Tag Archives: hawkish

Why your portfolio is down: The Fed’s hawkish hold explained

Why your portfolio is down: The Fed’s hawkish hold explained

The Federal Reserve delivered a sobering message that sent shockwaves through equities, cryptocurrencies, and commodities alike. Chair Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates steady at 3.50 per cent to 3.75 per cent, but simultaneously raised their 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7 per cent from the previous 2.4 per cent projection. This hawkish hold shattered hopes for aggressive monetary easing and forced investors to recalibrate their expectations for the remainder of the year.

The immediate market reaction proved severe and widespread. United States equities bore the brunt of the selloff, with all eleven S&P 500 sectors closing in negative territory. The S&P 500 index fell 1.36 per cent to settle at 6,624.70 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.63 per cent to 46,225.15. The technology-heavy Nasdaq declined 1.46 per cent to 22,152.42 as growth stocks faced renewed pressure from the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates. Consumer Staples led the decline with a 2.44 per cent drop, followed closely by Consumer Discretionary, down 2.32 per cent, as investors worried that persistent inflation would erode household purchasing power and dampen retail sentiment.

European markets offered no refuge from the turmoil. The FTSE 100 slipped 0.94 per cent to 10,305.29 while Germany’s DAX 40 fell 0.96 per cent to 23,502.25. The synchronised global selloff reflected a fundamental reassessment of risk as traders priced out expectations for multiple rate cuts in 2026. The Fed’s updated dot plot now signals only one rate cut for the remainder of the year, a dramatic shift from previous expectations that had fuelled earlier market rallies.

Adding fuel to the fire, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated dramatically with reports of military strikes targeting Iranian natural gas facilities in South Pars. Brent Crude surged toward the US$110 to US$120 per barrel range as supply concerns mounted. This energy shock created a particularly pernicious dynamic where rising oil prices threatened to further entrench inflation, potentially forcing central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policy for an extended period. The correlation between traditional markets and alternative assets became strikingly evident as cryptocurrencies moved in lockstep with equities and gold, showing an 89 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 and a remarkable 96 per cent correlation with gold.

The cryptocurrency market experienced its own cascade of selling pressure, declining 3.63 per cent to US$2.44 trillion in market capitalisation over twenty-four hours. This macro-driven selloff triggered a brutal liquidation event that wiped out over US$151 million in Bitcoin long positions within a single day. The forced closures represented a 127 per cent increase in liquidations and served as an accelerant, intensifying the downward spiral. Bitcoin traded near the critical pivot zone at US$70,283, while the broader crypto market showed vulnerability within its yearly downtrend. The Fear and Greed Index held at 33, firmly in Fear territory, reflecting the anxiety permeating digital asset markets.

Treasury markets reflected uncertainty, with the 10-year yield settling around 4.22 per cent after earlier gains were pared following the Fed announcement. The US Dollar strengthened as traders adjusted their expectations for monetary policy easing. Gold held relatively steady near the US$5,000 mark as safe-haven demand balanced against rising real yields, which typically pressure the non-yielding metal. This tug-of-war between geopolitical risk and monetary policy tightness created a complex environment in which traditional hedges struggled to find a clear direction.

The market faces critical technical levels that will likely determine the near-term trajectory. The cryptocurrency market must hold above the key Fibonacci 50 per cent retracement level at US$2.38 trillion to avoid deeper losses. A break below this support could extend the decline toward US$2.29 trillion, potentially triggering another wave of liquidations. The path forward hinges on several key factors, including upcoming US economic data releases, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation reading, and the progress of the Clarity Act through the Senate Banking Committee, with markup expected in April.

The current corrective phase appears to be a necessary purge of excessive leverage and overoptimistic positioning rather than a fundamental breakdown of the broader uptrend. Investors must remain vigilant as the combination of sticky inflation, elevated energy prices, and restrictive monetary policy creates a challenging environment for risk assets. Those who maintain positions must prepare for continued volatility as markets digest the reality that the Federal Reserve prioritises price stability over growth support, even at the cost of short-term market pain. The coming weeks will test whether this selloff represents a buying opportunity or the beginning of a more sustained downturn.

Market participants should watch for stabilisation in funding rates and a decline in liquidation volume as signals that selling pressure may be exhausting. A weekly close below US$2.38 trillion would confirm deeper correction risk, while a reclaim of US$2.48 trillion could restore bullish momentum. The interplay between macro data and regulatory developments will likely dictate the next major move. For now, the message from policymakers remains clear. Inflation control takes precedence, and markets must adapt to a reality where liquidity conditions tighten further before any meaningful relief arrives. 

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Crypto’s perfect storm: Broken support, hawkish Fed, and Nasdaq lockstep

Crypto’s perfect storm: Broken support, hawkish Fed, and Nasdaq lockstep

The confluence of macro uncertainty, technical breakdowns, and sector-specific stressors has created a volatile environment that tests the resilience of risk assets across the board. This turbulence lies behind Bitcoin’s breach of the US$100,000 level, a psychological and structural support that, once broken, triggered a cascade of leveraged liquidations totaling US$1.3 billion.

This event did not occur in isolation. Instead, it amplified and was amplified by broader financial dynamics, especially the tightening correlation between crypto and equities, particularly the Nasdaq-100, which reached an unusually high 0.95 over the past 24 hours. These developments, layered atop structural pressures in Bitcoin mining and shifting monetary policy expectations, signal more than just a routine correction. They reflect deeper questions about crypto’s role in a risk-on/risk-off world and the sustainability of its recent rally.

The breakdown below US$100,000 marks a pivotal moment for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. This level had served not only as a price anchor but also as a signal of institutional confidence and market maturity. Its breach suggests that sentiment has soured rapidly, possibly due to a combination of overextended positioning and macro headwinds.

The data underscores this fragility. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives rose 4.21 per cent immediately before the drop, indicating a dense concentration of long positions that were suddenly exposed when the market turned. In leveraged markets, such crowded trades can magnify price moves exponentially, as margin calls force further selling into a thin market. The resulting feedback loop accelerated the decline and pushed many positions underwater. Now, all eyes are on the 200-day exponential moving average around US$95,000. Should Bitcoin stabilise above this level, it could signal that the worst of the liquidation cascade has passed. But a failure to hold would likely invite another wave of forced deleveraging, especially if broader risk sentiment continues to deteriorate.

Compounding this technical vulnerability is the reassertion of crypto’s tie to equity markets, particularly to the Nasdaq. The 0.95 correlation with the Nasdaq-100 over 24 hours, its highest since June 2025, confirms that institutional participants continue to treat crypto as a risk-on proxy rather than a distinct asset class. This linkage became especially pronounced as technology shares sold off sharply, with the Nasdaq dropping 2.29 per cent amid concerns over AI-related earnings and the fading likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut by January 2026 has collapsed to just 20 per cent, down from 49 per cent a week earlier. This shift reflects increasingly hawkish commentary from Fed officials, who appear reluctant to ease policy despite the recent government shutdown and market volatility. For crypto markets, this means less near-term tailwind from monetary policy and more sensitivity to equity market swings. As long as institutional capital flows remain dictated by macro liquidity expectations, crypto will struggle to decouple from the broader risk narrative.

Adding another layer of pressure is the growing distress in the Bitcoin mining sector. Bitfarms’ announcement that it plans to exit mining by 2027 after reporting a US$46 million quarterly loss highlights the mounting economic challenges facing miners. The company cited unsustainable energy costs and declining profitability, conditions exacerbated by a 41 per cent drop in industry-wide mining revenue since October. Historically, miners have been consistent sellers of Bitcoin, liquidating approximately 1,000 BTC per day to cover operational expenses. As margins compress, this selling pressure could intensify, especially if more miners follow Bitfarms’ strategic pivot toward AI infrastructure. While such transitions may make business sense in the long run, they erode near-term confidence in Bitcoin’s network fundamentals. A sustained decline in network hashrate would be a red flag, signaling that more miners are capitulating under financial stress. This dynamic not only increases selling pressure but also raises concerns about network security and decentralization if smaller operators are forced offline.

The macro backdrop adds further complexity. Although the US government has resumed operations after a 43-day shutdown, the resolution offers little clarity on fiscal sustainability or the path of monetary policy. Markets initially welcomed the end of the impasse, but this relief was short-lived as investors refocused on the Fed’s tightening stance. The modest rise in Treasury yields, 10-year yields climbing to 4.11 per cent and two-year yields to 3.59 per cent, reflects both the removal of shutdown-related uncertainty and a reassessment of rate cut probabilities. Meanwhile, gold declined 1.1 per cent to US$4,151.86 per ounce, suggesting that safe-haven demand weakened as the immediate fiscal crisis abated. The dollar also dipped slightly, closing at 99.16, but this move appears more technical than fundamental. Crucially, Friday’s upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) data will serve as a litmus test for inflation expectations. Should the data come in hotter than anticipated, it could further delay rate cut hopes and extend the selloff across risk assets, including crypto.

Within this environment, sentiment has plunged into Extreme Fear, as reflected by a Fear & Greed Index reading of 22. Historically, such extremes have often marked contrarian buying opportunities, especially in crypto markets where panic selling tends to overshoot fundamentals. However, the current context may be different. Unlike previous fear-driven corrections, today’s selloff emerges against a backdrop of structural shifts, a re-tethering to equity markets, miner distress, and a less accommodative macro regime. These factors suggest that the usual buy the dip narrative may not apply, at least not immediately. For long-term believers in Bitcoin’s value proposition, the current pullback could represent a strategic entry point, but only if one assumes that the macro environment will eventually ease and that mining sector stress is transitory. Short-term traders, on the other hand, must contend with the very real possibility of further downside if equities continue to lead the move or if miner selling accelerates.

In conclusion, this market wrap captures more than a routine correction. It reflects a convergence of technical, macro, and sector-specific pressures that challenge crypto’s independence as an asset class. Bitcoin’s fall below US$100,000, its tight correlation with the Nasdaq, and the exodus from mining all point to a moment of reckoning. The path forward hinges on whether crypto can reassert its unique narrative, decouple from equities, absorb miner sell pressure, and regain institutional confidence in a higher-for-longer rate environment.

Until then, volatility will remain elevated, and the market will stay at the mercy of macro crosscurrents and technical thresholds. Traders and investors alike must navigate this terrain with caution, recognising that the current fear may be justified, but also that in crypto, fear often plants the seeds of the next bull run.

 

Source: https://e27.co/cryptos-perfect-storm-broken-support-hawkish-fed-and-nasdaq-lockstep-20251114/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Profit-taking and peril: Equities consolidate, bonds turn hawkish, and Bitcoin tests its limits

Profit-taking and peril: Equities consolidate, bonds turn hawkish, and Bitcoin tests its limits

The past week has seen a noticeable retreat in global risk appetite, with traders and institutional investors adopting a more cautious stance ahead of the third-quarter earnings season. This consolidation phase reflects a natural pause following a strong rally in equities, with market participants reassessing valuations and positioning themselves for potential volatility once corporate earnings reports begin to roll in.

US equities closed lower on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 0.5 per cent, the S&P 500 down 0.3 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite slipping 0.1 per cent. These modest declines underscore a broader theme of profit-taking rather than panic selling, suggesting that the market remains fundamentally sound but increasingly selective.

Adding to the uncertainty, key US economic data releases have been disrupted by the ongoing government shutdown. Weekly jobless claims and wholesale trade figures, initially scheduled for Thursday, remain delayed, depriving analysts of timely insights into labour market resilience and inventory trends. Market attention now shifts to Friday’s release of the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for October.

Given that consumer confidence often serves as a leading indicator of spending behaviour and economic momentum, this report could significantly influence near-term market direction, especially if it reveals a sharp deterioration in household outlooks amid persistent inflation concerns or rising borrowing costs.

Meanwhile, the bond market continues to reflect a nuanced outlook on monetary policy. US Treasury yields edged higher, with the benchmark 10-year yield climbing 2.1 basis points to 4.138 per cent and the two-year yield rising 1.2 basis points to 3.593 per cent. The modest uptick in yields suggests that investors are recalibrating expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts, possibly in response to resilient economic data or hawkish commentary from central bank officials. This dynamic places additional pressure on equities, particularly growth-oriented sectors that are sensitive to higher discount rates.

Currency and commodity markets also mirrored the prevailing risk-off mood. The US Dollar Index strengthened by 0.6 per cent to reach 99.54, benefiting from its traditional safe-haven status during periods of market caution. Conversely, gold retreated 1.6 per cent to US$3976 per ounce after briefly touching a record high.

The pullback in the precious metal appears driven by profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift in its appeal as a hedge against uncertainty. Similarly, Brent crude oil settled 1.6 per cent lower at US$65.22 per barrel, pressured by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the broader retreat from risk assets.

In Asia, equity markets displayed a mixed performance. The Chinese CSI 300 index surged 1.48 per cent on Thursday, its first trading day following the week-long National Day holiday. The rally was led by sectors tied to artificial intelligence and gold, reflecting both domestic policy optimism and global commodity trends.

However, early trading sessions on Friday showed more subdued activity, indicating that the initial post-holiday euphoria may be giving way to more cautious positioning. Notably, US equity index futures point to a higher open on Wall Street, suggesting that the recent dip may have created attractive entry points for bargain hunters.

Amid this backdrop, Bitcoin has emerged as a focal point of intense speculation and technical scrutiny. The cryptocurrency is currently trading above US$121,000, yet it faces mounting bearish pressure that could trigger a test of critical support levels. On Thursday, Bitcoin briefly dipped below the psychologically important US$120,000 mark, reaching an intraday low of US$119,810 before recovering slightly. This move, which represented a nearly three per cent decline in a single session, highlights the asset’s vulnerability despite its lofty valuation. Technical indicators reinforce this cautionary tone.

The hourly chart reveals a developing bearish trend line, with resistance forming around US$122,750. Bitcoin now trades below both the US$121,500 level and its 100-hour Simple Moving Average, signalling weakening short-term momentum. Immediate resistance sits at US$121,750, while the hourly MACD shows increasing strength in negative territory and the RSI has fallen below the pivotal 50 level, both classic signs of bearish dominance.

The derivatives market further underscores this fragile sentiment. Total derivatives volume plummeted by 15.24 per cent to US$478.15 trillion, while open interest in perpetual contracts declined by 1.29 per cent. This contraction coincided with Bitcoin’s drop below US$124,000 and triggered approximately US$700 million in liquidations.

The high leverage embedded in the system, evidenced by open interest standing at US$1.12 trillion, amplified the downside as leveraged positions were forcibly unwound. Traders appear to be reducing exposure in response to stretched technical conditions, with the 14-day RSI hovering near 69.88, just shy of overbought territory. Moreover, the spot-to-perpetuals trading ratio of 0.22 indicates that derivatives activity continues to dominate the market, rendering it especially susceptible to sharp swings and cascading liquidations.

Compounding Bitcoin’s challenges, the altcoin ecosystem is experiencing its own wave of selling pressure. New token launches such as ASTER and MIRA have faced immediate post-listing declines, driven by large-scale airdrops and token unlocks. ASTER’s Phase 2 airdrop released four per cent of its total supply, prompting whales to offload 28.3 million tokens and driving the price down by 10 per cent.

Similarly, MIRA’s circulating supply surged by 191 million tokens following its Binance listing, overwhelming market demand. These events highlight a recurring pattern in the crypto space: token unlocks often lead to immediate sell-offs, particularly when projects lack robust utility or sustainable demand drivers. The Altcoin Season Index has consequently fallen by 11.76 per cent, signalling a clear rotation of capital back into Bitcoin as investors seek relative safety within the digital asset class.

Regulatory uncertainty adds another layer of complexity. In the United States, Senate negotiations on comprehensive crypto market-structure legislation have stalled, with Democratic proposals on decentralised finance (DeFi) oversight meeting resistance from Republican lawmakers. This legislative gridlock prolongs the regulatory limbo that has long plagued the industry, creating headwinds for institutional adoption and altcoin valuations.

However, there remains a counterbalancing bullish narrative. Former President Donald Trump’s recent overtures toward establishing a US strategic Bitcoin reserve have reignited speculation about potential pro-crypto policies should he return to office. While purely aspirational at this stage, such rhetoric provides a psychological floor for long-term Bitcoin bulls who view regulatory clarity, even if delayed, as inevitable.

In sum, the current market environment reflects a delicate equilibrium between optimism and caution. Equities are consolidating after a strong run, bonds are pricing in a more hawkish Fed, and commodities are reacting to shifting risk sentiment. Bitcoin, despite its record-breaking price, shows clear signs of technical fatigue and structural vulnerability.

Yet, beneath the short-term turbulence lies a persistent belief in its long-term potential, particularly if it can overcome key resistance levels and navigate the evolving regulatory landscape. For now, investors remain in a holding pattern, awaiting the next catalyst, whether from corporate earnings, economic data, or policy developments, to determine the next major market move.

 

Source: https://e27.co/profit-taking-and-peril-equities-consolidate-bonds-turn-hawkish-and-bitcoin-tests-its-limits-20251010/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j