May 19th, 2026

Oil spikes, bonds crash, Bitcoin drops: Here is what comes next

Bitcoin’s retreat to US$76,632.16 reflects more than a routine correction. It captures a moment when geopolitical friction, macro uncertainty, and technical structure converged to test market conviction. The trigger came from escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. A social media warning from Donald Trump stating that time is running out for Tehran abruptly shifted sentiment.

Risk assets wobbled as Brent crude surged above US$112 per barrel before cooling toward US$107 to US$109, following diplomatic appeals from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE that prompted a temporary pause in military action. That energy spike reignited inflation concerns and pushed expectations toward a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve policy, a headwind for any asset that thrives on abundant liquidity.

The macro shock exposed fragile positioning in crypto markets. Over US$607 million in bullish long positions were forcefully liquidated within 24 hours, part of a broader US$677 million wave of leveraged crypto long liquidations. When price fails to hold key levels, algorithmic selling and margin calls can accelerate moves far beyond fundamental justification. Bitcoin’s inability to clear its 200-day moving average near US$82,000 added technical pressure.

That rejection dragged the asset down to a critical support zone around US$76,000. Analysts note this level must hold to prevent a steeper structural breakdown toward US$65,000. The 200-week moving average near US$69,000 serves as a long-term trend reference, not a magnetic target price to be hit. Moving averages smooth past action; they do not dictate future paths.

The current weekly chart signals weakening momentum rather than outright capitulation. Price trades below shorter-term exponential moving averages but remains well above the 200-week trend line. The MACD indicator appears relatively controlled, suggesting the selloff lacks the extreme divergence often seen at major bottoms or tops. In strong trends, Bitcoin frequently establishes higher lows long before testing its slowest averages.

A move toward the low US$70,000s remains realistic if risk sentiment deteriorates further, but declaring US$61,000 inevitable simply because the 200-week moving average exists feels oversimplified. Markets respect context, and right now that context includes a regulatory landscape that is quietly evolving.

While traders navigate short-term volatility, Washington advanced a potentially transformative piece of legislation. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, known as the CLARITY Act, cleared a key hurdle when the Senate Banking Committee approved it in a bipartisan 15 to nine vote. This markup represents the first time a comprehensive crypto market structure bill has gained such momentum in the Senate.

The legislation aims to split oversight between the SEC and CFTC, define which digital assets qualify as digital commodities, and establish clearer registration and compliance frameworks for exchanges, brokers, and custodians. Provisions like a mature blockchain test and safe harbours for developers and noncustodial wallets seek to protect open source projects and peer-to-peer usage. If enacted broadly as described, large networks such as Bitcoin could receive clearer commodity treatment, easing institutional participation and exchange compliance.

Significant hurdles remain before the CLARITY Act becomes law. The bill must be merged with a separate Senate Agriculture Committee version, then secure 60 votes on the Senate floor, which requires at least seven Democratic votes. Ethics disputes over officials’ crypto holdings, the treatment of DeFi protocols and stablecoins, and a tight calendar window from June to early August, before recess and election politics intensify, all pose challenges.

Galaxy Digital’s research arm currently estimates a three-in-four chance that the bill becomes law in 2026, with an optimistic window for a presidential signature around early August if Congress moves quickly. For crypto participants, the critical signal will be whether Senate leaders schedule and win that 60-vote floor passage in the coming weeks. Without it, current momentum can still stall.

Global financial markets mirrored this fragmentation on 19 May 2026. US equity indices finished mixed as money rotated out of high-flying technology names and into defensive assets. The S&P 500 edged down 0.07 per cent to 7,403.05 while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.51 per cent to 26,090.73, dragged by a sharp correction in semiconductors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.32 per cent to 49,686.12, supported by energy and traditional industrial components. Fixed-income markets drove much of the anxiety.

The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly breached 4.60 per cent, a fresh one-year high, while 30-year yields hovered above 5.10 per cent. Hotter-than-expected inflation metrics tied to Middle East tensions led traders to price in no 2026 rate cuts, with some shifting bets toward a potential hike later this year. International bond markets echoed the stress, with Japanese Government Bond 30-year yields touching multi-decade highs and UK Gilts experiencing similar spikes.

Sector performance highlighted the rotation. Memory chip and AI infrastructure names were hit hard after Seagate management expressed near-term supply-chain and demand constraints. Seagate fell roughly seven per cent to eight per cent, Micron declined six per cent, and Nvidia slipped two per cent ahead of its highly anticipated earnings release.

Meanwhile, defensive sectors and energy giants like Chevron gained ground, helping rescue the Dow. The equal-weighted S&P 500 notably outperformed its tech-heavy cap-weighted counterpart, underscoring the breadth of the rotation. In commodities, Brent crude cooled slightly as geopolitical fears eased marginally, while spot gold managed a slight rebound near US$4,589 per ounce, finding support from central bank accumulation despite a firmer US dollar.

These crosscurrents matter for Bitcoin’s path. The asset does not trade in isolation. It reacts to real yields, dollar strength, risk sentiment, and regulatory signals.

Source: https://e27.co/oil-spikes-bonds-crash-bitcoin-drops-here-is-what-comes-next-20260519/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

October 10th, 2025

Profit-taking and peril: Equities consolidate, bonds turn hawkish, and Bitcoin tests its limits

The past week has seen a noticeable retreat in global risk appetite, with traders and institutional investors adopting a more cautious stance ahead of the third-quarter earnings season. This consolidation phase reflects a natural pause following a strong rally in equities, with market participants reassessing valuations and positioning themselves for potential volatility once corporate earnings reports begin to roll in.

US equities closed lower on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 0.5 per cent, the S&P 500 down 0.3 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite slipping 0.1 per cent. These modest declines underscore a broader theme of profit-taking rather than panic selling, suggesting that the market remains fundamentally sound but increasingly selective.

Adding to the uncertainty, key US economic data releases have been disrupted by the ongoing government shutdown. Weekly jobless claims and wholesale trade figures, initially scheduled for Thursday, remain delayed, depriving analysts of timely insights into labour market resilience and inventory trends. Market attention now shifts to Friday’s release of the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for October.

Given that consumer confidence often serves as a leading indicator of spending behaviour and economic momentum, this report could significantly influence near-term market direction, especially if it reveals a sharp deterioration in household outlooks amid persistent inflation concerns or rising borrowing costs.

Meanwhile, the bond market continues to reflect a nuanced outlook on monetary policy. US Treasury yields edged higher, with the benchmark 10-year yield climbing 2.1 basis points to 4.138 per cent and the two-year yield rising 1.2 basis points to 3.593 per cent. The modest uptick in yields suggests that investors are recalibrating expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts, possibly in response to resilient economic data or hawkish commentary from central bank officials. This dynamic places additional pressure on equities, particularly growth-oriented sectors that are sensitive to higher discount rates.

Currency and commodity markets also mirrored the prevailing risk-off mood. The US Dollar Index strengthened by 0.6 per cent to reach 99.54, benefiting from its traditional safe-haven status during periods of market caution. Conversely, gold retreated 1.6 per cent to US$3976 per ounce after briefly touching a record high.

The pullback in the precious metal appears driven by profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift in its appeal as a hedge against uncertainty. Similarly, Brent crude oil settled 1.6 per cent lower at US$65.22 per barrel, pressured by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the broader retreat from risk assets.

In Asia, equity markets displayed a mixed performance. The Chinese CSI 300 index surged 1.48 per cent on Thursday, its first trading day following the week-long National Day holiday. The rally was led by sectors tied to artificial intelligence and gold, reflecting both domestic policy optimism and global commodity trends.

However, early trading sessions on Friday showed more subdued activity, indicating that the initial post-holiday euphoria may be giving way to more cautious positioning. Notably, US equity index futures point to a higher open on Wall Street, suggesting that the recent dip may have created attractive entry points for bargain hunters.

Amid this backdrop, Bitcoin has emerged as a focal point of intense speculation and technical scrutiny. The cryptocurrency is currently trading above US$121,000, yet it faces mounting bearish pressure that could trigger a test of critical support levels. On Thursday, Bitcoin briefly dipped below the psychologically important US$120,000 mark, reaching an intraday low of US$119,810 before recovering slightly. This move, which represented a nearly three per cent decline in a single session, highlights the asset’s vulnerability despite its lofty valuation. Technical indicators reinforce this cautionary tone.

The hourly chart reveals a developing bearish trend line, with resistance forming around US$122,750. Bitcoin now trades below both the US$121,500 level and its 100-hour Simple Moving Average, signalling weakening short-term momentum. Immediate resistance sits at US$121,750, while the hourly MACD shows increasing strength in negative territory and the RSI has fallen below the pivotal 50 level, both classic signs of bearish dominance.

The derivatives market further underscores this fragile sentiment. Total derivatives volume plummeted by 15.24 per cent to US$478.15 trillion, while open interest in perpetual contracts declined by 1.29 per cent. This contraction coincided with Bitcoin’s drop below US$124,000 and triggered approximately US$700 million in liquidations.

The high leverage embedded in the system, evidenced by open interest standing at US$1.12 trillion, amplified the downside as leveraged positions were forcibly unwound. Traders appear to be reducing exposure in response to stretched technical conditions, with the 14-day RSI hovering near 69.88, just shy of overbought territory. Moreover, the spot-to-perpetuals trading ratio of 0.22 indicates that derivatives activity continues to dominate the market, rendering it especially susceptible to sharp swings and cascading liquidations.

Compounding Bitcoin’s challenges, the altcoin ecosystem is experiencing its own wave of selling pressure. New token launches such as ASTER and MIRA have faced immediate post-listing declines, driven by large-scale airdrops and token unlocks. ASTER’s Phase 2 airdrop released four per cent of its total supply, prompting whales to offload 28.3 million tokens and driving the price down by 10 per cent.

Similarly, MIRA’s circulating supply surged by 191 million tokens following its Binance listing, overwhelming market demand. These events highlight a recurring pattern in the crypto space: token unlocks often lead to immediate sell-offs, particularly when projects lack robust utility or sustainable demand drivers. The Altcoin Season Index has consequently fallen by 11.76 per cent, signalling a clear rotation of capital back into Bitcoin as investors seek relative safety within the digital asset class.

Regulatory uncertainty adds another layer of complexity. In the United States, Senate negotiations on comprehensive crypto market-structure legislation have stalled, with Democratic proposals on decentralised finance (DeFi) oversight meeting resistance from Republican lawmakers. This legislative gridlock prolongs the regulatory limbo that has long plagued the industry, creating headwinds for institutional adoption and altcoin valuations.

However, there remains a counterbalancing bullish narrative. Former President Donald Trump’s recent overtures toward establishing a US strategic Bitcoin reserve have reignited speculation about potential pro-crypto policies should he return to office. While purely aspirational at this stage, such rhetoric provides a psychological floor for long-term Bitcoin bulls who view regulatory clarity, even if delayed, as inevitable.

In sum, the current market environment reflects a delicate equilibrium between optimism and caution. Equities are consolidating after a strong run, bonds are pricing in a more hawkish Fed, and commodities are reacting to shifting risk sentiment. Bitcoin, despite its record-breaking price, shows clear signs of technical fatigue and structural vulnerability.

Yet, beneath the short-term turbulence lies a persistent belief in its long-term potential, particularly if it can overcome key resistance levels and navigate the evolving regulatory landscape. For now, investors remain in a holding pattern, awaiting the next catalyst, whether from corporate earnings, economic data, or policy developments, to determine the next major market move.

Source: https://e27.co/profit-taking-and-peril-equities-consolidate-bonds-turn-hawkish-and-bitcoin-tests-its-limits-20251010/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

September 3rd, 2025

The great repricing: How fiscal anxiety is reshaping global markets from bonds to Bitcoin

Global markets have entered a phase of heightened caution as fiscal stability concerns ripple across major economies, prompting investors to reassess risk assets and flock toward safer havens.

Investors pulled back from equities amid worries over government debt levels and potential policy missteps, leading to declines in key indices. This retreat reflects broader anxieties about how governments will manage swelling deficits in an environment of elevated interest rates and geopolitical tensions.

This pullback serves as a necessary correction after months of optimism driven by central bank easing expectations, but it also highlights vulnerabilities that could persist if fiscal policies fail to instil confidence. The interplay between rising yields and weakening currencies underscores a market grappling with the realities of post-pandemic debt burdens, where any sign of instability can quickly amplify losses.

US equities under pressure

In the United States, stock markets experienced notable declines, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.7 per cent, the NASDAQ falling 0.8 per cent, and the Dow Jones slipping 0.6 per cent. These moves came as traders digested ongoing fiscal debates in Washington, including discussions around debt ceilings and spending priorities that could strain the economy further.

Federal Reserve outlook and market pause

The broader context involves speculation about Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, with markets pricing in a high probability of a September cut amid softening economic data. From my perspective, these dips in equities represent a healthy pause rather than the start of a deeper bear market, as underlying corporate earnings remain robust in sectors like technology and consumer goods.

If fiscal concerns escalate into actual policy gridlock, we could see more pronounced selling pressure, especially in overvalued tech stocks that have led the rally so far this year.

Dollar strength amid global uncertainty

The US Dollar Index strengthened by 0.6 per cent to close at 98.33, benefiting from its safe-haven status amid global uncertainties. This uptick pushed the index higher to 98.37 in subsequent trading, reflecting weakness in counterparts like the British pound and Japanese yen.

The dollar’s resilience stems from relative economic strength in the US compared to Europe and Asia, where growth forecasts have been revised downward due to trade tensions and energy supply risks. I believe the dollar’s strength will continue in the near term, acting as a buffer against imported inflation, but it risks exacerbating export challenges for American firms if it appreciates too aggressively.

Rising yields and treasury market dynamics

US Treasuries faced selling pressure, with yields on the 10-year note climbing five basis points to around 4.28 per cent. This increase followed weakness in European bonds, where longer-dated securities bore the brunt of investor unease. The par yield curve data for early 2025 shows a steepening trend, indicating market expectations for higher long-term rates amid persistent inflation worries.

In my opinion, this yield surge signals investor skepticism about the Fed’s ability to engineer a soft landing without reigniting price pressures, particularly if fiscal spending remains unchecked. Treasuries, traditionally a refuge, now compete with alternatives like gold, which offer hedges against both inflation and currency debasement.

UK fiscal challenges and gilt sell-off

Across the Atlantic, the United Kingdom grapples with its own fiscal headaches, as long-term bond yields soared to levels not seen since 1998. The 30-year gilt yield jumped to 5.72 per cent, driven by a sell-off that also dragged the pound lower by as much as 1.5 per cent against the dollar.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces mounting pressure to clarify budgetary plans, with investors fretting over potential tax hikes or spending cuts that could stifle growth. The pound traded at a three-week low of 1.3375 against the dollar, highlighting the currency’s vulnerability to domestic policy shifts.

I see this as a critical juncture for the UK economy, where Starmer’s administration must balance fiscal prudence with economic stimulus to avoid a prolonged sterling slump. The surge in yields, while painful for borrowers, might force necessary reforms, but it risks tipping the economy into recession if not managed carefully.

Commodities: Gold and oil diverge

Commodities provided a mixed picture, with gold surging 2.2 per cent to a record high of US$3,533 per ounce. This rally gained traction from expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns over the central bank’s independence in the face of political pressures.

Analysts project gold averaging US$3,220 in 2025, buoyed by seasonal demand and monetary easing. Brent crude oil edged up 0.7 per cent, as traders weighed supply risks from renewed US sanctions on Russia and OPEC+’s reluctance to increase output. Ukrainian drone attacks and geopolitical escalations have kept prices supported, with Brent trading around US$68 per barrel.

Gold’s ascent underscores its role as a premier safe-haven asset in uncertain times, potentially outperforming equities if fiscal woes deepen. Oil’s modest gains, meanwhile, reflect a delicate balance between supply disruptions and demand concerns, with OPEC+’s upcoming meeting likely to dictate near-term direction.

Asian markets and big tech boost

Asian equity indices opened lower in early trading, mirroring the global risk-off mood, while US equity futures ticked higher, supported by after-hours gains in Alphabet following a favourable antitrust ruling.

A federal judge decided Google would not need to divest its Chrome browser, sparking an eight per cent surge in Alphabet’s stock. This decision avoided harsher penalties, boosting investor confidence in big tech. I interpret this as a positive for the broader market, as it reduces regulatory overhang on tech giants, potentially fuelling a rebound in US indices despite Asian weakness.

In foreign exchange markets, the USD/JPY pair rose 0.8 per cent to 148.40, its highest since early August, amid fiscal concerns in Japan. Near-term support for GBP/USD lies at 1.3500-1.3560, while resistance for USD/JPY is at 148.40-148.90. These levels suggest potential consolidation as traders await clearer signals from central banks.

Bitcoin momentum and institutional interest

Turning to cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin rose 1.63 per cent to US$111,342.85 over the past 24 hours, outpacing the broader market’s 1.6 per cent gain and reversing a 2.95 per cent decline over the prior 30 days. This uptick draws from bullish institutional sentiment and technical momentum.

JPMorgan’s declaration that Bitcoin appears undervalued relative to gold stands out as a key driver. The bank notes Bitcoin’s volatility has plummeted from 60 per cent to 30 per cent over six months, the narrowest gap with gold ever recorded. Their volatility-adjusted model pegs Bitcoin’s fair value at US$126,000, about 13 per cent above current levels.

This assessment positions Bitcoin as digital gold, attracting risk-averse institutions. BlackRock’s US$58 billion stake in Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury allocations, now holding six per cent of supply, bolster this demand. However, Bitcoin lingers 12 per cent below its recent all-time high, offering upside potential if stability holds.

I find this JPMorgan call compelling, as it marks a shift from traditional finance’s skepticism toward embracing Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class. Reduced volatility not only draws in more capital but also diminishes the narrative of Bitcoin as a speculative gamble, paving the way for broader adoption.

Whale accumulation and custody shifts present a mixed but largely positive impact. Institutions like MicroStrategy have added 41,875 BTC since April 2025, while custodians such as Coinbase and Anchorage Digital manage about 80 per cent of ETF-held Bitcoin. Exchange reserves have hit multi-year lows as coins move to custody, reducing immediate sell pressure. This centralisation raises risks if regulators scrutinise custodians or liquidity issues arise. Retail participation stays muted, capping organic demand.

Recent data shows whales holding 1,000-10,000 BTC adding 16,000 coins during dips, while smaller wallets sold off. From my standpoint, this dynamic favours bulls in the long run, as institutional hoarding creates scarcity, but it demands vigilance against concentration risks that could amplify volatility in downturns.

Technically, Bitcoin shows neutral to bullish signals. The price sits above the 200-day simple moving average at US$101,388, with the 50-day SMA at US$114,675 nearing a golden cross. The RSI-14 at 45.54 indicates neutral momentum, while the MACD at -1,830 suggests consolidation. Fibonacci retracement points to resistance at US$113,836 and US$115,864.

A golden cross could draw algorithmic traders, but mixed indicators imply a period of range-bound trading. Predictions see Bitcoin reaching US$120,593 by early September. I view these technicals as supportive of gradual upside, particularly if Bitcoin breaks above US$115,864, which might trigger fresh buying. Failure to do so could test support at US$107,271, but overall, the setup aligns with institutional optimism.

On X, discussions echo this sentiment, with users highlighting JPMorgan’s undervalued call and whale accumulations as bullish catalysts. Posts note corporate treasuries going crypto-native, like SharpLink Gaming’s ETH buys, reinforcing Bitcoin’s appeal. Semantic searches reveal rising institutional sentiment since August, with whales adding significant holdings.

In my opinion, these trends solidify Bitcoin’s trajectory toward US$126,000, driven by convergence with gold and structural demand shifts. While global fiscal concerns weigh on traditional markets, Bitcoin’s resilience positions it as a standout performer, potentially decoupling from equity weakness if adoption accelerates.

Conclusion: Safe havens and Bitcoin’s rise

In summary, the retreat in risk sentiment amid fiscal worries has pressured stocks and currencies, but commodities like gold and Bitcoin shine as hedges. The UK’s bond turmoil exemplifies broader challenges, while US futures hint at selective recoveries.

For Bitcoin, the combination of undervaluation signals, whale activity, and technical poise suggests substantial upside ahead. As a journalist tracking these developments, I remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s role in portfolios, viewing current dips as entry points in a maturing asset class.

Source: https://e27.co/the-great-repricing-how-fiscal-anxiety-is-reshaping-global-markets-from-bonds-to-bitcoin-20250903/