March 27th, 2025

US tariffs vs crypto wins: An economic shift

I’ve been closely following the unfolding events surrounding President Trump’s announcement of a 25 per cent tariff on all autos manufactured outside the United States, set to take effect on April 2, 2025. This decision, coupled with the ripple effects across financial markets, commodities, and the cryptocurrency sector, paints a complex picture of risk, opportunity, and uncertainty.

My perspective on this topic is shaped by a careful analysis of the data, historical precedents, and the broader implications for both traditional and decentralised financial systems. What we’re witnessing is a pivotal moment where geopolitics, trade policy, and technological innovation are colliding, with far-reaching consequences for investors, industries, and everyday consumers.

Let’s start with the tariffs themselves. The announcement of a 25 per cent levy on imported autos and car parts is a bold move, one that harkens back to Trump’s earlier trade policies during his first term. The stated goal, presumably, is to bolster domestic manufacturing and protect American jobs—a narrative that resonates with his political base. However, the immediate market reaction suggests that investors are less convinced of its efficacy.

Major US indices retreated, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.1 per cent, the Dow Jones slipping 0.3 per cent, and the Nasdaq taking a steeper 2.0 per cent hit. The technology sector, already reeling from negative news in AI and data centre developments, bore the brunt of this decline. The VIX, often dubbed the “fear gauge,” spiked 7.1 per cent to 18.36, signalling heightened volatility and unease among traders. This isn’t surprising—tariffs introduce uncertainty, and markets despise uncertainty.

The impact on the auto industry is particularly stark. Countries like Japan, Germany, South Korea, Mexico, and Canada, which collectively account for a significant share of US auto imports, now face a steep cost increase. For example, Japan’s Toyota and Germany’s Volkswagen rely heavily on the US market, and a 25 per cent tariff could force them to either absorb the cost (cutting into profit margins) or pass it on to consumers (raising prices).

Domestic producers like General Motors and Ford aren’t immune either, as the tariff extends to car parts—many of which are sourced globally. This could disrupt supply chains and elevate production costs, potentially offsetting any competitive advantage the tariffs aim to create.

I see this as a double-edged sword: while it might encourage some manufacturers to relocate production to the US, the short-term pain of higher costs and disrupted logistics could outweigh those gains, especially in an industry already grappling with inflation and semiconductor shortages.

Turning to the bond market, US Treasuries yields climbed across the curve, with the 2-year yield rising 2.3 basis points to 4.017per cent and the 10-year yield advancing 3.9 basis points to 4.352 per cent. This uptick reflects a shift in investor sentiment—higher yields suggest expectations of stronger economic growth or, more likely, inflationary pressures stemming from the tariffs. The US Dollar Index, up 0.4 per cent to a three-week high, further underscores this flight to safety and confidence in the dollar amid global uncertainty.

Commodities offered a mixed picture: gold held steady, a sign that investors aren’t fully panicking yet, while Brent crude rose 1.1 per cent to US$74 per barrel, buoyed by reports of declining US inventories. In Asia, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index edged up 0.2 per cent, with Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite surging 3.8 per cent on domestic dividend news, though early trading hinted at broader regional weakness. This divergence highlights how global risk sentiment is fracturing—some markets are finding local resilience, while others brace for a tariff-induced storm.

Now, let’s pivot to the cryptocurrency angle, which adds another layer of intrigue. On the same day as the tariff announcement, Congress struck down an IRS regulation that would have required decentralised digital asset platforms to report customer transactions starting in 2027. This move, which saves the crypto industry an estimated US$4 billion in taxes, is a significant win for the sector—and, notably, for President Trump’s own World Liberty Financial platform.

Decentralised exchanges like Uniswap had argued that the rule was impractical, given their lack of custody over user assets or access to personal data. I find this development fascinating because it juxtaposes Trump’s protectionist trade stance with a deregulatory push in the crypto space, potentially benefiting his personal financial interests. It’s a reminder that policy decisions often carry a personal dimension, and here, the optics are hard to ignore.

Meanwhile, GameStop’s pivot to Bitcoin adds a wild card to the mix. The retailer’s plan to sell US$1.3 billion in zero-coupon convertible bonds to fund Bitcoin purchases—following the playbook of Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy—sent its stock soaring 12 per cent on March 26. This isn’t just a quirky corporate move; it reflects a growing trend of companies embracing cryptocurrency as a treasury reserve asset.

With Bitcoin’s price historically sensitive to macroeconomic shifts, the tariff-induced uncertainty could either amplify its appeal as a hedge or expose it to sharper volatility. Ethereum, too, is in the spotlight with its Pectra upgrade successfully launching on the Hoodi testnet, though its price dipped three per cent amid a bearish technical pattern. If Pectra hits the mainnet by April 25, as developers hope, it could bolster Ethereum’s long-term utility—yet the immediate market mood remains cautious.

The stablecoin front offers a counterpoint of stability. Custodia Bank and Vantage Bank’s launch of a US bank-backed stablecoin on Ethereum marks a milestone in bridging traditional finance and blockchain. This isn’t just a technical achievement; it’s a regulatory breakthrough, showing that US banks can tokenise assets within legal bounds.

Caitlin Long of Custodia has long championed this integration, and her optimism seems warranted—stablecoins could smooth out some of the volatility plaguing other cryptocurrencies, especially as tariff-related turbulence looms.

My take on this is that the tariffs are a gamble—potentially revitalising US manufacturing but risking higher costs, strained trade relations, and inflation that could squeeze consumers already stretched thin. The market’s initial retreat and the VIX’s jump suggest that investors share my skepticism about the short-term outlook, though the dollar’s strength hints at underlying resilience in the US economy.

In the crypto realm, deregulation and corporate adoption (GameStop, Trump’s platform) signal a maturing industry, yet one still tethered to broader risk sentiment. The stablecoin breakthrough offers a glimmer of hope for stability, but Ethereum’s wobble reminds us that volatility remains a constant.

I can’t help but think about the people behind these numbers—the autoworkers hoping for job security, the investors watching their portfolios, the crypto enthusiasts betting on a decentralised future. The tariffs might protect some livelihoods but raise car prices for millions. The crypto wins might empower innovation but also widen inequality if gains concentrate among the well-connected.

My role here is not to pick winners or losers. What’s clear is that we’re in for a bumpy ride—April 2, when the tariffs kick in, will be just the beginning. For now, I’ll keep watching the data, the markets, and the human stories, because that’s where the real truth lies.

Source: https://e27.co/us-tariffs-vs-crypto-wins-an-economic-shift-20250327/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

March 21st, 2025

Global economy on edge: What it signals for investors amid economic uncertainty

The global financial landscape today, March 21, 2025, is a complex tapestry woven with threads of uncertainty, cautious optimism, and shifting economic priorities. Let’s unpack this and offer my perspective on what’s driving these dynamics, where things might be headed, and what it all means for investors, policymakers, and everyday people keeping an eye on their financial futures.

Global risk sentiment and central bank ambiguity

The global risk sentiment being described as “tentative” feels like an apt reflection of the moment we’re in. Central bank meetings, which are typically a cornerstone for market stability, seem to have left us with more ambiguity than clarity. It’s not uncommon for these gatherings—whether it’s the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, or others—to set the tone for monetary policy expectations, influencing everything from interest rates to currency strength.

But when they raise “more questions than answers,” as the Market Wrap notes, it signals a lack of consensus or a hesitancy to commit to bold moves. Perhaps central bankers are grappling with the same uncertainties as the rest of us: inflationary pressures that refuse to fully subside, geopolitical tensions exacerbated by trade policies, and a global economy that’s still finding its footing post-pandemic.

My take is that this ambiguity is less about indecision and more about a deliberate wait-and-see approach. Central banks are likely holding their cards close, waiting for clearer signals from corporate earnings and trade developments before making significant policy shifts.

Corporate earnings, tariffs, and market reactions

Speaking of corporate earnings, they’re poised to be the next big litmus test for the markets. Investors are hungry for guidance, and rightly so. With tariff fears casting a long shadow, the performance of major companies could either bolster confidence or deepen the unease.

In the US, where the MSCI US index slipped by 0.2 per cent, the energy sector’s modest 0.4 per cent gain stands out as a bright spot. This uptick aligns with the rise in Brent crude prices to US$75 per barrel, fuelled by OPEC+’s new schedule for oil output cuts.

It’s a reminder that energy markets remain a critical driver of sentiment, especially as supply constraints—like the US sanctions on a Chinese refinery tied to Iranian oil—tighten the screws further. For American investors, the upcoming earnings season will be a chance to see if companies can navigate these headwinds, particularly with new tariffs looming on the horizon.

Those tariffs, announced by US President Donald Trump to take effect on April 2, are a game-changer. The promise of both broad reciprocal tariffs and sector-specific measures suggests a continuation of his administration’s aggressive trade stance.

From my perspective, this move is less about economic protectionism in a vacuum and more about geopolitical leverage. Trump’s strategy seems to hinge on using tariffs as a bargaining chip—pressuring trading partners into concessions while signaling strength to domestic audiences. The timing, just over a week from now, adds urgency to the mix.

Markets hate uncertainty, and with Asian equities already showing mixed responses and US equity futures pointing to a flat open, it’s clear that investors are bracing for turbulence. The delay of the European Union’s proposed tariff on American whiskey this week feels like a small reprieve, perhaps a diplomatic nod to avoid escalating tensions further, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to the broader tariff storm brewing.

In China, the focus on bellwethers like Xiaomi Corp. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. is particularly telling. These tech giants have been at the heart of China’s recent stock surge, a rally that’s defied global headwinds to some extent. Investors are now asking whether this momentum is sustainable or if it’s a house of cards built on speculative exuberance.

My view is that China’s market resilience reflects a mix of domestic policy support and a pivot by companies to diversify away from US-centric supply chains—a direct response to past tariff pressures. Xiaomi’s push into emerging markets and Tencent’s dominance in digital ecosystems could provide the earnings firepower needed to keep the rally alive. But if these reports disappoint, it might expose cracks in China’s economic facade, especially as US sanctions and tariffs tighten the noose on key sectors like refining.

Financial indicators and the energy-crypto divide

Shifting to the financial indicators, the US Treasury yields dropping—with the 10-year at 4.24 per cent and the 2-year at 3.96 per cent—suggests a flight to safety amid the uncertainty. Lower yields typically signal that investors are seeking the relative security of government bonds over riskier assets, a trend reinforced by the US Dollar index’s 0.4 per cent gain as it consolidates recent losses. Gold holding firm above US$3,000 per ounce further underscores this cautious mood—it’s the classic safe-haven play.

Yet, there’s a paradox here: Brent crude’s 1.7 per cent rise indicates that not all risk assets are out of favour. My interpretation is that we’re seeing a bifurcated market—energy and commodities holding up due to supply-side dynamics, while equities and bonds reflect broader trepidation about growth prospects.

Now, let’s dive into the cryptocurrency angle, which adds another layer of intrigue. Bitcoin’s market sentiment hitting a two-year low, as per CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index of 20, is a stark warning. This index, blending ten metrics like network activity and investor behaviour, paints a picture of a “weak environment” unlikely to support a sustained rally.

Historically, Bitcoin needs a score above 60 to fuel significant price surges, and prolonged periods below 40 align with bear markets. As someone who’s tracked crypto’s rollercoaster ride, I see this as a natural ebb in the cycle. The euphoria of past bull runs—often tied to macroeconomic stimulus or institutional adoption—has given way to a sober reality.

Regulatory scrutiny, energy cost debates, and now tariff-induced economic uncertainty could be dampening enthusiasm. For Bitcoin holders, this might feel like a gut punch, but it’s not necessarily a death knell. Markets move in waves, and a bearish phase could set the stage for a stronger rebound if fundamentals like adoption or halving effects kick in later.

Ethereum, meanwhile, offers a glimmer of hope amid the gloom. Its price hovering around US$1,970, with a key support level at US$1,861, suggests resilience. The nine per cent recovery earlier this week, followed by a 3.5 per cent dip, shows volatility but also potential. If that US$1,861 support holds, a push toward the March 7 high of US$2,258 isn’t out of the question. The technicals back this up: the RSI climbing to 40 from an oversold 30 indicates fading bearish momentum, though it needs to break 50 for a confirmed recovery.

The MACD’s bullish crossover and rising green histograms above zero add to the case for upward strength. From my standpoint, Ethereum’s outlook hinges on broader market sentiment and its ability to differentiate itself from Bitcoin’s struggles. If tariff fears ease or corporate earnings surprise to the upside, ETH could ride that wave. But a break below US$1,861 would open the door to a drop toward US$1,700—a level that could test the resolve of even the most ardent HODLers.

The interconnectedness of markets

Stepping back, what strikes me most about this Market Wrap is the interconnectedness of it all. Tariffs don’t just affect trade balances; they ripple through equity markets, commodity prices, and even cryptocurrencies. Central bank hesitancy amplifies the noise, leaving corporate earnings as the next beacon.

My point of view is cautiously pragmatic: we’re in a transitional phase where old playbooks—whether for stocks, bonds, or crypto—are being rewritten. Investors should watch China’s tech giants for signs of durability, lean into energy’s relative strength, and brace for tariff-driven volatility. For crypto enthusiasts, patience might be the best strategy—Bitcoin’s malaise and Ethereum’s teetering recovery suggest a market in purgatory, awaiting a catalyst.

In conclusion, the global economy today feels like a tightrope walk. The stakes are high, and the safety net is fraying. I see my role as cutting through the noise to spotlight the data and trends that matter. Right now, that means recognising the weight of tariffs, the pivotal role of earnings, and the fragile state of risk assets like crypto.

We’re not in freefall, but we’re not on solid ground either—April 2, when those tariffs hit, could be the tipping point that defines the next chapter.

Source: https://e27.co/global-economy-on-edge-what-it-signals-for-investors-amid-economic-uncertainty-20250321/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

March 10th, 2025

US economic fears and Bitcoin: Saylor’s US$16T reserve plan

As I reflect on the complex interplay of global financial dynamics, US economic indicators, and the bold proposal for a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve championed by Michael Saylor, I find myself intrigued and cautious about the implications for investors, markets, and the broader economy.

The recent pullback in global risk sentiment, driven by concerns over the US economy’s health, paints a picture of uncertainty that resonates deeply with the volatile movements in Bitcoin and other asset classes. Treasury yields have been falling across all maturities since mid-January as investors flock to the safety of fixed-income assets, signalling a shift toward risk aversion, with havens like the yen and Swiss franc gaining ground.

At the same time, the US dollar experiences its longest losing streak. This backdrop of faltering confidence in US economic outperformance and mixed signals from employment data—non-farm payrolls rising by 151,000 in February but the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.1 per cent—creates a fragile foundation for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The data from China further complicates the global economic outlook. Consumer inflation falling below zero for the first time in 13 months, amid persistent deflationary pressures, underscores weakening demand and raises concerns about the health of the world’s second-largest economy. This, in turn, has a ripple effect on commodities like Brent crude, which hovers around US$70 per barrel despite a modest 1.3 per cent uptick, as weak Chinese economic data dampens oil demand expectations.

Meanwhile, US equity markets show resilience, with the MSCI US index edging up 0.5 per cent and Utilities outperforming at 1.9 per cent. Still, the slight rise in US Treasury yields—10-year at 4.30 per cent and 2-year at 4.00 per cent—and a continued decline in the U.S. Dollar Index by 0.2 per cent suggest lingering growth worries.

Gold, maintaining upward momentum toward US$3,000 per ounce despite a minor 0.1 per cent dip, reflects its role as a safe-haven asset amid this uncertainty. The mixed performance of Asian equities and the implied 0.4 per cent lower opening for US stock index futures further highlight the cautious mood permeating global markets.

Against this backdrop, Michael Saylor’s proposal for the US government to acquire 25 per cent of Bitcoin’s total supply—approximately 5.3 million BTC—by 2035 to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve feels both visionary and audacious. Presented at the White House Crypto Summit, where President Donald Trump endorsed a “never sell your Bitcoin” policy and issued an executive order prohibiting the sale of Bitcoin held in reserve, Saylor’s plan suggests a systematic acquisition of 5-25 per cent of Bitcoin’s daily supply between 2025 and 2035.

By that time, with 99 per cent of Bitcoin’s 21 million total supply already issued, the US would hold a significant portion of the cryptocurrency, potentially generating US$16 trillion to US$81 trillion by 2045, according to Saylor’s projections. He argues this could help reduce the national debt, which, as noted in recent World Bank reports, has ballooned globally due to crisis responses like those during the COVID-19 pandemic, raising concerns about sustainability, especially in emerging economies.

From my perspective, Saylor’s proposal is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it could catalyse broader institutional adoption of Bitcoin, as governments and corporations might follow the US lead, legitimising cryptocurrencies in mainstream finance. The executive order’s prohibition on selling Bitcoin could stabilise its long-term value by reducing supply pressure, potentially driving prices higher as demand grows.

This aligns with Saylor’s vision of Bitcoin as a “property in cyberspace,” akin to strategic reserves of gold, oil, or grain, as historical examples cited by Saylor—like the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve established in 1975—demonstrate.

The idea of the US asserting geopolitical influence through digital asset holdings, as suggested in reports from CoinDesk and Reuters, could position the country as a leader in setting global crypto standards, fostering innovation, and countering the dominance of other nations or entities in the digital economy.

However, the practicality and risks of this plan are significant. Bitcoin’s price volatility, evidenced by its recent 5 per cent drop to around US$80,000 following Trump’s executive order, underscores the challenges of integrating it into a national strategic reserve. As noted in the Bitcoin price decline, the disappointment among investors suggests skepticism about the reserve’s immediate impact, especially amid broader market uncertainty.

Bitcoin’s history of sharp corrections—like the 30 per cent drop from January 2025 levels, as mentioned in X posts from analysts like @JacobKinge—highlights its immaturity as a stable store of value compared to traditional assets. The crypto market’s “Extreme Fear” sentiment, reflected in the Fear & Greed Index dropping to levels seen during the 2020 COVID-19 crash and the 2022 market bottom, as reported by @inmortalcrypto and @APompliano, indicates that investor confidence is fragile, potentially exacerbated by large government purchases that could distort market dynamics.

Moreover, the logistics of acquiring such a substantial portion of Bitcoin’s supply—up to 25 per cent—over a decade are daunting. With a current market cap of over US$1.6 trillion (based on a US$80,000 price per BTC), purchasing 5.3 million BTC could cost upwards of US$424 billion, though Saylor’s gradual approach might mitigate price inflation.

However, as noted in Reuters’ coverage, large-scale government purchases could outsize Bitcoin’s price, especially given its relatively low trading volume compared to traditional markets. The inclusion of other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, as Trump hinted, adds further complexity, as smaller tokens like Cardano and XRP have even lower liquidity, potentially amplifying volatility. Cybersecurity risks, as mentioned in web analyses, also loom large, given Bitcoin wallets’ vulnerability to hacks, raising questions about the feasibility of securing such a reserve.

The broader economic context complicates matters further. The US government’s fiscal position, with rising national debt concerns outlined in the World Development Report 2022 and U.S. News articles on potential 2025 stock market risks, suggests that allocating billions to Bitcoin could be contentious.

Critics might argue that funds could be better directed toward infrastructure and social programs or to stabilise traditional markets amid faltering growth and persistent inflation, which remains above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 per cent, at 3 per cent, according to US News. The Fed’s reluctance to cut rates significantly, as noted in US Bank’s analysis of the yield curve, and the potential for recession signals—like an inverted yield curve, though currently fading—could heighten opposition to such a speculative investment.

On the positive side, Saylor’s comparison to historical US strategic purchases—like the Louisiana Purchase or Alaska acquisition, which yielded massive long-term returns—offers a compelling narrative. If Bitcoin follows a trajectory similar to its 2017 cycle, as suggested by @rovercrc on X, it could see exponential growth, justifying the reserve’s creation.

The Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance, reinforced by the White House Crypto Summit and Saylor’s participation, could also attract institutional investors, boosting market confidence and regulatory clarity, as seen in the proposed Lummis bill for a Bitcoin reserve. This could align with broader trends of digital asset integration, as evidenced by El Salvador’s past Bitcoin adoption. However, its recent project cessation highlights the risks of over-reliance on crypto.

Ultimately, I see Saylor’s proposal as a high-stakes gamble with transformative potential but significant risks. The current market environment—marked by US economic uncertainty, global deflationary pressures, and Bitcoin’s volatility—suggests caution is warranted.

While the idea of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could position the US as a crypto leader and generate enormous returns, it could also strain public finances, destabilise markets, and expose the government to unprecedented risks. I’d advocate for thorough public debate, rigorous economic modelling, and pilot programs to test the feasibility before committing to such an ambitious plan. The recent Bitcoin price drop to US$80,000, coupled with investor disappointment, serves as a stark reminder that crypto’s promise is tempered by its unpredictability, making Saylor’s vision both inspiring and, at this moment, daunting.

Source: https://e27.co/us-economic-fears-and-bitcoin-saylors-us16t-reserve-plan-20250310/