December 24th, 2025

Gold hits US$4,500 while Bitcoin bleeds: The year-end market disconnect explained

There is a stark contrast between traditional markets and digital assets as we approach the year’s end. Asian stocks advanced at the open following the S&P 500 Index’s climb to a record high, supported by robust US economic data indicating the fastest growth pace in two years. MSCI’s regional equities gauge extended gains into a fourth consecutive day, rising 0.3 per cent, with Japanese and South Korean benchmarks leading the advance. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market tells a different story, falling 1.05 per cent over the past 24 hours and extending a seven-day decline of 0.71 per cent. This divergence highlights the complex relationship between traditional and digital asset classes during periods of economic strength and geopolitical tension.

The commodities market has captured significant attention with gold rallying to an unprecedented high of more than US$4,500 per ounce. This milestone represents gold’s strongest performance in recent memory, with its haven appeal amplified by Washington’s blockade of oil tankers linked to Venezuela. Silver also reached an all-time high, while copper prices exceeded US$12,000 per ton for the first time in history. Despite this remarkable performance in precious metals, crypto markets remained unaffected by gold’s surge, continuing their downward trajectory, even though they have historically shown some correlation during risk-off periods.

Geopolitical tensions have extended the oil price rally into a sixth consecutive session, with West Texas Intermediate crude trading above US$58.50 per barrel. These market dynamics indicate that investors are seeking traditional safe havens amid uncertainty. Yet cryptocurrency markets, often described as potential inflation hedges and stores of value, have failed to capitalise on the macroeconomic conditions that typically drive alternative investments.

The crypto market’s current weakness stems from three interconnected factors: institutional pullback, derivatives market deleveraging, and persistent risk-off sentiment. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced net outflows of US$142.2 million, marking a significant reversal from November’s US$198 million inflows. This institutional caution reflects profit-taking behaviour and growing macroeconomic uncertainty as we approach year-end. ETF flow data serve as a critical leading indicator of institutional demand, and sustained outflows could delay a meaningful market rebound until fresh capital enters the ecosystem.

Derivatives markets reflect additional pressure, as total open interest fell 4.4 per cent to US$35 billion over 24 hours. Bitcoin perpetuals funding rates spiked 102.7 per cent as leveraged traders faced substantial liquidation pressure. Long position holders paid approximately US$81.6 million in forced liquidations, highlighting the vulnerability of overleveraged positions during market downturns. This deleveraging appears partly connected to holiday trading patterns, with many participants reducing exposure ahead of the Christmas period when liquidity typically dries up. However, the elevated funding rates paradoxically suggest a lingering bullish bias among remaining traders, creating a complex market structure that is vulnerable to cascading liquidations should Bitcoin break critical support levels around US$84,000.

Market sentiment metrics reinforce this cautious outlook. The CoinMarketCap Fear & Greed Index remained at 27 out of 100, classified in the Fear category for more than 18 consecutive days. This represents the lowest sentiment reading since November and indicates severely eroded retail confidence. Social media analysis reveals growing concerns about exchange manipulation, with Binance-linked selloffs trending across major platforms. The Altcoin Season Index at 19 indicates that capital remains defensively positioned, primarily in Bitcoin rather than rotating into alternative cryptocurrencies. This defensive posture contradicts the broader market narrative of strengthening risk appetite, which has driven technology stocks higher despite strong US economic data, scaling back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing measures.

The cryptocurrency market’s current disconnect from traditional assets warrants deeper examination. While technology stocks remain in high demand despite earlier concerns about valuation and saturation in artificial intelligence investment, digital assets face significant headwinds. Traders have regained confidence that established technology companies will deliver solid earnings growth in 2026, yet similar optimism has not extended to cryptocurrency projects despite their technological innovations and growing institutional infrastructure.

Several developments could potentially shift this narrative. JPMorgan’s reported consideration of crypto trading services for institutional clients represents a significant potential catalyst, though no confirmed moves or official statements have materialised yet. This development, mentioned in market reports today, aligns with the broader trend of traditional financial institutions gradually embracing digital assets despite current market weakness. Additionally, Ethereum’s ecosystem shows signs of evolution following the Shanghai upgrade, which fundamentally altered the network’s economic dynamics by enabling withdrawals of staked ETH and altering validator behaviour. These infrastructure improvements may position Ethereum for stronger performance once market sentiment recovers.

Technical indicators suggest the cryptocurrency market has entered oversold territory, with Bitcoin’s 14-day Relative Strength Index reading at 32. Historically, such readings have often preceded meaningful rebounds, though timing such recoveries remains challenging. Market structure analysis reveals a critical liquidation cluster between US$84,000 and US$93,000, suggesting this range will determine Bitcoin’s next significant directional move. A decisive break below US$84,000 could trigger additional leveraged selling, while a sustained recovery above US$93,000 might restore bullish momentum.

The path to recovery for digital assets likely requires either renewed ETF inflows or a significant macroeconomic catalyst. Upcoming economic data releases, particularly Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report, could prove pivotal. Higher-than-expected inflation figures might delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially extending crypto’s risk-off tone as higher rates traditionally pressure growth assets. Conversely, cooling inflation data could reignite risk appetite across all asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.

This market environment creates opportunities for strategic positioning despite current weakness. The extended period of fear in the Fear & Greed Index has historically preceded market recoveries, though investors should await confirmatory signals before deploying capital aggressively. New cryptocurrency projects continue to generate interest alongside established coins, with tokens like APEMARS creating significant attention despite the broader market decline. This persistent innovation suggests underlying strength in blockchain development continues regardless of short-term price action.

As we approach year-end, investors face a complex landscape in which traditional and digital assets present divergent narratives. Strong economic data support equity markets while simultaneously pressuring expectations for monetary easing that could benefit alternative investments. Geopolitical tensions boost gold to record highs without translating to similar safe-haven demand for cryptocurrencies. Institutional capital shows caution through ETF outflows while simultaneously exploring expanded crypto services for clients.

The cryptocurrency market’s current consolidation phase may ultimately prove constructive, allowing overheated sentiment to normalise and creating a foundation for more sustainable growth. Technical oversold conditions, combined with historically low sentiment readings, suggest that a potential reversal may be approaching, though timing remains uncertain. Patient investors might view this period as an opportunity to build strategic positions while the broader market remains focused on traditional assets reaching record highs. The coming weeks will likely determine whether this divergence continues or if cryptocurrency markets reestablish correlation with the broader risk-on environment that has lifted global equities to new heights.

Source: https://e27.co/gold-hits-us4500-while-bitcoin-bleeds-the-year-end-market-disconnect-explained-20251224/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

November 19th, 2025

Quantum shockwave hits finance as Aussie companies join the race

If there’s one threat forming on the horizon of global finance, it’s not necessarily another banking crisis, it’s quantum computing.

Quantum computers aren’t just faster. They’re built on entirely different physics (superposition and entanglement), allowing them to process calculations that would take today’s supercomputers thousands of years … in mere minutes.

That power is a dream for scientists but for banks and payment networks, it’s a ticking time bomb.

That’s because the same quantum power that can simulate entire molecules in seconds can just as easily rip through the encryption walls protecting global finance.

All those locks guarding online payments, digital wallets (and now blockchain transactions) rely on public-key cryptography. Once quantum processors mature, and most experts say they will within a decade, those locks could snap open like cheap padlocks.

“Our financial systems face an existential threat from quantum computing’s ability to break widely used public-key cryptographic protocols,” said Singapore-based blockchain adviser Anndy Lian, warning that trillions in digital transactions are exposed.

Banks know it. Regulators are catching on.

And while some countries are already investing heavily in “quantum-safe” systems, much of the world still isn’t ready.

That gap has created an urgent opportunity for companies that can bridge today’s digital infrastructure with tomorrow’s quantum reality.

Aussie companies gearing up for quantum shift

Australia already has a few names making early moves.

Archer Materials (ASX:AXE) is one of the few public companies in the world developing a quantum chip that can operate at room temperature, which could be a game-changer for the industry.

Its flagship project, the 12CQ chip, aims to use carbon-based qubits, a very different approach from the ultra-cold superconducting systems favoured by giants like IBM and Google.

What makes Archer interesting is that it has already demonstrated the ability to detect and now fabricate individual qubits using standard semiconductor processes. If successful, it could mean quantum computing that fits on a normal circuit board.

Meanwhile, Sydney-based Diraq, though unlisted, has partnered with UNSW to advance silicon-based qubits, essentially trying to make quantum chips that speak the same language as today’s computers.

Another early mover is Codeifai (ASX:CDE), which has recently broadened its focus from product authentication into the much broader world of quantum-secure data.

Codeifai expands into quantum

Codeifai’s story started in product authentication, stopping counterfeit goods with scannable QR codes. But the company’s ambition has evolved fast.

In 2024, it launched ConnectQR, turning those codes into digital trust portals that verify products and track supply chains.

In 2025, Codeifai took a major leap forward by integrating GS1 Digital Link functionality into its ConnectQR platform, a technology that transforms ordinary barcodes into web-enabled smart data carriers.

It connects physical products directly to online information with a single scan, giving consumers instant access to verified product details and authenticity.

This move also saw Codeifai accepted as an Associate Alliance Partner of GS1 Australia, placing it at the forefront of the global transition from 1D to 2D barcodes and expanding opportunities for its high-margin SaaS ConnectQR business.

Now, the company is preparing for its biggest move yet… into quantum-secure payments and communications.

Earlier this month, Codeifai appointed seasoned payments executive Marcus Cann as chief strategy officer to lead the charge.

Cann’s background at Volt Bank and MOGOPLUS gives him deep roots in fintech and open-banking infrastructure, exactly the kind of experience needed to bridge finance and frontier tech.

“He [Cann] will work closely with our COO and myself as we navigate the company into an exciting new arena,” said Codeifai’s executive chairman, John Houston.

The appointment coincides with Codeifai’s potential acquisition of AntennaTransfer.io, an AI-backed, quantum-secure communications platform owned by Canada’s Credissential Inc.

Once the deal is approved at the company’s EGM on 8 December, it will be rebranded QuantumAI Secure.

Secure payments for the post-quantum era

Every time someone scans a QR code, approves a BNPL transaction, or signs a digital agreement, they’re relying on one unspoken assumption: that the system can’t be forged.

Quantum computing is about to test that assumption.

Codeifai’s QuantumAI Secure is designed to make sure that trust still holds. It features a payments gateway fortified with post-quantum cryptography, built so that even if someone intercepts transaction data today, it will remain unreadable decades from now.

The platform also enables file transfers that keep sensitive contracts and intellectual property sealed tight for years to come.

AntennaTransfer.io brings the communications backbone to transmit encrypted information across distributed networks, and that technology is now about to be folded into Codeifai’s ecosystem.

The expansion into encryption technology puts the company squarely in the path of one of the biggest transformations in tech history.

Source: https://stockhead.com.au/tech/quantum-shockwave-hits-finance-as-aussie-companies-join-the-race/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

November 18th, 2025

Crypto crashes 13 per cent as Fed rate cut hopes fade, S&P 500 correlation hits 0.95

Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market shed 3.51 per cent, extending a punishing 13 per cent weekly decline driven by a confluence of macroeconomic headwinds, cascading derivatives liquidations, and a dramatic collapse in trader sentiment. This sell-off exemplifies how tightly interwoven crypto has become with traditional financial systems, particularly as correlations with equities have deepened to levels not seen in months.

Monday’s performance in US equities underscored this linkage, with the Dow Jones falling 1.18 per cent, the S&P 500 down 0.92 per cent, and the Nasdaq slipping 0.84 per cent, as technology stocks led the retreat. These losses emerged alongside diminishing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which had previously provided some support to risk assets. The recalibration of Fed expectations followed strong US economic data, which reinforced concerns about persistent inflation and delayed the anticipated pivot toward monetary easing.

The shifting macroeconomic landscape was further reflected in movements across fixed-income and foreign exchange markets. The 10-year US Treasury yield declined modestly by 1.0 basis point to settle at 4.139 per cent, while the two-year yield edged higher by 0.4 basis points to 3.610 per cent, signalling a slight flattening of the yield curve. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index gained 0.29 per cent to close at 99.588, adding pressure on non-dollar assets.

Gold, often viewed as a safe haven, dropped 1.0 per cent to US$4044.96 per ounce, weighed down by both the stronger dollar and receding hopes for near-term rate cuts, which typically support precious metals by lowering opportunity costs. In energy markets, Brent crude settled slightly lower at US$64.20 per barrel, recovering marginally as loadings resumed at Russia’s Novorossiysk export terminal following a brief suspension caused by a Ukrainian drone strike. Across Asia, equities finished the session mixed but turned lower in early Tuesday trading, though US index futures pointed to a modest recovery at the open, suggesting some short-term stabilisation may be on the horizon.

The crypto downturn lies a powerful macro risk-off dynamic that has pulled digital assets into the same downdraft affecting equities. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price correlation with the S&P 500 surged to 0.95, its highest since June 2025. This near-perfect synchronisation underscores how traders increasingly treat crypto not as an uncorrelated alternative asset but as a high-beta extension of the broader risk spectrum. The catalyst for this shift came from revised market pricing around Federal Reserve policy. Stronger-than-expected economic indicators have tempered expectations for a December rate cut, pushing the implied probability lower and driving the 10-year Treasury yield up by 14 basis points over recent sessions.

This tightening of financial conditions has hit speculative assets especially hard. Bitcoin’s breach below the psychologically critical US$91,500 level triggered a wave of algorithmic stop-loss orders, accelerating the decline and dragging down major altcoins such as Solana and Cardano, which posted weekly losses of 21.7 per cent and 22.4 per cent, respectively. The market now awaits pivotal upcoming events, the release of the November 20 Fed meeting minutes, and Nvidia’s earnings report on November 21, for further directional cues. Any sign of continued economic resilience or hawkish Fed rhetoric could prolong risk aversion.

Compounding the macro pressure, a violent unwind in crypto derivatives markets has magnified losses through forced liquidations. Trading volume in perpetual futures contracts spiked by 45.6 per cent to an astonishing US$423 trillion over 24 hours, reflecting frantic hedging and position adjustments. Simultaneously, total open interest in the derivatives market fell by 7.4 per cent, now standing at US$787 billion, down 8.4 per cent in a single day. This contraction signals a rapid deleveraging as overextended positions were forcibly closed. Options markets mirrored this bearish sentiment, with US$740 million in put options placed targeting a Bitcoin price of US$90,000 and Ethereum at US$2,800.

Funding rates for major altcoins also turned negative, with the average rate dipping to minus 0.0019775, which disincentivises holding long positions and encourages further shorting. This feedback loop of rising volatility, liquidations, and negative funding creates a self-reinforcing cycle that can deepen sell-offs beyond what fundamentals alone would justify. Market participants now watch open interest closely, as a continued decline could signal capitulation, potentially setting the stage for a relief rally once leverage is sufficiently purged.

Perhaps most telling is the collapse in market psychology, captured starkly by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which plunged to 15, entering “Extreme Fear” territory. This marks the lowest reading since March 2025, a period that ultimately coincided with a market bottom when Bitcoin found support near US$76,000. Retail investors, overwhelmed by the speed and severity of the decline, have fled to the perceived safety of stablecoins, pushing Tether’s dominance to 7.2 per cent, a 30-day high. Social sentiment has turned sharply negative, with average daily scores falling to 4.29 out of 10, and viral commentary reflecting deep pessimism toward even leading altcoins.

Phrases like “Solana’s fuel is running out” have gained traction, illustrating how quickly narrative momentum can reverse in stressed markets. Historically, sustained readings below 20 on the Fear & Greed Index have often preceded short-term bounces, as excessive fear creates oversold conditions ripe for contrarian positioning. However, such rebounds typically require a catalyst, and in the current environment, that catalyst remains uncertain.

Technically, Bitcoin’s daily RSI has plummeted to 9.05, a level that suggests extreme oversold conditions rarely seen outside major market dislocations. This raises the possibility of a reflexive bounce, particularly if macro conditions stabilise or if institutional buyers step in near key support levels. El Salvador recently deployed over US$100 million in purchases at the US$90,000 level, suggesting strong hands view this zone as a strategic entry point. Whether Bitcoin can hold this critical threshold in the face of ongoing liquidations and macro uncertainty will likely determine near-term market direction.

In summary, the current crypto sell-off is not an isolated event, but rather part of a broader reassessment of risk across global markets. It reflects the convergence of three powerful forces: a macro regime shift driven by sticky inflation and delayed monetary easing, a violent derivatives-driven deleveraging, and a collapse in market sentiment that has pushed fear to multi-month extremes.

While technical indicators hint at potential exhaustion, any sustainable recovery will depend on a stabilisation in equity markets, a reduction in liquidation pressure, and a recalibration of Fed expectations. Until then, the path of least resistance for crypto remains downward, with US$90,000 standing as the last line of defence before deeper levels come into play.

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-crashes-13-per-cent-as-fed-rate-cut-hopes-fade-sp-500-correlation-hits-0-95-20251118/