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The new gold standard? Bitcoin’s macro hedge role amid US debt and trade turmoil

The new gold standard? Bitcoin’s macro hedge role amid US debt and trade turmoil

The interplay of global macroeconomic dynamics and cryptocurrency market trends presents a complex tapestry of investor sentiment, speculative positioning, and structural shifts in asset valuation frameworks.

At the forefront of this landscape lies Bitcoin (BTC), whose recent price action and derivatives market metrics have sparked intense scrutiny. Simultaneously, Ethereum’s (ETH) unique capacity to generate organic yield through protocol-level mechanisms offers a stark contrast to Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative.

To dissect these phenomena, we must contextualise Bitcoin’s soaring open interest within broader market psychology while contrasting Ethereum’s yield-generating potential against traditional financial paradigms.

Bitcoin’s derivatives surge: Implications for price dynamics

Bitcoin’s derivatives market has reached unprecedented levels of activity, with total open interest across exchanges hitting US$73.59 billion, a figure that underscores the growing institutionalisation of crypto markets. This metric reflects the total notional value of outstanding futures and options contracts, serving as a barometer for speculative fervour and hedging activity.

The dominance of regulated venues like CME (US$16.71 billion) and Binance (US$12.08 billion) highlights divergent participant profiles: CME’s institutional-heavy structure versus Binance’s retail-driven ecosystem. Such bifurcation amplifies market complexity as macro-hedge funds and algorithmic traders interact with retail sentiment, often leading to asymmetrical price discovery mechanisms.

Historically, surges in open interest have preceded heightened volatility. For instance, Bitcoin’s 2021 bull run saw open interest peak at US$25 billion before a 35 per cent correction, illustrating the liquidation risks inherent in leveraged positions. The current US$73.59 billion figure, however, operates within a transformed regulatory and infrastructural environment.

Institutional-grade custody solutions and improved risk management tools have enhanced market resilience, potentially mitigating cascading liquidations even during sharp corrections. Yet, the concentration of US$28.79 billion in the top two exchanges raises concerns about systemic interconnectivity, particularly given Binance’s recent regulatory challenges and CME’s role as a clearinghouse for macro funds.

The psychological significance of Bitcoin’s US$100,000–US$110,000 range cannot be overstated. Having breached this threshold in May 2025, BTC’s subsequent consolidation reflects a classic accumulation phase, wherein long-term holders absorb volatility while short-term speculators test support levels.

On-chain data revealing 19,400 BTC inflows to institutional wallets corroborates this thesis, suggesting strategic positioning ahead of anticipated catalysts, possibly tied to the US election cycle or ETF approval timelines. Notably, the 0.9 outflow/inflow ratio signals net accumulation, a bullish indicator historically associated with multi-month rallies.

However, the persistent short-side pressure on Binance derivatives, despite BTC’s resilience, introduces a tug-of-war dynamic where capitulation events could trigger explosive moves in either direction.

From a technical perspective, the US$100,000–US$110,000 range may serve as a springboard for a parabolic rally, as suggested by cyclical patterns observed in prior halving cycles. The nine per cent correction to US$98,300 in June 2025 barely grazed the 200-day moving average, preserving the uptrend’s integrity.

Should volume profiles expand alongside institutional inflows, a breakout above US$111,800 could activate algorithmic buy orders, propelling BTC toward US$120,000 by year-end. Conversely, a decisive close below US$95,000 would invalidate this thesis, potentially triggering a retest of US$85,000 support—a scenario deemed low probability by analysts tracking on-chain fundamentals.

Ethereum’s yield paradigm: A structural shift in crypto valuation

While Bitcoin dominates headlines as a macro hedge and digital gold, Ethereum’s evolution into a yield-generating infrastructure asset represents a seismic shift in crypto-economics.

Unlike Bitcoin’s fixed-supply, proof-of-work model, which relies solely on a monetary premium for returns, Ethereum’s post-Merge architecture enables stakers to earn ~three per cent annualised yields through network validation. This organic cash flow mechanism aligns Ethereum with traditional income-producing assets, bridging the gap between decentralised protocols and institutional portfolios.

Staking’s appeal lies in its dual function as both a security mechanism and a revenue stream. By locking ETH to validate transactions, participants secure the network while earning issuance rewards and transaction fees.

Restaking protocols like EigenLayer further amplify yields by allowing staked ETH to secure third-party applications, creating a layered economy of risk and return. This operational model contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s reliance on financial engineering, such as ETFs or lending products, to generate yield, positioning Ethereum as a hybrid between a utility network and a capital asset.

The implications for institutional adoption are profound. Traditional investors, accustomed to dividend-paying equities or coupon-bearing bonds, often struggle to reconcile Bitcoin’s non-yielding nature with portfolio allocation models. Ethereum’s three per cent base yield, however, provides a familiar entry point, particularly for sovereign wealth funds and pension schemes seeking inflation-hedged returns.

BlackRock’s recent filings for an Ethereum ETF underscore this trajectory, signaling a potential influx of US$50 billion or more in institutional capital should regulatory hurdles ease.Moreover, Ethereum’s yield ecosystem extends beyond passive income. Decentralised finance (DeFi) protocols enable dynamic strategies—such as liquidity provision or leveraged staking—that can boost returns to 8–12 per cent, albeit with elevated risk.

This programmable yield, combined with Layer 2 scaling solutions reducing transaction costs, creates a virtuous cycle of capital inflows and network utility. In contrast, Bitcoin’s yield opportunities remain tethered to centralised intermediaries (e.g., BlockFi’s interest accounts), exposing holders to counterparty risks that Ethereum’s trustless staking avoids.

Intermarket dynamics: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and macro resilience

The divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum narratives plays out against a backdrop of global uncertainty. With US Treasury yields climbing toward five per cent and trade wars intensifying, risk assets face headwinds that disproportionately impact high-duration investments.

Bitcoin’s correlation with Nasdaq equities, evident in its muted response to tariff-driven volatility, suggests lingering sensitivity to Fed policy. Ethereum’s staking yield, however, may decouple it from traditional tech valuations, as its cash flows provide downside protection during liquidity crunches.

Gold’s retreat to US$3,300/oz amid dollar strength further highlights Bitcoin’s evolving role as a non-sovereign reserve asset. While gold remains a crisis hedge, its lack of yield and logistical constraints in storage and transmission render it inferior to programmable digital alternatives.

Ethereum’s ability to offer both appreciation potential and income generation could accelerate this substitution effect, particularly in emerging markets grappling with currency debasement and capital controls.

Energy markets also influence crypto dynamics. Brent crude’s rebound to US$70/bbl, despite OPEC+ supply increases, underscores the inflationary pressures that have historically buoyed BTC. Ethereum benefits indirectly, as stable energy prices reduce miner capitulation risks—a concern during Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market.

Furthermore, Ethereum’s energy-efficient proof-of-stake model aligns with ESG mandates, granting it a regulatory advantage in jurisdictions that prioritise sustainability.

Strategic outlook: Navigating the dual narrative

For portfolio managers, the Bitcoin-Ethereum dichotomy demands nuanced allocation strategies. Bitcoin’s role as a macro hedge against fiscal profligacy and currency debasement remains intact, particularly with US gross federal debt exceeding 130 per cent of GDP. Institutions seeking pure exposure to global liquidity expansion should prioritise BTC, leveraging derivatives to hedge against short-term volatility while accumulating during dips in the inflow ratio.

Ethereum, meanwhile, appeals to investors seeking alpha through participation in the protocol. The three per cent staking yield acts as a floor for total returns, with DeFi and NFT ecosystems offering asymmetric upside. A 60/40 BTC-ETH portfolio, rebalanced quarterly, could optimise risk-adjusted returns while capturing both monetary and utility premiums. Retail traders, conversely, may exploit Ethereum’s yield volatility through options straddles or basis trades, capitalising on protocol upgrade cycles.

Regulatory developments will loom large in Q3 and Q4 2025. The SEC’s impending rulings on spot Ethereum ETFs, coupled with MiCA compliance deadlines in Europe, could catalyse a US$200 billion inflow into compliant crypto products. Bitcoin’s derivatives market, now a US$73.59 billion ecosystem, may see regulatory convergence as the CFTC intensifies oversight, a double-edged sword that enhances legitimacy while squeezing unregistered exchanges.

In conclusion, the confluence of derivatives-driven speculation in Bitcoin and Ethereum’s yield revolution encapsulates crypto’s transition from fringe assets to mainstream infrastructure. While Bitcoin’s path hinges on macro resilience and institutional flows, Ethereum’s ascent depends on its ability to sustain yield premiums amid rising competition from layer-2 ecosystems.

Both assets, however, share a common destiny: redefining the storage and transfer of value in an era of unprecedented monetary experimentation. Investors who grasp this duality stand to navigate the volatility ahead with clarity, positioning themselves at the intersection of innovation and tradition.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-new-gold-standard-bitcoins-macro-hedge-role-amid-us-debt-and-trade-turmoil-20250709/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Stocks, treasuries, gold, oil, and Bitcoin in motion: The jobs and policy effect

Stocks, treasuries, gold, oil, and Bitcoin in motion: The jobs and policy effect

At the heart of this storm is the latest US employment report, which has once again defied expectations, alongside the final approval of President Trump’s US$3.4 trillion tax and spending package. These events have sent ripples across asset classes, influencing everything from stock indices and Treasury yields to the US dollar, gold, oil, and even Bitcoin.

I want to share my perspective on their implications and interconnections, while grounding the discussion in the facts and data provided. My aim is to paint a clear picture of the current market landscape, delving into both the opportunities and risks that lie ahead.

The US employment report: Strength with subtle cracks

The US employment report for June has been a focal point for markets, delivering a headline number that suggests continued economic vigour. Nonfarm payrolls, which track the number of jobs added or lost outside the agricultural sector, rose by 147,000, well above the consensus estimate of 106,000. This marks the fourth consecutive month that the labour market has surprised to the upside, reinforcing the narrative of a resilient US economy.

A strong payroll figure typically signals that businesses are confident enough to expand their workforce, a sign of robust demand and economic health. Paired with this, the unemployment rate, a measure of the percentage of the labour force actively seeking work, eased unexpectedly to 4.1 per cent, better than the anticipated 4.3 per cent. This drop suggests a tightening labor market, which could pave the way for wage growth and bolster consumer spending, both critical drivers of economic activity.

However, the report isn’t without its nuances. Beneath these rosy headlines lies a softening in private activity growth, a detail that tempers the optimism. This softening could indicate that, while headline job creation remains strong, specific sectors —perhaps those tied to private investment or discretionary spending —are losing momentum.

From my perspective, this duality in the data is a reminder that economic strength isn’t uniform. The labor market’s resilience is encouraging, but the cracks in private activity suggest that policymakers and investors should remain vigilant. If this softening persists, it could signal broader challenges ahead, especially as the Federal Reserve weighs its next moves on interest rates.

Broader economic indicators: Signs of resilience

Beyond the employment report, other economic indicators suggest that the economy is holding its ground. Initial jobless claims, which count new filings for unemployment benefits, declined in the latest data, as did continuing claims, which track those receiving ongoing support. These reductions imply that job losses are slowing and that unemployed workers are finding new roles more quickly, both positive signs for labor market stability.

Additionally, the ISM Services index, a key gauge of activity in the services sector (which dominates the US economy), returned to expansion territory. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and this rebound suggests that the services sector is shrugging off any prior weakness, contributing to overall economic momentum.

These indicators bolster the case for cautious optimism. The decline in jobless claims aligns with the strong payrolls data, while the ISM Services rebound hints at broad-based resilience. However, I’d caution that these metrics are snapshots, backward-looking by nature, and don’t fully account for future uncertainties, such as the impact of new fiscal policies or global headwinds.

Still, for now, they reinforce the narrative of a US economy that’s weathering challenges better than many had feared.

President Trump’s tax and spending package: A double-edged sword

Shifting to the political arena, President Trump’s US$3.4 trillion tax and spending package has cleared a significant hurdle, passing the House with a razor-thin 218-214 vote. This landmark legislation blends tax cuts with significant spending increases, aiming to juice economic growth while addressing infrastructure and social priorities.

The tax reductions could put more money in the pockets of consumers and businesses, potentially spurring spending and investment. At the same time, the spending component promises to inject capital into the economy, supporting jobs and public projects.

The package’s passage is a double-edged sword. It’s a win for growth-oriented policies, likely contributing to the upbeat mood in equity markets. On the other hand, its hefty price tag raises red flags about the federal deficit, which is already substantial. Critics argue that this could fuel inflation in the long run, forcing the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy more aggressively.

The narrow vote margin underscores the contentious nature of this move—it’s a bold bet on growth, but one that hinges on execution and favorable economic conditions aligning. If successful, it could amplify the current economic momentum; if not, it risks exacerbating fiscal imbalances at a time when resilience is already being tested.

Stock markets: Riding the wave of optimism

The stock market has greeted these developments with open arms. The S&P 500 rose by 0.83 per cent, the NASDAQ climbed 0.99 per cent, and the Dow Jones gained 0.81 per cent. These gains reflect a wave of optimism, likely fuelled by the strong jobs data and the fiscal stimulus promised by Trump’s package.

Investors seem to be betting on higher corporate earnings and consumer demand, both of which could flow from these catalysts. However, early trading signals from Asian equity indices and US futures suggest a potential pullback, hinting at profit-taking or lingering doubts about the sustainability of the rally.

The rally is justified given the data, but it comes with risks. Stocks are sensitive to interest rate expectations, and as we’ll see with Treasury yields, the market is pricing in a shift. If rates rise too quickly, or if global risk sentiment sours, these gains could unwind. For now, though, the upward movement reflects a market eager to embrace good news—a classic case of sentiment driving prices, at least in the short term.

Treasury yields: The bear-flattening signal

The US Treasury yield curve offers a more sobering perspective, undergoing a sharp bear flattening. This phenomenon occurs when short-term yields rise faster than long-term ones, narrowing the gap between them. The two-year Treasury yield jumped 9.5 basis points to 3.880 per cent, while the 10-year yield rose 6.9 basis points to 4.346 per cent.

This shift is tied to the strong jobs report, which has recalibrated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Investors now anticipate a tighter policy stance to curb potential inflation, pushing short-term yields higher as bond prices fall.

A flatter yield curve can signal mixed messages. Historically, an inverted curve (where short-term yields exceed long-term ones) has foreshadowed recessions, but we’re not there yet. Instead, this bear flattening suggests confidence in near-term growth, hence the rise in yields, but tempered expectations for the longer haul.

I view this as a natural market adjustment to the data. It serves as a reminder that borrowing costs are creeping up, which could eventually weigh on growth-sensitive sectors such as housing or corporate investment.

US dollar and gold: A tale of strength and retreat

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.4 per cent after the jobs report. A stronger dollar often follows robust economic data, as it boosts demand for dollar-denominated assets and signals tighter policy ahead. This strength, however, pressured gold, which slid 0.9 per cent to US$3,326 per ounce. Gold thrives in times of uncertainty or low interest rates, but with yields rising and the dollar strengthening, its appeal as a haven is diminishing.

I view the dollar’s recovery as a logical outcome of the data, though its export-dampening effects could pose challenges. Gold’s decline, meanwhile, doesn’t surprise me. It’s a classic reaction to this environment. That said, if geopolitical risks or inflation fears resurface, gold could regain its lustre quickly.

Brent crude: Balancing supply and demand

Brent crude oil slipped 0.4 per cent to US$69 per barrel, even as OPEC+ prepares to add 411,000 barrels per day in August. This drop likely reflects concerns about demand, possibly tied to global growth uncertainties, outweighing the supply increase for now.

The direction of oil prices will hinge on how demand holds up, especially in key markets like China, and whether OPEC+ adheres to its plan. The modest decline suggests a market in wait-and-see mode, which feels prudent given the mixed signals elsewhere.

Bitcoin: Volatility meets technical headwinds

Bitcoin’s journey has been a rollercoaster, rallying to US$110,500 before hitting resistance at US$110,000. Trading above US$109,000, it’s showing stability, but technical analysis reveals bearish divergences across multiple timeframes—15-minute, one-hour, four-hour, and daily charts.

These divergences, where price rises but momentum indicators like the RSI weaken, suggest a fading bullish momentum and a possible pullback to US$106,000-US$107,500. Despite this, long-term trends remain bullish, buoyed by US$603 million in net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with Fidelity’s FBTC leading at US$237.13 million.

Bitcoin is cautiously mixed. The ETF inflows signal strong institutional interest, a bullish undercurrent. Yet, the technical warnings can’t be ignored. US$110,000 feels like a psychological ceiling that needs more conviction to break. Traders betting on US$112,000 might be right eventually, but the selling pressure suggests traps in the near term. I’d watch those support levels closely.

Wrapping up

The global financial markets are at a fascinating juncture. The US economy’s resilience, underscored by jobs data and fiscal policy, is driving risk sentiment forward, yet subtle cracks and technical signals urge caution.

Stocks and the dollar are riding high, but yields, gold, oil, and Bitcoin reflect a more complex reality. In my view, the interplay of these factors points to opportunity tempered by vigilance. Growth is here, but its sustainability depends on how these pieces evolve. For investors, staying informed and nimble will be key in navigating what’s next.

 

Source: https://e27.co/stocks-treasuries-gold-oil-and-bitcoin-in-motion-the-jobs-and-policy-effect-20250704/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Gold hits US$3,339 as markets brace for Fed moves and Bitcoin’s next big drop

Gold hits US$3,339 as markets brace for Fed moves and Bitcoin’s next big drop

I find myself drawn to the complexity of this moment, a trading session marked by mixed signals, yet brimming with implications for investors worldwide.

Let’s dive into the details, explore what’s driving these shifts, and offer my perspective on where things might be headed, all grounded in the facts and data at hand.

Global risks sentiment and economic backdrop

The global risks sentiment during this recent trading session was undeniably mixed, a reflection of the myriad forces tugging at investor confidence.

On one hand, there’s optimism stemming from stronger-than-expected US economic data: May’s US JOLTS job openings surged to 4.6 per cent, signalling robust labour market demand, while the ISM Manufacturing index ticked up to 49.0, hinting at a stabilisation in industrial activity despite remaining below the expansion threshold of 50.

These figures paint a picture of an economy that’s holding its own, defying some of the gloomier forecasts that have lingered in recent months. This resilience is a reminder that the US economy often finds ways to surprise on the upside, even amid uncertainty.

Yet, this positivity is tempered by caution. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s latest remarks reinforce a “wait-and-see” approach, a stance that keeps markets guessing about the Federal Reserve’s next move. His acknowledgment that a rate cut in July isn’t off the table adds a layer of intrigue, suggesting flexibility but no firm commitment.

I see this as the Fed walking a tightrope: balancing the need to support growth against the risk of overheating an economy that’s already showing strength. It’s a prudent strategy, but one that leaves investors hungry for clearer signals.

Adding to the mix is a significant legislative development: the US Senate’s razor-thin approval of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), passing 51-50 with Vice President Vance casting the decisive vote. This bill now heads to the House of Representatives for a final showdown, and its outcome could ripple through fiscal policy, government spending, and market sentiment.

While the specifics of OBBBA remain broad in public discourse, its passage in the Senate signals potential shifts in economic priorities, perhaps more stimulus or infrastructure investment, that could bolster growth or stoke inflationary pressures. The House’s decision will be a litmus test for how aggressively the US leans into fiscal expansion, and I’ll be watching closely.

US markets: A tale of divergence

Against this backdrop, US stock markets closed the session with a split personality. The S&P 500 dipped by 0.11 per cent, while the NASDAQ took a sharper hit, falling 0.82 per cent, which may reflect a cooling in tech-heavy growth stocks. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shone brightly, climbing 0.91 per cent to claim the title of best performer among the trio.

It suggests that investors are rotating into value stocks or sectors less sensitive to interest rate speculation, such as industrials or financials, while taking profits in high-flying tech names. It’s a classic flight to stability in uncertain times, and I suspect the Dow’s strength is tied to solid economic data lifting confidence in traditional industries.

US Treasury yields, however, tell a different story, one of rising expectations. The 10-year UST yield edged up by 1.4 basis points, while the two-year yield jumped 5.3 basis points to 3.772 per cent. Higher yields across the curve signal that bond investors are pricing in either stronger growth, creeping inflation, or the possibility of tighter Fed policy down the road.

I lean toward a mix of the first two: the economic data supports growth, but persistent supply chain pressures and energy costs (more on that later) could be nudging inflation concerns. For bondholders, it’s a demand for better returns in a world where cash might not stay cheap forever.

Currency, commodities, and global cues

The US Dollar Index slipped by a modest 0.06 per cent, a subtle retreat that doesn’t scream panic but hints at a pause in the greenback’s dominance. In contrast, gold rallied 1.1 per cent to US$3,339 per ounce, a clear sign of its enduring allure as a safe-haven asset when sentiment wavers.

I’ve always viewed gold as the market’s emotional barometer, and its climb here feels like a hedge against the unknowns: Fed policy, legislative outcomes, and geopolitical risks.

Speaking of which, Brent crude oil rose 0.6 per cent to US$67 per barrel, a modest gain overshadowed by the looming OPEC+ meeting on July 6. Word is, the cartel might agree to pump an additional 411,000 barrels per day starting in August—a move that could ease tight supply but also cap oil’s upside.

I’m cautious here; energy markets are a wild card, and any surprises from OPEC+ could sway inflation expectations and, by extension, Fed thinking. For now, the market seems to be holding its breath.

Globally, Asian equity indices reflected the mixed mood in early trading, while US equity futures indicated a higher open. That flicker of optimism could stem from the US data or hopes of Fed accommodation; either way, it’s a tentative sign that sentiment isn’t all doom and gloom.

Bitcoin: Institutional moves and technical tensions

Now, let’s pivot to the cryptocurrency realm, where Bitcoin is stealing headlines once again. Hong Kong-based DDC Enterprise, a publicly traded food company, has secured US$528 million in fresh funding and plans to acquire 5,000 BTC over the next three years. This isn’t pocket change, it’s a bold bet on Bitcoin as a treasury asset, signalling that institutional adoption is gaining steam.

It’s a vote of confidence in crypto’s staying power, even as traditional markets grapple with their own dramas. Companies like DDC are betting that Bitcoin can hedge against inflation or currency weakening, a narrative I think holds water in today’s climate.

But the price action tells a more cautious tale. Bitcoin pulled back to US$105,250 on Tuesday after failing to breach US$109,000 over the weekend, and selling picked up pace, raising the spectre of a drop to US$104,000. We might be at a local top or entering consolidation, given the choppy trading. Let’s break down the charts to see what’s cooking.

On the daily BTC/USDT chart, Bitcoin’s caught between a downtrend line and its moving averages. The upsloping averages tilt slightly bullish, suggesting that buyers aren’t out of the game, but the RSI, hovering near neutral, shows that momentum has stalled.

If the price cracks below those averages and holds there, we’re looking at a slide to US$104,500, maybe even US$100,000, keeping it trapped in a bearish descending triangle.

But if it bounces off the averages and punches above the downtrend line, that bearish setup collapses, and we could see a run toward the inverse head-and-shoulders neckline, potentially a bullish breakout. I’m torn here; the technicals are poised for either outcome, and it’s a coin toss until momentum picks a side.

The four-hour chart sharpens the focus: Bitcoin has slipped below the moving averages, a sign that short-term traders are cashing out. The US$104,500 level is the line in the sand; buyers will fight tooth and nail to hold it, because a break could send it tumbling to US$100,000. Psychologically, that round number looms large, and I’d wager it’s where dip-buyers might step in.

Bitcoin’s at a crossroads. The institutional interest from DDC is a long-term tailwind, but near-term selling pressure could test those lower supports. If it holds US$104,500, I’d see it as a base for another push; if it folds, US$100,000 feels like a natural floor before sentiment shifts.

We’re in a volatile stew, but with sharp eyes and steady hands, there’s profit to be made. That’s my lens on this whirlwind- Complex, thrilling, and ripe for the astute.

 

Source: https://e27.co/gold-hits-us3339-as-markets-brace-for-fed-moves-and-bitcoins-next-big-drop-20250702/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j