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The Fed’s first rate cut: What it means for equities, risk, and crypto

The Fed’s first rate cut: What it means for equities, risk, and crypto

The Federal Reserve has officially initiated its rate cut cycle, a move long anticipated by markets that have already priced in approximately 3.8 cuts over the next 12 months. I forecast two additional reductions on October 29 and December 12.

Historically, the period immediately following the first rate cut has been marked by heightened volatility as markets recalibrate their expectations, reassess risk premiums, and digest the implications of a new monetary regime.

This transitional phase is particularly delicate because it often coincides with divergent signals from economic data, political uncertainty, and evolving investor positioning. All of these factors are present in today’s environment.

Equities and the magnificent seven effect

Equity markets, led by the S&P 500’s impressive 32 per cent rally from its recent lows, reflect a strong recovery narrative driven disproportionately by the so-called Magnificent Seven (Mag7) stocks. These technology and growth-oriented giants continue to post earnings growth roughly four times that of the remaining 493 companies in the index, underscoring their outsized influence on overall market performance.

However, this concentration introduces significant risk. Mag7 valuations now exceed 30 times forward earnings, not yet at their historical peaks but certainly in elevated territory. While historical backtesting suggests that equities generally perform well in the 12 to 24 months following the start of a Fed easing cycle, the current context differs in important ways.

The market’s narrow leadership, combined with stretched valuations, makes indiscriminate exposure to these names increasingly perilous. Chasing performance at this juncture could expose investors to sharp corrections if earnings disappoint or if macro risks materialise. Diversification, not just across sectors but across geographies and asset classes, emerges as a critical defensive and offensive strategy.

Investor positioning and market signals

Investor positioning data reveals that asset managers hold high equity allocations, though not at extreme levels that typically precede major drawdowns. Meanwhile, equity volatility remains subdued, a condition that historically correlates with lower forward returns over the subsequent six to twelve months.

This low-volatility complacency can lull investors into underestimating tail risks, especially when other asset classes also appear expensive. Gold, for instance, has seen renewed inflows into bullion-backed ETFs and now trades near US$3,760 per ounce, supported by geopolitical tensions and a modestly weaker US dollar, which closed at 98.152.

Yet gold positioning is once again crowded, suggesting limited room for further upside without a significant catalyst such as a sharp escalation in global instability or a deeper-than-expected economic slowdown. Similarly, credit markets show tight bond spreads, indicating that investors are not demanding much compensation for credit risk. In such an environment, security selection becomes paramount.

Broad exposure to high-yield or investment-grade debt may not suffice. Instead, bottom-up analysis of issuer fundamentals is essential.

Mixed economic signals and political risks

The macroeconomic backdrop offers mixed signals. August’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3 per cent month-over-month, resulting in a 2.7 per cent annual headline rate. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, stood at 2.9 per cent year-over-year after a 0.2 per cent monthly increase.

This remains above the Fed’s two per cent target but shows signs of gradual moderation. The data came in largely in line with expectations and did not provoke a strong market reaction, suggesting that investors have already internalised a path of gradual disinflation. However, political risks loom large.

The September 30 deadline for US government funding is fast approaching, and with congressional negotiations stalled, the probability of a partial shutdown is rising. While past shutdowns have had limited economic impact, they inject uncertainty into market psychology and could delay fiscal policy decisions or data releases, further complicating the Fed’s communication strategy.

Wall Street’s reaction and treasury yields

Market reactions to recent events have been muted but telling. Wall Street closed higher last Friday, ending a three-day losing streak, with the Dow Jones up 0.7 per cent, the S&P 500 gaining 0.6 per cent, and the Nasdaq rising 0.4 per cent.

Notably, markets barely flinched at the announcement of new sector-specific tariffs by the Trump administration, signalling either desensitisation to trade rhetoric or confidence that such measures will not significantly disrupt the broader economic trajectory. Treasury yields reflected this calm.

The 10-year yield edged up just one basis point to 4.183 per cent, while the two-year yield dipped two basis points to 3.645 per cent, flattening the yield curve slightly. This dynamic suggests that while near-term rate expectations are stable, longer-term growth and inflation concerns persist.

Asia’s cautious mood and key data ahead

In Asia, equities dipped on Friday as resilient US data prompted a modest reassessment of rate cut expectations. US equity index futures point to a higher open, indicating that global investors remain cautiously optimistic. The coming week will be pivotal, with the September nonfarm payrolls report on October 3 serving as a key barometer of labor market health.

Additional insights will come from the JOLTS job openings data on Tuesday and the ADP private payroll report on Wednesday. Labour market strength remains the Fed’s primary concern. If employment data remains robust, it could delay further rate cuts or reduce their magnitude, directly impacting risk asset valuations.

Bitcoin’s technical recovery

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has staged a “reasonable” technical recovery, rising 2.24 per cent in the past 24 hours to US$111,966 after a 7-day decline of 2.23 per cent. This rebound appears driven by three converging factors. First, price action held firm at the US$108,680 support level, breaking a bearish trend line and reclaiming the US$111,000 mark.

Hourly indicators, including a bullish MACD crossover and an RSI stabilising around 47-48, suggest that short-term momentum has shifted in favour of buyers. The 200-day exponential moving average at US$106,200 continues to act as a structural support, reinforcing the asset’s resilience.

However, the critical test lies ahead. A sustained close above US$112,500, the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline, could pave the way for US$113,700 to US$115,000. Failure to break this resistance may invite profit-taking and a retest of the lower support level.

On-chain metrics and corporate adoption

Second, on-chain metrics show improving demand dynamics. The 60-day Buy/Sell Pressure Delta has entered what analysts describe as an opportunity zone, indicating reduced selling pressure.

The decline in sending addresses and stable miner reserves, holding steady at 1.8 million BTC, suggests that long-term holders are not capitulating. That said, the 90-day delta remains cautious, reflecting lingering uncertainty among larger participants. The Coinbase Premium Index, currently at +0.041, will be a key gauge of sustained US institutional interest.

Third, corporate adoption continues to provide narrative support. The rebranding of 164-year-old Japanese textile firm Marusho Hotta to Bitcoin Japan and its announcement of a BTC treasury business, while small in absolute scale, aligns with a growing trend among Asian corporations seeking alternative stores of value amid declining traditional revenues.

Firms like Metaplanet and Kitabo have similarly adopted Bitcoin, reinforcing its digital gold thesis in a region that is increasingly skeptical of fiat stability.

Final thoughts: Selectivity over momentum

In sum, the current market environment demands a nuanced approach. While the Fed’s pivot to easing should, in theory, support risk assets over the medium term, the combination of expensive valuations, narrow market leadership, and external risks ranging from a potential government shutdown to geopolitical flare-ups calls for disciplined selectivity.

Investors should avoid chasing momentum in already crowded trades and instead focus on quality earnings, global diversification, and tactical entry points during pullbacks.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-feds-first-rate-cut-what-it-means-for-equities-risk-and-crypto-20250929/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Markets on edge: Fed ambiguity fuels risk-off mood as Aster surges amid crypto bloodbath

Markets on edge: Fed ambiguity fuels risk-off mood as Aster surges amid crypto bloodbath

Global markets showed signs of caution this week as investors digested conflicting messages from Federal Reserve officials on future interest rate moves.

Chair Jerome Powell emphasised uncertainties in the labour market and inflation during his recent comments, avoiding clear guidance on a potential October cut while highlighting ongoing challenges for policymakers. This ambiguity contributed to a retreat in risk sentiment, with Wall Street closing lower on Tuesday amid concerns over tech stock valuations.

Wall Street and commodities react

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.19 per cent, the S&P 500 fell 0.55 per cent, and the Nasdaq declined 0.95 per cent. Treasury yields eased slightly, with the 10-year note down four basis points to 4.11 per cent and the two-year yield slipping one basis point to 3.59 per cent.

The US dollar index held steady with a minor dip of 0.08 per cent to 97.26, reflecting limited movement amid the mixed Fed outlook. Gold prices rose 0.5 per cent to US$3,764.59 per ounce, drawing safe-haven buying as geopolitical tensions simmered and expectations for a rate cut lingered.

Brent crude oil rose 1.6 per cent to US$67.63 per barrel, supported by disruptions to Russian supply from Ukrainian strikes and escalating NATO frictions. Asian equities opened weaker today, though US futures pointed to a modest rebound at the open.

Crypto extends risk-off decline

The cryptocurrency market mirrored this broader risk-off tone, shedding 0.64 per cent over the past 24 hours and extending a seven-day slide of 4.46 per cent. This downturn closely aligned with equity movements, as evidenced by a strong correlation of 0.91 with the Nasdaq-100 over the same period.

A massive liquidation event on September 22 wiped out US$1.8 billion in long positions, primarily on exchanges, triggering a cascade that erased US$150 billion from the overall crypto market cap. Ethereum bore the brunt, with over $500 million in liquidations, outpacing Bitcoin and amplifying losses across altcoins due to high leverage in those segments.

Regulatory uncertainty added fuel to the fire, as the SEC delayed approvals for altcoin ETFs, dampening investor enthusiasm and prompting a cooldown in momentum trading. Open interest across derivatives fell 3.3 per cent as traders unwound positions, signalling a broader deleveraging amid fears of further volatility.

Technical indicators painted a grim picture, with Bitcoin’s RSI dipping to 20.69, indicating extreme oversold conditions, yet rebounds remained weak, underscoring persistent risk aversion. Bitcoin tested its US$105,000 support level, and a breach could spark another 10 to 15 per cent correction, potentially dragging the market lower if global sentiment sours further.

Aster’s breakout amid market weakness

Amid this gloom, Aster emerged as a standout performer, surging 39.27 per cent in the last 24 hours and boasting an astonishing 2,376 per cent gain over seven days. This rally stemmed from the completion of its APX-to-ASTER token migration on September 22, a 1:1 swap that unlocked US$704 million in ASTER tokens for trading and injected fresh liquidity. The project, rebranded from APX Finance, drew significant attention through new exchange listings and perceived backing from Binance and its founder Changpeng Zhao, often called CZ.

Whale activity intensified post-migration, with an Aster project multi-signature wallet transferring 80 million APX tokens valued at around US$132 million, further boosting trading volumes. By September 23, Aster’s market cap reached US$3.4 billion, a sharp rise fuelled by hype around its decentralised perpetual futures and spot trading platform.

Built on a multi-chain framework with support for up to 100x leverage on select pairs, Aster positioned itself as a high-yield alternative in the DeFi space, attracting traders seeking aggressive opportunities amid the broader market slump. Social media buzz amplified the momentum, with posts highlighting CZ’s strategic involvement as a bid to reclaim DeFi influence from centralised exchanges.

Aster’s rise invited inevitable comparisons to Hyperliquid, an established decentralised exchange specialising in perpetual futures on its custom Layer-1 blockchain. Hyperliquid gained traction after a viral airdrop in late 2024, coinciding with an industry-wide rally following Donald Trump’s reelection.

By August 2025, Hyperliquid surpassed Ethereum and Solana in user fee revenues, commanding a 75 to 80 per cent market share in perpetual DEX volumes at its peak. Its token, HYPE, traded at a US$15 billion market cap as of September 23, with daily volumes hitting US$200 billion and a total value locked exceeding US$670 million. Hyperliquid’s efficiency stemmed from its on-chain matching engine paired with an off-chain orderbook, enabling low-latency execution and deep liquidity for professional traders.

Community-driven initiatives, like proposals for a native stablecoin USDH backed by institutional partners such as State Street and VanEck, further solidified its ecosystem. In contrast, Aster’s US$2.5 billion market cap and US$20 billion in September volumes paled against Hyperliquid’s dominance, but it flipped the latter in daily perpetual futures volumes for three consecutive days, generating higher fees temporarily.

Innovation or hype? The road ahead

In my view, Aster’s explosive entry injects healthy competition into the perpetual DEX arena, where demand for leveraged trading remains robust despite market headwinds. Narratives labelling Aster as a Hyperliquid killer echo past hype, like Solana challenging Ethereum, but history shows room for multiple innovators rather than zero-sum outcomes. Hyperliquid’s battle-tested infrastructure, with 97 per cent of revenues funnelled into HYPE buybacks and a lean team of 11 delivering consistent upgrades, gives it a durable edge over newcomers.

Aster benefits from Binance ecosystem ties and CZ’s endorsement, potentially accelerating adoption through BNB Chain integration and higher leverage caps, but its rapid ascent carries risks of sharp reversals, as seen in on-chain data showing engineered growth patterns that may lack sustainability. Beginners should approach with caution, given the volatility inherent in fresh projects; swings can erase gains in a single candle, as skeptics on X noted.

Ultimately, both platforms could thrive if they carve distinct niches, Hyperliquid for institutional-grade perps and Aster for yield-focused DeFi plays. This dynamic might even spur broader innovation, benefiting users in a sector still recovering from deleveraging shocks.

Looking ahead, the crypto market’s fragility persists, with liquidation risks and regulatory delays capping upside. If Bitcoin holds above US$105,000 and the Fed signals a tilt dovish, a relief rally could ensue, but geopolitical uncertainties and equity correlations suggest choppy waters. Aster’s story adds intrigue, proving that even in downturns, targeted narratives can drive outsized moves, but long-term success demands more than initial hype.

 

Source: https://e27.co/markets-on-edge-fed-ambiguity-fuels-risk-off-mood-as-aster-surges-amid-crypto-bloodbath-20250924/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Soft landing or FOMO return? Markets rally on Fed cut amidst inflation caution

Soft landing or FOMO return? Markets rally on Fed cut amidst inflation caution

Global risk sentiment has improved markedly in recent days, driven by the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates, which has injected fresh optimism into financial markets worldwide. Investors appear to view this move as a signal that policymakers are prioritising economic growth amid signs of a cooling labour market, even as inflation remains somewhat elevated. The cut has ripple effects across asset classes, from equities to commodities and cryptocurrencies, fostering an environment where risk-taking feels more rewarded. In this context, Wall Street has pushed to new heights, while emerging trends in digital assets suggest a sector on the cusp of broader institutional acceptance.

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in its benchmark rate on September 17, bringing it down from previous levels and marking the first easing since late last year. This adjustment aims to support hiring and prevent a sharper slowdown in employment, as recent data showed initial jobless claims dropping significantly to 231,000 for the week ending September 13, the largest decline in nearly four years. Officials emphasised that the move addresses risks to the job market while keeping an eye on inflation, which ticked up slightly to 2.9 per cent in August but remains within a manageable range. Markets had largely anticipated this step, with probabilities exceeding 75 per cent leading up to the announcement, though some volatility ensued as traders digested the forward guidance indicating potential for two more cuts by year-end.

In contrast, the Bank of England opted to hold its key rate steady at four per cent on September 18, citing persistent inflationary pressures alongside uncertainties in growth and the jobs landscape. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to maintain the status quo, with members expressing caution that the UK economy is not yet out of the woods on price stability. Looking ahead, the Bank of Japan is set to reveal its policy stance today, with expectations leaning toward no change from the current 0.5 per cent short-term rate, as officials navigate tariff risks and a potential US slowdown. These divergent approaches among major central banks highlight a global economy at a crossroads, where easing in one region could spill over to influence others.

Equity markets have responded positively overall, with US indices scaling fresh peaks on September 18. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.27 per cent to close above 46,000, the S&P 500 advanced 0.48 per cent to around 6,600, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 0.94 per cent to over 22,200, buoyed by strength in technology shares. This rally reflects investor confidence that lower borrowing costs will sustain corporate earnings and consumer spending. Yields on US Treasuries moved higher in response to the robust jobless claims figure, which eased fears of a rapid labour market deterioration. The 10-year Treasury note rose three basis points to above 4.11 per cent, while the 2-year yield increased two basis points to 3.56 per cent. Such movements suggest markets are pricing in a soft landing rather than a recession, though the bond market’s reaction also underscores ongoing sensitivity to economic data.

Currency and commodity dynamics have shifted as well. The US dollar index strengthened by 0.49 per cent to 97.35, benefiting from the perception of relative US economic resilience amid global uncertainties. Gold prices dipped 0.4 per cent to US$3,643.40 per ounce, as profit-taking followed a recent record high, with the metal’s appeal dimming slightly in a risk-on environment. Brent crude oil fell 0.9 per cent to US$67.32 per barrel, pressured by concerns over US demand despite the rate cut’s potential to stimulate activity. These declines illustrate how commodities are caught between supportive monetary policy and lingering worries about global growth, particularly with trade tensions simmering.

Asian equities displayed a mixed performance, trimming some gains post the Fed’s meeting but still showing resilience in key benchmarks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 crossed the 45,000 threshold for the first time, closing higher amid a tech-led advance, reflecting spillover optimism from US markets. Early trading today saw varied movements across the region, with US futures pointing to a positive open, suggesting the upbeat sentiment may persist. This regional response highlights the increasing interconnectedness of global markets, with policy shifts in the US often setting the tone for Asia’s trading sessions.

Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, have shown remarkable vigour, with Bitcoin maintaining momentum around US$117,000 despite initial sluggishness following the rate cut. Technical indicators point to a bullish setup, with a trend line support at US$115,800 and recent breaks above resistances at US$116,200 and US$116,500. The price peaked at US$117,920 before a minor retracement to the 50 per cent Fibonacci level near US$116,750. Analysts anticipate resistance at US$117,500 and US$117,850, with a clear breach of US$118,000 potentially propelling it toward US$118,500 or even US$118,800. On-chain data reveals strong institutional accumulation, with ETF flows and whale activity supporting the floor. Social media discussions on platforms such as X highlight this breakout potential, with traders noting that a close above US$117,000 on high volume could ignite further upside. However, overbought signals from the RSI above 88 suggest a possible short-term pullback, with supports at US$116,550 and US$115,800 if resistance holds firm.

Solana has emerged as a standout performer, rallying beyond US$250, its highest in nearly eight months, and outperforming the altcoin market by 25 per cent over the past month. Institutional adoption drives this surge, with corporations holding over 17 million SOL tokens valued at US$4.3 billion. Notable players include Forward Industries with 6.82 million SOL, Sharps Technology at 2.14 million, and others like Defi Development Corp and Upexi Inc., nearing 2 million each. Helius Medical Technologies’ $500 million SOL treasury program echoes strategies like MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin reserves, bolstering SOL’s case as a reserve asset. The blockchain’s total value locked stands at US$14.6 billion, making it the second-largest DeFi ecosystem, while a 6.8 per cent staking yield surpasses Ethereum’s 2.9 per cent. Options data shows higher call premiums, indicating bullish trader sentiment, with predictions eyeing US$300 as the next target amid ETF approval hopes. X conversations amplify this enthusiasm, with users pointing to treasury strategies and network upgrades as catalysts.

Regulatory developments have further catalysed crypto’s ascent. The US and UK signed a memorandum to collaborate on quantum computing and AI, impacting blockchain security. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong expressed confidence in the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passing through Congress, clarifying the roles of the SEC and CFTC. Australia’s ASIC eased stablecoin licensing, while the SEC approved Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund—the first multi-asset crypto ETF and proposed rule changes to expedite ETF listings. These steps signal a maturing framework, reducing uncertainty and attracting institutional capital.

From my perspective, this moment feels pivotal for cryptocurrencies. The convergence of monetary easing, regulatory clarity, and institutional inflows positions digital assets for sustained growth, potentially eclipsing traditional markets in volatility but also in returns. Bitcoin’s resilience above US$117,000 amid broader economic shifts suggests it’s evolving from a speculative play to a legitimate hedge, much like gold in past cycles. I remain cautious. Rate cuts don’t erase risks like stagflation or geopolitical tensions, and crypto’s history of sharp corrections warrants prudence. Investors should diversify their portfolios and closely monitor macroeconomic indicators.

Source: https://e27.co/soft-landing-or-fomo-return-markets-rally-on-fed-cut-amidst-inflation-caution-20250919/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j