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Did the Fed just accidentally kick off the next crypto bull run? Or just a dead cat bounce?

Did the Fed just accidentally kick off the next crypto bull run? Or just a dead cat bounce?

On September 18, 2026, global markets rose together. Asian stocks and bonds gained as oil extended its decline. European equities climbed. The STOXX 600 rose 0.9 per cent to 642.6 points. Mining and automotive sectors led those gains. The FTSE index gained 1.2 per cent. That marked its best one-day performance in over two months.

The Bank of England halted sales of long-dated gilts. That decision supported UK assets. The crypto market joined the rally. It rose 0.59 per cent to US$2.62T in 24 hours. The Federal Reserve had raised rates by 25 basis points on September 17, 2026. That was the first hike since 2023. Markets had fully priced in the move. The reaction became a relief rally. Investors focused on the end of the tightening cycle rather than the hike itself. That shift in sentiment lifted nearly every risk asset.

The economic backdrop aided risk assets. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7 per cent to US$101.20 a barrel. Cheaper oil reduces inflationary pressure. US 10-year Treasury yields retreated from recent multi-year highs. Lower yields ease pressure on global equities. They also reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as digital assets and gold. Spot gold remained steady following earlier weekly fluctuations. This combination of cheaper oil and steady bond yields created a helpful climate for digital assets. This macro mix gave traders a reason to add exposure.

The asset class traded as a rates-sensitive instrument on that day. Its correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.43. That is a moderate positive reading. It is lower than the 71 per cent figure that appeared in May of this year. The Bitcoin-gold tie was above 50 per cent at the start of this month. Some short-term gauges reached 0.8. That still shows a meaningful tie, but it is not 79 per cent. These figures indicate a looser connection than some earlier reports suggested. That matters for how investors interpret the advance. It does not mean digital assets ignore macro. It means the link varies with the news cycle. On this occasion, the Fed decision and the oil move mattered more than the usual internal drivers.

Group rotation amplified the market-wide move. The AI Applications category gained 5.83 per cent. The Privacy group rose 3.98 per cent. Independent verification did not directly confirm that exact figure. The broader privacy space has surged 213 per cent since October 2025.

Zcash drove almost all of that rise. Zcash posted a 13 per cent daily advance on September 16. It jumped another 15 per cent on September 17 following the Fed decision. Protocol upgrades and institutional interest fuelled that move. These movements indicate that market appetite extends beyond Bitcoin. Funds are seeking alpha in specialised narratives with strong fundamentals. That broadening of strength across asset classes is a healthy sign. It suggests the advance has a base value greater than one coin.

The near-term path for digital assets hinges on key technical marks. The current market cap sits just above the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at US$2.6T. That mark now acts as support. The immediate trigger for the advance is past. The focus shifts to whether the advance can sustain. A close above the 23.6 per cent Fib threshold at US$2.67T could pave the way for a retest of the yearly high at US$2.73T. Failure to hold US$2.6T risks a pullback toward the US$2.57T to US$2.53T base zone. The 61.8 per cent Fib sits at US$2.57T. A break below that mark could signal a return to range trading.

My point of view is cautiously bullish. The combination of a digested rate increase and strong group rotation points to underlying strength. The market passed its immediate test. It absorbed a rate hike without collapsing. That is a significant signal. I still want to see confirmation.

Bitcoin needs to stabilise. The breadth of smaller coins needs to continue. The advance cannot rely on one group or a single economic event. The Privacy and AI Applications groups show leadership. That is encouraging. They remain relatively small parts of the overall capitalisation. For the advance to challenge US$2.73T, funds need to flow more broadly. I would like to see a weekly close above that pivot before turning more constructive.

I also watch the Ethereum Foundation AMA on September 16 for further sentiment cues. That event could provide insight into developer activity and network upgrades. It may not move prices on its own, but it adds to the narrative mosaic. The digital asset space is increasingly responsive to fundamental developments. That is a maturation story.

The worldwide economic backdrop remains the dominant driver. Cheaper oil and steady bond yields create a supportive climate for speculative assets. The central bank’s increase became a bullish catalyst because markets had already priced it in. The UK central bank’s decision on long-term government bonds added to the calm. Asian equities confirmed the trend. This is a coordinated advance. It is not a digital asset-specific event. That makes it more durable, but also more dependent on economic conditions remaining stable.

If oil continues to decline and yields stay contained, digital assets can test US$2.73T. If oil reverses or yields spike, the US$2.57T floor will come under pressure. The US$2.6T pivot is the line in the sand. Holding above it keeps the positive case alive. Breaking below it shifts the story back to choppy conditions.

In conclusion, the outlook is cautiously bullish momentum. Investors have digested the rate increase. Group rotation is strong. Chart marks are clear. The question now is whether Bitcoin can stabilise and the breadth of smaller coins can continue. Can investors capitalise on this economic clarity to challenge the US$2.73T resistance? I believe they can, but only if the speculative climate remains supportive. The next few sessions will tell us whether this upward move has true staying power or whether it fades into another range phase. I lean toward the former, but I remain watchful.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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Why did Bitcoin and Ethereum move in near-perfect lockstep after the Fed rate hike?

Why did Bitcoin and Ethereum move in near-perfect lockstep after the Fed rate hike?

Bitcoin rose 0.82 per cent in 24 hours to US$76,318.25. Ethereum gained 0.80 per cent to US$2,418.94. The total crypto market cap increased one per cent, and the broader crypto market rose 0.99 per cent. These numbers point to a single conclusion. A relief bounce tied to the Federal Reserve lifted the entire asset class.

No coin-specific catalyst appeared in the data. The primary force came from the central bank. Bitcoin slightly underperformed that broad rise even as it gained. Ethereum tracked its larger peer almost exactly. This synchronised move indicates that the market is currently driven by macro headlines rather than project-level news.

The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16 to a target range of 3.75 per cent to 4.00 per cent. Market participants had widely anticipated this unanimous decision. The confirmation removed near-term uncertainty. Risk assets responded with a modest rally. The two largest digital assets moved in lockstep with that broader tide.

Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold recently hit a multi-year high. That detail matters. It shows the leading cryptocurrency now trades more like a macro asset than a speculative tech bet. Ethereum remains highly sensitive to central bank cues and Bitcoin’s direction in the short term. The move has less to do with each network’s fundamentals and more with a market-wide sigh of relief.

This is a beta trade, not a fundamental repricing. A priced-in event often produces this kind of reaction. Traders sell the rumour and buy the fact. The fact here was a rate hike that no longer surprised anyone. The market had already absorbed the news before the Fed spoke, so the actual announcement simply cleared the air.

Supporting data in derivatives markets adds nuance. Bitcoin open interest fell 3.1 per cent. Liquidations dropped 65.79 per cent. That decline in forced selling suggests a calmer backdrop. Bitcoin dominance stayed elevated near 58.85 per cent. Capital has not rotated aggressively into riskier altcoins.

Instead, it remains defensive. Ethereum told a slightly different story. Average perpetual funding rates rose 40.74 per cent over 24 hours to +0.0053 per cent. Some derivatives traders leaned cautiously bullish. The absolute rate stayed far from extreme levels. Ethereum also benefited from its place in the Layer 1 narrative, which posted a 0.99 per cent sector gain.

Risk capital is rotating toward large-cap blockchain platforms, but it is doing so selectively. Bitcoin still leads. Ethereum follows. That relationship defines the current market structure. The lack of a leverage washout and the sustained dominance of the largest asset create a stable floor, but they also limit upside momentum. When capital stays defensive, rallies tend to be measured and shallow rather than explosive.

Institutional flows provide the most important test. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$450 million in outflows on September 15. That figure shows hesitation among institutional investors. A return to net inflows would confirm renewed demand. Until then, price stability rests more on reduced selling pressure than on a fresh wave of buying.

Ethereum faces a similar question. The daily ETF flow report will show whether spot Ethereum ETF flows turn positive in the next 24 to 48 hours. Positive flows would confirm a return of institutional interest. Sustained outflows could pressure the support zone. The bounce then looks technical rather than durable.

This flow data matters more than any single derivative metric because it reflects real capital allocation from large investors. Without that capital, the rally depends on short-term traders and macro sentiment. That foundation is thin and can crack quickly if the next data release or policy comment shifts the mood.

Technical levels define the near-term battlefield. Bitcoin trades just above the US$75,000 support level, which has held for weeks. If the largest asset holds above US$75,000, a retest of US$78,189 resistance becomes possible. A break below US$75,000 would shift focus to the next support near US$74,000.

Ethereum consolidates between support at US$2,350-US$2,400 and resistance at US$2,500-US$2,600. Its 4-hour RSI sits at 53.17, a neutral reading. A daily close above US$2,500 would signal a breakout attempt. A break below US$2,350 would risk a deeper correction toward US$2,200.

The market is in a wait-and-see mode. It balances relief from the Fed against lingering regulatory uncertainty from the failed CLARITY Act. That legislative setback removed a potential positive catalyst and left the market without a clear regulatory path forward. Without that path, institutional investors may continue to hesitate, and that hesitation shows up in ETF flows.

In my view, the synchronised price action tells a story of a market where macro forces set the tone but internal dynamism remains weak. The Fed-induced relief rally is welcome. It is also fragile. It is a pause, not a pivot.

The path forward depends on two developments. One is that ETF flows must reverse from negative to positive. That shift would provide fresh institutional demand. The other is that both assets need convincing technical breaks above resistance. Bitcoin must reclaim and hold above US$78,189. Ethereum must close above US$2,500. Without those confirmations, the crypto complex remains vulnerable to the next macro shock or regulatory headline.

The high correlation with gold and Bitcoin’s persistent dominance show that capital seeks the safest harbours within the asset class during uncertainty. Until capital rotates more clearly into Ethereum and beyond, the recovery remains a beta-chasing exercise rather than a genuine broad-based bull market.

The next 24 to 48 hours of ETF flow data will offer the primary real test of whether this relief rally has legs. I would watch the US$75,000 level for Bitcoin and the US$2,350 level for Ethereum as the lines that separate consolidation from correction. I would also watch funding rates for signs of overheating. A sharp reversal there could trigger a squeeze and undermine the calm that currently supports prices. For now, the market has bought itself time, but it has not earned a new trend.

 

Source:
 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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The Fed is the real crypto story, Bitcoin and Ethereum are just following

The Fed is the real crypto story, Bitcoin and Ethereum are just following

We have entered a cautious stretch. Bitcoin has slipped 0.72 per cent over the past 24 hours to US$76,697.14. Ethereum has fallen harder, down 1.95 per cent to US$2,474.93. This pullback reflects a broader market decline of 0.99 per cent. The dominant force behind this move is macro uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 16 interest rate decision.

Traders are pricing in a high probability of a rate hike. That expectation has triggered risk-off sentiment across financial markets. A cascade of leveraged long liquidations has added pressure. My own view is simple. This is not a crypto story right now. This is a Fed story.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading as risk assets. Their next major move will come from the central bank, not from their own networks or adoption trends. The market-wide nature of this decline matters. Bitcoin does not show a unique weakness. It follows the same liquidity and policy expectations that shape other risk assets. That is why I focus on the Fed rather than on crypto-specific headlines.

Bitcoin’s decline looks modest on its own. Its alignment with the broader market matters more. The total crypto market cap has fallen 0.99 per cent. Bitcoin’s 0.72 per cent drop closely mirrors that move. This correlation tells me Bitcoin is following market beta rather than reacting to a coin-specific catalyst. The derivatives data shows a sharp spike in liquidations, up 1,331.93 per cent in 24 hours. That number sounds dramatic. This is a symptom of the sell-off and a leverage flush, not the primary cause. Forced selling from over-leveraged longs can accelerate a decline. It does not create the original spark. The provided data did not show a clear secondary driver for Bitcoin. I found no specific news event, exploit, or technical failure that explains the move independently of the macro backdrop.

The near-term path for Bitcoin depends on one level. The US$76,000 support zone is critical. If Bitcoin holds above US$76,000, a rebound toward US$78,500 is possible. A break below that support would risk a drop to US$74,000. This makes the Fed’s decision and its commentary on September 16 the key watch point. The market is in a holding pattern. Bitcoin sits at the centre of that wait. There is no need to overinterpret the small percentage decline. The larger signal is that traders have reduced risk ahead of a major policy event. Liquidity expectations and rate projections now matter more than short-term chart patterns for the largest cryptocurrency.

Ethereum faces a more difficult setup. Its 1.95 per cent decline to US$2,474.93 means it has underperformed a slightly weaker Bitcoin. The primary driver is a technical rejection at the US$2,530 to US$2,550 resistance zone. That area has drawn attention from multiple analysts as a critical ceiling. Ethereum tested it and failed to break through. This rejection occurred alongside rising Treasury yields and tightening macro expectations for a Fed rate hike. Those forces dampen appetite for risk assets like crypto. The provided data showed no clear coin-specific catalyst.

The move aligns with broader macro-driven caution. In my view, Ethereum’s underperformance makes sense. It faced a technical barrier and macro headwinds at the same time. Ethereum’s failure at resistance carries more weight because it happened during a macro-sensitive window. Traders already faced rising Treasury yields. A high probability of a Fed rate hike made them less willing to chase a breakout. The rejection at US$2,530 to US$2,550 gave them a reason to sell.

Forced selling from derivative liquidations amplified Ethereum’s decline. Liquidations wiped out over US$8.9M in ETH positions recently. One post highlighted US$8.9M in ETH liquidations at the US$2,523 level. The majority came from longs. That kind of forced selling creates short-term downward pressure. It does not necessarily reflect a fundamental shift in sentiment. A flush of over-leveraged traders exacerbated the drop. This is a common feature in volatile markets. This as a leverage cleanout rather than a verdict on Ethereum’s long-term value. The technical rejection gave the initial push. The liquidation cascade turned that push into a faster slide.

The near-term outlook for Ethereum is neutral to bearish while it remains below US$2,550. If ETH holds above the US$2,450 support, it could regroup for another attempt at the US$2,550 resistance. A decisive break below US$2,450 would target the next significant support zone around US$2,350 to US$2,400. Short-term moving averages converge in that zone. The critical event remains the Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluding September 16.

Market-implied probability for a hike is high. That creates uncertainty. The Fed’s policy statement and any changes in rate projections will likely drive the next significant move across crypto markets. My bias here is cautious. Ethereum needs to defend US$2,450 through the Fed announcement. A hawkish surprise could trigger a deeper correction toward US$2,350. I would treat the US$2,450 support as the line that separates a pause from a deeper move. A hold there keeps the current range intact. A break there shifts the focus to US$2,350 to US$2,400.

My point of view on this entire setup is that the crypto market is trading on macro beta, not on its own fundamentals. Bitcoin’s slight dip is a function of macro-driven, market-wide risk aversion ahead of a key Fed meeting. A flush of leveraged long positions amplified that move. The move lacks a distinct, coin-specific catalyst.

Ethereum’s pullback combines a failed technical breakout with pre-Fed risk reduction. Derivative liquidations added fuel. I would watch Bitcoin at US$76,000 and Ethereum at US$2,450. Those levels define the near-term battle lines. If support holds, both assets can attempt rebounds. Bitcoin could target US$78,500. Ethereum could retest US$2,550. If support breaks, Bitcoin risks US$74,000. Ethereum risks US$2,350 to US$2,400.

The broader market outlook is neutral to cautious for Bitcoin and cautiously bearish for Ethereum. The Fed’s interest rate decision and forward guidance on September 16 will set the tone for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Until that event passes, I expect choppy, headline-driven price action. The modest Bitcoin decline does not alarm me on its own. The Ethereum underperformance deserves more attention because it combines technical rejection, macro pressure, and a leverage flush. Both assets are waiting on the same catalyst. That catalyst is the Fed. The market has already moved into a defensive stance. Now it waits to see whether the central bank confirms or challenges that caution.

 

Source:
 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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