July 1st, 2025

Trade talks, Bitcoin surges and market moves: Navigating the July 9 deadline

With the 9th July deadline looming, trade policy remains a pivotal concern, influencing investor behaviour and market movements across stocks, treasuries, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. The interplay of these factors paints a picture of cautious optimism tempered by persistent uncertainties, and it’s worth exploring each facet in depth to understand the broader implications.

Global risk sentiment and trade policy dynamics

Global risk sentiment has shown signs of improvement in recent days, driven mainly by developments in evolving trade policies. On Sunday, 29 June, Canada made a significant move by withdrawing its digital services tax on technology companies, a decision aimed at restarting trade negotiations with the United States. This step suggests a willingness to de-escalate tensions and foster a more collaborative economic relationship, which investors have interpreted as a positive signal.

Similarly, reports indicate that the European Union is prepared to accept President Donald Trump’s proposed 10 per cent universal tariff on many of its exports, though it is pushing for lower rates on key sectors. This flexibility hints at a pragmatic approach to avoid a full-blown trade war, further bolstering market confidence.

Not all trade-related news is conciliatory. In a recent Fox News interview, President Trump suggested maintaining 25 per cent tariffs on Japanese cars as negotiations between the US and Japan continue. This stance introduces a layer of uncertainty, signalling that some trade disputes remain unresolved and could potentially escalate.

With the 9th July deadline approaching, likely tied to a critical juncture in these trade talks, the global financial community is watching closely. The mixed signals from these developments suggest that while there’s room for optimism, the path forward is far from clear, and the risk of renewed tensions lingers.

Stock markets reflect cautious optimism

The US stock markets have responded to these trade policy shifts with gains, reflecting a degree of investor confidence. The S&P 500 rose by 0.52 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.63 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.47 per cent.

These advances indicate that investors are encouraged by the prospect of easing trade frictions, particularly between the US, Canada, and the EU. The anticipation of smoother trade relations could enhance corporate earnings and economic stability, driving equity prices higher.

Yet, this optimism isn’t uniform across all regions. In Asia, equity indices displayed mixed performances during early trading sessions, suggesting that investors there are adopting a more wait-and-see approach. This regional divergence might stem from uncertainties about how US-centric trade policies will ripple through global supply chains, particularly with Japan’s tariff situation unresolved.

Meanwhile, US equity index futures point to a higher opening for American stocks, reinforcing the notion that domestic markets, at least, are leaning toward a bullish outlook in the short term.

Treasury yields and the US dollar signal underlying concerns

While stocks trend upward, the bond market tells a more nuanced story. US Treasury yields eased across the curve, with the 10-year yield dropping 4.9 basis points to 4.228 per cent and the two-year yield falling 2.9 basis points to 3.719 per cent. Typically, declining yields suggest a flight to safety, as investors seek the relative security of government bonds amid uncertainty.

In this context, the yield drop might also reflect anticipation of the upcoming US June jobs report, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. A weaker-than-expected report might fuel expectations of rate cuts, pushing yields down further.

The US Dollar Index adds another layer of complexity, having weakened by 0.54 per cent in a single session and suffering a staggering 10.8 per cent decline since the start of 2025, its worst first-half loss since 1973. This dramatic depreciation could be attributed to several factors, including the shifting trade landscape, economic data signalling a slowdown, or central bank policies diverging from those of other major economies.

A weaker dollar often boosts the appeal of US exports, aligning with the dynamics of trade negotiations, but it also raises questions about the greenback’s long-term strength and its implications for global markets.

Commodities: Gold shines, oil holds steady

In the commodities sphere, gold has emerged as a standout performer, rising 0.88 per cent to US$3,303 per ounce. This uptick underscores its role as a safe-haven asset, appealing to investors wary of economic instability or inflationary pressures.

The trade policy uncertainties, coupled with the dollar’s decline, likely contribute to gold’s allure, as it often thrives when traditional currencies falter. Conversely, Brent crude oil edged down by 0.09 per cent to US$68 per barrel, a marginal shift that suggests stable demand expectations despite the evolving trade environment. Oil’s muted response might indicate that markets don’t yet foresee significant disruptions to global energy flows from these trade talks.

The cryptocurrency surge: Bitcoin takes centre stage

Perhaps the most intriguing development lies in the cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin is experiencing a notable resurgence. Its price climbed 0.54 per cent to US$107,937, spurred by comments from President Trump urging Republicans not to fret over deficit spending.

Analyst Will Clemente argues that such a stance reinforces the bullish case for Bitcoin and gold, as expansive fiscal policies could stoke inflation, driving investors toward alternative stores of value. This view gained traction as a Trump family-associated cryptocurrency venture raised US$220 million for Bitcoin mining, signalling high-profile endorsement and investment in the digital asset space.

Beyond the headlines, Bitcoin’s dominance is growing. Its share of the total cryptoasset market value has surged to 64 per cent in 2025, the highest since January 2021, according to CoinMarketCap. This rise contrasts sharply with the fate of altcoins, digital assets beyond Bitcoin and stablecoins, which have seen over US$300 billion in market value erased this year.

This divergence suggests a flight to quality within the cryptocurrency ecosystem, with investors favouring Bitcoin’s established reputation over riskier, less proven alternatives.

London’s Bitcoin boom: A corporate shift

The cryptocurrency trend extends beyond individual investors to corporate boardrooms, particularly in London. At least nine London-listed companies, ranging from web design firms to gold miners, have recently announced plans to buy Bitcoin or have already done so, aiming to boost their share prices.

This strategy echoes the success of Japan’s Metaplanet, Germany’s Bitcoin Group, and US-based MicroStrategy, whose valuation skyrocketed nearly 400 per cent since adopting a Bitcoin-centric approach in August 2020.

For London’s equity market, which has historically been light on digital asset exposure and constrained by regulatory limits on crypto-linked products, this marks a significant shift in sentiment. Companies are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a treasury asset, a hedge against inflation, and a means to attract investor interest.

Synthesising the big picture

Stepping back, the current global risk sentiment is a tapestry of interwoven threads, improving trade relations, persistent uncertainties, and innovative financial strategies. Canada’s tax withdrawal and the EU’s tariff flexibility have injected optimism into markets, evident in US stock gains and futures pointing to further upside.

Yet, Trump’s hardline stance on Japanese tariffs, falling Treasury yields, and the dollar’s historic weakness suggest that not all risks have dissipated. Investors are hedging their bets, flocking to gold and Bitcoin while keeping an eye on economic indicators like the upcoming jobs report.

The cryptocurrency narrative adds a forward-looking dimension. Bitcoin’s ascent, fuelled by corporate adoption, political rhetoric, and market dynamics, positions it as a potential mainstay in the financial landscape. London’s embrace of this trend, alongside the Trump family’s crypto ventures, underscores a broader acceptance of digital assets, even as altcoins falter. This selective enthusiasm highlights a discerning market that prioritises stability amid volatility.

My point of view

In my view, we’re witnessing a pivotal moment where traditional and emerging markets are converging under the weight of shifting trade policies and economic uncertainty. The improvement in global risk sentiment is real but fragile, hinging on the outcomes of negotiations by the 9th July deadline.

Stock market gains reflect hope, but the bond and currency markets reveal a cautious undercurrent that shouldn’t be ignored. Gold’s rise and Bitcoin’s dominance signal a search for resilience in an unpredictable world, whether against inflation, currency devaluation, or geopolitical friction.

For investors, this environment demands a balanced approach: capitalising on equity opportunities while diversifying into safe havens, such as gold and Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency surge, particularly among London-based firms, suggests that digital assets are no longer a fringe consideration but a strategic one for mainstream finance.

The altcoin collapse serves as a reminder that not all innovations endure. As trade talks progress and economic data unfold, flexibility and vigilance will be key. The global market is in flux, but within that flux lies opportunity for those who navigate it wisely.

Source: https://e27.co/trade-talks-bitcoin-surges-and-market-moves-navigating-the-july-9-deadline-20250701/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

June 3rd, 2025

US-China trade deadline: Markets brace for impact

The Trump administration has issued a directive for countries to submit their best offers on trade negotiations by June 4, 2025, signalling an intent to expedite discussions with multiple trade partners. This deadline introduces a pivotal moment that could either pave the way for resolution or escalate existing frictions, further influencing market behaviour.

At the heart of this economic narrative lies the ongoing US-China trade dispute, a saga that has seen periodic escalations and temporary reprieves over recent years. The latest chapter involves heightened rhetoric and the looming deadline set by US officials, which has rekindled fears of tariff impositions or retaliatory measures.

The Trump administration’s push to accelerate trade talks is a strategic move aimed at securing favourable terms swiftly, but it also amplifies the stakes. Investors are left to ponder whether this pressure will yield constructive agreements or deepen the divide, particularly with China, whose economic policies and responses remain critical variables in the global equation.

The uncertainty is palpable, as markets historically react sharply to any whiff of trade war escalation, given the interconnectedness of global supply chains and trade flows.

Simultaneously, the US factory sector has delivered a sobering reality check. Recent data revealed weaker-than-expected performance, with manufacturing activity faltering amid softening demand and supply chain pressures. This downturn is significant because the manufacturing sector serves as a bellwether for broader economic health in the United States, the world’s largest economy.

The disappointing figures have fuelled concerns that the US might be losing momentum at a time when global growth is already under scrutiny. This development not only contributes to the subdued risk sentiment but also raises questions about the Federal Reserve’s next moves, as policymakers weigh the balance between supporting growth and managing inflationary pressures.

Speaking of the Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, a voting member of the 2025 Federal Open Market Committee, has offered a measured perspective on the situation. He suggested that the Fed could proceed with interest rate cuts if the uncertainty surrounding trade policy dissipates, a statement that hints at a readiness to ease monetary conditions under the right circumstances.

Goolsbee also remarked that recent economic data has shown “surprisingly little impact so far” from the trade tensions, implying that the US economy has, to some extent, weathered the storm thus far. This cautiously optimistic tone contrasts with the market’s unease, highlighting a disconnect between official assessments and investor sentiment that often characterises periods of transition.

Despite the overarching caution, US stock markets managed to defy gravity on Monday, closing the session in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up by 0.08 per cent, the S&P 500 climbed 0.41 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.67 per cent. This resilience is noteworthy, especially as the CBOE Volatility Index, commonly known as the “fear index,” eased to 18.36 from 18.57.

While still above its long-term average, the VIX’s decline suggests a slight tempering of immediate market anxiety. However, this uptick in equities stands in contrast to broader global trends, as Asian equity indices closed mostly lower and continued to slide into the next day, while US equity futures signalled a weaker opening ahead. This divergence underscores the uneven impact of risk sentiment across regions and asset classes.

The bond market, meanwhile, painted a different picture. US Treasury yields rose across the maturity spectrum, with the 30-year yield briefly touching the psychologically significant five per cent mark. The 10-year yield increased by 4.0 basis points to settle at 4.440 per cent, and the two year yield rose by 3.9 basis points to 3.937 per cent.

This upward movement in yields reflects a shift in investor expectations, potentially driven by concerns over inflation or anticipation of tighter monetary policy down the road. Higher yields typically indicate that bond investors are demanding greater compensation for holding government debt, a sign that confidence in the economic outlook might be wavering or that inflationary pressures are creeping into the calculus.

In the currency markets, the US Dollar Index experienced a notable decline, dropping 0.63 per cent to its lowest close since April 21, 2025. This weakening of the dollar is a critical development, as it influences everything from trade competitiveness to commodity pricing. The dollar’s slide could be attributed to the confluence of trade uncertainties and shifting monetary policy expectations, which have diminished its appeal as a safe-haven currency in this instance.

Conversely, gold seized the opportunity to shine, rebounding by a robust 2.8 per cent. This surge aligns with gold’s traditional role as a refuge during times of geopolitical tension and currency depreciation, reinforcing its status as a barometer of investor unease.

Commodities offered additional insights into the market’s mood. Brent crude oil prices climbed 2.9 per cent to US$65 per barrel, a move that defies the OPEC+ decision to unwind an additional 411,000 barrels per day of output cuts in July.

This rise suggests that factors beyond supply adjustments—such as demand expectations, geopolitical risks, or currency effects—are driving oil prices higher. The resilience of oil in the face of increased production highlights the complexity of the current environment, where traditional supply-demand dynamics are overlaid with broader macroeconomic currents.

The cryptocurrency market, often a wild card in financial narratives, also made headlines. Bitcoin, after a meteoric 50 per cent surge over the past 45 days that propelled it to a record peak of US$111,880, shed nearly eight per cent in a sharp correction. This pullback, the first significant retreat since its April lows of US$74,501, follows a period of remarkably steady gains, as noted in the latest Bitfinex Alpha report.

Analysts have flagged potential turbulence in Bitcoin derivatives markets, where options open interest recently hit a staggering US$49.4 billion before retreating to US$39 billion post-May expiry. This peak, coupled with a spike in perpetual futures open interest near all-time highs, points to heightened speculative activity and a subsequent flushing out of leverage. Such dynamics suggest that Bitcoin traders are girding for volatility, a not-uncommon scenario for an asset known for its dramatic price swings.

Amid this turbulence, Strategy (MSTR), a firm with a well-documented Bitcoin strategy, doubled down on its commitment. The company acquired an additional 705 BTC for US$75 million, boosting its total holdings to 580,955 BTC at an average purchase price of US$70,023 per Bitcoin.

This latest purchase, executed at US$106,495 per BTC, was financed through at-the-market equity offerings via its perpetual preferred share classes STRK and STRF. Strategy’s unwavering accumulation reflects a belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value, even as short-term price fluctuations test the market’s resolve.

In a contrasting corporate narrative, Meta shareholders overwhelmingly rejected a proposal to consider Bitcoin as a treasury asset, with 95 per cent voting against it and less than one per cent in favour, per a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. This decisive rebuff underscores a preference for traditional financial strategies over speculative ventures into cryptocurrency.

Yet, Meta’s stock surged 3.6 per cent on news of its plan to deploy a fully AI-driven advertising engine by 2026, signaling that investors are far more enthusiastic about the company’s technological ambitions than its potential dalliance with Bitcoin.

In my view, the subdued global risk sentiment is a rational response to the twin pressures of US-China trade tensions and faltering US factory performance. The Trump administration’s June 4 deadline injects urgency into an already fraught situation, creating a high-stakes environment where outcomes remain uncertain.

A successful resolution could bolster confidence, but any misstep risks deepening economic fissures, particularly given China’s pivotal role in global trade. The manufacturing data, meanwhile, serves as a warning sign that the US economy may not be as robust as hoped, amplifying calls for policy intervention.

The Federal Reserve’s stance, as articulated by Goolsbee, strikes me as pragmatic yet cautious. The prospect of rate cuts contingent on trade clarity is a sensible approach, but the uptick in Treasury yields suggests that markets are already factoring in inflationary risks or a potential hawkish pivot. This tension between Fed rhetoric and market pricing could foreshadow challenges ahead, especially if economic indicators continue to soften.

Market reactions are a mixed bag. The resilience of US stocks is encouraging, but the broader global picture—evident in weaker Asian markets and US futures—hints at pervasive caution. The dollar’s decline and gold’s rally signal a flight to safety, while oil’s strength amid OPEC+ adjustments points to underlying demand or risk premiums at play.

In the crypto realm, Bitcoin’s correction feels like a natural pause after an extraordinary run, though Strategy’s steadfast accumulation contrasts sharply with Meta’s shareholder conservatism, illustrating divergent views on digital assets.

Ultimately, we’re in a period of flux where vigilance is paramount. Trade talks, economic data, and Fed decisions will steer the course, and while opportunities exist, the risks are equally pronounced. Investors would do well to stay informed and agile as this story unfolds.

Source: https://e27.co/us-china-trade-deadline-markets-brace-for-impact-20250603/