Tag Archives: earnings

Crypto plunges, big tech earnings are strong. So why are markets nervous?

Crypto plunges, big tech earnings are strong. So why are markets nervous?

US equity futures advanced in early trading, with Nasdaq 100 futures gaining 0.9 per cent and S&P 500 futures up 0.4 per cent in Asian sessions, supported by strong after-hours results from Alphabet and Amazon.

This optimism meets a sobering reality as Brent crude surged 1.9 per cent to US$120.30 a barrel, a level not seen since mid-2022, driven by uncertainty over a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady at 3.50 per cent to 3.75 per cent on Wednesday, with Chair Powell explicitly citing elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, sets a cautious tone that permeates every asset class.

Corporate earnings provide both relief and concern. Alphabet and Amazon shares climbed in late-session trading, reinforcing the ongoing AI-investment boom that continues to drive capital allocation across technology. Meta Platforms told a different story, slumping in after-hours trading as investors questioned the sustainability of its high capital expenditure levels.

Qualcomm’s 13 per cent rally on significant progress in the data-centre market signals that semiconductor demand remains robust beyond traditional end markets. All eyes now turn to Apple, set to report earnings today, which will serve as the final major test for the Magnificent Seven this season. The divergence among these names reflects a market that is increasingly selective about which growth narratives merit premium valuations in a higher-rate environment.

Geopolitical tensions dominate the macro backdrop. Reports of a US naval blockade and an escalating conflict in Iran have injected volatility into energy markets, while the UAE’s reported exit from OPEC adds another layer of supply-side uncertainty. Asian shares fell at the open on Thursday, with the ASX 200 also opening lower as investors reacted to the oil shock.

The Core PCE Price Index data for March, expected during this session, will serve as a critical input for the Fed’s next policy assessment. This confluence of factors creates a market environment in which traditional correlations break down, and risk assets face heightened scrutiny.

Within this complex backdrop, crypto-focused equities tell a particularly revealing story. Listed crypto plays experienced a broad sell-off, with Robinhood dropping about 14 per cent after reporting a 47 per cent year-over-year collapse in crypto transaction revenue. Coinbase, Bullish, Gemini, Riot, and Marathon all declined roughly six to eight per cent on the day, while MicroStrategy fell about four per cent.

Across the same window, Bitcoin traded just below US$76,000, down only 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent. This divergence underscores a critical distinction that many investors overlook: crypto-linked equities behave more like leveraged technology and fintech exposures than like Bitcoin itself.

From my perspective, this dynamic reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of how macro forces transmit through different layers of the digital asset ecosystem. When oil prices surge toward US$120 a barrel, headline inflation expectations rise, pushing Treasury yields higher and compressing multiples for long-duration, speculative equities.

Crypto exchanges depend on trading volumes that have already weakened, while miners operate capital-intensive businesses perceived as highly cyclical. These characteristics make their stocks particularly sensitive to shifts in macro risk appetite, even when the underlying cryptocurrency demonstrates relative resilience.

The market’s reaction reveals that investors still price crypto equities through a traditional growth-stock lens rather than appreciating the unique value accrual mechanisms of decentralised protocols.

Three variables warrant close attention moving forward.

  • First, oil prices and war headlines: sustained crude above US$100 per barrel keeps inflation pressure elevated and delays the timeline for rate cuts, creating a persistent headwind for high-beta crypto equities.
  • Second, central bank signals: if the Fed or other major central banks adopt a more hawkish stance in response to energy-driven inflation, equity multiples for speculative sectors face further compression.
  • Third, sector fundamentals: upcoming earnings from listed exchanges and miners will reveal whether the current selloff reflects pure macro beta or signals weakening business models. Crypto volumes, fee trends, power costs, and pivots toward AI and high-performance computing will all factor into this assessment.

The latest slide in crypto-related stocks reflects a macro shock rather than a crypto-specific failure. Surging oil prices feed inflation worries, pin interest rates higher, and punish high-beta, speculative equities across the board.

For investors navigating this landscape, the key distinction is recognising that listed brokers and miners have dual exposure: they participate in Bitcoin cycles while remaining vulnerable to energy-driven macro cycles. Monitoring oil trajectories, Fed expectations, and sector-specific earnings becomes essential when assessing risk in these vehicles versus holding the underlying digital assets.

Mainstream narratives often conflate spot crypto performance with equity proxies, but the transmission mechanisms differ substantially. In a world where geopolitical risk and monetary policy intersect with technological innovation, clarity about these distinctions separates informed positioning from reactive trading.

The path forward demands attention to both the macro forces shaping all risk assets and the unique fundamentals driving decentralised networks. Only by holding both lenses can investors navigate the volatility ahead with conviction rather than confusion.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-plunges-big-tech-earnings-are-strong-so-why-are-markets-nervous-20260430/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Tech earnings fail AI test and crypto pays the price

Tech earnings fail AI test and crypto pays the price

Asian equity markets began the session on a sombre note, weighed down by a broad-based retreat in technology stocks, a sector that has powered regional gains throughout much of the year. The sell-off reflects growing investor unease over the sustainability of artificial intelligence-driven valuations, especially as major US tech firms like Oracle and Broadcom delivered earnings outlooks that failed to meet elevated expectations.

The ripple effects from Wall Street’s Nasdaq, which dropped 1.81 per cent, have now reached Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Seoul, reinforcing the increasingly tight correlation between global tech sentiment and risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 opened at 49,004.9 points, marking a decline of over one per cent from its prior close of 49,512.28. The losses were led by heavyweight tech and semiconductor-related names, with SoftBank Group plunging 7.25 per cent on concerns that its aggressive AI and venture bets may not deliver near-term returns.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index hovered around 25,405.63 points, slightly lower for the day, but the real pain came from its technology sub-index, which slid sharply as mainland and overseas investors rotated out of growth-oriented equities. Meanwhile, mainland China’s Shanghai Composite bucked the trend slightly, trading at 3,874.3586 points with a modest gain, though it too experienced earlier-week volatility as Beijing’s mixed signals on fiscal stimulus and tech regulation created uncertainty.

At the heart of this market-wide caution lies a fundamental reassessment of AI-driven capital allocation. For over two years, tech companies across Asia, from South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix to Taiwan’s TSMC, have poured billions into AI infrastructure, data centres, and next-generation chip development. These investments lifted stock prices to record highs, supported by narratives of an AI revolution that would reshape global productivity.

Today’s market action suggests investors are demanding more than vision; they want measurable returns. With forward earnings revisions turning negative for several key players, the market is pricing in a potential gap between ambition and profitability.

This shift in sentiment has spilled directly into the cryptocurrency market, which fell 1.64 per cent in the last 24 hours, extending a 7.17 per cent weekly decline. The linkage is no longer coincidental; it is structural. Over the past 18 months, institutional capital has increasingly treated large-cap crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, as a satellite to the Nasdaq, especially during macro regimes dominated by liquidity expectations and risk appetite.

The 24-hour correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 now stands at plus 0.89, meaning the two move in near lockstep. When US tech falters, crypto follows, and today’s Nasdaq weakness is fuelled by AI scepticism, which is transmitted directly into digital asset markets.

Compounding the pressure was a significant liquidation cascade in crypto derivatives markets. In just 24 hours, Bitcoin saw US$153 million in liquidations, a 148 per cent increase from the prior day, with short positions accounting for US$79.5 million of that total. Such aggressive unwinding of leveraged positions typically occurs when prices breach key technical levels, triggering stop-losses and margin calls in a self-reinforcing spiral.

With total open interest across crypto derivatives at US$776 billion, the ecosystem remains highly sensitive to volatility shocks. The 7-day Relative Strength Index for Bitcoin has plunged to 15.4, signalling extreme oversold conditions, a level that historically precedes short-term bounces. Without a catalyst, oversold does not automatically mean reversal.

Further undermining confidence is the curious paradox surrounding XRP. Despite the recent launch of an XRP exchange-traded fund that has drawn US$1 billion in inflows since November, the token itself trades 47 per cent below its all-time high. This disconnect between institutional adoption and price performance has sown doubt among retail traders and algorithmic strategies alike.

If a regulated ETF with billion-dollar backing cannot reignite momentum in a top-five asset, the broader altcoin market may lack the firepower for a meaningful recovery. As a result, Bitcoin dominance has climbed to 59.2 per cent, reflecting a flight to relative safety within an already volatile asset class.

Crypto’s traditional role as a hedge has also diminished. Its 24-hour correlation with gold has turned negative at minus 0.35, indicating that in the current environment, it behaves not as a store of value but as a high-beta tech proxy. This shift matters because it means that during macro stress, such as uncertainty around central bank policy, crypto no longer offers diversification benefits. Instead, it amplifies risk. Traders now view it through the same lens as semiconductor stocks or cloud software equities, a leveraged bet on future innovation with limited near-term cash flows.

Looking ahead, all eyes in Asia will turn to the Bank of Japan’s policy decision later today. While Japan has maintained ultra-loose monetary policy longer than any other major economy, recent inflation data and yen weakness have sparked speculation that a rate hike, however modest, could be on the table. Such a move would tighten financial conditions in the region, further pressuring high-duration assets like tech stocks and crypto. Even the mere acknowledgement of a policy shift could trigger another leg down in risk markets.

In this context, the path for Bitcoin and Asian tech hinges less on fundamentals and more on macro liquidity. The market is no longer rewarding vision alone. It requires evidence that AI investments will translate into earnings, that crypto ETFs will drive sustainable demand, and that central banks will not abruptly withdraw the punchbowl. Until those questions are answered, volatility will persist, and the correlation between the Nasdaq and crypto will remain a dominant force shaping price action.

The current oversold RSI reading may hint at a tactical bounce, but without a shift in narrative or policy, any relief rally could prove fleeting. The era of unquestioning faith in AI-driven growth appears to be giving way to a more discerning, earnings-focused regime, one that will separate speculative narratives from enduring value.

 

Source: https://e27.co/tech-earnings-fail-ai-test-and-crypto-pays-the-price-20251218/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

October’s perfect storm: Earnings, regulation, and the crypto sell-off

October’s perfect storm: Earnings, regulation, and the crypto sell-off

The recent pullback in crypto markets reflects a complex interplay of macroeconomic forces, derivatives dynamics, and evolving regulatory frameworks. At its core, the 1.24 per cent decline over the past 24 hours and the broader 4.99 per cent slide over the past week cannot be attributed to a single factor.

Instead, it emerges from a convergence of risk-off sentiment in traditional markets, a reset in leveraged positioning, and heightened scrutiny over the structural integrity of stablecoins under new legislative proposals. These elements collectively reinforce crypto’s current role as a correlated risk asset rather than a safe haven or uncorrelated store of value.

Global risk sentiment remains subdued as investors brace for a critical wave of corporate earnings reports scheduled between October 23 and 27. The performance of major US technology firms will likely dictate near-term direction not only for equities but also for digital assets, given the persistent correlation between crypto and tech-heavy indices.

On Tuesday, US equities closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.47 per cent while the Nasdaq slipped 0.16 per cent. This divergence underscores underlying fragility in market breadth, particularly as tariff-related concerns weigh on industrial and export-oriented sectors. Notably, the 24-hour correlation between Bitcoin and the Dow reached +0.89, while its link to the Nasdaq stood at +0.33, confirming that broader equity weakness, especially in cyclical segments, continues to drag on crypto sentiment.

Compounding this dynamic is the sharp correction in gold, which plunged 5.3 per cent to US$4,125.22 per ounce on October 21, marking its steepest single-day decline in over a decade. This collapse in a traditional safe-haven asset further illustrates the market’s risk-off posture and suggests that capital is not rotating into defensive instruments but rather retreating into liquidity or the US dollar, which rose 0.35 per cent to 98.934 on the Dollar Index.

Meanwhile, Brent crude edged higher to US$61.32 per barrel, supported by declining US crude inventories, highlighting a nuanced energy-market backdrop that has not yet translated into broader commodity strength.

In Japan, political developments added another layer of geopolitical nuance. Sanae Takaichi secured 237 votes in the Diet on October 21 to become Japan’s first female prime minister, following her victory in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership race on October 4.

Her stated intention to meet with US President Donald Trump to elevate Japan-US relations to new heights introduces potential for renewed trade dialogue, though Trump’s own remarks expressing optimism about a possible deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping while simultaneously casting doubt on whether the meeting will occur, inject further uncertainty into global trade expectations. This ambiguity feeds directly into market caution, as unresolved trade tensions remain a key overhang for risk assets.

Turning to crypto-specific drivers, the derivatives market has undergone a significant deleveraging event. Open interest in perpetual futures surged 9.82 per cent to US$952 billion, but this buildup was heavily skewed toward long positions during Bitcoin’s rally to US$126,198 on October 6. That peak represented a historic milestone, driven by institutional inflows and macro tailwinds, but it also sowed the seeds of vulnerability.

As prices reversed, US$321 million in Bitcoin futures were liquidated, with 77 per cent of those positions held by longs. This cascade amplified selling pressure and pushed the market capitalisation below the critical US$3.74 trillion Fibonacci support level. The Relative Strength Index now sits at 28.9, signalling oversold conditions, yet technical support at US$102,000 remains the key battleground. A breach below this level could trigger further algorithmic and discretionary selling.

Regulatory developments have also weighed on sentiment, particularly surrounding the proposed GENIUS Act. While the legislation aims to create a federal framework for payment stablecoins, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr raised alarms about potential systemic risks if the law permits Bitcoin to be used as collateral in repo agreements for stablecoin reserves. A close reading of the bill reveals that the GENIUS Act actually prohibits rehypothecation of stablecoin reserves and mandates that payment stablecoins carry direct redemption rights against their underlying assets.

Furthermore, the Act explicitly forbids stablecoins from bearing interest, being staked, or providing dividends. These provisions suggest that Bitcoin-backed stablecoins, as described in the prompt, are not permitted under the current draft. Barr’s warning may therefore reflect a hypothetical or misinterpreted scenario, but the mere perception of regulatory risk has been enough to dampen institutional enthusiasm and reinforce the narrative that crypto’s path to mainstream adoption remains fraught with policy uncertainty.

Against this backdrop, the question of altcoin performance hinges on Bitcoin’s ability to stabilise. Historically, altcoins tend to underperform during broad risk-off episodes, and the current data support this pattern. Altcoin funding rates lag Bitcoin’s by -0.0004 per cent, indicating bearish positioning and reduced speculative appetite outside the flagship asset.

If Bitcoin holds $102,000 and macro conditions improve, particularly if Q3 earnings deliver resilient guidance, altcoins could experience a relief rally. However, if equity markets continue to falter and regulatory headlines intensify, sector-wide risk aversion will likely prevail, keeping altcoins tethered to Bitcoin’s fate.

In a nutshell, the current dip is not an isolated crypto event but a symptom of wider financial market recalibration. The convergence of macro headwinds, leveraged unwinds, and regulatory noise has created a perfect storm of selling pressure. The extreme fear reflected in sentiment indicators and the technical oversold condition suggest that the market may be nearing a short-term inflection point.

Whether this leads to a sustainable rebound or merely a dead-cat bounce depends on the clarity provided by the upcoming earnings season and the actual implementation, not just the rhetoric, of stablecoin regulation. Until then, traders will remain on edge, watching Bitcoin’s $102,000 support as the canary in the coal mine for the entire digital asset ecosystem.

 

Source: https://e27.co/octobers-perfect-storm-earnings-regulation-and-the-crypto-sell-off-20251022/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j