Crypto and global finance: A dance of optimism, politics, and market volatility

Crypto and global finance: A dance of optimism, politics, and market volatility

Key Points:

– US markets show caution with MSCI US index up just 0.01%, while US Treasury yields at 4.48% after a fifth week of decline, influenced by weaker retail sales.
– Trump’s tariff announcement adds complexity with unclear impacts, prompting EU retaliation threats, yet hopes for negotiation to avoid trade war.
– Japan’s economy remains strong, expanding for three quarters, potentially leading to more rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, affecting global investments.
– Currency and commodity markets react; US Dollar down 0.6%, Gold retreats 1.6%, and Brent crude falls 0.4% amid US geopolitical moves in Ukraine.
– HSCEI surges in Asia, up 4.1% to a two-year high, fueled by tech optimism from China’s AI advancements, signaling growth in tech sectors.
– Crypto politics spotlight after Argentina’s President Milei’s crypto endorsement leads to controversy and potential impeachment, highlighting risks in politically linked cryptocurrencies.

 

My observations on February 17, 2025: The global financial scene is currently walking a tightrope between cautious optimism and palpable tension, reflected in the varied outcomes of US stock markets and a clear decline in US. Treasury yields. This situation has developed amidst crucial economic data and political statements that could steer market trends in the near future.

Starting with the US markets, the MSCI US index barely moved, registering just a +0.01 per cent increase, reflecting a tentative market sentiment. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell by 2 basis points to end the week at 4.48per cent, marking its fifth consecutive weekly decline, a trend not seen since 2021.

This decline occurred amidst a stark miss in US retail sales, which dropped by 0.9 per cent against expectations of a mere 0.1 per cent decrease. This drop to the lowest level in nearly two years suggests that consumers might have preemptively increased their spending in the last quarter of the previous year, possibly in anticipation of price hikes due to looming tariffs.

The political arena added another layer of complexity with President Trump’s announcement regarding new automobile tariffs set for April 2. The lack of specifics on these tariffs has left markets in suspense, with investors and businesses alike trying to forecast the potential impact on both domestic and global trade dynamics. The response from the European Union was swift, with German Chancellor Scholz indicating a readiness to retaliate against any US tariffs, yet expressing a preference for negotiation to avoid escalating into a full-blown trade war.

Shifting focus to Asia, Japan’s economy showed resilience, expanding for the third consecutive quarter, surpassing expectations. This performance has bolstered expectations that the Bank of Japan might continue its trajectory towards further rate hikes, a move that could influence global investment flows given Japan’s significant role in the world economy.

The currency markets reflected this global uncertainty with the US Dollar Index declining by 0.6 per cent, indicating a softening of the dollar against other major currencies. Gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset, experienced a retreat of 1.6 per cent, perhaps suggesting a nuanced investor response to the current economic indicators and geopolitical developments.

In the oil sector, Brent crude saw a 0.4 per cent decline, influenced by anticipated increases in oil supply from Iraq and Russia, with geopolitical manoeuvres by the US aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine potentially impacting future oil prices.

In stock markets, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) surged by 4.1 per cent, closing above 8,300, hitting a two-year high driven by optimism in tech stocks following China’s advancements in generative AI. This has implications not only for tech sectors but also for investor sentiment towards emerging technologies and their potential to drive economic growth.

However, amidst these economic and market movements, a peculiar narrative involving cryptocurrency and politics has emerged, particularly with politicians inadvertently or directly linked to what are colloquially known as “rugpulls” or scams in the crypto space. The case of Argentina’s President Javier Milei recommending a little-known cryptocurrency, US$LIBRE, which saw a dramatic rise and then a precipitous fall, has sparked controversy. This incident has led to discussions about impeachment by the opposition, highlighting the perilous intersection of political influence and cryptocurrency markets.

Further investigation by crypto analysts like Bubblemaps has revealed potential connections between the creators of US$LIBRE and other meme coins, including one associated with the US First Lady, Melania Trump, under the ticker #MELANIA. This network of seemingly related cryptocurrencies raises questions about the integrity of these ventures, suggesting a coordinated effort to capitalise on political figures’ names for financial gain. The cautionary advice from these events is clear: the crypto market, especially around meme coins or those endorsed by public figures without substantial backing, remains fraught with risks of manipulation and sudden value drops.

Adding to the crypto narrative, the withdrawal of over US$2.45 billion worth of Ethereum from exchanges within a short span indicates a strong accumulation trend among investors, possibly signalling confidence in Ethereum’s long-term value or a strategic move to reduce supply on trading platforms, which could theoretically lead to price increases due to reduced sell pressure.

In conclusion, the current global financial environment is characterised by a mix of economic data interpretation, political announcements, and the volatile yet intriguing world of cryptocurrencies. Investors are navigating through this landscape with caution, balancing between hopeful economic signals from regions like Japan and the potential disruptions from trade policies and crypto market manipulations.

The advice, particularly in the realm of cryptocurrencies linked to political figures, remains to steer clear of investments that lack solid fundamentals or where the potential for manipulation seems high. This complex interplay of economic data, policy announcements, and emerging digital asset trends underscores the need for thorough research and a cautious investment strategy in these uncertain times.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-and-global-finance-a-dance-of-optimism-politics-and-market-volatility-20250217/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Trump’s CBDC ban to boost crypto adoption, Musk’s dad plans $200M memecoin raise: Finance Redefined

Trump’s CBDC ban to boost crypto adoption, Musk’s dad plans $200M memecoin raise: Finance Redefined

US President Donald Trump’s latest executive order may bolster institutional cryptocurrency adoption, as his ban on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) signals a “bet” on the existing crypto ecosystem, industry watchers told Cointelegraph.

Capitalizing on the recent success of the Trump family’s memecoins, Elon Musk’s father seeks to raise up to $200 million from a meme token already launched at the end of December.

Trump’s executive order a “game-changer” for institutional crypto adoption

Trump’s executive order banning the creation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in the United States may mark a significant shift in institutional cryptocurrency adoption, according to industry executives.

The executive order, signed Jan. 23, prohibits the establishment, issuance, circulation or use of CBDCs, citing concerns over their potential to threaten financial system stability, individual privacy and national sovereignty.

The executive order’s CBDC ban is a “game-changer” for the crypto industry in the US, according to Anndy Lian, an author and intergovernmental blockchain adviser.

Likewise, Trump’s new crypto task force signals a clearer, “more structured” crypto regulatory landscape, Lian told Cointelegraph.

Elon Musk’s dad plans $200M raise with “Musk It” memecoin

Elon Musk’s father may be the next influential figure to raise funds through a memecoin amid growing interest in celebrity-backed meme tokens.

Retail investor interest returned to memecoins after President Donald Trump launched the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin on Jan. 18, followed by the Official Melania (MELANIA) token on Jan. 19 on the Solana network.

Joining the ranks, Elon Musk’s father, Errol Musk, is reportedly looking to launch his own memecoin token project called Musk It (MUSKIT).

Musk’s father hopes to raise as much as $200 million from the memecoin project, which he plans to use to support a for-profit think tank called the Musk Institute, he told Fortune.

Crypto mobile wallets hit 36M record high amid growing retail adoption

Mobile cryptocurrency users have reached a new all-time high, as Increasingly more passive cryptocurrency holders are turning into active users, showcasing growing mainstream adoption.

Mobile cryptocurrency wallets reached a new all-time high of over 36 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to Coinbase’s quarterly crypto market report published on Jan. 29.

“Mobile wallets can play a critical role in turning passive crypto owners into active crypto users,” wrote Daren Matsuoka, data scientist at a16z Crypto.

While crypto owners only hold digital assets passively, they are considered cryptocurrency users after actively interacting with decentralized finance (DeFi) or other blockchain-based applications.

Crypto hacks drop 44% YoY in January, CeFi top target with $69M loss

Cryptocurrency hackers continue stealing user funds, but cybertheft in January was less than in the year-earlier period, flashing a positive sign for the crypto industry.

Crypto hackers stole over $73 million of digital assets across 19 incidents in January, marking a 44% decrease from $133 million in January 2024.

Still, January’s $73 million was a ninefold month-over-month increase from December, when hackers only stole $3.8 million worth of cryptocurrency, according to a Jan. 30 Immunefi report shared with Cointelegraph.

The attack on Singapore-based crypto exchange Phemex was the biggest hit, accounting for over $69 million worth of stolen value, while the $2.5 million hack on Moby Trade options platform was second.

Ethereum price may stick below $3.5K until these 3 things happen

Ether price fell below $3,500 on Jan. 7 and has since struggled to trade above that level. The altcoin has declined by 8% over the past 30 days, while the broader cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 6%. This underperformance is concerning for Ether investors, especially with the launch of the spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) in July 2024.

Traders’ disappointment comes after a period of average Ethereum transaction fees exceeding $2, steady growth in the ETH supply, significant criticism regarding the lack of support from the Ethereum Foundation and memecoin trading shifting to competitor blockchains, particularly Solana.

Three factors could potentially push Ether above $3,500, although some depend on external elements such as regulatory changes.

These include Ethereum’s upcoming Pectra upgrade in the first quarter of 2025, proposed changes in United States ETF regulations and the continued growth of Ethereum layer-2 solutions.

DeFi market overview

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the red.

The Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) token was the week’s biggest loser in the top 100, falling over 44%, followed by Solana-based memecoin Fartcoin (FARTCOIN), down nearly 30% on the weekly chart.

 

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-cbdc-ban-boost-crypto-adoption-musk-dad-200-m-memecoin-raise-finance-redefined

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Bitcoin 30% correction in play ahead of $100K BTC rally — Analysts

Bitcoin 30% correction in play ahead of $100K BTC rally — Analysts

Bitcoin could still see a correction of up to 30% during its uphill battle to conquer the six-figure price tag for the first time.

The Bitcoin BTCtickers down$95,749 price is currently down over 7% from its all-time high of around $99,800, breached on Nov. 22, Cointelegraph data shows.

While most analysts agree that topping $100,000 is only a matter of time, some analysts expect a deeper retracement before the milestone high.

Bitcoin could correct as deep as 30% before resuming its bullish run, according to Ryan Lee, the chief analyst at Bitget Research. The analyst told Cointelegraph:

“In its bid to cross the psychologically important $100,000 price level, investors will need to deal with intense corrections. Historical data trends show that Bitcoin may still correct as much as 30% before it reaches its cyclical top.”

While historical chart patterns aren’t always accurate in predicting future price action, a potential 30% correction from $99,800 would hypothetically tank Bitcoin price below $70,000.

Bitcoin breaching $100,000 is only a matter of time, and ETF inflows

While temporary corrections are an organic part of crypto bull markets, most analysts don’t expect the current correction to be long-lived.

This is because Bitcoin is set to surpass the $100,000 valuation in the short term, according to Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain expert.

He told Cointelegraph:

“Bitcoin reaching $100,000 isn’t just a milestone; it’s a testament to the growing trust in decentralized finance and the relentless pursuit of financial sovereignty. As global adoption accelerates and institutional interest deepens, the $100,000 mark symbolizes not just a price, but a paradigm shift in how we perceive and utilize money.”

Sluggish investments in the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also contributed to Bitcoin’s price slump.

United States-based spot Bitcoin ETFs logged two days of net negative outflows, with net cumulative outflows of over $122 million on Nov. 26, Farside Investors data shows.

While slowing ETF inflows are common at the end of the month, a resurgence in ETF buying will help catalyze Bitcoin’s next leg up, according to Bitfinex analysts, who told Cointelegraph:

“Now that ETF flows appear to have hit a bump in the road and MicroStrategy purchases seem to have paused, it is quite normal for the price to undergo some correction and seek out a new supply-demand equilibrium as marginal buying ends.”

While Bitfinex analysts expect a correction of up to 20%, the analysts are confident that MicroStrategy’s latest $2.6 billion note sale and renewed ETF buying will bolster cryptocurrencies to new all-time highs leading into 2025.

 

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-30-correction-ahead-100k-btc-rally-analysts

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j