Tag Archives: crypto

Why institutional money isn’t saving crypto from this sell-off

Why institutional money isn’t saving crypto from this sell-off

While traditional equity markets celebrated a historic relief rally, the cryptocurrency market posted a 1.42 per cent decline, settling at US$2.41T. This divergence tells a compelling story about the maturing yet still volatile nature of digital assets. As Wall Street surged on news of a temporary peace deal between the US and Iran and promises to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, crypto investors chose to lock in profits and unwind leveraged positions rather than join the broader risk-on celebration.

The contrast between these markets could not be starker. The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged its best day since April 2025, jumping 2.85 per cent to 47,910.79. The S&P 500 climbed 2.51 per cent to 6,782.83, and the Nasdaq surged 2.80 per cent to 22,635.00. Crypto showed a 69 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 and an even stronger 77 per cent correlation with Gold, which climbed to US$4,800 per ounce. Digital assets underperformed significantly despite these correlations. Internal market dynamics within the crypto ecosystem overpowered the positive macroeconomic backdrop that sent traditional markets soaring.

The primary culprit behind crypto weakness was a broad-based altcoin sell-off accompanied by aggressive unwinding of leverage. The Altcoin Season Index plummeted 12.82 per cent over the past week, signalling a clear rotation of capital away from higher-beta, riskier assets. Sectors such as the Binance Ecosystem and tokens under SEC or CFTC scrutiny fell approximately 1.6 per cent to 1.75 per cent, underperforming the broader market. This was not a panic-driven exodus triggered by negative news, but rather a calculated reduction in speculative exposure after recent gains.

Derivatives data reveals the mechanics of this de-risking. Bitcoin saw US$74.66M in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with short liquidations dominating. This indicates that leveraged positions were forcibly closed as traders scrambled to reduce exposure. Such forced liquidations often create cascading effects, amplifying downward pressure as margin calls trigger additional selling. The market essentially experienced a healthy flush of excess leverage, removing the frothy speculative positions that had built up during the recent rally.

Institutional demand, while still present, showed signs of cooling just when the market needed fresh capital inflows to counteract the profit-taking wave. Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF launch drew US$34M in day-one inflows, a respectable start but insufficient to offset the broader outflow pressure. The Fear and Greed Index sat at a neutral 43, representing a significant cooling from fear levels recorded last month. This neutral sentiment reflects a lack of the strong bullish conviction needed to push prices higher amid widespread profit-taking.

The timing of this crypto correction amid traditional market euphoria reveals an important maturation in the way digital assets respond to macroeconomic events. While equities rallied on the geopolitical breakthrough that sent crude oil prices plunging 16 per cent to US$94.41 a barrel, crypto investors appeared more focused on technical levels and internal market structure. The US Dollar Index, retreating 1.17 per cent to 98.6 points, and the 10-year Treasury yield, holding steady at 4.30 per cent, created a generally favourable macro backdrop, yet crypto remained constrained by its own internal dynamics.

Traditional market sector performance highlighted the dramatic shift in sentiment. Commercial airlines enjoyed robust gains as fuel cost concerns receded. Delta advanced 3.8 per cent, United climbed 7.9 per cent, and Carnival surged 11.2 per cent. The Energy sector was the sole laggard, down 3.7 per cent due to a plunge in crude oil prices. Asian markets showed mixed reactions. Japan Nikkei 225 rose to 56,395 points on April 9, gaining 0.15 per cent. The index has rebounded roughly four per cent month-to-date after a brutal March selloff caused by energy supply fears. Hong Kong Hang Seng volatility remains high, with recent data showing the index struggling to hold gains above the 25,000 level.

Commodities reflected the dramatic geopolitical shift. Benchmark US oil WTI plummeted 16 per cent to approximately US$94.41 per barrel, a drop reminiscent of the depths of the pandemic. Spot gold climbed to roughly US$4,800 per ounce while silver prices fell slightly on April 9 to US$73.49, down 0.85 per cent from the previous day. Currency markets saw the US Dollar Index retreat to 98.6, down 1.17 per cent, as geopolitical risk premiums unwound. Fixed income markets remained relatively stable with the US 10-year Treasury yield holding steady at 4.30 per cent on April 9.

Looking ahead, the market’s near-term health hinges on Bitcoin stabilising above the critical US$2.39T support level, which represents the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement. A sustained break below this threshold could trigger a swift move toward US$2.34T at the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci level, particularly if ETF flows remain subdued. Conversely, a rebound above US$2.45T, the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci level, would signal that bullish control has been regained.

All my retail investor friends are eyeing April 16, when the SEC holds its roundtable on the CLARITY Act. They are hopeful that this regulatory development could provide the catalyst needed to shift sentiment and override the current technical weakness. The market finds itself in a corrective consolidation phase, where the flush of excess leverage and rotation out of altcoins represents a healthy reset rather than a fundamental breakdown.

For me, I think it’s “priced-in” already.

 
Source:
 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The CLARITY Act countdown: How April 16 could make or break the US$2.36T crypto rally

The CLARITY Act countdown: How April 16 could make or break the US$2.36T crypto rally

The crypto market advanced 2.06 per cent to reach a total capitalisation of US$2.36T over the last 24 hours, a move that reflects more than mere speculative impulse. The rally emerges against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical friction and shifting macroeconomic expectations, and it finds its primary fuel in a maturing regulatory framework that finally offers institutions a clearer path forward. The market’s 55 per cent correlation with Gold signals a strategic positioning as an inflation hedge, while moderate ties to major equity ETFs reveal an asset class navigating its identity between risk-on sentiment and store-of-value credibility. I see this moment not as a simple price pop but as a critical test of whether regulatory progress can translate into durable institutional adoption, even as external shocks threaten to derail momentum.

The cornerstone of this bullish sentiment remains the joint SEC and CFTC framework from March 2026, which explicitly classified 16 major digital assets, including BTC, ETH, and SOL, as digital commodities. This taxonomy, while not entirely new in concept, materially reduces the securities overhang that has long deterred traditional capital allocators. The market is pricing in a lower long-term regulatory risk premium, and we see this in the outperformance of the top-trending SEC/CFTC Digital Commodities narrative, which gained 2.8 per cent against the broader market’s 2.06 per cent rise. This is not about short-term hype but about structural clarity enabling strategic portfolio construction. The real watchpoint now shifts to Congress and the progress of the CLARITY Act, which would codify these rules into law, moving us from agency guidance to legislative certainty. Until that happens, the market will remain sensitive to political signals and enforcement nuances.

Two secondary catalysts amplified the recent move, blending fundamental supply dynamics with speculative energy. First, the Ethereum Foundation’s decision to stake US$93M worth of ETH transformed a potential overhang of sell-side pressure into a yield-generating position, subtly tightening immediate liquid supply. Second, derivatives markets flashed a surge in leveraged activity, with total open interest climbing 3.74 per cent to US$403.82B. This indicates traders are committing fresh capital to long positions, which can accelerate upward moves but also introduces fragility. A sharp reversal in funding rates or a spike in BTC liquidations could quickly unwind these gains. The rally, therefore, rests on a dual foundation of genuine supply reduction and speculative fuel, a combination that demands careful monitoring rather than blind optimism.

From a technical perspective, the market now approaches a decisive inflexion zone. The immediate resistance band sits between US$2.38T, representing the 30-day simple moving average, and US$2.41T, the Fibonacci 50 per cent retracement level. Holding above the US$2.33T support, which aligns with the Fibonacci 78.6 per cent level, proves essential for maintaining a bullish structure. A decisive break above US$2.41T could signal a broader trend reversal, while a failure to hold US$2.33T might trigger a pullback as traders reassess ahead of the SEC roundtable on the CLARITY Act scheduled for April 16, 2026. This event represents the next major catalyst, where any deviation from the March framework’s tone could swiftly alter sentiment. The market’s reaction to the US$2.38T level in the coming sessions will offer an early read on whether buyers possess the conviction to push through this supply zone.

This crypto market movement does not occur in isolation. Global markets opened with high volatility on Monday, April 6, 2026, as geopolitical tensions escalated following fresh threats from the United States toward Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 hovered around 6,582.69, showing mixed sentiment after a late-week rebound, while the Nasdaq Composite traded near 21,879.18, with tech stocks remaining sensitive to rising energy costs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average softened slightly to 46,504.67. Oil prices surged, with Brent crude rising to US$110.33/Bbl, up 1.19 per cent for the day, as threats against Iranian infrastructure heightened supply fears. These dynamics feed directly into inflation expectations, with markets pricing in a March CPI print of 3.4 per cent. Combined with resilient March payroll data showing an increase of 178K jobs, the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts has diminished significantly. The geopolitical risk premium has already contributed to a roughly six per cent decline in the S&P 500 from its peak as investors rotate toward safe-haven assets, a backdrop that makes crypto’s positive performance even more noteworthy.

Treasury yields saw some easing over the past week but remain elevated, with the 10-year US Treasury yielding approximately 4.35 per cent, creating a higher opportunity cost for non-yielding assets. Regionally, the Straits Times Index in Singapore recorded a 2.2 per cent decline in March, ending a ten-month gain streak, though defence and capital market sectors have shown resilience. In commodities, heating oil jumped 2.55 per cent to US$4.47/Gal on the day, tracking the broader energy rally. These cross-asset movements underscore the complex interplay between crypto and traditional markets. The moderate correlations with major equity ETFs suggest crypto is not fully decoupled, and its stronger link to Gold highlights a growing perception as a digital hard asset. This duality allows crypto to attract capital from both growth-oriented and preservation-minded portfolios, but it also means the asset class remains vulnerable to shifts in either risk sentiment or inflation expectations.

My view remains cautiously bullish, grounded in the confluence of regulatory tailwinds and Ethereum-specific supply dynamics, and tempered by elevated leverage and external macro risks. The market’s ability to sustain gains likely hinges on whether the positive narrative from March’s regulatory milestone can translate into sustained institutional flows ahead of the April 16 SEC roundtable. If the CLARITY Act discussion reinforces the commodity classification framework, we could see a decisive break above the US$2.41T resistance, opening a path toward higher valuations. Conversely, a hawkish shift or ambiguous messaging from regulators could trigger a retreat toward the US$2.33T support. The geopolitical landscape adds another layer of uncertainty, as any escalation in the Strait of Hormuz could spark a broader risk-off move that temporarily overshadows crypto’s regulatory progress.

Ultimately, this moment represents a maturation phase for digital assets. The market is no longer driven solely by retail speculation but by institutional calculus weighing regulatory clarity against macro headwinds. The foundation for a larger bull case exists, but it requires patience and discipline. The path forward will likely be volatile, and the direction appears increasingly shaped by policy rather than panic, a shift that long-term participants in this ecosystem have awaited for over a decade.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-clarity-act-countdown-how-april-16-could-make-or-break-the-us2-36t-crypto-rally-20260406/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Good Friday crypto analysis: Is low liquidity and volume setting up a crypto crash to US$2.17T?

Good Friday crypto analysis: Is low liquidity and volume setting up a crypto crash to US$2.17T?

The crypto market’s slight 0.96 per cent retreat to a total capitalisation of US$2.3T over the last 24 hours reflects a broader narrative. Digital assets are no longer operating in isolation. They move in lockstep with traditional finance, and the current macro-driven consolidation proves this integration. The 82 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 is not a coincidence. It signals that crypto now functions as a rates-sensitive risk asset, reacting to global monetary shifts rather than internal blockchain catalysts. This reality challenges the early promise of decentralisation as an independent financial layer and presents an opportunity for those who understand how to navigate the convergence of traditional markets and digital innovation.

Japan’s 2-year government bond yield, which climbed to a 31-year high of 1.385 per cent on April 3, 2026, triggered the latest pressure on risk assets. That move strengthened the dollar and sent ripples through equities and correlated instruments like crypto. I have long argued that monetary policy remains the dominant force shaping asset prices, and this episode reinforces that view. When global yields rise, capital rotates toward safety, and speculative assets face headwinds regardless of their technological merit. Crypto’s reaction here confirms its maturation into the global financial system, but it also highlights a vulnerability. The sector still lacks the insulation that true decentralisation could provide if regulatory frameworks embraced innovation rather than constraining it.

Altcoin weakness compounded the broader market dip. Bitcoin dominance holding at 58 per cent suggests capital remains parked in the flagship asset, and smaller tokens faced disproportionate selling. StakeStone’s STO token is crashing by over 55 per cent due to large holder movements and an imminent token unlock, illustrating how sector-specific stress can amplify in low-liquidity environments. Spot volume declining 5.51 per cent means every sell order carries more weight, dragging the total market cap lower with less resistance. I have seen this pattern repeat during past consolidation phases. When liquidity dries up, volatility increases, and projects with weak fundamentals or concentrated ownership structures suffer first. This dynamic underscores why I advocate for deeper liquidity pools and more distributed token ownership as essential components of resilient Web3 infrastructure.

The near-term technical picture offers a clear framework for what comes next. The market currently tests the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$2.33T, with a critical swing low at US$2.27T. A daily close below that level could open a path toward the yearly low of US$2.17T. The Fear and Greed Index, sitting at 28, labelled Fear, suggests participants feel cautious but not panicked. That sentiment aligns with a market awaiting direction rather than reacting to fresh catalysts. The SEC’s CLARITY Act roundtable on April 16 represents the next major inflexion point for regulatory sentiment. I have spent considerable time analysing how policy shapes crypto markets, and this event could provide the clarity that institutional participants need to commit capital with conviction. Until then, sideways movement between US$2.27T and US$2.33T appears the most probable path.

Broader market context adds nuance to this crypto-specific view. US equity markets closed on April 3, 2026, for Good Friday, meaning weekly performance reflected Thursday’s close. The S&P 500 ended the week up 3.4 per cent at 6,582.69, the Nasdaq Composite gained 4.4 per cent to finish at 21,879.18, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.0 per cent to 46,504.67. Those gains snapped a five-week losing streak, and crypto did not participate in the relief rally. This divergence warrants attention. It suggests that digital assets remain more sensitive to rate expectations than equity momentum, at least in the short term. Asian markets showed strength with Japan’s Nikkei 225 rising 1.28 per cent to 53,135 points and Hang Seng futures trending higher by roughly 0.6 per cent. The 10-year Treasury yield eased slightly to 4.31 per cent, indicating investors continue to weigh recession risks against surging energy costs.

Commodities added another layer of complexity. Brent crude settled near US$109 per barrel while WTI traded around US$111 as of late Thursday, keeping inflation expectations elevated. Gold saw renewed demand, particularly in Singapore, following a sharp earlier drop. Precious metals often serve as a barometer for risk sentiment, and their resurgence hints at underlying anxiety despite equity gains. Political developments further cloud the outlook.

The Trump administration’s authorisation of 100 per cent tariffs on certain imported patented medicines introduces new uncertainty into global trade and pharmaceutical supply chains. Geopolitical tensions around Iran and Oman, with reports of a potential protocol to monitor shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, offered a brief hope for de-escalation but left markets monitoring every headline. Corporate news like SpaceX targeting a valuation exceeding US$2T for a potential IPO captures imagination, and such mega-listings also concentrate capital attention away from smaller, innovative projects in both traditional and digital markets.

My perspective on this consolidation phase centres on three convictions.

  • First, crypto’s correlation with traditional markets is a transitional phase, not an endpoint. As decentralised infrastructure matures and regulatory frameworks evolve, digital assets can reclaim their role as independent stores of value and mediums of exchange.
  • Second, liquidity remains the lifeblood of healthy markets. The 5.51 per cent drop in spot volume demonstrates how fragile sentiment becomes when participation wanes. Projects that prioritise deep, resilient liquidity pools will weather volatility better than those reliant on speculative momentum.
  • Third, regulatory clarity cannot come soon enough. The SEC’s April 16 roundtable on the CLARITY Act represents a critical opportunity to establish rules that foster innovation while protecting participants.

Support at US$2.27T must hold to prevent a deeper retracement toward US$2.17T. A break above US$2.33T could signal renewed confidence, especially if accompanied by rising volume and positive regulatory signals. Until then, cautious consolidation appears to be the baseline scenario. I view this period not as a setback but as a necessary phase of digestion. Markets that advance too quickly without solid foundations often correct more severely later. The current pullback allows participants to reassess fundamentals, strengthen infrastructure, and prepare for the next leg of growth. Those who focus on building rather than speculating will emerge stronger when clarity arrives.

 

Source: https://e27.co/good-friday-crypto-analysis-is-low-liquidity-and-volume-setting-up-a-crypto-crash-to-us2-17t-20260403/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j