Tag Archives: crypto

Fed rate cut odds hit 85 per cent: Here’s how stocks, crypto, and gold are reacting

Fed rate cut odds hit 85 per cent: Here’s how stocks, crypto, and gold are reacting

Market movements have shaped a complex but increasingly hopeful outlook across both traditional and digital asset markets, primarily fuelled by evolving expectations about Federal Reserve policy. Central to this momentum is a mounting belief that interest rate cuts are on the horizon. Financial markets now place an 84.9 per cent likelihood on a 25 basis point reduction at the December FOMC meeting. This shift in sentiment has ignited a widespread rally, pushing equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies higher in a coordinated risk-on surge that underscores how tightly asset prices are now linked to macroeconomic signals.

The labour market data released on November 26 provided critical fuel for this optimism. Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 fell to 216,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April and coming in well below the median forecast of 226,000. This third consecutive weekly decline signals continued resilience in the employment sector, but in the current environment where inflation appears to be moderating and growth concerns linger, the market interpreted the report as dovish. This interpretation aligns with UOB’s ongoing forecast of a 25 bps cut in December, now seemingly corroborated by real-time market pricing.

Equity markets responded enthusiastically. On Wednesday, November 26, the S&P 500 rose 0.7 per cent, the Nasdaq gained 0.8 per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.7 per cent, with technology stocks leading the charge. The gains extended a four-day winning streak in a holiday-shortened week, underscoring investor confidence in a pivot toward looser monetary conditions.

Notably, the US market closed early in observance of Thanksgiving, leaving Asian markets to carry the momentum into the next trading session. This global transmission of sentiment was evident in South Korea’s KOSPI, which surged 2.67 per cent on November 26 to close at 3,960.87, its strongest single-day advance in weeks. Regional indices across Asia followed suit, reinforcing a strategic tilt toward non-US value and mid-cap equities as sources of alpha, particularly in technology and dividend-yielding sectors.

Fixed-income markets reflected a more cautious recalibration. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held steady at approximately 4.00 per cent, while the 2-year yield edged slightly higher to 3.47 per cent, resulting in a 10Y-2Y spread of about 53 basis points. This modest flattening suggests that while near-term rate expectations are shifting, longer-term inflation and growth concerns remain anchored. Nevertheless, the widening spread between equities and bonds is beginning to make fixed income more attractive, prompting institutional investors to accumulate high-quality bonds in anticipation of a Fed pivot gradually. The relative stability of the 10-year yield amid equity rallies suggests the bond market is not fully pricing in aggressive easing but remains open to modest cuts if inflation data cooperate.

Currency and commodity markets further validated the risk-on narrative. The US dollar weakened broadly, with Asian currencies like the Korean won and Singapore dollar strengthening as the expected narrowing of the Fed-Asia yield differential reduced the appeal of dollar-denominated assets. Brent crude oil edged higher to US$63.04 per barrel, supported by expectations that lower interest rates could stimulate global demand. Even more striking was gold’s ascent to US$4,163.51 per ounce, a 0.8 per cent increase that reaffirmed its role as a defensive hedge amid monetary uncertainty. Gold’s performance, up nearly 58 per cent year-to-date, reflects not just inflation hedging but also a broader loss of confidence in fiat monetary regimes, a theme that resonates deeply in the cryptocurrency space.

Speaking of crypto, the digital asset market rallied 2.5 per cent over the 24 hours ending November 27, reclaiming a market capitalisation near US$3.07 trillion, a key Fibonacci retracement level. This rebound emerged from a state of extreme fear, as measured by sentiment indicators, and closely tracked the Nasdaq’s gains, with a 24-hour correlation of plus 0.84. Three interlocking forces drove this recovery.

First, technical indicators signalled a classic oversold bounce. Bitcoin’s RSI-14 had dipped to 36.09, bordering on oversold territory, while the MACD histogram turned positive, reflecting a shift in momentum. This setup was amplified by a short squeeze; US$74 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, with 87 per cent attributed to short sellers. Such dynamics often accelerate upward price action as forced buying meets opportunistic dip-buying.

Second, Ethereum witnessed significant off-exchange accumulation. On-chain data from Santiment showed a 49 per cent weekly decline in ETH exchange reserves, equivalent to roughly US$4 billion in value. This movement suggests large holders, whales, and institutions are withdrawing supply from liquid markets, tightening available float, and reducing immediate sell pressure. The trend was reinforced by BlackRock’s ETH ETF, which recorded US$92.6 million in inflows on November 24, its first positive flow in two weeks. This institutional re-engagement, occurring just as ETH tests the 3,000-dollar resistance level, points to strategic positioning ahead of potential macro catalysts.

Third, macro tailwinds provided the overarching narrative. With an 85 per cent market-implied probability of a December rate cut, risk assets across the board benefited from renewed liquidity expectations. However, sustainability remains uncertain. Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple, a metric comparing daily miner revenue to its 365-day average, stands at 0.67, above historical bear market bottoms but not yet signalling undervaluation. This suggests that while the macro backdrop is supportive, crypto-specific fundamentals have not yet reached a point of compelling long-term value.

In conclusion, today’s rally is a fragile synthesis of technical relief, institutional accumulation, and macro optimism. The alignment between crypto and equities, particularly the Nasdaq, has turned digital assets into a high-beta proxy for Fed policy expectations. This very correlation exposes crypto to reversal if incoming data, such as the US PCE inflation report, contradicts rate-cut assumptions. Should the Fed deliver as expected, the stage may be set for a sustained recovery. But without improvements in on-chain fundamentals, network activity, user adoption, and real yield generation, the rally may prove ephemeral, a mere leveraged echo of traditional market sentiment rather than a foundation for a new paradigm.

 

Source: https://e27.co/fed-rate-cut-odds-hit-85-per-cent-heres-how-stocks-crypto-and-gold-are-reacting-20251127/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

December’s make-or-break moment for crypto’s liquidity crisis

December’s make-or-break moment for crypto’s liquidity crisis

Equities and fixed income have rallied on mounting confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut at its December FOMC meeting. This expectation is reinforced not only by softening consumption data and declining consumer confidence but also by the accelerating political momentum behind Kevin Hassett as the leading candidate to assume the Fed chairmanship. Markets interpret Hassett’s likely appointment as a signal of a more responsive, disinflation-conscious policy framework, thereby pricing in an earlier and potentially deeper easing cycle than previously anticipated.

This macro recalibration is evident across multiple asset classes. US Treasury yields have declined modestly yet meaningfully, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.004 per cent, reflecting a repricing of terminal rate expectations. Concurrently, the US dollar has weakened, providing tailwinds for Asian currencies, which have strengthened amid a narrowing interest rate differential between the US and regional central banks, stable onshore Chinese liquidity conditions, and reduced geopolitical friction following the Xi-Trump dialogue. Chinese equities, particularly in the technology and AI sectors, have rallied in response, indicating that risk capital is already rotating toward markets perceived to offer both valuation support and policy tailwinds.

Despite this broad-based improvement in traditional risk sentiment, digital asset markets remain entrenched in a state of acute pessimism. The CMC Fear and Greed Index stands at 15 out of 100, categorically Extreme Fear, unchanged over the past 24 hours and only marginally above its yearly nadir of 10 recorded on November 22. This persistent fear is notable not for its intensity alone but for its durability in the face of improving macro fundamentals elsewhere.

The total crypto market capitalisation of 3.03 trillion dollars remains below both its 7-day 2.97 trillion dollars and 30-day 3.34 trillion dollars simple moving averages, confirming a technically bearish posture. The 14-day Relative Strength Index has plunged to 27.4, the lowest level since April 2025, signalling exhaustion in the prevailing downtrend. Historical precedent suggests that such oversold conditions, particularly when coinciding with shifts in macro liquidity, often precede short-term mean-reversion rallies.

Complicating the interpretation of this dislocation is the anomalous behaviour in crypto derivatives markets. Over the past 24 hours, perpetual futures volume surged 25.5 per cent to 1.3 trillion dollars, while spot volume contracted by 14.1 per cent to 268 billion dollars. This divergence typically indicates heightened speculative activity absent genuine conviction in directional price movement.

Supporting this interpretation, open interest in perpetual contracts declined by 1.89 per cent to 785 billion dollars, and funding rates collapsed by over 5,000 per cent to a negligible 0.0013 per cent. These metrics collectively suggest that traders are engaging in low-leverage, short-duration positioning rather than establishing sustained long or short exposure. The derivatives market is active, but it is not committed.

The central constraint on crypto market performance remains liquidity. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows of 28 billion dollars this month, draining a critical source of structural demand precisely when macro liquidity conditions are most fragile. Until these flows stabilise or reverse, or until the Federal Reserve explicitly shifts to a more accommodative stance, crypto markets are likely to remain range-bound and sentiment-constrained.

The three trillion dollar market cap threshold has emerged as a key psychological and technical support level. A sustained breach below this mark could trigger algorithmic and leveraged liquidations, exacerbating downside pressure. A hold above this floor in conjunction with a dovish Fed decision could catalyse a significant liquidity-driven relief rally.

Kevin Hassett’s emergence as the presumptive next Fed Chair amplifies the probability of such an outcome. As Director of the National Economic Council since early 2025, Hassett has consistently advocated for a monetary policy that responds proactively to weakening demand indicators. His potential leadership signals a pivot toward a more traditional Taylor-rule-oriented framework, which would likely accelerate the pace of rate cuts in the event of further softening in labour or consumption data. For digital asset markets, which historically exhibit high beta to shifts in global liquidity conditions, this scenario represents a pivotal inflexion point.

In conclusion, the current market environment reflects a transitional regime characterised by divergent sentiment across asset classes. Traditional markets have already priced in near-term Fed easing, supported by both data and institutional expectations. Crypto markets, by contrast, remain mired in extreme fear despite being technically oversold and exhibiting heightened but uncommitted speculative activity. The critical variable bridging this gap is liquidity, which hinges on two near-term catalysts: the Fed’s December policy decision and the trajectory of Bitcoin ETF flows.

Should the Fed deliver a dovish pivot, particularly under Hassett’s anticipated stewardship, it would likely resolve the current sentiment dislocation and re-anchor crypto valuations to a more favourable macro liquidity regime. Until then, tactical positioning should emphasise monitoring these liquidity signals rather than assuming directional conviction.

 

Source: https://e27.co/decembers-make-or-break-moment-for-cryptos-liquidity-crisis-20251126/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Nasdaq jumps 2.7 per cent on rate cut bets: What comes next for tech stocks and crypto

Nasdaq jumps 2.7 per cent on rate cut bets: What comes next for tech stocks and crypto

Global markets staged a modest but meaningful rebound this week, driven primarily by growing optimism that the US Federal Reserve may finally pivot toward interest rate cuts as early as its December meeting. Risk sentiment improved across asset classes, with equities leading the charge, especially in the technology sector, while bonds regained some lustre as yields declined. The US dollar held steady, gold remained flat, and crude oil prices edged higher amid evolving geopolitical narratives.

In parallel, the cryptocurrency market posted a 0.88 per cent gain over the past 24 hours, pulling back from a steep 3.81 per cent weekly loss. Though encouraging, this rebound remains tenuous, supported more by technical relief and macro speculation than by strong fundamental or institutional demand.

US equities surged on Monday, with the Nasdaq climbing 2.7 per cent, significantly outpacing the S&P 500’s 1.6 per cent gain and the Dow Jones’ modest 0.4 per cent rise. The performance underscores the tech-heavy market’s sensitivity to monetary policy expectations. The rally stems from signals that several Federal Reserve officials now lean dovish, raising the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December.

Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) explicitly reaffirmed this expectation, adding credibility to the narrative. For investors, the implication remains clear: maintain exposure to high-quality US equities while selectively rotating into non-US value and mid-cap stocks to capture alpha. This strategy acknowledges both the leadership of American tech and the potential for relative outperformance in undervalued international markets.

Bond markets reacted in lockstep with equity optimism. US Treasury yields slipped, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.035 percent and the 2-year yield at 3.503 percent. The widening spread between short- and long-dated yields suggests growing confidence in a soft landing scenario, where inflation eases without triggering recession.

For fixed income investors, this shift marks a critical inflection point. Bonds are regaining their role as a defensive asset class, and positioning ahead of the anticipated Fed easing cycle appears prudent. Accumulating high-quality sovereign and investment-grade corporate debt now could yield attractive real returns once policy rates begin their descent.

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar stabilised, holding its ground as global investors weighed divergent central bank trajectories. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen weakened further, sliding amid ongoing concerns about potential intervention by Japanese authorities if the USD/JPY pair approaches the psychologically critical 160 level.

Tokyo has already spent billions defending the yen this year, and market participants remain on high alert. This dynamic creates a unique risk-reward asymmetry in yen trades, where upside potential is capped by intervention fears, even as interest rate differentials continue to pressure the currency lower.

Commodity markets reflected a mix of geopolitical caution and macro caution. Brent crude ticked upward as traders assessed the implications of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, a development that could reduce risk premiums in an already well-supplied oil market.

Meanwhile, gold ended flat at US$2,135.90 per ounce, maintaining its role as a defensive hedge rather than a momentum-driven asset. Its price stability suggests that while investors are not rushing into safe havens, they are also not fully abandoning them. The metal’s resilience amid equity rallies signals persistent undercurrents of uncertainty, likely tied to lingering inflation concerns and geopolitical fragility.

In Asia, regional equities posted a partial recovery from last week’s selloff, though performance remained mixed. US futures pointed lower by Tuesday morning, hinting at potential profit-taking or renewed caution. In this environment, the recommended strategy focuses on technology exposure and dividend-paying equities, sectors that offer both growth potential and income stability in uncertain times.

The cryptocurrency market mirrored broader risk sentiment, rising 0.88 per cent in 24 hours after a sharp weekly decline. This move aligns closely with the Nasdaq-100, which crypto now correlates with at 0.91, a testament to its increasing integration into traditional risk frameworks. Three key factors drove this tentative rebound. First, the completion of SWIFT’s migration to the ISO 20022 messaging standard on November 22 reignited interest in blockchain-based payment networks that comply with this new global standard.

Ripple’s XRP surged 4.91 per cent over the week, and its spot trading volume jumped 68.87 per cent in 24 hours, reflecting renewed institutional curiosity. While real-world adoption remains gradual, the narrative around regulatory-grade interoperability offers a credible pathway for compliant digital assets to gain traction in cross-border finance.

Second, a short squeeze provided technical relief in crypto derivatives markets. Bitcoin’s funding rate plunged 192 per cent to negative 0.0024 per cent, indicating excessive bearish positioning. As the price dipped toward US$80,000, US$17.5 million in long positions were liquidated, often a sign of forced covering by shorts.

While this created a short-term bounce, the underlying market remains weak, as evidenced by Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) of just 25.1, deep in oversold territory but not yet signalling a confirmed reversal. For bulls, reclaiming the 200-day moving average near US$88,000 will be the critical technical hurdle to watch.

Third, macro speculation around Fed policy played a decisive role. Reports from the Wall Street Journal highlighted internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with some officials now openly supporting a December rate cut. This dovish tilt lifted all risk assets, including crypto. Notably, outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs slowed to US$1.2 billion for the week, down from US$1.94 billion the prior week, suggesting that institutional selling pressure may be easing, if only temporarily.

Despite these positive signals, the current rally remains fragile. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at just 15 out of 100, firmly in “Extreme Fear” territory, revealing deep scepticism among retail participants. Moreover, the US$1.2 billion in weekly ETF outflows confirms that institutional investors have not yet returned in force. Without renewed inflows or a clear catalyst, the market risks another leg lower, especially if upcoming economic data contradicts rate-cut hopes.

All eyes now turn to Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A hotter-than-expected print could swiftly dismantle the dovish narrative, reigniting volatility across equities, bonds, and crypto alike. Conversely, a benign reading would reinforce the case for December easing, potentially extending the current rebound.

To sum things up, the market’s recent gains stem from a confluence of technical oversold conditions, regulatory tailwinds from ISO 20022, and macro hopes centred on Fed policy. These drivers lack the depth and breadth needed for a sustained rally. Investors should view this bounce as an opportunity to reassess positioning rather than a definitive turn in trend. Whether Bitcoin can stabilise above US$87,000, or whether equities can maintain momentum without Fed confirmation, will determine whether optimism evolves into conviction or evaporates under the weight of reality.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/nasdaq-jumps-2-7-per-cent-on-rate-cut-bets-what-comes-next-for-tech-stocks-and-crypto-20251125/

 

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j