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The US$65,000 and US$1,850 question: Can we hold this level after CPI release?

The US$65,000 and US$1,850 question: Can we hold this level after CPI release?

The digital asset market currently presents a fascinating divergence in momentum as investors navigate a complex macroeconomic landscape. Bitcoin recently climbed 0.64 per cent to reach US$64,226.68 over a standard 24-hour trading period. This specific movement slightly trailed the broader market gain of 0.83 per cent. Meanwhile, Ethereum demonstrated vastly superior strength, surging 2.98 per cent to US$1,837.72 in the exact same timeframe.

These distinct price actions reflect fundamentally different underlying catalysts driving each network. Bitcoin relies heavily on institutional capital flows and broad macroeconomic correlations. Ethereum draws its current strength from tangible ecosystem utility and decisive technical breakouts. Both major assets now face a critical juncture as the market eagerly awaits the June United States Consumer Price Index report on July 14. This crucial inflation data will heavily influence overall risk sentiment and dictate the near-term trajectory for the entire cryptocurrency sector.

Institutional demand currently anchors the primary Bitcoin narrative. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded their first weekly net inflow in over two months. The sector attracted US$197 million for the week ending July 10. This massive influx successfully broke an eight-week outflow streak that previously drained over US$8 billion from the sector. BlackRock led this impressive resurgence. Their IBIT exchange-traded fund alone captured US$292 million in net inflows. This substantial capital injection signals a potential halt to sustained institutional selling and provides a fundamental floor for the asset price.

Furthermore, Bitcoin exhibits a strong 75 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 over the past week. This high correlation strongly indicates a macro-driven move rather than an isolated crypto phenomenon. This dynamic illustrates how traditional finance increasingly dictates the rhythm of cryptocurrency valuations. The asset also experienced a distinct defensive rotation. Bitcoin dominance increased to 58.39 per cent while major altcoins like XRP and Dogecoin significantly underperformed. Investors clearly sought perceived safety within the largest digital asset during this period of uncertainty.

Technical indicators reveal a cautious posture for the leading cryptocurrency. The asset trades above its seven-day Simple Moving Average near US$63,490. Momentum remains neutral with the 14-day Relative Strength Index sitting at exactly 52. The immediate psychological resistance stands at US$65,000. A failure to hold current levels risks a drop toward the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$63,619. Such technical indicators suggest that buyers currently lack the aggressive conviction needed to push prices significantly higher without external catalysts.

Market participants must watch for sustained inflows over the coming weeks to confirm a genuine trend reversal rather than just a temporary pause. The combination of halted exchange-traded fund outflows and a defensive market posture provides near-term support. Conviction remains fragile ahead of critical inflation data. The primary focus remains on whether Bitcoin can reclaim and hold the US$65,000 level after the July 14 Consumer Price Index data release. Traders will closely observe the volume accompanying any breakout attempts to ensure genuine buying pressure supports the advance.

Ethereum presents a starkly different growth narrative because concrete ecosystem developments propel it forward. The launch of Robinhood Chain, an Ethereum Layer 2 network, significantly boosted market sentiment. This new network utilises ETH for gas fees and has rapidly attracted substantial capital. Users bridged over US$141 million in ETH to the network shortly after launch. The decentralised exchange volume on this new layer briefly surpassed that of the Ethereum mainnet. This real adoption signals increased utility and genuine demand for the underlying token.

The move derives its strength from tangible growth in the network’s use case rather than pure speculation. This infrastructure expansion demonstrates that builders recognise the inherent value and security of the base layer. The Ethereum Ecosystem category currently ranks as the second most trending narrative, indicating clear capital rotation into the network and its associated tokens. Market participants recognise this fundamental shift in utility as a major positive catalyst for future price appreciation and network expansion across the broader digital asset landscape.

The price action confirms this shift in momentum for the second-largest digital asset. Ethereum broke above a descending trendline and formed a golden cross on its hourly chart against Bitcoin. Traders must watch for a sustained trade above the 50-day moving average near US$2,000 to confirm a stronger bullish signal. The asset faces immediate resistance between US$1,830 and US$1,850. A successful breakout could target the high-liquidity zone between US$1,950 and US$2,100. This specific zone holds significant short positions that could trigger rapid liquidation.

Conversely, firm support exists between US$1,720 and US$1,740. A break below this level risks a severe drop to US$1,550. The path of least resistance remains cautiously higher provided key support holds. Market makers will likely adjust their spreads accordingly as volatility expectations shift around these pivotal price levels. Market participants should closely watch the price reaction at US$1,850 and the Consumer Price Index print for directional clarity. Sustained momentum above these critical thresholds will likely attract additional algorithmic trading capital and reinforce the broader bullish thesis.

My perspective on this current market environment highlights a clear bifurcation in asset drivers. Bitcoin operates primarily as a macroeconomic beta asset. Its price action tightly couples with traditional equity markets and institutional capital flows. The reversal of the exchange-traded fund outflow streak provides immense relief to holders. The conviction behind this bullish stance remains fragile until the market digests upcoming inflation metrics.

Ethereum, conversely, demonstrates idiosyncratic strength rooted in network utility. The Robinhood Chain launch proves that developers and users actively seek Ethereum infrastructure for real-world applications. This fundamental utility separates the asset from mere market speculation and provides a robust foundation for future appreciation. Both assets now converge on a single critical catalyst.

The July 14 Consumer Price Index release will serve as the arbiter of near-term market direction. A hotter-than-expected inflation print could renew selling pressure across the board and invalidate current technical breakouts. Favourable data could accelerate the current cautious uptrend. Investors must maintain a highly disciplined approach. They should monitor the US$65,000 level for Bitcoin and the US$1,850 barrier for Ethereum. The ability of these assets to reclaim and hold these thresholds post-inflation data will definitively define the market trajectory for the remainder of the third quarter and establish the baseline for future institutional allocation strategies.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-us65000-and-us1850-question-can-we-hold-this-level-after-cpi-release-20260713/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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Bitcoin rebounded as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz faded

Bitcoin rebounded as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz faded

The global financial landscape on July 7, 2026, presents a complex environment of sector rotations and shifting macroeconomic sentiments. Technology shares and semiconductor companies face notable downward pressure today as investors actively move capital into alternative sectors to position their portfolios for the second half of the year.

This broader market transition directly impacts digital assets, where Bitcoin exhibits a notable resurgence. The premier digital asset recently advanced 0.63 per cent over the past 24 hours, bringing its price to exactly US$63791.12. This upward trajectory allows the asset to slightly outperform a flat broader market, drawing intense interest from market observers who track these capital flows across global networks.

I view this development as a clear signal that traditional finance dynamics increasingly dictate cryptocurrency valuations. Analysts note that Bitcoin maintains a strong 79.6 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 index and a 56.0 per cent correlation with gold. These figures indicate a shared asset-class sensitivity to interest-rate expectations and shifting global liquidity conditions.

The broader cryptocurrency market reflects this constructive momentum, pushing the total crypto market capitalisation toward US$2.2T. Bitcoin maintains a dominant position within this expansive ecosystem, commanding approximately 58 per cent market dominance. On major tracking platforms, the asset is actively trading around US$63799.25 today, with a substantial 24-hour trading volume of nearly US$35.93B. This immense liquidity supports the current price structure and signals a distinct shift from the corrective patterns that characterised the previous month.

A clear shift in macroeconomic sentiment creates the foundational catalyst for this market expansion. This macro relief operates alongside an abrupt turnaround in institutional exchange-traded fund flows. Softer employment data from the United States recently altered market expectations, leading many market participants to believe the Federal Reserve will implement interest rate cuts in the near term.

This shift in sentiment directly benefits rate-sensitive assets as institutional players reallocate capital toward growth and alternative asset classes to front-run these policy changes. United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds simultaneously snapped a punishing 10-day streak of consecutive capital outflows. These investment vehicles recorded a substantial net inflow of US$221.72 million on July 2, which effectively arrested a period of intense institutional selling pressure.

This new capital represents a massive shift from June, a month that saw a record US$4.5B in total net outflows from these identical spot investment products. I believe this flow reversal marks the most critical fundamental driver of the current price action, confirming that institutional demand returns vigorously when prices reach attractive valuation bands.

This institutional stabilisation carries profound implications for the immediate future of digital assets. The transition from aggressive capital flight to net positive inflows confirms underlying market strength, and traders recognise this structural change as a primary driver of recent market stability. Spot buying provides a solid floor for price discovery. The asset recently touched an intraday high around US$63835 on July 6, successfully reclaiming the US$63000 threshold for the first time in two weeks.

This critical advance secured a 3.6 per cent weekly gain, effectively erasing the vast majority of the losses incurred during the final weeks of June. The market has now engineered a recovery of nearly 10 per cent from the early July lows, which dipped near the US$58,000 mark. The price specifically bounced off an absolute low of US$58293. I assess that this specific recovery arc demonstrates severe resilience because buyers clearly stepped in exactly when the asset looked most vulnerable.

Institutional spot buying laid the groundwork for this recovery, before a powerful derivatives phenomenon provided the fuel for rapid upward expansion. Market data reveals that the initial price gains triggered a severe short squeeze that caught overleveraged bearish traders entirely out of position. Derivatives platforms recorded a massive 291 per cent spike in 24-hour liquidations, driving total wiped positions to US$227 million. Short positions bore the brunt of this destruction, accounting for US$148 million of the total liquidation figure.

Separate tracking reports indicate that short liquidations around the specific bounce point totalled approximately US$214 million, forming a core component of nearly US$186 million in total leveraged positions that were completely wiped out. This cascade of forced buybacks occurred because short sellers had to purchase spot asset units to close out their failing positions. This automated upward spiral aggressively amplified the organic spot demand, essentially forcing bears to buy the asset they bet against.

This volatility in the derivatives market fundamentally altered the internal leverage structure of the cryptocurrency markets. The average funding rate across major futures platforms rose sharply by 62 per cent as the short squeeze unfolded. This elevated funding rate indicates that marketplace participants now pay a premium to maintain long positions, reflecting a sudden wave of bullish enthusiasm among retail and institutional derivatives traders.

This dynamic introduces a layer of fragility to the current market framework. The market becomes highly susceptible to sudden volatility injections when leverage spikes rapidly alongside rising funding rates. Market participants must monitor these metrics closely to determine whether spot purchasing can keep pace with futures leverage. The market risks setting the stage for a sharp liquidation event in the opposite direction if spot demand falters. I remain cautious about chasing this rally precisely because derivatives largely drove the ultimate breakout.

The asset currently tests the upper boundaries of its established range from a technical perspective. The Fibonacci 38.2 per cent retracement level sits precisely at US$63619 today, transitioning from a formidable resistance ceiling into a crucial near-term support floor. Buyers must successfully defend this area along with the broader support zone between US$62500 and US$62800. A successful defence sets up a potential retest of the major resistance band located between US$64000 and US$65000.

Market participants generally agree that the bulls must engineer a clean break above the US$65000 to US$67000 zone to confirm a definitive trend reversal, an action that would invalidate the broader corrective structure completely. A failure to hold the line at US$62600, or at the lower US$61500 and US$61000 levels, would expose the market to severe downside risk. That failure could drive prices down toward the key US$60000 and US$59500 support levels, potentially forcing a retest of the high-US$58000 region. I interpret this chart setup as cautiously bullish but strictly range-bound until a decisive breakout occurs.

The immediate outlook faces a series of imminent macroeconomic challenges that will test this newfound optimism. Global equity benchmarks and traditional asset classes show signs of exhaustion today, and the mixed trading session on July 7 clearly demonstrates this fatigue. Profit-taking in the semiconductor sector dragged the Japan Nikkei index down by 0.7 per cent in Asian markets, while the South Korea Kospi index lost 0.91 per cent.

Blockbuster corporate announcements failed to ignite traditional equities, as Samsung shares declined despite the company posting impressive preliminary quarterly profits of 89.4 trillion won (US$58B). West Texas Intermediate crude oil remains steady below US$69 a barrel in the commodities sector, as cooling tensions in the Middle East cap oil upside. Spot gold dropped roughly 0.5 per cent to trade near US$4150 per ounce. The United States Dollar firmed up against major currencies, pushing the Japanese Yen toward the 162 level amid intense speculative pressure.

Fixed-income markets offer a clue into near-term capital direction amidst these fluctuating global metrics. United States 10-year Treasury yields recently drifted lower to 4.46 per cent following the soft employment reports. This yield compression signals that traditional investors actively factor in a looser monetary policy environment.

The ultimate validation of this thesis will arrive on July 9 when the Federal Reserve releases its official meeting minutes. This document is the primary macroeconomic trigger for the week, and its contents will determine whether the current relief rally becomes a sustainable uptrend. I anticipate that a dovish tone in these minutes will accelerate spot inflows, providing the fundamental catalyst that allows the asset to clear the final resistance levels and complete its structural recovery.

Market participants must practice strict risk management until the central bank formally reveals its policy stance, as macro triggers consistently override short-term technical patterns in this highly interconnected financial environment.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-rebounded-as-tensions-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-faded-20260707/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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Crypto falls 1.29% to US$2.34T as geopolitical fear triggers risk-asset selloff

Crypto falls 1.29% to US$2.34T as geopolitical fear triggers risk-asset selloff

The global financial system faced a harsh reality check as trading commenced on Monday, March 23, 2026. Investors woke up to a landscape defined by fear and uncertainty, with escalating tensions in the Middle East colliding with a stubbornly hawkish monetary policy environment. The result was a broad-based selloff that touched nearly every corner of the market, from traditional equities to digital assets. This was not merely a routine correction but a fundamental reassessment of risk in an increasingly unstable world.

The numbers tell a stark story of investor anxiety. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 443.96 points to close at 45,577.47, a 0.96 per cent decline. The broader S&P 500 fared worse, dropping 100.01 points or 1.51 per cent to settle at 6,506.48. Technology stocks bore the brunt of selling pressure, with the Nasdaq Composite plunging 443.08 points, a 2.01 per cent decline, to 21,647.61. These losses extended a grim streak for US markets, which finished the previous week with their fourth consecutive weekly decline. The momentum clearly favours the bears, and bulls find themselves with little ammunition to fight back.

The catalyst for this market turmoil stems from a dangerous geopolitical flashpoint. US President Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies. This ultimatum entered its critical phase as markets opened, with the Iran conflict now in its fourth week. The threat to this vital maritime passage sent shockwaves through energy markets, pushing Brent crude toward US$111 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate hovered near US$98 per barrel. Such elevated oil prices feed directly into inflation concerns, complicating the already difficult task facing central bankers.

The contagion spread far beyond American shores. Asian markets tumbled in sympathy with Wall Street’s woes. Japan’s Nikkei index plummeted three per cent, while South Korea’s Kospi dropped over four per cent. This synchronised global selloff demonstrates how interconnected modern financial markets have become. When fear strikes in one region, it ripples across time zones with devastating speed. The universal nature of this decline suggests investors are not discriminating between regions or sectors but rather fleeing risk assets wholesale.

Technology stocks faced particular pressure following a brutal rout that saw the Nasdaq 100 hit a 23-month low on March 20. The sector’s vulnerability reflects its sensitivity to interest rate expectations and risk appetite. With traders significantly scaling back expectations for interest rate cuts, the environment has turned hostile for growth stocks that depend on cheap capital. Some markets now do not price in US monetary easing before mid-2027, a stark revision from earlier expectations. This hawkish repricing forces investors to confront the reality that the era of easy money may remain dormant far longer than anticipated.

The cryptocurrency market offered no refuge from the storm. The total crypto market capitalisation fell 1.29 per cent to US$2.34T over a 24-hour period, demonstrating that digital assets remain firmly in the risk-sensitive category despite narratives about their independence from traditional finance. The Ethereum ecosystem suffered particularly severe damage, plunging 14.91 per cent amid accelerating profit-taking and sector rotation. Large holders with wallets containing over 100K ETH found themselves back in profit, a condition that historically precedes rallies but can trigger short-term selling pressure.

What makes this moment particularly noteworthy is the correlation between crypto and traditional safe havens. Over the past 7 days, cryptocurrency has shown a 95 per cent correlation with gold, suggesting both assets are responding to the same uncertainty-hedge dynamics. This is ironic given that gold itself suffered its worst weekly performance since 2011 in the prior week. Even traditional havens are not immune to the volatility gripping markets. The technical picture for crypto looks precarious, with the market testing the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$2.29T. A break below this level could extend losses toward the yearly low of US$2.17T, while recovery above US$2.38T would suggest the selloff is abating.

The commodity complex reflects the tension between growth concerns and supply fears. While oil prices surge on geopolitical risk, the broader commodity picture remains mixed. Gold’s struggle to maintain its safe-haven premium despite war jitters suggests investors are prioritising liquidity and dollar strength over traditional inflation hedges. This dynamic creates a challenging environment for portfolio construction, as the usual diversification benefits appear to be breaking down under stress.

The path forward depends heavily on developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the Federal Reserve’s response to elevated oil prices. If oil holds above US$95 per barrel, inflation fears will continue to pressure risk assets. The market needs clarity on both the geopolitical front and the monetary policy outlook before it can find a stable footing. Flash PMI data and any escalation in the Middle East will dictate the next macro move. US Bitcoin ETF flow data on March 24 will provide insight into institutional sentiment, with sustained outflows confirming the cautious stance prevailing among professional investors.

This moment represents more than a routine market pullback. It reflects a fundamental tension between geopolitical instability and monetary policy constraints that will likely persist for weeks if not months. Investors must navigate a landscape where traditional relationships break down, correlations spike, and both risk assets and safe havens can decline simultaneously. The coming days will test whether this represents a buying opportunity or the beginning of a more severe adjustment. For now, caution remains the only rational response to a market caught between war and tight money.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-falls-1-29-to-us2-34t-as-geopolitical-fear-triggers-risk-asset-selloff-20260323/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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