Tag Archives: bet

Oil falls, Bitcoin soars, and Nvidia’s AI bet pays off big: Decoding the new market paradigm

Oil falls, Bitcoin soars, and Nvidia’s AI bet pays off big: Decoding the new market paradigm

Equities staged a relief rally as oil prices retreated from recent highs, offering investors breathing room following intense volatility driven by conflict in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This moment captures a market searching for stability while navigating geopolitical uncertainty, central bank policy shifts, and the accelerating integration of digital assets into traditional portfolios. The interplay between these forces reveals a financial system in transition, where institutional adoption of crypto assets now moves in lockstep with macroeconomic signals.

Energy prices eased as WTI crude fell 5.1 per cent to near US$93.50/bbl. This decline followed signals that more tankers might traverse the Strait of Hormuz, as well as reports of potential emergency stockpile releases from wealthy nations. The pullback in oil provided immediate relief to inflation-sensitive equities, yet the underlying geopolitical fragility remains. Traders now watch the API Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles report for confirmation of demand trends during this ongoing energy crisis. Meanwhile, central bank attention dominates the macro landscape. The Reserve Bank of Australia met on 17 March with markets widely expecting a 25-basis-point hike to 4.1 per cent to combat inflation. All eyes then shift to the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on 17 to 18 March, where policymakers will offer clues on 2026 rate trajectories. Any hint of prolonged restrictive policy could quickly reverse the day’s risk-on sentiment.

Corporate markets reflected the AI investment thesis that continues to shape equity valuations. NVIDIA Corp. climbed 1.6 per cent following projections that it could generate at least US$1 trillion from AI chips by the end of 2027. This milestone underscores how deeply artificial intelligence has embedded itself in market expectations, driving capital toward companies positioned at the infrastructure layer of the next technological cycle. In commodities, gold steadied near US$5,007–US$5,015/oz, remaining close to all-time highs despite minor dips ahead of the Fed meeting. The metal’s resilience signals persistent hedging demand even as risk assets rally, a reminder that investors maintain a dual posture of optimism and caution.

The cryptocurrency market delivered one of the day’s most compelling narratives, rising 4.48 per cent to US$2.58T in 24 hours. This move was primarily driven by Bitcoin-led momentum fuelled by institutional demand. Notably, Bitcoin maintains a 53 per cent correlation with the S&P 500, confirming that digital assets now respond to macro drivers as much as idiosyncratic crypto factors. The primary catalyst remains sustained inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with US$793M added last week alone. This persistent institutional appetite propelled Bitcoin above US$75,000, lifting the entire market. From my perspective, this trend validates a structural shift we have anticipated for years. Regulated access points, such as ETFs, are not merely convenience products. They represent a critical bridge between traditional finance and decentralised networks, enabling capital allocation that respects both compliance and innovation.

Ethereum’s 10 per cent surge amplified the broader rally, fuelled by its own ETF inflows and strong Layer-1 ecosystem performance. Net inflows to US spot ether ETFs exceeded US$160M last week, signalling growing institutional confidence in Ethereum’s utility beyond speculation. The Layer-1 sector rose 3.93 per cent, while meme tokens like PEPE saw double-digit gains, indicating a broad-based risk appetite. This rotation from Bitcoin to higher-beta assets reflects a healthy bull market phase in which capital seeks asymmetric opportunities. I view this dynamic as evidence that the market is maturing. Investors are no longer treating crypto as a monolithic bet. They are differentiating between store-of-value narratives, smart contract platforms, and speculative tokens, allocating capital with increasing sophistication.

Data from CoinShares shows crypto investment products attracted US$1.06B last week, with Bitcoin ETFs accounting for US$793M for a third consecutive week. This consistency matters. Persistent demand reduces sell-side pressure and builds a firmer price floor, allowing technical structures to develop with greater reliability. Bitcoin remains the primary price-setter for the asset class. When it holds above key levels such as US$75,000, it provides psychological and mechanical support for altcoins. The near-term outlook hinges on this dynamic. If Bitcoin maintains its breakout and ETF inflows persist, the rally could extend toward the US$2.81T total market cap level. A break below US$72,300 support would signal consolidation, but the underlying institutional bid appears strong enough to absorb moderate profit-taking.

Technical traders watch the US$76,000 to US$78,000 zone as key resistance for Bitcoin. A clean break above this range would confirm bullish momentum and likely trigger algorithmic buying. Conversely, the ETH/BTC pair offers insight into altcoin sentiment. Continued strength here would confirm that risk appetite is broadening beyond Bitcoin. I monitor these relationships closely because they reveal whether momentum is sustainable or merely speculative froth. The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting on March 18- 19 serves as the key macro trigger. Any hawkish surprise could test the resilience of this rally, but the growing independence of crypto markets from traditional rate sensitivity may provide a buffer. We have seen this decoupling begin in prior cycles, and the current ETF-driven demand could accelerate that trend.

Broader economic data also warrants attention. US Pending Home Sales are expected to decline 1.2 per cent, reflecting the ongoing impact of elevated borrowing costs on the real estate market. This softness in housing could reinforce the Fed’s caution, yet markets appear to be looking through near-term data toward a second-half easing narrative. The critical question for the week is whether ETF inflows can overpower any hawkish sentiment from the Federal Reserve. If institutional capital continues to flow into regulated Bitcoin and ether products at current rates, the rally has room to extend. If not, we could see a pause as traders reassess risk through the end of the quarter.

This moment in markets reflects a broader evolution in how capital perceives digital assets. No longer fringe instruments, cryptocurrencies now function as macro-sensitive, institutionally accessible vehicles that respond to liquidity expectations, geopolitical risk, and technological adoption curves. The 53 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 is not a bug. It is a feature of an asset class integrating into the global financial system. I believe this integration will accelerate, driven by demand for transparent, programmable, and borderless financial infrastructure. The current rally, anchored by ETF flows and supported by improving technical structure, represents more than a short-term bounce. It signals a structural re-rating of crypto within multi-asset portfolios.

Looking ahead, the path for markets depends on three factors.

  • First, whether Bitcoin can hold above US$75,000 to maintain bullish momentum.
  • Second, whether the Federal Reserve signals a patient approach to policy, allowing risk assets to consolidate gains.
  • Third, whether geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain contained, preventing a renewed surge in energy prices.

The convergence of these variables will determine if the relief rally evolves into a sustained advance. For now, the tape suggests optimism. Institutional capital is committed, technical levels are holding, and the macro backdrop, while uncertain, is not deteriorating. In this environment, disciplined exposure to high-conviction themes like AI infrastructure and institutional crypto adoption offers a rational path forward. The market rewards those who distinguish between noise and signal, and the current data points to a constructive, if volatile, journey ahead.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

US-Japan deal, EU talks, and Japan’s Bitcoin bet: A new chapter for global finance

US-Japan deal, EU talks, and Japan’s Bitcoin bet: A new chapter for global finance

The global economy is buzzing with some pretty exciting developments. I will explore what’s happening with the US-Japan trade agreement, the whispers of a US-EU deal, the possibility of a Bank of Japan rate hike, and even a Japanese company’s bold leap into Bitcoin.

I’ll break it all down for you in a way that’s easy to follow, and throw in some of my thoughts.

The US-Japan trade deal: Easing tensions, boosting confidence

First up, let’s talk about the US-Japan trade deal that’s been making headlines. This agreement is a big deal, literally and figuratively. The US has agreed to slash its planned tariffs on Japanese goods from a steep 25 per cent down to a more reasonable 15 per cent, and that includes autos, which are a massive part of Japan’s export economy.

Imagine you’re a Japanese automaker – Toyota, Honda, Nissan, take your pick. This news is like a breath of fresh air. Lower tariffs mean your cars can roll into the US market more competitively, potentially boosting sales and giving your bottom line a nice lift.

For the US, this deal isn’t just about letting more Japanese cars in. It’s likely tied to some reciprocal benefits, like Japan agreeing to buy more American goods or invest in US projects. Think of it as a two-way street: Japan gets better market access, and the US might see more jobs or economic activity as a result. What I love about this is how it shows that diplomacy can still work in a world that’s often felt like a trade-war standoff. After years of tariff threats and uncertainty, this feels like a step toward stability.

Now, here’s where it gets really interesting. The easing of these trade tensions has markets buzzing about what the Bank of Japan might do next. For ages, Japan’s central bank has kept interest rates at rock bottom – we’re talking zero or near-zero levels – to jumpstart its economy.

But with trade pressures easing, there’s talk of a possible rate hike in 2025. That’s a huge shift! A rate hike would signal that Japan’s economy is finally finding its footing, which could strengthen the yen. On the flip side, it might make life trickier for Japanese exporters if their goods get pricier abroad. It’s a bold move if it happens, and I’m rooting for Japan to pull it off without rocking the boat too much.

US-EU tariff talks: Could this be round two?

While the US-Japan deal is grabbing the spotlight, there’s another story brewing across the Atlantic. Reports are swirling that the US might be closing in on a similar 15 per cent tariff agreement with the European Union. Picture this as a sequel to the Japan deal – same vibe, different players.

If it goes through, it’d mean lower tariffs on European goods coming into the US, possibly paired with European investment flowing back the other way. The Euro Stoxx 50, a key European stock index, jumped 1.0 per cent on the news, indicating that investors are already getting excited about the possibilities.

If the US can strike deals with both Japan and the EU, it’s like hitting the trifecta of trade diplomacy. Less tension with major partners could mean smoother sailing for global trade, which has been choppy lately. I think this could be a game-changer, not just for the economies involved but for the whole world.

Fewer trade barriers often lead to more growth, and who doesn’t want that? The catch is, we’re still waiting to see if this deal sticks – the August 1 deadline for reciprocal tariffs is looming, so the clock’s ticking.

Markets are loving it: A global rally unfolds

Okay, let’s check in on how the markets are reacting, because they’re not sitting still. In the US, stocks surged after the trade news broke. The S&P 500 climbed 0.78 per cent to a record 6,309.62, the Dow Jones surged 1.14 per cent, and even the tech-heavy NASDAQ edged up 0.61 per cent to 20,892.69, despite a slight dip later. That’s a solid rally, showing investors are feeling good about where things are headed.

It’s not just a US party, though. Over in Asia, the MSCI Asia ex Japan index shot up 1.4 per cent, and the HSCEI, which tracks Chinese stocks in Hong Kong, hit its highest close since October 2021. That’s a big deal – it’s like the optimism is contagious, spreading across borders and lifting spirits everywhere. I see this as a sign that when big economies play nice, everyone benefits. Today’s early trading in Asia was a bit mixed, and US futures hint at a choppy open, but the overall vibe is… Pretty upbeat.

Then there’s the bond market. US Treasury yields ticked up, with the 10-year yield rising five basis points to 4.38 per cent and the two-year yield hitting 3.88 per cent. Higher yields typically indicate that investors expect stronger growth or perhaps a bit more inflation in the future.

To me, this ties back to the trade deals – less uncertainty could mean a healthier economy, and that’s pushing yields up as people ditch safe bets for riskier plays. The US Dollar Index dipped 0.18 per cent, and gold slid 1.3 per cent, which backs that up. When safe-haven demand softens, it’s a clue that folks are feeling bolder.

Crypto’s wild ride: Greed, gains, and a breather

Now, let’s switch gears to the crypto market, because it’s been a wild ride over there too. Bitcoin and altcoins, such as Ethereum and XRP, have been on a tear lately, racking up massive gains over the past few weeks. It’s the kind of run that gets crypto fans hyped – and honestly, I get it.

Something is thrilling about watching digital assets soar. But today, the charts are showing a sea of red candles for most of the top 100 coins by market cap. After testing some significant resistance levels, it appears that the bulls are taking a breather.

Don’t let that fool you into thinking the party’s over, though. The Fear & Greed Index, which measures crypto sentiment, is sitting at 70 – firmly in greed territory and the highest since July 12. That suggests to me that this pullback might simply be profit-taking after an explosive stretch, rather than a full-on reversal.

I’ve seen this before in crypto: big runs often hit a pause before the next leg up. So, while the traditional markets are riding trade-deal optimism, crypto’s doing its own thing – cooling off but still brimming with bullish energy.

Kitabo’s Bitcoin bet: A Japanese twist

Speaking of crypto, here’s a curveball from Japan that caught my eye. Kitabo Co., Ltd, a company that makes synthetic fiber spun yarns and trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, just announced it’s jumping into Bitcoin.

They’re planning to buy ¥800 million – that’s about US$5.4 million – worth of BTC using dollar-cost averaging, where you spread out purchases over time to smooth out price swings. This isn’t just a random punt; Kitabo’s been bleeding cash, losing ¥115.6 million (US$785,000) in fiscal 2024, and they’re hoping Bitcoin can help turn things around.

I find this fascinating. Kitabo’s joining a growing club of Asian companies using Bitcoin as a treasury asset – think of it as a hedge against a weakening yen or a way to diversify when traditional options aren’t cutting it. They’re even calling this their full-scale entry into crypto and real-world asset businesses, which sounds ambitious for a yarn maker!

My take is that it’s a smart, if gutsy, move. Dollar-cost averaging reduces the risk of buying at a peak, and if Bitcoin continues to climb, it could be a lifeline for a struggling firm. Additionally, it’s another indication that crypto’s going mainstream, even in unexpected areas.

What do you think? Excited for what’s next? I know I am!

 

Source: https://e27.co/us-japan-deal-eu-talks-and-japans-bitcoin-bet-a-new-chapter-for-global-finance-20250724/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Bet on the Black? Take a punt on the Red? Or maybe put it all down on an NFT?

Bet on the Black? Take a punt on the Red? Or maybe put it all down on an NFT?

The global non-fungible token (NFT) market capitalization has dropped by 37.7% from its record high reached last year, but the Forkast NFT 500 Index suggests there is more to this market than the standard supply and demand dynamics behind rising and falling prices.

According to data tracked by analytics firm NFTGO, the NFT market peaked at US$36 billion in April 2022, US$14 billion more than today’s US$22 billion.

Over the same period, the Forkast 500 NFT Index, a newly launched performance measure of the global NFT market based on 500 smart contracts, plunged 84.71%.

The Forkast 500’s nosedive implies that if traders diversified their NFT portfolio and invested in the top 500 projects in the industry, they would be “rekt” – a crypto industry euphemism to describe heavy losses. According to Yehudah Petscher, a strategist at Forkast.News data partner CryptoSlam, NFT investors have adopted a casino-like trading behavior where they need to constantly move their funds to the “next hot project” to be successful.

“Liquidity gets recycled by savvy traders who frequently sell their NFTs, and use the funds to buy into new projects. From there, that same trader is looking to exit quickly and continue the cycle over and over again,” Petscher told Forkast.

House rules

Colin Johnson, chief executive of blockchain-based fine art investment platform Freeport, says that not all NFT traders may have been “rekt” as much as the Forkast 500 indicates.

“A well-diversified NFT trader will generally have another bag to work from. If they went all in on, say Moonbirds last May, they’re likely reeling and wanting some time away from crypto,” said Johnson.

Moonbirds, an Ethereum-based NFT collection that rewards investors for holding the assets longer, had a record-high floor price, or the lowest sale price of an NFT in a collection, of 25.5 ETH (US$39,142) on April 25, 2022, or a little over a week after its launch. It has since lost more than three quarters of its all-time high floor price and is currently priced at 5.6 ETH. The floor price represents the lowest price of an NFT within a collection.

While the casino rewards those that understand the rules of play, CryptoSlam’s data suggests that new buyers may be entering the game.

In February, the number of unique monthly buyers jumped to some 1 million addresses from 593,000 in January. February’s monthly customers tally was almost double that of the 529,000 sellers. On Feb. 26, daily unique NFT buyers rose to an all-time high of 166,000, following U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase’s free NFT airdrop.

“There is still large-scale activity from the top 1% of traders — recently to collect airdrops from new platforms like Blur,” Johnson said. “Most NFT collectors who are outside of that top 1% are very likely deep in the red.”

Blue chip cash

Much like cryptocurrencies, the high volatility of NFT prices poses challenges to estimating investors’ losses over a certain period of time.

“Holding a blue-chip NFT generally assures the owner that the NFT holds some inherent value,”  Anndy Lian, author of the book “NFT: From Zero to Hero,” told Forkast.

Bored Ape Yacht Club, the second-largest NFT collection by historic sales volume after play-to-earn game Axie Infinity, had a floor price of 63 ETH (US$96,705) on Thursday, a 27% drop from 90 ETH on April 2 last year, when the NFT market cap was at its highest.

Mutant Ape Yacht Club, the fourth-largest, fell 14% to 14.4 ETH.

“The top collections are primarily controlled by a small number of large-scale collectors. Average collectors’ wallets are in much worse shape this year than last,” added Johnson.

Petscher elaborated in the March 3 issue of CryptoSlam’s newsletter.

So how much in losses did a general NFT trader make as the digital assets markets tumbled from all-time highs?

“As a trader myself, I can tell you it’s much closer to 84%,” said Petscher.

 

 

Source: https://forkast.news/nft-casino-forkast-500-black-red/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j