April 24th, 2025

Market wrap: A relief rally amid easing tensions and crypto resilience

Global financial markets breathed a sigh of relief this week as President Donald Trump signalled a softer stance on two critical fronts: his relationship with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and trade negotiations with China. After weeks of heightened volatility driven by tariff threats and uncertainty over US monetary policy, Trump’s announcement that he has no plans to dismiss Powell and intends to approach trade talks with China amicably sparked a robust rally across equity markets.

The S&P 500 surged 1.7 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.1 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the charge with a 2.5 per cent gain. This relief rally extended to Asian equity indices, which continued their upward trajectory this morning after five consecutive days of gains. US equity futures also point to a higher open, suggesting that investor confidence is rebounding, at least for now. However, beneath the surface, mixed signals from US Treasuries, commodities, and economic data, alongside a resilient cryptocurrency market, paint a complex picture of global risk sentiment.

The US Dollar Index, a key barometer of the greenback’s strength, rose 0.9 per cent to close at 99.844, reflecting renewed confidence in US assets following Trump’s comments. The dollar’s gains were particularly notable against safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, as investors dialled back expectations of a full-blown trade war or a crisis in US monetary policy. Yet, the Treasury market told a more nuanced story.

The yield curve flattened sharply, with the two-year Treasury yield rising 7.4 basis points to 3.871 per cent while the 10-year yield dipped 2.0 basis points to 4.381 per cent. This divergence suggests that while short-term optimism drives demand for shorter-dated Treasuries, longer-term concerns about economic growth and inflation persist. The Treasury market’s mixed performance aligns with broader uncertainties about the Federal Reserve’s next steps, particularly after Powell’s cautious remarks in recent weeks about the economic fallout from tariffs.

Commodities, meanwhile, reflected a shift away from safe-haven assets. Brent crude oil fell 2.0 per cent to US$66 per barrel, pressured by reports that some OPEC+ members are pushing for an accelerated increase in output. This development and easing trade tensions have reduced fears of supply disruptions, weighing on oil prices. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, also tumbled 2.7 per cent as risk-on sentiment took hold.

The decline in gold prices underscores a broader unwinding of defensive positioning, as investors rotate back into equities and other growth-oriented assets. However, the commodity market’s reaction also highlights the fragility of this rally—any reversal in trade negotiations or unexpected geopolitical flare-ups could quickly reignite demand for safe havens.

In Asia, economic developments were relatively subdued but supportive of the broader risk-on mood. Bank Indonesia held its benchmark 7-day reverse repo rate at 5.75 per cent, with the Deposit Facility and Lending Facility unchanged at 5.00 per cent and 6.50 per cent, respectively. This decision reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy amid global uncertainties, particularly the US-China trade conflict. Meanwhile, US economic data releases had a muted impact on markets.

The Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly improved, signalling resilience in the industrial sector, but the Services PMI came in softer than expected, hinting at uneven economic momentum. However, March’s new home sales beat expectations, providing a bright spot for the housing market and reinforcing optimism about consumer demand. These mixed signals suggest that while the US economy remains on solid footing, it is not immune to the headwinds of global trade tensions and monetary policy uncertainty.

Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market has emerged as a standout performer, demonstrating remarkable resilience amid traditional market volatility. Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating above US$93,000, buoyed by significant institutional inflows into US spot ETFs and the launch of Twenty One Capital, a new Bitcoin Treasury company aiming to rival MicroStrategy.

Twenty One Capital debuted with an impressive 42,000 Bitcoin and plans to go public through a merger with Cantor Equity Partners, signalling growing corporate adoption of Bitcoin as a strategic asset. Recent data shows record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, underscoring a resurgence in institutional demand. Technical analysis points to a potential resistance level at US$96,100, with the psychologically significant US$100,000 milestone within reach if bullish momentum persists.

However, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has turned negative, indicating more substantial buying pressure on Binance than Coinbase. This divergence suggests that global retail and institutional investors may be driving Bitcoin’s price action differently across platforms, a dynamic worth monitoring as the cryptocurrency approaches key resistance levels.

Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is also showing signs of strength, with bulls targeting the US$2,000 level as resistance weakens. After weeks of consolidation and bearish sentiment, Ethereum’s price action is gaining momentum, supported by increased on-chain activity and renewed buying pressure.

According to IntoTheBlock, Ethereum faces modest resistance near US$1,860, a key zone that could be tested soon. The cryptocurrency’s ability to decouple from traditional financial markets, even as geopolitical tensions and the US-China trade conflict intensify, is particularly encouraging for investors.

This decoupling reflects growing confidence in Ethereum’s fundamentals, including its role as the backbone of decentralised finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Posts on X highlight surging on-chain activity, with projects like Lil Pudgys and Azuki driving network engagement, while institutional accumulation of ETH further bolsters its bullish outlook.

From my perspective, the current market rally is a welcome reprieve but should be approached with cautious optimism. Trump’s conciliatory tone on Powell and China is a positive development, but his track record of unpredictable policy shifts warrants skepticism. The relief rally in equities, while robust, may be short-lived if trade negotiations falter or if Powell’s cautious stance on rate cuts reignites fears of tighter monetary policy.

The Treasury market’s flattening yield curve is a red flag, signalling that investors are bracing for potential economic slowdowns despite short-term optimism. Commodities like oil and gold reflect this uncertainty, with their declines tied to easing tensions but vulnerable to reversal if geopolitical risks resurface.

The cryptocurrency market, however, offers a compelling counter-narrative. Bitcoin and Ethereum’s resilience amid traditional market volatility underscores their growing status as alternative assets. Institutional adoption, as evidenced by Twenty One Capital’s ambitious debut and record ETF inflows, is a game-changer for Bitcoin. Ethereum’s technical strength and on-chain activity further reinforce its potential for a trend reversal.

Yet, risks remain. Bitcoin’s negative Coinbase Premium Gap suggests uneven buying pressure, and Ethereum’s US$1,860 resistance level could pose a near-term challenge. Moreover, the broader market’s sensitivity to US-China trade developments and Fed policy means that cryptocurrencies, while decoupling to some extent, are not entirely immune to macro headwinds.

Looking ahead, investors should remain vigilant. The US economy is showing pockets of strength, as seen in manufacturing and housing data, but softer services PMI and global trade uncertainties could cap upside potential. Bank Indonesia’s steady rates reflect a broader trend of central banks adopting a wait-and-see approach, which may limit monetary stimulus in the near term.

For crypto investors, Bitcoin’s US$96,100 resistance and Ethereum’s US$1,860 sell wall are critical levels to watch. If global risk sentiment continues to improve, both assets could test higher targets, but any deterioration in trade talks or Fed hawkishness could trigger a pullback.

In conclusion, the market’s current trajectory is one of cautious optimism, driven by Trump’s softer rhetoric and supported by resilient US economic data and a buoyant crypto market. However, the interplay of Treasury yields, commodities, and geopolitical risks suggests that volatility is far from over.

“I see the cryptocurrency market’s strength as a beacon of innovation and diversification in an otherwise turbulent landscape. Investors would be wise to balance their enthusiasm with a clear-eyed assessment of the macro risks ahead, particularly as the US-China trade dynamic and Fed policy continue to shape global markets.” — Anndy Lian

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-a-relief-rally-amid-easing-tensions-and-crypto-resilience-20250424/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

April 21st, 2025

Here’s what happened in crypto today

Today in crypto, the Bitget crypto exchange rolled back accounts following “abnormal trading activity” in VOXEL-USDT perpetual futures contracts,” the Dogecoin community celebrates “Dogeday,” and CoinFund’s president takes aim at the latest crypto report from the Bank for International Settlements.

Bitget rolls back accounts after market irregularity in VOXEL-USDT perpetual futures contracts

Cryptocurrency exchange Bitget detected “abnormal trading activity” in VOXEL-USDT perpetual futures contracts between 8:00 to 8:30 UTC on April 20 and is rolling back accounts impacted by the trading irregularity during the next 24 hours.

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen told Cointelegraph that the issue was not platform-wide and involved funds traded between market participants and not the exchange itself. Chen added that all user funds are safe.

The exchange is also issuing a compensation plan for traders affected by the market irregularity. Chen told Cointelegraph:

“For any residual losses, Bitget is fully prepared to offer compensation. Our $300 million protection fund provides more than sufficient backing to support our users in such events, assuring that user assets remain secure.”

The incident is the latest in a string of market irregularities impacting cryptocurrency exchanges and causing losses to users, including the Hyperliquid-Jelly memecoin market exploit in March 2025.

Dogecoin holders celebrate “Dogeday” 4/20 as ETF decision draws near

Dogecoin holders worldwide celebrate “Dogeday” on April 20, as the memecoin’s community awaits upcoming deadlines for Dogecoin-related exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications.

Dogeday marks the unofficial holiday of the Dogecoin community. It gained traction in the memecoin community four years ago, in 2021, during International Weed Day on April 20.

Despite its reputation as a joke token, Dogecoin remains the eighth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, currently valued at $23.3 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Dogecoin’s tokenomics have often been criticized for issuing 14.4 million worth of new DOGE into circulation per day, giving it a daily inflation rate of over $2.16 million.

Dogecoin’s staying power “stems from a blend of community-driven enthusiasm, low entry barriers, and speculative appeal,” according to Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain expert.

“Crypto is not communism” — Exec slams BIS’ take on crypto

The Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) push to isolate crypto markets and its controversial recommendations on DeFi and stablecoins is “dangerous” for the entire financial system, warns the head of a blockchain investment firm.

“Many of their recommendations and conclusions — perhaps due to a mix of fear, arrogance, or ignorance — are completely uninformed and, frankly, dangerous,” CoinFund president Christopher Perkins said in an April 19 X post, referring to the BIS’ April 15 report titled “Cryptocurrencies and Decentralized Finance: Functions and Financial Stability Implications.”

“Crypto is not communism,” Perkins said, pushing back against the BIS’ call for a “containment” approach to isolate crypto from traditional finance and the broader economy.

“It’s the new internet that provides anyone with a connection access to financial services,” Perkins said. “You cannot control it anymore than you control the internet,” he added.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/what-happened-in-crypto-today

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

April 17th, 2025

Tariffs, tech crashes, crypto dips, and gold’s record run: Why markets are in chaos today

This week, the interplay of US-Japan trade talks, US-China tariff escalations, and new restrictions on chip exports has kept markets on edge. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s measured response to the turmoil has dashed hopes for immediate intervention, leaving investors to grapple with volatile asset prices and shifting risk sentiment.

The current market landscape is a complex tapestry of competing forces, from Bitcoin’s resilience to Ethereum’s technical signals, US equities’ performance, and gold’s safe-haven allure. Below, I offer my perspective on these developments, weaving together the broader macroeconomic context, asset-specific dynamics, and the implications for investors navigating this fraught environment.

The tentative global risk sentiment reflects the high stakes of ongoing tariff negotiations, particularly between the US and its major trading partners. The advancement of US-Japan trade talks, marked by President Trump’s optimistic claim of “big progress,” provided a modest lift to Japanese equities, with the Nikkei 225 gaining slightly. However, the yen weakened as investors priced in the likelihood of a deal that could avert higher US levies on Japanese goods, particularly in the auto sector. This development underscores Japan’s delicate balancing act: while a trade agreement could stabilise its export-driven economy, a stronger US dollar against the yen could pressure Japanese manufacturers’ competitiveness. The Bank of Japan, already grappling with a low-yield environment, may face further constraints if US tariffs dampen economic growth, as Governor Kazuo Ueda recently hinted.

For investors, the yen’s trajectory and Japan’s market performance hinge on the specifics of any deal—whether it prioritises market access or imposes new non-tariff barriers.

The US-China trade war, however, remains the epicentre of market anxiety. The White House’s confirmation of a staggering 245 per cent cumulative tariff rate on Chinese imports, following China’s retaliatory 125 per cent levies on US goods, signals a deepening economic standoff. This tit-for-tat escalation, coupled with new US restrictions on chip exports by Nvidia and AMD, has battered technology stocks and fueled fears of disrupted global supply chains. The chip export curbs, targeting Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 AI chips, are a strategic move to limit China’s access to advanced technology, but they come at a cost: Nvidia estimates a US$5.5 billion hit to its revenue, and its shares slumped nearly seven per cent.

The broader tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 3.1 per cent, contributing to the MSCI US index’s 2.2 per cent decline. These developments highlight the fragility of the tech sector, which has been a cornerstone of US market performance but is now vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

China’s response has been multifaceted, blending defiance with pragmatism. Beijing’s vow to “fight to the end” against US tariffs is tempered by signals of openness to negotiations, suggesting a desire to avoid a complete collapse of trade relations. However, China’s reported sale of confiscated cryptocurrency holdings, including Bitcoin, amid an economic slowdown, adds another layer of complexity.

This move, likely driven by the need to bolster fiscal reserves, has sparked speculation about its impact on crypto markets. Remarkably, Bitcoin has shown resilience, holding above US$84,000 despite the sales. This strength can be attributed to Bitcoin’s growing perception as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly as central banks and investors seek alternatives to traditional assets amid trade war volatility. Posts on X reflect this sentiment, with some users noting Bitcoin’s 64 per cent market dominance—a level not seen since early 2021—as evidence of its safe-haven appeal.

Ethereum, by contrast, has struggled, slipping below US$1,600 and entering a technically bearish phase. An analysis by CryptoQuant’s abramchart offers a nuanced perspective, suggesting that Ethereum’s current price near its realised price of US$1,585 could signal a deep-value accumulation zone. Historically, such levels have preceded major bull runs as long-term holders re-enter the market. However, technical indicators paint a mixed picture: Ethereum’s breach of its 20-day moving average and its position well below the 200-day average confirm a strong downtrend, while the relative strength index near 40 indicates weak momentum.

The compressed Bollinger Bands suggest a potential breakout, but the direction remains uncertain. For investors, Ethereum’s current dynamics present both opportunity and risk. While the realised price level hints at undervaluation, the broader market’s risk-off mood and trade war headwinds could delay a rebound.

The Federal Reserve’s role in this turbulent environment cannot be overstated. Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks this week, emphasising a wait-and-see approach to tariffs, have quashed expectations of a “Fed put”—a swift policy response to stabilise markets. Powell’s caution is rooted in the dual risks of higher inflation and slower growth, which tariffs are “highly likely” to exacerbate. His acknowledgement that the Fed faces a “highly uncertain outlook” underscores the central bank’s dilemma: cutting rates could fuel inflation while holding or raising rates risks stifling growth and employment. The Fed’s benchmark rate, currently between 4.25 per cent and 4.5 per cent, reflects this holding pattern, with traders still betting on cuts by June despite Powell’s reticence. The Fed’s data-dependent stance, coupled with solid economic indicators like March’s 228,000 job additions, suggests that any policy shift will hinge on clearer evidence of tariff-related economic fallout.

Fixed-income markets have also felt the strain, with US Treasury yields edging lower as investors reassess growth prospects. The 10-year yield fell 5.6 basis points to 4.28 per cent, and the two-year yield dropped 7.5 basis points to 3.77 per cent, reflecting concerns about a potential recession. The US dollar index’s 0.8 per cent decline, reaching its lowest level since April 2022, signals waning confidence in US assets as investors pivot to safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Gold, meanwhile, has surged 3.5 per cent to a record US$3,339 per ounce, with ANZ Bank forecasting a rise to US$3,600 by year-end.

This rally, driven by central bank purchases and haven demand, underscores gold’s role as a bulwark against geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Brent crude’s 1.8 per cent rise to around US$65 per barrel, spurred by US sanctions on Chinese importers of Iranian oil, highlights the ripple effects of trade policies on commodity markets.

US equities, particularly the energy sector, have shown pockets of resilience, with energy stocks gaining 0.8 per cent amid higher oil prices. However, the broader MSCI US index’s 2.2 per cent tumble reflects the tech sector’s drag and broader tariff fears. Asian equities, trading in a tight range, have been buoyed by hopes of Chinese stimulus, but volatility persists as negotiation headlines dominate. US equity futures, pointing to a 0.4 per cent higher open, suggest a tentative recovery, but the market’s direction remains contingent on trade developments.

From my perspective, the current market environment demands a disciplined, long-term approach. The escalation of US-China tariffs and chip export restrictions poses significant risks to global growth, particularly for the tech and manufacturing sectors. However, opportunities exist in assets such as Bitcoin and gold, which are benefiting from their safe-haven status. Ethereum’s technical setup, while bearish, suggests potential for accumulation by patient investors.

Powell’s cautious stance, while frustrating for those seeking immediate relief, is a prudent response to an unprecedented policy shock. Investors should focus on diversification, prioritising assets with strong fundamentals and resilience to geopolitical volatility. The road ahead is fraught with uncertainty, but those who navigate it with clarity and conviction may find opportunities amid the storm.

In conclusion, the global markets are at a crossroads, shaped by the interplay of trade tensions, monetary policy, and shifting investor sentiment. The US-China tariff war, US-Japan trade talks, and the Fed’s watchful stance are driving volatility across equities, currencies, and commodities. Bitcoin’s resilience, Ethereum’s accumulation potential, and gold’s surge highlight the divergent paths assets are taking in this environment. As negotiations unfold and economic data clarifies the tariff impact, investors must remain agile, balancing risk and opportunity in a rapidly evolving landscape.

Source: https://e27.co/why-markets-are-in-chaos-today-20250417/