Tag Archives: etfs

Fed decision looms: Crypto cracks under US$3.07T as ETFs bleed US$3.47B in one month

Fed decision looms: Crypto cracks under US$3.07T as ETFs bleed US$3.47B in one month

The crypto market’s recent pullback reflects a confluence of macro headwinds, institutional caution, and technical fragility, all unfolding against the tense anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision. While the 0.87 per cent drop over the past 24 hours appears modest on the surface, it contributes to a deeper 30-day decline of 10.72 per cent, signalling a sustained period of risk aversion rather than a fleeting correction.

This deterioration stems primarily from three interlocking dynamics: large-scale institutional selling, recalibrated monetary policy expectations, and a technical breakdown that has eroded market confidence. Each of these forces not only weighs on short-term price action but also reshapes the strategic calculus for both institutional allocators and retail participants navigating this transitional phase.

Institutional behaviour has shifted decisively bearish in recent weeks. Galaxy Digital, a bellwether firm led by Mike Novogratz, has been at the centre of this trend, transferring 900 BTC valued at approximately US$81.6 million to a newly created wallet, likely linked to an exchange. This transaction aligns with a broader pattern of distribution, including a reported sale of 2,800 BTC worth roughly US$250 million as Bitcoin traded below US$90,000 in mid-November. Such moves signal that major players are taking profits or hedging against further downside, removing a key pillar of support that had previously underpinned the market during rallies.

The outflows extend beyond on-chain movements into regulated financial products. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, once the poster child of institutional adoption, has experienced record redemptions, shedding US$2.3 billion in November alone. Cumulative outflows across US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached US$3.47 billion for the month, dragging total Bitcoin ETF assets under management down to US$122.92 billion, an 11.5 per cent decline from October levels. This withdrawal of institutional capital directly weakens demand at a time when macro uncertainty demands liquidity and flexibility.

Compounding this selling pressure, expectations for Federal Reserve easing have significantly cooled. Markets now price in just 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2026, a notable retreat from the 100 basis points anticipated a month prior. This repricing reflects a more hawkish stance from Fed officials and resilient US economic data, which together have dampened hopes for a dovish pivot in the near term. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that while a 25 basis point cut in the December FOMC meeting remains probable, the path forward appears less certain and more data-dependent than previously assumed.

This tightening of financial conditions translates directly into lower risk appetite across all asset classes, with speculative assets like cryptocurrencies feeling the heat first and most acutely. A critical counterbalance has emerged from the regulatory front. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission launched a landmark pilot program on December 8, 2025, that officially permits Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC to be used as margin collateral in US derivatives markets.

This development is a major structural win for the industry, as it formally integrates digital assets into the core plumbing of traditional finance. While this news provides a long-term tailwind by enhancing capital efficiency and institutional utility, its immediate impact is muted against the overwhelming force of macro caution and profit-taking.

From a technical perspective, the market structure has also deteriorated. The total crypto market capitalisation, now hovering around US$3.07 trillion, has traded below both its 7-day and 30-day simple moving averages of US$3.09 trillion and US$3.12 trillion, respectively. This breakdown below key trendlines confirms the shift from a bullish to a bearish short-term bias. Furthermore, the composition of the market reveals a flight to relative safety within the crypto ecosystem itself. Bitcoin dominance has climbed to 58.56 per cent, its highest level in recent months, while altcoin dominance has collapsed to 29.25 per cent, a 12-month low.

The rotation suggests that even among those holding crypto, capital is consolidating into Bitcoin as the primary store of value, abandoning more speculative altcoins. This dynamic is particularly concerning because a healthy bull market typically requires broad-based participation across the asset class, not just strength in the flagship asset. The current setup leaves the market vulnerable to a deeper liquidation cascade if Bitcoin fails to hold critical support levels, such as the US$89,500 mark, which has become a key psychological and technical floor.

The broader macro environment provides additional context. US equities retreated ahead of the Fed decision, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posting losses, while Treasury yields continued their upward march, with the 10-year yield breaching 4.16 per cent. In a curious but strategically significant development, former President Donald Trump granted Nvidia permission to export its advanced H200 AI chips to China, contingent on a 25 per cent surcharge paid to the US government.

Looking at this move, while seemingly isolated to the semiconductor sector, injects a complex geopolitical variable into the market, highlighting the ongoing tension between technological decoupling and commercial pragmatism. For the crypto market, which is highly correlated with tech stocks and risk sentiment, any development that introduces new uncertainty or shifts the global liquidity outlook is a material factor.

In conclusion, the crypto market finds itself at a critical juncture, caught between the immediate pressures of institutional de-risking and a less accommodative monetary policy outlook, and the long-term promise of deeper institutional integration through initiatives like the CFTC’s collateral pilot. The current consolidation is not merely a price correction but a fundamental reassessment of the drivers of value in a new macro regime.

The path forward hinges almost entirely on the Federal Reserve’s communication in its upcoming announcement. A dovish tilt could spark a powerful relief rally, drawing capital back from the sidelines and potentially pushing the total market cap toward the US$3.25 trillion range.

A hawkish surprise or a higher for longer message would likely accelerate the current downtrend, testing major Fibonacci support levels around US$2.89 trillion. Until that clarity emerges, the market will remain in a state of cautious limbo, with Bitcoin’s ability to defend its key support levels serving as the primary indicator of whether this is a pause in a larger bull run or the beginning of a more protracted bear phase.

Source: https://e27.co/fed-decision-looms-crypto-cracks-under-us3-07t-as-etfs-bleed-us3-47b-in-one-month-20251209/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Crypto’s fragile comeback: Oversold RSI, Solana ETFs, and the US$86K Bitcoin test

Crypto’s fragile comeback: Oversold RSI, Solana ETFs, and the US$86K Bitcoin test

Digital assets climbed 1.93 per cent, recovering from a steep seven-day slide that saw the sector shed 8.53 per cent of its value. This bounceback came against a broader backdrop of risk aversion. The S&P 500 fell 0.83 per cent, the NASDAQ dropped 1.21 per cent amid AI valuation concerns, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.07 per cent. The caution permeating traditional markets has spilt over into crypto, yet structural developments within the digital asset space, particularly around Solana, Binance, and technical positioning, provided enough tailwind for a short-term recovery.

The most potent catalyst emerged from the institutional front: the launch of spot Solana exchange-traded funds. Fidelity and Canary Capital debuted their Solana ETFs, FSOL and SOLC, on the NYSE and Nasdaq, respectively, drawing over US$30 million in first-day inflows. Unlike earlier crypto ETF structures that offered pure price exposure, these funds incorporate staking mechanisms, allowing investors to earn yield while holding the asset.

This innovation speaks directly to institutional appetite for income-generating digital assets in an environment where risk-free rates remain elevated but volatile. The inclusion of staking functionality elevates Solana beyond mere speculative exposure. It positions SOL as a yield-bearing asset within a broader portfolio framework, blurring the line between traditional fixed income and decentralised finance.

Crucially, Solana’s price held firm near US$183 despite Bitcoin’s recent turbulence, suggesting that ETF approval has conferred a degree of regulatory legitimacy not previously enjoyed by most altcoins. While Ethereum still commands the lion’s share of institutional attention among non-Bitcoin assets, Solana’s ETF momentum may signal a widening of the institutional aperture, potentially heralding the early stages of a broader altcoin renaissance if sustained.

Parallel to this structural shift, Binance continued to assert its dominance as the central node of global crypto liquidity. In the third quarter of 2025, Binance recorded net inflows of US$14.8 billion, a staggering 158 times more than its closest competitors. This figure is not merely a testament to user trust but reflects a deliberate strategy. The exchange has secured 21 regulatory licenses worldwide and holds US$31 billion in proof-of-reserves, positioning itself as a compliant gateway for both retail and institutional capital.

Recent partnerships, such as the integration with PayPay Japan, have further cemented its role in bridging mainstream finance with digital asset markets. In an environment where many crypto-native platforms struggle with regulatory headwinds and capital flight, Binance’s ability to attract and retain capital underscores a market preference for scale, security, and regulatory clarity, even within the centralised exchange model. This liquidity concentration has a direct impact on market dynamics.

Binance now accounts for 41 per cent of global crypto trading volume, according to BTCC data for 2025. Such dominance means that price discovery, especially during volatile periods, increasingly hinges on activity within Binance’s order books. The exchange’s inflows have effectively offset bearish sentiment elsewhere, including outflows from other crypto ETFs and risk-off behaviour in equities, acting as a counterweight to broader market pessimism.

From a technical standpoint, the rebound also found fertile ground in oversold conditions. The 14-day Relative Strength Index for the overall crypto market cap dipped to 34, entering territory historically associated with short-term buying opportunities.

Concurrently, the MACD histogram showed a narrowing of bearish momentum, falling to negative US$20.58 billion, a signal that downward pressure was beginning to ease. Traders responded swiftly, pushing the market higher in a classic relief rally. This technical bounce carries caveats. Perpetual futures funding rates across major assets remain subdued at a positive 0.0056 per cent, indicating that leverage appetite has not returned in force.

In other words, while spot traders capitalised on the dip, derivatives markets remain cautious, wary of committing to directional bets ahead of key macro events, including Nvidia’s earnings, which loom large given the chipmaker’s role as a bellwether for AI-driven equity performance. The absence of aggressive long positioning suggests that this rally is more a function of short-covering and mean reversion than a conviction-driven shift in sentiment.

Beneath these immediate drivers lies a more fragile undercurrent. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 16 out of 100, deep in extreme fear territory. This level of pessimism has historically preceded both capitulation events and eventual recoveries, but context matters. Today’s fear coincides with weakening global risk sentiment, driven by multiple crosscurrents. Treasury yields have dipped slightly, with the 10-year at 4.11 per cent and the 2-year at 3.57 per cent, reflecting safe-haven demand, yet the dollar remains flat, and the yen has weakened past 155 against the greenback on expectations of further Japanese stimulus.

Geopolitical tensions between China and Japan continue to rattle Asian markets, as evidenced by the Nikkei’s 3.2 per cent drop just one day prior. Meanwhile, oil prices rose 1.1 per cent on renewed Russia sanctions risk, and gold gained as investors sought traditional hedges. In this environment, crypto’s 1.93 per cent gain appears resilient, but it remains tethered to the fate of broader risk assets, particularly tech stocks.

The critical question now is sustainability. Can altcoins, led by Solana, maintain upward momentum if Bitcoin retests its US$86,000 support level? The answer likely hinges on two variables: continued Solana ETF inflows and shifts in Bitcoin dominance. The ETH/BTC ratio, a traditional barometer of altcoin season potential, has yet to show convincing recovery, suggesting that capital rotation into alternatives remains tentative.

Moreover, while Solana’s ETF structure offers yield through staking, its long-term appeal will depend on consistent institutional adoption and regulatory stability, not just initial enthusiasm. Binance’s liquidity dominance provides a buffer, but it also concentrates systemic risk. Any regulatory misstep or loss of confidence in the exchange could trigger rapid outflows that overwhelm even robust technical setups.

In conclusion, the crypto market’s recent rebound is real but fragile. It draws strength from three distinct pillars: institutional validation via Solana ETFs, centralised liquidity via Binance’s inflows, and technical oversold conditions inviting short-term buyers. These bullish forces operate within a macro framework tilted toward caution, marked by AI valuation fatigue, geopolitical friction, and a risk-off posture in both equities and fixed income. The rally should not be mistaken for a trend reversal but rather a tactical pause in a broader correction.

For the rebound to evolve into a sustained recovery, it will need either a catalyst that reignites global risk appetite or evidence that crypto’s fundamentals, particularly around regulated yield and institutional adoption, are decoupling from traditional market sentiment. Until then, traders and investors alike must tread carefully, watching Solana ETF flows, BTC dominance, and the ever-sensitive US$86,000 Bitcoin support level as leading indicators of what comes next.

 

Source: https://e27.co/cryptos-fragile-comeback-oversold-rsi-solana-etfs-and-the-us86k-bitcoin-test-20251119/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The new market symbiosis: How Fed easing, AI, and crypto ETFs are lifting equities

The new market symbiosis: How Fed easing, AI, and crypto ETFs are lifting equities

As markets wrapped up trading on Monday, September 30, 2025, investors witnessed a steady climb in major indices, driven by ongoing negotiations in Congress to prevent a government shutdown. Traders focused on these developments, which injected a dose of optimism into the session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 69 points, marking a 0.2 per cent increase. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 advanced 0.3 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite led the pack with a 0.5 per cent gain. This upward movement highlighted a resilient market mood, even amid earlier fluctuations that tested investor resolve.

Earlier in the day, the Dow showed signs of recovery after a choppy start. It ended up 32 points, or 0.1 per cent, despite spending much of the session in negative territory. This modest rebound came as 18 out of the 30 component stocks turned positive, indicating solid breadth across the index. Such participation from a majority of its members suggested underlying strength, rather than a rally propped up by just a handful of heavyweights.

The S&P 500, for its part, held firm in positive ground throughout, rising 0.2 per cent by early afternoon. It experienced several ups and downs, reflecting the push and pull between buyers and sellers, yet it never dipped into the red for long.

The Nasdaq Composite’s 0.5 per cent advance stood out, fuelled by renewed interest in artificial intelligence-related names and the broader Big Tech sector. This dip-buying behaviour explained much of the divergence, as tech enthusiasm lifted the index while others lagged slightly.

The Dow faced headwinds mid-session, slipping 45 points or 0.1 per cent after an initial pop higher. Only 14 of its 30 stocks gained ground at that point, underscoring its relative underperformance compared to peers. Unlike the Nasdaq or S&P, the Dow carries fewer pure-play AI and tech exposures, and it prices its components by share value rather than overall market capitalisation. This structure amplified the drag from laggards.

Notably, Apple, one of the Dow’s key holdings, traded lower despite its recent strong run, which further weighed on the index. In contrast, the Nasdaq benefited from its heavier tilt toward innovative sectors, where investors scooped up shares on any weakness, perpetuating the rally in tech darlings.

Shifting focus to broader influences, several macroeconomic tailwinds and regulatory advancements played a pivotal role in bolstering sentiment. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut in September, which brought the target range to 4.00 per cent to 4.25 per cent, eased borrowing pressures across the economy. Coupled with this, the GENIUS Act streamlined rules for exchange-traded funds, enhancing liquidity prospects.

The Securities and Exchange Commission approved ETFs for alternative coins and unified derivatives regulations, which cleared away much of the fog surrounding crypto investments. These steps actively drew in more capital from institutions, fostering a positive spillover into equities. Crypto’s seven-day correlation to the Nasdaq 100 stood at +0.72, illustrating how shared economic drivers linked these assets.

Investors now anticipate the SEC’s October 10 deadline for approving a Solana ETF, with analysts pegging the odds above 95 per cent. This potential green light could further integrate digital assets into traditional portfolios, amplifying the bullish momentum seen in stocks.

Binance’s recent initiatives added another layer of institutional momentum to the mix. The exchange introduced a white-label platform allowing banks and brokerages to integrate crypto offerings seamlessly, echoing a similar launch by Coinbase in June. This development sparked a sharp uptick in activity, with spot trading volume surging 58.47 per cent over 24 hours and derivatives volume jumping 77.41 per cent.

Such increases pointed to heightened engagement from professional players, bridging the gap between traditional finance and digital assets. Tokens like BNB rose 3.78 per cent, while Mantle climbed 7.41 per cent, buoyed by corporate adoptions such as CEA Industries’ US$160 million purchase of BNB for its treasury.

These moves signalled growing confidence in crypto as a viable reserve asset. Looking ahead, Binance’s full rollout of this service in the fourth quarter will serve as a crucial gauge for enduring demand from institutions, potentially sustaining the uplift in related equities.

On the technical and on-chain front, the picture presented a blend of encouraging and cautionary signals. BNB’s Maxwell hard fork reduced block times to 0.75 seconds, accelerating network efficiency and spurring greater usage. Bitcoin’s market dominance edged up to 58.05 per cent, hinting at a shift toward established large-cap cryptos amid uncertainty.

Total open interest in crypto reached US$1.14 trillion, up 9.66 per cent in the last 24 hours, which underscored robust speculative interest. However, the MACD histogram dipped to -10.59 billion, flagging potential overheating in derivatives markets. This duality captured the market’s current state: enthusiasm tempered by risks of excess leverage.

In my opinion, this Monday’s market action marks a turning point where policy easing and innovation converge to propel assets higher, albeit with vulnerabilities. I view the Fed’s dovish stance as a foundational support, lowering costs and encouraging risk-taking that benefits both stocks and crypto. The rate cut directly contributes to improved liquidity, which in turn supports the Nasdaq’s outperformance through investments in AI and tech.

Regulatory clarity, especially around ETFs and derivatives, removes barriers that once deterred big money, and the high odds for Solana’s approval excite me as a catalyst for fresh inflows. Binance’s push feels like a game-changer, actively pulling traditional finance into the fold and driving those volume spikes that ripple into broader markets. The corporate buys, like CEA Industries’ sizable BNB stake, convince me that we’re seeing real adoption, not just hype.

I remain watchful of the mixed technicals. The rise in Bitcoin dominance suggests investors favor safety in giants, which could cap gains in smaller names and indirectly pressure diversified indices like the S&P. The open interest boom is thrilling, but that negative MACD reading worries me about overextension in derivatives, where unwinds could spark volatility. Spot ETF assets under management at US$147.75 billion provide a buffer, yet if leverage risks escalate, they might not hold the line.

Overall, I lean bullish, believing macro tailwinds and institutional integration outweigh the froth. The Dow’s recovery, with 18 components advancing, reassures me of broad participation, while the Nasdaq’s 0.5 per cent gain highlights sector leadership. If Congress averts the shutdown, this could extend the grind higher.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-new-market-symbiosis-how-fed-easing-ai-and-crypto-etfs-are-lifting-equities-20250930/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j