Tag Archives: fear

From extreme fear to cautious hope: What the 10-point sentiment swing signals for crypto

From extreme fear to cautious hope: What the 10-point sentiment swing signals for crypto

The crypto market just posted a 5.2 per cent gain, reaching US$2.45T in 24h, a move that demands careful scrutiny rather than blind celebration. This rally traces its roots to a macro-driven Bitcoin surge that closely tracked US equity markets, revealing an 89 per cent correlation with the S&P 500. That number tells a story far more significant than any single crypto catalyst. It signals that digital assets now trade as a high beta extension of traditional risk markets, sensitive to the same interest rate expectations and liquidity flows that move stocks.

Bitcoin did not rally in isolation. It advanced alongside renewed signals of institutional accumulation and whispers of positive regulatory sentiment, with social media amplifying technical patterns like the golden cross and reports from sources such as FinanceLancelot suggesting potential regulatory easing. I view these narratives with measured scepticism. While improving sentiment matters, the core driver remains macro liquidity, not a fundamental shift in crypto’s decentralised value proposition.

This correlation carries profound implications for how we assess crypto’s role in a portfolio. When Bitcoin moves in lockstep with the S&P 500, it loses some of its purported hedge characteristics during periods of traditional market stress. The rally reflects crypto trading as a risk-on asset amid a broader equity upswing, not as a decoupled innovation cycle. That does not diminish Bitcoin’s technological merit, but it does reframe short-term price action. Traders should watch Bitcoin’s ability to sustain levels between US$72,000 and US$74,000. A break below that range could reveal this advance as a brief macro-driven spike rather than the start of a self sustaining crypto native bull leg. The market needs to prove it can hold gains without constant reinforcement from the equity market.

Breadth matters in any healthy rally, and here we see encouraging signs beyond Bitcoin. The Layer 1 sector outperformed the broader market with a 5.73 per cent gain, indicating a rotation of capital into major altcoin ecosystems. Simultaneously, the CMC Fear and Greed Index jumped from 19, labeled Extreme Fear, to 29, labeled Fear, in just 24h. That 10-point swing reflects a rapid, though still cautious, improvement in trader psychology and risk appetite.

The Altcoin Season Index currently sits at 32, a level that warrants close monitoring. If it continues to rise, it would confirm a sustained rotation into higher beta assets, amplifying the overall market move. This sector momentum suggests the rally has participation beyond speculative Bitcoin trades, though I caution against overinterpreting short-term sentiment shifts. Fear to less fear does not equal greed, and sustainable bull markets require deeper fundamental anchors than sentiment oscillations alone.

The near-term path hinges on 2 concrete factors. First, Bitcoin must defend the US$72,000 support level. Second, the US Non-Farm Payrolls report on March 7 will deliver critical macro data that could reshape rate expectations. A close below US$72,000 could trigger a retest of the US$2.32T to US$2.36T Fibonacci support zone for the total crypto market cap. That scenario would not invalidate the long-term thesis for decentralised systems, but it would remind participants that macro gravity still applies.

I view this dependency on traditional economic data as a transitional phase. As decentralised infrastructure matures and real-world utility expands, crypto markets should gradually decouple from short-term macro noise. Until then, traders must respect the correlation while builders focus on the underlying technology.

This crypto move unfolds against a backdrop of global market stabilisation. US indices attempted to build on Wednesday’s rebound, with the S&P 500 rising 0.78 per cent to 6,869.50 and the Nasdaq gaining 1.29 per cent to 22,807.48. Asian markets showed strength too, as Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 4.17 per cent to 56,510 points, hitting a fresh post-all-time high level. Commodities sent mixed signals, with Brent oil settling around US$81.40 after earlier spikes, while natural gas futures dropped more than five per cent from local highs. These moves matter because crypto does not exist in a vacuum.

Liquidity flows, risk sentiment, and geopolitical assessments ripple across all asset classes. The 85 per cent probability markets currently price in for a Federal Reserve pause at the upcoming March FOMC meeting underscores how rate expectations anchor everything. Chip stocks like Micron and AMD led the recent rebound, with gains of over five per cent, highlighting how tech-sector momentum can spill over into crypto valuations given overlapping investor bases.

From my perspective, this moment underscores both the progress and the pitfalls of crypto’s integration into global finance. The 89 per cent correlation with equities proves institutional adoption is real, though it also reveals a vulnerability. When crypto trades purely as a macro beta proxy, its unique value propositions around decentralisation, censorship resistance, and financial sovereignty can get overshadowed by short-term price action.

I remain critical of frameworks like the Howey test being applied to decentralised networks, as they were designed for a different era of financial intermediation. True innovation lies in systems that enhance user sovereignty, not those that simply replicate traditional market dynamics with new ticker symbols. The current improvements in regulatory sentiment are welcome, but I watch for substance over symbolism. Real progress means clear rules that protect users without stifling open source development or privileging incumbent players.

The cautious optimism I feel today stems from seeing market participants engage with nuance. The rally lacks a singular explosive catalyst, which actually strengthens its credibility. Moves driven by broad macro flows and improving sentiment can be more durable than those fueled solely by hype. Sustainability requires Bitcoin to consolidate above US$72,000, providing a stable base for further gains. The next 48h will offer clarity.

If Bitcoin holds support while the jobs report reinforces the case for eventual rate cuts, we could see a more durable trend emerge. If not, a retest of lower support zones would remind us that volatility remains the price of admission in this asset class. I believe public markets will regain popularity among entrepreneurs and provide broader access to investment opportunities, and crypto’s evolution fits within that larger arc. The path demands patience, rigorous analysis, and a commitment to building systems that serve human needs rather than speculative fervour.

 

Source: https://e27.co/from-extreme-fear-to-cautious-hope-what-the-10-point-sentiment-swing-signals-for-crypto-20260305/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Extreme fear grips crypto: What 15 Fear Index reading means for your portfolio

Extreme fear grips crypto: What 15 Fear Index reading means for your portfolio

When US and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes on Iranian targets over the weekend, including reports of the Supreme Leader’s death, markets reacted with immediate severity. Investors fled risk assets en masse, seeking refuge in gold, the $, and short-duration Treasuries.

Crypto, contrary to its early narrative as digital gold or an uncorrelated hedge, moved firmly in risk-off territory. This moment underscores a maturing reality: digital assets now trade as part of the global macro complex, not apart from it.

The data confirms this integration. Crypto’s seven-day correlation with the S&P 500 currently sits at 78 per cent. This tight linkage means that when equities stumble on geopolitical shock or inflation fears, crypto rarely decouples. The selloff was not driven by protocol failures, regulatory crackdowns, or technical breakdowns specific to blockchain networks. Instead, it reflected a broad-based retreat from risk. Leverage amplified the move.

Traders holding overextended long positions faced forced exits, with US$130 million in BTC liquidations recorded in a single day. This cascade illustrates how derivative markets can amplify spot price moves during stress events. It also reveals participants’ psychological state. The CoinMarketCap Fear and Greed Index registered a reading of 15, firmly in extreme fear territory and near its lowest level this year. When sentiment reaches this extreme, reflexive selling often overshadows fundamental analysis, creating both vulnerability and opportunity.

Geopolitical escalation remains the primary catalyst. Operation Epic Fury, the weekend bombardment of Iranian facilities, has raised credible fears of a wider regional conflict. Iran has pledged a strong response, and the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime chokepoint carrying 20 per cent of global oil supply, now faces immediate disruption risk.

Energy markets reacted with their most volatile opening in over a year. Analysts warn that Brent crude could test US$100 to US$120 per barrel if shipping lanes are threatened. This energy shock matters profoundly for crypto. Higher oil prices feed inflationary pressures just as markets were digesting hotter-than-expected US producer price data. The Federal Reserve’s path toward potential rate cuts in March now appears more complicated. Hawkish signals from policymakers could add another layer of pressure on risk assets, including digital tokens. Crypto does not operate in a vacuum. It absorbs the same macro currents that move equities, commodities, and currencies.

Technical levels now provide the framework for near-term price action. The market’s yearly low at US$2.17 trillion represents critical support. A sustained break below this level could open the door to deeper losses, potentially testing the 200-day moving average near US$3.3 trillion. Conversely, holding above US$2.17 trillion might allow for consolidation, with initial resistance at the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of US$2.41 trillion. These levels matter because they anchor trader psychology and algorithmic execution. In a macro-driven environment, technicals often act as a self-fulfilling prophecy when liquidity thins and sentiment sours. The path forward hinges less on blockchain fundamentals and more on geopolitical headlines. Statements from US and Iranian officials, movements in oil prices, and shifts in equity futures will likely dictate crypto’s direction in the coming sessions.

I view this moment through a lens shaped by years of navigating crypto’s evolution. The narrative that digital assets would instantly serve as safe havens during crises was always oversimplified. True decentralisation and resilience take time to build, both technologically and in market structure. What we see today is not a failure of crypto’s promise but a reflection of its current integration into global finance. The 78 per cent correlation with equities is not permanent. It is a snapshot of a market still discovering its role amid evolving monetary regimes and geopolitical fragmentation. Those who dismiss crypto because it fell alongside stocks miss the deeper story. The infrastructure for sovereign-grade financial alternatives continues to develop beneath the surface. Stress events like this one test that infrastructure, revealing weaknesses but also accelerating necessary adaptations.

The broader macro backdrop adds complexity. Before the Middle East escalation, markets already grappled with sticky inflation signals and valuation concerns in the AI sector. The energy price spike now threatens to reignite broad-based inflationary pressures, potentially delaying central bank easing cycles.

For crypto, this means the liquidity environment could remain restrictive longer than bulls hoped. History suggests that periods of extreme fear often precede meaningful inflexion points. The current Fear and Greed reading of 15 indicates capitulation sentiment, which has frequently marked local bottoms in past cycles. This does not guarantee an immediate rebound, but it warrants attention. Traders watching the US$2.17 trillion to US$2.41 trillion range will find clues about whether sellers are exhausting or whether further deleveraging lies ahead.

Looking ahead, the key question centres on whether crypto can defend its major support levels while geopolitical uncertainty persists. A de-escalation in the Middle East could spark a relief rally, potentially pushing market cap back toward US$2.41 trillion. Further conflict or disruptive moves in oil markets could push prices toward lower support levels. I believe the long-term trajectory of digital assets remains intact, but the near-term path will be volatile and macro-dependent. This environment demands discipline from participants. It rewards those who distinguish between structural progress in blockchain technology and short-term price action driven by headlines. It also favours strategies that account for crypto’s current role as a high-beta risk asset while preparing for its eventual evolution toward greater autonomy.

In conclusion, today’s selloff reflects a rational, if severe, repricing of risk amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Crypto’s tight correlation with equities and sensitivity to macro drivers are features of its current maturation phase, not bugs. The US$2.17 trillion support level now serves as a critical line in the sand. Holding it could stabilise sentiment and set the stage for consolidation. Breaking it could invite a deeper test of market resilience.

For those building the next generation of financial infrastructure, these moments reinforce the importance of robust design, prudent risk management, and a clear-eyed view of macro interdependencies. The path to true decentralisation includes navigating periods where crypto moves with the tide, not against it. How the market responds to the current juncture will inform not only price direction but also the broader narrative about digital assets’ role in an increasingly fragmented global economy.

 

Source: https://e27.co/extreme-fear-grips-crypto-what-15-fear-index-reading-means-for-your-portfolio-20260302/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Why Bitcoin dropped to US$64,100: Trump tariffs, US$2.6B ETF outflows, and extreme fear grip crypto

Why Bitcoin dropped to US$64,100: Trump tariffs, US$2.6B ETF outflows, and extreme fear grip crypto

The cryptocurrency market faces a sharp correction as macroeconomic headwinds collide with fragile investor sentiment. President Trump’s announcement to raise global tariffs from 10 per cent to 15 per cent ignited a risk-off cascade, pulling capital from volatile assets like Bitcoin into traditional safe havens such as gold. This move, framed as a protective measure for the domestic industry, instead sparked immediate fears of a global trade war and resurgent inflation. Investors reacted swiftly, and the digital asset space bore the brunt of this repricing.

Macroeconomic pressure serves as the central catalyst for today’s decline. The tariff hike represents more than a trade adjustment. It signals a potential shift toward protectionism that could disrupt global supply chains and elevate costs for consumers and businesses alike. Geopolitical tensions, including a potential conflict between the United States and Iran, compound this anxiety and further strain market confidence. When traditional markets wobble, crypto often amplifies the move due to its higher beta.

Bitcoin’s drop below the critical US$65,000 support level triggered over US$460 million in liquidations across the market. This cascade of forced selling from overleveraged traders accelerated the price drop, creating a feedback loop that pushed Bitcoin near US$64,100, a decline of approximately five per cent. Ethereum followed suit, falling below US$1,900 to trade near US$1,840. Altcoins experienced even steeper losses, with Solana down seven per cent and XRP down six per cent. The Fear and Greed Index now sits at 11, reflecting extreme fear among investors. This metric, while useful, often captures short-term emotion rather than long-term value.

Institutional flows provide another layer to this downturn. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant outflows, with roughly US$2.6 billion exiting year to date. Major institutions, like BlackRock, reported single-day outflows of up to US$373 million. These numbers highlight how quickly institutional capital can rotate when macro conditions shift. It remains important to distinguish between strategic rebalancing and panic selling.

Some institutions may be reducing exposure temporarily to manage portfolio risk, not abandoning the asset class entirely. On-chain data adds further context, showing increased selling from whales and mining companies. Bitdeer, for instance, reportedly sold its entire Bitcoin holdings to support its balance sheet. While this activity adds selling pressure, it also reflects the diverse motivations of market participants. Miners often sell to cover operational costs, and large holders may take profits or adjust positions based on their own risk assessments. These actions are part of a maturing market’s ecosystem, not necessarily a signal of impending collapse.

The broader equity market painted a similar picture of risk aversion. Major US stock indices ended sharply lower on Monday, February 23, 2026, driven by renewed tariff uncertainty and mounting fears that artificial intelligence could disrupt corporate profits. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst session in weeks, plunging 821.91 points to close at 48,804.06. The S&P 500 fell 1.04 per cent to 6,837.75, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 1.13 per cent to 22,627.27. Tariff uncertainty weighed heavily on trade-sensitive stocks like American Eagle Outfitters and Ralph Lauren. Simultaneously, markets grappled with a viral research report suggesting that AI could spark a race to the bottom in white-collar work.

IBM became the S&P 500’s biggest loser, tumbling 13 per cent in its worst day since 2000, after Anthropic’s Claude Code was touted as a tool to modernise COBOL programming, potentially threatening IBM’s legacy mainframe business. Financials also faced significant declines, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and American Express all posting major losses. Consumer Staples bucked the trend, leading the few gainers as investors sought defensive positions. This sector rotation underscores how quickly capital moves when uncertainty rises.

Global markets reacted with mixed signals on Tuesday, February 24, 2026. Asian markets opened with divergence. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.79 per cent following a holiday, while mainland Chinese shares saw gains as they returned from the Lunar New Year break, supported by optimism over potentially lower US tariffs following the Supreme Court’s ruling. This regional variation highlights how local factors can temper or amplify global trends.

For crypto, which trades continuously across borders, these disparities create both challenges and opportunities. Arbitrage possibilities emerge, but so does increased volatility as traders digest conflicting signals. The market is currently testing the US$60,000 psychological support level for Bitcoin. A break below this could signal further downside toward US$50,000. Support levels are not immutable. They represent zones where buyer interest may emerge, not guaranteed floors.

From my perspective, today’s decline reflects the growing pains of an asset class still finding its place within the global financial system. Crypto markets remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic narratives, but this sensitivity does not invalidate their long-term potential. The convergence of AI and blockchain, a theme I explore extensively, suggests that technological innovation will continue to drive value creation beyond short-term price action. The current risk-off environment tests investor resolve, but it also separates speculative noise from substantive projects. Decentralised systems offer resilience that traditional finance often lacks, and they are not immune to sentiment shifts.

The key lies in maintaining a focus on fundamentals: network activity, developer engagement, and real-world utility. These metrics matter more than daily price fluctuations.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-bitcoin-dropped-to-us64100-trump-tariffs-us2-6b-etf-outflows-and-extreme-fear-grip-crypto-20260224/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j