Tag Archives: decision

Bitcoin’s US$70K rejection was no accident: What the charts say about tonight’s Iran decision

Bitcoin’s US$70K rejection was no accident: What the charts say about tonight’s Iran decision

Investors across asset classes find themselves holding their breath as they await a critical 8:00 p.m. ET deadline set by the United States regarding the ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical flashpoint casts a long shadow over trading sessions, creating an environment where relief rallies in digital assets clash with the looming threat of military escalation. The market mood remains fragile, with traders balancing the hope for a diplomatic resolution against the very real possibility of a devastating strike on Iranian infrastructure that could reshape global energy supplies and risk appetite for months to come.

In the cryptocurrency sector, the narrative centres on a failed attempt to sustain momentum. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the psychologically significant US$70,000 level on Monday, fuelled by a wave of short liquidations totalling over US$145 million as bearish traders scrambled to exit their positions. That optimism proved short-lived. By Tuesday morning, the leading digital asset had retreated to approximately US$68,765, marking a 0.7 per cent decline as sellers stepped in to test support levels following the rejection at the US$70,000 mark. This pullback occurs despite a glimmer of institutional confidence, evidenced by US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recording roughly US$22.3 million in net inflows last week. These inflows suggest that while short-term traders remain skittish, larger institutional players are beginning to stabilise their positions and view current levels as an accumulation opportunity.

The technical picture for Bitcoin remains mixed, offering both hope and caution. Indicators such as the Weekly MACD are hinting at a potential bullish cross, a signal that has historically preceded significant upward moves in previous cycles. Immediate overhead resistance remains formidable, sitting firmly between US$73,777 and US$75,000. Breaking through this zone will require substantial buying pressure that the market currently lacks due to the overarching fear of geopolitical instability. This anxiety is quantified in the Fear and Greed Index, which sits at 26, firmly in the Extreme Fear territory. This low sentiment score reflects deep uncertainty regarding how a potential conflict in the Middle East might impact global liquidity and the risk-on nature of crypto assets. Furthermore, the regulatory landscape adds another layer of complexity, with a newly passed provision in the US Senate now mandating that crypto firms collect more user information to combat terrorism financing. This move introduces a long-term compliance burden that could dampen enthusiasm among privacy-focused investors.

While Bitcoin struggles to hold its ground, the broader altcoin market displays a surprising degree of resilience and divergence. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, trades near US$2,126, showing a marginal 0.2 per cent decline as it consolidates within the US$2,100 range. This stability suggests that traders are waiting for a clearer directional signal from Bitcoin before committing capital to the ecosystem. In contrast, other major assets are posting notable gains. XRP has surged 3.8 per cent to reach US$1.34, rebounding strongly from what technical analysts identify as a critical Fibonacci support floor. Similarly, Solana is outperforming the market leaders, posting a 3.1 per cent gain and pushing its price to US$82.09. This recovery for Solana marks a potential turning point after a multi-month bearish trend, indicating that capital may be rotating into high-performance layer-one blockchains that offer faster transaction speeds and lower costs during times of network congestion.

The traditional equity markets tell a different story, one of stubborn optimism in the face of rising energy costs. Major US indices extended their winning streaks, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.44 per cent to 6,611.83. This marks the index’s fourth consecutive session of gains, demonstrating a remarkable ability to look past immediate geopolitical threats. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the charge with a 0.54 per cent increase to 21,996.34, driven by robust gains in the tech sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also participated in the rally, adding 0.36 per cent to close at 46,669.88, reflecting moderate but steady gains across industrial and blue-chip stocks. This resilience in equities stands in stark contrast to the nervousness in the crypto market, suggesting that traditional investors may be pricing in a resolution to the Hormuz crisis or are simply too entrenched in the current momentum to exit positions prematurely.

Global markets are also showing signs of recovery, with Asian indices posting strong performances. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rebounded significantly, gaining 2.00 per cent to 25,294.00, a move attributed to easing fears over regional stability. Similarly, India’s Nifty 50 index climbed 1.12 per cent to 22,968.25, finding strong support near the 23,000 level. These gains in Asian markets provide a supportive backdrop for US trading, although the underlying tension regarding energy supplies remains a potent risk factor. The energy sector itself presents a paradox for investors. Crude oil prices have surged to alarming levels, with Brent crude hovering near US$110 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate reaching US$113 per barrel. Traders are actively pricing in what some analysts describe as the worst oil crisis in history, fearing that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would choke off a significant portion of the world’s seaborne oil trade.

Despite the surge in oil prices and geopolitical tension, gold has failed to act as a reliable safe haven in this specific conflict. The precious metal has fallen approximately 12 per cent since the conflict began in late February and currently trades near US$4,660 per ounce. This decline is largely driven by rising yields and a strengthening US dollar, which reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. The US 10-Year Treasury yield held steady at 4.34 per cent, with bond traders largely expecting the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates through the end of the year to combat the inflationary pressures stemming from the energy shock.

Investors are clearly worried that sustained high energy prices will feed into broader inflation, eroding consumer purchasing power and hurting the growth prospects of retail and leisure companies. The market remains in a state of suspended animation. A failure to reach a deal could trigger the feared Power Plant Day strike, likely causing a wave of panic selling across crypto and equities as investors flee to safety. A diplomatic breakthrough could unleash the pent-up buying pressure visible in the technical indicators, potentially sending Bitcoin back toward its resistance levels and fueling the next leg of the equity rally. Until then, volatility remains the only certainty.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoins-us70k-rejection-was-no-accident-what-the-charts-say-about-tonights-iran-decision-20260407/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Fed decision looms: Crypto cracks under US$3.07T as ETFs bleed US$3.47B in one month

Fed decision looms: Crypto cracks under US$3.07T as ETFs bleed US$3.47B in one month

The crypto market’s recent pullback reflects a confluence of macro headwinds, institutional caution, and technical fragility, all unfolding against the tense anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision. While the 0.87 per cent drop over the past 24 hours appears modest on the surface, it contributes to a deeper 30-day decline of 10.72 per cent, signalling a sustained period of risk aversion rather than a fleeting correction.

This deterioration stems primarily from three interlocking dynamics: large-scale institutional selling, recalibrated monetary policy expectations, and a technical breakdown that has eroded market confidence. Each of these forces not only weighs on short-term price action but also reshapes the strategic calculus for both institutional allocators and retail participants navigating this transitional phase.

Institutional behaviour has shifted decisively bearish in recent weeks. Galaxy Digital, a bellwether firm led by Mike Novogratz, has been at the centre of this trend, transferring 900 BTC valued at approximately US$81.6 million to a newly created wallet, likely linked to an exchange. This transaction aligns with a broader pattern of distribution, including a reported sale of 2,800 BTC worth roughly US$250 million as Bitcoin traded below US$90,000 in mid-November. Such moves signal that major players are taking profits or hedging against further downside, removing a key pillar of support that had previously underpinned the market during rallies.

The outflows extend beyond on-chain movements into regulated financial products. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, once the poster child of institutional adoption, has experienced record redemptions, shedding US$2.3 billion in November alone. Cumulative outflows across US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached US$3.47 billion for the month, dragging total Bitcoin ETF assets under management down to US$122.92 billion, an 11.5 per cent decline from October levels. This withdrawal of institutional capital directly weakens demand at a time when macro uncertainty demands liquidity and flexibility.

Compounding this selling pressure, expectations for Federal Reserve easing have significantly cooled. Markets now price in just 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2026, a notable retreat from the 100 basis points anticipated a month prior. This repricing reflects a more hawkish stance from Fed officials and resilient US economic data, which together have dampened hopes for a dovish pivot in the near term. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that while a 25 basis point cut in the December FOMC meeting remains probable, the path forward appears less certain and more data-dependent than previously assumed.

This tightening of financial conditions translates directly into lower risk appetite across all asset classes, with speculative assets like cryptocurrencies feeling the heat first and most acutely. A critical counterbalance has emerged from the regulatory front. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission launched a landmark pilot program on December 8, 2025, that officially permits Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC to be used as margin collateral in US derivatives markets.

This development is a major structural win for the industry, as it formally integrates digital assets into the core plumbing of traditional finance. While this news provides a long-term tailwind by enhancing capital efficiency and institutional utility, its immediate impact is muted against the overwhelming force of macro caution and profit-taking.

From a technical perspective, the market structure has also deteriorated. The total crypto market capitalisation, now hovering around US$3.07 trillion, has traded below both its 7-day and 30-day simple moving averages of US$3.09 trillion and US$3.12 trillion, respectively. This breakdown below key trendlines confirms the shift from a bullish to a bearish short-term bias. Furthermore, the composition of the market reveals a flight to relative safety within the crypto ecosystem itself. Bitcoin dominance has climbed to 58.56 per cent, its highest level in recent months, while altcoin dominance has collapsed to 29.25 per cent, a 12-month low.

The rotation suggests that even among those holding crypto, capital is consolidating into Bitcoin as the primary store of value, abandoning more speculative altcoins. This dynamic is particularly concerning because a healthy bull market typically requires broad-based participation across the asset class, not just strength in the flagship asset. The current setup leaves the market vulnerable to a deeper liquidation cascade if Bitcoin fails to hold critical support levels, such as the US$89,500 mark, which has become a key psychological and technical floor.

The broader macro environment provides additional context. US equities retreated ahead of the Fed decision, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posting losses, while Treasury yields continued their upward march, with the 10-year yield breaching 4.16 per cent. In a curious but strategically significant development, former President Donald Trump granted Nvidia permission to export its advanced H200 AI chips to China, contingent on a 25 per cent surcharge paid to the US government.

Looking at this move, while seemingly isolated to the semiconductor sector, injects a complex geopolitical variable into the market, highlighting the ongoing tension between technological decoupling and commercial pragmatism. For the crypto market, which is highly correlated with tech stocks and risk sentiment, any development that introduces new uncertainty or shifts the global liquidity outlook is a material factor.

In conclusion, the crypto market finds itself at a critical juncture, caught between the immediate pressures of institutional de-risking and a less accommodative monetary policy outlook, and the long-term promise of deeper institutional integration through initiatives like the CFTC’s collateral pilot. The current consolidation is not merely a price correction but a fundamental reassessment of the drivers of value in a new macro regime.

The path forward hinges almost entirely on the Federal Reserve’s communication in its upcoming announcement. A dovish tilt could spark a powerful relief rally, drawing capital back from the sidelines and potentially pushing the total market cap toward the US$3.25 trillion range.

A hawkish surprise or a higher for longer message would likely accelerate the current downtrend, testing major Fibonacci support levels around US$2.89 trillion. Until that clarity emerges, the market will remain in a state of cautious limbo, with Bitcoin’s ability to defend its key support levels serving as the primary indicator of whether this is a pause in a larger bull run or the beginning of a more protracted bear phase.

Source: https://e27.co/fed-decision-looms-crypto-cracks-under-us3-07t-as-etfs-bleed-us3-47b-in-one-month-20251209/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The great divergence: How US inflation, jobless claims, and crypto charts are clashing ahead of the Fed’s big decision

The great divergence: How US inflation, jobless claims, and crypto charts are clashing ahead of the Fed’s big decision

As the calendar flips to September 12, 2025, financial markets around the world hum with a mix of optimism and caution, driven by recent economic data that has solidified expectations for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy moves.

Global risk sentiment remains broadly positive, with Asian equities edging close to all-time highs in early trading sessions, buoyed by encouraging signals from US inflation figures and labour market indicators. Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets have taken the lead in this upward push, reflecting renewed investor confidence amid hopes for monetary easing.

Meanwhile, US stock futures point to a flat opening, suggesting a pause after the previous day’s gains, where the S&P 500 climbed 0.9 per cent, the Nasdaq advanced 0.7 per cent, and the Dow Jones surged 1.4 per cent. This rally in US equities stems largely from growing anticipation that the Fed will deliver an interest rate cut at its September 17 meeting. This move could inject fresh liquidity into risk assets and extend the current uptrend.

Looking into the latest US economic releases, the August consumer price index revealed a nuanced picture of inflation dynamics. Core prices, which strip out volatile food and energy components, increased by 0.3 per cent monthly and 3.1 per cent year-over-year, aligning closely with economist projections and signalling that underlying inflationary pressures remain contained but persistent.

Headline CPI ticked up by 0.4 per cent in August, marking an acceleration from prior months and pushing the annual rate to 2.9 per cent, the highest since early 2025. This uptick can be attributed in part to businesses preemptively passing on costs related to anticipated tariffs under the Trump administration’s trade policies, which have begun to ripple through supply chains and consumer goods pricing.

Concurrently, weekly jobless claims surged to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years and exceeding market forecasts, highlighting emerging softness in the labor market. This jump in unemployment filings, combined with a slight rise in the jobless rate to 4.2 per cent in August, underscores a weakening employment landscape that has pulled the Fed in conflicting directions: persistent inflation argues for caution, while labor market fragility demands stimulus.

Despite these tensions, the data has cemented bets on a rate reduction, with markets pricing in a 100 per cent chance of at least a 25 basis point cut next week, and roughly 50 per cent odds of a more aggressive 50 basis point move.

Bond markets have reacted accordingly, with US Treasuries posting gains overnight. The 10-year yield dipped 2.5 basis points to 4.02 per cent, while the 2-year yield edged down 0.2 basis points to 3.54 per cent, reflecting investor flight to safety amid the mixed economic signals. The US Dollar Index consolidated with a modest 0.3 per cent decline, as traders weighed the implications of looser policy on currency strength.

Commodities presented a more varied picture: gold slipped 0.2 per cent, maintaining its role as a hedge against uncertainty, but Brent crude tumbled 1.7 per cent below US$67 per barrel, pressured by ongoing oversupply fears from OPEC+ production and sluggish global demand. These movements illustrate a market in transition, where the promise of Fed easing supports equities and bonds, yet commodity weakness hints at underlying economic headwinds that could temper the enthusiasm.

Turning to the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin has captured particular attention with its 1.55 per cent rise over the past 24 hours, outpacing the broader crypto market’s 1.83 per cent gain. This daily uptick aligns with a weekly advance of 3.82 per cent, though it trails behind monthly and quarterly averages, down 3.1 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively.

As of September 12, 2025, Bitcoin hovers around US$114,290, having rebounded from recent lows near US$111,500 but still testing resistance at US$115,000. This price action occurs against a backdrop of several bullish catalysts. Foremost among them is the heightened probability of Fed rate cuts, which historically boost risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies by lowering borrowing costs and encouraging investment in high-growth sectors. Markets now assign 50 per cent odds to a 50 basis point cut on September 17, a scenario that could flood the system with liquidity and propel Bitcoin higher.

Additionally, regulatory tailwinds from the SEC’s proposed generic listing standards for crypto ETFs promise to streamline approvals for altcoin products, potentially accelerating inflows and broadening market participation. The agency has already greenlit in-kind creations and redemptions for crypto exchange-traded products in August 2025, aligning them with traditional commodity funds and reducing operational frictions. Complementing this, stablecoin reserves on exchanges have swelled to a record US$70 billion, indicating ample dry powder for buying but also raising concerns about potential selling pressure if sentiment sours.

However, beneath this surface buoyancy lurk technical signals that suggest Bitcoin’s uptrend may be faltering. The cryptocurrency has formed a rising wedge pattern on its charts, characterised by two ascending and converging trendlines that often precede bearish reversals. As these lines approach their apex, the risk of a breakdown intensifies, with analysts warning of a potential drop below US$100,000 if support levels give way. The Average Directional Index, a key trend strength indicator, has retreated from a year-to-date peak of 60 to around 24, pointing to diminishing momentum in the current rally.

Compounding this, the Relative Strength Index exhibits a bearish divergence, where the oscillator forms a descending channel even as prices climb, a setup that frequently heralds strong downward breakouts. Recent analyses highlight this divergence on weekly timeframes, with RSI flashing triple bearish signals that echo historical fragility points in equities, such as the 1998 LTCM crisis or the 2008 financial meltdown.

Moreover, Bitcoin’s price action mirrors patterns from past cycles, including a potential double top reminiscent of 2021, which preceded a 77 per cent correction. September’s historical underperformance, averaging negative returns since 2013, adds another layer of caution, with some projections eyeing a dip to US$108,802 or even US$88,000 in a deeper pullback.

Sentiment on social platforms like X reflects this dichotomy, with users debating the Fed cut’s implications. Some warn of a “sell the news” event, where Bitcoin rallies in the lead-up to the announcement only to crash afterward, as the cut, whether 25 or 50 basis points, may already be fully priced in by participants.

Posts highlight JPMorgan’s caution that easing might not trigger a uniform risk-on surge, potentially sparking a broader market dump. Others point to whale selling pressure, with over 100,000 BTC offloaded recently amid frozen corporate buys, and miner outflows turning bearish post-halving.

Bullish voices counter with observations of institutional accumulation, including 1,417 entities holding over 1,000 BTC each, and daily corporate purchases averaging 1,400 BTC, signaling long-term confidence. Threads discuss Bitcoin’s resilience, noting hidden bullish divergences in RSI near oversold levels and a flattening MACD, which could catalyse a rebound if liquidity flows resume. One prominent analyst frames the setup as a consolidation phase, with the Network Value to Transactions ratio at 1.51, well below overvaluation thresholds, suggesting sustainable growth driven by utility rather than speculation.

In my view, while the bearish technical indicators and historical September weakness pose genuine short-term risks, Bitcoin’s trajectory remains fundamentally upward over the longer horizon. The Fed’s impending cut, even if it triggers a knee-jerk selloff, will ultimately enhance liquidity in a way that benefits high-beta assets, such as cryptocurrencies, especially as dollar weakness from policy easing drives capital into alternatives like Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold.”

Regulatory progress on ETFs, coupled with surging stablecoin reserves, underscores growing institutional adoption that could absorb any temporary dips. Historical parallels, such as post-halving Septembers leading to Q4 surges, suggest this correction might be a buying opportunity rather than a prelude to collapse.

That said, a failure to hold US$113,500 support could accelerate downside toward US$100,000, validating the wedge breakdown. Investors should monitor the Fed’s decision closely: a 50 basis point surprise might ignite a rally to US$120,000, as some inverse head-and-shoulders patterns imply, while a cautious 25 basis point trim could extend the choppiness.

Overall, the interplay of macro easing and crypto-specific tailwinds tilts the scales toward optimism, provided global growth holds steady amid tariff uncertainties. This moment feels like a pivotal inflection point, where patience and data-driven positioning will separate winners from those caught in volatility’s grip.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-great-divergence-how-us-inflation-jobless-claims-and-crypto-charts-are-clashing-ahead-of-the-feds-big-decision-20250912/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j