Tag Archives: crypto

Risk-off ripples: Trade fears, rate cuts, and a crypto sell-off collide

Risk-off ripples: Trade fears, rate cuts, and a crypto sell-off collide

A noticeable step back yesterday after President Donald Trump floated the idea of halting trade in cooking oil with China. This comment stirred up new uncertainties in the already fragile ties between the two economic giants, reminding everyone how quickly trade disputes can escalate and ripple through markets. Investors reacted by pulling back from riskier assets, seeking shelter in safer havens.

At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered some stability with his remarks. He noted that the economic picture looked much the same as it did during the September meeting, and he hinted strongly at another quarter-point cut in interest rates coming up later this month. These words from Powell helped temper some of the anxiety, as markets priced in the likelihood of easier monetary policy to support growth amid these tensions.

US stocks wrapped up Tuesday with mixed results, reflecting the push and pull between trade worries and Fed expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.44 per cent, showing resilience in some blue-chip names, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.16 per cent, and the Nasdaq dropped a steeper 0.76 per cent.

Tech-heavy indexes felt the brunt of the caution, as investors worried about how trade frictions might hit supply chains and corporate earnings. Bond markets told a similar story of caution. Treasury yields declined as people flocked to government debt for safety. The 10-year yield dropped three basis points to 4.02 per cent, and the two-year yield fell five basis points to 3.47 per cent. This movement underscores how quickly sentiment can shift toward defence when geopolitical headlines dominate.

The dollar weakened a bit in response, with the US Dollar Index down 0.22 per cent to 99.04. Gold, on the other hand, gained 0.4 per cent to reach 4126.47 dollars per ounce. This uptick in gold prices makes sense given the dual drivers of an anticipated Fed rate cut and the safe-haven appeal amid trade and geopolitical strains.

Oil markets faced their own pressures. Brent crude settled 1.47 per cent lower at 62.39 dollars per barrel, influenced by the International Energy Agency’s warning about a massive supply glut looming in 2026. That kind of forecast weighs heavily on energy prices, as it signals potential oversupply that could keep lids on any rebounds.

Asian stocks mostly ended lower on Tuesday, mirroring the global unease, but they perked up in early trading today. Optimism around the possible Fed rate cut boosted moods, leading to gains that suggest some recovery in sentiment. US equity futures pointed to a higher open stateside, which could carry over if the positive vibes hold. From my perspective, this back-and-forth highlights the market’s sensitivity to policy signals right now.

Trump’s offhand remark about the cooking oil trade might seem niche, but it taps into broader fears of escalating tariffs or restrictions that could disrupt global supply chains. Powell’s steady hand provides a counterbalance, and I see the Fed’s path as a stabilising force, potentially cushioning against worse outcomes if trade talks sour further. The mixed stock closes remind us that not all sectors benefit equally from lower rates, especially tech, which relies on smooth international flows.

Looking to the cryptocurrency space, the market endured a 1.66 per cent drop over the last 24 hours, building on a 7.57 per cent slide over the week. This downturn stems from a combination of regulatory pressures and a major scam revelation, which together amplified the risk-off mood. Technical signals indicate oversold territory, suggesting a potential bounce if sentiment shifts; however, caution remains the order of the day.

Regulatory developments hit hard, with US authorities charging Chen Zhi, the chairman of Cambodia’s Prince Holding Group, in connection with laundering 14 billion dollars through crypto scams, as reported by Nikkei Asia. At the same time, Japan outlined plans to prohibit insider trading in crypto by 2026, also per Nikkei Asia. These moves rattled investors, reinforcing the view that digital assets carry significant oversight risks. Institutions grew wary, and retail traders sold off, fearing broader crackdowns.

In my humble perspective, these regulatory steps mark a maturing phase for crypto, where governments aim to curb abuses that have plagued the sector. The 14 billion dollar scam case stands out as a stark example of how fraud can undermine trust, and Japan’s insider trading ban signals a push toward mainstream financial standards.

While this might sting in the short term, it could build longer-term credibility if implemented thoughtfully. Investors should monitor the evolving details of Japan’s legal changes and any potential spillover from the seizure in the scam probe. Such events often lead to temporary sell-offs but can pave the way for more robust frameworks that attract serious capital.

Derivatives markets showed clear signs of stress, adding to the bearish tone. Total open interest in derivatives decreased 1.73 per cent to 989.73 billion dollars, and average funding rates plummeted 36.3 per cent in just 24 hours. Perpetual contracts volume rose 1.69 per cent to 697.74 trillion dollars, indicating frantic trading amid the panic.

This unwind of leverage came after Bitcoin dipped briefly below 105 thousand dollars, sparking 19 billion dollars in liquidations earlier in the week. The spot-to-perpetual ratio of 0.21 underscores how speculation dominated, making the market vulnerable to sharp corrections.

I think this leverage purge reflects a healthy, if painful, reset. High funding rates often signal overextended positions, and their sharp drop shows traders rushing to exit as prices fall. The surge in perpetual volume points to knee-jerk reactions, where fear drives more activity rather than conviction.

In broader terms, this dynamic exposes crypto’s volatility, amplified by leveraged bets that can turn minor dips into cascades. From an optimistic angle, clearing out excess leverage might set the stage for more sustainable growth, reducing the risk of even larger blowups down the line.

Sentiment metrics captured the prevailing fear. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index slid to 37, squarely in fear territory, down from 42 the day before. This drop illustrates eroding confidence, as participants grapple with the regulatory and market pressures. Technically, the picture looked grim too.

The overall crypto market capitalisation stood at 3.84 trillion dollars, below the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of 3.98 trillion dollars. The seven-day Relative Strength Index hit 28.38, indicating extreme oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram at negative 33.12 billion confirmed ongoing bearish momentum. Bitcoin’s dominance climbed to 58.59 per cent, suggesting a shift toward it as a relatively safe haven within the crypto ecosystem.

From where I stand, these technical breakdowns reveal how algorithms and momentum traders can exacerbate declines. Crossing below key Fibonacci levels often triggers automated selling, and the low RSI screams oversold, which historically precedes rebounds in other markets. But in crypto, with its unique mix of retail enthusiasm and institutional hedging, the MACD’s bearish read might prolong the pain.

The rise in Bitcoin dominance tells me investors are hunkering down in the biggest name, viewing it as less risky than altcoins during turmoil. Overall, this setup feels like a capitulation phase, where fear dominates but could flip if positive catalysts emerge, like clearer Fed actions or easing trade tensions.

 

Source: https://e27.co/risk-off-ripples-trade-fears-rate-cuts-and-a-crypto-sell-off-collide-20251015/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Gold soars, crypto bleeds: The fragile balance of a world on the brink of trade war

Gold soars, crypto bleeds: The fragile balance of a world on the brink of trade war

At the heart of this financial storm lies former President Donald Trump’s announcement of a sweeping 100 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, set to take effect on November 1, 2025. This policy declaration, made via Truth Social, has sent shockwaves through equities, commodities, and digital asset markets alike, effectively dismantling the fragile optimism that had built up around potential US-China trade détente.

Far from being an isolated political gesture, this move has functioned as a macroeconomic detonator, exposing the deep interconnections between traditional finance and the crypto economy, and triggering the largest single-day liquidation event in cryptocurrency history.

Markets had initially responded with cautious optimism to signals that both Washington and Beijing remained open to dialogue. US equities posted strong gains on Monday, with the Nasdaq surging over two per cent as AI-related semiconductor deals buoyed tech sentiment.

Simultaneously, gold prices soared to unprecedented levels, reaching US$4,106 per ounce, a figure corroborated by multiple market data sources that place the price of gold on October 14, 2025, firmly in the US$4,145 to US$4,154 range. This record-breaking rally in the ultimate safe-haven asset was not a sign of confidence but a clear signal of deep-seated anxiety about the future.

Investors were hedging against a dual threat: the immediate risk of a new trade war and the longer-term expectation of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to counter the resulting economic slowdown. The rise in the US Dollar Index to 99.27 further underscores this flight to safety, even as Brent crude oil held steady at US$63.80 per barrel, supported by the faint hope that high-level talks between the two superpowers might yet avert disaster.

However, this fragile equilibrium was shattered by the full implications of Trump’s tariff plan. The proposed 100 per cent duty, targeting critical sectors like semiconductors and e-commerce, is not merely a trade policy but a declaration of economic warfare. The market’s reaction was instantaneous and brutal.

Asian equities, particularly Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, plunged as the region braced for the direct impact on its export-driven economies. This risk-off sentiment bled directly into the cryptocurrency market, which has, for all the talk of “digital gold” and macro decoupling, proven to be acutely sensitive to shifts in the S&P 500, with its 24-hour correlation spiking to +0.52. The narrative that crypto had evolved into a separate, uncorrelated asset class evaporated overnight, revealing it to be just another risk asset in a global liquidity crunch.

The actual carnage, however, unfolded in the opaque world of crypto derivatives. The market had been swimming in a sea of excess leverage, with open interest having ballooned by 91 per cent month-over-month to a staggering US$947 billion. This created a highly combustible environment where any sharp price move could trigger a cascade of forced selling.

Trump’s announcement provided the spark. In a matter of hours, over US$19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, marking the largest single-day wipeout since the market turmoil of March 2020. The data is unequivocal: 87 per cent of these liquidations were long positions, indicating a market that was overwhelmingly bullish and entirely unprepared for a sudden reversal.

This “leverage flushout” was not a natural market correction but a systemic purge, where the architecture of perpetual futures contracts and high-leverage trading turned a macro shock into a self-reinforcing spiral of selling. The pain was not distributed evenly; altcoins bore the brunt of the selloff, as evidenced by the ETH/BTC ratio collapsing to a three-year low of 0.22, signaling a flight to the relative safety of Bitcoin within the crypto ecosystem itself.

This event represents a profound reset in market sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index’s plunge from “Greed” at 62 to “Neutral” at 42 is a stark indicator of the psychological shift. Traders who had grown complacent in a low-volatility environment were abruptly reminded of the inherent risks of a highly leveraged, globally interconnected market. The negative funding rates in perpetual futures markets, which flipped to incentivise short sellers, further cemented the bearish momentum.

Yet, within this chaos, there are signs of potential stabilisation. The premium on Tether (USDT) above its US$1 peg, currently at US$1.005, suggests that a significant pool of sidelined cash is waiting on the sidelines, ready to re-enter the market once the dust settles. This “dry powder” could fuel a powerful relief rally should there be any sign of de-escalation from either Washington or Beijing.

In conclusion, the current market downturn is not a simple correction but the result of a perfect storm. A geopolitical shockwave from a proposed 100 per cent tariff has collided with a structurally over-leveraged crypto market, creating a feedback loop of forced liquidations and panic selling. While technical indicators like the RSI-7 at 33.6 suggest the market is oversold and primed for a bounce, any sustainable recovery hinges on external factors beyond the market’s control.

The path forward depends almost entirely on the next moves in the US-China standoff. Should China respond with its own aggressive measures, such as curbing exports of critical rare earth minerals, the risk-off environment could deepen and prolong the pain. Conversely, a diplomatic breakthrough or even a softening of rhetoric could trigger a powerful short-covering rally.

Let’s see.

 

Source: https://e27.co/gold-soars-crypto-bleeds-the-fragile-balance-of-a-world-on-the-brink-of-trade-war-20251014/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Memecoins, mayhem, and market recovery: Crypto’s wild ride after the trade war jolt

Memecoins, mayhem, and market recovery: Crypto’s wild ride after the trade war jolt

On Friday, October 10, 2025, global markets absorbed a seismic shock when former President Donald Trump, now back in office, announced a sweeping new trade measure: a 100 per cent tariff on all imports from China, set to take effect on November 1. This announcement instantly reignited fears of a full-blown trade war, not merely as a continuation of past tensions but as a dramatic escalation rooted in the strategic control of critical resources.

The move came in direct response to China’s recent export restrictions on rare earth elements, which constitute roughly 70 per cent of the global supply and are indispensable to modern high-tech manufacturing. The interplay between these two actions, China’s export controls and America’s retaliatory tariffs, has created a volatile feedback loop that threatens to destabilise global supply chains, inflate consumer prices, and inject deep uncertainty into financial markets already navigating a fragile post-pandemic recovery.

The immediate market reaction was swift and severe. US equities plunged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.90 per cent, the S&P 500 dropping 2.71 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq shedding 3.56 per cent. Investors fled to safety, pushing the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note down by nine basis points to 4.05 per cent and the two-year yield to 3.52 per cent. The US dollar weakened, sliding 0.6 per cent to 98.98 on the Dollar Index, while gold, a traditional haven in times of geopolitical stress, jumped 0.8 per cent to US$4,007.39 per ounce.

Even crude oil markets reflected the anxiety, with Brent futures tumbling 3.8 per cent to US$62.73 per barrel. Across the Pacific, Asian indices mirrored the downturn, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 1.8 per cent and Japan’s Nikkei off one per cent , the latter compounded by domestic political instability. Yet, by Monday’s pre-market session, US equity futures hinted at a rebound, suggesting that some investors viewed Friday’s selloff as an overreaction or a buying opportunity ahead of the critical November 1 deadline.

The industries most vulnerable to this trade standoff span both strategic and consumer sectors. In the United States, high-tech manufacturing stands at the epicenter. Rare earth elements are essential for producing permanent magnets used in electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, defense systems like precision-guided munitions, and semiconductor fabrication equipment. Without reliable access to these materials, American companies face production delays, cost inflation, and potential loss of competitive edge.

Beyond tech, the new tariffs directly impact steel, aluminum, copper, furniture, and household appliances, sectors already burdened by existing duties that average 40 per cent . The cumulative tariff burden, now potentially reaching 130 per cent , would drastically raise input costs for manufacturers and, inevitably, retail prices for consumers. European economies, though not directly targeted, remain exposed through their deep integration into global supply chains, particularly in automotive and electronics, where components often traverse multiple borders before final assembly.

China’s imposition of export controls on rare earths is not merely an economic manoeuvre but a calculated geopolitical lever. By restricting the flow of these critical minerals, Beijing asserts its dominance over a supply chain it has methodically consolidated over decades. While China frames these controls as necessary for national security and environmental protection, Washington interprets them as coercive economic statecraft.

The irony is palpable: the US, which has long criticised China’s trade practices, now responds with tariffs so steep they risk self-inflicted economic harm. Yet, the asymmetry in dependency is stark. The US and its allies rely heavily on Chinese rare earths, whereas China’s economy, while vast, may be less immediately dependent on access to specific American software or services. This imbalance suggests that Trump’s tariff threat, while aggressive, may ultimately serve as a bargaining tactic, a high-stakes gambit to force China back to the negotiating table before the scheduled high-level diplomatic talks on November 1.

Indeed, early signals indicate that de-escalation remains possible. Despite the fiery rhetoric, behind-the-scenes channels appear active, with reports suggesting the US has already signaled willingness to negotiate. This aligns with historical patterns where tariff threats function more as leverage than as irreversible policy. Markets, ever forward-looking, may be pricing in this possibility, which could explain the tentative recovery in futures trading.

For investors, the key is vigilance without panic. The S&P 500’s technical support levels at 6400 and 6150 will serve as critical markers of market sentiment in the coming weeks. Additionally, the flood of third-quarter earnings reports from 36 S&P 500 companies will offer real-time insights into how corporate America is navigating these headwinds. Comments from bellwether firms in tech, manufacturing, and retail will be scrutinised for mentions of supply chain disruptions, cost pressures, or shifting sourcing strategies.

Meanwhile, the crypto market experienced its own drama in the wake of the announcement. Bitcoin plunged 17 per cent in what traders dubbed Black Friday, triggering over US$19 billion in liquidations as leveraged positions collapsed under the weight of panic selling. However, within 24 hours, the market staged a 4.86 per cent recovery, driven by a confluence of factors. Institutional activity provided a floor: Grayscale’s filing for a Bittensor (TAO) Trust signalled growing interest in AI-integrated blockchain projects, propelling TAO up 35 per cent .

Simultaneously, retail speculation surged on BNB Chain, where memecoins like 4 and SKYAI skyrocketed on viral narratives and “endorsements” from figures like CZ. Daily decentralised exchange volumes on BNB Chain hit US$963 million, reflecting intense, if speculative, participation. Yet this rebound remains fragile. Negative funding rates on perpetual futures eased selling pressure temporarily, but Bitcoin still trades seven per cent below its 30-day moving average. The looming US$1.07 trillion options expiry this Friday adds another layer of potential volatility.

In sum, the events of October 10 represent more than a policy announcement. They mark a pivotal moment in the evolving economic cold war between the world’s two largest economies. The tariff threat and rare earth controls are not isolated incidents but symptoms of a deeper decoupling trend that spans technology, security, and industrial policy. While short-term market gyrations reflect fear and uncertainty, the longer-term implications hinge on whether this confrontation hardens into permanent fragmentation or yields to pragmatic negotiation.

Investors should brace for continued turbulence but avoid knee-jerk reactions. The next three weeks, leading up to November 1, will be decisive. Corporate earnings, central bank commentary, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech, and any diplomatic overtures will shape the narrative far more than Friday’s headlines. In such an environment, patience, diversification, and a keen eye on technical and fundamental indicators remain the best strategies.

 

Source: https://e27.co/memecoins-mayhem-and-market-recovery-cryptos-wild-ride-after-the-trade-war-jolt-20251013/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j