Global risk sentiment, which often serves as a barometer for investor confidence, has been notably muted. On Monday, US stock markets took a hit, breaking a multi-session winning streak that had given some hope of sustained optimism.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 0.24 per cent, the S&P 500 dropped 0.64 per cent, and the Nasdaq fell 0.74 per cent, all closing in the red. This downturn came despite encouraging data showing stronger-than-anticipated US services activity and reassuring words from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant about forthcoming trade deals.
It’s a puzzling scenario—positive economic signals clashing with a market that seems reluctant to embrace them. To me, this suggests that investors might be wrestling with deeper uncertainties, perhaps questioning whether these bright spots can hold up against broader economic or geopolitical headwinds.
Diving into the bond market, US Treasury yields painted a different picture, trending upward across the curve, though the pace of increase slowed compared to the previous Friday’s surge. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 3.5 basis points to settle at 4.343 per cent, while the 2-year yield nudged up by 0.8 basis points to 3.832 per cent.
Rising yields often reflect a shift in investor behaviour—selling off bonds, possibly in anticipation of higher inflation or interest rates down the road. Given the positive services data, one might expect this to signal confidence in economic growth. But the disconnect with the stock market’s decline is striking.
It’s as if the bond market sees a robust future that equity investors aren’t yet buying into. Could this be a sign of skepticism about the longevity of the recovery, or are there other forces—like lingering trade tensions or Federal Reserve policy expectations—clouding the picture? I suspect it’s a bit of both, with markets caught in a tug-of-war between optimism and caution.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) took a modest dip, falling 0.20 per cent and weakening against most G10 currencies. This softening of the dollar caught my attention, especially when paired with the dramatic strengthening of the Taiwanese Dollar (TWD). The USD/TWD pair tumbled from 31.0 to 30.10, even hitting an intra-day low of around 29.60.
This wasn’t just a random fluctuation—market chatter points to speculation that Taiwan might be allowing its currency to appreciate as part of a trade deal with the US. If true, this could be a strategic move to bolster economic ties, but it also highlights how sensitive currency markets are to geopolitical rumours and policy shifts.
The dollar’s broader weakness might tie back to the Federal Reserve’s stance or the market’s reaction to trade uncertainties, though I’d need to dig deeper into recent Fed statements to pin that down. For now, it’s a reminder that forex markets are rarely quiet when global stakes are high.
Turning to commodities, the story gets even more intriguing. Gold prices jumped 2.9 per cent, a move I see as a classic flight to safety amid a weaker dollar and persistent trade uncertainty. Investors often flock to gold when confidence wavers, and this uptick fits that pattern. On the flip side, Brent crude oil slid 1.7 per cent, continuing its downward trend after OPEC+ agreed over the weekend to ramp up output. The contrast here is stark—gold shining as a safe haven while oil stumbles under supply pressures.
It’s a dynamic that underscores the uneven currents running through the commodity space, with macroeconomic signals and sector-specific decisions pulling in different directions. Asian equity indices mirrored this uncertainty with mixed results in early trading, and US equity index futures hint at a lower opening for US stocks, suggesting that Monday’s cautious mood isn’t dissipating anytime soon.
Now, let’s shift gears to the cryptocurrency market, where things get particularly fascinating. Bitcoin has been a standout performer, even as traditional markets faltered. According to recent insights from VanEck, Bitcoin posted a 13 per cent gain in April, a sharp contrast to the broader market selloff.
This resilience was especially evident during the week ending April 6, when former President Trump’s announcement of new tariff measures sent shockwaves through global markets. While equities and gold took a hit, Bitcoin climbed from US$81,500 to over US$84,500 by week’s end.
For a moment, it looked like Bitcoin might be breaking free from its usual dance with US equities—a phenomenon analysts call decoupling. The 30-day moving average correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 dipped below 0.25 in early April, fueling hopes that it could carve out a path as an independent asset, perhaps even a hedge against global instability.
But that independence didn’t stick. By the end of April, the correlation rebounded to around 0.55, and Bitcoin fell back into step with equity markets. Still, its 13 per cent gain outpaced the Nasdaq Composite’s one per cent decline and the S&P 500’s modest uptick, marking it as a relative winner.
Also Read:
Market wrap: Consumer confidence drops, markets rise, Bitcoin ETF soars
What’s driving this? Part of it might be institutional moves like Strategy’s—formerly MicroStrategy—recent acquisition of 1,895 Bitcoin for US$180 million, wrapping up a US$21 billion equity offering program launched in October. With their holdings now at roughly 555,500 Bitcoin, valued at US$52.4 billion per their latest SEC filing, Strategy’s commitment signals strong corporate faith in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
This kind of institutional backing could be stabilising Bitcoin’s floor, even as its correlation with stocks waxes and wanes. To me, it’s a sign that Bitcoin is maturing—its volatility has reportedly hit a 563-day low, per CoinTelegraph—yet it’s still searching for its identity in the financial ecosystem.
Ethereum, however, tells a different story, one tinged with struggle. Its dominance in smart contract fees has taken a significant hit as users drift to rival networks, likely drawn by lower costs and faster transactions. This migration isn’t just a blip—it’s a challenge to Ethereum’s core promise as the backbone of decentralised applications. Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, has openly acknowledged the network’s past fixation on complexity, admitting that adjustments are overdue.
His comments hint at a “slimming down” effort, a tacit concession that the grand vision of Ethereum as a “world computer” might be more aspirational than practical. There’s talk of swapping out the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) for RISC-V, which some see as a technical upgrade but others—like me—view as an admission that the layer2 Rollup-Centric strategy has faltered.
While competitors like Solana scoop up users with simpler designs and flashy marketing (think MEME coins), Ethereum is bogged down managing a sprawling web of layer2 solutions. Interoperability among hundreds of L2s sounds ambitious, but in practice, it’s a headache—one that’s driving developers and users away. Buterin’s pivot feels less like a bold reimagining and more like a desperate bid to keep Ethereum relevant.
I can’t help but wonder if this is a case of cutting losses rather than charting a new course. Solana’s gains highlight what Ethereum’s losing: agility and accessibility. Still, Ethereum’s entrenched community and developer base give it a fighting chance—if it can streamline without alienating its core.
Stepping back, the market wrap reveals a world in flux. Global risk sentiment is tepid, with US stocks faltering despite economic green shoots.
Treasury yields are climbing, hinting at growth expectations, yet the dollar’s dip and the TWD’s surge point to trade-driven undercurrents. Commodities split the difference—gold up, oil down—while Bitcoin flexes its muscle but can’t quite break free from equities. Ethereum, meanwhile, grapples with an identity crisis that could reshape its future.
I see this as a moment of reckoning for markets: optimism is there, but it’s fragile, tempered by uncertainties that no trade deal or data point can fully dispel. Investors would do well to watch these threads closely—because in this environment, the next twist is never far off.
Source: https://e27.co/gold-up-oil-down-bitcoin-flexes-what-should-we-expect-next-20250506/
Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.
Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.
An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.