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Gold hits US$5K and crypto bleeds: What comes next?

Gold hits US$5K and crypto bleeds: What comes next?

As global markets opened for trading on Monday, January 26, investors found themselves navigating a landscape shaped by escalating geopolitical friction, shifting monetary expectations, and a historic surge in gold prices that eclipsed the psychological US$5,000 per ounce threshold. The confluence of these forces has created a volatile yet revealing moment in financial history. This moment reflects not only immediate market reactions but also deeper structural anxieties about the stability of traditional financial systems, the role of safe-haven assets, and the fragile confidence underpinning both equities and digital assets.

Gold’s ascent to over US$5,000 an ounce marks more than just a new record. It signals a profound loss of faith in fiat stability and institutional safeguards. This rally did not emerge in isolation. It unfolded against a backdrop of weakening US dollar sentiment, driven by fears of Japanese intervention in currency markets and renewed speculation about potential US tariffs targeting Greenland. A move that, while seemingly niche, underscores the broader trend of economic nationalism and strategic resource competition. In such an environment, capital naturally seeks refuge.

Gold, with its millennia-long reputation as a store of value, becomes the default destination when trust in policy predictability erodes. The strength of gold-related equities in Hong Kong, which helped propel the Hang Seng Index to its fourth consecutive gain, further illustrates how this flight to safety is translating into real portfolio allocations across Asia.

Meanwhile, US stock futures pointed lower at the open, reflecting investor caution ahead of a critical earnings week. The tech sector, long the engine of market returns, now stands at a crossroads. Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple are all scheduled to report results, and their performance will likely dictate whether the Nasdaq can sustain its narrow 0.28 per cent gain from Friday, January 23, when it closed at 23,501.24. That modest advance stood in stark contrast to the broader market malaise. The S&P 500 barely held onto a 0.03 per cent rise to finish at 6,915.61, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 285.30 points, or 0.58 per cent, to 49,098.71, dragged down by a nearly 4 per cent drop in Goldman Sachs. These divergences suggest growing selectivity among investors, who are increasingly unwilling to reward broad market exposure without clear earnings justification, especially in a climate where macro risks loom large.

In Asia, policymakers are responding with strategic moves aimed at reinforcing regional financial autonomy. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s decision to double the size of its RMB Business Facility to RMB200 billion (US$28 billion) is a deliberate step toward deepening offshore renminbi liquidity and reducing reliance on the US dollar in trade and settlement. This aligns with China’s long-term goal of internationalising its currency, particularly as geopolitical tensions incentivise alternative financial architectures. Meanwhile, Singapore’s central bank is expected to hold its monetary policy steady, reflecting a more cautious stance in a region where inflation dynamics remain manageable but external shocks could quickly alter the calculus.

The cryptocurrency market, however, tells a different story, one of fragility and systemic vulnerability. Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market cap fell by 1.9 per cent, extending a seven-day decline of 6.94 per cent. Despite retaining a modest 0.63 per cent gain for the month, the recent slide reveals how quickly sentiment can turn when trust is breached.

Two major security incidents acted as catalysts. In South Korea, prosecutors confirmed a phishing attack led to staggering losses of seized Bitcoin, while in the US, 40 million dollars worth of crypto was stolen from government-controlled addresses. These were not random hacks. They targeted institutions entrusted with custody of digital assets, raising urgent questions about the adequacy of current safeguards. When even state-held crypto proves vulnerable, retail and institutional participants alike reassess their exposure.

This erosion of confidence triggered a cascade of forced selling. In just 24 hours, 145 million dollars in Bitcoin long positions were liquidated, a staggering 4,829 per cent increase from baseline levels, with longs accounting for 98 per cent of all liquidations. Simultaneously, open interest in Bitcoin derivatives rose by 14 per cent, indicating that traders had piled into leveraged bets just before the downturn. The result was a classic deleveraging spiral.

As prices dipped below key technical supports, margin calls triggered automated sell-offs, which pushed prices lower, triggering more liquidations. Funding rates have turned slightly negative at minus 0.001 per cent, suggesting that short-term sentiment has shifted bearish, though not yet into panic territory. Still, the speed and scale of the unwind reveal how thin the line remains between orderly correction and disorderly collapse in highly leveraged crypto markets.

From my view, these developments underscore a pivotal tension in today’s financial ecosystem. There is a growing divergence between traditional safe-haven behaviour and the still-unproven resilience of digital alternatives. Gold’s record high reflects centuries of accumulated trust, while crypto’s sharp pullback exposes its continued dependence on speculative leverage and institutional credibility, both of which remain works in progress. The thefts from government-held wallets are particularly damning because they strike at the very premise that regulated custody can mitigate risk. If even federal agencies cannot secure digital assets, what hope do exchanges or self-custody solutions offer to the average investor?

Moreover, the timing could not be more consequential. With the US Senate set to discuss a new crypto bill this week, regulators now face immense pressure to respond, not just with rhetoric, but with concrete frameworks that address custody standards, transparency, and systemic risk. A reactive crackdown could deepen the selloff, while a measured, innovation-friendly approach might restore some confidence. But given the current mood, shaped by both geopolitical uncertainty and market fragility, any misstep could accelerate capital flight from digital assets toward time-tested stores of value.

Today may be remembered not just for gold’s historic milestone, but as a stress test for the entire architecture of modern finance. Traditional markets are grappling with slowing momentum and earnings uncertainty. Asian economies are quietly building parallel financial rails. The crypto sector is confronting its Achilles’ heel, the gap between technological promise and operational reality. For investors, the path forward demands discernment. Blind faith in either legacy systems or decentralised ideals is no longer tenable. Instead, survival and profit will belong to those who can navigate this hybrid landscape with eyes wide open, recognising that true resilience lies not in ideology, but in adaptability.

 

Source: https://e27.co/gold-hits-us5k-and-crypto-bleeds-what-comes-next-20260126/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Nasdaq jumps 2.7 per cent on rate cut bets: What comes next for tech stocks and crypto

Nasdaq jumps 2.7 per cent on rate cut bets: What comes next for tech stocks and crypto

Global markets staged a modest but meaningful rebound this week, driven primarily by growing optimism that the US Federal Reserve may finally pivot toward interest rate cuts as early as its December meeting. Risk sentiment improved across asset classes, with equities leading the charge, especially in the technology sector, while bonds regained some lustre as yields declined. The US dollar held steady, gold remained flat, and crude oil prices edged higher amid evolving geopolitical narratives.

In parallel, the cryptocurrency market posted a 0.88 per cent gain over the past 24 hours, pulling back from a steep 3.81 per cent weekly loss. Though encouraging, this rebound remains tenuous, supported more by technical relief and macro speculation than by strong fundamental or institutional demand.

US equities surged on Monday, with the Nasdaq climbing 2.7 per cent, significantly outpacing the S&P 500’s 1.6 per cent gain and the Dow Jones’ modest 0.4 per cent rise. The performance underscores the tech-heavy market’s sensitivity to monetary policy expectations. The rally stems from signals that several Federal Reserve officials now lean dovish, raising the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December.

Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) explicitly reaffirmed this expectation, adding credibility to the narrative. For investors, the implication remains clear: maintain exposure to high-quality US equities while selectively rotating into non-US value and mid-cap stocks to capture alpha. This strategy acknowledges both the leadership of American tech and the potential for relative outperformance in undervalued international markets.

Bond markets reacted in lockstep with equity optimism. US Treasury yields slipped, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.035 percent and the 2-year yield at 3.503 percent. The widening spread between short- and long-dated yields suggests growing confidence in a soft landing scenario, where inflation eases without triggering recession.

For fixed income investors, this shift marks a critical inflection point. Bonds are regaining their role as a defensive asset class, and positioning ahead of the anticipated Fed easing cycle appears prudent. Accumulating high-quality sovereign and investment-grade corporate debt now could yield attractive real returns once policy rates begin their descent.

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar stabilised, holding its ground as global investors weighed divergent central bank trajectories. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen weakened further, sliding amid ongoing concerns about potential intervention by Japanese authorities if the USD/JPY pair approaches the psychologically critical 160 level.

Tokyo has already spent billions defending the yen this year, and market participants remain on high alert. This dynamic creates a unique risk-reward asymmetry in yen trades, where upside potential is capped by intervention fears, even as interest rate differentials continue to pressure the currency lower.

Commodity markets reflected a mix of geopolitical caution and macro caution. Brent crude ticked upward as traders assessed the implications of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, a development that could reduce risk premiums in an already well-supplied oil market.

Meanwhile, gold ended flat at US$2,135.90 per ounce, maintaining its role as a defensive hedge rather than a momentum-driven asset. Its price stability suggests that while investors are not rushing into safe havens, they are also not fully abandoning them. The metal’s resilience amid equity rallies signals persistent undercurrents of uncertainty, likely tied to lingering inflation concerns and geopolitical fragility.

In Asia, regional equities posted a partial recovery from last week’s selloff, though performance remained mixed. US futures pointed lower by Tuesday morning, hinting at potential profit-taking or renewed caution. In this environment, the recommended strategy focuses on technology exposure and dividend-paying equities, sectors that offer both growth potential and income stability in uncertain times.

The cryptocurrency market mirrored broader risk sentiment, rising 0.88 per cent in 24 hours after a sharp weekly decline. This move aligns closely with the Nasdaq-100, which crypto now correlates with at 0.91, a testament to its increasing integration into traditional risk frameworks. Three key factors drove this tentative rebound. First, the completion of SWIFT’s migration to the ISO 20022 messaging standard on November 22 reignited interest in blockchain-based payment networks that comply with this new global standard.

Ripple’s XRP surged 4.91 per cent over the week, and its spot trading volume jumped 68.87 per cent in 24 hours, reflecting renewed institutional curiosity. While real-world adoption remains gradual, the narrative around regulatory-grade interoperability offers a credible pathway for compliant digital assets to gain traction in cross-border finance.

Second, a short squeeze provided technical relief in crypto derivatives markets. Bitcoin’s funding rate plunged 192 per cent to negative 0.0024 per cent, indicating excessive bearish positioning. As the price dipped toward US$80,000, US$17.5 million in long positions were liquidated, often a sign of forced covering by shorts.

While this created a short-term bounce, the underlying market remains weak, as evidenced by Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) of just 25.1, deep in oversold territory but not yet signalling a confirmed reversal. For bulls, reclaiming the 200-day moving average near US$88,000 will be the critical technical hurdle to watch.

Third, macro speculation around Fed policy played a decisive role. Reports from the Wall Street Journal highlighted internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with some officials now openly supporting a December rate cut. This dovish tilt lifted all risk assets, including crypto. Notably, outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs slowed to US$1.2 billion for the week, down from US$1.94 billion the prior week, suggesting that institutional selling pressure may be easing, if only temporarily.

Despite these positive signals, the current rally remains fragile. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at just 15 out of 100, firmly in “Extreme Fear” territory, revealing deep scepticism among retail participants. Moreover, the US$1.2 billion in weekly ETF outflows confirms that institutional investors have not yet returned in force. Without renewed inflows or a clear catalyst, the market risks another leg lower, especially if upcoming economic data contradicts rate-cut hopes.

All eyes now turn to Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A hotter-than-expected print could swiftly dismantle the dovish narrative, reigniting volatility across equities, bonds, and crypto alike. Conversely, a benign reading would reinforce the case for December easing, potentially extending the current rebound.

To sum things up, the market’s recent gains stem from a confluence of technical oversold conditions, regulatory tailwinds from ISO 20022, and macro hopes centred on Fed policy. These drivers lack the depth and breadth needed for a sustained rally. Investors should view this bounce as an opportunity to reassess positioning rather than a definitive turn in trend. Whether Bitcoin can stabilise above US$87,000, or whether equities can maintain momentum without Fed confirmation, will determine whether optimism evolves into conviction or evaporates under the weight of reality.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/nasdaq-jumps-2-7-per-cent-on-rate-cut-bets-what-comes-next-for-tech-stocks-and-crypto-20251125/

 

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Powell’s pivot: How Jackson Hole reshaped markets and what comes nex

Powell’s pivot: How Jackson Hole reshaped markets and what comes nex

The financial landscape presents a compelling narrative of shifting tides and strategic recalibration as we navigate the final stretch of August. Recent developments emerging from Jackson Hole have fundamentally reshaped market expectations, creating a domino effect across asset classes that demands careful dissection.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s carefully calibrated remarks last Friday did far more than hint at potential policy shifts; they effectively slammed the door on prolonged restrictive monetary policy while opening a wide window for immediate easing.

This pivot represents a significant departure from the Fed’s previous stance and carries profound implications for investors globally. Market participants responded with characteristic speed, pushing major US indices to fresh record highs as the S&P 500 gained 1.52 per cent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq surged 1.88 per cent.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average joined this upward trajectory, climbing 1.89 per cent to touch uncharted territory, a development underscored by the US government’s strategic investment in a major semiconductor manufacturer, which provided additional tailwinds for industrial and technology sectors.

Inflation cools, optimism rises

This renewed optimism stems directly from Powell’s acknowledgement that inflation has sufficiently cooled to warrant policy adjustment. His speech deliberately avoided the cautious hedging that characterised previous communications, instead emphasising the Fed’s readiness to act decisively should inflation continue its descent toward the two per cent target.

The immediate market reaction proved remarkably consistent across fixed income and currency markets. Treasury yields tumbled across the curve with the benchmark 10-year note falling 7.4 basis points to 4.254 per cent, while the two-year note dropped 9.5 basis points to 3.696 per cent. This yield compression reflects investor conviction that the current restrictive policy stance is temporary.

Concurrently, the US Dollar Index retreated 0.92 per cent as capital flowed toward risk assets while gold prices rebounded one per cent on the dual catalysts of dollar weakness and heightened rate cut anticipation. These movements collectively signal a powerful shift in market psychology where the so-called Fed put, the implicit promise of central bank support during market stress, has been reactivated with unusual clarity.

Earnings season exposes a split reality

The earnings season provides a critical counterpoint to this macro optimism, revealing a more nuanced corporate reality beneath the surface. While the much-discussed Magnificent Seven technology giants delivered robust results exceeding lowered expectations, the broader market tells a different story. Analysis of S&P 500 earnings revisions shows a troubling pattern of downward adjustments for the remaining 493 companies.

This bifurcation creates a dangerous illusion where headline index performance masks underlying weakness in the economic mainstream. Investors now turn their attention to the final wave of quarterly reports from key technology players, including Nvidia, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, and Autodesk, alongside consumer stalwarts Lululemon and Dollar General.

These results will serve as crucial stress tests for both the technology sector’s growth trajectory and consumer resilience amid persistent inflationary pressures. The market eagerly awaits these reports not merely for individual company performance but for what they reveal about broader economic health and corporate pricing power.

Asia’s liquidity pressures and regional sentiment

Asian markets present their own complex dynamics, particularly Hong Kong’s interbank rate market, which has exhibited unusual volatility. The one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate Hibor has surged dramatically from 1.0 per cent on August 11 to 2.77 per cent as of August 22.

This sharp increase reflects significant tightening in short-term liquidity conditions, likely driven by seasonal funding demands and potential regulatory adjustments. Such movements warrant close monitoring as they can transmit stress through global financial channels.

Despite these regional headwinds, Asian equity markets opened higher during early trading sessions today, suggesting regional investors remain influenced by the broader risk-on sentiment emanating from Powell’s comments. Yet US equity index futures currently indicate a potential pullback at today’s open, introducing an element of caution that underscores the market’s fragile equilibrium.

Crypto’s reaction: from Bitcoin to Ethereum

The cryptocurrency sector experienced particularly dramatic fluctuations following Powell’s speech, creating a fascinating case study in market psychology and whale behaviour. Bitcoin initially surged above US$67 000 following the dovish Fed commentary as traders anticipated lower interest rates would boost risk asset valuations.

However, this rally proved short-lived with the digital asset subsequently declining approximately two per cent. Blockchain analytics firms identified significant movement by large holders shifting substantial Bitcoin positions into Ethereum, a trend that accelerated over the weekend.

Lookonchain data revealed one prominent wallet recently converted part of its 100,784 Bitcoin holdings to acquire 62,914 Ethereum tokens while simultaneously establishing a large derivatives position. This strategic rotation by major players suggests a fundamental reassessment of digital asset allocation priorities, where Ethereum increasingly appears as the preferred vehicle for institutional exposure to the crypto ecosystem.

Ethereum’s technical indicators present both opportunity and warning signs that demand careful interpretation. The cryptocurrency’s 30 day Market Value to Realised Value MVRV ratio has reached 15 per cent a threshold historically associated with profit taking and potential corrections.

Analytics firm Santiment explicitly warns that this constitutes a danger zone that could trigger selling pressure if Ethereum fails to break US$5,000 in the near term. Yet this short-term caution contrasts with the more favourable long-term MVRV ratio of 58.5 per cent, indicating substantial unrealised gains for patient holders.

Additional bullish signals include the declining supply of Ethereum held on exchanges, which suggests growing investor confidence and reduced immediate selling pressure. Combined with rising staking participation and expanding decentralised finance DeFi activity, these fundamentals position Ethereum as the structural cornerstone of the crypto economy rather than merely a speculative alternative.

Strategic imperatives for investors

For investors navigating this complex environment, several strategic imperatives emerge clearly.

First, the renewed viability of the Fed puts creates a tactical opportunity to accumulate quality assets during periods of volatility. Well-capitalised investors should view market pullbacks as entry points for fundamentally strong companies, particularly those demonstrating pricing power and resilient cash flows.

Second, the rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum observed among major holders warrants serious consideration as it reflects a maturation of institutional crypto strategies. Dollar cost averaging into Ethereum provides a prudent approach to managing volatility while maintaining exposure to the asset’s long-term potential.

Third, investors should actively hedge existing cryptocurrency positions using options or futures contracts to protect against potential corrections, especially given the current MVRV warning signals.

Fourth, attention must remain fixed on Ethereum’s technological roadmap, where continued protocol upgrades like further implementation of EIP 4844 will drive sustainable value creation beyond mere speculation.

The road ahead: Volatility and value

The coming weeks will test the durability of this optimistic market posture as investors confront key data points, including the August CPI inflation report, consumer sentiment figures, and potential developments on trade policy. Historical precedent suggests September often brings increased market volatility; the current environment differs significantly from past cycles due to the Fed’s explicit commitment to policy normalisation.

While technical indicators show investor positioning has become somewhat extended, introducing near-term correction risks, the fundamental backdrop of potential rate cuts, combined with resilient corporate earnings, supports continued market advancement. The critical distinction this time involves the quality of the underlying assets driving the market.

Unlike previous cycles, where broad-based speculation fuelled gains, the current environment rewards careful stock selection focused on companies with demonstrable earnings power and sustainable competitive advantages.

This nuanced market landscape demands intellectual rigour and disciplined analysis from investors. The days of indiscriminate buying are over, replaced by an era requiring a granular understanding of both macroeconomic currents and individual company fundamentals.

Powell’s Jackson Hole speech has reset market expectations in profound ways, creating both opportunity and risk that will define investment outcomes for the remainder of 2024. Investors who combine patience with strategic precision while avoiding emotional reactions to short-term volatility will best position themselves to navigate the complex months ahead.

The market’s message is unambiguous: lower rates are coming, but their arrival does not guarantee universal gains. Success will belong to those who recognise that the Fed’s policy shift merely creates favourable conditions; the real work of identifying enduring value remains squarely the investor’s responsibility.

As we move toward September’s pivotal Federal Reserve meeting, the financial world watches with bated breath, knowing that the decisions made in the coming weeks will reverberate through markets for years to come.

 

Source: https://e27.co/powells-pivot-how-jackson-hole-reshaped-markets-and-what-comes-next-20250825/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j