Tag Archives: falls

Bitcoin falls to US$81,300 as gold shines ahead of FOMC meeting 2025

Bitcoin falls to US$81,300 as gold shines ahead of FOMC meeting 2025

The global risk sentiment pulling back ahead of today’s FOMC meeting feels like the market holding its breath, and I can’t help but feel the weight of that tension myself. Investors rushing into safe-haven assets—gold soaring past US$3,030 an ounce, the 10-year US Treasury yield slipping to 4.285 per cent—tells a story of unease but also of resilience in the face of complexity.

Meanwhile, the MSCI US index dropping 1.1 per cent, dragged down by tech giants, and Brent crude sliding to US$71.8 a barrel amid a potential oil glut paint a contrasting picture of vulnerability. Add in Russia’s partial ceasefire, Trump-Putin talks, and a surprising uptick in US economic data, and it’s a lot to process. As a journalist who thrives on digging into the facts, I’m eager to weave these threads together and offer my take on what it all means.

Let’s start with the safe-haven stampede. Gold’s 40 per cent climb over the past year is staggering, and its latest push above US$3,030 an ounce feels like a siren blaring about global fears—economic slowdown, inflation, geopolitical strife, and central banks hoarding the metal like it’s the last lifeboat on a sinking ship.

The 10-year Treasury yield dipping by 2.1 basis points reinforces this flight to safety; investors are willing to accept lower returns for the comfort of US debt. I’ve seen this pattern before in times of uncertainty, like during the 2020 pandemic panic, but what strikes me now is the sheer velocity of gold’s ascent. It’s tempting to call it a bubble—too far, too fast, as some analysts are whispering—but I’m not so sure.

The drivers here are real: central banks like China and India have been buying gold to diversify away from the dollar, and with Russia’s ceasefire talks and Middle East tensions simmering, the geopolitical risk premium isn’t going away anytime soon. Still, I can’t shake the feeling that a correction might loom if the FOMC surprises with a dovish tilt or if global tensions ease more than expected.

On the flip side, the equity markets are showing strain. The MSCI US dropping 1.1 per cent, with tech mega caps leading the charge downhill, suggests that the risk-on exuberance of recent months is cooling. These stocks—think Apple, Nvidia, Amazon—have been the darlings of the bull run, but they’re sensitive to interest rate expectations, and the FOMC meeting is the elephant in the room.

Everyone’s expecting rates to hold steady, but the real action will be in the dot plot and Jerome Powell’s press conference. Will the Fed signal a longer pause or hint at cuts later in 2025? I suspect the upside surprises in US housing starts and industrial production—data points that landed stronger than anticipated—might give Powell room to strike a cautiously optimistic tone.

That could buoy stocks, as hinted by US equity futures pointing to a higher open. But for now, the market’s nerves are palpable, and I’d wager that tech’s decline reflects a broader reassessment of growth bets in an uncertain world.

Geopolitics is the wild card here, and it’s impossible to ignore Russia’s partial ceasefire amid Trump-Putin talks. This development could dial back some of the risk baked into markets, especially in energy.

Brent crude’s 0.8 per cent dip to US$71.8 a barrel puzzled me at first—shouldn’t Middle East tensions push oil higher? But digging deeper, the talk of a global crude glut makes sense. Supply is outpacing demand, and even with sanctions on Russia, their oil keeps flowing, often through creative crypto workarounds I’ll get to later.

A ceasefire, even partial, might stabilise energy markets further, though I’m skeptical it’ll stick without broader diplomatic breakthroughs. Trump’s involvement adds an unpredictable twist—his deal-making style could either calm things down or stir the pot, and I’m leaning toward the latter given his track record.

Europe’s a bright spot that caught my eye. German stocks climbing after parliament approved big spending on defense and infrastructure feels like a lifeline for a region that’s been stuck in neutral. The ZEW survey expectations leaping to 51.6 from 26 in February is the kind of data that makes me sit up—it’s a signal that investor confidence is rebounding, maybe even hinting at a German economic revival. I’ve covered Europe’s stagnation narrative for years, and this feels like a pivot worth watching. Could it mean Europe starts to decouple from US market woes? Possibly, though it’s early days.

Asia, though, is a mixed bag. Indonesia’s JCI index tanking 3.8 per cent over rumours of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati’s resignation—rumours she’s since squashed—shows how jittery emerging markets can get. Four straight days of declines is brutal, and it’s a reminder that political stability is oxygen for these economies.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan and Bank Indonesia holding pat on rates aligns with the global wait-and-see vibe. Asian equities being mixed in early trading mirrors the indecision I’m seeing everywhere else.

Now, let’s talk gold versus Bitcoin, because this tug-of-war fascinates me. Gold’s red-hot run might be stealing thunder from Bitcoin, which slipped to US$81,300 from US$84,000. A 40 per cent gold surge versus Bitcoin’s more volatile path raises questions about sustainability. I’ve tracked both assets for years, and I see gold’s rally as a fear trade—steady, tangible, a hedge against chaos. Bitcoin, though, is the speculator’s playground, and its dip might reflect profit-taking or a shift in sentiment.

Enter MicroStrategy (MSTR), whose latest move—a Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock (STRF) with a 10 per cent dividend—shows they’re still betting big on Bitcoin. Raising funds to buy more BTC (they added 130 tokens for US$10.7 million last week, bringing their stash to 499,226) is bold, but the pace is slowing, and Wall Street’s enthusiasm might be waning.

MSTR’s stock dropping five per cent Tuesday alongside Bitcoin’s slide tells me the market’s reassessing this strategy. The STRF’s high-yield structure—10 per cent cash dividends, compounding to 18 per cent if unpaid, trading on Nasdaq soon—is clever, offering Bitcoin exposure without direct ownership. But I wonder if this signals desperation or genius as their fundraising spigot tightens.

Geopolitics crashing into crypto is the final piece of this puzzle, and it’s a doozy. Russia using Bitcoin and Ethereum to dodge sanctions—US$192 billion in oil trade rerouted through rupees, yuan, and crypto—is a game-changer. The process is slick: an Indian buyer pays a middleman in rupees, who swaps it for crypto, sends it to Russia, and they cash out in rubles. Sanctions? Skirted.

Reuters’ mid-March reporting nails this trend, and while one Russian exchange got shut down this month after US and EU sanctions, others will pop up. I’ve long argued that crypto’s global reach makes it a double-edged sword—freedom for some, a loophole for others. This isn’t just about Russia; it’s a signal that digital assets are reshaping geopolitics, and regulators are playing catch-up.

So where do I land? The FOMC meeting today is the linchpin—Powell’s words could either soothe or spook markets. Gold’s run feels frothy but grounded in real fears; Bitcoin’s dip is a hiccup, not a collapse. Geopolitics and crypto are intertwining in ways that’ll define the next decade, and Europe’s flicker of hope contrasts with Asia’s stumbles.

 

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-falls-to-us81300-as-gold-shines-ahead-of-fomc-meeting-2025-20250319/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Market recap: Europe gains, crypto falls, and trade fears grow

Market recap: Europe gains, crypto falls, and trade fears grow

The market wrap for February 27, 2025, paints a vivid picture of a world grappling with choppy risk sentiment, spurred by US President Donald Trump’s latest pronouncements on trade policy. His remarks during Wednesday’s cabinet meeting—laden with ambiguity about tariffs on Canada and Mexico, hints of a delay from March to April, and a firm declaration of 25 per cent reciprocal tariffs on European autos—have sent ripples of unease across global markets.

Add to that a slew of economic data points, corporate earnings, and geopolitical developments, and you’ve got a recipe for volatility that’s keeping investors on their toes. Here’s my take on what’s unfolding, grounded in facts and a healthy dose of skepticism about where this all might lead.

Let’s start with Trump’s trade rhetoric, which has once again thrust uncertainty into the spotlight. His contradictory signals about tariffs on Canada and Mexico—major US trading partners—suggest a strategy that’s either deliberately fluid or frustratingly inconsistent.

On one hand, he’s floated a potential delay, pushing the timeline from March to April, which could buy time for negotiations or simply prolong the suspense. On the other, he’s doubled down with a pledge for 25 per cent tariffs on European autos and other goods, a move that’s less about surprise (given his long-standing “tariff man” persona) and more about escalation.

The markets despise ambiguity, and Trump’s words have delivered it in spades. Investors are left parsing his intentions: Is this a negotiating tactic to extract concessions, or a genuine prelude to a broader trade war? The historical precedent from his first term—where tariffs on steel and aluminum roiled markets but often softened in practice—offers little comfort when the stakes now seem higher and the global economy more fragile.

The economic data isn’t helping soothe nerves either. US new home sales took a nosedive in January, dropping 10.5 per cent to 657,000 units. That’s a stark signal of cooling demand in a housing market already battered by high interest rates and affordability woes. For context, this figure undershoots even the most pessimistic forecasts, hinting at deeper structural issues—perhaps a pullback in consumer confidence or a ripple effect from trade-related uncertainty.

Housing is a bellwether for broader economic health, and this bearish turn could amplify growth concerns, especially as Trump’s policies threaten to layer on inflationary pressures via tariffs. It’s no wonder equity markets have been volatile, with traders caught between macroeconomic red flags and the micro-level drama of corporate earnings.

Speaking of earnings, Nvidia’s latest report was the week’s marquee event, and it didn’t disappoint—or rather, it didn’t fully satisfy. The chip giant, a darling of the tech rally, posted results that beat analyst expectations, yet the stock wobbled in after-hours trading. Why? After two years of blowout performances that fuelled AI-driven euphoria, this “modest beat” felt like a letdown.

Investors have grown accustomed to Nvidia shattering ceilings, and anything less sparks doubts about whether the growth story has peaked. The broader MSCI US index eked out a negligible 0.03 per cent gain, buoyed by a 0.8 per cent rise in the Info Tech sector, but the lack of decisive momentum reflects a market wrestling with bigger questions. Are we seeing the limits of tech-led optimism in an environment where tariffs and inflation could crimp corporate margins?

Meanwhile, fixed-income markets offered their own commentary. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slipped 4 basis points to 4.25 per cent, a subtle nod to growth fears trumping inflation worries—for now. Lower yields signal a flight to safety, as investors bet on a slowing economy potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to rethink its rate-cut trajectory.

The US Dollar Index, up 0.1 per cent to 106.49, suggests some resilience, likely propped up by Trump’s tariff threats enhancing the greenback’s safe-haven appeal. Gold, too, ticked up 0.1 per cent to US$2,915.92 an ounce, hovering near record territory as a hedge against uncertainty. These moves aren’t dramatic, but they underscore a cautious repositioning amid the noise.

Across the Atlantic, MSCI Europe climbed a solid 1.0 per cent, lifted by a new minerals deal between the US and Ukraine. It’s a rare bright spot, hinting at strategic shifts in resource alliances that could cushion Europe against trade disruptions. But let’s not kid ourselves—European autos, now squarely in Trump’s tariff crosshairs, could drag sentiment down fast. Companies like Volkswagen and Stellantis, with heavy exposure to North American supply chains, face a reckoning if those 25 per cent duties stick. The sector’s already nursing wounds from a post-pandemic slump, and this could be salt in the wound.

Asia, meanwhile, tells a tale of resilience and divergence. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rebounded 1.5 per cent, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng stealing the show at a 3.3 per cent surge. The catalyst? News that China plans to recapitalise its biggest banks, a move that could stabilise a financial system creaking under bad debt and sluggish growth.

It’s a bold step, and the market’s enthusiastic response suggests hope that Beijing’s got more tricks up its sleeve. Yet, early trading today showed Asian indices mixed, and US equity futures point to a softer open stateside. The global mood remains jittery, and China’s bank rescue might be a temporary salve rather than a cure.

Then there’s the cryptocurrency saga, a wild subplot in this market drama. Over US$800 billion has evaporated from global crypto markets in recent weeks, a brutal reversal from the post-election euphoria tied to Trump’s perceived pro-crypto stance. Bitcoin shed 3.6 per cent on Wednesday, hitting US$85,600, while Ethereum took a 4 per cent dive to US$2,275—its lowest since September.

The culprits are manifold: inflation fears, tariff anxieties, a cooling meme coin craze, and a US$1.4 billion hack at the Bybit exchange, linked to the notorious Lazarus group. The forensic fallout confirms it was a targeted attack, not a flaw in Safe Wallet’s smart contracts, but the damage to confidence is real. Crypto’s 4 per cent daily drop mirrors the broader sell-off in risk assets, and Ethereum’s 53 per cent lag from its 2021 peak is a stark reminder of how far the mighty can fall when sentiment sours.

Oil, too, is feeling the heat. Brent crude slipped 0.7 per cent to US$72.71 a barrel, pressured by an unexpected buildup in US fuel inventories and whispers of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. The latter could ease supply concerns, but the former points to weakening demand—a troubling sign when paired with the housing data. Energy markets are a microcosm of the push-pull between geopolitical hope and economic reality, and right now, reality’s winning.

So, what’s my point of view on all this? I have mentioned this many times in the past few days. I see a world at a crossroads, where Trump’s trade gambit could either spark a manageable reshuffling of global commerce or tip us into a deeper slowdown. The data—housing’s slump, oil’s slide, crypto’s crash—screams caution, yet pockets of strength in Europe and Asia hint at adaptability.

Nvidia’s underwhelming “win” feels symbolic: growth is still possible, but the easy gains are gone. Investors are right to be skittish; tariffs could stoke inflation just as growth falters, a stagflationary nightmare the Fed’s ill-equipped to handle if yields keep dropping. I’m skeptical of Trump’s ability to thread this needle—his track record leans more toward disruption than finesse. But markets are nothing if not resilient, and the next few weeks, with Fed testimony and more tariff clarity looming, will test that resilience to the hilt. For now, I’d say buckle up: this ride’s only getting bumpier.

 

Source: https://e27.co/market-recap-europe-gains-crypto-falls-and-trade-fears-grow-20250227/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Gold rises and tech falls: A tale of two markets

Gold rises and tech falls: A tale of two markets

Key points

  • Global markets remain uncertain, with the tech sector driving volatility
  • Korean tech giants SK Hynix and Samsung saw declines, impacting Asian equities
  • Holiday closures in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan added to market anticipation
  • AI-linked tech stocks faced a sell-off, shifting investor sentiment
  • Tariff threats from Trump against Mexico and Canada heightened trade tensions
  • US markets showed resilience, with the MSCI index rising slightly
  • Gold prices neared US$2,800 per ounce, signalling investor caution
  • Crypto markets saw regulatory shifts, including Thai finance reforms and Kraken’s return to staking
  • Concerns over a potential crypto bubble persist amid policy changes
  • Speculation grows around central banks buying Bitcoin under Trump’s policies

The air of uncertainty that has been lingering over global markets was palpable today, as the tech sector in the United States added to the tension. It’s clear that the performance of major tech firms can sway the market’s mood, and with Korean tech giants like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics taking a hit as their markets reopened after the Lunar New Year, the ripple effects were felt across Asian equities. It’s like watching dominos fall; one market’s performance can echo through others, especially when tech behemoths are involved.

Meanwhile, the holiday closure in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan added another layer of quietness to an already cautious market. This pause, while expected, left investors in a state of anticipation, wondering how the return of these markets might alter the current landscape.

The tech earnings season is under a microscope, especially after the dramatic sell-off in shares linked to artificial intelligence. It’s a stark reminder of how quickly investor sentiment can shift from optimism to skepticism. When we delve into these earnings, we’re not just looking at numbers; we’re reading the tea leaves of future innovation, market demand, and the viability of new tech frontiers.

And then there’s the geopolitical chess game with Trump’s tariff threats against Mexico and Canada, which not only impacted their currencies but also sent a shiver through global trade relations. This isn’t just about tariffs; it’s about the broader implications for international cooperation, trade agreements, and the global supply chain that tech relies on.

What startup should I start based on market trends in 2025?

On the US market front, it has showed resilience, with the MSCI index inching up, led by the utilities sector. This movement might seem minor, but in the context of recent volatility, it’s a signal of stability, or at least, a search for it. The slight dip in Treasury yields might be a whisper of investors seeking safety, or perhaps a recalibration in expectations about future economic growth. In a way, it’s like watching the tide; the subtle shifts can tell you a lot about the coming storms or calm.

Gold’s persistent climb towards US$2,800 per ounce speaks volumes about where investors are parking their money amidst these uncertainties. Even Brent crude held steady, though the spectre of tariffs on major oil suppliers like Canada and Mexico casts a shadow over future price movements. It’s a delicate balance, where energy prices could either fuel recovery or fan the flames of inflation.

Turning my gaze to the digital realm, the crypto space is buzzing with developments. I see Barry Silbert’s Digital Currency Group diving into crypto mining, signalling a deepening commitment to this volatile yet promising sector. This isn’t just about mining; it’s about staking a claim in the future of money. The Thai finance minister’s proposal for a single license for securities and crypto trading could be a game-changer, potentially smoothing the path for more integrated financial systems. It’s an acknowledgment that the lines between traditional finance and digital assets are blurring, necessitating new frameworks of regulation and understanding.

However, the warnings from hedge fund Elliott about a crypto bubble inflated by policy missteps are concerning; it’s a reminder of the fragility inherent in this market. The narrative around cryptocurrencies oscillates between innovation and speculation, and the fine line between the two can mean the difference between boom or bust. Kraken’s return to staking in the US post-SEC tussle is a testament to the sector’s resilience and adaptability to regulatory pressures. It’s like watching a phoenix rise from the ashes, showing that even under scrutiny, the crypto market finds ways to thrive and adapt.

DeepSeeking the future: The ripple effect on tech, crypto, and global markets

And then there’s the intriguing speculation about central banks potentially buying Bitcoin under Trump’s crypto policies—a scenario that could redefine the relationship between traditional finance and digital currencies. This isn’t just about Bitcoin; it’s about the acknowledgment that cryptocurrencies could play a role in monetary policy, liquidity, or even as a hedge against traditional financial crises. Fed Chair Powell’s cautious endorsement of banks serving crypto clients with proper risk management further underscores the mainstreaming of cryptocurrency, albeit with a careful eye on stability.

From my perspective, we’re standing at a crossroads where traditional economics meets the digital frontier. The markets are a complex dance of policy, technology, and human behaviour, and today’s movements are just steps in that ongoing dance. For investors, this environment demands not just vigilance but also an openness to adapt to the rapidly evolving landscape where digital assets might just be the next big asset class. It’s clear that understanding and navigating these intersections will be key to not just surviving but thriving in this era of financial transformation.

The world of finance is becoming an intricate tapestry where every thread—be it tech stocks, geopolitical maneuvers, or the rise of digital currencies—interweaves to create a picture of both risk and opportunity. Today’s market movements are not just about today but are harbingers of the financial paradigms we’re moving towards. As we navigate this terrain, the ability to read, adapt, and anticipate will define the winners and losers in this new economic reality.

 

Source: https://e27.co/gold-rises-and-tech-falls-a-tale-of-two-markets-20250131/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j