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Bitcoin’s US$77,000 test: What the next 48 hours mean for your portfolio

Bitcoin’s US$77,000 test: What the next 48 hours mean for your portfolio

Major US indices closed mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite eking out fresh record highs. The S&P 500 rose 0.12 per cent to 7,173.91 while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.20 per cent to 24,887.10. This selective strength tells a story of conviction in growth names rather than broad-based euphoria. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.13 per cent to 49,167.79, and the Russell 2000 edged up a modest 0.04 per cent to 2,788.19.

Investors are navigating a narrow path, balancing strong corporate earnings potential against geopolitical friction and monetary policy uncertainty. The market’s cautious tone reflects awareness that this week carries outsized importance, with megacap tech results and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision poised to set the near-term direction.

Nvidia’s 4.01 per cent gain to US$216.61, marking its second straight all-time high, underscores the enduring appeal of AI infrastructure leaders. The broader semiconductor sector showed signs of fatigue as the iShares Semiconductor ETF snapped an 18-day winning streak, posting a 1.3 per cent decline. This rotation hints at profit-taking after a powerful run, not a loss of faith in the sector’s long-term trajectory.

Eyes now turn to the earnings calendar, with Coca-Cola reporting before Tuesday’s open and a gauntlet of tech giants, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta on Wednesday, followed by Apple on Thursday, set to provide critical read-throughs on consumer resilience and enterprise spending.

Global markets mirrored this cautious stance. Asia-Pacific shares held near an eight-week high, though the ASX 200 faced pressure with futures down 0.69 per cent. Energy markets remained tightly wound, with Brent crude rising for a sixth straight day to US$108.23 a barrel and US WTI edging up to US$96.66. This persistent strength in oil directly feeds inflation anxieties just as the Federal Reserve prepares to meet.

In bonds, the 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.318 per cent signals that fixed income investors are pricing in a complex mix of growth and inflation data. Cryptocurrency markets felt the pressure, with Bitcoin falling 1.88 per cent to approximately US$76,858, a move that deserves deeper scrutiny beyond the headline.

The cryptocurrency market’s recent volatility stems from a confluence of technical and fundamental forces. A sudden US$1.2 billion sell surge on Binance triggered a flash crash below US$78,000 on April 27. This event forced US$114.78 million in BTC liquidations over 24 hours, with longs accounting for US$108.19 million of that total.

Perpetual funding rates plunged to -0.004 per cent, one of the most negative readings on record. These data points to a market that had become overcrowded with bullish leverage, and the subsequent flush, while painful, represents a healthy reset of positioning. The drop was less about a new negative catalyst and more about clearing excess speculation, creating a cleaner foundation for the next move.

This technical reset coincided with renewed macro and geopolitical pressure. Surging oil prices above US$100 per barrel, fuelled by stalled ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran, reignited inflation fears ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. In this environment, Bitcoin, showing a 71 per cent 24-hour correlation with gold, traded decisively as a macro asset.

Its short-term direction remains tethered to traditional market concerns over rates and liquidity. This correlation is not a permanent state but rather a reflection of current risk sentiment, with all assets weighed against the backdrop of potential monetary policy shifts and geopolitical instability.

The immediate technical test for Bitcoin is the US$77,000 support level, which coincides with the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement. If buyers defend this zone, a short squeeze could propel BTC back toward the US$80,000-US$81,000 resistance. The key near-term trigger remains the Fed’s policy statement and Chair Powell’s press conference, which concludes on April 29.

A dovish tilt could catalyse a rally across risk assets, while a hawkish hold may extend the pullback toward the next key support at US$76,062. The structure appears bearish in the very short term, but a reclaim of US$78,000 could quickly shift sentiment. Watching the price reaction at US$77,000 alongside the Fed’s updated economic projections will provide critical clues.

Market pressure intensified on Tuesday, 28 April 2026, following a sophisticated hack targeting infrastructure linked to Kelp DAO. The theft of approximately 116,500 rsETH tokens, valued at around US$300 million, triggered a massive run on the leading lender Aave, resulting in a US$9 billion liquidity drain. This event rattled investor confidence and amplified the prevailing risk-off sentiment.

Bitcoin traded around US$76,852, down 1.79 per cent for the day, having dropped on 4 of the past 5 days but still up 19 per cent since the start of the conflict in late February. Ethereum consolidated near US$2,321, facing resistance at US$2,360 as retail traders exited while larger holders accumulated. The Fear and Greed Index at 33, reflecting Fear, captures the significant caution now pervading the market.

Broader regulatory and institutional developments continue to shape the landscape. The CLARITY Act is advancing, with Senator Cynthia Lummis announcing it will head to markup in May, a potential step toward clearer digital asset rules in the United States.

Simultaneously, the US Treasury updated sanctions to include new crypto addresses tied to the Central Bank of Iran, highlighting the ongoing intersection of geopolitics and digital finance. Despite the volatility, institutional demand shows resilience, as evidenced by BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF options reaching record open interest. This signals that sophisticated capital views current weakness as a potential entry point, providing a stabilising counterweight to short-term panic.

These events underscore a critical inflection point for digital assets. The market is maturing, but it remains susceptible to both technical leverage flushes and external macro shocks. The Kelp DAO exploit, while severe, tests the resilience of decentralised finance protocols and the industry’s capacity for coordinated response.

The massive liquidity drain from Aave demonstrates the interconnectedness of the ecosystem, where a failure in one component can rapidly propagate throughout it. The ongoing institutional adoption, exemplified by record interest in ETF options, suggests a growing recognition of Bitcoin’s role as a strategic asset class, distinct from its speculative trading persona.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Bitcoin at US$75,872: Why the next 72 hours will determine if this rally has legs

Bitcoin at US$75,872: Why the next 72 hours will determine if this rally has legs
Bitcoin’s recent advance to US$75,872.83, a 2.73 per cent gain over 24 hours, tells a story that extends far beyond simple price action. This move outpaced the broader crypto market, which rose 1.92 per cent to a total capitalisation of US$2.55T, even as traditional equity indices largely retreated. The primary engine behind this divergence is unmistakable: institutional capital flowing through spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Weekly inflows reached US$996.38M, the strongest pace since January, pushing total ETF assets above US$102B. This is not speculative noise. This represents a deliberate recalibration of institutional portfolios, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the charge. When nearly US$1B of structured capital enters the market in a single week, it creates a tangible floor beneath the price. It anchors Bitcoin’s value in a way that retail enthusiasm alone cannot. This institutional conviction, returning after a volatile first quarter, forms the bedrock of the current bullish momentum.

The macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop provided a supportive tailwind, though it was not the root cause. Easing tensions between the United States and Iran, coupled with softer-than-expected US CPI data, helped lift risk sentiment across the board. The broader crypto market cap rose 2.18 per cent on this news. Bitcoin’s 74 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 indicates it is still dancing to a macro tune. This correlation is a double-edged sword. It grants Bitcoin legitimacy as a risk asset within traditional portfolios and tethers its fate to central bank policy and geopolitical shocks. The recent equity session on April 21, 2026, illustrates this tension.

The S&P 500 fell 0.2 per cent to 7,109.14, the Nasdaq declined 0.3 per cent to 24,404.39, and the DAX dropped 1.15 per cent to 24,417.80 as tensions in the Middle East flared. Bitcoin held its ground. This relative strength suggests that while macro factors set the stage, the specific supply-demand dynamics of Bitcoin, driven by ETF flows, are now the dominant actors.

Beyond the ETF wrappers, we see even more compelling evidence of strategic accumulation. Michael Saylor’s Strategy deployed US$2.54B to acquire 34,164 BTC, while Tom Lee’s BitMine allocated US$235M for 101,627 ETH. These are not trades. These are balance sheet decisions made by entities treating digital assets as core, long-term holdings.

This type of buying absorbs liquid supply directly from the market, creating a structural shortage that supports higher prices. It signals a profound shift in perception among a certain class of investors. They are not chasing momentum. They are building a foundation. This institutional activity provided the initial spark that ignited a technical breakout.

Bitcoin breached a key multi-month downtrend, triggering a cascade of US$40M in short liquidations within 30 minutes. This squeeze was amplified in the derivatives market, where total volume surged 24.17 per cent to US$239.29T. The feedback loop is clear: institutional buying creates upward pressure, triggering technical breaks that force leveraged shorts to cover, propelling the price further.

The near-term path hinges on a few critical levels. Bitcoin is currently testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at US$75,170 while trading above its 7-day simple moving average of US$75,047. Holding this zone is essential. A sustained break above could see a retest of the US$78,320 swing high, with an extension toward US$81,951 in play.

Conversely, a failure to hold US$75,170, especially if accompanied by a slowdown in ETF inflows, risks a pullback toward the US$73,221-US$71,646 support zone. The US$76K level has emerged as a critical psychological and technical pivot. Holding it as support is vital for the next leg higher.

The market now awaits the next weekly ETF flow report as a key catalyst. Sustained inflows would validate the institutional thesis and provide fuel to challenge the US$78,320 resistance. A stall or reversal in those flows could leave the market vulnerable to profit-taking.

Regulatory developments add another layer of complexity. The SEC’s roundtable on the CLARITY Act could be a catalyst or a spoiler. Positive signals regarding regulatory clarity could sustain institutional momentum and encourage further capital deployment.

Ambiguity or hawkish rhetoric could trigger a reassessment of risk, particularly among the newer institutional entrants who are highly sensitive to policy shifts. This event underscores a persistent tension in the crypto market. Technology and its adoption continue to advance, but the regulatory framework in key jurisdictions like the United States remains unsettled. This uncertainty can cap upside momentum even in the face of strong fundamental demand.

The global market context further illuminates Bitcoin’s unique position. While US and European equities retreated on April 21, Bitcoin advanced. Its 76 per cent correlation with Gold, which rose to US$4,768.04 per ounce on safe-haven demand, hints at its evolving role as a hybrid asset. It behaves as a risk-on tech play in calm markets, and can exhibit safe-haven characteristics during geopolitical stress.

The slight softening of the US Dollar Index, down 0.12 per cent, and the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.327 per cent, create a nuanced backdrop. A weaker dollar typically supports hard assets, but rising yields can compete for capital. Bitcoin’s ability to navigate this crosscurrent is a testament to its growing maturity.

Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China’s decision to hold its loan prime rates steady at 3 per cent for 1-year and 3.5 per cent for 5-year loans provides a stable but not stimulative backdrop from a major economy, keeping global liquidity conditions in a delicate balance.

From my perspective, this moment is less about a simple price rally and more about a structural inflexion point. The convergence of relentless institutional ETF demand, strategic corporate accumulation, and a resilient technical structure creates a powerful foundation. I remain cautious of narratives that overstate the ease of this path. The correlation with traditional markets is a vulnerability during true macro shocks.

The regulatory overhang is real and can shift sentiment rapidly. The derivatives market, with its US$239.29T in volume, remains a source of amplified volatility, as the US$40M short liquidation event demonstrated. True decentralisation and resilience require more than just institutional adoption. It requires robust infrastructure, clear regulatory frameworks that protect innovation, and a continued focus on the core principles of censorship resistance and financial sovereignty.

The key watch is now clear. Can Bitcoin decisively break and hold above the US$78,320 resistance, fuelled by the next wave of ETF inflow data? A sustained move above that level would open a credible path toward US$81,951 and signal that the institutional bid is overpowering technical overhead supply. Failure to do so, particularly if ETF flows cool, would suggest the market needs to consolidate further, likely within the US$73,221 to US$76K range, to build energy for the next attempt.

The coming days will test whether this rally, built on a foundation of concrete institutional capital, has the depth to overcome the inevitable headwinds from geopolitics, macro data, and regulatory uncertainty. The data points to a bullish momentum, but in these markets, momentum is a servant, not a master. Discipline, patience, and a clear-eyed view of the key levels will separate the informed participant from the merely hopeful.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Bitcoin short squeeze wipes out US$400M in 24 hours: What comes next

Bitcoin short squeeze wipes out US$400M in 24 hours: What comes next

Bitcoin’s sharp rebound did more than reclaim lost ground. It triggered a broad crypto short squeeze that wiped out roughly US$400 million of bearish futures bets in a single day. This move reflects a market driven less by fresh fundamentals and more by crowded positioning, negative funding, and thin liquidity that amplified a relatively modest spot bid. The rally itself was a technical bounce driven by extreme fear and heavy short positioning, rather than a clear new macro catalyst. That distinction matters because it shapes how we interpret the next leg of price action.

The scale of the liquidation event underscores the fragility that had built up. One report estimates that over US$400 million in crypto shorts were liquidated in 24 hours, out of about US$463 million in total liquidations. Bitcoin led the charge, bouncing from the low US$60,000s to near US$69,000. Ethereum gained around 12 per cent while Solana advanced nearly 14 per cent in the same window. The broader market added about six per cent to seven per cent in a day. That liquidation tally included roughly US$200 million in Bitcoin shorts, US$153 million in Ethereum, and around US$22 million in Solana shorts across major derivatives venues. This forced buying from short sellers covering positions created a powerful feedback loop that pushed prices higher with remarkable speed.

Positioning had become dangerously one-sided in the weeks leading up to the rebound. Persistent outflows from Bitcoin products and fresh inflows into short Bitcoin vehicles showed investors had leaned bearish via derivatives and ETPs. Derivatives data revealed negative funding rates and liquidity skewed toward upside liquidations. One study highlighted roughly US$3.5 billion of shorts vulnerable if Bitcoin revisited US$70,000, versus about US$1 billion of longs at risk near US$63,000. That imbalance created an upside liquidity magnet for the price. Analysts characterised the rally as a technical bounce driven by extreme fear, heavy short positioning, and thin liquidity, rather than a clear new macro or fundamental catalyst. This dynamic rewards those who monitor funding rates and open interest as leading indicators of potential volatility.

The crypto move did not occur in isolation. Traditional markets provided a supportive backdrop. NVIDIA shares rose in extended trading after forecasting first-quarter revenue of US$76.4 billion to US$79.6 billion, significantly exceeding the US$72.8 billion analyst consensus. In the previous session, the S&P 500 reclaimed the 6,900 level, closing at 6,946.13 with a gain of 0.81 per cent. The Nasdaq Composite surged 1.26 per cent to end at 23,152.08. The US 10-year Treasury yield edged up slightly to 4.05 per cent. Markets remain focused on a 98 per cent probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its March 18 meeting. Spot gold rose to US$5,186.22 per ounce, continuing its bullish trend amidst geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty. Crude oil traded near US$65.68 a barrel as traders balanced high US inventories against potential sanctions on Iran. These cross-asset moves helped stabilise risk sentiment just as crypto derivatives were primed for a squeeze.

Regional developments added further nuance. The SET Index in Thailand rose 1.72 per cent following an unexpected 25-basis-point rate cut by the Bank of Thailand to 1.0 per cent. The South Korean won eased to approximately 1,446 per dollar as investors grew cautious ahead of the Bank of Korea’s policy meeting on February 26, where rates are expected to hold steady at 2.50 per cent. Corporate results are also filtered through. Karoon Energy reported 2025 sales revenue of US$628.6 million, noting headwinds from lower oil prices despite solid production. Integrated Research saw its shares fall 6.25 per cent following a challenging first-half fiscal report. These regional and corporate signals remind us that crypto does not trade in a vacuum. Global capital flows and risk appetite shift in tandem across asset classes and geographies.

After the squeeze, Bitcoin futures open interest slipped from over 240,000 BTC to around 235,000 BTC while funding remained slightly negative. This suggests leverage was reduced, but the market has not fully flipped to aggressive longs. Option flows also matter. Around 115,000 BTC options, notionally worth several billion dollars, are set to expire at the end of the month. Positioning around max pain levels will likely influence short-term price paths. Key technical levels many traders watch are resistance zones near US$70,000 to US$72,000 and support in the low US$60,000s, where prior selling exhausted and buyers stepped in. These levels frame the battlefield for the next move.

For informed observers, this means we are in a positioning reset phase. If shorts rebuild near resistance, another squeeze remains possible. If longs crowd in and funding flips strongly positive, the next move could be a sharp pullback instead. The market now trades in a broad range with significant options and derivatives overhang. Volatility can stay elevated as participants navigate this delicate balance. I watch funding rates, open interest trends, and price behaviour around the US$70,000 to US$72,000 band as critical signals. The upcoming options expiry adds another layer of complexity that could amplify moves in either direction.

Those who focus on positioning data rather than headlines will be better equipped to navigate what comes next. In a market where technicals and leverage often overshadow fundamentals, disciplined analysis of derivatives flows remains the most reliable compass.

 
 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j