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Why crypto can’t escape the Nasdaq and what it means for the next 30 days

Why crypto can’t escape the Nasdaq and what it means for the next 30 days
The current market environment presents a textbook case of how macroeconomic uncertainty, structural leverage, and sector-specific stress can converge into a self-reinforcing selloff across both traditional and digital asset markets. The recent 5.32 per cent drop in crypto prices over the past 24 hours is not an isolated event but rather the culmination of three interlocking dynamics: miner distress, derivatives deleveraging, and heightened correlation with equities, particularly the Nasdaq-100. Each of these forces feeds into the other, creating a feedback loop that amplifies volatility and accelerates liquidations.

Miner capitulation stands out as one of the most critical bearish catalysts in this cycle. Publicly traded mining firms like Canaan and Hut 8 have seen their equity valuations hammered, with Canaan plunging 14.6 per cent on November 4 to close at US$1.1280 per share. This sharp decline reflects investor anxiety over the sustainability of mining operations as Bitcoin’s price hovers dangerously close to breakeven production costs. Recent data indicates that average mining costs reached US$114,233 as of November 3, while Bitcoin traded below US$101,000 by November 5.

This negative margin environment leaves miners with few options other than selling accumulated Bitcoin reserves to cover electricity, maintenance, and debt obligations. Hut 8’s Q3 2025 earnings report, which showed US$83.5 million in revenue, a 91 per cent year-over-year increase, nonetheless revealed underlying fragility. Despite strong top-line growth driven by scaling operations, the company’s aggressive 1,530 MW expansion plan introduces significant execution and financing risk in a deteriorating price environment.

When miners sell into a falling market, they exacerbate downward momentum, especially when hashprice, the revenue per terahash per second, has already collapsed by 23 per cent since October. The critical technical level to watch remains US$103,000. A decisive break below this support could trigger a wave of forced sales from marginal operators, further depressing spot prices.

Simultaneously, the derivatives market has undergone a dramatic reset. Total open interest in crypto derivatives has contracted by 27.5 per cent month-over-month, falling to US$786 billion, a clear signal that leveraged participants are rapidly de-risking. On November 4 alone, US$851 million in long positions were liquidated, predominantly on perpetual futures contracts where average leverage ratios hover around 25x on major exchanges like Binance.

The shift to negative funding rates, currently at -0.003 per cent, confirms that the market structure has flipped from bullish speculation to defensive shorting or passive hedging. Historically, sustained negative funding often precedes short squeezes, but only after sentiment reaches extreme pessimism. The spot-to-perpetual volume ratio of 0.26 underscores that price discovery is now dominated by derivatives traders reacting to macro headlines rather than organic spot demand.

This dynamic makes the market hypersensitive to external shocks, such as shifts in US Treasury yields or Federal Reserve commentary. With the 10-year yield settling at 4.083 per cent and the 2-year at 3.572 per cent, the yield curve remains inverted, a classic recession warning that weighs heavily on risk assets.

Perhaps most concerning for proponents of crypto’s digital gold narrative is its persistent correlation with tech equities. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin exhibited a 0.86 correlation with the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ), directly contradicting earlier hopes of decoupling.

While some analysts had pointed to a temporary breakdown in correlation during October, the reversion to high co-movement in early November demonstrates that institutional investors still treat crypto as a high-beta tech proxy rather than an independent store of value. This linkage became evident as US equities tumbled, Nasdaq down two per cent, S&P 500 down 1.2 per cent, dragging crypto lower despite fundamentally different supply mechanics.

Meanwhile, traditional safe havens like gold rose 0.8 per cent, reinforcing the flight-to-quality behaviour that excludes volatile digital assets during risk-off episodes. The strength of the US Dollar Index, which climbed to 100.20 for a fifth consecutive day, further pressures dollar-denominated commodities, including Bitcoin, by increasing the relative cost for foreign buyers.

Taken together, these forces create a precarious equilibrium. Miner selling adds persistent spot supply pressure. Derivatives unwinding removes liquidity and amplifies moves through forced liquidations. And macro correlation ensures that any stumble in US equities instantly transmits to crypto markets. Within this turbulence lies a potential opportunity. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 20, Extreme Fear, the lowest reading since March 2025.

Historically, such extremes often coincide with local bottoms, as panic selling exhausts weak hands and creates conditions for a contrarian rebound. If Bitcoin holds above US$103,000, miners may stabilise their balance sheets, derivatives funding could normalise, and the narrative might shift from capitulation to accumulation. But if that support fails, the path of least resistance points lower, potentially toward the US$95,000 zone where mining economics become untenable for a broader swath of the network.

In either scenario, the market is undergoing a necessary cleansing, a washout that tests conviction and separates speculative froth from durable conviction. For now, all eyes remain on price action at the margin, where every candlestick carries the weight of macro fate and miner survival.

Source: https://e27.co/why-crypto-cant-escape-the-nasdaq-and-what-it-means-for-the-next-30-days-20251105/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Why crypto is crashing: DeFi hacks, Bitcoin cycle fears, and the Fed’s data blackout

Why crypto is crashing: DeFi hacks, Bitcoin cycle fears, and the Fed’s data blackout

The global macro environment has entered a delicate and highly sensitive phase, defined by the intersection of three structural forces: exuberance around artificial intelligence-driven corporate activity, pronounced ambiguity in monetary policy direction, and growing fragility within the digital asset ecosystem. Recent AI-related strategic partnerships and investments have temporarily buoyed risk appetite, particularly in select segments of the equity market. This rally rests on thin foundations.

Beneath the surface, investor confidence remains fragile, undermined by inconsistent messaging from Federal Reserve officials regarding the future path of interest rates. This uncertainty is further exacerbated by an ongoing US government shutdown, which has suspended the publication of key economic indicators, from inflation prints to labour market reports, that are essential for informed policy decisions and market pricing. In the absence of reliable data, market participants are forced to navigate by sentiment alone, heightening the risk of dislocations, exaggerated volatility, and asset mispricing across both traditional and digital financial markets.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hold its cash rate target steady at 3.6 per cent on November 4 aligns with broad market expectations and reflects a global central banking posture of cautious inertia. Without fresh data from the United States, the world’s largest economy, other central banks are reluctant to make bold moves.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields edged higher, with the two-year yield closing at 3.602 per cent and the 10-year at 4.107 per cent, both rising by 2.9 basis points. This subtle steepening of the yield curve suggests that traders are pricing in a slightly more hawkish near-term stance from the Fed, despite recent rhetoric hinting at potential cuts. The US Dollar Index mirrored this sentiment, climbing modestly to 99.88.

In commodities, gold retreated for a second consecutive day, settling near US$4,000 per ounce. This decline coincided with news that China would end its tax rebate program for certain retailers, a policy shift that could dampen consumer demand and, by extension, reduce safe-haven appetite for the yellow metal. Simultaneously, Brent crude oil held steady at US$64.89 per barrel, as traders digested OPEC+’s decision to pause its planned output increases in the first quarter of 2026. The group’s move reflects growing concern that global demand will soften in the coming months, potentially pushing the market into oversupply territory.

Against this macro backdrop, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp contraction, shedding 3.56 per cent in 24 hours to fall from US$3.55 trillion to US$3.42 trillion in total valuation. This decline extends a broader weekly slide of 7.7 per cent, with the Fear & Greed Index plunging to 27, a clear signal of prevailing pessimism. Three interlocking forces drove this selloff: a major DeFi exploit, mounting concerns about Bitcoin’s market cycle, and a renewed correlation with weakening tech equities.

The most immediate catalyst was the US$128 million exploit targeting Balancer V2 pools on November 3. The attack leveraged a flaw in vault access controls, draining assets across multiple chains including Ethereum and Arbitrum. Despite prior audits by reputable firms like OpenZeppelin and Trail of Bits, the protocol’s architecture proved vulnerable to a sophisticated cross-chain manipulation.

In response, Venus Protocol froze BAL collateral, underscoring the systemic risk that one protocol’s failure can pose to the broader DeFi ecosystem. This event shattered the illusion of self-regulation within DeFi, a narrative that had gained traction as the sector matured. With DeFi’s total value locked already down from US$157.5 billion to US$149.6 billion in the week leading up to the hack, institutional investors are likely to adopt a more cautious stance, delaying capital allocation until clearer security standards and regulatory guardrails emerge.

Compounding this technical vulnerability is a growing fear that Bitcoin’s current bull cycle may have already peaked. The asset briefly dipped to US$105,000 on November 4, a level that represents a 16 per cent drawdown from its all-time high. More critically, Bitcoin now trades below its 200-day simple moving average of US$109,882, a key technical threshold that often signals a shift in long-term momentum.

Analysts point to cyclical timing as further evidence of exhaustion: it has been 1,078 days since the November 2022 low, which corresponds to 101 per cent of the typical historical cycle length. With only 45 days remaining in the historical 518 to 580 day window for cycle peaks, the absence of a decisive breakout above US$113,000 suggests that buying pressure is waning. This view is reinforced by outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw assets under management drop by US$13.4 billion month-over-month to US$147.55 billion, indicating that even institutional demand is cooling.

Perhaps most concerning for crypto bulls is the reassertion of a strong correlation with the Nasdaq-100. Over the past 24 hours, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the QQQ ETF reached 0.73, as the tech-heavy index fell 0.8 per cent. This linkage demonstrates that, despite narratives about crypto’s independence, it remains tethered to the fortunes of growth-oriented equities.

While AI-driven deals lifted select stocks, such as Amazon, the broader market remains red, with over 300 S&P 500 constituents in negative territory. This narrow leadership is unsustainable and increases the risk of a broader tech selloff, which would inevitably drag crypto lower. Further eroding Bitcoin’s unique value proposition is its declining correlation with gold, which turned negative at -0.47 over the past 30 days, undermining its status as an inflation hedge.

In summary, the current market environment reflects a perfect storm of technical, cyclical, and systemic pressures. The Balancer exploit exposed foundational weaknesses in DeFi’s infrastructure, shaking investor confidence at a time when Bitcoin’s price action suggests the bull cycle may be running on fumes.

Meanwhile, the rekindled correlation with tech equities ties crypto’s fate to a sector that is itself vulnerable to shifting monetary policy and earnings disappointments. While the Bitcoin RSI has dipped to an oversold 22.63, suggesting a potential short-term bounce, any sustained recovery will require a credible catalyst, most likely a clear dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve.

Until then, traders should closely monitor Bitcoin’s US$105,000 support level and the QQQ’s 630 mark as critical barometers of market direction. In the absence of fresh economic data due to the government shutdown, these technical levels may be the only reliable guides through an increasingly foggy macro landscape.

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Is crypto entering a self-inflicted crisis? Inside the leverage and solvency spiral

Is crypto entering a self-inflicted crisis? Inside the leverage and solvency spiral

On the surface, US equities posted modest gains on Friday, buoyed by strong forward-looking statements from two major technology companies. The S&P 500 rose 0.3 per cent, the Nasdaq climbed 0.6 per cent, and the Dow Jones added 0.1 per cent. These moves occurred despite a broader backdrop of tightening financial conditions, as the US Federal Reserve signalled increasing reluctance to cut interest rates in the near term. This hesitation has kept risk sentiment muted across global markets, even as equity index futures point to further upside at the open this week.

Bond markets responded with a slight retreat in yields. The two-year Treasury yield fell by 3.5 basis points to 3.574 per cent, while the benchmark 10-year yield declined by 1.9 basis points to 4.077 per cent. Lower yields typically reflect expectations of slower growth or less aggressive monetary tightening, but in this case, the move appears more technical than fundamental, given the Fed’s recent tone.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index strengthened by 0.3 per cent to 99.80, its highest level since August, underscoring the greenback’s role as a safe haven amid uncertainty. In commodities, gold pulled back 0.5 per cent to US$4,003 per ounce, as investors took profits following a strong year-to-date rally. Brent crude oil edged up just 0.1 per cent to US$65.07 per barrel, though gains were pared after former President Donald Trump denied reports of an imminent military strike on Venezuela, removing a geopolitical premium from prices.

Asian equities initially mirrored Friday’s losses but rebounded in early Monday trading, suggesting some stabilisation. Attention now turns to a critical week ahead. More than 1,650 US firms, including 133 S&P 500 constituents, will report third-quarter earnings. These results will offer a crucial test of corporate resilience amid elevated rates and slowing global demand. Additionally, the Bank of England is set to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. According to Bloomberg surveys, the overwhelming consensus expects the BOE to hold rates steady in November, continuing its pause amid persistent but moderating inflation pressures in the UK.

Against this macro backdrop, the cryptocurrency market tells a markedly different story, one of retrenchment, risk aversion, and structural fragility. Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market cap declined by 2.06 per cent, extending a seven-day slide of 6.36 per cent. Market sentiment, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index, sits at 36, firmly in “Fear” territory. This anxiety stems not from macro drivers alone but from a confluence of three interrelated stress points: a sharp altcoin selloff, emerging exchange solvency concerns, and a technical breakdown in market structure.

The first and most visible pressure point is the collapse in altcoin performance. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index plummeted 10 per cent in 24 hours, falling to a reading of 26, the lowest level since April 2025. High-beta assets bore the brunt of the selling. BSquared Network dropped 10.7 per cent, SUI fell 4.8 per cent, and UXLINK suffered a catastrophic 74 per cent decline. This broad-based weakness reflects a pronounced flight to safety within crypto itself, with capital rotating aggressively into Bitcoin. Bitcoin dominance rose by 0.32 percentage points to 59.5 per cent, nearing the psychologically significant 60 per cent threshold. Historically, such dominance levels have coincided with prolonged altcoin underperformance, as risk capital retreats from speculative narratives.

This rotation follows a familiar pattern: the “sell-the-news” reaction after October’s brief surge in optimism around potential HBAR and SOL ETF approvals. That rally attracted leveraged long positions, which are now being unwound. Perpetual futures funding rates across major altcoins rose by 45 per cent in 24 hours, indicating that long-side leverage is being squeezed en masse. Should Bitcoin dominance breach 60 per cent, the outflow from altcoins could accelerate further, triggering additional liquidations in an already fragile ecosystem.

Compounding this dynamic is a renewed fear of centralised exchange risk, centred on MEXC. Users have reported approximately US$40 million in withdrawal freezes, sparking panic amid the platform’s offering of a 600 per cent annual percentage yield on USDT staking, a rate so anomalously high it defies sustainable yield generation in current market conditions. Such yields often signal hidden leverage, unsustainable tokenomics, or outright insolvency. In response, MEXC’s 24-hour trading volume collapsed by 23 per cent, as traders migrated to perceived safer venues like Binance and Coinbase. Stablecoin outflows from the exchange spiked by 37 per cent over the same period, a classic sign of depositor flight.

This episode evokes painful memories of the 2022 collapses of Celsius and BlockFi, where unsustainable yields preceded catastrophic failures. The psychological trauma from that era, what some traders now call “crypto PTSD,” is amplifying selling pressure beyond what fundamentals alone would justify. The fear is not just about MEXC’s solvency but about potential contagion. If a mid-tier exchange like MEXC faces liquidity constraints, could larger platforms with similar opaque practices be next? This question looms large as trust remains the scarcest commodity in crypto.

From a technical perspective, the market structure has also deteriorated. The total crypto market capitalisation has broken below its 30-day simple moving average of US$3.78 trillion, a key support level watched by algorithmic and institutional traders alike. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 42.75, below the neutral 50 mark but not yet in oversold territory, suggesting room for further downside. Compounding the bearish signal is a negative MACD divergence, where price makes lower lows while momentum indicators fail to confirm the move, often a precursor to accelerated selling.

Despite the price decline, open interest in derivatives rose by 4.6 per cent in 24 hours. This counterintuitive move indicates that algorithmic traders are actively shorting the breakdown, betting on continued weakness. Such behaviour can create a feedback loop: price drops trigger stop-losses, which fuel further declines, prompting more short entries. In this environment, even modest negative news can spark outsized moves.

The critical question now is whether Bitcoin can hold its US$109,000 support level. While the asset has shown relative resilience, its dominance rising as altcoins bleed, it remains tethered to broader liquidity conditions. A break below US$109,000 could signal a loss of confidence in the entire crypto ecosystem, potentially triggering a broader liquidity crunch. Unlike in 2022, when macro tightening was the primary driver of crypto’s collapse, today’s risks are more endogenous: leverage, exchange opacity, and speculative excess within the asset class itself.

The current selloff is not merely a reaction to Fed policy or dollar strength. It is a stress test of crypto’s internal architecture. The combination of altcoin deleveraging, exchange solvency fears, and technical breakdowns has created a perfect storm of bearish momentum. While traditional markets inch higher on tech strength and earnings hopes, crypto remains mired in a crisis of confidence. Traders must watch not only price levels but also on-chain flows, exchange reserves, and funding rates for signs of stabilisation or further unraveling. Until then, caution remains the only rational stance.

 

Source: https://e27.co/is-crypto-entering-a-self-inflicted-crisis-inside-the-leverage-and-solvency-spiral-20251103/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j