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Global markets on edge: Trade wars, tariffs, and crypto chaos in focus

Global markets on edge: Trade wars, tariffs, and crypto chaos in focus

It is clear that the world is navigating a complex and uneasy landscape. I will be sharing my observations for 25 February 2025. Monday’s choppy trading session on Wall Street painted a vivid picture of the uncertainty gripping investors, with major US equity indices finishing the day as a mixed bag.

The MSCI US index slipped 0.6 per cent, dragged lower by a 1.5 per cent drop in the information technology sector, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq took an even sharper hit, tumbling 1.2 per cent. What’s driving this jittery sentiment?

Trade war fears are casting a long shadow, fuelled by President Donald Trump’s latest comments on sweeping tariffs targeting imports from Canada and Mexico, set to kick in next week after a month-long delay expires. Add to that his memorandum aimed at curbing Chinese investment in key American sectors like tech and energy, and you’ve got a recipe for heightened global risk aversion.

Let’s start with the trade war angle, because it’s the elephant in the room. Trump’s insistence that tariffs on Canada and Mexico “will go forward” has sent ripples through markets already on edge. These aren’t small players—Canada supplies roughly 60 per cent of US crude oil imports, while Mexico is a critical cog in the North American supply chain, particularly for auto parts and manufacturing.

A 25 per cent tariff on these imports, as Trump has hinted, could jolt consumer prices for everything from gasoline to cars, stoking inflation fears at a time when the Federal Reserve is gearing up to digest key inflation data later this week. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a Fed favourite, is on the horizon, and any sign of tariff-driven price spikes could complicate its delicate balancing act between growth and inflation control.

Markets are already pricing in this tension, with US Treasury yields dipping slightly—10-year yields fell 2 basis points to 4.40 per cent, and 2-year yields hovered around 4.17 per cent. It’s a subtle shift, but it signals investors seeking safety amid the storm.

Across the Atlantic, there’s a glimmer of stability amidst the chaos. Germany’s federal election on Sunday delivered a win for Friedrich Merz and the conservative CDU/CSU coalition, a result that’s been met with cautious optimism. Merz’s victory sidesteps the extremes of populist upheaval, offering a steady hand to Europe’s largest economy at a time when trade tensions could easily spill over into the Eurozone.

German stocks have seen a modest lift from this outcome, though broader European indices like the Stoxx 600 haven’t escaped the tariff-related gloom, shedding 0.7 per cent earlier this week. It’s a reminder that while domestic politics can provide a buffer, the interconnectedness of global trade means no one’s fully insulated from Trump’s tariff salvo.

Over in Asia, the mood is decidedly sour. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index dropped 0.91 per cent on Monday, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 relinquishing early gains to close down 0.58 per cent and 0.22 per cent, respectively. Chinese tech stocks, already battered by regulatory scrutiny and a slowing domestic economy, took another hit as Trump’s memorandum targeting Chinese investment in US tech and energy sectors added fuel to the fire.

This isn’t just about tariffs—it’s a broader signal of escalating US-China rivalry, with strategic sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy caught in the crosshairs. Early trading in Asia this morning showed indices still in the red, though US equity futures are hinting at a potential rebound when Wall Street opens later today. It’s a classic push-and-pull—risk-off sentiment clashing with bargain-hunting optimism.

Commodities, meanwhile, are telling their own story. Gold climbed 0.4 per cent to a record high on Monday, a clear sign that safe-haven demand is surging as investors brace for turbulence. Brent crude nudged up 0.5 per cent, buoyed by fresh US sanctions on Iran and OPEC’s pledge to offset overproduction, though the bigger picture remains murky.

Tariffs on Canadian oil could tighten North American supply chains, potentially pushing prices higher, but a broader trade war might dampen global demand, pulling them back down. It’s a tug-of-war that’s keeping oil traders on their toes. The US Dollar Index, meanwhile, held steady at 106.66, reflecting a market that’s not yet ready to bet big on either a flight to safety or a risk-on rally.

Now, let’s pivot to the crypto corner, where the mood is even bleaker. Ether, Solana, and Dogecoin are reeling, down 5 per cent, 8.3 per cent, and 7 per cent respectively, as the sector licks its wounds from last week’s massive hack—the biggest in its history. Since mid-December, most altcoins have shed 30-80 per cent of their value, according to Arca, a digital asset manager.

Bitcoin’s holding up better, hovering around US$94,300, but the broader crypto market is under siege. The guilty plea from OKX, a major exchange, for violating US anti-money laundering laws doesn’t help—it’s a US$505 million reminder of the regulatory risks still haunting the space.

Yet, there’s a silver lining in South Korea, where the Financial Services Commission (FSC) just greenlit a roadmap for institutional investors to dive into digital assets. Starting in the second half of 2025, corporates can open real-name accounts to sell crypto for fiat, with plans to expand access gradually. Blockchain advisor Anndy Lian’s bold prediction—that this could vault South Korea to the top of global crypto trading by year-end—might seem ambitious, but it underscores the shifting tides in institutional adoption.

So, where does this leave us? From my vantage point, the global risk sentiment feels like a tightrope walk. The tariff threats are real and imminent, with Canada and Mexico bracing for impact next week. The US economy, already navigating a post-pandemic recovery, could face higher costs and slower growth if trade frictions escalate, though Trump’s camp would argue it’s a necessary move to protect American jobs.

China’s tech clampdown adds another layer of complexity, potentially accelerating a decoupling that’s been years in the making. Yet, there are counterweights—Germany’s political stability, South Korea’s crypto pivot, and the resilience of safe-haven assets like gold suggest pockets of calm amid the storm.

I can’t help but see this as a pivotal moment. The data backs up the unease: equity indices are faltering, yields are softening, and crypto’s taking a beating. But there’s also a case for cautious optimism—US futures are pointing up, and Asia’s losses could be a buying opportunity for the bold. My take? We’re in for a bumpy ride, but markets have a way of finding their footing.

The real test will come later this week with those US inflation numbers—if they’re hotter than expected, all bets are off. For now, I’d keep an eye on gold and the dollar, the quiet sentinels of a world holding its breath.

 

Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-on-edge-trade-wars-tariffs-and-crypto-chaos-in-focus-20250225/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

TradFi feels the chill, crypto heats up: US slowdown meets Asia’s digital surge

TradFi feels the chill, crypto heats up: US slowdown meets Asia’s digital surge

The recent retreat in global risk sentiment, driven by a cocktail of weaker-than-expected US economic data and shifting investor moods. The numbers coming out of the US last week painted a concerning picture: manufacturing growth slowed more than anticipated, services took an unexpected dive into contraction territory, and consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, slumped to its lowest level since November 2023.

Add to that the spectre of rising inflation expectations, and it’s no surprise that markets reacted with a collective wince. Major US equity indices ended Friday in the red, with the MSCI US index dropping 1.8 per cent, led by steep declines in Consumer Discretionary (down 2.7 per cent) and Information Technology (down 2.5 per cent). Treasury yields also pulled back, with the 10-year dipping seven basis points to 4.42 per cent and the 2-year falling 6 basis points to 4.20 per cent.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index edged up 0.2 per cent, hitting a high of 106.74 before settling at 106.61. Gold, despite a slight 0.1 per cent dip on Friday due to profit-taking, is still on track for an eighth consecutive weekly gain, buoyed by safe-haven demand tied to uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s tariff proposals. Brent crude, however, slid 2.7 per cent, reflecting jitteriness over a potential Ukraine peace deal.

Over in Asia, the mood was a bit more upbeat, with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index climbing 1.76 per cent to notch a sixth straight week of gains, powered by a rally in Chinese tech stocks—Hang Seng soared 4.0 per cent, CSI 300 rose 1.3 per cent, and TAIEX gained 1.0 per cent. Germany’s election results, announced this morning, aligned with polls, with Friedrich Merz’s conservative bloc taking nearly 29 per cent and the far-right Alternative for Germany doubling its share to over 20 per cent. Asian markets opened mixed today, but US equity futures suggest a rebound might be on the horizon.

Let’s unpack this a bit.

TheUS data from S&P Global was a double whammy—manufacturing PMI for February came in weaker than economists had hoped, signaling a slowdown in one of the economy’s key engines. Even more surprising was the services PMI, which flipped into contraction after months of resilience. This isn’t just a blip; it’s a red flag that the US economy might be losing steam faster than anticipated.

The University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropping to its lowest in over a year only adds fuel to the fire. Consumers are clearly rattled, and the culprit seems to be inflation expectations creeping higher. With Trump’s tariff threats looming large—potentially slapping hefty duties on imports from China and elsewhere—households and businesses alike are bracing for higher costs. That fear is palpable in the equity markets, where riskier sectors like Consumer Discretionary and Info Tech bore the brunt of the sell-off.

Investors appear to be rotating out of growth stocks and into safer bets, as evidenced by the drop in Treasury yields. Lower yields typically signal a flight to safety, though the modest uptick in the US Dollar Index suggests some lingering confidence in the greenback as a haven currency amid global uncertainty.

Gold’s performance is particularly telling. Even with Friday’s slight retreat, its eight-week winning streak underscores how jittery investors are. Trump’s tariff talk isn’t just a domestic issue—it’s a global one. If he follows through, we could see supply chain disruptions, higher input costs, and a ripple effect across commodity markets. Gold thrives in times like these, and its resilience despite profit-taking shows that safe-haven demand isn’t going anywhere.

Brent crude’s decline, on the other hand, reflects a different dynamic. The prospect of a Ukraine peace deal could ease geopolitical tensions and reduce oil supply risks, but the uncertainty is keeping traders on edge. A 2.7 per cent drop isn’t catastrophic, but it’s enough to signal that energy markets are grappling with mixed signals.

Asia’s story offers a glimmer of hope amid the gloom. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index’s 1.76 per cent bounce on Friday, driven by Chinese tech giants, suggests that some pockets of the global economy are still finding their footing. The Hang Seng’s 4.0 per cent surge was a standout, fueled by optimism around China’s tech sector, which has been clawing back ground after years of regulatory crackdowns.

The CSI 300 and TAIEX followed suit, though gains were more modest at 1.3 per cent and 1.0per cent, respectively. This resilience could be a sign that Asian markets are decoupling—at least temporarily—from US woes. China’s stimulus measures and a weaker yuan might be giving exporters a boost, while tech firms benefit from renewed investor appetite. That said, Monday’s mixed start in Asian equities hints that the rally might not have legs unless US markets stabilise.

Switching gears to Europe, Germany’s election results are worth a closer look. Friedrich Merz’s conservative bloc securing nearly 29 per cent of the vote isn’t a shock—polls had been pointing that way for weeks. What’s more eyebrow-raising is the Alternative for Germany (AfD) doubling its share to over 20 per cent. The far-right’s gains signal a growing populist undercurrent that could complicate Merz’s coalition-building efforts.

A Merz-led government might lean toward fiscal conservatism and tougher trade stances, which could clash with Trump’s tariff agenda and add another layer of uncertainty to global markets. For now, though, the immediate market impact seems muted—Asian equities didn’t flinch much this morning, and US futures are pointing to a higher open, suggesting traders are more focused on domestic data than Berlin’s political shuffle.

Then there’s the crypto angle, which feels like a subplot that’s gaining traction. Deribit’s push into Hong Kong is a fascinating development. The city, alongside Singapore, is racing to become Asia’s crypto hub, and Trump’s pro-crypto rhetoric is fanning the flames. Deribit’s chief commercial officer, Jean-David Péquignot, hit the nail on the head—Hong Kong’s appeal lies in its status as a financial nexus and its growing pool of family offices and asset managers dabbling in digital assets. This isn’t just about retail speculation anymore; institutional interest is picking up, and Hong Kong wants a piece of the pie.

Singapore’s in the game too, with both cities rolling out regulatory frameworks to lure crypto firms. The broader market, however, is showing some cracks—AI Agents like ai16z, Fartcoin, and Turbo tanked over five per cent in the last 24 hours, though AIXBT bucked the trend with a 4.06 per cent gain. Ethereum’s holding steady, up 0.58 per cent, thanks in part to buzz around the Ethereum Ecosystem Conference.

But the real wild card is Ye’s “Swasticoin” stunt. His now-deleted posts teasing a token launch next week—after years of slamming similar projects—reek of provocation. Whether it’s a serious move or just Kanye being Kanye, it’s a reminder of how chaotic and hype-driven the crypto space can be. Investors would be wise to steer clear until the dust settles.

So, what’s my take on all this?

The retreat in global risk sentiment feels like a natural response to a US economy that’s flashing warning signs. Manufacturing and services data don’t lie—growth is slowing, and consumers are spooked. Trump’s tariff threats are amplifying the unease, pushing investors toward gold and away from equities. Asia’s resilience is a bright spot, but it’s fragile—dependent on China’s tech momentum and broader market stability.

Germany’s election adds a political twist, though it’s not the main event yet. And the crypto boom in Hong Kong and Singapore? It’s exciting, but the Ye drama underscores the sector’s volatility. We’re in a choppy phase—markets hate uncertainty, and there’s plenty of it to go around.

My gut says we’ll see more turbulence before any clear trend emerges, but if US futures are right, a short-term bounce could be in the cards. Long term, though, it’s anyone’s guess until we get more clarity on Trump’s policies and the US economic trajectory. Stay sharp—this ride’s far from over. Hope you like my observations for 24 February 2025.

 

Source: https://e27.co/tradfi-feels-the-chill-crypto-heats-up-us-slowdown-meets-asias-digital-surge-20250224/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Wall Street’s volatility spills into crypto: TradFi’s domino effect

Wall Street’s volatility spills into crypto: TradFi’s domino effect

The recent retreat in global risk sentiment, sparked by a cascade of events that began with a disappointing outlook from retail titan Walmart. This development, coupled with a slew of economic data and policy commentary, has painted a multifaceted picture of where markets might be headed.

Let me walk you through what’s happening, why it matters, and what it could mean for investors, consumers, and the broader economic landscape.

The news broke earlier this week when Walmart, a bellwether for the US consumer economy, issued guidance that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. The retail giant projected net sales growth of just three per cent for the current year, a figure that rattled investors who had grown accustomed to more robust forecasts from the world’s largest retailer. Walmart cited an “uncertain geopolitical landscape” as a key factor, pointing to ongoing tariff jitters and broader economic headwinds.

Shares of the company dropped over six per cent in response, dragging down the Dow Jones Industrials and sending ripples through the Consumer Discretionary sector, which shed 1.2 per cent according to the MSCI US index. Financials weren’t spared either, declining 1.6 per cent, as the broader MSCI US index slipped 0.4 per cent. This wasn’t just a Walmart story—it was a signal that investors were starting to question the resilience of the US consumer and the economy at large.

Adding fuel to these concerns, the latest US jobless claims data didn’t offer much reassurance. Both initial and continuing claims rose week-over-week, coming in slightly above what analysts had anticipated. While the uptick was modest—described by some economists as “trivial” or “just noise”—it nonetheless chipped away at the narrative of a rock-solid labor market.

For months, the US economy has been buoyed by a tight jobs picture, with unemployment hovering near historic lows. But even small cracks in that foundation can amplify worries, especially when paired with Walmart’s cautious outlook. After all, if the labor market starts to wobble, consumer spending—the engine of the US economy—could follow suit, hitting retailers like Walmart hardest.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s voice has added another layer of nuance to this unfolding story. St. Louis Fed President Raphael Musalem weighed in with a sobering take, arguing that monetary policy should remain “modestly restrictive” until inflation is firmly on track to hit the central bank’s two per cent target. Despite recent data showing inflation cooling somewhat and the labor market holding steady, Musalem isn’t convinced the battle is won.

He warned that the risks of inflation stalling above two per cent—or even climbing higher—are “skewed to the upside.” This hawkish stance suggests the Fed isn’t ready to pivot to rate cuts anytime soon, a prospect that’s kept markets on edge. Investors had been hoping for a more dovish signal, especially after a string of solid economic reports, but Musalem’s comments underscore the Fed’s laser focus on price stability, even if it means squeezing the economy a bit longer.

The bond market reflected this tension. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note slipped 3 basis points overnight to 4.50 per cent, a subtle but telling move. Over the past week, yields have declined in four out of five sessions, pulling back from the upper end of their recent range.

This shift hints at a market that’s recalibrating—moving away from fears of runaway inflation and toward a more neutral outlook. With tariff details still murky and the US data calendar looking light until the January PCE inflation report drops on February 28, yields might stay anchored around 4.50 per cent for now. That stability could offer a breather for equity markets, but it’s hardly a green light for a sustained rally.

On the currency front, the Japanese yen stole the spotlight, surging to its strongest level against the dollar since December. Speculation is rife that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might hike rates sooner than expected, a move that would mark a significant shift from its long-standing ultra-loose policy.

The yen’s strength weighed on the US Dollar Index, which slid 0.8 per cent to 106.4. Gold, meanwhile, edged up 0.2per cent, inching closer to the US$3,000 mark as safe-haven demand ticked higher amid the uncertainty. Brent crude also nudged up 0.5 per cent to US$77 per barrel, buoyed by a mix of supply concerns and cautious optimism about global demand. Asian equity indices, however, were a mixed bag in early trading, reflecting the uneven sentiment rippling across markets.

Now, let’s pivot to an intriguing subplot in the financial world: the SEC’s approval of a yield-bearing stablecoin from Figure Certificate Co., dubbed YLDs. Unlike traditional stablecoins like Tether’s USDT, which generate billions in reserve income for issuers but offer no yield to holders, YLDs promise to share the wealth. By investing reserves in US Treasuries and commercial paper, Figure aims to deliver returns to investors while maintaining the stablecoin’s peg to the dollar.

The SEC’s decision to classify YLDs as “certificates” under securities regulations sets a new precedent, distinguishing them from the unregulated wild west of other crypto assets. This move could shake up the stablecoin market, offering a model that balances stability with profitability—a rare combo in the crypto space.

Speaking of crypto, the broader market is grappling with its own demons. Nearly a quarter of the top 200 cryptocurrencies have hit their lowest levels in over a year, with 24 per cent tumbling to 365-day lows after a sharp decline on February 7. Analysts are split on what this means.

Some, like Juan Pellicer from IntoTheBlock, see it as a temporary correction—a healthy shakeout after a period of exuberance. Others aren’t so sure, warning that this could signal a deeper capitulation, reminiscent of past bear markets. The debate over whether crypto is in a bull or bear cycle rages on, but one thing’s clear: sentiment is fragile, and these price drops are testing the resolve of even the most ardent believers.

So, what’s my take on all this? I see a world in flux, where optimism and caution are locked in a tug-of-war. Walmart’s warning is a red flag, no doubt—it’s hard to ignore when a company that touches millions of consumers signals trouble ahead. Pair that with rising jobless claims, and you’ve got a recipe for unease.

But I’m not ready to call it a full-blown crisis just yet. The labour market still has muscle, and the Fed’s steady hand—while frustrating for growth-hungry investors—shows a commitment to avoiding the inflationary spirals of the past. The pullback in Treasury yields and the yen’s strength suggest markets are finding a new equilibrium, not plunging into chaos.

The YLDs stablecoin experiment fascinates me—it’s a glimpse of how crypto might evolve beyond speculative mania into something more practical and regulated. As for the broader crypto downturn, I lean toward the correction camp. Markets need to breathe, and this could be a reset before the next leg up—or down.

Ultimately, we’re in a holding pattern, waiting for clearer signals on tariffs, inflation, and Fed policy. Until then, expect volatility, but don’t bet on a collapse just yet. The data’s too mixed, and the world’s too resilient, for that.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/wall-streets-volatility-spills-into-crypto-tradfis-domino-effect-20250221/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j