Tag Archives: cut

Anndy Lian: Nasdaq jumps 2.7 percent as rate cut bets surge

Anndy Lian: Nasdaq jumps 2.7 percent as rate cut bets surge

The Nasdaq saw a sharp rise of 2.7 percent, buoyed by growing expectations of impending rate cuts. This boost in the market indicates investor confidence following economic signals pointing towards potential monetary easing.

Anndy Lian noted that while tech stocks and cryptocurrencies are currently experiencing a rebound, underlying weaknesses in the crypto sector suggest that caution may still be warranted. The sentiment reflects ongoing challenges in maintaining stability amidst volatile market conditions.

 

 

The current optimism in equity and digital asset markets stands in contrast to persistent vulnerabilities, particularly in the crypto space. Recent upheavals, such as exchange disruptions and liquidity concerns highlighted during the period of frozen withdrawals and declining volumes at MEXC, underscore the need for ongoing vigilance. Additionally, shifting investor sentiment bears resemblance to the preference changes within the memecoin community that Anndy Lian previously analyzed, suggesting that underlying market dynamics remain in flux despite short-term rallies.

 

Source: https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/938355-nasdaq-jumps-rate-cut/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Nasdaq jumps 2.7 per cent on rate cut bets: What comes next for tech stocks and crypto

Nasdaq jumps 2.7 per cent on rate cut bets: What comes next for tech stocks and crypto

Global markets staged a modest but meaningful rebound this week, driven primarily by growing optimism that the US Federal Reserve may finally pivot toward interest rate cuts as early as its December meeting. Risk sentiment improved across asset classes, with equities leading the charge, especially in the technology sector, while bonds regained some lustre as yields declined. The US dollar held steady, gold remained flat, and crude oil prices edged higher amid evolving geopolitical narratives.

In parallel, the cryptocurrency market posted a 0.88 per cent gain over the past 24 hours, pulling back from a steep 3.81 per cent weekly loss. Though encouraging, this rebound remains tenuous, supported more by technical relief and macro speculation than by strong fundamental or institutional demand.

US equities surged on Monday, with the Nasdaq climbing 2.7 per cent, significantly outpacing the S&P 500’s 1.6 per cent gain and the Dow Jones’ modest 0.4 per cent rise. The performance underscores the tech-heavy market’s sensitivity to monetary policy expectations. The rally stems from signals that several Federal Reserve officials now lean dovish, raising the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December.

Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) explicitly reaffirmed this expectation, adding credibility to the narrative. For investors, the implication remains clear: maintain exposure to high-quality US equities while selectively rotating into non-US value and mid-cap stocks to capture alpha. This strategy acknowledges both the leadership of American tech and the potential for relative outperformance in undervalued international markets.

Bond markets reacted in lockstep with equity optimism. US Treasury yields slipped, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.035 percent and the 2-year yield at 3.503 percent. The widening spread between short- and long-dated yields suggests growing confidence in a soft landing scenario, where inflation eases without triggering recession.

For fixed income investors, this shift marks a critical inflection point. Bonds are regaining their role as a defensive asset class, and positioning ahead of the anticipated Fed easing cycle appears prudent. Accumulating high-quality sovereign and investment-grade corporate debt now could yield attractive real returns once policy rates begin their descent.

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar stabilised, holding its ground as global investors weighed divergent central bank trajectories. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen weakened further, sliding amid ongoing concerns about potential intervention by Japanese authorities if the USD/JPY pair approaches the psychologically critical 160 level.

Tokyo has already spent billions defending the yen this year, and market participants remain on high alert. This dynamic creates a unique risk-reward asymmetry in yen trades, where upside potential is capped by intervention fears, even as interest rate differentials continue to pressure the currency lower.

Commodity markets reflected a mix of geopolitical caution and macro caution. Brent crude ticked upward as traders assessed the implications of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, a development that could reduce risk premiums in an already well-supplied oil market.

Meanwhile, gold ended flat at US$2,135.90 per ounce, maintaining its role as a defensive hedge rather than a momentum-driven asset. Its price stability suggests that while investors are not rushing into safe havens, they are also not fully abandoning them. The metal’s resilience amid equity rallies signals persistent undercurrents of uncertainty, likely tied to lingering inflation concerns and geopolitical fragility.

In Asia, regional equities posted a partial recovery from last week’s selloff, though performance remained mixed. US futures pointed lower by Tuesday morning, hinting at potential profit-taking or renewed caution. In this environment, the recommended strategy focuses on technology exposure and dividend-paying equities, sectors that offer both growth potential and income stability in uncertain times.

The cryptocurrency market mirrored broader risk sentiment, rising 0.88 per cent in 24 hours after a sharp weekly decline. This move aligns closely with the Nasdaq-100, which crypto now correlates with at 0.91, a testament to its increasing integration into traditional risk frameworks. Three key factors drove this tentative rebound. First, the completion of SWIFT’s migration to the ISO 20022 messaging standard on November 22 reignited interest in blockchain-based payment networks that comply with this new global standard.

Ripple’s XRP surged 4.91 per cent over the week, and its spot trading volume jumped 68.87 per cent in 24 hours, reflecting renewed institutional curiosity. While real-world adoption remains gradual, the narrative around regulatory-grade interoperability offers a credible pathway for compliant digital assets to gain traction in cross-border finance.

Second, a short squeeze provided technical relief in crypto derivatives markets. Bitcoin’s funding rate plunged 192 per cent to negative 0.0024 per cent, indicating excessive bearish positioning. As the price dipped toward US$80,000, US$17.5 million in long positions were liquidated, often a sign of forced covering by shorts.

While this created a short-term bounce, the underlying market remains weak, as evidenced by Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) of just 25.1, deep in oversold territory but not yet signalling a confirmed reversal. For bulls, reclaiming the 200-day moving average near US$88,000 will be the critical technical hurdle to watch.

Third, macro speculation around Fed policy played a decisive role. Reports from the Wall Street Journal highlighted internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with some officials now openly supporting a December rate cut. This dovish tilt lifted all risk assets, including crypto. Notably, outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs slowed to US$1.2 billion for the week, down from US$1.94 billion the prior week, suggesting that institutional selling pressure may be easing, if only temporarily.

Despite these positive signals, the current rally remains fragile. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at just 15 out of 100, firmly in “Extreme Fear” territory, revealing deep scepticism among retail participants. Moreover, the US$1.2 billion in weekly ETF outflows confirms that institutional investors have not yet returned in force. Without renewed inflows or a clear catalyst, the market risks another leg lower, especially if upcoming economic data contradicts rate-cut hopes.

All eyes now turn to Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A hotter-than-expected print could swiftly dismantle the dovish narrative, reigniting volatility across equities, bonds, and crypto alike. Conversely, a benign reading would reinforce the case for December easing, potentially extending the current rebound.

To sum things up, the market’s recent gains stem from a confluence of technical oversold conditions, regulatory tailwinds from ISO 20022, and macro hopes centred on Fed policy. These drivers lack the depth and breadth needed for a sustained rally. Investors should view this bounce as an opportunity to reassess positioning rather than a definitive turn in trend. Whether Bitcoin can stabilise above US$87,000, or whether equities can maintain momentum without Fed confirmation, will determine whether optimism evolves into conviction or evaporates under the weight of reality.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/nasdaq-jumps-2-7-per-cent-on-rate-cut-bets-what-comes-next-for-tech-stocks-and-crypto-20251125/

 

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

December Fed cut countdown: The 25 basis point move that will reshape every asset class

December Fed cut countdown: The 25 basis point move that will reshape every asset class

Financial markets stand at a pivotal intersection where technical pressures, valuation concerns, and shifting monetary policy expectations converge to create both opportunity and risk. The S&P 500 index recently breached key moving averages, though the 200-day moving average remains a robust support level. This technical development suggests short-term volatility remains likely, yet it does not warrant abandoning core equity positions.

Instead, prudent risk management through strategic hedging becomes essential as markets digest mixed signals. Professional fund managers currently maintain exceptionally low cash levels, while exchange-traded funds drive the majority of market flows, creating a paradoxical environment of high liquidity and stretched positioning that could amplify any sudden market reversals.

The concentration of market leadership within the Magnificent Seven technology stocks has begun to show signs of fragmentation, with valuations now trading below 30 times earnings and performance dispersion widening significantly. This development marks a crucial transition point where passive indexing strategies may underperform active stock selection.

Investors must avoid crowded trades and instead focus on selective exposure to genuine outperformers within the technology sector. The recent relief rally across US equities on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 1.1 per cent, the S&P 500 gaining one per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.9 per cent, reflected improving risk sentiment driven by growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Market participants now price in a 62 per cent probability of a December rate cut, with UOB economists maintaining their expectation for a 25 basis point reduction at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Fed will enter its mandatory blackout period from November 29 to December 12, 2025, limiting official communication during this critical decision window.

Fixed income markets responded to these shifting expectations with Treasury yields edging downward, the 10-year note settling at 4.063 per cent, and the 2-year note at 3.507 per cent. This movement signals growing defensive positioning among institutional investors, supporting the strategic case for maintaining duration exposure in the four to five year range. The spread between equity and bond valuations has widened sufficiently to make quality fixed income increasingly attractive as a portfolio diversifier ahead of anticipated Fed easing.

Simultaneously, currency markets exhibited nuanced behaviour with the US dollar gaining strength for the week while the Japanese yen rose sharply on Friday following Japan’s strongest warning yet regarding recent currency weakness. This intervention risk near the 160 yen per dollar level requires close monitoring as currency volatility could spill over into broader market stability.

Commodity markets reflected geopolitical sensitivity with Brent crude oil dipping on prospects of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal, while gold maintained its position above the psychologically significant US$4,000 level. Gold’s resilience underscores its continued role as a defensive hedge against market uncertainty, while oil prices remain acutely sensitive to geopolitical developments that could disrupt supply chains.

Asian equity markets declined on Friday as concerns over stretched artificial intelligence valuations weighed on investor sentiment, though US futures pointed higher at the start of the new week. Within regional allocations, technology exposure combined with dividend-paying stocks appears preferable for maintaining Asian market participation while managing valuation risks.

The cryptocurrency market experienced a modest 1.36 per cent gain over the last 24 hours, rebounding from extreme fear sentiment and oversold technical conditions. However, this recovery appears fragile when viewed against a 6.62 per cent weekly decline and a substantial 19.44 per cent monthly drop. The Relative Strength Index reached an extremely oversold reading of 18.98 before the recent bounce, suggesting technical exhaustion rather than fundamental conviction.

Regulatory developments provided temporary support as Grayscale’s Dogecoin and XRP exchange-traded funds received approval for NYSE Arca listing, scheduled to begin trading on November 24. These approvals, alongside Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF launch and BlackRock’s staked Ethereum ETF filing, signal institutional demand and regulatory progress that temporarily offset broader market anxiety. XRP and Dogecoin outperformed Bitcoin during this period, with XRP gaining 1.58 per cent compared to Bitcoin’s 1.36 per cent rise, though early trading volumes for the new ETF products will determine whether this optimism sustains.

Binance continued to demonstrate ecosystem strength, maintaining its position as the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchange with over US$2 trillion in monthly trading volume, representing 41.1 per cent of global crypto trades. BNB token rose 1.35 per cent, supported by ecosystem updates including the CMC20 index token launch on BNB Chain. While Binance’s liquidity depth provides price stability benefits, derivatives trading volume fell 52 per cent over 24 hours, indicating cautious leverage usage among sophisticated traders. This mixed signal highlights the market’s transitional nature, where retail enthusiasm meets institutional caution.

From a global asset allocation perspective, US equities appear relatively expensive compared to international value-oriented strategies that have begun showing strong relative performance. This valuation disparity creates a compelling case for strategic diversification beyond US borders while maintaining exposure to high-quality American companies.

Selective non-US value investments and mid-cap strategies offer opportunities to generate alpha as market leadership broadens beyond the narrow technology concentration that dominated recent years. The combination of reasonable valuations in international markets and attractive entry points in quality fixed income creates a unique opportunity for portfolio rebalancing.

My perspective on this market juncture emphasises cautious optimism tempered by rigorous risk management. The technical breakdown in major indices, combined with stretched positioning metrics, suggests near-term volatility will persist, yet the fundamental case for equities remains intact, given anticipated monetary policy easing.

The widening dispersion within technology stocks represents not a warning sign but rather a healthy maturation of the market cycle where stock selection matters more than sector allocation. The approval of cryptocurrency ETFs marks genuine institutional acceptance, though the asset class remains highly speculative and should represent only a small portfolio allocation for most investors.

The most critical factor for investors remains maintaining discipline amid conflicting signals. The 200-day moving average’s resilience as support for the S&P 500 provides a valuable technical anchor, while the 62 per cent probability of December rate cuts offers fundamental justification for maintaining equity exposure.

However, the extremely low cash levels among professional managers and the dominance of ETF flows create vulnerability to sharp reversals that could test even the strongest support levels. Bond markets offer increasingly attractive risk-reward characteristics as yields remain elevated relative to expected inflation and growth trajectories.

Geopolitical risks continue to influence commodity markets disproportionately, with oil prices sensitive to peace negotiations while gold maintains its safe-haven appeal. Currency markets require particular attention as central bank policies diverge, with the yen’s intervention risk near 160 representing a potential flashpoint for global volatility. Asian markets face the dual challenge of high technology valuations and economic growth concerns, making selective exposure to dividend-paying stocks and established technology leaders more prudent than broad regional bets.

The cryptocurrency market’s fragile recovery underscores the importance of distinguishing between regulatory progress and fundamental value. While ETF approvals represent significant milestones, the 19.44 per cent monthly decline and extremely oversold technical conditions suggest caution remains warranted. Binance’s ecosystem strength provides stability, but the 52 per cent drop in derivatives volume reveals underlying caution that contradicts surface-level price gains.

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s December meeting will likely serve as the next major catalyst, with markets already pricing in significant easing. This expectation creates both opportunity and risk, as any deviation from anticipated policy could trigger substantial volatility.

Investors should focus on quality across all asset classes, maintaining core equity exposure while strategically adding high-grade fixed income as yields remain attractive. International diversification offers valuable valuation benefits, particularly in value-oriented strategies that have underperformed during the recent technology-driven rally.

The crossroads markets face today require neither panic nor complacency, but rather thoughtful adaptation to changing conditions. Technical support levels, valuation disparities, and monetary policy expectations all point to a transitional period in which active management and risk-aware positioning will outperform passive approaches.

By maintaining core exposures while hedging downside risks, selectively participating in institutional adoption trends like cryptocurrency ETFs, and diversifying globally toward more attractive valuations, investors can navigate this complex environment while positioning for long-term success. The path forward demands patience and discipline, recognising that market leadership transitions rarely occur smoothly but ultimately create stronger, more sustainable growth foundations.

 

Source: https://e27.co/december-fed-cut-countdown-the-25-basis-point-move-that-will-reshape-every-asset-class-20251124/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j