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US consumer confidence dips: How it’s hitting Asian stocks, crypto and beyond

US consumer confidence dips: How it’s hitting Asian stocks, crypto and beyond

The situation unfolding on Wednesday, March 26, 2025, paints a fascinating picture of cautious optimism tempered by uncertainty and shifting economic winds. Asian stocks traded in a tight range today, reflecting a market caught in a tug-of-war between faint glimmers of hope and the looming shadows of US policy shifts under President Donald Trump.

Investors seem to be searching for a foothold, grappling with weaker US consumer confidence and the unpredictable spectre of Trump’s forthcoming tariff plans. Let’s dive into this complex landscape and unpack what’s driving these movements, how they’re rippling across asset classes, and what it all might mean for the weeks ahead.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index, a broad barometer of regional equity performance, managed to snap a three-day losing streak with a modest 0.3 per cent gain. It’s a small victory, but one that comes with a caveat: the index lost much of its early momentum as the trading session wore on.

This tepid performance suggests that while there’s some resilience in Asian markets, there’s no clear consensus among investors about where things are headed. The backdrop to this indecision is a US economy showing signs of strain. Consumer confidence in the United States has slumped to a four-year low, with the Conference Board’s latest reading dropping to 92.9 in March from 100.1 in February.

This decline, driven in part by fears of a recession and inflationary pressures tied to Trump’s tariff rhetoric, is casting a long shadow over global markets. For Asian economies, many of which rely heavily on exports to the US, this weakening demand signal is a red flag that’s hard to ignore.

Meanwhile, the specter of Trump’s tariff policies continues to dominate headlines and trading floors alike. With his administration signaling “Liberation Day” on April 2—a date tied to significant tariff announcements—markets are bracing for potential upheaval.

Trump has hinted at reciprocal tariffs, including fresh levies on pharmaceuticals and autos in the near future, as well as secondary tariffs on countries buying oil or gas from Venezuela. These moves, while aimed at bolstering US manufacturing, could disrupt global supply chains and hit Asian exporters hard. The uncertainty is palpable, and it’s no surprise that Asian stocks are struggling to find a decisive direction.

Yet, amidst this unease, there are pockets of strength. Australia’s ASX 200 futures, for instance, are pointing to a brighter start, up 47 points or 0.58 per cent as of 8:30 am AEDT. This uptick suggests that some investors are betting on resilience in commodity-driven markets, perhaps buoyed by surging copper prices in the US, which hit a record high as traders price in the impact of potential import tariffs.

Over in the US, equity markets are showing a different kind of stability. The S&P 500 notched its third consecutive day of gains on Tuesday, though the session was relatively quiet and rangebound. This steady climb follows a volatile period earlier in the month, when tariff fears and economic slowdown concerns sent stocks into a correction. The calm may be deceptive, however, as the 2025-26 US budget announcement last night offered little in the way of surprises.

Most measures had been telegraphed well in advance, leaving markets with no major catalysts to spark a breakout—or a breakdown. Treasury yields are creeping higher, with the 10-year note edging up slightly, while the dollar has paused its four-day rally. It’s a holding pattern of sorts, with investors seemingly waiting for Trump’s next move to dictate the narrative.

Switching gears to the cryptocurrency market, there’s a different story unfolding—one of recovery and cautious optimism. Bitcoin, the bellwether of the crypto world, is hovering around US$87,000 today after clawing back four per cent over the past three days. Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP are also finding support at key technical levels, hinting at a potential rebound. This resilience comes despite the broader market uncertainty, and it’s worth noting that Trump’s tariff plans could have a dual-edged impact here.

On one hand, heightened volatility from trade disruptions might drive safe-haven flows into Bitcoin; on the other, a stronger dollar—often a byproduct of protectionist policies—could cap crypto gains. Traders are keeping a close eye on April 2, when Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements could send shockwaves through digital assets, much as they’re expected to do with traditional markets.

The Solana ecosystem, meanwhile, is generating its own buzz. Solana’s price is sitting around US$142 today, up seven per cent this week, and the platform is gaining traction among institutional heavyweights.

BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund, known as BUIDL, has just launched on Solana, marking a significant expansion from its Ethereum roots. With assets under management surpassing US$1.7 billion, BUIDL’s move to Solana underscores the blockchain’s growing appeal for its speed and scalability.

Adding fuel to this fire, Fidelity has filed for a spot Solana ETF with Cboe Global Markets, a development that’s bolstering SOL’s bullish outlook. These moves by asset management giants signal a broader trend: institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum is accelerating, and Solana is positioning itself as a prime beneficiary. For investors, this could mean more upside potential, though the tariff wildcard looms large over the entire crypto space.

Contrast this with Ripple’s XRP, which is struggling to capitalise on what should have been a positive development. On Tuesday, Ripple announced it would drop its cross-appeal against the SEC, effectively ending a four-year legal saga that culminated in a US$125 million judgment last August. This resolution should have cleared a major overhang for XRP, potentially paving the way for ETF filings or broader adoption.

Yet, the token’s price has remained stubbornly muted. Why the lackluster response? It could be that the market had already priced in this outcome, or perhaps the broader uncertainty around US regulatory policy under Trump is keeping a lid on enthusiasm. Whatever the reason, XRP’s inability to rally stands in stark contrast to Solana’s momentum, highlighting the uneven recovery across the crypto landscape.

Back in the equity world, individual stock movements are adding texture to the broader narrative. ANZ, one of Australia’s big four banks, saw an abrupt 3.1 per cent sell-off toward the close on Tuesday, a move that caught some traders off guard. It’ll be intriguing to see if it can bounce back today, especially given the positive tilt in ASX 200 futures.

The sell-off might reflect profit-taking after a strong run, or it could hint at sector-specific concerns—perhaps tied to tariff impacts on Australia’s trade-heavy economy. Either way, it’s a reminder that beneath the surface of index-level stability, there’s plenty of churn and opportunity for the astute observer.

I see a world in transition—one where old certainties are giving way to new risks and opportunities. Asian stocks’ tight trading range reflects a market that’s hesitant but not defeated, caught between US economic headwinds and the promise of regional resilience. The surge in copper and the steadying S&P 500 suggest that some investors are willing to bet on a soft landing, even as consumer confidence wanes.

In the crypto space, Solana’s rise and XRP’s stagnation highlight the power of institutional momentum versus regulatory fatigue. And looming over it all is Trump’s tariff agenda, a wild card that could either ignite a global trade war or fizzle into pragmatic compromise.

My gut tells me we’re in for more volatility before clarity emerges, but for those with a keen eye and a steady hand, there’s plenty of potential to navigate this storm. The next few weeks, particularly around April 2, will be pivotal—mark your calendars and keep your wits about you.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/us-consumer-confidence-dips-how-its-hitting-asian-stocks-crypto-and-beyond-20250326/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Treasury yields up, Ethereum down: Tariffs hit traditional and crypto

Treasury yields up, Ethereum down: Tariffs hit traditional and crypto

Looking at the evolving narrative around Trump’s tariff policies and their ripple effects across markets, currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. The question at hand offers a rich tapestry of data points—ranging from US economic indicators to equity market movements, Treasury yields, and the intriguing interplay between Trump’s America-First agenda and the crypto sphere.

A blend of optimism for market resilience and a healthy scepticism about the long-term implications of protectionist policies shapes my perspective. Let’s dive into this multifaceted story, unpacking the facts, analysing the trends, and offering a grounded take on what it all means.

The weekend headlines suggesting that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, slated for April 2, might be more targeted and flexible than feared have undeniably lifted global risk sentiment. This shift in tone is a breath of fresh air for investors who’ve been bracing for a blunt, across-the-board trade war that could throttle growth and stoke inflation. The idea that the administration might tailor these tariffs—perhaps sparing certain sectors or negotiating carve-outs—hints at a pragmatic streak beneath the bombastic rhetoric.

It’s a signal that Trump, now in his second term, may be tempering his approach with an eye on economic stability rather than just political theatre. Markets responded swiftly, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.8 per cent, the Dow Jones gaining 1.4 per cent, and the Nasdaq surging 2.3 per cent, driven by a 3.4 per cent rally in the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps—think Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia. This buoyancy reflects a collective sigh of relief, a belief that the tariff storm might not be as destructive as anticipated.

On the data front, the US March PMIs paint a nuanced picture. The uptick in the Services PMI is a welcome surprise, easing fears of a sharp economic slowdown and suggesting that the consumer-driven backbone of the US economy remains intact. Services, after all, account for over two-thirds of US GDP, so any sign of resilience here is a bulwark against recession chatter.

But the manufacturing PMI slipping back into contraction territory—below the 50 threshold—raises a red flag. The culprit? A tariff-related spike in materials costs. Manufacturers are already feeling the pinch of uncertainty, with supply chains recalibrating and input prices ticking up.

This divergence between services and manufacturing underscores a bifurcated economy: one part humming along, the other creaking under trade policy pressures. It’s a reminder that tariffs, even if targeted, don’t operate in a vacuum—they ripple through production networks, hitting some sectors harder than others.

The bond market’s reaction reinforces this cautious optimism tinged with concern. US Treasuries fell on Monday, pushing yields up across the curve. The 2-year yield rose 8.6 basis points to 4.035 per cent, while the 10-year yield climbed 8.8 basis points to 4.335 per cent. This uptick reflects a dialling back of expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, as investors digest the possibility that tariffs could keep inflation stubbornly above the Fed’s two per cent target.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s comments amplify this shift: he’s now projecting just one rate cut in 2025, down from two, and doesn’t see inflation hitting two per cent until early 2027. That’s a significant recalibration, signaling that the Fed might stay hawkish longer than hoped, especially if tariff-induced price pressures persist. The Fed’s reticence to push back on this market repricing suggests they’re in wait-and-see mode, letting the data—and Trump’s policy moves—dictate the pace.

The US Dollar Index, up 0.2 per cent to 104.30, its highest since early March, is another piece of the puzzle. A stronger dollar aligns with the narrative of a US economy holding its own amid global uncertainty, bolstered by higher yields and a perception of relative safety. But it’s a double-edged sword—while it boosts purchasing power for American consumers, it squeezes exporters and multinational corporations, potentially denting S&P 500 earnings down the line.

Commodities, meanwhile, tell a split story: gold dipped 0.4 per cent, perhaps as risk-on sentiment reduced its safe-haven appeal, while Brent crude rose 1.2 per cent to US$69.11 per barrel, buoyed by supply-side optimism or perhaps a flicker of demand recovery in Asia.

Speaking of Asia, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index snapping a three-day losing streak with a 0.46 per cent gain is a subtle but telling sign. India’s SENSEX 30, up 1.40 per cent, has clawed back nearly all its year-to-date losses, showcasing the resilience of an economy less exposed to US trade whims.

Chinese stocks, too, caught a bid—Hang Seng up 0.91 per cent, CSI 300 up 0.51 per cent — possibly reflecting hopes that targeted tariffs might spare Beijing the worst. Yet early trading today showed mixed results across Asian indices, hinting that the relief rally might be fragile, contingent on further clarity from Washington.

Now, let’s pivot to crypto, where Trump’s influence is weaving an unexpected thread. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of US$84.17 million yesterday, marking seven straight days of gains. Fidelity’s FBTC led the pack with US$82.85 million, pushing its historical total to US$11.47 billion, while Bitwise’s BITB added US$19.23 million. Even with Ark Invest’s ARKB shedding $40.97 million, the broader trend is clear: institutional appetite for Bitcoin remains robust.

This resilience stands in contrast to Ethereum, which is grappling with its own challenges. ETH tested resistance at US$2,069 on Monday, buoyed by transaction fees hitting an all-time low—a double-edged sword. Lower fees might attract users, but they also signal waning network activity, a bearish undercurrent for a blockchain whose valuation hinges on usage. Grayscale’s research team nailed it: Ethereum’s price weakness—down 35 per cent in two months—ties directly to this fee slump and a broader crypto downturn sparked by Trump’s tariff threats.

The correlation between crypto and macroeconomics is tightening, and Trump’s policies are a big driver. US spot Ethereum ETFs have bled nearly US$390 million over 13 consecutive days of outflows, per Farside data, while on-chain metrics like transaction counts echo pre-election lows. Validators and token burners, who rely on fees, are feeling the pinch, undermining ETH’s value proposition.

Yet here’s where it gets fascinating: Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG) is diving headfirst into this space, partnering with Crypto.com to launch “America-First Investment Funds” under the Truth.fi brand. These ETFs and SMAs, backed by a US$250 million TMTG investment and custodied by Charles Schwab, will span cryptocurrencies and “Made in America” securities—think energy and manufacturing. Trademarks like Truth.Fi Bitcoin Plus ETF and Truth.Fi US Energy Independence ETF scream Trump’s playbook: blending nationalism with financial innovation.

This move is a masterstroke of branding and ambition. By tying crypto to an America-First ethos, Trump’s team is betting on a narrative that could galvanise retail and institutional investors alike. It’s a counterpoint to Ethereum’s struggles—Bitcoin, with its ETF inflows, is riding a wave of momentum, while ETH languishes. The tariff flexibility hinted at over the weekend might bolster this venture further; if energy and manufacturing sectors get a pass, those “Made in America” funds could thrive, drawing capital away from more volatile altcoins like Ether.

Let me sum up. The US economy’s resilience, as seen in the Services PMI and equity gains, is real, but manufacturing’s woes and sticky inflation (thanks, tariffs) temper my optimism. The Fed’s hawkish tilt and a stronger dollar could cap upside, especially if global growth falters. In Asia, selective strength—India and China holding firm—suggests diversification might shield some markets, but the jury’s out on sustainability.

Crypto’s split fate—Bitcoin soaring, Ethereum stumbling—mirrors this dichotomy, with Trump’s Truth.fi gambit potentially reshaping the landscape. I’m cautiously bullish on equities and Bitcoin, skeptical of ETH’s near-term prospects, and watchful of how Trump’s tariff chess game unfolds. It’s a high-stakes story, and we’re only in the opening chapter.

 

Source: https://e27.co/treasury-yields-up-ethereum-down-tariffs-hit-traditional-and-crypto-20250325/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Fed’s 2025 rate cuts: How they shape stocks, gold and crypto

Fed’s 2025 rate cuts: How they shape stocks, gold and crypto

Over the weekend, fresh headlines hinted that President Donald Trump’s much-discussed reciprocal tariffs, slated for April 2, might not be the broad, blunt instrument markets initially feared. Instead, they could be more targeted, potentially easing some of the anxiety that’s kept investors on edge. But let’s not kid ourselves—the situation remains fluid, and a major risk still looms large. Markets hate uncertainty, and this story is far from written.

Last week offered a glimpse into how these dynamics are playing out. The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest dot plot stuck to its script, signalling expectations of two rate cuts this year despite a bump in near-term inflation projections from 2.5 per cent to 2.8 per cent.

That’s a notable shift—it suggests the Fed sees price pressures sticking around a bit longer than anticipated. Meanwhile, the median growth forecast took a hit, sliding from 2.1 per cent to 1.7 per cent, a clear nod to the mounting headwinds facing the US economy.

Friday’s market action encapsulated the mood: equities spent most of the day in the red, only to be yanked into positive territory by a late rally from mega-cap tech giants, nudging the S&P 500 up 0.1 per cent by the close. It’s a classic case of the market’s bipolar nature—pessimism giving way to a flicker of optimism driven by a handful of heavyweights.

The bond market, meanwhile, told its own story. The US Treasury yield curve steepened, with long-end yields creeping higher after Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested the banking system still has plenty of reserves to handle the Fed’s ongoing Treasury runoff without disruption. The 10-year yield edged up 0.9 basis points to 4.246 per cent, reflecting confidence in the longer-term outlook.

At the front end, however, yields dipped—the 2-year yield fell 1.6 basis points to 3.948 per cent—as markets priced in more Fed easing to come. It’s a delicate balancing act: the Fed resisting short-term pressure to pivot aggressively while signalling it’s not blind to the softening growth picture.

The US Dollar Index, up 0.2 per cent to 104.09, notched its first weekly gain in three weeks, a subtle flex of muscle amid the uncertainty. Commodities offered a mixed bag: gold, often a safe-haven darling, shed 0.7 per cent as profit-taking kicked in, while Brent crude eked out a 0.2 per cent gain, buoyed perhaps by geopolitical jitters or steady demand signals.

Over in Asia, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index dropped 0.9 per cent on Friday—its third straight day of losses—dragged down by tariff fears, though it still managed a 1.22 per cent weekly gain. Chinese tech stocks weren’t so lucky; profit-taking hammered the Hang Seng and CSI 300, which slumped 2.19 per cent and 1.52 per cent, respectively, as investors cashed out amid the overhang of potential trade disruptions.

Looking ahead, this week’s economic calendar is packed with potential market movers. Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—will be the headliner, offering fresh clues on whether those upwardly revised inflation projections hold water.

Earlier in the week, the UK’s February CPI on Tuesday and Tokyo’s March CPI on Friday will shed light on global price trends. Stateside, the Congressional Budget Office’s debt ceiling estimate on Wednesday could stir the pot, especially with the Treasury’s cash pile under scrutiny.

And let’s not forget the steady drumbeat of Fedspeak—comments from Fed officials could either soothe or spook markets, depending on their tone.

Asia’s in the spotlight too. The China Development Forum, which kicked off in Beijing on Sunday and wraps up today, Monday, March 24, has drawn global business leaders eager to gauge China’s next moves. Some are slated to meet President Xi Jinping later this week, a rare chance to take the pulse of China’s leadership amid trade tensions. Early trading in Asian equities today has been a mixed bag, reflecting the push and pull of optimism over narrower tariffs and lingering unease about what’s next.

Then there’s the crypto angle, which has been lighting up financial headlines. Bitcoin, XRP, and Solana (SOL) kicked off Monday with gains, riding a wave of positivity tied to those reports of more targeted Trump tariffs. Bitcoin’s hovering around US$86,500, up 2.7 per cent in the last 24 hours, while SOL’s outpacing the pack with a near six per cent jump to US$138. The S&P 500 futures are cheering, too, pointing to a higher open for US stocks.

It’s tempting to see this as a sign that Bitcoin may have found a floor, with some analysts eyeing a rebound toward US$90,000 if tariff fears continue to ease and the Fed holds steady. Trump’s signalling of a lighter touch on trade and the Fed’s resistance to knee-jerk rate cuts last week seems to have injected a dose of cautious optimism into the crypto space.

Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy is another piece of this puzzle. The company’s CEO has been dropping hints via his “Saylor Bitcoin Tracker” posts on X, a reliable signal that more Bitcoin buys are coming. Sure enough, the word is that MicroStrategy might announce a massive purchase—potentially 500,000 BTC, worth billions—tomorrow morning.

Saylor’s strategy of scooping up Bitcoin during dips has turned MicroStrategy into a crypto behemoth, with its holdings currently valued at US$8.73 billion, down from a peak of US$19.50 billion. It’s a bold bet on Bitcoin’s long-term value, and if this rumoured US$21 billion acquisition pans out, it could light a fire under the market just as sentiment starts to thaw.

Fidelity Investments is making waves too, stepping into blockchain tokenisation with a filing to register a tokenised version of its US dollar money market fund on the Ethereum network. Submitted last Thursday to the SEC, the plan involves a new “OnChain” share class for its US$80 million Fidelity Treasury Digital Fund, mostly made up of US Treasury bills.

It’s a move that echoes efforts by BlackRock and Franklin Templeton, signalling that traditional finance is increasingly cozying up to blockchain’s promise of transparency and efficiency. If approved, it could mark a turning point for how institutional money flows into digital assets.

Ethereum itself is a bit of a paradox right now. The price has been sliding—down over 51 per cent from its December peak of US$4,100 to around US$2,000—yet so-called “Ethereum whales” are quietly stacking their bags. Glassnode data shows wallets holding at least US$100,000 worth of ETH jumped from 70,000 on March 10 to over 75,000 by March 22, a stark contrast to the 146,000 seen when ETH was flying high in December. Analysts are eyeing a potential breakout to US$2,200 if buying pressure builds, but for now, ETH’s stuck in a rut, caught between whale accumulation and broader market malaise.

The prospect of more targeted tariffs is a lifeline for markets desperate for clarity, but the risks haven’t vanished—they’ve just shifted shape. The Fed’s juggling act—balancing inflation worries with growth concerns—keeps everyone guessing, and this week’s data could tip the scales either way.

Crypto’s riding a wave of cautious hope, bolstered by big players like Saylor and Fidelity, but it’s tethered to the same macro uncertainties as equities and bonds. Asia’s fate hinges on how China navigates this tariff tightrope, and the US debt ceiling looms as a wildcard. It’s a high-stakes game, and while the pieces are moving, the board’s still a mess.

 

Source: https://e27.co/feds-2025-rate-cuts-how-they-shape-stocks-gold-and-crypto-20250324/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j