Tag Archives: crypto

Stocks hit records as crypto pulls back on macro and leverage fears

Stocks hit records as crypto pulls back on macro and leverage fears

New highs on January 12 and 13, 2026, were propelled by strong corporate earnings expectations and a wave of optimism ahead of key US inflation data. Beneath the surface of this bullish equity momentum lies a more cautious undercurrent in crypto markets, where macro uncertainty, regulatory delays, and speculative leverage have combined to trigger a short-term retreat.

US equities closed at record levels on Monday. The S&P 500 edged up 0.16 per cent to 6,977.27, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.17 per cent to 49,590.20, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.26 per cent to finish at 23,733.90.

These gains reflected investor confidence in resilient corporate fundamentals and hopes that December’s Consumer Price Index report, due Tuesday, January 13, would show cooling inflation, potentially clearing the path for future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Early Tuesday trading told a slightly different story, with Dow futures dipping as markets paused to reassess.

In Asia, the mood remained exuberant. Japan’s Nikkei 225 soared over 3 per cent to an all-time high of 53,540.6, driven by Wall Street’s rally and speculation surrounding domestic political developments. The broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index also reached a record high, underscoring the region’s alignment with global risk-on sentiment.

Meanwhile, commodities responded to rising geopolitical tensions. Gold advanced as a haven amid concerns about political pressure on the Federal Reserve’s independence. At the same time, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 0.4 per cent to US$59.75 a barrel, reflecting ongoing unease over potential US intervention in Venezuela.

Against this backdrop, the crypto market moved in the opposite direction, falling 1.24 per cent over the past 24 hours. This decline aligns with a broader weekly decline of 3.31 per cent, despite a modest 1.2 per cent gain over the month.

Three interrelated forces explain the pullback.

First, stronger-than-expected US economic data has dampened expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. That shift triggered US$454 million in net outflows from crypto investment products last week, with US-linked funds alone shedding US$569 million. The tight correlation between crypto and the Nasdaq 100, currently at +0.78, confirms that digital assets remain highly sensitive to macro liquidity signals.

Second, regulatory progress in Washington stalled. The Senate Agriculture Committee postponed its markup of a major crypto market structure bill to late January, citing the need for further bipartisan negotiations. While not a rejection of reform, the delay prolongs the fog of uncertainty that has long clouded institutional participation. Proposals under discussion, including potential bans on stablecoin yield mechanisms and unresolved governance questions, further complicate an already fragile policy landscape.

Third, excessive leverage amplified the downturn. Bitcoin liquidations spiked to US$50 million in 24 hours, a 73 per cent increase, while total crypto derivatives open interest climbed 18.3 per cent to US$716 billion. This combination suggests that speculative positioning had grown frothy, and even a modest price dip was enough to trigger cascading margin calls. Although funding rates remain slightly positive at +0.0028, signalling lingering bullish sentiment among perpetual traders, the surge in liquidations reveals how quickly sentiment can flip when macro conditions shift.

The current crypto correction should not be mistaken for a structural breakdown. Instead, it reflects the natural recalibration of a maturing asset class responding to real-world catalysts. Equities may celebrate anticipated soft landings and contained inflation, but crypto markets, still tethered to liquidity expectations and policy clarity, react more violently to ambiguity. The coming days will prove pivotal. The CPI release on January 13 could either validate hopes for a dovish pivot or reinforce a higher-for-longer rate narrative. Simultaneously, any movement on the Senate crypto bill would offer much-needed directional clarity.

For now, the divergence between traditional markets and digital assets highlights a critical truth. While both respond to macroeconomic forces, cryptocurrency remains more exposed to regulatory uncertainty and leverage-driven volatility. Investors should watch whether daily liquidations stabilise below US$40 million, a sign that speculative excess is being flushed out without triggering more profound distress. In the longer arc, such corrections are not setbacks but necessary adjustments in a market striving for institutional legitimacy.

 

Source: https://e27.co/stocks-hit-records-as-crypto-pulls-back-on-macro-and-leverage-fears-20260113/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Crypto rebounds as gold hits all-time high and oil surges on Iran tensions

Crypto rebounds as gold hits all-time high and oil surges on Iran tensions

Markets opened the week on a note of cautious optimism, even as US exchanges remained shuttered for a holiday on January 12, 2026. The momentum carried over from the previous Friday, when the S&P 500 notched a record close at 6,966.28, buoyed by unexpectedly strong US jobs data that tempered fears of imminent and aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. That resilience in equities spilt into Asian trading hours, where regional benchmarks were poised to gain, reflecting renewed investor confidence in macroeconomic stability.

Geopolitical fault lines began to crack open beneath this surface calm. Escalating protests in Iran injected fresh volatility into commodity markets. Brent crude edged toward US$64 a barrel as supply disruption fears mounted, while gold, long the ultimate refuge in times of uncertainty, soared past US$4,563.61 per ounce, setting a new all-time high. The move underscored how even modest shifts in global risk perception can rapidly redirect capital flows toward safe-haven assets, especially when compounded by expectations of future monetary easing from the Fed.

Currency markets mirrored this tension. The US dollar softened notably after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell disclosed that the central bank had received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department, a revelation that stirred unease about the Fed’s operational independence. Against this backdrop, the euro held steady near US$1.1635, while the Japanese yen slipped to its weakest level in a year, signalling divergent policy trajectories and shifting safe-haven dynamics.

Meanwhile, the crypto market staged a modest but meaningful rebound, climbing 1.16 per cent over the past 24 hours. This advance marked a reversal of a broader 30-day downtrend and aligned with a nascent 7-day uptick of 0.17 per cent. Three converging forces drove this recovery: institutional validation through real-world asset tokenisation, technical breakthroughs on leading Layer 1 blockchains, and speculative optimism about potential US tax reform.

Ethereum and Solana emerged as clear leaders in the Layer 1 resurgence. Ethereum’s price action placed short sellers at heightened risk, with over 11 per cent of positions vulnerable, while Solana exhibited healthy alignment across exponential moving averages, a classic signal of sustained momentum. Together, they lifted the entire Layer 1 sector by 1.22 per cent, generating US$44.75 billion in trading volume, a staggering 66.34 per cent above the broader market average. This rotation into established, high-conviction assets suggested that investors were not chasing speculative narratives but rather reallocating toward foundational protocols with proven network effects and liquidity depth. The critical levels to watch now are Ethereum’s US$3,200 support and Solana’s US$140 resistance. Both will serve as barometers of whether this rally has staying power.

Equally significant was the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation’s confirmation of progress in tokenising US Treasuries on the Canton Network. This development transcends mere technological experimentation. It represents a watershed moment in the integration of traditional finance with blockchain infrastructure. With US$300 billion in daily volume already flowing through Canton-based applications and the native token surging 13.27 per cent, the market interpreted this as a de-risking event. By anchoring sovereign-grade assets to a permissioned yet distributed ledger, institutions signal that blockchain is no longer a fringe experiment but a viable rails upgrade for core financial operations. Such validation compresses the perceived regulatory risk premium that has long shadowed crypto markets, potentially unlocking tranches of conservative capital that have been previously sidelined by compliance concerns.

Adding fuel to retail sentiment was unconfirmed but credible chatter from the White House about eliminating transaction-level taxes on cryptocurrency. Though legislative outcomes remain uncertain, the mere discussion shifted market psychology. The Fear & Greed Index climbed to 41, still in neutral territory but a marked improvement from last month’s reading of 29, which reflected deep-seated fear. If such reforms materialise, they could dramatically enhance crypto’s utility as a medium of exchange, moving it beyond speculation and into everyday economic activity.

Despite these tailwinds, participation remains restrained. Open interest across derivatives markets sits at US$600 billion, down 25 per cent from a month ago, indicating that traders are approaching this rally with discipline rather than exuberance. The absence of excessive leverage suggests that any pullback would likely be orderly rather than catastrophic.

In sum, the confluence of macro stability, geopolitical stress, institutional adoption, and regulatory hope has created a fragile but promising inflection point. The path forward hinges on two variables: whether Ethereum can defend its key support amid broader market volatility, and how quickly DTCC’s tokenisation initiative transitions from pilot to production. If both hold, this rebound may mark more than a technical bounce. It could signal the beginning of a new phase where crypto’s value proposition shifts from speculative yield to infrastructural utility.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-rebounds-as-gold-hits-all-time-high-and-oil-surges-on-iran-tensions-20260112/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Crypto’s ticking time bomb: 5 events that will decide the 2026 bull run

Crypto’s ticking time bomb: 5 events that will decide the 2026 bull run

Among the most consequential developments expected in the cryptocurrency landscape over the next two years, none carries more immediate weight than the January 15, 2026, decision by MSCI regarding the classification of Bitcoin treasury companies. This ruling sits at the intersection of traditional finance and digital asset adoption, and its repercussions could ripple through markets in ways that few other events can match.

The core issue hinges on whether firms like MicroStrategy, whose balance sheets now consist of more than 50 per cent Bitcoin, will be reclassified as investment funds rather than operating companies. If MSCI rules in the affirmative, index providers like the S&P 500 or MSCI World would be compelled to remove these firms from their benchmarks, triggering forced selling by passive investment vehicles that collectively manage trillions in assets.

The scale of potential outflows is staggering. Estimates suggest that MicroStrategy alone could face between US$2.8 billion and US$8.8 billion in passive fund redemptions, with the broader ecosystem of Bitcoin treasury firms facing total selling pressure of US$10 to US$15 billion over the following twelve months. This figure represents not just paper losses but real market impact, especially given that companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, Digital Asset Treasuries or DATs, already control approximately 6 per cent of Bitcoin’s finite supply.

A forced liquidation at this scale would not only depress Bitcoin’s price in the short term but could also interrupt what has become a self-reinforcing cycle of corporate accumulation. That cycle, which began in earnest with MicroStrategy’s 2020 pivot, has served as a powerful narrative driver for institutional acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate reserve asset. If broken, it may take years to rebuild the same level of credibility.

Just two days before the MSCI ruling, on January 13, 2026, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics will release the latest Consumer Price Index data. Though seemingly a routine macroeconomic release, the January CPI print arrives at a moment of heightened sensitivity. Markets currently assign a 24.4 per cent probability to a Federal Reserve rate cut in the same month, signalling deep uncertainty about the direction of monetary policy.

In a scenario where inflation comes in hotter than expected, the dollar would likely strengthen, risk assets would sell off, and crypto, still viewed by many portfolio managers as a speculative instrument, could face renewed pressure. However, something subtle but significant has shifted. Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with gold has recently turned negative, standing at minus 0.58. This decoupling suggests that traders no longer treat Bitcoin as a straightforward inflation hedge in the same mould as precious metals.

Instead, its price action may respond more acutely to liquidity conditions, risk sentiment, and structural adoption signals than to traditional macro indicators. That makes the CPI release a wildcard, potentially catalytic, but less deterministic than it might have been in prior cycles.

Looking further ahead, the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on June 17, 2026, introduces another layer of complexity. This will be the first FOMC decision under the leadership of a new chair, widely expected to be Kevin Hassett if Donald Trump returns to the White House. Hassett, an economist with a history of advocating for pro-growth fiscal and monetary policies, would likely accelerate the pace of rate cuts in a bid to stimulate the economy. Market participants already anticipate 125 basis points of easing by the end of 2026. Such a dovish pivot would almost certainly weaken the US dollar and encourage capital flows into risk assets, including crypto.

But there is a caveat. If inflation remains stubbornly high even as rates fall, the bond market could enter a bear steepening regime, where long-term yields rise faster than short-term rates, creating a volatile macro environment that might undermine crypto’s appeal despite looser monetary conditions. In other words, the mere act of cutting rates does not guarantee a bullish outcome for digital assets. The context in which those cuts occur matters just as much.

Meanwhile, a quieter but potentially transformative development looms on March 16, 2026, the effective launch date of Bitwise’s suite of altcoin ETFs. These funds, covering tokens like AAVE and UNI, represent the largest expansion of crypto ETF access beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum since the approval of Solana and XRP funds in 2025. Critically, these ETFs are structured to hold up to 60 per cent of their assets directly in the underlying tokens, offering genuine exposure rather than synthetic derivatives.

Given that Bitcoin and Ethereum currently dominate 70.8 per cent of the total crypto market capitalisation, the introduction of liquid, regulated vehicles for mid-tier assets could catalyse a long-overdue diversification of institutional portfolios. This matters not just for price discovery but for ecosystem health. Altcoins like AAVE and UNI power real-world financial infrastructure, decentralised lending and governance protocols, respectively, and sustained institutional interest could accelerate their integration into mainstream finance. The success or failure of these ETFs may therefore serve as a litmus test for whether the crypto market can mature beyond a two-asset oligopoly.

Finally, while most of the events listed unfold within the next 18 months, one long-term threat casts a shadow over the entire industry: the quantum computing risk, projected to materialise by March 8, 2028. The concern is not hypothetical. Analysts warn that once quantum processors achieve 1,673 logical qubits, a milestone that IBM and Google are racing toward, Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography could become vulnerable, particularly for addresses that have previously transacted and thus exposed their public keys. The immediate risk is limited to reused addresses, but the psychological impact could be profound.

Even the mere perception of insecurity might trigger fear-driven sell-offs or regulatory crackdowns. Fortunately, the crypto community is not standing idle. Projects like xx network are already building quantum-resistant blockchains, and the Bitcoin core developers have long discussed soft-fork upgrades to migrate to post-quantum signature schemes. Still, the clock is ticking, and the industry’s ability to execute a seamless transition will determine whether this threat remains theoretical or becomes a crisis.

Taken together, these five events sketch a timeline of both opportunity and peril. The MSCI ruling on January 15, 2026, stands out as the most immediate and market-moving catalyst, not because it reflects a fundamental flaw in Bitcoin’s value proposition, but because it exposes the fragility of its integration into traditional finance.

A negative decision could temporarily erase roughly US$12,000 from Bitcoin’s price, according to current market models, while a favourable outcome might reinvigorate the corporate treasury narrative that has sustained much of the past bull run. Beyond that, the interplay of macro policy, ETF innovation, and technological risk will shape crypto’s trajectory for years to come.

What distinguishes this cycle from previous ones is not just the scale of institutional involvement, but the depth of structural interdependencies between digital assets and the legacy financial system. As such, the next 24 months will not merely test price resilience. They will determine whether crypto can evolve from a speculative frontier into a durable component of global capital markets.

Source:

https://e27.co/cryptos-ticking-time-bomb-5-events-that-will-decide-the-2026-bull-run-20260105/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j