Tag Archives: fell

Bitcoin dropped from $86,500 to $81,000 in days. Are you worried?

Bitcoin dropped from $86,500 to $81,000 in days. Are you worried?

Key Points:

  1. Bitcoin trades $80,550 to $81,000, down 3.3% to 4% in 24h from $86,500. Ethereum trades $2,410 to $2,470, down 5.7% to 6% from above $2,700. Total crypto market cap fell 2.53% to $2.76T.

  2. Bitcoin drop below $77,000 triggered $303.08M in BTC long liquidations, a 62.97% surge. Volume rose 15.02% overall and 65.95% in derivatives. Excessive leverage turned a pullback into an accelerated decline.

  3. Ethereum fell 8.62% over 7d partly on fears AI could break elliptic-curve cryptography. NEAR fell 15.79% after a 91.61% 30d rally. ZEC fell 10.39% after a 567.13% 30d rally. Profit-taking hit overheated altcoins.

  4. Market tests Fibonacci 50% retracement at $2.76T. Next critical level is 61.8% at $2.71T. A break below could target swing low of $2.57T. Crypto shows 75% correlation with Nasdaq-100 (QQQ).

 

Bitcoin trades around $80,550 to $81,000. Ethereum trades near $2,410 to $2,470. Both assets dropped sharply on October 9, 2026. An aggressive deleveraging wave and broader macro risk-off sentiment drove the decline. Bitcoin fell about 3.3% to 4% over the last 24 hours. It dropped from weekly highs near $86,500. Ethereum fell about 5.7% to 6% over the same period. It retreated from weekly levels above $2,700. The total crypto market capitalization fell 2.53% to $2.76T in 24 hours. A massive liquidation cascade primarily drove this move. The crypto market shows a 75% correlation with the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ). That correlation signals a shared macro-driven move. This sell-off is not isolated. It reflects a broader risk-off mood across financial markets. Investors have shown little appetite for speculative positions in this environment. The crypto sector is feeling the same pressure that weighs on technology stocks and other risk assets.

The primary reason for this sell-off is a concentrated wave of long liquidations. Bitcoin led the forced closures. More than $300M in leveraged positions disappeared. The drop below $77,000 triggered a concentrated liquidation wave. Over 24 hours, $303.08M in BTC long positions faced forced closure. That figure marks a 62.97% surge from the prior period. This forced selling in the largest asset spilled over and pressured the entire market. Excessive leverage acted as fuel. It turned a routine pullback into an accelerated decline. High volume spiked 15.02% overall. Derivatives volume spiked 65.95%. These volume spikes confirm panic selling and position unwinding. The cascade did not spare Ethereum. The second-largest asset suffered its own wave of liquidations. The entire crypto ecosystem felt the aftershock as traders rushed to reduce exposure.

Traders should watch for a sustained drop in open interest and funding rates. Such a drop would signal that deleveraging is cooling. Until that happens, prices remain vulnerable to further bouts of forced selling. The current environment rewards caution. Excessive leverage built up in the system over recent weeks. That leverage created a fragile structure. When prices dipped below key thresholds, the structure collapsed. The high volume confirms that many participants exited positions in a hurry. Panic selling often marks a short-term bottom. It can also precede further declines if support levels fail. The next few sessions will reveal whether the deleveraging has run its course. A calm derivatives market would provide the first real sign of stability. Until then, every rally attempt faces the risk of another liquidation cascade.

Secondary pressures came from sector-specific worries. Ethereum fell 8.62% over 7d. Fears that artificial intelligence could break elliptic-curve cryptography partly drove that drop. Coinbase’s cryptographer debated this issue. The debate sparked concern among holders. At the same time, overheated altcoins saw sharp profit-taking. NEAR and ZEC corrected after extended rallies. NEAR fell 15.79%. ZEC fell 10.39%. Those declines followed massive 30d rallies. NEAR had gained 91.61%. ZEC had gained 567.13%. The sell-off was not monolithic. It combined technical profit-taking in overbought altcoins with nascent, fear-driven narratives about core blockchain security. These narratives added a new layer of uncertainty to an already fragile ecosystem. The AI cryptography discussion matters for the long term. In the short term, it gave traders another reason to sell. The debate itself is healthy. Panic selling based on it is not. Ethereum’s 8.62% 7d decline outpaced Bitcoin’s 24 hour drop, which shows altcoins carry more beta in this risk-off phase.

The near-term outlook hinges on key technical levels. The market is testing a key Fibonacci 50% retracement level at $2.76T. The immediate path depends on whether this support holds. The next critical level is the 61.8% retracement at $2.71T. Upcoming macro cues, such as the next FOMC decision, will influence broader risk appetite. A hold above $2.71T could lead to a period of consolidation and base-building. A break below that level would likely trigger another leg down toward the swing low of $2.57T. This risk is especially high if leveraged long positions rebuild too quickly and become vulnerable again. The asset class needs time to heal. It also needs a calmer macro backdrop. The correlation with the Nasdaq-100 means crypto will struggle to rally if technology stocks remain under pressure. The $2.76T level matters as the first test. The $2.71T level matters as the last line of defense before $2.57T.

In my view, this downturn is a violent deleveraging event. It is not a fundamental rejection of the asset class. Excessive leverage built up across BTC and altcoins. The liquidation cascade provided a brutal reset. The AI cryptography fears, while legitimate in the long run, have amplified short-term panic. The core technology behind Bitcoin and Ethereum remains sound. The cryptographic community continues to work on quantum-resistant solutions. The real risk is not that AI will break elliptic-curve cryptography tomorrow. The real risk is that fear over such a possibility could drive investors away from the asset class. The macro environment is the more pressing concern. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance and geopolitical tensions simmer, crypto will struggle to mount a sustained recovery. The $2.71T level is the line in the sand. If it holds, we could see stabilization in the coming weeks. If it breaks, prices may need to retest their July lows. The pain could extend well into the final quarter of the year.

Market Outlook: Bearish Pressure. The downturn was primarily a violent deleveraging event. Sector-specific anxieties and profit-taking amplified it. The ability to stabilize now depends on holding key technical supports and avoiding another buildup of speculative long leverage. Will the $2.71T level hold, or is a retest of the July lows ahead? The answer will shape the direction of the crypto sector for weeks to come. For now, caution remains the order of the day.

 

Source:

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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Why crypto surged while stocks fell: The regulatory breakthrough changing everything

Why crypto surged while stocks fell: The regulatory breakthrough changing everything
Market activity today unfolded under heavy geopolitical tension, with the Iran conflict driving volatility across global risk assets. Investors traded in the fog of war, where headlines about supply disruptions triggered rapid portfolio shifts. Asian equities weakened, with Japanese and Hong Kong futures pointing lower, while Australian stocks fell more than one per cent. US S&P 500 contracts slid 0.9 per cent as uncertainty mounted. Oil extended gains for a second session on Middle East supply concerns, pushing inflation expectations higher. Bond markets reacted with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.16 per cent. Gold held near US$5,192 per ounce, though its stability reflected caution more than conviction. Traditional markets moved in lockstep with conflict narratives.

Against this stress, cryptocurrency gained 0.64 per cent, lifting the total market cap to US$2.39T. Crypto showed a negative 37 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 and a negative 53 per cent with gold, signalling decoupling from traditional flows. Digital assets responded to regulatory progress and institutional validation instead. A White House announcement on March 11 ended the prior administration’s war on crypto and flagged a potential market bill by April. This shift reduced a major overhang on institutional participation. Markets priced in higher odds of favourable US legislation, creating a fundamental tailwind that outweighed geopolitical headwinds.

Institutional moves reinforced this optimism. Mastercard expanded its Crypto Partner Program to include Ripple and Binance, validating real-world use cases for payments and custody. Such partnerships lower adoption barriers for enterprise clients. Speculative capital also rotated into higher-beta altcoins. The Altcoin Season Index rose 2.56 per cent, while low-cap tokens like Origin Protocol saw volumes surge over 2200 per cent without project-specific news. Excess liquidity chased asymmetric opportunities in a more permissive regulatory environment. Institutional groundwork and retail speculation combined to create self-reinforcing momentum that kept crypto buoyant as equities faltered.

Technical structure now guides the near-term path. The market faces resistance at the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci level of US$2.4T. A decisive break above, especially on a weekly close, could target US$2.46T. Failure to hold US$2.33T, the 50 per cent Fibonacci level, might renew selling pressure and trap prices in consolidation. These levels reflect collective psychology around regulatory clarity as a structural shift. The Fibonacci framework gives traders a common language for managing risk at this inflection.

Negative correlations with traditional assets reveal an important insight. Crypto’s move appears to be dollar- and liquidity-driven rather than conventional risk-on. When equities fall amid war fears, and gold holds steady while crypto rises amid regulatory news, maturity is evolving. Digital assets increasingly respond to their own catalysts, especially policy developments affecting compliance and institutional access. This does not make crypto immune to macro shocks, but the market now weighs regulatory signals more heavily than short-term geopolitical noise. The White House pivot represents the most significant such signal in years.

Sustainability depends on follow-through. Concrete legislative progress by mid-April is needed to maintain bullish momentum. Traders should watch ETF flows and whether altcoin volume persists. The next US CPI release could reintroduce inflation concerns affecting all risk assets. The current setup favours cautious optimism. Regulatory momentum provides a foundation, partnerships add utility, and technical levels offer clear risk parameters. The key question is whether altcoin momentum holds if Bitcoin fails to break US$2.4T. A rejection might trigger consolidation without invalidating the broader regulatory thesis.

I view this regulatory inflection as a structural game-changer. Years of ambiguous policy discounted digital asset valuations, especially for institutional capital needing compliance clarity. The White House’s commitment to an April bill begins removing that discount. This does not guarantee immediate adoption, but it shifts the probabilities toward greater integration with traditional finance. Mastercard partnerships exemplify this integration. When payment giants embrace crypto rails, they build infrastructure lasting beyond any news cycle. Speculative altcoin rotations reflect a market testing new permissiveness, typical in early regulatory transitions where uncertainty drives broad experimentation.

Negative correlations with equities and gold support crypto maturing into a distinct asset class. Past crises saw digital assets move with conventional risk flows. Today’s divergence suggests a nuanced reality where investors separate geopolitical risk from regulatory risk. When regulatory conditions improve while geopolitical tensions worsen, decoupling emerges. This does not promise permanent macro insulation, but policy developments can outweigh short-term geopolitical noise in determining direction.

In conclusion, traditional assets grappled with war-related uncertainty, while crypto advanced amid regulatory clarity. The 0.64 per cent gain to US$2.39T, with negative correlations to equities and gold, reflects a market responding to its own catalysts. Policy shifts, institutional partnerships, and speculative rotation created a bullish impulse now testing technical levels. A break above US$2.4T could open the path to US$2.46T, while a break below US$2.33T signals consolidation. The broader narrative remains cautiously optimistic. Regulatory momentum supports sustained institutional adoption even as short-term trading stays headline-sensitive. The coming weeks will show whether Washington’s promises become legislative reality, but crypto’s divergence underscores its evolving role in the global financial system.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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Why Bitcoin fell from US$100k to mid US$60k amid macro uncertainty

Why Bitcoin fell from US$100k to mid US$60k amid macro uncertainty

Bitcoin faces a multi-day losing streak that analysts identify as the harshest reset since past major bear markets. The asset peaked above US$100,000 in October 2025 before falling roughly 50 per cent to the mid US$60,000s. A sharp flush to about US$60,000 on 5 February triggered heavy forced selling and extreme options demand for downside protection.

Volatility and derivatives stress levels are at levels last seen during the FTX era and the 2018-style resets. On-chain and valuation metrics have shifted into early bear-market territory. Sentiment sits near extreme fear, with the Fear & Greed Index at 6. This reading marks the second-lowest ever. Key support zones now focus around US$60,000 and roughly US$55,000. Investors watch ETF flows and whether on-chain composite indices recover or slide further toward full capitulation zones.

The streak reflects broad de-risking across spot, derivatives, and ETF flows after a very extended bull run. Analysts at K33 and Bitcoin Magazine describe capitulation-like conditions in volume, funding, and options skew as BTC approached US$60,000. Daily RSI sits near 16. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen around US$400 million in weekly net outflows.

A big drop in assets under management from a 2025 peak has removed an important source of incremental demand. This data suggests the market struggles to find buyers at current levels. The structure looks more like the early part of a bear phase than a brief correction. This implies longer, choppy sideways to down price action appears likely.

CryptoQuant’s Combined Market Index blends valuation, profitability, spending behaviour, and sentiment. This index dropped to around 0.2. Analysts linked this zone to the early stages of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets rather than a mid-cycle dip. A separate heatmap of 10 major on-chain metrics shows all key signals in the red band. These signals include trader profit margins and network activity. Conditions remain inconsistent with new highs in the short term.

Realised price tracks the average cost basis of all BTC. This metric currently stands at around US$55,000. Past cycle lows have often formed 24 to 30 per cent below it. This places a potential high-risk, high-reward zone around that area if history repeats. Analysts flag US$60,000 to US$62,000 as a critical support band. K33 work suggests consolidation between roughly US$60,000 and US$75,000 now forms the base case. Deeper downside awaits if US$60,000 fails.

Broader market context adds weight to this cautious outlook. Major US stock indices ended slightly higher on February 17, 2026. The session saw the S&P 500 swing between gains and losses as investors grappled with persistent fears regarding AI expenditures. The S&P 500 rose 0.1 per cent to close at 6,843.22. It found support near its 100-day moving average after an initial drop of nearly one per cent.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.14 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 32.26 points to settle at 49,533.19. Financials and real estate each rose approximately 1.1 per cent. In contrast, the energy sector fell 1.4 per cent, and consumer staples dropped 1.5 per cent. General Mills sank seven per cent after cutting its annual outlook. The technology-heavy Nasdaq faced pressure from a 2.2 per cent drop in software-focused ETFs.

Commodities signalled risk-off behaviour. Gold prices plummeted more than two per cent. Prices fell below US$5,000 to settle at around US$4,884 per ounce. Oil prices dropped roughly two per cent to a two-week low. Brent crude settled at US$67.42 and WTI at US$62.33. Reports of a new window of opportunity for a potential nuclear deal reduced safe-haven demand for gold. This also lowered the risk premium on oil. AI anxiety triggered a bout of volatile trading.

Scepticism about tech giants’ ability to monetise their high AI expenditures worried investors. Dip buyers helped indices recover by the close. Liquidity remained thin following the US Presidents’ Day holiday and ongoing Lunar New Year closures in China and Hong Kong. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up slightly to 4.06 per cent. The 2-year yield rose to 3.439 per cent.

My view synthesises these disjointed signals into a coherent narrative. The Bitcoin reset aligns with broader macro uncertainty. While stock indices closed slightly higher, the underlying volatility suggests fragility. The drop in gold alongside Bitcoin indicates a liquidation of safe havens rather than a rotation into risk. The US$400 million weekly ETF outflows confirm institutional hesitation. Investors need multiple consecutive days of strong inflows to reset the current bearish regime. The realised price near US$55,000 offers a logical floor, yet history suggests prices could dip 24 to 30 per cent below this level.

The BCMI at 0.2 reinforces the bear market comparison. Traders should focus less on picking an exact bottom. Focus remains on whether US$60,000 and the realised price hold. ETFs and on-chain signals must stabilise before optimism returns. The current environment demands patience as the market searches for a true bottom amidst economic crosscurrents.

AI scepticism in equities and crypto derivatives highlights shared sensitivity to liquidity conditions across asset classes. This parallel suggests that the crypto downturn is not isolated from traditional finance movements. Investors observe that doubts about technology expenditure in the stock market mirror the de-risking seen in Bitcoin derivatives.

Both markets react sharply to changes in yield expectations and risk appetite. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.06 per cent, adding pressure to valuation models for high-growth assets. Higher yields typically reduce the present value of future cash flows for tech firms and diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. This correlation strengthens the argument for a cautious approach until yields stabilise.

Nevertheless, the path forward involves navigating choppy sideways action until clear recovery signals emerge.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-bitcoin-fell-from-us100k-to-mid-us60k-amid-macro-uncertainty-20260218/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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