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The dovish inflection: Fed cuts, TikTok truce, and crypto crossroads set stage for market repricing

The dovish inflection: Fed cuts, TikTok truce, and crypto crossroads set stage for market repricing

The Federal Reserve’s meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday stands out as the centerpiece, with widespread expectations that the central bank will deliver its first rate cut of the year, potentially by 25 or even 50 basis points, to support economic growth amid lingering inflation concerns.

This move aligns with a broader global trend where policymakers grapple with balancing growth and price stability. The Bank of England wraps up its deliberations on Thursday, likely holding rates steady at 4.0 per cent while signaling future adjustments based on incoming data.

Over in Japan, the Bank of Japan continues its gradual normalisation path, and the Bank of Canada faces similar pressures to ease if economic indicators weaken further. These meetings dominate the calendar, and traders watch closely for any hints of coordinated action that could ripple through currency markets and equity valuations. This synchronised focus on monetary policy reflects a maturing global economy that prioritises data-driven decisions over knee-jerk reactions, which bodes well for sustained risk appetite in the coming months.

Amid this backdrop, a breakthrough in US-China relations added fuel to the positive sentiment. Negotiators from both sides hammered out a framework agreement to restructure TikTok’s ownership, transferring control to a US-dominated entity while addressing national security worries that have loomed over the app for years. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the deal during talks in Spain, noting that President Trump and President Xi Jinping plan to make a direct call on Friday to iron out the final details.

This development marks a significant step in thawing trade tensions, as it ties into larger discussions on tariffs, technology transfers, and supply chain resilience. China acknowledged a basic consensus on the ownership shift, which could prevent an outright ban on TikTok in the US and open doors for similar resolutions in other contentious areas like semiconductors and electric vehicles.

From where I sit, this agreement signals pragmatic leadership from both leaders, who recognise that escalating disputes hurt businesses on all sides. It could pave the way for broader trade pacts, boosting investor confidence and potentially lifting export-oriented sectors in both economies. The market’s initial reaction underscores this, with shares of tech firms tied to social media and advertising perking up on the news.

Wall Street captured this upbeat mood right from the opening bell on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.11 per cent, reflecting steady gains in blue-chip names like industrials and financials that stand to benefit from looser policy. The S&P 500 pushed higher by 0.47 percent.

In comparison, the Nasdaq Composite led the pack with a 0.94 percent advance, driven mainly by technology giants such as Apple and Nvidia, which continue to ride the wave of AI enthusiasm and anticipated lower borrowing costs. These record closes for the S&P and Nasdaq highlight the resilience of US equities, even as valuation concerns linger in some corners.

Tech stocks, in particular, thrived on the combination of the TikTok news, which alleviates regulatory overhangs, and the broader expectation of Fed easing that would reduce the cost of capital for growth-oriented companies. Investors rotated into these names, shrugging off minor profit-taking in overbought areas. I believe this performance sets a strong tone for the week, as any dovish tilt from the Fed could propel these indexes to new highs, though we must remain vigilant for any surprises in the dot plot or forward guidance that might temper the rally.

Fixed income markets told a complementary story, with US Treasury yields dipping slightly as participants bet on imminent rate relief. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield fell three basis points to settle at 4.03 per cent, while the two-year yield eased two basis points to 3.53 per cent, narrowing the yield curve inversion that has plagued markets for so long. This softening reflects bets that the Fed will act decisively to prevent a deeper slowdown, pulling longer-dated yields lower in anticipation of multiple cuts through year-end.

The curve’s steepening, with the 10-year minus two-year spread widening to 0.51 per cent, suggests growing comfort that recession risks are fading. These movements validate the market’s forward-looking nature, where bond traders often price in policy shifts before they occur, providing a buffer against volatility. Lower yields support equity valuations by making stocks more attractive relative to fixed income, and they ease mortgage rates, which could stimulate housing activity down the line. The US dollar followed suit, weakening against a basket of major currencies as the Dollar Index dropped 0.25 per cent to close at 97.30. This pullback stems from the softer yields and the prospect of a less hawkish Fed, which diminishes the greenback’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, gold seized the opportunity to shine, surging 1.1 per cent to reach US$3,680.80 per ounce, its strongest level in months. The metal benefits from the dollar’s retreat and the flight to quality ahead of policy uncertainty, with central banks worldwide adding to their reserves at a brisk pace. Brent crude oil also edged up 0.67 per cent to 67.44 dollars per barrel, as geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, raise supply disruption fears.

These commodity moves illustrate the interconnectedness of global risks, where energy security concerns amplify inflationary pressures that central banks must navigate. I see gold’s rally as particularly telling, not just a hedge against uncertainty but a bet on persistent loose policy that could erode fiat currencies over time.

Shifting to Asia, equities presented a mixed picture at the start of the week, building on Friday’s positive close but showing some divergence in early trading on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei index opened higher, supported by exporter gains from a weaker yen, while Australia’s ASX climbed on commodity strength. South Korea’s Kospi joined the uptrend, buoyed by semiconductor demand, though Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lagged slightly due to property sector woes.

Overall, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index hovered near record territory, reflecting spillover from Wall Street’s strength and optimism around global growth. US equity futures pointed to a mixed open stateside, with Dow contracts down marginally while Nasdaq futures held flat, suggesting traders await Fed cues before committing fully.

In my assessment, Asia’s resilience demonstrates its decoupling from pure US dependency, with domestic factors such as China’s stimulus hints playing a larger role. This regional buoyancy could be sustained if central bank outcomes align with expectations, fostering cross-border capital flows.

Turning to the cryptocurrency space, Next Technology Holding Inc., traded under the ticker NXTT, made headlines by filing a US$500 million shelf registration with the SEC to issue common stock over time. The company explicitly stated that a portion of the proceeds would fund Bitcoin acquisitions, aligning with a growing trend among public firms to diversify into digital assets as a treasury reserve. This move follows similar strategies by companies such as MicroStrategy, which have seen their stock prices correlate closely with Bitcoin’s performance. NXTT’s announcement sparked an immediate reaction, with shares dropping nearly three per cent in after-hours trading, likely due to dilution fears from the potential stock issuance. However, management emphasized that Bitcoin remains central to their long-term strategy, viewing it as a superior store of value amid inflationary environments. The filing allows for flexibility in one or more offerings, giving the board discretion over timing and allocation.

From my perspective, this step by NXTT underscores the mainstreaming of corporate crypto adoption, where firms leverage public markets to build substantial holdings. While short-term volatility is inevitable, such initiatives could drive Bitcoin’s price higher by increasing institutional demand, especially if regulatory clarity improves under the current administration.

Ethereum’s narrative offers a contrasting yet intriguing angle, trading around US$4,520 on Monday after a 2.01 per cent decline that underperformed the broader crypto market’s 0.96 percent drop. Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, argued in a recent note that digital asset treasuries focused on Ethereum hold the highest probability of long-term success compared to those piling into Bitcoin or Solana.

Kendrick points to Ethereum’s staking yields, which provide passive income streams that enhance sustainability for these corporate holders, unlike the more static holdings in Bitcoin. He warns of a potential shakeout among digital asset treasuries, where market capitalization compresses relative to net asset values, squeezing out weaker players. An mNAV above one indicates trading at a premium, signaling investor trust, but Ethereum’s ecosystem advantages, including layer-two scaling and DeFi dominance, position its treasuries for outperformance.

Kendrick maintains ambitious price targets, forecasting US$7,500 for Ethereum by year-end and US$25,000 by 2028, calling recent dips a prime entry point. I agree with this outlook, as Ethereum’s utility beyond mere speculation gives it an edge in a maturing crypto landscape, where yield generation becomes key for institutional viability.

Delving deeper into Ethereum’s challenges, the price breakdown below the US$4,500 support level triggered a cascade of stop-loss orders and invalidated the short-term bullish setup. The token slipped under the 100-hourly simple moving average and now tests the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$4,509.35. This technical fracture amplified selling pressure, with 24-hour trading volume spiking 41.34 per cent to US$39.26 dollars, confirming the bearish shift through heightened liquidity.

Algorithmic traders and leveraged positions exacerbated the move, leading to liquidations that fed the downward spiral. Looking ahead, a decisive close above US$4,509 might halt the bleeding and restore stability, but persistent failure could drag prices toward the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci level at US$4,255, opening the door to further downside. These patterns remind us that crypto markets remain prone to sharp reversals, driven by sentiment and technical triggers more than fundamentals in the near term. Ethereum’s robust mid-term prospects, anchored in network upgrades like Dencun and growing adoption in real-world assets, suggest this dip represents a temporary setback rather than a trend reversal.

Compounding the technical woes, Ethereum exchange-traded funds experienced significant outflows, with US$152.3 million pulled on August 1, marking the largest single-day exit in recent weeks according to SoSoValue data. BlackRock’s ETHA fund bore the brunt of these withdrawals, erasing some of the bullish momentum from July’s US$5.43 billion in net inflows.

This profit-taking by institutions highlights short-term caution, even as Ethereum boasts a 79 per cent gain over the past 90 days. Despite the outflows, ETF issuers collectively hold ETH6.3 million, valued at around US$26 billion, which speaks to underlying long-term conviction. Broader stablecoin supply hit all-time highs, indicating ample liquidity in the ecosystem. Still, it has not yet translated into aggressive Ethereum buying, possibly due to awaiting clearer regulatory signals or Fed outcomes. In my estimation, these ETF flows reveal the growing pains of crypto’s integration into traditional finance, where volatility tests investor resolve. However, the sheer scale of prior inflows demonstrates Ethereum’s appeal as a portfolio diversifier, and I expect renewed accumulation once macroeconomic headwinds ease.

Ethereum’s story intersects with larger themes in the digital asset world, where corporate treasuries, such as NXTT’s Bitcoin pivot and Standard Chartered’s Ethereum endorsement, highlight diverging strategies. Bitcoin remains the undisputed king for its simplicity and scarcity, but Ethereum’s yield-bearing features could attract more sophisticated players seeking returns beyond holding. The recent ETH price action and ETF dynamics underscore the need for patience amid bearish signals, yet the fundamentals point to resilience. Stablecoin liquidity at record levels signals latent capital ready to deploy, potentially fueling a rebound if technical supports hold. Geopolitical factors, such as the US-China deal, might indirectly benefit crypto by stabilising global trade and reducing uncertainty that drives safe-haven flows into assets like gold and Bitcoin.

In reflecting on this week’s developments, I see a market at an inflexion point, where central bank actions could unlock fresh upside across asset classes. The TikTok framework deal exemplifies how diplomacy can swiftly alter risk perceptions, much like how corporate crypto moves challenge traditional finance norms. While Ethereum faces near-term headwinds from technical breaks and outflows, its structural advantages position it for outsized gains in a rate-cutting environment favouring growth assets.

Overall, global sentiment leans positive, with equities, commodities, and cryptos aligned for potential advances if policymakers deliver as anticipated. Investors should focus on diversification, monitor yield curves and ETF flows, and trade headlines for cues. This convergence of events reminds us that markets thrive on clarity, and with major decisions imminent, the stage is set for a dynamic week ahead.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-dovish-inflection-fed-cuts-tiktok-truce-and-crypto-crossroads-set-stage-for-market-repricing-20250916/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The great divergence: How US inflation, jobless claims, and crypto charts are clashing ahead of the Fed’s big decision

The great divergence: How US inflation, jobless claims, and crypto charts are clashing ahead of the Fed’s big decision

As the calendar flips to September 12, 2025, financial markets around the world hum with a mix of optimism and caution, driven by recent economic data that has solidified expectations for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy moves.

Global risk sentiment remains broadly positive, with Asian equities edging close to all-time highs in early trading sessions, buoyed by encouraging signals from US inflation figures and labour market indicators. Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets have taken the lead in this upward push, reflecting renewed investor confidence amid hopes for monetary easing.

Meanwhile, US stock futures point to a flat opening, suggesting a pause after the previous day’s gains, where the S&P 500 climbed 0.9 per cent, the Nasdaq advanced 0.7 per cent, and the Dow Jones surged 1.4 per cent. This rally in US equities stems largely from growing anticipation that the Fed will deliver an interest rate cut at its September 17 meeting. This move could inject fresh liquidity into risk assets and extend the current uptrend.

Looking into the latest US economic releases, the August consumer price index revealed a nuanced picture of inflation dynamics. Core prices, which strip out volatile food and energy components, increased by 0.3 per cent monthly and 3.1 per cent year-over-year, aligning closely with economist projections and signalling that underlying inflationary pressures remain contained but persistent.

Headline CPI ticked up by 0.4 per cent in August, marking an acceleration from prior months and pushing the annual rate to 2.9 per cent, the highest since early 2025. This uptick can be attributed in part to businesses preemptively passing on costs related to anticipated tariffs under the Trump administration’s trade policies, which have begun to ripple through supply chains and consumer goods pricing.

Concurrently, weekly jobless claims surged to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years and exceeding market forecasts, highlighting emerging softness in the labor market. This jump in unemployment filings, combined with a slight rise in the jobless rate to 4.2 per cent in August, underscores a weakening employment landscape that has pulled the Fed in conflicting directions: persistent inflation argues for caution, while labor market fragility demands stimulus.

Despite these tensions, the data has cemented bets on a rate reduction, with markets pricing in a 100 per cent chance of at least a 25 basis point cut next week, and roughly 50 per cent odds of a more aggressive 50 basis point move.

Bond markets have reacted accordingly, with US Treasuries posting gains overnight. The 10-year yield dipped 2.5 basis points to 4.02 per cent, while the 2-year yield edged down 0.2 basis points to 3.54 per cent, reflecting investor flight to safety amid the mixed economic signals. The US Dollar Index consolidated with a modest 0.3 per cent decline, as traders weighed the implications of looser policy on currency strength.

Commodities presented a more varied picture: gold slipped 0.2 per cent, maintaining its role as a hedge against uncertainty, but Brent crude tumbled 1.7 per cent below US$67 per barrel, pressured by ongoing oversupply fears from OPEC+ production and sluggish global demand. These movements illustrate a market in transition, where the promise of Fed easing supports equities and bonds, yet commodity weakness hints at underlying economic headwinds that could temper the enthusiasm.

Turning to the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin has captured particular attention with its 1.55 per cent rise over the past 24 hours, outpacing the broader crypto market’s 1.83 per cent gain. This daily uptick aligns with a weekly advance of 3.82 per cent, though it trails behind monthly and quarterly averages, down 3.1 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively.

As of September 12, 2025, Bitcoin hovers around US$114,290, having rebounded from recent lows near US$111,500 but still testing resistance at US$115,000. This price action occurs against a backdrop of several bullish catalysts. Foremost among them is the heightened probability of Fed rate cuts, which historically boost risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies by lowering borrowing costs and encouraging investment in high-growth sectors. Markets now assign 50 per cent odds to a 50 basis point cut on September 17, a scenario that could flood the system with liquidity and propel Bitcoin higher.

Additionally, regulatory tailwinds from the SEC’s proposed generic listing standards for crypto ETFs promise to streamline approvals for altcoin products, potentially accelerating inflows and broadening market participation. The agency has already greenlit in-kind creations and redemptions for crypto exchange-traded products in August 2025, aligning them with traditional commodity funds and reducing operational frictions. Complementing this, stablecoin reserves on exchanges have swelled to a record US$70 billion, indicating ample dry powder for buying but also raising concerns about potential selling pressure if sentiment sours.

However, beneath this surface buoyancy lurk technical signals that suggest Bitcoin’s uptrend may be faltering. The cryptocurrency has formed a rising wedge pattern on its charts, characterised by two ascending and converging trendlines that often precede bearish reversals. As these lines approach their apex, the risk of a breakdown intensifies, with analysts warning of a potential drop below US$100,000 if support levels give way. The Average Directional Index, a key trend strength indicator, has retreated from a year-to-date peak of 60 to around 24, pointing to diminishing momentum in the current rally.

Compounding this, the Relative Strength Index exhibits a bearish divergence, where the oscillator forms a descending channel even as prices climb, a setup that frequently heralds strong downward breakouts. Recent analyses highlight this divergence on weekly timeframes, with RSI flashing triple bearish signals that echo historical fragility points in equities, such as the 1998 LTCM crisis or the 2008 financial meltdown.

Moreover, Bitcoin’s price action mirrors patterns from past cycles, including a potential double top reminiscent of 2021, which preceded a 77 per cent correction. September’s historical underperformance, averaging negative returns since 2013, adds another layer of caution, with some projections eyeing a dip to US$108,802 or even US$88,000 in a deeper pullback.

Sentiment on social platforms like X reflects this dichotomy, with users debating the Fed cut’s implications. Some warn of a “sell the news” event, where Bitcoin rallies in the lead-up to the announcement only to crash afterward, as the cut, whether 25 or 50 basis points, may already be fully priced in by participants.

Posts highlight JPMorgan’s caution that easing might not trigger a uniform risk-on surge, potentially sparking a broader market dump. Others point to whale selling pressure, with over 100,000 BTC offloaded recently amid frozen corporate buys, and miner outflows turning bearish post-halving.

Bullish voices counter with observations of institutional accumulation, including 1,417 entities holding over 1,000 BTC each, and daily corporate purchases averaging 1,400 BTC, signaling long-term confidence. Threads discuss Bitcoin’s resilience, noting hidden bullish divergences in RSI near oversold levels and a flattening MACD, which could catalyse a rebound if liquidity flows resume. One prominent analyst frames the setup as a consolidation phase, with the Network Value to Transactions ratio at 1.51, well below overvaluation thresholds, suggesting sustainable growth driven by utility rather than speculation.

In my view, while the bearish technical indicators and historical September weakness pose genuine short-term risks, Bitcoin’s trajectory remains fundamentally upward over the longer horizon. The Fed’s impending cut, even if it triggers a knee-jerk selloff, will ultimately enhance liquidity in a way that benefits high-beta assets, such as cryptocurrencies, especially as dollar weakness from policy easing drives capital into alternatives like Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold.”

Regulatory progress on ETFs, coupled with surging stablecoin reserves, underscores growing institutional adoption that could absorb any temporary dips. Historical parallels, such as post-halving Septembers leading to Q4 surges, suggest this correction might be a buying opportunity rather than a prelude to collapse.

That said, a failure to hold US$113,500 support could accelerate downside toward US$100,000, validating the wedge breakdown. Investors should monitor the Fed’s decision closely: a 50 basis point surprise might ignite a rally to US$120,000, as some inverse head-and-shoulders patterns imply, while a cautious 25 basis point trim could extend the choppiness.

Overall, the interplay of macro easing and crypto-specific tailwinds tilts the scales toward optimism, provided global growth holds steady amid tariff uncertainties. This moment feels like a pivotal inflection point, where patience and data-driven positioning will separate winners from those caught in volatility’s grip.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-great-divergence-how-us-inflation-jobless-claims-and-crypto-charts-are-clashing-ahead-of-the-feds-big-decision-20250912/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The calm before the surge: Fed easing, crypto clarity, and markets at a crossroads

The calm before the surge: Fed easing, crypto clarity, and markets at a crossroads

The softer-than-expected Producer Price Index data for August, which showed a 0.1 per cent month-over-month decline, has fuelled expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting. July’s figures also underwent a downward revision, reinforcing the narrative of cooling inflation pressures that could ease the burden on consumers and businesses alike.

This development arrives at a pivotal moment, with core PPI rising 2.8 per cent year-over-year, below forecasts, suggesting that demand may soften further in the coming months. Traders now price in the rate cut with near certainty, viewing it as a supportive measure for economic growth without igniting undue inflationary risks.

This measured approach by the Fed strikes a balance, preventing overly aggressive easing that might destabilise the dollar while providing enough stimulus to sustain the ongoing recovery.

Legal twist in Fed leadership

Amid this backdrop, a notable legal twist has emerged in the Federal Reserve’s leadership dynamics. A US district court granted a temporary injunction blocking President Trump’s attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to remain in her position during ongoing legal proceedings. The ruling, issued by Judge Jia Cobb, underscores the protections embedded in the Federal Reserve Act, which permits removal of governors only for cause, though the term lacks a precise definition.

Cook, appointed during the prior administration, has advocated for policies emphasising economic equity and data-driven decisions, often clashing with the current White House’s preferences. The administration plans to appeal, but for now, this decision maintains continuity at the Fed, potentially averting disruptions ahead of key policy announcements.

From my perspective, such interventions highlight the importance of institutional independence, ensuring that monetary policy remains insulated from short-term political pressures, which ultimately benefits market stability.

Market reactions in equities and bonds

US equities reflected this buoyant sentiment, with major indices posting gains on September 10, 2025. The S&P 500 climbed 0.3 per cent to close at a record high of 6,512.61, driven by strength in the energy sector as oil prices rose. The Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.03 per cent, also hitting fresh peaks, as technology stocks were buoyed by anticipation of lower borrowing costs.

In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.5 per cent, weighed down by select under-performers in industrial and consumer goods. Energy stocks led the advance, capitalising on heightened geopolitical tensions that pushed crude prices higher. Bond markets echoed this positivity, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping 1.5 basis points to 3.544 per cent and the 10-year yield falling 4.3 basis points to 4.045 per cent following robust demand at a recent note auction.

These movements signal investor confidence in a soft landing scenario, where inflation tames without derailing growth. This is a healthy rotation, with bonds attracting inflows as equities consolidate gains, setting the stage for sustained upward momentum if the Fed delivers as expected.

Currency and commodity movements

Currency and commodity markets displayed mixed but generally stable behaviour.

The US Dollar Index ended flat at 97.78, hovering near recent lows as rate cut bets tempered its appeal. Gold consolidated around US$3,640 per ounce, maintaining its safe-haven allure amid global uncertainties, though it faced mild profit-taking after recent highs. Brent crude advanced 1.7 per cent, climbing toward US$67 per barrel, propelled by escalating tensions between Russia and Poland alongside persistent Middle East instability.

These dynamics underscore the interplay between geopolitics and energy supply, with potential disruptions keeping prices elevated. Asian equity indices showed varied performance in early trading on September 11, while US futures pointed to a higher open, suggesting the positive mood could spill over.

In my opinion, commodities like oil and gold serve as barometers for broader risk appetite, and their current trajectories align with a world navigating recovery amid lingering threats.

SEC’s pivot on crypto regulation

Shifting focus to the regulatory landscape, SEC Chair Paul S. Atkins delivered a pivotal address at the Inaugural OECD Roundtable on Global Financial Markets in Paris on September 10, 2025, marking a transformative moment for digital assets. Atkins boldly proclaimed that crypto’s time has come, critiquing past reliance on enforcement actions that he argued stifled US competitiveness and drove innovation abroad. He highlighted how entrepreneurs wasted resources on legal defences rather than business development, labelling that era as history.

Introducing Project Crypto, Atkins outlined a shift toward a structured regulatory framework, promising transparent and predictable rules to foster domestic growth. This initiative aligns with President Trump’s directive to position America as the global leader in cryptocurrency, drawing on the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets.

Key elements include modernising securities rules for blockchain, ensuring on-chain capital raising, and declaring that most crypto tokens do not qualify as securities. Atkins advocated for super-app platforms that integrate trading, lending, and staking under a single regulatory umbrella, with flexible custody options to empower users.

He praised Europe’s MiCA framework and called for international collaboration, emphasising the need for minimal intervention to protect investors while fostering competition. Reactions on social media platforms like X have been overwhelmingly positive, with users hailing it as a new dawn for the industry.

In my view, this pivot represents a long-overdue acknowledgment of crypto’s potential, rectifying years of adversarial oversight that hampered progress. By prioritising clarity over confrontation, the SEC could unlock trillions in economic value, attracting talent and capital back to US shores and solidifying the nation’s leadership in fintech.

Bitcoin’s technical and market outlook

This regulatory optimism has invigorated the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, which trades above US$114,000 as of September 11, 2025, reflecting a 2.5 per cent gain over the past 24 hours. Technical indicators bolster a bullish outlook, with Bitcoin reclaiming its 7-day simple moving average at US$111,475 and 30-day exponential moving average at US$112,609. The MACD histogram has turned positive at +466.15, signalling building momentum, while the RSI-14 sits at 54.32, indicating neutral territory without overbought risks.

Historic Bollinger Bands have tightened to extreme levels, often preceding significant volatility. A completed cup-and-handle pattern suggests upward breakout potential. A shakeout pattern analysis points to the next milestone around US$130,000, with weakening resistance levels paving the way.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs continues to rise, countering the classic bull cycle correction phase. Holding above the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$113,836 affirms bullish control, and a close over US$115,864 could propel prices toward the US$120,000 to US$124,457 resistance zone. However, trading volume, up only 19.88 per cent from the 24-hour average, warrants caution regarding the rally’s sustainability. Discussions on X echo this sentiment, with analysts predicting surges to US$300,000 based on these metrics.

Personally, I align with the user’s prediction of US$150,000 by year-end, viewing it as achievable given the confluence of regulatory tailwinds, technical setups, and macroeconomic easing. Yet, I temper enthusiasm with realism, noting that low volumes could invite pullbacks if external shocks arise.

Final thoughts

Looking ahead, the interplay between these elements paints a promising picture for global finance. The Fed’s impending rate cut, combined with the SEC’s pro-crypto stance, could catalyse a virtuous cycle of investment and innovation. Bitcoin’s trajectory, supported by robust fundamentals, positions it as a bellwether for digital assets, potentially drawing in more mainstream adoption.

Challenges remain, including geopolitical risks that buoy oil but unsettle equities, as well as the ongoing legal battles at institutions such as the Fed. Nevertheless, the current buoyancy in risk sentiment feels grounded in data rather than hype.

I believe this moment heralds a maturation phase for crypto, where regulation enhances rather than hinders progress. If Project Crypto delivers on its promises, the US could indeed become the epicentre of blockchain advancement, benefiting investors, entrepreneurs, and the economy at large. The path forward demands vigilance, but the foundations appear stronger than ever.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-calm-before-the-surge-fed-easing-crypto-clarity-and-markets-at-a-crossroads-20250911/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j