Tag Archives: crossroads

The Fed at the crossroads: Rate cuts, political pressure, and the fragile balance of global markets

The Fed at the crossroads: Rate cuts, political pressure, and the fragile balance of global markets

The global financial landscape is at a critical turning point, with central banks poised to adjust monetary policies amid evolving economic data and mounting political pressures. Markets are gearing up for the Federal Reserve’s expected 25-basis-point rate cut, a decision shaped not just by inflation trends but also by external influences, including from political figures such as Donald Trump. His newly confirmed economic adviser, Stephen Miran, now sits on the Federal Reserve Board, highlighting the growing friction between independent monetary policy and political agendas aimed at aligning interest rates with electoral or economic goals.

This Fed announcement does not happen in a vacuum. It comes against a backdrop of robust US retail sales in August, which rose 0.6 per cent month-over-month, well above the 0.2 per cent consensus estimate. This consumer strength led the Atlanta Fed to boost its Q3 GDPNow forecast to an annualized 3.4 per cent, underscoring the economy’s resilience even as easing measures loom.

The data’s implications cut both ways: strong spending hints that aggressive stimulus might not be necessary, yet cooling inflation, a softening labor market, and global demand challenges support a cautious rate reduction. The Fed faces a tightrope walk, where over-easing could reignite inflation or under-easing might choke off growth. Investors will parse every detail, from the dot plot projections to Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, for clues on future moves.

A dovish dot plot suggesting multiple cuts ahead could spark rallies in risk assets and weaken the dollar. A more guarded tone, however, might fuel short-term volatility and bolster the greenback. This anticipation already weighed on equities Tuesday, with the Dow Jones falling 0.27 per cent, the S&P 500 dipping 0.13 per cent, and the Nasdaq edging down 0.07 per cent.

Bond yields showed restraint, with the 10-year Treasury steady at 4.03 per cent and the two-year note slipping two basis points to 3.51 per cent. The US dollar index dropped 0.69 per cent to 96.63, signaling bets on looser policy, while gold, a classic safe haven amid uncertainty, rose 0.2 per cent to US$3,687.67 per ounce, buoyed by central bank buying and a softer dollar.

In commodities, Brent crude jumped 1.53 per cent to US$68.47 per barrel, driven by supply fears from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries. Though targeted, these incidents add volatility to energy markets already strained by Middle East tensions and OPEC+ output controls. Asian stocks rallied early ahead of the Fed but pulled back by Wednesday morning, reflecting regional caution. US equity futures, in contrast, pointed higher, betting on a market-friendly outcome.

Other central banks are moving in tandem, or not. The Bank of Canada is set to trim its rate by 25 basis points to 2.50 per cent, mirroring the Fed’s response to easing inflation and domestic slowdowns. Bank Indonesia, however, is likely to hold steady at 5.00 per cent, focusing on rupiah stability amid political unrest and outflows. This policy divergence underscores a fragmented global cycle: advanced economies lean toward easing, while emerging markets battle currency risks and imported inflation.

Shifting to digital assets, Bitcoin broke through US$117,000 after weeks of consolidation, propelled by a high-profile lobbying push in Washington, D.C. Crypto leaders such as Michael Saylor of Strategy Inc. and Fred Thiel of MARA Holdings met lawmakers to advance the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill, aiming to create a national Bitcoin stockpile similar to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

This reflects the industry’s push for mainstream integration. Yet the surge wasn’t without drama: over US$175 million in positions liquidated in 24 hours, with longs hit hardest at US$107 million. Bitcoin’s open interest climbed 2.54 per cent, signaling fresh speculation, while Ethereum’s fell 1.64 per cent, keeping it stuck between US$4,430 and US$4,530. XRP edged up 1.53 per cent above US$3, but subdued volumes hinted at tempered enthusiasm.

Crypto sentiment stays balanced, with the Fear & Greed Index in neutral territory, no wild swings of greed or fear. Still, fragility lurks: Binance traders are net bearish on Bitcoin, with over 52 per cent of positions short per the Long/Short ratio, bracing for a potential retreat. Amid this, BNB shone, rising to over $957 and nearing its 52-week high of $963. This strength ties to reports of Binance nearing a deal to lift its US Department of Justice compliance monitor, a regulatory win that could ease operations and draw more investment. A push past US$1,000 could spark broader altcoin momentum.

In my view, this blend of policy pivots, geopolitical tensions, and crypto advocacy brews a volatile but opportunistic mix. The Fed’s cut, though anticipated, matters most for its forward signals: a path of steady easing could fuel equities, gold, and risk assets by easing recession worries. A data-dependent stance, however, might come off as hawkish, prompting sell-offs and dollar gains.

Politics adds unpredictability. Miran’s board seat, courtesy of a president prone to Fed critiques, could test the institution’s independence. If he pushes for aggressive cuts timed to midterms, it risks undermining credibility and roiling bonds. In commodities, oil’s climb signals escalation risks from Ukraine-Russia clashes; more strikes could sustain price pressures, hindering global inflation fights. Gold’s steadiness affirms its hedge value, especially as emerging-market central banks stockpile it against dollar swings and sanctions.

Crypto’s rally, while buoyed by lobbying, faces hurdles: the Bitcoin reserve bill’s fate is uncertain amid skepticism, and liquidations highlight leverage’s dangers. A Fed letdown or regulatory snag could trigger cascading sell-offs. BNB’s rise shows how clarity boosts value. Shedding oversight could attract institutions and ignite altcoins, yet Ethereum’s rut reveals uneven benefits from macro shifts.

Ultimately, we are entering a phase of acute market sensitivity, where central bank moves, political maneuvers, supply shocks, and regulatory shifts collide. Success hinges on balancing growth, inflation, and stability in a polarized world. For savvy investors, the upside is real; for the unwary, the ride could be rough.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-fed-at-the-crossroads-rate-cuts-political-pressure-and-the-fragile-balance-of-global-markets-20250917/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The dovish inflection: Fed cuts, TikTok truce, and crypto crossroads set stage for market repricing

The dovish inflection: Fed cuts, TikTok truce, and crypto crossroads set stage for market repricing

The Federal Reserve’s meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday stands out as the centerpiece, with widespread expectations that the central bank will deliver its first rate cut of the year, potentially by 25 or even 50 basis points, to support economic growth amid lingering inflation concerns.

This move aligns with a broader global trend where policymakers grapple with balancing growth and price stability. The Bank of England wraps up its deliberations on Thursday, likely holding rates steady at 4.0 per cent while signaling future adjustments based on incoming data.

Over in Japan, the Bank of Japan continues its gradual normalisation path, and the Bank of Canada faces similar pressures to ease if economic indicators weaken further. These meetings dominate the calendar, and traders watch closely for any hints of coordinated action that could ripple through currency markets and equity valuations. This synchronised focus on monetary policy reflects a maturing global economy that prioritises data-driven decisions over knee-jerk reactions, which bodes well for sustained risk appetite in the coming months.

Amid this backdrop, a breakthrough in US-China relations added fuel to the positive sentiment. Negotiators from both sides hammered out a framework agreement to restructure TikTok’s ownership, transferring control to a US-dominated entity while addressing national security worries that have loomed over the app for years. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the deal during talks in Spain, noting that President Trump and President Xi Jinping plan to make a direct call on Friday to iron out the final details.

This development marks a significant step in thawing trade tensions, as it ties into larger discussions on tariffs, technology transfers, and supply chain resilience. China acknowledged a basic consensus on the ownership shift, which could prevent an outright ban on TikTok in the US and open doors for similar resolutions in other contentious areas like semiconductors and electric vehicles.

From where I sit, this agreement signals pragmatic leadership from both leaders, who recognise that escalating disputes hurt businesses on all sides. It could pave the way for broader trade pacts, boosting investor confidence and potentially lifting export-oriented sectors in both economies. The market’s initial reaction underscores this, with shares of tech firms tied to social media and advertising perking up on the news.

Wall Street captured this upbeat mood right from the opening bell on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.11 per cent, reflecting steady gains in blue-chip names like industrials and financials that stand to benefit from looser policy. The S&P 500 pushed higher by 0.47 percent.

In comparison, the Nasdaq Composite led the pack with a 0.94 percent advance, driven mainly by technology giants such as Apple and Nvidia, which continue to ride the wave of AI enthusiasm and anticipated lower borrowing costs. These record closes for the S&P and Nasdaq highlight the resilience of US equities, even as valuation concerns linger in some corners.

Tech stocks, in particular, thrived on the combination of the TikTok news, which alleviates regulatory overhangs, and the broader expectation of Fed easing that would reduce the cost of capital for growth-oriented companies. Investors rotated into these names, shrugging off minor profit-taking in overbought areas. I believe this performance sets a strong tone for the week, as any dovish tilt from the Fed could propel these indexes to new highs, though we must remain vigilant for any surprises in the dot plot or forward guidance that might temper the rally.

Fixed income markets told a complementary story, with US Treasury yields dipping slightly as participants bet on imminent rate relief. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield fell three basis points to settle at 4.03 per cent, while the two-year yield eased two basis points to 3.53 per cent, narrowing the yield curve inversion that has plagued markets for so long. This softening reflects bets that the Fed will act decisively to prevent a deeper slowdown, pulling longer-dated yields lower in anticipation of multiple cuts through year-end.

The curve’s steepening, with the 10-year minus two-year spread widening to 0.51 per cent, suggests growing comfort that recession risks are fading. These movements validate the market’s forward-looking nature, where bond traders often price in policy shifts before they occur, providing a buffer against volatility. Lower yields support equity valuations by making stocks more attractive relative to fixed income, and they ease mortgage rates, which could stimulate housing activity down the line. The US dollar followed suit, weakening against a basket of major currencies as the Dollar Index dropped 0.25 per cent to close at 97.30. This pullback stems from the softer yields and the prospect of a less hawkish Fed, which diminishes the greenback’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, gold seized the opportunity to shine, surging 1.1 per cent to reach US$3,680.80 per ounce, its strongest level in months. The metal benefits from the dollar’s retreat and the flight to quality ahead of policy uncertainty, with central banks worldwide adding to their reserves at a brisk pace. Brent crude oil also edged up 0.67 per cent to 67.44 dollars per barrel, as geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, raise supply disruption fears.

These commodity moves illustrate the interconnectedness of global risks, where energy security concerns amplify inflationary pressures that central banks must navigate. I see gold’s rally as particularly telling, not just a hedge against uncertainty but a bet on persistent loose policy that could erode fiat currencies over time.

Shifting to Asia, equities presented a mixed picture at the start of the week, building on Friday’s positive close but showing some divergence in early trading on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei index opened higher, supported by exporter gains from a weaker yen, while Australia’s ASX climbed on commodity strength. South Korea’s Kospi joined the uptrend, buoyed by semiconductor demand, though Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lagged slightly due to property sector woes.

Overall, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index hovered near record territory, reflecting spillover from Wall Street’s strength and optimism around global growth. US equity futures pointed to a mixed open stateside, with Dow contracts down marginally while Nasdaq futures held flat, suggesting traders await Fed cues before committing fully.

In my assessment, Asia’s resilience demonstrates its decoupling from pure US dependency, with domestic factors such as China’s stimulus hints playing a larger role. This regional buoyancy could be sustained if central bank outcomes align with expectations, fostering cross-border capital flows.

Turning to the cryptocurrency space, Next Technology Holding Inc., traded under the ticker NXTT, made headlines by filing a US$500 million shelf registration with the SEC to issue common stock over time. The company explicitly stated that a portion of the proceeds would fund Bitcoin acquisitions, aligning with a growing trend among public firms to diversify into digital assets as a treasury reserve. This move follows similar strategies by companies such as MicroStrategy, which have seen their stock prices correlate closely with Bitcoin’s performance. NXTT’s announcement sparked an immediate reaction, with shares dropping nearly three per cent in after-hours trading, likely due to dilution fears from the potential stock issuance. However, management emphasized that Bitcoin remains central to their long-term strategy, viewing it as a superior store of value amid inflationary environments. The filing allows for flexibility in one or more offerings, giving the board discretion over timing and allocation.

From my perspective, this step by NXTT underscores the mainstreaming of corporate crypto adoption, where firms leverage public markets to build substantial holdings. While short-term volatility is inevitable, such initiatives could drive Bitcoin’s price higher by increasing institutional demand, especially if regulatory clarity improves under the current administration.

Ethereum’s narrative offers a contrasting yet intriguing angle, trading around US$4,520 on Monday after a 2.01 per cent decline that underperformed the broader crypto market’s 0.96 percent drop. Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, argued in a recent note that digital asset treasuries focused on Ethereum hold the highest probability of long-term success compared to those piling into Bitcoin or Solana.

Kendrick points to Ethereum’s staking yields, which provide passive income streams that enhance sustainability for these corporate holders, unlike the more static holdings in Bitcoin. He warns of a potential shakeout among digital asset treasuries, where market capitalization compresses relative to net asset values, squeezing out weaker players. An mNAV above one indicates trading at a premium, signaling investor trust, but Ethereum’s ecosystem advantages, including layer-two scaling and DeFi dominance, position its treasuries for outperformance.

Kendrick maintains ambitious price targets, forecasting US$7,500 for Ethereum by year-end and US$25,000 by 2028, calling recent dips a prime entry point. I agree with this outlook, as Ethereum’s utility beyond mere speculation gives it an edge in a maturing crypto landscape, where yield generation becomes key for institutional viability.

Delving deeper into Ethereum’s challenges, the price breakdown below the US$4,500 support level triggered a cascade of stop-loss orders and invalidated the short-term bullish setup. The token slipped under the 100-hourly simple moving average and now tests the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$4,509.35. This technical fracture amplified selling pressure, with 24-hour trading volume spiking 41.34 per cent to US$39.26 dollars, confirming the bearish shift through heightened liquidity.

Algorithmic traders and leveraged positions exacerbated the move, leading to liquidations that fed the downward spiral. Looking ahead, a decisive close above US$4,509 might halt the bleeding and restore stability, but persistent failure could drag prices toward the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci level at US$4,255, opening the door to further downside. These patterns remind us that crypto markets remain prone to sharp reversals, driven by sentiment and technical triggers more than fundamentals in the near term. Ethereum’s robust mid-term prospects, anchored in network upgrades like Dencun and growing adoption in real-world assets, suggest this dip represents a temporary setback rather than a trend reversal.

Compounding the technical woes, Ethereum exchange-traded funds experienced significant outflows, with US$152.3 million pulled on August 1, marking the largest single-day exit in recent weeks according to SoSoValue data. BlackRock’s ETHA fund bore the brunt of these withdrawals, erasing some of the bullish momentum from July’s US$5.43 billion in net inflows.

This profit-taking by institutions highlights short-term caution, even as Ethereum boasts a 79 per cent gain over the past 90 days. Despite the outflows, ETF issuers collectively hold ETH6.3 million, valued at around US$26 billion, which speaks to underlying long-term conviction. Broader stablecoin supply hit all-time highs, indicating ample liquidity in the ecosystem. Still, it has not yet translated into aggressive Ethereum buying, possibly due to awaiting clearer regulatory signals or Fed outcomes. In my estimation, these ETF flows reveal the growing pains of crypto’s integration into traditional finance, where volatility tests investor resolve. However, the sheer scale of prior inflows demonstrates Ethereum’s appeal as a portfolio diversifier, and I expect renewed accumulation once macroeconomic headwinds ease.

Ethereum’s story intersects with larger themes in the digital asset world, where corporate treasuries, such as NXTT’s Bitcoin pivot and Standard Chartered’s Ethereum endorsement, highlight diverging strategies. Bitcoin remains the undisputed king for its simplicity and scarcity, but Ethereum’s yield-bearing features could attract more sophisticated players seeking returns beyond holding. The recent ETH price action and ETF dynamics underscore the need for patience amid bearish signals, yet the fundamentals point to resilience. Stablecoin liquidity at record levels signals latent capital ready to deploy, potentially fueling a rebound if technical supports hold. Geopolitical factors, such as the US-China deal, might indirectly benefit crypto by stabilising global trade and reducing uncertainty that drives safe-haven flows into assets like gold and Bitcoin.

In reflecting on this week’s developments, I see a market at an inflexion point, where central bank actions could unlock fresh upside across asset classes. The TikTok framework deal exemplifies how diplomacy can swiftly alter risk perceptions, much like how corporate crypto moves challenge traditional finance norms. While Ethereum faces near-term headwinds from technical breaks and outflows, its structural advantages position it for outsized gains in a rate-cutting environment favouring growth assets.

Overall, global sentiment leans positive, with equities, commodities, and cryptos aligned for potential advances if policymakers deliver as anticipated. Investors should focus on diversification, monitor yield curves and ETF flows, and trade headlines for cues. This convergence of events reminds us that markets thrive on clarity, and with major decisions imminent, the stage is set for a dynamic week ahead.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-dovish-inflection-fed-cuts-tiktok-truce-and-crypto-crossroads-set-stage-for-market-repricing-20250916/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The calm before the surge: Fed easing, crypto clarity, and markets at a crossroads

The calm before the surge: Fed easing, crypto clarity, and markets at a crossroads

The softer-than-expected Producer Price Index data for August, which showed a 0.1 per cent month-over-month decline, has fuelled expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting. July’s figures also underwent a downward revision, reinforcing the narrative of cooling inflation pressures that could ease the burden on consumers and businesses alike.

This development arrives at a pivotal moment, with core PPI rising 2.8 per cent year-over-year, below forecasts, suggesting that demand may soften further in the coming months. Traders now price in the rate cut with near certainty, viewing it as a supportive measure for economic growth without igniting undue inflationary risks.

This measured approach by the Fed strikes a balance, preventing overly aggressive easing that might destabilise the dollar while providing enough stimulus to sustain the ongoing recovery.

Legal twist in Fed leadership

Amid this backdrop, a notable legal twist has emerged in the Federal Reserve’s leadership dynamics. A US district court granted a temporary injunction blocking President Trump’s attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to remain in her position during ongoing legal proceedings. The ruling, issued by Judge Jia Cobb, underscores the protections embedded in the Federal Reserve Act, which permits removal of governors only for cause, though the term lacks a precise definition.

Cook, appointed during the prior administration, has advocated for policies emphasising economic equity and data-driven decisions, often clashing with the current White House’s preferences. The administration plans to appeal, but for now, this decision maintains continuity at the Fed, potentially averting disruptions ahead of key policy announcements.

From my perspective, such interventions highlight the importance of institutional independence, ensuring that monetary policy remains insulated from short-term political pressures, which ultimately benefits market stability.

Market reactions in equities and bonds

US equities reflected this buoyant sentiment, with major indices posting gains on September 10, 2025. The S&P 500 climbed 0.3 per cent to close at a record high of 6,512.61, driven by strength in the energy sector as oil prices rose. The Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.03 per cent, also hitting fresh peaks, as technology stocks were buoyed by anticipation of lower borrowing costs.

In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.5 per cent, weighed down by select under-performers in industrial and consumer goods. Energy stocks led the advance, capitalising on heightened geopolitical tensions that pushed crude prices higher. Bond markets echoed this positivity, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping 1.5 basis points to 3.544 per cent and the 10-year yield falling 4.3 basis points to 4.045 per cent following robust demand at a recent note auction.

These movements signal investor confidence in a soft landing scenario, where inflation tames without derailing growth. This is a healthy rotation, with bonds attracting inflows as equities consolidate gains, setting the stage for sustained upward momentum if the Fed delivers as expected.

Currency and commodity movements

Currency and commodity markets displayed mixed but generally stable behaviour.

The US Dollar Index ended flat at 97.78, hovering near recent lows as rate cut bets tempered its appeal. Gold consolidated around US$3,640 per ounce, maintaining its safe-haven allure amid global uncertainties, though it faced mild profit-taking after recent highs. Brent crude advanced 1.7 per cent, climbing toward US$67 per barrel, propelled by escalating tensions between Russia and Poland alongside persistent Middle East instability.

These dynamics underscore the interplay between geopolitics and energy supply, with potential disruptions keeping prices elevated. Asian equity indices showed varied performance in early trading on September 11, while US futures pointed to a higher open, suggesting the positive mood could spill over.

In my opinion, commodities like oil and gold serve as barometers for broader risk appetite, and their current trajectories align with a world navigating recovery amid lingering threats.

SEC’s pivot on crypto regulation

Shifting focus to the regulatory landscape, SEC Chair Paul S. Atkins delivered a pivotal address at the Inaugural OECD Roundtable on Global Financial Markets in Paris on September 10, 2025, marking a transformative moment for digital assets. Atkins boldly proclaimed that crypto’s time has come, critiquing past reliance on enforcement actions that he argued stifled US competitiveness and drove innovation abroad. He highlighted how entrepreneurs wasted resources on legal defences rather than business development, labelling that era as history.

Introducing Project Crypto, Atkins outlined a shift toward a structured regulatory framework, promising transparent and predictable rules to foster domestic growth. This initiative aligns with President Trump’s directive to position America as the global leader in cryptocurrency, drawing on the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets.

Key elements include modernising securities rules for blockchain, ensuring on-chain capital raising, and declaring that most crypto tokens do not qualify as securities. Atkins advocated for super-app platforms that integrate trading, lending, and staking under a single regulatory umbrella, with flexible custody options to empower users.

He praised Europe’s MiCA framework and called for international collaboration, emphasising the need for minimal intervention to protect investors while fostering competition. Reactions on social media platforms like X have been overwhelmingly positive, with users hailing it as a new dawn for the industry.

In my view, this pivot represents a long-overdue acknowledgment of crypto’s potential, rectifying years of adversarial oversight that hampered progress. By prioritising clarity over confrontation, the SEC could unlock trillions in economic value, attracting talent and capital back to US shores and solidifying the nation’s leadership in fintech.

Bitcoin’s technical and market outlook

This regulatory optimism has invigorated the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, which trades above US$114,000 as of September 11, 2025, reflecting a 2.5 per cent gain over the past 24 hours. Technical indicators bolster a bullish outlook, with Bitcoin reclaiming its 7-day simple moving average at US$111,475 and 30-day exponential moving average at US$112,609. The MACD histogram has turned positive at +466.15, signalling building momentum, while the RSI-14 sits at 54.32, indicating neutral territory without overbought risks.

Historic Bollinger Bands have tightened to extreme levels, often preceding significant volatility. A completed cup-and-handle pattern suggests upward breakout potential. A shakeout pattern analysis points to the next milestone around US$130,000, with weakening resistance levels paving the way.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs continues to rise, countering the classic bull cycle correction phase. Holding above the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$113,836 affirms bullish control, and a close over US$115,864 could propel prices toward the US$120,000 to US$124,457 resistance zone. However, trading volume, up only 19.88 per cent from the 24-hour average, warrants caution regarding the rally’s sustainability. Discussions on X echo this sentiment, with analysts predicting surges to US$300,000 based on these metrics.

Personally, I align with the user’s prediction of US$150,000 by year-end, viewing it as achievable given the confluence of regulatory tailwinds, technical setups, and macroeconomic easing. Yet, I temper enthusiasm with realism, noting that low volumes could invite pullbacks if external shocks arise.

Final thoughts

Looking ahead, the interplay between these elements paints a promising picture for global finance. The Fed’s impending rate cut, combined with the SEC’s pro-crypto stance, could catalyse a virtuous cycle of investment and innovation. Bitcoin’s trajectory, supported by robust fundamentals, positions it as a bellwether for digital assets, potentially drawing in more mainstream adoption.

Challenges remain, including geopolitical risks that buoy oil but unsettle equities, as well as the ongoing legal battles at institutions such as the Fed. Nevertheless, the current buoyancy in risk sentiment feels grounded in data rather than hype.

I believe this moment heralds a maturation phase for crypto, where regulation enhances rather than hinders progress. If Project Crypto delivers on its promises, the US could indeed become the epicentre of blockchain advancement, benefiting investors, entrepreneurs, and the economy at large. The path forward demands vigilance, but the foundations appear stronger than ever.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-calm-before-the-surge-fed-easing-crypto-clarity-and-markets-at-a-crossroads-20250911/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j