July 18th, 2025

Crypto’s turning point: Legislation, data, and Bitcoin’s bull run

Global risk sentiment has been anything but stable lately, rocked by speculation that President Trump might move to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This isn’t just political gossip. It’s a seismic event for markets. The Fed’s policies shape everything from interest rates to inflation expectations, and the mere hint of a leadership shakeup sends investors into a frenzy.

Are we facing a shift toward looser monetary policy, or could a new chair push for tighter controls? The uncertainty alone is enough to make markets jittery, and we’ve seen that play out in real time.

US equities, for instance, have been on a wild ride. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.3 per cent gain, the Dow Jones climbed 0.5 per cent, and the NASDAQ edged up 0.2 per cent, but these modest increases came after a day of whipsawing, sharp swings driven by conflicting headlines about Powell’s fate. It’s a classic case of markets trying to price in multiple scenarios at once, with no clear winner yet.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields are telling a different story. The two-year yield dropped 4.8 basis points to 3.892 per cent, and the 10-year yield fell 2.6 basis points to 4.455 per cent after hitting a monthly peak. Lower yields often signal a flight to safety, investors piling into bonds when stocks feel too risky. That dovetails with gold’s 0.7 per cent rise to US$3,347 per ounce, a move fueLled by those same flight-to-quality bids.

The US Dollar Index adds another layer to this narrative. It took a steep 0.9 per cent dive before clawing back most of its losses to close at 98.39, down just 0.2 per cent. That resilience suggests underlying confidence in the dollar, even amidst the chaos.

In contrast, Brent crude slipped 0.3 per cent to US$69 per barrel, weighed down by government data showing weaker demand and growing inventories. Energy prices often reflect global growth expectations, and this dip hints at nagging concerns about a slowdown.

Across the Pacific, Asia’s markets are a mixed bag. Chinese tech stocks rallied briefly on news of resumed chip shipments to China, a lifeline in the ongoing US-China tech tussle, but the momentum fizzled out. Asian equity indices opened unevenly, and US equity futures suggest Wall Street might start the day in the red. It’s a fragmented picture, with no single trend dominating.

Economic data: A glimmer of relief?

Amid this turbulence, the latest US Producer Price Index (PPI) data offers a sliver of good news. It came in softer than expected, signaling that manufacturers aren’t passing on the full brunt of US tariffs to consumers. This is significant. Tariffs, especially those tied to Trump-era policies, have been a wildcard, could they spark inflation by driving up costs?

The weak PPI suggests not, at least not yet. If inflationary pressures stay muted, the Fed might not feel compelled to hike rates aggressively, which is generally a boon for risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. It’s not a game-changer on its own, but it’s a counterweight to the political noise.

Elsewhere, Bank Indonesia’s decision to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent caught my eye. With a stable currency and lower inflation forecasts, they’re prioritising growth, a reminder that not every central bank is in tightening mode. This divergence in monetary policy could influence capital flows, potentially supporting riskier assets in emerging markets and, by extension, cryptocurrencies.

Crypto legislation: A turning point?

Now, let’s pivot to the cryptocurrency space, where something monumental is brewing. This week, the US House of Representatives is considering three bills that could redefine the role of digital assets in the financial world.

First, the GENIUS Act, already greenlit by the Senate, would bring stablecoin issuers under federal oversight, mandating strict reserve, audit, and registration rules. Stablecoins like Tether and USDC are the backbone of crypto trading, and this move could shore up their credibility, making them more palatable to traditional finance.

Second, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act aims to end the regulatory tug-of-war over whether cryptocurrencies are securities or commodities. By splitting oversight between the SEC and CFTC and setting clear guidelines for token issuers and trading platforms, it could resolve years of ambiguity. I’ve long argued that regulatory uncertainty has been a millstone around crypto’s neck; clarity here could unleash a wave of institutional money.

Finally, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act would bar the Fed from issuing a central bank digital currency. This is a win for crypto purists who view CBDCs as a threat to decentralised finance, although it also acknowledges privacy concerns that resonate beyond the crypto community. If these bills pass, we’re looking at a seismic shift; crypto could move from the fringes to the mainstream, with rules that legitimise it without stifling innovation.

Bitcoin’s technical strength

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is flexing its muscles. On the daily chart, it’s trading well above its key exponential moving averages: the 20-day at US$112,065, the 50-day at US$107,900, the 100-day at US$103,322, and the 200-day at US$96,920. That’s a textbook bullish setup. The recent breakout above the US$118,000–US$120,000 resistance zone, a level that had capped gains for weeks, is a big deal. Add in rising trading volume and a bullish MACD crossover, and the technicals are screaming upward momentum.

If Bitcoin holds above US$121,000, the next stop could be US$125,000. But markets aren’t one-way streets. If it stumbles, the 20-day EMA at US$112,065 provides immediate support, with stronger buying likely to occur near the 50-day EMA at US$107,900. This resilience is no fluke, it’s fueled by record-high institutional flows and ETF demand, a sign that big players are doubling down.

Mid-July 2025 prediction

So, where does Bitcoin land by mid-July 2025? I’m bullish, and here’s why. After hitting a new all-time high near US$122,000, the momentum feels sustainable. Institutional adoption is accelerating—look no further than Cantor Fitzgerald’s looming US$3.5 billion acquisition of 30,000 BTC, valued at US$117,321 each, through its SPAC vehicle.

This echoes MicroStrategy’s playbook of treating Bitcoin as a treasury asset, and it’s a powerful signal to other firms. With ETF demand soaring and the potential for regulatory clarity from those bills, I see Bitcoin climbing three per cent–five per cent from current levels, hitting US$125,000–US$128,000 by mid-to-late July.

That said, I’m not blind to risks. If the rally falters and Bitcoin dips below US$114,000, a pullback to US$110,000–US$112,000 could occur. That wouldn’t derail the trend; it’d be a healthy breather before the next push. As long as it stays above the 20-day EMA, the bias is up.

Zoom out, and the outlook gets even brighter. By Q4 2025, Bitcoin could reach US$130,000–US$150,000, propelled by institutional heavyweights, possible IMF endorsements, and macro tailwinds like a weaker dollar or persistent inflation fears. But that’s contingent on a stable global stage, no major wars, recessions, or black swan events. In a world this volatile, that’s a big “if.”

Stay sharp, things are about to get interesting.

Source: https://e27.co/cryptos-turning-point-legislation-data-and-bitcoins-bull-run-20250717/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

July 15th, 2025

Market dynamics: Equity gains, yield shifts, dollar strength, commodity dips, and crypto highs

The overriding theme in today’s markets is a subdued global risk sentiment, driven largely by President Trump’s aggressive tariff threats. He’s put the world on notice, warning of 100 per cent “secondary” tariffs on any country that continues to do business with Russia unless there’s a ceasefire in Ukraine within 50 days.

This bold move is a clear escalation in the US’s strategy to pressure Russia into de-escalating its ongoing conflict, but it’s also a high-stakes gamble that could backfire by targeting nations that trade with Russia, potentially including major players like China, India, or even some European countries.

Trump is risking a disruption of global supply chains and a wave of retaliatory measures. The European Union isn’t sitting idly by; it’s already gearing up to deepen ties with other affected nations, such as Canada and Japan, to forge a coordinated response. This could mean joint diplomatic efforts or even counter-tariffs, adding yet another layer of complexity to an already tense situation.

From my vantage point, this feels like a geopolitical chess game where every move could either stabilise or destabilise the global economy further. The 50-day deadline adds urgency, and I suspect markets will remain jittery as we approach that critical juncture.

Despite this uncertainty, US equities have managed a modest rebound, which tells me investors are trying to find a silver lining amid the storm clouds. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.1 per cent gain, the NASDAQ climbed 0.3 per cent, and the Dow Jones rose 0.2 per cent. These aren’t blockbuster numbers by any stretch, but they suggest a cautious optimism or perhaps a calculated bet that the tariff threats won’t fully materialise.

I think part of this resilience stems from faith in the Federal Reserve’s ability to navigate inflationary pressures or hope that diplomatic backchannels might soften the blow. However, the muted gains also hint at lingering unease. Investors are clearly hedging their bets, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see sharper swings in the coming weeks as more details emerge about the tariff plans and international reactions.

Switching gears to the bond markets, US treasuries took a hit, with yields ticking higher in a way that’s caught my attention. The 10-year yield rose 2.4 basis points to 4.433 per cent, while the two-year yield edged up 1.5 basis points to 3.900 per cent.

This uptick was partly influenced by a curve-steepening selloff in Japanese government bonds, which seems to have set a ripple effect across global sovereign debt markets. With no major US economic data releases to anchor sentiment, external factors like Japan’s bond dynamics are taking the lead.

A steepening yield curve typically signals expectations of stronger growth or rising inflation, but in this context, I see it more as a reflection of investor nerves about the tariff fallout. Higher yields could make borrowing more expensive and weigh on growth if the trend continues, something I’ll be watching closely as the situation unfolds.

Then there’s the US Dollar Index, which is on a tear with an eight-day winning streak—the longest since February, adding a 0.2 per cent gain to its run. At first glance, this strength makes perfect sense: the dollar often shines as a safe haven when geopolitical risks flare up, and Trump’s tariff saber-rattling fits that bill.

But I think there’s more to it. The US economy still looks relatively robust compared to its peers, and the prospect of higher interest rates here versus, say, Europe or Japan is keeping the greenback in demand.

From my perspective, this dollar rally could amplify the tariff impact by making US exports pricier and imports cheaper, potentially widening trade imbalances. It’s a double-edged sword that could either bolster US leverage or stoke further tensions with trading partners.

Commodities, meanwhile, are painting a mixed picture that’s worth digging into. Gold, the classic refuge in times of trouble, slipped 0.4 per cent to US$334 per ounce, which surprised me given the geopolitical backdrop. I suspect profit-taking is at play here, investors cashing in after a strong run rather than abandoning the safe-haven narrative altogether.

Brent crude, on the other hand, dropped 1.6 per cent to US$69 per barrel, and that feels more tied to fundamentals. If tariffs spark a trade war or slow global growth, demand for oil could soften, and that’s likely what’s spooking the energy markets.

I’d wager we’re also seeing some speculative unwinding after recent volatility. Both moves underscore how sensitive commodities are to shifts in risk sentiment, and I’ll be keeping an eye on whether these declines deepen or reverse as tariff news evolves.

All of this brings us to two pivotal events on the horizon: today’s US inflation data and the start of major bank earnings reports. The inflation numbers are the big ones, everyone’s eager to see if Trump’s tariff threats are already pushing up final goods prices. If we get a hot reading, say above the expected 2.6 per cent year-over-year for the Consumer Price Index, it could jolt the Fed into a more hawkish stance, maybe even accelerating rate hikes.

That’d be a game-changer for equities, bonds, and the dollar. On the flip side, a tame report might ease some nerves and buy time for diplomatic solutions. As for the bank earnings, from giants like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, I’ll be scouring their outlooks for clues about how they’re bracing for tariff risks or higher rates.

Any whiff of caution could drag sentiment lower, while upbeat forecasts might fuel a rally. My gut tells me these reports will be a mixed bag, reflecting the uncertainty we’re all grappling with.

Now, let’s talk about the wild card in this whole saga: cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin just smashed through US$120,000, peaking at US$122,404 with a 2.8 per cent daily gain and a 10 per cent surge over the past week. This rally, turbocharged since Trump’s election win, is riding a wave of excitement about new US legislation that could cement America’s status as the “crypto capital.”

Lawmakers in the Republican-led House are set to debate three bills this week: the Genius Act, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. These could streamline regulations, clarify stablecoin rules, and push digital assets deeper into mainstream finance. Ether hit US$3,081.94, its highest since February, and XRP jumped 2.7 per cent, lifting the crypto market’s total value to US$3.8 trillion, per CoinMarketCap data.

I see this as a fascinating counterpoint to the tariff gloom, a sign that some investors are betting big on a parallel financial system less tethered to traditional risks. If these bills pass, we could see crypto’s momentum accelerate, though I’m wary of a pullback if regulatory hopes fizzle.

My take on all this is that the tariff headlines are casting a long shadow, muting global risk appetite and forcing markets into a defensive crouch. There’s resilience too: US stocks are holding up, the dollar’s flexing its muscles, and crypto’s soaring on its own trajectory.

I think the next few weeks will be defining. If the tariff threats escalate into action and inflation spikes, we could see a sharper risk-off move, think falling equities, surging yields, and a choppier dollar. But if cooler heads prevail, or if the Fed signals steady support, markets might muddle through with minimal damage.

The crypto boom adds an intriguing twist; it’s almost like a barometer of faith in innovation amid chaos. For now, I’d advise investors to stay nimble, watch the data, and brace for volatility because in this environment, the only certainty is uncertainty itself.

Source: https://e27.co/market-dynamics-equity-gains-yield-shifts-dollar-strength-commodity-dips-and-crypto-highs-20250715/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

July 11th, 2025

Trump’s trade barriers and crypto bets: Rewriting the rules of global markets

I’ve been closely following the latest developments surrounding US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and cryptocurrency policies, especially as they unfold in 2025. The query at hand calls for a comprehensive analysis of how these policies are shaping global markets, and I’m eager to dive into the data, reflect on the implications, and offer my perspective.

With Trump’s recent announcement of heightened blanket tariffs and his administration’s surprising embrace of cryptocurrencies, the world is witnessing a fascinating interplay of protectionism and financial innovation.

Trump’s tariff escalation: A seismic shift in global trade

Let’s start with the tariffs, which have once again thrust trade tensions into the spotlight. On Thursday, in an interview with NBC News, President Trump revealed plans to ramp up blanket tariffs on most US trading partners from the current 10 per cent to a proposed 15 per cent or even 20 per cent. This escalation builds on an already aggressive trade stance, which saw the average applied US tariff rate climb to an estimated 27 per cent between January and April 2025, a level unseen in over a century.

But Trump didn’t stop there; he also singled out Canada, threatening a 35 per cent tariff on its imports starting in August, with a warning that retaliation would trigger even higher rates. This isn’t just rhetoric; it’s a calculated move to protect American industries and address trade imbalances, though the consequences are rippling far beyond US borders.

The immediate market reaction was telling. Global risk sentiment took a hit on Friday morning, with Asian equity indices trading flat and US equity futures signalling a lower open. This follows a volatile period earlier in the year when Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs,” dubbed “Liberation Day” on April 2, 2025, sent shockwaves through financial markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225, for instance, plummeted 7.8 per cent in a single day, and analysts now project a 0.8 per cent reduction in Japan’s GDP due to these measures.

Export-dependent economies like South Africa are scrambling to diversify their markets, while major trading partners, China, Canada, and the European Union, have retaliated with their own tariffs. China’s duties on US goods have soared to 125 per cent, and Canada has slapped a 25 per cent tariff on non-USMCA-compliant vehicles. This tit-for-tat escalation is fracturing global trade networks, and it’s hard not to see the parallels with the trade wars of Trump’s first term.

Economically, the tariffs are a double-edged sword. On the downside, they’ve driven up costs across the board. In the US, consumer prices rose by 2.4 per cent in 2025, with apparel prices surging 17.0 per cent and food costs increasing by 2.6 per cent. Businesses, caught in the crossfire, are passing these higher import costs onto consumers or absorbing them at the expense of profit margins.

Supply chains, already strained by years of disruption, are being forced to adapt yet again. Some companies are relocating production, others are seeking alternative suppliers, and many are simply scaling back.

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its 2025 global growth forecast, citing these tariffs as a key factor, and there’s a growing chorus warning of a potential recession. For the US itself, estimates suggest a long-term GDP hit of up to eight per cent, a steep price to pay for protectionism.

There’s an upside, or at least an intended one. Trump’s tariffs aim to shield domestic industries, particularly manufacturing, from foreign competition. By making imported goods more expensive, the policy could stimulate domestic production and job growth.

Steel and aluminum tariffs, now at 50 per cent, and a 25 per cent duty on imported cars are designed to breathe new life into American factories. Whether this will work in practice is debatable—supply chain complexities and higher costs could offset any gains but the intent is clear. I can’t help but wonder if this is a last stand against an unstoppable tide or a genuine pivot toward self-reliance.

The cryptocurrency boom: Trump’s unexpected ally

Now, let’s pivot to a very different story: Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrencies, which has sent shockwaves of another type through global markets. On Thursday, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of US$116,046.44, breaking its earlier record of US$113,734.64, and it’s up 24 per cent for the year. This rally isn’t just a fluke. It’s fuelled by a combination of institutional demand and a policy shift that’s caught many by surprise.

Back in March 2025, Trump signed an executive order establishing a strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies, a bold signal that the US government is no longer just tolerating digital assets but actively endorsing them. Add to that the appointment of crypto-friendly figures like SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins and White House AI czar David Sacks, and you’ve got a regulatory environment that’s rolling out the red carpet for blockchain innovation.

The drivers behind this surge are multifaceted. A weakening US dollar, with the Dollar Index hovering at 97.576, has investors seeking alternatives. Global liquidity is abundant, and institutional capital is pouring in, think hedge funds, pension funds, and even banks jumping on the crypto bandwagon.

Galaxy’s analysis of market dynamics since June 2025 points to geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty as catalysts, with Bitcoin emerging as a standout performer. When Trump’s tariff announcement briefly sent Bitcoin below US$76,000 amid a broader risk-off move, it quickly rebounded, underscoring its resilience. Binance CEO Richard Teng and VanEck’s Mathew Sigel are bullish, suggesting Bitcoin could become a reserve asset if the dollar’s dominance wanes further.

For global markets, this is a game-changer. Cryptocurrencies are no longer a fringe experiment. They’re increasingly seen as a hedge against traditional market risks. Gold, up 0.3 per cent to US$3,324.63 per ounce, is still a safe haven, but Bitcoin’s meteoric rise suggests it’s stealing some of that thunder.

The potential is enormous: greater adoption could drive financial inclusion, spur innovation, and even reshape cross-border trade. Imagine a world where businesses use crypto to bypass tariff-laden banking systems, cutting costs and speeding up transactions.

However, there are risks as well; volatility remains a hallmark of the market, and regulatory gaps leave room for fraud and manipulation. Plus, the energy demands of crypto mining are a growing environmental headache, something I’ve seen spark heated, albeit with less focus than it deserves.

The interplay: Tariffs meet crypto in a global tug-of-war

Here’s where it gets really interesting: how do tariffs and cryptocurrencies interact? At first glance, they seem like opposites—one rooted in old-school protectionism, the other a symbol of borderless innovation. But dig deeper, and there’s a fascinating dynamic at play. The economic uncertainty sparked by tariffs could be turbocharging crypto’s appeal.

When trade tensions flare and markets wobble, as seen in Friday’s retreat in global risk sentiment, investors often look for hedges. Bitcoin’s decentralised nature, unbound by any single economy, makes it an attractive refuge. I’ve seen this before, during the 2018-2019 US-China trade war, when Bitcoin surged as traditional assets faltered. In 2025, with tariffs hitting harder, that pattern could intensify.

Conversely, crypto might soften the tariffs’ blow. If businesses adopt blockchain for cross-border payments, they could sidestep some of the costs and delays tied to traditional finance. A US importer facing a 20 per cent tariff on goods might use crypto to settle with a supplier faster and cheaper, easing the sting.

But let’s not overstate this, crypto’s still young, and its scale is limited. Most trade still flows through banks, and regulatory hurdles loom large. Additionally, the tariffs could indirectly harm crypto; higher costs for imported mining equipment from China, for instance, might squeeze miners and developers.

If I had to bet, I’d say crypto’s rise will outlast the tariff storm, though not without a wild ride.

For now, buckle up!

Source: https://e27.co/trumps-trade-barriers-and-crypto-bets-rewriting-the-rules-of-global-markets-20250711/