ADA/BTC prediction: Will Vasil hardfork turn around Cardano’s downward trend?

ADA/BTC prediction: Will Vasil hardfork turn around Cardano’s downward trend?

Bitcoin (BTC), the first cryptocurrency and the most valuable coin, is losing steam in 2022 amid a wider shift in market sentiment. Meanwhile, Cardano’s (ADA) long-awaited Vasil hard fork failed to trigger bullishness.

What does it mean for the ADA/BTC forecast? Here we take a look at the Cardano (ADA) to Bitcoin (BTC) cryptocurrency pair and factors shaping the ADA/BTC exchange rate.

 

What is ADA/BTC?

ADA/BTC represents the exchange rate between ADA, the native cryptocurrency of the Cardano blockchain, and BTC, the native coin on the Bitcoin Network.

Maxim Shilo, digital assets analyst at CoinLoan, explained that to determine the ADA/BTC rate, the coins’ prices are calculated separately, then added together, noting:

“If BTC rises 4.5%, and ADA rises 2.5% at the same time, then ADA/BTC price is down 2% respectively…There might be some differences, which are for market makers to spread on.”

Bitcoin was created in 2009 as a digital alternative to cash. Since its launch, the cryptocurrency has started to act as a store of value. It’s been compared to gold as a hedge against inflation.

Bitcoin’s key feature is mining. This is done through a blockchain that connects all public BTC transactions together. The blockchain uses a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism through which miners compete to solve mathematical equations and confirm the legitimacy of transactions. Miners are rewarded in BTC.

BTC tokens also undergo halving events roughly every four years. This is when the number of the BTC coins in circulation is reduced by half, making the token scarcer and raising its price.

Cardano was launched in 2017 as a third-generation crypto platform that uses the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism. The blockchain prides itself in being the first ever crypto platform “to be founded on peer-reviewed research and developed through evidence-based methods”.

Cardano’s key focus is on being sustainable. In September 2021 the platform introduced smart contract capability, which means that the blockchain can now also support the creation of decentralised apps (dApps), new tokens, decentralised finance (DeFi) games, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and more – one of the key factors that makes it stand out compared to BTC.

The platform was developed in “eras”, each named after a prominent historical figure in the fields of literature and computer science, such as Byron, Shelley, Goguen, Basho and Voltaire.

As of 30 September, the blockchain’s era is Basho, which introduced more scaling and optimisation to Cardano. Voltaire will be the last era in the blockchain’s development, which will bring governance to the system.

ADA/BTC historical rate chart

The ADA/BTC exchange rate surged 1,373.4% in the four months after the launch of the ADA token, trading at 0.00007103BTC in January 2018. At the same time the ADA price in USD jumped more than 4,800% to $1.0797. This was when ADA reached its all-time high against BTC.

Between 2018 and 2020 the exchange rate moved sideways, peaking at 0.00001811BTC and 0.00001495BTC in April 2019 and July 2020, respectively. In 2021, ADA regained its momentum against bitcoin.

ADA/BTC EXCHANGE RATE, 2017-2022

Between January and September 2021, the ADA/USD rate surged over 800%, with ADA enjoying the peak of 0.00006008BTC. The jump was mostly driven by bullish sentiment for Cardano, with ADA trading at a record high of $2.9682 in September 2021.

But, wider sentiment in the cryptocurrency markets shifted. ADA/USD swinged lower, losing over 20% year-to-date. Separately, ADA and BTC have lost 68% and 58% of their value in 2022, respectively (as of 30 September).

Is the Vasil fork driving ADA/BTC?

Cardano’s long-awaited Vasil mainnet upgrade, which aims to improve the blockchain’s scalability and increase the network’s capacity, was launched on 22 September after several delays. The Cardano Foundation said on Twitter.

Full Vasil capability became available on 27 September. In addition to that, the Cardano blockchain activated the Plutus V2 cost model, which delivered lower transaction costs for smart contracts.

This update was expected to boost ADA’s value, but failed to do so. According to Anndy Lian, chief digital advisor at the Mongolian Productivity Organisation and author of NFT: From Zero to Hero, “this is mainly due to the financial uncertainty globally.”

“Marco risks led by a very hawkish US Fed have also weighed down ADA’s price movement after Vasil’s launch,” he told Capital.com.

The ADA/BTC exchange rate dropped by 5.5 % between 22 and 29 September, during the hype in the run-up to the fork’s launch.

Shilo agreed that this phenomenon was linked to wider macro-economic factors stemming from a troubled global economy and a wider bear market. “Macro doesn’t really care about the updates or future promises,” he said.

Shilo added that Cardano was not the only token affected by macroeconomics on the brink of a big upgrade, using Ethereum’s Merge as an example.

Lian noted that although ADA failed to jump after the Vasil fork, their voting power has increased by 53%, noting:

“This means that more ADA was being used across proposals in Project Catalyst with 11% of all the circulating ADA being used in Catalyst Fund9, which is a community-driven initiative that allows users to vote and determines the future direction of the ecosystem.”

According to Lian “more utility and support from the community means better potential for the development of the token”.

In other news, the Cardano Foundation is preparing for an events season, which will kick off in October 2022. The Foundation is due to participate in a number of key crypto events that could affect an ADA/BTC forecast.

In November, Cardano will hold the Cardano Summit 2022 in Switzerland, which will focus on presentations and updates from developers of Cardano’s decentralised applications (dApps).

ADA/BTC forecast for 2022 and beyond

Based on the analysis of ADA’s past price performance, as of 30 September, the algorithm-based forecasting service WalletInvestor predicted that ADA/USD could fall to $0.0423 in 2023. The platform did not provide a price prediction for 2027.

In terms of its bitcoin prediction, the site saw BTC/USD trade at $30,274.06 in 2023 and reach $74,480.14 by 2027.

While WalletInvestor did not provide a direct Cardano/Bitcoin forecast, data suggested that the exchange rate could be 0.000000567BTC in 2023.

DigitalCoinPrice predicted that ADA/USD could rise to $0.46 by the end of 2022, $0.99 in 2023 and $1.76 in 2025. Its long-term prediction saw the coin reaching $6.04 in 2030.

The site also gave an upbeat BTC/USD forecast, expecting the coin to average at $20,403 in 2022, $44,579 in 2023, $79,430 in 2025 and surpass $273,000 in 2030.

DigitalCoinPrice’s ADA/BTC forecast for 2022 expected the pair to reach 0.00002255BTC. In 2023, the ADA/BTC prediction saw the exchange rate falling to 0.00002221BTC. The site’s ADA/BTC forecast for 2025 stood at 0.00002216BTC. Its long-term ADA/BTC forecast for 2030 was 0.00002212BTC.

Shilo stressed that bitcoin has relative strength to altcoins and added that in his opinion the ADA/BTC forecast is pointing downwards:

“It’s unlikely that [ADA] will outperform BTC. I can’t see it happening in the near term. Only very few selected coins have done so in the long term, and historically the chances are very slim. Given that the price is trading in the range and is in no man’s land against BTC, it’s clearly pointing toward a downward trend.”

Note that analysts’ and algorithm-based forecasts can be wrong and shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. Always conduct your own due diligence before trading, and never trade money you cannot afford to lose.

 

Source: https://capital.com/ada-btc-prediction-cardano-bitcoin-vasil-hardfork

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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With Ethereum ‘Merge’ around the corner, what happens to Bitcoin?

With Ethereum ‘Merge’ around the corner, what happens to Bitcoin?

I shared this with Murtuza over the weekend. The shift to PoS does add pressure to Bitcoin’s energy consumption issue. The amount of energy consumed is one of the key criticism and when Ethereum shifted to PoS completely next week, Bitcoin will become the only top dog left to be on PoW. All eyes will be on Bitcoin. The green experts will find ways to scrutinize Bitcoin. The regulators will find ways to control Bitcoin and targeting PoW seems to be the right move.

The second thing I want to point out is about the perception of Bitcoin. In the longer term, say 30 years down the road when Bitcoin issuance is near zero, another problem we need to face is how the blockchain stays secure. As Ethereum abandons PoW and stating their standpoint, I think this issue will become a spotlight and can indirectly giving the perception that Bitcoin will be unstable and will not be a real asset in the future.

In my humble opinion, we need to solve the issues step by step. Perhaps new protocol innovation can change that.

Another friend of mine also shared this with me on the phone. And I do agree with him too.

“As long as Bitcoin stays in the number 1 position and Satoshi remains a mystery, Ethereum’s shift to PoS will not put a dent in Bitcoin to any image. Regulators can find fault with Ethereum, because their founder is in sight, well not Satoshi.

Ethereum’s price has outperformed Bitcoin in recent weeks because everyone is hopeful that the merge will enhance the blockchain, but its not and also environmentally friendly. But as we all know, the environmental angle will not last long. Ethereum had fallen so badly compared to Bitcoin since the end of last year. This narrative will not stand.”

With Ethereum ‘Merge’ around the corner, what happens to Bitcoin?

The Ethereum upgrade may bring more regulatory scrutiny on Bitcoin for its energy consumption. While there could be pressure on Bitcoin, there won’t be much of an overall impact, some experts say.

There seems to be no certainty on how Bitcoin, the dominant cryptocurrency, will be affected once Ethereum, the second-largest digital currency, completes its upgrade to a more energy-efficient network.

Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin has said the upgrade, known as The Merge, is anticipated September 13-15, when it will conclude the shift from the energy-guzzling Proof Of Work (PoW) consensus to the Proof of Stake (PoS) validation method.

Ethereum, with a market capitalisation of $204 billion – half that of Bitcoin – started the first phase of the upgrade last week as it targets building a dependable decentralised ecosystem for the financial future.

In the PoS system, participants known as validators lock in their holdings of cryptocurrency or crypto token (their stake) to the blockchain to validate new transactions and earn rewards. However, they could lose their stake if their validation is inaccurate or fraudulent.

This contrasts with PoW, which uses a lot of energy to mine tokens by using computers to solve mathematical equations. The high energy consumption is a serious drawback for PoW, which continues to be the foundation of Bitcoin mining.

Pressure on Bitcoin

The energy issue is not the only macroeconomic risk for the crypto ecosystem. Other matters such as political unrest, high inflation rates, and hawkish national monetary policies are said to also have led to the present bear market.

Bitcoin reached an all-time high price of $69,000 in November 2021. Since then, the world economy has been struggling and this has caused a sharp decline in the price of Bitcoin (almost 70 percent) and other cryptocurrencies.

The short-term price forecast for the most popular cryptocurrency is still unclear as Bitcoin’s price fluctuates and hovers around $21,000 per coin.

While it is not clear what might aid Bitcoin’s recovery, Ethereum’s network upgrade, which seeks to position its ecosystem as the currency of the future, may put even more pressure on Bitcoin’s usefulness as volatility continues to alarm mainstream investors.

According to Anndy Lian, the author of NFT: From Zero to Hero, the shift to PoS does add pressure to Bitcoin’s energy consumption issue.

“Green experts will find ways to scrutinise Bitcoin. The regulators will find ways to control Bitcoin and targeting PoW seems to be the right move,” Lian said.

He added that over the course of the next three decades, when Bitcoin issuance is near zero, another problem will be how the blockchain stays secure.

“This issue (of Bitcoin’s PoW consensus) will become a spotlight and can indirectly give the perception that Bitcoin will be unstable and will not be a real asset in the future. In my humble opinion, we need to solve the issues step by step. Perhaps new protocol innovation can change that,” Lian said.

“Bitcoin isn’t likely to become more sustainable any time soon,” said Digiconomist, a science and technology publication that tracks Bitcoin energy consumption. The findings gained support after China tightened down on cryptocurrency mining, which sharply reduced the proportion of renewable energy sources used to run the network.

According to Alex de Vries, a researcher and critic of cryptocurrencies, “Bitcoin got dirtier after the Chinese mining crackdown in 2021.”

Hard to change

Ali Merchant, lead developer relations engineer at Akash Network, which works in cloud computing, said that as lucrative as it may sound, changing Bitcoin from PoW to PoS is technically very challenging.

“Even if a group of people decided to implement that change, it would be very difficult to get more than 51 percent of the votes on a network. Pair that up with Bitcoin Maxis who think that PoS could compromise the decentralisation of Bitcoin. To add to that, people who make tons of money out of Bitcoin farming will most likely oppose this kind of proposal,” he said.

This would be true of the Ethereum network, too. Ethereum will also be forked, with one chain continuing to PoW-based validation. Thus, it would be naive to conclude that all PoW chains can be migrated to PoS.

Should Bitcoin too migrate to PoS, it would make some people very upset, although there could be increased adoption of the coin as it would be more eco-friendly.

“Bitcoin migration isn’t coming anytime soon. If it does, it might just see a spike in trading volumes,” Merchant said.

After the Ethereum integration, only 23 percent of the total crypto volumes will be based on PoW, mostly Bitcoin. Regulators will now search for ways to regulate cryptocurrency, with the apparent first step being to target PoW.

Bitcoin’s reputation as a power hog continues to be one of its weaknesses.

In contrast to PoW, which cannot be utilised for the metaverse or non-fungible tokens (NFTs), Ethereum is establishing the framework for PoS. However, other cryptocurrencies may create new protocols and governance models.

With Bitcoin’s future being uncertain, competition, regulation, and energy issues are only a few of the elements at play.

“If we look at investor trends, however, no one holds their bigger capital in Ethereum – people will hold big capital in Bitcoin,” said Raj Kapoor, founder of the India Blockchain Alliance. “Bitcoin will always be like digital gold and Ethereum like fiat money, so while there would be a dip in Bitcoin prices, there would not be much of an impact.”

However, Kapoor said a sharp dip could be expected in the immediate term. The fear that the Bitcoin network may be “regulated away” may also cause the price of Bitcoin to move lower, he said.

Source: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/cryptocurrency/with-ethereum-merge-around-the-corner-what-happens-to-bitcoin-9165191.html

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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With bitcoin price hovering around the $20,000 mark, market observers expect its trading to continue between $18,000 and $22,000

With bitcoin price hovering around the $20,000 mark, market observers expect its trading to continue between $18,000 and $22,000

According to market observers and its volatile conditions, cryptocurrency trading has maintained the range between $18000 and $22000 for a month. Additional thoughts were shared.

Bitcoin price has a lot to do with the supply and holders too. If you have looked at Glassnode’s data, over 80% of the total USD-denominated wealth invested in bitcoin has been moved for at least three months. When supply is dormant, the price is dormant, and this means that holders are unwilling to spend at a lower price.

Another possible reason is that SEC chair Gary Gensler said in an interview with Yahoo Finance on 15 July 2022 that they will continue to speak to the crypto industry, saying that they may suggest rules that apply to traditional brokerage to protect investors in the event of crypto failure. This piece of news in a timely manner, and gives more confidence to the investors at large.

The news of South Africa will go all in to regulate crypto as a financial asset is another plus point for this week. With all the news today alone, many people on Twitter turned bullish upon seeing the crypto market cap was traded closer back to the $1 trillion mark. Investors have to look at the following dates:

1) 27 July- Federal Reserve Interest Rates;

2) 28 July- US GDP Figures.

These are important dates to note as they can drive the crypto prices up or down.

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With bitcoin price hovering around the $20,000 mark, market observers expect its trading to continue between $18,000 and $22,000

According to market reports, volatility in cryptocurrency markets is because of factors such as the global pandemic, world governments, and Web3.0’s bullish nature.

After a topsy-turvy ride, it seems bitcoin has stabilised with it being predicted to trade between $18,000 and $22,000, based on its price range for the last couple of months. On July 17, cryptocurrency bitcoin’s price fell below the $21,000 mark. At the time of writing (12.19 pm, Indian Standard Time), the global cryptocurrency market capitalisation reached a $1.01 trillion valuation while bitcoin traded close to the $22,000 value, according to cryptocurrency assets price-tracking website CoinMarketCap. “Bitcoin is hovering close to the $20,000 mark because of the community and investors who still believe in the currency. Due to the cryptocurrency’s nature and limited supply, its price is expected to increase in the future,” Agam Chaudhary, a serial entrepreneur and investor in Web3.0 space, told FE Digital Currency.

Various market reports stated that volatility in cryptocurrency markets is because of factors such as the global pandemic, influence of stock markets, decisions by governments, and the bullish nature of Web3.0 space. According to the Twitter handle of blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, over 80% of the total United States Dollar (USD) denominated wealth has been held on by investors for around 3 months, irrespective of market volatility. “Rules must be suggested for traditional brokerage to protect investors in the event of cryptocurrency failure. Investors need to follow the Federal Reserve Interest rates and US gross domestic product (GDP) figures, as they can drive cryptocurrency prices up or down,” Anndy Lian, chief digital advisor, Mongolian Productivity Organisation, a governmental organisation, stated.

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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