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Bitcoin dominance hits 59 per cent: Is the altcoin season over?

Bitcoin dominance hits 59 per cent: Is the altcoin season over?

US equities ended Thursday on a high note, breaking a brief two-day slide as optimism around artificial intelligence reignited investor appetite. The catalyst came from across the Pacific: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s strong earnings and bullish 2026 guidance reassured markets that AI demand remains robust rather than speculative. This sentiment lifted chipmakers such as Nvidia and ASML to record levels, pushing the Nasdaq Composite up 0.25 per cent to 23,530.02, while the Dow surged 0.60 per cent to 49,442.44 and the S&P 500 edged higher by 0.26 per cent to close at 6,944.47.

Meanwhile, Asian markets extended their momentum into Friday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index hitting a new all-time high and poised for its fourth straight weekly gain, the longest such streak since May, fuelled largely by tech strength, including a jump in Indian equities after Infosys delivered upbeat results.

In contrast, the crypto market pulled back modestly, shedding 0.75 per cent over the past 24 hours. This dip reflects a classic post-rally consolidation, but deeper forces are at play. Bitcoin dominance climbed to 59.12 per cent, signalling a flight to relative safety within the digital asset space as traders rotated out of altcoins.

The Altcoin Season Index declined 11 per cent in a day, underscoring waning enthusiasm for riskier tokens, a pattern reminiscent of 2025, when Bitcoin outperformed altcoins by 38 per cent amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Layer-1 networks such as Solana and Ethereum lag, and social sentiment metrics indicate declining momentum for smaller-cap projects. If the Altcoin Season Index remains below 25, this Bitcoin-centric phase could persist.

Regulatory ambiguity added another layer of caution. In Washington, the CLARITY Act stalled due to disputes over whether stablecoin issuers should be allowed to pay interest, a seemingly technical detail with profound implications for how regulators classify digital assets. Simultaneously, Binance temporarily halted deposits and withdrawals for several tokens, including ARB and 1INCH, citing technical reviews.

Such moves often stem from compliance checks, but they fuel market-wide nervousness, particularly among altcoin traders who rely on liquidity and exchange access. Bitcoin itself remains somewhat insulated. US spot ETFs now hold US$126.8 billion in assets under management, providing a structural bid that buffers against retail-driven volatility.

Perhaps the most telling signal comes from derivatives markets. Open interest in perpetual futures swelled by 18.9 per cent to US$655 billion, but this surge coincided with US$68 million in Bitcoin liquidations, US$55 million from long positions alone. Funding rates spiked by 60 per cent, revealing overcrowded bullish bets.

With Bitcoin’s RSI hovering between 65 and 78, the asset remains technically overbought despite the minor pullback. This suggests that the market is undergoing a necessary deleveraging phase rather than a fundamental reversal. Such corrections are typical after sharp rallies, especially when leverage builds rapidly.

From my viewpoint, this moment encapsulates the diverging narratives shaping financial markets in early 2026. Traditional equities, particularly those tied to AI infrastructure, benefit from clear earnings visibility and institutional backing. TSMC’s forecast acts as a proxy for real-world AI adoption, not just hype. Crypto, however, still operates in a regulatory grey zone where policy delays and exchange actions can trigger outsized reactions.

The current rotation into Bitcoin reflects a maturing market. Investors increasingly treat it as digital gold or a macro hedge, while reserving altcoins for higher-conviction, higher-risk scenarios. That said, Ethereum’s staking activity continues to reach all-time highs in transaction volume, suggesting an underlying utility that may eventually decouple it from broader risk-off moves.

The key levels to watch remain Bitcoin’s US$93,000 support and the Altcoin Season Index threshold. If Bitcoin holds firm and the index rebounds above 25, altcoins could stage a recovery. But if regulatory headwinds intensify or macro data shifts, the safety-first trend will likely deepen. For now, the dip appears corrective, a pause for breath after a sprint, not the start of a retreat.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-dominance-hits-59-per-cent-is-the-altcoin-season-over-20260116/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Crypto rallies 4.5 per cent amid stock sell-off: Smart money is moving fast

Crypto rallies 4.5 per cent amid stock sell-off: Smart money is moving fast

Markets on January 13 and 14, 2026, signal a divergence between traditional finance and digital assets. In the United States, equities retreated as investors weighed mixed signals from inflation data and the opening salvos of earnings season. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 400 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted smaller but still notable declines. Financial stocks led the decline after JPMorgan Chase missed expectations on investment banking fees, underscoring how even modest disappointments can ripple through a market already cautious about the sustainability of growth.

Meanwhile, across the Pacific, Asian markets painted a more optimistic picture. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 0.9 per cent to breach the 54,000 mark for the first time in history, propelled by a weakening yen that slid past 159 per dollar and speculation around a potential snap election. Elsewhere in Asia, gains were modest but consistent, reflecting regional confidence that contrasts with Wall Street’s hesitation.

Commodities and currencies mirrored this tension between caution and opportunity. Gold pulled back slightly from its record high of US$4,644 an ounce to settle at US$4,590, suggesting that while safe-haven demand remains elevated, some investors are rotating into riskier assets. Crude oil rose 2.5 per cent to US$61 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions over potential US tariffs targeting nations trading with Iran. This shows that energy markets remain sensitive to policy-driven uncertainty. Currency markets showed similar stress, with the yen continuing its slide while the euro held steady near US$1.1645.

From my perspective, what stands out is not only the divergence between US and Asian equity performance but also the concurrent surge in crypto markets. Bitcoin reclaimed US$95,000, triggering a cascade of algorithmic buying and liquidating US$62 million in short positions within 24 hours. This move was not speculative noise. It was structurally reinforced by institutional momentum. Morgan Stanley’s filing for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs marks a pivotal expansion of regulated crypto access, following Grayscale’s own exploratory filings and bolstered by pro-crypto political rhetoric. The numbers speak clearly: US$571 million flowed into Bitcoin ETFs this week, while Ethereum attracted US$1.24 billion. These are not marginal bets. They represent deep conviction from traditional finance players.

The technical breakout in Bitcoin coincided with a sharp spike in funding rates, up 87 per cent in one day, as leveraged traders scrambled to cover shorts after the price pierced the US$94,500 Fibonacci resistance. Open interest fell by nearly 10 per cent, indicating a wave of deleveraging rather than a new speculative buildup. That distinction matters. It suggests the rally has a foundation beyond hype. It reflects both institutional validation and a clearing of excessive bearish positioning.

Caution remains warranted. While cooler-than-expected US CPI data offered relief, bond markets still price in no Federal Reserve rate cuts until mid-2026. China’s consumer prices rose 0.8 per cent year-over-year, the fastest since early 2023, even as producer prices stayed deflationary, hinting at fragile domestic demand. These macro crosscurrents mean that while crypto enjoys a moment of strength, it does so against a backdrop where traditional markets are still searching for clarity.

In conclusion, January 14 presents a world in which legacy markets tread carefully amid earnings scrutiny and geopolitical friction, while digital assets surge amid institutional adoption and technical triggers. The real test will come in whether Bitcoin can hold above US$94,000 without immediate profit-taking. If it does, this rally may signal more than a short-term bounce. It could mark the beginning of a new phase in which crypto operates not as a fringe asset but as a core component of diversified portfolios.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-rallies-4-5-per-cent-amid-stock-sell-off-smart-money-is-moving-fast-20260114/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Fed rate cut odds hit 85 per cent: Here’s how stocks, crypto, and gold are reacting

Fed rate cut odds hit 85 per cent: Here’s how stocks, crypto, and gold are reacting

Market movements have shaped a complex but increasingly hopeful outlook across both traditional and digital asset markets, primarily fuelled by evolving expectations about Federal Reserve policy. Central to this momentum is a mounting belief that interest rate cuts are on the horizon. Financial markets now place an 84.9 per cent likelihood on a 25 basis point reduction at the December FOMC meeting. This shift in sentiment has ignited a widespread rally, pushing equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies higher in a coordinated risk-on surge that underscores how tightly asset prices are now linked to macroeconomic signals.

The labour market data released on November 26 provided critical fuel for this optimism. Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 fell to 216,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April and coming in well below the median forecast of 226,000. This third consecutive weekly decline signals continued resilience in the employment sector, but in the current environment where inflation appears to be moderating and growth concerns linger, the market interpreted the report as dovish. This interpretation aligns with UOB’s ongoing forecast of a 25 bps cut in December, now seemingly corroborated by real-time market pricing.

Equity markets responded enthusiastically. On Wednesday, November 26, the S&P 500 rose 0.7 per cent, the Nasdaq gained 0.8 per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.7 per cent, with technology stocks leading the charge. The gains extended a four-day winning streak in a holiday-shortened week, underscoring investor confidence in a pivot toward looser monetary conditions.

Notably, the US market closed early in observance of Thanksgiving, leaving Asian markets to carry the momentum into the next trading session. This global transmission of sentiment was evident in South Korea’s KOSPI, which surged 2.67 per cent on November 26 to close at 3,960.87, its strongest single-day advance in weeks. Regional indices across Asia followed suit, reinforcing a strategic tilt toward non-US value and mid-cap equities as sources of alpha, particularly in technology and dividend-yielding sectors.

Fixed-income markets reflected a more cautious recalibration. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held steady at approximately 4.00 per cent, while the 2-year yield edged slightly higher to 3.47 per cent, resulting in a 10Y-2Y spread of about 53 basis points. This modest flattening suggests that while near-term rate expectations are shifting, longer-term inflation and growth concerns remain anchored. Nevertheless, the widening spread between equities and bonds is beginning to make fixed income more attractive, prompting institutional investors to accumulate high-quality bonds in anticipation of a Fed pivot gradually. The relative stability of the 10-year yield amid equity rallies suggests the bond market is not fully pricing in aggressive easing but remains open to modest cuts if inflation data cooperate.

Currency and commodity markets further validated the risk-on narrative. The US dollar weakened broadly, with Asian currencies like the Korean won and Singapore dollar strengthening as the expected narrowing of the Fed-Asia yield differential reduced the appeal of dollar-denominated assets. Brent crude oil edged higher to US$63.04 per barrel, supported by expectations that lower interest rates could stimulate global demand. Even more striking was gold’s ascent to US$4,163.51 per ounce, a 0.8 per cent increase that reaffirmed its role as a defensive hedge amid monetary uncertainty. Gold’s performance, up nearly 58 per cent year-to-date, reflects not just inflation hedging but also a broader loss of confidence in fiat monetary regimes, a theme that resonates deeply in the cryptocurrency space.

Speaking of crypto, the digital asset market rallied 2.5 per cent over the 24 hours ending November 27, reclaiming a market capitalisation near US$3.07 trillion, a key Fibonacci retracement level. This rebound emerged from a state of extreme fear, as measured by sentiment indicators, and closely tracked the Nasdaq’s gains, with a 24-hour correlation of plus 0.84. Three interlocking forces drove this recovery.

First, technical indicators signalled a classic oversold bounce. Bitcoin’s RSI-14 had dipped to 36.09, bordering on oversold territory, while the MACD histogram turned positive, reflecting a shift in momentum. This setup was amplified by a short squeeze; US$74 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, with 87 per cent attributed to short sellers. Such dynamics often accelerate upward price action as forced buying meets opportunistic dip-buying.

Second, Ethereum witnessed significant off-exchange accumulation. On-chain data from Santiment showed a 49 per cent weekly decline in ETH exchange reserves, equivalent to roughly US$4 billion in value. This movement suggests large holders, whales, and institutions are withdrawing supply from liquid markets, tightening available float, and reducing immediate sell pressure. The trend was reinforced by BlackRock’s ETH ETF, which recorded US$92.6 million in inflows on November 24, its first positive flow in two weeks. This institutional re-engagement, occurring just as ETH tests the 3,000-dollar resistance level, points to strategic positioning ahead of potential macro catalysts.

Third, macro tailwinds provided the overarching narrative. With an 85 per cent market-implied probability of a December rate cut, risk assets across the board benefited from renewed liquidity expectations. However, sustainability remains uncertain. Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple, a metric comparing daily miner revenue to its 365-day average, stands at 0.67, above historical bear market bottoms but not yet signalling undervaluation. This suggests that while the macro backdrop is supportive, crypto-specific fundamentals have not yet reached a point of compelling long-term value.

In conclusion, today’s rally is a fragile synthesis of technical relief, institutional accumulation, and macro optimism. The alignment between crypto and equities, particularly the Nasdaq, has turned digital assets into a high-beta proxy for Fed policy expectations. This very correlation exposes crypto to reversal if incoming data, such as the US PCE inflation report, contradicts rate-cut assumptions. Should the Fed deliver as expected, the stage may be set for a sustained recovery. But without improvements in on-chain fundamentals, network activity, user adoption, and real yield generation, the rally may prove ephemeral, a mere leveraged echo of traditional market sentiment rather than a foundation for a new paradigm.

 

Source: https://e27.co/fed-rate-cut-odds-hit-85-per-cent-heres-how-stocks-crypto-and-gold-are-reacting-20251127/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j