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Europe’s Digital Euro: A Surveillance Coin in Disguise

Europe’s Digital Euro: A Surveillance Coin in Disguise

As the European Central Bank (ECB) pushes forward with plans to launch a retail Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) by 2029, pending legislative approval in 2026 and pilot testing from mid-2027, it’s tempting to view this as a neutral evolution of money in a digital age. But beneath the glossy language of “secure payments” and “complementing cash” lies a stark reality. This is not about innovation. It’s about control. And it stands in sharp contrast to the more pragmatic, market-driven approaches emerging elsewhere, most notably in the United Arab Emirates.

Let’s dispense with euphemisms. In my opinion, the ECB’s so-called “digital euro” is not a tool for financial inclusion or technological progress. With a €1.3 billion budget, no use of blockchain, no privacy safeguards, and no mechanism for redemption into physical cash or other assets, it functions less like money and more like a programmable surveillance instrument. Unlike cash, which is anonymous, final, and free from intermediation, the digital euro will be fully traceable, subject to usage conditions such as spending caps or expiry dates, and entirely under the thumb of central authorities. That’s not monetary policy. That’s digital authoritarianism wrapped in technocratic jargon.

The ECB insists the digital euro will “complement” cash, not replace it. But actions speak louder than reassurances. Why pour billions into a parallel currency if cash isn’t the target? Why design a system where every transaction is logged, monitored, and potentially restricted unless the goal is to shift economic behavior through oversight? In a continent already grappling with rising energy costs, inflation, and bureaucratic overreach, the last thing citizens need is a state-mandated payment layer that watches, judges, and possibly penalizes their spending.

Compare this to the UAE, a jurisdiction often dismissed as a “small player” but one that is rapidly becoming a blueprint for 21st-century financial infrastructure. The UAE isn’t pushing a retail CBDC on its citizens. Instead, it operates a layered, purpose-built stack: a wholesale-only Digital Dirham for cross-border interbank settlements, already live with India, China, and Saudi Arabia; regulated deposit tokens issued by banks for trade finance; and a thriving, regulated stablecoin ecosystem for retail and corporate payments. Circle, Paxos, and Tether are all operating under the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE), offering programmable, exportable, and transparent digital dollars. No coercion. No surveillance by design. Just clear roles, clear rules, and market choice.

This is the critical distinction. The UAE understands that money thrives on trust, but trust is earned through transparency, competition, and user sovereignty, not top-down mandates. Stablecoins, despite their critics, have already demonstrated this at scale. A $307 billion market cap and Tether’s projected $10 billion profit in 2025 are not flukes. They reflect real demand for digital money that is fast, open, and not tethered to government discretion. The U.S., for all its regulatory ambiguity, has largely embraced this reality, allowing innovation to flourish while slowly building guardrails.

Europe, by contrast, is doubling down on control. The digital euro debate is mired in technicalities about wallet limits and transaction expiration, not user experience, not interoperability, not financial resilience. It’s as if the ECB learned nothing from the crypto winters or the global shift toward decentralized finance. Instead of fostering a competitive landscape where stablecoins, commercial bank money, and cash coexist, Europe wants a monolithic, state-run alternative that centralizes power under the guise of “security.”

Make no mistake. CBDCs have a legitimate role, but only in the plumbing of finance. Wholesale CBDCs can streamline interbank settlements, reduce settlement risk, and enhance cross-border liquidity. That’s infrastructure. But injecting a retail CBDC directly into public wallets is a different beast entirely. It turns money into a policy lever, one that can be throttled, redirected, or disabled based on political whims or social engineering goals. Once deployed, such a system will be nearly impossible to roll back.

And for what? The ECB claims the digital euro will “build trust.” But trust in money doesn’t come from central control. It comes from reliability, scarcity, and freedom of use. Cash offers that. Gold offers that. Even well-regulated stablecoins offer that. A digital euro, designed without privacy, without redemption rights, and without decentralization, offers none of it.

The irony is palpable. At a time when citizens worldwide are reevaluating their relationship with institutions, the ECB is engineering a currency that embodies institutional overreach. Meanwhile, jurisdictions like the UAE are building open, modular, and exportable financial rails that empower businesses and individuals alike. One path leads to innovation and sovereignty. The other to surveillance and stagnation.

I’ve spent over a decade observing the evolution of digital assets, from Bitcoin’s cypherpunk roots to the institutionalization of DeFi and the rise of regulated stablecoins. What’s clear is this. The future of money belongs to systems that enhance user agency, not restrict it. Europe’s digital euro, as currently conceived, does the opposite. It’s not a response to market demand. It’s a preemptive strike against financial pluralism.

So, if you’re in Europe and value privacy, autonomy, or simply the right to transact without Big Brother’s ledger tracking your lunch purchase, think twice. The ECB may call it “progress.” But history will likely remember it as the moment Europe chose control over freedom, surveillance over trust, and bureaucracy over innovation.

And I, for one, wouldn’t want to be forced to use it.

Short bio:

Anndy Lian is an all-rounded business strategist in Asia. He has provided advisory across a variety of industries for local, international, and public-listed companies and governments. He is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur, book author, investor, board member, and keynote speaker.

 

Source: https://852web3.media/2025/11/18/europes-digital-euro-a-surveillance-coin-in-disguise-2/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Survive the chop, ride the wave: Why Q4 could deliver a surge in tech and digital assets

Survive the chop, ride the wave: Why Q4 could deliver a surge in tech and digital assets

Recent announcements from major tech players, such as NVIDIA’s massive commitments to OpenAI and Intel, have sparked widespread enthusiasm about AI’s potential to drive economic growth. These deals, totalling over US$100 billion in some estimates, underscore a broader trend where companies pour resources into AI infrastructure, expecting transformative returns in efficiency and innovation.

This wave of investment has lifted equity markets, particularly in Asia and the US, where tech-heavy indices lead the charge. Investors see AI as a catalyst that could sustain rallies even amid economic uncertainties, fuelling a risk-on environment that extends beyond traditional stocks into commodities and digital assets.

Fed’s first rate cut of 2025

The Federal Reserve’s recent actions add another layer to this positive sentiment. Last week, the Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00 per cent to 4.25 per cent, marking the first cut of 2025 and signalling a pivot toward easing. This move came after months of speculation, with markets pricing in the change well in advance.

In his post-meeting press conference, Chair Jerome Powell described the adjustment as a precautionary step to bolster the labour market, emphasising that inflation risks have diminished while employment concerns grow. He noted a curious balance in the job market, with unemployment at 4.3 per cent and slower job gains, but stressed that the cut aims to prevent further weakening without reigniting price pressures.

Today, Powell delivers another speech on the economic outlook, which traders anticipate will provide clues about the pace of future easing. His comments could either reinforce the bullish mood or introduce caution if he highlights persistent challenges like tariff impacts or global tensions.

Diverging voices within the Fed

Divergent views among Fed officials highlight the nuanced path ahead. Newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran, in his inaugural policy speech, argued forcefully that current rates remain overly restrictive, potentially risking higher unemployment if not lowered aggressively. Appointed by President Trump, Miran positions himself as an outlier, suggesting the benchmark rate sits far above neutral levels and calls for swift reductions to stimulate growth.

In contrast, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem endorsed the recent 25-basis-point cut as a safeguard for the labor market but warned of limited scope for additional moves. He views the economy as resilient, with inflation trending toward the two per cent target, and advocates a measured approach to avoid overstimulating demand.

These contrasting stances reflect internal debates at the Fed, where the dot plot from the latest meeting shows a split on 2025 projections. Some officials foresee one more cut, while others expect two, but many anticipate a pause thereafter. Markets will scrutinise Powell’s remarks for resolution, as his guidance often sets the tone for asset prices.

Wall Street rides the momentum

Wall Street captured this optimism on Monday, extending its rally with tech stocks at the forefront. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.14 per cent, the S&P 500 climbed 0.44 per cent, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.70 per cent, reflecting broad-based gains driven by AI enthusiasm. Treasury yields ticked higher amid the Fed’s cautious rhetoric, with the 10-year note up 1.9 basis points to 4.147 per cent and the two-year yield increasing 3.1 basis points to 3.603 per cent.

This slight uptick suggests investors temper expectations for deep easing, focusing instead on balanced growth. The US dollar index slipped 0.31 per cent to 97.341, easing pressure on exports and commodities. Gold surged 1.7 per cent to a record US$3,746.70 per ounce, benefiting from sustained rate-cut bets and a weaker dollar.

Brent crude, however, dipped 0.2 per cent to US$66.57 per barrel, as oversupply fears overshadowed geopolitical risks in Russia and the Middle East. Asian equities showed mixed results on Monday but opened higher today, though Japanese markets closed for the Autumnal Equinox holiday. US futures point to a flat open, indicating a pause as participants await Powell’s insights.

Crypto pullback amid heavy liquidations

The cryptocurrency market presents a stark contrast, enduring a sharp pullback on Tuesday that erased recent gains. The total crypto market capitalisation fell two per cent to around US$3.9 trillion, with Bitcoin dropping toward US$112,000 amid heavy liquidations.

Over the past 24 hours, US$1.7 billion in positions liquidated, mostly longs, marking the year’s largest such event and accelerating the sell-off as leveraged trades unwound. Bitcoin traded down 1.8 per cent near US$112,561, Ethereum slid 3.3 per cent to US$4,197, BNB declined four per cent to US$991.3, and Solana tumbled 6.2 per cent to US$219.03. This downturn followed an initial boost from the Fed’s rate cut, which propelled altcoins over the weekend, but momentum faded quickly.

The announcement from the defunct FTX exchange about starting its third distribution of US$1.6 billion to claim holders on September 30 likely contributed to the cooling sentiment, as it introduces potential selling pressure from recipients cashing out. Despite the dip, macro signals remain supportive, with the Fed’s easing cycle expected to enhance liquidity and attract risk capital back into digital assets.

ETF inflows highlight institutional confidence

Bright spots emerge in crypto fund flows, offering a counterpoint to the volatility. Last week, spot Ethereum ETFs recorded US$556 million in net inflows, boosting total net assets to US$29.6 billion, according to data from SoSoValue. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew US$886.6 million, elevating assets to US$152.31 billion.

These inflows, continuing a four-week streak totalling US$3.9 billion for crypto funds overall, demonstrate sustained institutional interest even as prices fluctuate. Bitcoin ETFs alone saw US$887 million in the week ending September 19, underscoring confidence in the asset as a hedge against traditional market risks.

Ethereum funds outperformed in some sessions, with US$307 million in one day, suggesting rotation toward alternatives as Bitcoin consolidates. This capital influx aligns with broader trends, where lower rates make yield-generating crypto strategies more appealing compared to fixed-income options.

Bitcoin’s role in corporate balance sheets

Corporate developments further illustrate Bitcoin’s growing role as a treasury asset. Strive, Inc. and Semler Scientific announced a merger in an all-stock deal, valuing Semler at a 210 per cent premium, or approximately US$90.52 per share, based on the closing prices of September 19.

Semler shareholders receive 21.05 Strive Class A shares each, combining their Bitcoin holdings into a post-merger treasury exceeding 10,900 coins. Strive added 5,816 Bitcoin at an average US$116,047 per coin, totalling 5,886, enhancing the entity’s balance sheet with digital reserves. Separately, Bitcoin miner CleanSpark expanded its credit facility with Coinbase Prime by US$100 million, backed by its holdings.

With a market cap of US$3.84 billion and shares up 48 per cent year-to-date, CleanSpark plans to use the funds for energy portfolio growth, mining expansion, and high-performance computing. CEO Matt Schultz highlighted the move as a step toward diversifying data centre uses, supported by a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 4.37.

Outlook: Resilient but volatile

In my view, the current landscape points to a resilient yet volatile path forward for global markets. The Fed’s easing, coupled with AI-driven investment fervour, creates fertile ground for risk assets to thrive, potentially propelling equities and crypto to new heights in the fourth quarter.

Mixed Fed signals introduce short-term uncertainty. Miran’s aggressive stance could embolden bulls if adopted, while Musalem’s caution tempers over-exuberance. Crypto’s recent dip, fuelled by liquidations and FTX news, feels like a temporary flush amid strong ETF inflows and corporate adoption trends.

Companies like Strive and CleanSpark are treating Bitcoin as a core asset, signalling maturing institutional confidence, which could stabilise prices over time. Overall, I remain optimistic: survive the chop, and the liquidity wave from policy shifts might ignite a sustained bull run, rewarding those who position early in tech and digital innovations.

 

Source: https://e27.co/survive-the-chop-ride-the-wave-why-q4-could-deliver-a-surge-in-tech-and-digital-assets-20250923/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The Fed, tariffs, and digital assets: What investors are watching

The Fed, tariffs, and digital assets: What investors are watching

Investors appear to shrug off the ongoing global uncertainties, focusing instead on positive economic signals and the prospect of monetary policy easing from central banks. This resilience comes at a time when the world economy navigates a complex landscape of inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and shifting alliances.

Markets have demonstrated an ability to adapt, with equity indices pushing higher and volatility remaining contained. Yet, beneath this calm surface lies a web of risks that could unsettle the balance if not managed carefully. The ongoing conflicts in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East add layers of unpredictability, influencing everything from energy prices to investor confidence.

Despite these challenges, the broader appetite for risk assets suggests that participants believe in the underlying strength of global growth, particularly in developed economies.

The latest data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics has painted a clearer picture of the labour market’s trajectory, revealing a significant downward revision in payroll numbers. Officials adjusted the figures by 911,000 jobs for the 12-month period ending in March, exceeding estimates of a 700,000 reduction.

This equates to roughly 76,000 fewer jobs per month than previously reported, signalling a softer employment landscape than many had anticipated. Such revisions often stem from more comprehensive data sources, like tax records, which provide a fuller view of hiring trends. This adjustment has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will act decisively to support the economy, with a rate cut appearing imminent at the next meeting.

Lower interest rates typically stimulate borrowing and investment, helping to sustain growth amid signs of cooling. However, this data also highlights vulnerabilities, as slower job creation could translate into reduced consumer spending if not offset by wage gains or other supports.

Analysts have noted that while the revision implies average monthly gains of about 71,000 jobs, the overall labor market remains robust by historical standards, avoiding the sharp contractions seen in past downturns.

Tariff escalation and trade tensions

President Trump’s escalation of tariff threats has introduced fresh volatility into international trade relations, targeting key players like India and China while proposing up to 100 per cent duties on Russia to pressure it into de-escalating tensions with Ukraine.

This move, contingent on similar actions from the European Union, aims to use economic leverage to influence geopolitical outcomes. Tariffs of this magnitude could disrupt global supply chains, raising costs for importers and potentially slowing economic activity in affected sectors.

For instance, India’s role as a major processor of Russian oil has drawn scrutiny, with US imports of these products highlighting the interconnected nature of energy markets. Critics argue that such policies risk retaliatory measures, echoing the trade wars of previous years that hampered growth. Russia has responded by downplaying the threats, suggesting efforts to strengthen ties with alternatives like China and India.

This tariff strategy reflects a broader shift toward protectionism, which could undermine multilateral efforts to resolve conflicts. While intended to bolster US negotiating power, the approach may strain alliances and complicate recovery in a post-pandemic world still grappling with inflation and debt.

Equity market rally on Fed hopes

US equities have surged to new record highs, buoyed by the payroll revision that has heightened anticipation of Federal Reserve intervention to prop up the economy. The S&P 500 advanced 0.3 per cent, the Nasdaq gained 0.4 per cent, and the Dow Jones rose 0.4 per cent, reflecting broad-based optimism across sectors.

Technology stocks led the charge, as investors bet that lower borrowing costs would benefit growth-oriented companies. This rally occurs against a backdrop of solid corporate earnings and improving consumer sentiment, though some caution that valuations are stretched. The market’s reaction underscores a belief in a soft landing, where the Fed engineers a slowdown without tipping into recession.

Historical precedents show that rate cuts often ignite equity booms, but they also carry risks if underlying economic weaknesses persist. With futures indicating mixed openings, traders are closely monitoring upcoming data releases for confirmation of this trajectory.

Bond yields and dollar movements

Bond yields have rebounded after a brief dip, with the 2-year Treasury yield climbing 7.2 basis points to 3.558 per cent and the 10-year yield up 4.8 basis points to 4.088 per cent. This movement suggests that investors are adjusting to the likelihood of a rate cut while pricing in persistent concerns about inflation. Higher yields typically signal expectations of stronger growth or stickier prices; however, in this context, they may reflect a normalisation following recent declines.

The dynamics of the yield curve play a crucial role in banking profitability and lending activity, influencing everything from mortgages to corporate debt. As the Fed prepares to ease, these shifts could ease financial conditions, encouraging investment. However, if yields rise too sharply, they might tighten conditions prematurely, countering the central bank’s intentions.

The US Dollar Index strengthened 0.3 per cent to 97.79, benefiting from safe-haven flows amid global uncertainties. This appreciation pressures emerging markets, making dollar-denominated debt more expensive to service. Gold, conversely, retreated 0.3 per cent to US$3,674 per ounce, as the stronger dollar and rising yields diminished its appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Brent crude oil edged up 0.6 per cent, driven by escalating tensions between Israel and Qatar, which raise fears of disruptions in key supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Oil’s sensitivity to geopolitical events underscores its role as a barometer for global stability, with prices fluctuating based on perceived risks to production and transit.

Asian equity indices opened mostly higher today, extending the positive momentum from Wall Street. This uptick reflects regional resilience, though concerns over trade tariffs linger. US equity futures point to a mixed start, suggesting caution as investors digest the latest developments.

Metaplanet expands Bitcoin strategy

Turning to the cryptocurrency space, Japan-based Metaplanet has announced plans to issue 385 million new shares, aiming to raise approximately US$1.4 billion to fuel its Bitcoin acquisition strategy. The company priced the shares at ¥553 each, upsizing from an initial 180 million shares, with proceeds primarily allocated to purchasing Bitcoin and enhancing its income-generation operations.

As of September 1, Metaplanet holds over 20,000 Bitcoins, accumulated since early 2024, and has generated significant revenue from Bitcoin options trading, reporting ¥1,904 million in the second quarter of 2025. This move positions Metaplanet as Asia’s equivalent to MicroStrategy, emphasising Bitcoin as a core treasury asset.

The firm’s strategy includes using earnings to pay dividends on preferred shares, blending yield generation with cryptocurrency holding. Institutional interest, such as a US$30 million investment from KindlyMD’s subsidiary Nakamoto, underscores growing confidence in this approach.

Metaplanet’s actions highlight a broader trend where corporations integrate digital assets into balance sheets, seeking inflation hedges and growth potential.

Bitcoin and Ethereum stance

Bitcoin’s price path depends on a dynamic interplay between institutional adoption and regulatory advancements. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows of US$14.8 billion year-to-date, providing a buffer against selling pressures and indicating sustained demand from traditional finance. Legislative efforts to establish a US Bitcoin reserve, holding around 198,000 BTC, could solidify its status as a strategic asset, anchoring long-term value.

Technical upgrades like BIP-119, which introduces covenants for enhanced scalability and security, are under debate and may reach consensus by year’s end, potentially reshaping Bitcoin’s utility. These factors collectively suggest Bitcoin is maturing beyond speculative trading, evolving into a foundational element of global finance.

Ethereum has encountered resistance in its recent price movements, declining below US$4,450 and consolidating around key levels. The asset struggles to breach US$4,400, trading below this mark and the 100-hourly simple moving average. A bearish trend line forms resistance at US$4,340 on the hourly chart, with immediate hurdles at US$4,350 and US$4,380. If Ethereum clears these, it could initiate a recovery wave, targeting higher zones.

However, failure to do so might lead to further tests of support near US$4,260. Analysts predict Ethereum could fluctuate between US$4,000 and US$5,000 in September 2025, driven by network upgrades and institutional interest. The cryptocurrency’s performance ties closely to broader market sentiment, with potential for upside if rate cuts materialise and DeFi adoption accelerates.

Outlook and risks ahead

In my view, the current market environment demonstrates a remarkable capacity for adaptation in the face of adversity. Equities reaching records despite downward data revisions and tariff escalations point to a collective bet on central bank support and economic resilience. The Fed’s likely intervention could extend this bull run, but overreliance on monetary easing risks inflating asset bubbles.

Geopolitically, Trump’s tariff tactics, while bold, may backfire by fragmenting trade and inviting retaliation, reminiscent of past protectionist pitfalls that deepened downturns. On the crypto front, initiatives like Metaplanet’s aggressive Bitcoin stacking and potential US reserves signal a paradigm shift, where digital assets transition from fringe to mainstream. Ethereum’s technical challenges notwithstanding, the sector’s institutional inflows and innovations bode well for long-term growth.

Overall, while short-term volatility looms, particularly with September’s historical weakness, the foundational trends favor cautious optimism. Investors who navigate these waters with diversified strategies stand to benefit, as the interplay of policy, technology, and sentiment continues to shape outcomes in unpredictable ways. This moment underscores the importance of vigilance, as today’s robustness could swiftly give way to tomorrow’s corrections if key supports falter.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-fed-tariffs-and-digital-assets-what-investors-are-watching-20250910/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j