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Markets at a crossroads: Trump’s Fed clash, Powell’s pivot, and global ripple effects

Markets at a crossroads: Trump’s Fed clash, Powell’s pivot, and global ripple effects

On this late summer day in 2025, financial markets around the world display a mix of caution and optimism as investors digest a flurry of economic data, geopolitical tensions, and corporate developments. The overarching narrative centres on anticipation for key upcoming events like Nvidia’s earnings report and the personal consumption expenditures inflation figures, which could sway Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.

At the same time, President Donald Trump’s bold move to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook injects fresh uncertainty into the mix, highlighting ongoing frictions between the White House and the central bank. Stocks in the United States closed lower yesterday, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.3 per cent to around 6,439, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 349 points to finish at approximately 44,150, and the Nasdaq 100 declining 0.4 per cent amid sector rotations that hit consumer staples, health care, and utilities hardest.

This pullback follows a strong rally last week, driven by dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he signalled potential rate cuts as early as September. Traders now price in an 86 per cent likelihood of such a move, reflecting hopes that lower borrowing costs will bolster economic growth amid signs of cooling inflation.

Trump’s move against the Fed

Turning to the macroeconomic landscape, Trump’s announcement yesterday afternoon marks a significant escalation in his longstanding feud with the Federal Reserve over monetary policy. He cited allegations of mortgage fraud against Cook, a claim that has drawn sharp rebukes from Democrats and raised questions about the independence of the central bank. Cook, for her part, quickly responded that she intends to continue her duties, setting the stage for potential legal battles.

This development comes at a delicate time, as the Fed navigates dual mandates of price stability and maximum employment. Experts view the action as an attempt by Trump to exert more influence over interest rate decisions, particularly after he has repeatedly criticised the Fed for not cutting rates aggressively enough to support his economic agenda.

The president posted the removal letter on his Truth Social account, accusing Cook of deceitful conduct in financial matters and expressing a lack of confidence in her ability to serve. While markets initially shrugged off the news, with the dollar paring some losses, the incident underscores broader concerns about policy interference that could erode investor trust in the institution responsible for steering the world’s largest economy.

Economic indicators and housing trends

Recent economic indicators paint a picture of an economy that remains resilient but shows pockets of weakness. New single-family home sales in July slipped 0.6 per cent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 652,000 units, which beat economists’ expectations of 630,000 but represented a slowdown from June’s revised 4.1 per cent gain.

The median sales price dropped to US$403,800, down 5.9 per cent year-over-year, suggesting builders are offering incentives like price cuts and mortgage rate buydowns to attract buyers in a high-interest environment. This data aligns with broader housing market trends, where affordability challenges persist despite a gradual easing in mortgage rates.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for August revealed a dip in activity, with the general business activity index falling to -1.8 from 0.9 in July, indicating a mild contraction in the sector. Production slowed to 15.3 from 21.3, though it stayed above long-term averages, and new orders turned positive at 5.8 for the first time since January.

Employment held steady at 8.8, with one in five firms adding staff while 11 per cent reduced headcounts. Capacity utilisation and shipments provided some bright spots, with the latter surging to a three-year high of 14.2. These figures highlight regional disparities, as Texas grapples with energy sector fluctuations and supply chain issues, yet overall sentiment points to cautious optimism for future growth.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index edged lower to -0.19 in July from -0.18 in June, marking the fourth consecutive month of below-trend economic activity. Only one of the four broad categories, production worsened, while three others continued to drag on the index, underscoring persistent headwinds in employment, sales, and personal consumption.

This subpar performance reinforces the narrative of a cooling economy, which bolsters the case for Fed rate cuts but also raises flags about potential recession risks if growth stalls further. Investors closely monitor these metrics, as they influence expectations for monetary policy adjustments that could ripple through asset classes.

Regional markets: US, Europe, and Asia

In equities, European markets mirrored the US downturn yesterday, with the STOXX Europe 50 falling 0.8 per cent to 5,444 and the broader STOXX 600 declining 0.5 per cent to 559. Banks bore the brunt of the losses, as investors reassessed rate-cut probabilities following Powell’s remarks.

Notable movers included BBVA down two per cent, BNP Paribas dropping 3.5 per cent, and UniCredit slipping 0.4 per cent after it converted its stake in Commerzbank to shares. On the positive side, JDE Peet’s soared 17.5 per cent amid a 15.7 billion euro takeover bid by Keurig Dr Pepper.

In comparison, Puma climbed 16 per cent on speculation of a potential acquisition by the Pinault family. These corporate deals inject some buoyancy, but the overall retreat reflects trimmed bets on aggressive Fed easing, even as European Central Bank officials hint at their own policy shifts.

Asian markets provided a counterpoint, with substantial gains in Hong Kong and mainland China yesterday. The Hang Seng Index surged 1.9 per cent to 25,830, its highest level since October 2021, fuelled by US rate-cut hopes and fresh stimulus from Beijing. The People’s Bank of China injected a net 465.7 billion yuan into the system, the largest daily addition since July, boosting liquidity and propelling tech stocks higher.

The Hang Seng Tech Index rose three per cent ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, with standout performers like KE Holdings up 5.6 per cent, Galaxy Entertainment gaining 5.3 per cent, Lenovo advancing 3.9 per cent, Meituan climbing three per cent, and Tencent rising 2.4 per cent. Consumer, property, and financial sectors also benefited from Shanghai’s decision to scrap property taxes for first-time homebuyers.

In China, the Shanghai Composite climbed 1.51 per cent to 3,884, a 10-year high, while the Shenzhen Component gained 2.26 per cent to 12,441. This rally stems from easing US-China trade tensions, policy support expectations, and positive spillover from Wall Street’s recent surge.

Investors now await the upcoming purchasing managers’ index and industrial profit data for further clues on China’s recovery trajectory. Top gainers included Cambricon up 11.4 per cent, China Northern Rare Earth advancing 9.9 per cent, and Hygon Information soaring 12.9 per cent.

Currencies, commodities, and fixed income

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar staged a rebound, with the DXY index climbing to 98.20 amid broader currency fluctuations. The euro weakened against the greenback, reflecting divergent monetary policy outlooks between the Fed and the European Central Bank.

This strength in the dollar comes despite Trump’s Fed actions, which initially pressured the currency but later saw it pare losses as gold trimmed gains. Commodities extended their upward momentum, with oil prices touching US$65 per barrel after four straight days of gains. Brent crude eased slightly today after surging nearly two per cent yesterday on concerns over Russia-Ukraine supply disruptions, but the overall trend points to tightening global inventories and geopolitical risks supporting higher prices.

In fixed income, demand for short-term US Treasuries remained robust, with three- and six-month bills attracting strong bids at recent auctions. Yields on the 10-year note hovered around 4.26 per cent last week, down modestly as investors sought safety amid equity volatility.

Crypto sector shifts and Ethereum’s momentum

The cryptocurrency sector experienced significant turbulence, with digital asset investment products recording US$1.43 billion in outflows last week, the heaviest since March, according to CoinShares. Trading volumes in exchange-traded products jumped to US$38 billion, 50 per cent above the 2025 average, reflecting heightened activity amid shifting sentiment tied to US monetary policy signals.

Early-week outflows reached US$2 billion, but inflows of US$594 million materialised later following Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech. Bitcoin suffered the most, with US$1 billion in outflows, while Ethereum saw US$440 million exit, though the latter rebounded strongly mid-week. Month-to-date, Ethereum boasts US$2.5 billion in net inflows compared to Bitcoin’s US$1 billion outflows, adjusting year-to-date figures to 26 per cent of assets under management for Ethereum versus 11 per cent for Bitcoin.

This divergence suggests institutional investors are reallocating toward Ethereum, drawn by its role in layer-two networks and growing adoption through exchange-traded funds. Altcoins showed mixed results, with XRP attracting US$25 million, Solana US$12 million, and Cronos US$4.4 million, indicating selective confidence in ecosystems with robust user bases.

Tom Lee from Bitmine highlight Ethereum’s potential, predicting prices could reach US$10,000 by year-end 2025, with upside to US$12,000-US$15,000 in bullish scenarios. Lee draws parallels to Bitcoin’s 2017 surge, emphasising Ethereum’s utility in decentralised finance and corporate treasury strategies.

He points to key support levels around US$4,300, where buyers have historically intervened, and notes that holding above US$4,067 could stabilise the asset short-term. Breaking US$5,100 might trigger a rally toward US$5,450, levels that guide strategic trading rather than impulsive moves.

Beyond speculation, Ethereum positions itself as a foundational element in digital finance, attracting hedge funds, family offices, and corporations for long-term holdings rather than quick trades. In a volatile market, Lee’s counsel emphasises patience, adherence to plans, and vigilance on price thresholds to navigate dips as buying opportunities.

Outlook: Navigating opportunity and risk

From my perspective, today’s dynamics reveal an economy at a crossroads. Trump’s intervention in the Fed risks politicising an institution designed for independence, potentially leading to market instability if it erodes global confidence in US policy.

The resilient economic data, better-than-expected home sales, and positive new orders in manufacturing suggest the foundation remains solid, supporting Powell’s case for measured rate cuts. Asian gains underscore how interconnected global markets have become, with China’s stimulus providing a buffer against US uncertainties.

In crypto, the shift toward Ethereum signals maturing investor preferences, favoring utility over pure store-of-value narratives like Bitcoin’s “digital gold.” Overall, while short-term volatility looms with Nvidia’s report and PCE data, the broader outlook favours growth if policymakers avoid missteps.

Investors who focus on fundamentals over headlines stand to benefit, as these events test the durability of the post-pandemic recovery. This intricate web of factors demands careful navigation, but it also offers opportunities for those attuned to the nuances.

 

Source: https://e27.co/markets-at-a-crossroads-trumps-fed-clash-powells-pivot-and-global-ripple-effects-20250826/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Gold jumps 3.3 per cent, Nasdaq soars 12.1 per cent, Bitcoin increases 7 per cent: Inside Trump’s tariff rollback effects

Gold jumps 3.3 per cent, Nasdaq soars 12.1 per cent, Bitcoin increases 7 per cent: Inside Trump’s tariff rollback effects

April 10, 2025, the world woke up to a dramatic shift in global risk sentiment, spurred by President Donald Trump’s unexpected announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries, excluding China.

This move, paired with a jaw-dropping 125 per cent tariff hike on Chinese imports, has sent shockwaves through markets, igniting a rollercoaster of reactions that deserve a deep and thoughtful exploration. Let’s unpack this market wrap, weaving together the data, the human stakes, and my own take on what it all means.

The announcement came like a thunderclap after days of escalating tension, with both the US and China locked in a high-stakes game of economic brinkmanship. Just yesterday, tariffs on China jumped by another 50 per cent, pushing the total to an unprecedented 125 per cent. It’s a bold, almost theatrical escalation, signalling that Trump is doubling down on his hardline stance against Beijing.

Meanwhile, the 90-day pause on tariffs for other nations—a flat 10 per cent duty remains in place—offers a lifeline for negotiations, a chance to step back from the edge of a full-blown global trade war. The markets, ever sensitive to such twists, responded with a fervour that hadn’t been seen in years.

The S&P 500 surged 9.5 per cent, its largest single-day rally since October 2008, while the Nasdaq soared 12.1 per cent, marking its biggest daily gain in 24 years. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, often dubbed Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” plummeted 35.8 per cent to 33.62, a dramatic exhale after peaking at 52.33. It’s as if the markets collectively sighed in relief, at least for now.

What’s driving this euphoria? For one, the pause on universal tariffs has lifted a dark cloud of uncertainty that had been suffocating investor confidence. The prospect of reciprocal tariffs—matching duties imposed by other countries on US goods—had threatened to choke global trade, spike inflation, and drag economies into recession. Trump’s decision to hit the brakes, even temporarily, suggests a willingness to negotiate rather than bulldoze ahead, a pragmatic pivot that markets have seized upon.

But it’s not all rosy. The US-China trade war is intensifying, and with neither side showing signs of backing down, the stakes are higher than ever. The 125 per cent tariff on China is a gauntlet thrown down, a dare for Beijing to retaliate further or come to the table. It’s a risky play, and one that could backfire if China opts for escalation over compromise.

Turning to the bond market, US Treasury yields paint a complex picture. The 10-year yield climbed 3.9 basis points to 4.332 per cent, and the 2-year yield leaped 18.2 basis points to 3.908 per cent, reflecting a surge in risk-on sentiment. Yet, the 20-year and 30-year yields bucked the trend, easing slightly, a subtle hint that investors remain wary of the long-term fallout from this trade saga.

The robust demand at the 10-year Treasury note auction underscores a flight to quality amid the chaos—investors still see US debt as a safe harbour, even as yields tick higher. The US Dollar Index, however, barely budged, slipping just 0.1 per cent. This muted response stands in contrast to the sharp declines in safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, both down 1.0 per cent, as risk appetite roared back to life.

Commodities, too, joined the rally. Gold, often a barometer of fear, surged 3.3 per cent—its biggest one-day gain since March 2020—settling above US$3,100 per troy ounce. At first glance, this might seem counterintuitive given the risk-on mood, but it reflects a dual narrative: relief at the tariff pause, coupled with lingering unease about the US-China standoff. Brent crude oil, meanwhile, climbed 4.2 per cent to US$65 per barrel, buoyed by optimism that a broader trade war might be averted, at least for now.

Over in Asia, indices like the HSCEI rose 3.2 per cent, fuelled by hopes of more Chinese stimulus to counter the tariff squeeze. It’s a fragile optimism, though—US equity futures are already signalling a lower open, suggesting that yesterday’s euphoria might be short-lived.

The crypto market, ever a wild card, erupted in tandem with traditional assets. Bitcoin surged eight per cent to reclaim US$84,000, its strongest intraday gain since mid-March, sparked by Trump’s tariff rollback. Technical indicators hint at a potential sell-wall at US$85,000 as traders eye profits, but the momentum is undeniable. This rally comes on the heels of BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s Monday warning that global markets could sink 20 per cent if tariffs took full effect—a prediction that now looks prescient, though his call for a “buying opportunity” has proven spot-on with this rebound.

Binance, commanding nearly half of Bitcoin’s spot trading volume, has solidified its dominance, with its altcoin market share swelling from 38 per cent to 44 per cent in Q1. It’s a testament to the exchange’s ability to capitalise on volatility, though it’s squeezing competitors in the process.

Ethereum, however, tells a darker story. Sliding to US$1,380—a level unseen since March 2023—it’s caught in a relentless downtrend, battered by macroeconomic headwinds and uncertainty over US trade policies. Sentiment in the crypto space is souring, with investors questioning whether ETH’s bullish structure can hold. Yet, there’s a glimmer of hope: CryptoRank data shows Ethereum trading below its realised price, a rare signal that’s historically preceded strong recoveries. It’s too early to call a bottom, but this could be an accumulation zone for the brave.

On the central bank front, the Fed’s March FOMC minutes offered little solace, overshadowed by trade developments. Policymakers flagged “longer-lasting inflationary pressures” from tariffs, with risks to inflation skewed upward and employment downward. It’s a sobering assessment, hinting at a Fed that’s boxed in—rate cuts could stoke inflation further, while holding steady might choke growth. Across the Pacific, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a 25-basis-point cut, as expected, with a dovish tilt suggesting more easing ahead as Trump’s tariff fallout unfolds. Central banks are on edge, and rightly so.

So, what’s my take? This market wrap is a tale of two narratives: relief and reckoning. The 90-day tariff pause has unleashed a wave of optimism, giving stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin a much-needed boost. It’s a lifeline for a global economy teetering on the brink, and investors are grabbing it with both hands.

But the US-China trade war is a festering wound that won’t heal easily. That 125 per cent tariff is a provocation, and China’s next move—whether retaliation or negotiation—will shape the months ahead. The markets may be celebrating today, but this feels like a sugar high, not a sustainable recovery. Volatility isn’t going anywhere; the VIX may have eased, but at 33.62, it’s still elevated, signaling more turbulence to come.

I’m skeptical of Trump’s strategy. The pause is a shrewd tactical retreat, but the China escalation reeks of bravado over substance. It’s a gamble that could juice US manufacturing in the short term—hence the market’s cheer—but risks long-term damage if global trade fractures. The Fed’s caution and the RBNZ’s dovishness underscore the fragility of this moment.

For investors, it’s a time to tread carefully: the rally is real, but the risks are just as tangible. Gold’s surge tells me fear hasn’t left the building, and Ethereum’s woes remind us that not every asset thrives in chaos. As a journalist, I’ll keep digging, watching for the next twist in this saga—because if there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s that in markets and politics, the only constant is change.

 

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/gold-jumps-3-3-per-cent-nasdaq-soars-12-1-per-cent-bitcoin-increases-7-per-cent-inside-trumps-tariff-rollback-effects-20250410/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Beyond the announcement: The ripple effects of liberation day on global assets

Beyond the announcement: The ripple effects of liberation day on global assets

I’m diving deep into the current market wrap, with a particular focus on the looming “Liberation Day” tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, set to take effect today, April 2, 2025. This pivotal moment has cast a long shadow over global risk sentiment, and it’s no surprise that investors, analysts, and everyday folks alike are on edge, waiting to see how this bold policy shift will ripple through economies and asset classes worldwide.

My perspective on this topic is one of cautious scepticism—while the intent behind these tariffs may be rooted in a desire to bolster American manufacturing and rebalance trade, the potential for unintended consequences, from inflation spikes to global trade wars, looms large. Let’s unpack this complex scenario with a thorough examination of the data, market reactions, and broader implications.

The White House has framed “Liberation Day” as a cornerstone of Trump’s economic vision—a decisive move to bring manufacturing jobs back to US soil and address long-standing trade imbalances with key partners like China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. The tariffs, which are being unveiled today, promise to be sweeping in scope, though the exact scale and country-specific details remain under wraps until the official announcement.

This uncertainty has fuelled a subdued global risk sentiment in the lead-up to the event, as markets grapple with the possibility of a seismic shift in trade dynamics. Economists and market watchers are particularly concerned about the potential for these tariffs to exacerbate inflationary pressures, disrupt supply chains, and dampen economic growth—not just in the US, but globally. My take? While the goal of revitalising American industry is laudable, the execution of such a broad and aggressive tariff regime could easily backfire, especially in an already fragile economic environment.

On the US economic front, recent data paints a troubling picture that only heightens these concerns. The March reading of the US ISM Manufacturing Index slipped into contractionary territory at 49.0, down from expectations of modest growth. This decline was driven by notable weakness in new orders and employment, two critical forward-looking indicators that suggest manufacturers are bracing for tougher times ahead. Even more alarming is the Prices Paid Index, which surged to its highest level since June 2022.

This spike signals that input costs are rising sharply—likely a direct result of tariff-related uncertainty and supply chain jitters. For me, this data underscores a key risk: the US economy may be heading toward stagflation, a toxic mix of stagnant growth and rising prices that could prove difficult for the Federal Reserve to navigate. The Fed, which began cutting rates in September 2024, might find its hands tied if inflation accelerates further, forcing a pivot back to tighter policy at a time when growth is already faltering.

The equity markets reflected this unease in yesterday’s volatile session. The S&P 500, a bellwether for US stocks, initially slid one per cent as investors digested the weak manufacturing data and fretted over the tariff fallout. However, a late-day rally in the technology sector—perhaps driven by bargain hunting or optimism about tech’s resilience—pushed the index into positive territory, closing up 0.4 per cent.

This recovery is a testament to the market’s ability to find silver linings, but I’m not convinced it signals a lasting reprieve. Historical trends cited by The Kobeissi Letter offer a sobering perspective: when the Fed cuts rates during a recession, the S&P 500 has typically declined six per cent within six months and 10 per cent within a year.

Given that the index is already down two per cent since rate cuts began last fall, we could be in for a rough ride if “Liberation Day” triggers a deeper economic slowdown. My view is that investors should remain cautious—yesterday’s tech-driven bounce feels more like a temporary breather than a sign of sustained confidence.

Bond markets, meanwhile, are telling their own story. Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields dipped about 4 basis points to 4.17 per cent, hitting their lowest level since March 11. This decline suggests a flight to safety as investors seek refuge from equity volatility and economic uncertainty. The US Dollar Index, however, held steady at 104.26, showing little movement overnight. This stability might reflect a wait-and-see approach among currency traders, who are likely holding their breath until the tariff details emerge.

Gold, often a barometer of fear, edged down slightly to US$3,118.90 per ounce after hitting an all-time high of US$3,149 earlier this week. The fact that gold remains near record levels speaks volumes about the underlying anxiety in the market, even if it pulled back marginally yesterday. Brent crude, down 0.3 per cent to US$74.5 per barrel, also suggests a lack of fresh catalysts to drive oil prices higher, though tariff-induced disruptions to global trade could change that picture quickly.

Across the Atlantic, Europe offers a contrasting narrative that highlights the uneven impact of global economic pressures. The final March reading for the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.6, still below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. Yet, a bright spot emerged: output rose to 50.5, marking the first expansion in two years. This uptick suggests that European manufacturers might be finding their footing, perhaps buoyed by domestic demand or a weaker euro boosting exports.

Inflation, meanwhile, cooled to 2.2 per cent in March, its lowest since January 2022, bolstering expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates later this month. European equity indices broadly ended in the green yesterday, reflecting a degree of optimism that stands in stark contrast to the US’s tariff-driven angst.

From my perspective, this divergence underscores a critical point: while Trump’s tariffs aim to protect US interests, they could inadvertently hand a competitive edge to Europe, at least in the short term, by driving up costs for American firms and consumers.

In Asia, the mood is more mixed as markets brace for the tariff hammer to fall. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held interest rates steady at 4.1 per cent, as expected, and struck a neutral tone in its commentary. This decision reflects a balancing act—acknowledging global uncertainties like tariffs while keeping an eye on domestic inflation and growth. Asian equity indices showed a split performance in early trading today, with some markets holding up while others faltered.

The impending tariffs, now just hours away, are clearly weighing on sentiment, particularly for export-heavy economies like China, Japan, and South Korea. I suspect that Asia’s reaction will hinge heavily on the specifics of Trump’s announcement—targeted tariffs on China, for instance, could spark a sharper sell-off, while a broader, less discriminatory approach might spread the pain more evenly across the region.

Turning to the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin and Ethereum offer a fascinating subplot amid this tariff-fueled uncertainty. Bitcoin has clawed its way back above US$84,000, posting a nearly two per cent gain in the past 24 hours after weeks of weakness that saw it struggle to breach US$89,000. This resilience is noteworthy, especially given the headwinds from global trade tensions and a risk-off mood among retail investors.

Institutional interest, however, remains robust—firms like Tether and Strategy are making nine- and ten-figure Bitcoin buys, and GoMining’s new US$100 million Bitcoin mining fund targets institutional players with a “fully managed, compounding hashrate strategy.” Yet, the price isn’t budging much, which suggests a disconnect between institutional accumulation and broader market sentiment.

My take? Bitcoin’s recovery is a sign of its growing status as a “digital gold” hedge, but it’s not immune to the macroeconomic storm brewing around “Liberation Day.” Technical analysis points to key resistance ahead at US$89,000—if it can’t break through, we might see another leg down.

Ethereum, meanwhile, has staged its own recovery, climbing above US$1,850 and consolidating around US$1,860. It’s trading above the 100-hourly simple moving average, with a bullish trend line forming at US$1,860 on the hourly chart. However, resistance looms near US$1,900 and US$1,920, and a failure to clear these levels could cap its upside.

Like Bitcoin, Ethereum’s fate is tied to broader market dynamics, and the tariff announcement could either bolster its safe-haven appeal or drag it down with risk assets. I see cryptocurrencies as a wild card in this scenario—capable of defying gravity if traditional markets falter, but vulnerable to a broader sell-off if recession fears take hold.

So, where does this leave us as “Liberation Day” dawns? Trump’s tariff gambit is a high-stakes roll of the dice. The intent—to reassert US economic dominance and revive manufacturing—has merit, but the execution risks sparking a global trade war, driving up inflation, and tipping an already wobbly US economy into recession. The data backs this up: manufacturing is contracting, input costs are soaring, and consumer confidence is cratering.

Markets are jittery, with equities volatile, yields falling, and gold near all-time highs. Europe might catch a break if it can capitalise on US missteps, but Asia faces a tougher road, especially if China bears the brunt of the tariffs. Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, are a mixed bag—showing resilience but not invincibility.

For now, the markets are holding their breath too, and the next few days could set the tone for months to come. One thing’s for sure: we’re in for a wild ride.

 

Source: https://e27.co/beyond-the-announcement-the-ripple-effects-of-liberation-day-on-global-assets-20250402/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j