/USD outlook.

In line with the latest downward price action, algorithm-based forecasting service Wallet Investor gave a bearish ADA price prediction at the time of writing (21 November) noting that ADA was “a bad long-term investment”.

Based on its analysis of past price performance, Wallet Investor predicted that the token could fall to $0.01016  in 2023. The site did not provide an ADA price prediction for 2027.

DigitalCoinPrice, on the other hand, gave a bullish ADA to USD price prediction expecting the token to grow to $0.39 by the end of 2022 and reach $1.30 on average in 2025. By 2027, the site predicted that the price of ADA tokens could reach $1.59. Its long-term token forecast showed the cryptocurrency reaching $4.35 by 2030.

Meanwhile,  Anndy Lian, the chief digital advisor at the Mongolian Productivity Organisation and author of ‘NFT: From Zero to Hero’, told Capital.com that mid-term technical indicators looked bearish (as of 21 November). He added:

“Sellers’ pressure increases in the cardano market. I hope the longer term potential factors like Midnight and USDA can change things for the better.”

News that the group behind Cardano, Input Output Global, is planning to release a new privacy-focused blockchain could have a potential effect on ADA futures, Lian added in his cardano futures price prediction.

In addition, the launch of USDA, the first fully fiat-backed regulated stablecoin on Cardano, will start trading in early 2023, could lead to a hike in the cardano futures price.

“If executed well, I see this will help ADA decentralised finance ecosystem, thus bringing in more liquidity and support into the network,” Lian added.

Final thoughts

Remember, analysts’ and algorithm-based predictions can be wrong. If you’re considering entering the cardano futures market, we recommend you always conduct your own due diligence, looking at the latest news, a wide range of analyst commentary, technical and fundamental analysis. Note that past performance does not guarantee future returns and cryptocurrency markets remain extremely volatile. And never trade money you cannot afford to lose.

 

Source: https://capital.com/cardano-futures-price-prediction-ada

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Cardano (ADA) Price Prediction 2025-2030: What are the LAMBO chances on holding ADA?

Cardano (ADA) Price Prediction 2025-2030: What are the LAMBO chances on holding ADA?

In recent days, Cardano and other cryptocurrencies have performed strongly. The timing of this rebound coincided with the success of American markets. The explanation, according to analysts, was the United States’ dismal consumer confidence and housing data.

Cardano’s price has risen as a result of the Non-Fungible Token (NFT) market’s strong performance. According to statistics acquired by OpencNFT, the volume of NFTs has been trending significantly bullish over the past few months. As shown in the graph below, this week saw a surge in the daily volume of NFTs in the ecosystem.

After multiple delays, Cardano’s Vasil mainnet upgrade, which promised to raise the network’s capacity and enhance the scalability of the blockchain, was released on 22 September. The same was first announced via a tweet by the Cardano Foundation.

On 27 September, Vasil’s full capabilities became available. Additionally, the Plutus V2 cost model was enabled by the Cardano blockchain, resulting in lower transaction costs for smart contracts.

It is anticipated that these modifications would increase ADA’s value. As of press time, however, this hasn’t happened. This, is mostly because of the financial unpredictability around the world, according to Andy Lian, Chief Digital Advisor at the Mongolian Productivity Organization.

Interestingly, ADA has outperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of performance, having appreciated by 1100%. Cardano (ADA) is a relatively new coin. It is still a network with a lot of potential though. Due to its modifications, the money transfer system is expanding without any problems in 2022, despite the crypto world crisis.

Cardano’s ADA reached its peak in the bull market in 2021. ADA’s price rose to a value of above $3 in September 2021. The price was forced to take losses once more as a result. Before the significant bear market began, these losses occurred between September and November of 2021.

The past few months have seen enormous losses for Cardano. Starting in September 2021, ADA lost a lot of its value. Prior to the same, the price had greatly increased as a result of the creation of smart contracts on the Cardano blockchain at the time. As a result, ADA’s price was able to rise significantly to $3.

Long favoured by long-term investors, ADA has suffered during much of 2022 and is down more than 80% from the year’s beginning when it traded at $2.28.

Even though ADA, along with the majority of the other crypto markets, had a gloomy September, important updates and strong token fundamentals suggest that it may be poised for a breakthrough in October. Historically, this has been a typically positive month for cryptocurrencies.

However, considering that important technical indicators like the RSI and MACD continue to be below 50, suggesting a bearish trend, it seems difficult for Cardano to hit $1 in the upcoming four weeks. Popular analyst Peter Brandt even asserted that ADA could decline to less than $0.25 in the near future.

There has been buzz surrounding contemporary blockchains like Solana and Avalanche. These pose a direct threat to Cardano and can be distinguished by extremely fast transaction speeds. Owing to the same, one can argue that Cardano needs to look over its shoulder.

Despite losses in recent months, Cardano’s price prediction should be fairly optimistic. Cardano should eventually become one of the most technologically advanced blockchains on the market thanks to its long-term, scientifically directed development. In the near future, Cardano might outperform Ethereum and other blockchains in every respect. What is the outlook for Cardano going forward?

Given everything, purchasing ADA must ultimately be prudent, right? The majority of analysts have optimistic forecasts for ADA. Furthermore, the majority of long-term ADA price forecasts are confident.

The Cardano community specifically anticipates a potential increase in the token’s value, particularly following the Vasil hard fork. This line predicts that ADA will trade at $2.26 by August 31, 2022, according to NeuralProphet’s PyTorch-based price prediction algorithm that uses an open-source machine learning framework.

Cardano’s Charles Hoskinson was recently in the news too, with the exec taking a shot at his favorite target – BTC maximalists.

 

Bitcoin [BTC] maximalist Bryan (@btc_bryan_21) took to Twitter to claim that Hoskinson could alter the number of ADA tokens as a result of purported centralization. Cardano’s maximum supply is set at 45 million ADA tokens.

However, the Twitter user claimed that since blockchain’s monetary policy is relatively changeable, nothing would stop the crypto-tycoon from modifying it.

Hoskinson outright denied the credibility of these allegations. He further called the Twitter user “stupid”. This is not the first time the Cardano founder has commented on BTC maximalists. In July 2022, he stated that BTC maximalists are “toxic” and “useless” people to engage with.

The aforementioned statement was made in response to the MicroStrategy CEO’s claims that ADA is unregistered security.

Since all ADA tokens now exist in the possession of their rightful owners, Cardano has consistently resisted the idea of destroying them. Hoskinson claims that this would be equivalent to stealing from the neighbourhood.

Eight of the biggest cryptocurrency exchanges have modified their infrastructure, according to IOHK. Furthermore, the Cardano network’s development team is now prepared for the much-anticipated Vasil hard fork.

Furthermore, three of the top twelve exchanges for Cardano liquidity are ready for the upgrade. Several exchanges, including Gate.io, MEXC, Bitrue, OKx, Whitebit, BtcTurk, AscendEX, and Revuto, have improved their platforms.

Given everything, purchasing ADA must ultimately be prudent, right? The majority of analysts have optimistic forecasts for ADA. Furthermore, the majority of long-term ADA price forecasts are confident.

Why do these projections matter?

Cardano saw a substantial decline in 2022, falling from a high of $3.10 in September 2021 to a little over $0.47 in July 2022. However, only 75% of the total number of coins are now in use, thus there is still room for investors to amass coins.

Also, it seems like the conflict between Ethereum and Cardano may come down to an upgrade war. With the Goguen “Mary” update behind the latter and Vasil done too, it will be interesting to see what the impact of the same will be on the network and on ADA.

Over the past year, Cardano has established itself as one of the most active crypto-assets. As expected, it appears that cryptocurrency investors are optimistic as there has been an increase in the number of Cardano wallets. According to AdaStar, 121 new wallets have been created on average every hour since ADA’s record-breaking price run – A 98% hike.

Also, addresses holding between 10,000 and 10,000,000 ADAs have built on their accumulation tendencies, according to Santiment.

Since 27 July, these addresses have increased their portfolios by a total of 0.46% of ADA’s current supply. In just over 10 days, this amounts to an accumulation of ADA worth approximately $138 million.

3,105 Plutus-based smart contracts were implemented on the network, according to Cardano Blockchain Insights. Indeed, there has been an increase. In fact, in July, this number was 2,900. This demonstrates Cardano’s capability of enabling customers to create blockchain-related applications.

The bullish forecasts are in line with the generally bullish outlook on ADA that comes from network initiatives intended to make the asset more beneficial. The much-awaited Vasil hard fork is finally prepared for launch, according to Cardano’s Charles Hoskinson.

Supporters of the token are obsessed with price movement as it starts to recover, despite slight gains, ADA is yet to meaningfully react to the upgrade. The coin has, however, profited from the recent two-month surge in the wider cryptocurrency market.

In this article, we’ll quickly review the current activity of the cryptocurrency with a focus on market cap and volume. In conclusion, predictions from the most well-known analysts and platforms will be summarized together.

ADA’s price, volume, and everything in between

At press time, Cardano was trading at $0.40. Its market capitalization was  $13 billion and the price decreased by more than 2.73% on the 24-hour chart. In fact, it increased by 14.84% over the last 7 days.

The overall number of ADA wallets was estimated to be 3,577,849 on 28 September, according to Cardano Blockchain Insights. Cardano was also able to add over 500,000 new holdings in the last six months. Even the upgrade’s delay was unable to convince ADA fans to change their minds.

Source: TradingView

On the DeFi front, Cardano’s TVL on DeFiLama depreciated. The total amount locked was $56.52 million, at the time of writing. The same was down by over 7% in 24 hours.

The growth rate of FluidTokens, a DeFi lending platform that enables users to lend or borrow using CNFTs as collateral, was 54,000% over the previous month. However, the network did experience a considerable decline from its all-time high TVL of $326 million on 24 March.

By the end of the year, according to PLAYN creator Matt Lobel, ADA is likely to hike to $1.50. The management team’s quality-first philosophy, he claimed, will enable ADA “continue to develop and not encounter some of the quality challenges that other projects have,” although the rate at which it is expanding may be discouraging.

Martin Froehler, CEO of Morpher, concurs with this statement. He predicts that the value of ADA will reach $1 by the end of 2022 and states simply that “slow and steady wins the race.” The CEO and Xo-founder of Router Protocol, Ramani Ramachandran, is not as convinced about the future applications of ADA and believes the coin will only be worth $0.20 in 2022.

The estimate for September was set by the community at $0.5891. A curious prediction made by the algorithm was that by the end of September, ADA will trade at $1.77.

And, if these predictions seem too much to you, then you must know that there are reasons why the sentiments are so bullish. According to the same Finder research stated earlier, one in five (20%) panelists believes that the Cardano hard fork, which aims to further decentralize the network and boost throughput, will have a favorable long-term effect on the altcoin’s price. Another 17% believe it will at least have a favorable effect shortly.

Source: Finder

The real value of the blockchain will increase as it becomes faster and more effective, and ADA’s value should increase along with it. Cardano may once again reach $1, according to the Motley Fool’s analysts, making it a solid investment at the moment.

The most cautious Cardano price forecasts anticipate roughly linear growth for ADA over the next five years. According to the Cardano projection, ADA will conclude 2022 at $2.74.

There’s good reason for the optimism behind Vasil too. In fact, according to developers,

“Vasil is the most significant Cardano update to date, bringing increased network capacity and lower cost transactions.”

Let’s now look at what well-known platforms and analysts have to say about where they believe ADA will be in 2025 and 2030.

Cardano ADA Price Prediction 2025

Now, even though most predictions are positive, some reasons force us to believe otherwise. Even though the much-awaited update of the blockchain is expected to take the price high, what if the update does not reach its promises and becomes a failure?

According to Changelly, the minimum ADA price is predicted to fall to $1.87 in 2025, while its maximum price will be $2.19. The cost of trading will typically be $1.93.

Cardano is forecasted by Finder’s team of fintech experts to soar to $2.93 by 2025.

A cryptocurrency’s price typically reacts favorably to upgrades, as it did when Ethereum’s EIP-1559 was pushed and the asset’s value once again soared beyond the $ 3,000 mark. However, in the instance of Cardano, the asset’s value fell dramatically, by nearly 50% within one month of the launch of Alonzo.

However, even in a down market, Cardano strives to consistently improve its products. Investors should feel confident as a result because the project’s utility keeps growing. This distinguishes Cardano from several other “meme currencies.”

This seems to support a bullish Cardano prediction, which is why many analysts believe that ADA will be valuable in the long run. Building the utility now might serve as a launchpad for when the cryptocurrency markets heat up again, which would cause the price of ADA to soar dramatically that it would even top its all-time high.

And, you have reasons to believe that. Until 2026, the Cardano blockchain project hopes to sign up as many as 50 banks and 10 Fortune 500 businesses, according to Frederik Gregaard, CEO of the Cardano Foundation.

Gregaard also discussed how he hopes to make it possible for banking institutions to use Cardano’s utility token in a formal presentation.

Cardano ADA Price Prediction 2030

Experts frequently advise educating the public about cryptocurrencies before broad adoption takes place. And, the recent frenzy has probably done just that for many. As a result, many believe that ADA has a strong possibility of continuing to rise through 2030 and beyond.

It’s not “out of reach” for Cardano to surpass the “double-digit threshold,” according to Josh Enomoto, a former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics who has experience working with Fortune 500 businesses, who wrote about it in Nasdaq.com.

He first presented that argument in May 2021 and even forecast that the ADA price would reach $22 by the end of 2022 and perhaps $100 by the end of 2027. Both up and negative trends in altcoin prices are fairly powerful.

Finder’s panel has considered Cardano’s future, placing it in a good position. It believes ADA will hit $6.53 by 2030.

Furthermore, according to cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, the debut of the Minswap decentralized exchange (DEX) and growth in the SundaeSwap and MuesliSwap DEXs allowed Cardano’s total locked value (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) apps to increase by more than 130% in March this year.

Eight years, though, are not without their ups and downs and rough patches. Inflation, recession, conflict, and the fear of an economic collapse are just a few of the hiccups.

Many in the cryptocurrency community are still optimistic about the chances of Cardano’s acceptance in the future.

In January, Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin asked the community on Twitter which crypto, outside of ETH, they would prefer to see dominate transactions in 2035. ADA received 42% of the more than 600,000 votes, while Bitcoin received 38.4%.

 

Of course, investing in cryptocurrencies is risky because of their tremendous volatility. However, investing in Cardano may allow you to “set it and forget it” and watch your money increase, at least through 2030.

Conclusion

After a significant decline in 2022, analysts predict that ADA might eventually provide value and a strong return on investment. The volatility of cryptocurrencies, though, makes everything possible. Never put more money at risk than you can afford.

Remember, that within three months of its release, ADA surged to over $1 during the 2017 crypto bull run, which saw retail investor FOMO (fear of missing out) drive the price of Bitcoin to $20,000. The entire advance was subsequently totally retraced down to $0.02 during the 2018 bear market.

The amount of purchasers on the one-day chart has increased as a result of the altcoin’s demand showing significant appreciation.

To reduce the likelihood of price volatility, the Cardano price must continue to rise. However, it is emphasized that there is always a potential for a price decline following a surge.

The price of Cardano is currently 87% lower than the record high it reached in September 2021. For the altcoin, a rise above its immediate resistance point will open a clean route.

Fundamental analysis (FA), such as a growth in network addresses and TVL, which indicate the growing mainstream adoption of a crypto-project, should be of greater concern to long-term investors.

In addition, MuesliSwap, the first Cardano-based decentralized exchange, announced the successful integration of Plutus V2, making it more effective and less expensive to operate. Another upgrade to Cardano is expected to be issued shortly, according to a cryptic tweet earlier this week from the project’s founder Charles Hoskinson.

Moreover, network activity increased to 97,959 as a result of the rush to purchase Cardano NFTs, a 75% month-over-month rise. Despite the fact that interest in the project has decreased by about 90% from its peak in 2021, the founder, Charles Hoskinson, has portrayed an unconcerned picture. By the time dApps created on the blockchain create their own value, he said, “2023, 2024,” billions in venture money will enter the economy.

As crypto markets flourish, Cardano will follow. With an $18 billion market valuation, it will be very responsive to changes in price. The crypto market will probably expand as the world transitions to a decentralized future, which is good news for Cardano in the long run.

 

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/cardano-ada-price-prediction-5/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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ADA/BTC prediction: Will Vasil hardfork turn around Cardano’s downward trend?

ADA/BTC prediction: Will Vasil hardfork turn around Cardano’s downward trend?

Bitcoin (BTC), the first cryptocurrency and the most valuable coin, is losing steam in 2022 amid a wider shift in market sentiment. Meanwhile, Cardano’s (ADA) long-awaited Vasil hard fork failed to trigger bullishness.

What does it mean for the ADA/BTC forecast? Here we take a look at the Cardano (ADA) to Bitcoin (BTC) cryptocurrency pair and factors shaping the ADA/BTC exchange rate.

 

What is ADA/BTC?

ADA/BTC represents the exchange rate between ADA, the native cryptocurrency of the Cardano blockchain, and BTC, the native coin on the Bitcoin Network.

Maxim Shilo, digital assets analyst at CoinLoan, explained that to determine the ADA/BTC rate, the coins’ prices are calculated separately, then added together, noting:

“If BTC rises 4.5%, and ADA rises 2.5% at the same time, then ADA/BTC price is down 2% respectively…There might be some differences, which are for market makers to spread on.”

Bitcoin was created in 2009 as a digital alternative to cash. Since its launch, the cryptocurrency has started to act as a store of value. It’s been compared to gold as a hedge against inflation.

Bitcoin’s key feature is mining. This is done through a blockchain that connects all public BTC transactions together. The blockchain uses a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism through which miners compete to solve mathematical equations and confirm the legitimacy of transactions. Miners are rewarded in BTC.

BTC tokens also undergo halving events roughly every four years. This is when the number of the BTC coins in circulation is reduced by half, making the token scarcer and raising its price.

Cardano was launched in 2017 as a third-generation crypto platform that uses the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism. The blockchain prides itself in being the first ever crypto platform “to be founded on peer-reviewed research and developed through evidence-based methods”.

Cardano’s key focus is on being sustainable. In September 2021 the platform introduced smart contract capability, which means that the blockchain can now also support the creation of decentralised apps (dApps), new tokens, decentralised finance (DeFi) games, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and more – one of the key factors that makes it stand out compared to BTC.

The platform was developed in “eras”, each named after a prominent historical figure in the fields of literature and computer science, such as Byron, Shelley, Goguen, Basho and Voltaire.

As of 30 September, the blockchain’s era is Basho, which introduced more scaling and optimisation to Cardano. Voltaire will be the last era in the blockchain’s development, which will bring governance to the system.

ADA/BTC historical rate chart

The ADA/BTC exchange rate surged 1,373.4% in the four months after the launch of the ADA token, trading at 0.00007103BTC in January 2018. At the same time the ADA price in USD jumped more than 4,800% to $1.0797. This was when ADA reached its all-time high against BTC.

Between 2018 and 2020 the exchange rate moved sideways, peaking at 0.00001811BTC and 0.00001495BTC in April 2019 and July 2020, respectively. In 2021, ADA regained its momentum against bitcoin.

ADA/BTC EXCHANGE RATE, 2017-2022

Between January and September 2021, the ADA/USD rate surged over 800%, with ADA enjoying the peak of 0.00006008BTC. The jump was mostly driven by bullish sentiment for Cardano, with ADA trading at a record high of $2.9682 in September 2021.

But, wider sentiment in the cryptocurrency markets shifted. ADA/USD swinged lower, losing over 20% year-to-date. Separately, ADA and BTC have lost 68% and 58% of their value in 2022, respectively (as of 30 September).

Is the Vasil fork driving ADA/BTC?

Cardano’s long-awaited Vasil mainnet upgrade, which aims to improve the blockchain’s scalability and increase the network’s capacity, was launched on 22 September after several delays. The Cardano Foundation said on Twitter.

Full Vasil capability became available on 27 September. In addition to that, the Cardano blockchain activated the Plutus V2 cost model, which delivered lower transaction costs for smart contracts.

This update was expected to boost ADA’s value, but failed to do so. According to Anndy Lian, chief digital advisor at the Mongolian Productivity Organisation and author of NFT: From Zero to Hero, “this is mainly due to the financial uncertainty globally.”

“Marco risks led by a very hawkish US Fed have also weighed down ADA’s price movement after Vasil’s launch,” he told Capital.com.

The ADA/BTC exchange rate dropped by 5.5 % between 22 and 29 September, during the hype in the run-up to the fork’s launch.

Shilo agreed that this phenomenon was linked to wider macro-economic factors stemming from a troubled global economy and a wider bear market. “Macro doesn’t really care about the updates or future promises,” he said.

Shilo added that Cardano was not the only token affected by macroeconomics on the brink of a big upgrade, using Ethereum’s Merge as an example.

Lian noted that although ADA failed to jump after the Vasil fork, their voting power has increased by 53%, noting:

“This means that more ADA was being used across proposals in Project Catalyst with 11% of all the circulating ADA being used in Catalyst Fund9, which is a community-driven initiative that allows users to vote and determines the future direction of the ecosystem.”

According to Lian “more utility and support from the community means better potential for the development of the token”.

In other news, the Cardano Foundation is preparing for an events season, which will kick off in October 2022. The Foundation is due to participate in a number of key crypto events that could affect an ADA/BTC forecast.

In November, Cardano will hold the Cardano Summit 2022 in Switzerland, which will focus on presentations and updates from developers of Cardano’s decentralised applications (dApps).

ADA/BTC forecast for 2022 and beyond

Based on the analysis of ADA’s past price performance, as of 30 September, the algorithm-based forecasting service WalletInvestor predicted that ADA/USD could fall to $0.0423 in 2023. The platform did not provide a price prediction for 2027.

In terms of its bitcoin prediction, the site saw BTC/USD trade at $30,274.06 in 2023 and reach $74,480.14 by 2027.

While WalletInvestor did not provide a direct Cardano/Bitcoin forecast, data suggested that the exchange rate could be 0.000000567BTC in 2023.

DigitalCoinPrice predicted that ADA/USD could rise to $0.46 by the end of 2022, $0.99 in 2023 and $1.76 in 2025. Its long-term prediction saw the coin reaching $6.04 in 2030.

The site also gave an upbeat BTC/USD forecast, expecting the coin to average at $20,403 in 2022, $44,579 in 2023, $79,430 in 2025 and surpass $273,000 in 2030.

DigitalCoinPrice’s ADA/BTC forecast for 2022 expected the pair to reach 0.00002255BTC. In 2023, the ADA/BTC prediction saw the exchange rate falling to 0.00002221BTC. The site’s ADA/BTC forecast for 2025 stood at 0.00002216BTC. Its long-term ADA/BTC forecast for 2030 was 0.00002212BTC.

Shilo stressed that bitcoin has relative strength to altcoins and added that in his opinion the ADA/BTC forecast is pointing downwards:

“It’s unlikely that [ADA] will outperform BTC. I can’t see it happening in the near term. Only very few selected coins have done so in the long term, and historically the chances are very slim. Given that the price is trading in the range and is in no man’s land against BTC, it’s clearly pointing toward a downward trend.”

Note that analysts’ and algorithm-based forecasts can be wrong and shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. Always conduct your own due diligence before trading, and never trade money you cannot afford to lose.

 

Source: https://capital.com/ada-btc-prediction-cardano-bitcoin-vasil-hardfork

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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