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The great crypto disconnect: US inflation drops, but BTC keeps falling

The great crypto disconnect: US inflation drops, but BTC keeps falling

While Asian equities celebrated renewed optimism following softer-than-expected US inflation data, the cryptocurrency market entered another phase of retreat, weighed down by a confluence of structural and behavioural forces that signal a deeper realignment in investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6 per cent, buoyed by semiconductor leader TSMC and SoftBank Group, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.1 per cent ahead of a highly anticipated Bank of Japan policy decision.

This regional strength stemmed directly from the US Consumer Price Index’s unexpected drop to 2.7 per cent in November, well beneath the forecasted 3.1 per cent and marking the weakest annual gain since early 2021. Markets interpreted this data as a green light for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, injecting fresh momentum into risk assets across Asia.

At the same time, crypto experienced a further 0.79 per cent decline over the past 24 hours, extending its seven-day slide to 7.57 per cent. This divergence underscores a critical transformation underway. Bitcoin and other digital assets are no longer moving in lockstep with macro liquidity signals or tech-sector sentiment. Instead, they face internal pressures so profound that even historically supportive macro backdrops fail to provide a floor.

Gold surged to an all-time high of US$4330 per ounce, while silver breached US$66 per ounce, levels never before seen in financial history. This shift toward metals reflects a pronounced change in risk perception among institutional and retail investors alike. Unlike in previous cycles, when crypto often benefited from expectations of monetary easing or inflation fears, today’s capital flows into tangible, state-endorsed stores of value rather than decentralised alternatives.

Bitcoin, despite its decade-long narrative as digital gold, has failed to capture this demand. Year-to-date, it is down approximately 8 per cent, and its price correlation with the Nasdaq-100 has weakened to a near-zero 24-hour correlation coefficient of negative 0.03. This decoupling reveals a troubling reality. Crypto’s identity as a risk-on asset is being challenged not only by external macroeconomic conditions but also by its own inability to serve as a reliable hedge during periods of economic uncertainty. Investors now seem to view gold and silver, rather than bitcoin, as the primary beneficiaries of monetary instability, geopolitical tensions, and inflation volatility.

Compounding this macro-level rejection is a relentless wave of selling from bitcoin’s most steadfast cohort, long-term holders. According to available data, nearly US$300 billion worth of bitcoin that had remained dormant for over one year re-entered active circulation in 2025 alone. This represents the largest distribution by long-term holders since 2020 and includes approximately 1.6 million coins that had been untouched for at least two years. The significance of this behaviour cannot be overstated. These are not speculative traders reacting to short-term volatility. They are early adopters, whales, and conviction-driven investors who have weathered multiple market cycles. Their decision to sell suggests a fundamental reassessment of bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.

This exodus has coincided precisely with bitcoin’s 30 per cent decline from its October peak of US$126000, indicating that the selling pressure is not merely a reaction to price drops but a driving force behind them. The phenomenon resembles a slow bleed, a steady offloading into thin order books that lacks the drama of a crash but inflicts sustained downward pressure. With the 24-hour Relative Strength Index sitting at 36.36, just above the oversold threshold of 30, the market teeters on the edge of potential capitulation. If that support breaks, a deeper correction could follow, particularly if long-term holders accelerate their distributions.

Further amplifying the downside has been a wave of forced liquidations in the derivatives market. Over the past 24 hours, US$176 million in bitcoin positions were liquidated, with long positions accounting for 66 per cent of those losses, a clear sign of leveraged bullish bets being unwound. This liquidation cascade acted as a multiplier on the initial selling pressure, pushing prices lower in a feedback loop that discouraged new buyers.

There is a silver lining in this deleveraging. Open interest in bitcoin perpetual futures has declined by four per cent, indicating that traders are reducing their leverage exposure. This deleveraging, while painful in the short term, lowers the systemic risk of a disorderly collapse. A less leveraged market is more resilient to flash crashes and more likely to stabilise once sentiment shifts. The immediate impact remains bearish, as each wave of liquidations reinforces the perception of weakness and deters momentum-driven capital from entering.

What makes this moment particularly significant is the behaviour of capital within the crypto ecosystem itself. Bitcoin dominance now stands at 59.36 per cent, a three-month high, which might superficially suggest strength. In reality, it reflects a broader flight from the asset class altogether, not a rotation into bitcoin from altcoins, but a wholesale exit from crypto in favour of traditional safe havens. Investors are not reallocating within digital assets. They are withdrawing from them. This trend raises an urgent question for the coming months.

Can institutional inflows through spot ETFs offset the sustained outflow from long-term holders? Some analysts argue that institutional participation, fuelled by ETF approvals and allocations from major financial firms, is already reducing bitcoin’s volatility, citing a 68 per cent price swing in 2025 compared to Nvidia’s 120 per cent as evidence of maturation. That theoretical stability means little when real-time price action tells a story of persistent selling and broken technical levels.

In conclusion, the US$2.88 trillion market capitalisation level, derived from key Fibonacci retracement levels, emerges as a critical support zone. A decisive close below this threshold could trigger an additional five to seven per cent drop as algorithmic trading models and risk-managed portfolios recalibrate their exposure. Conversely, a firm hold above this level, combined with signs of stabilisation in long-term holder behaviour and renewed ETF inflows, could set the stage for a relief rally. For now, the path of least resistance remains downward.

The confluence of safe-haven rotations, veteran investor profit-taking, and derivatives deleveraging has created a perfect storm that even favourable macro news from the US CPI cannot immediately dispel. Bitcoin may be maturing with respect to volatility metrics, but maturity also entails facing the consequences of market-structure shifts without the artificial buoyancy of speculative fervour.

The next few weeks, especially in the wake of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision and continued Fed commentary, will determine whether this correction marks a temporary pause in a structural bull market or the beginning of a more prolonged reassessment of crypto’s role in a post-rate-hike, risk-conscious world.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-great-crypto-disconnect-us-inflation-drops-but-btc-keeps-falling-20251219/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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CPI countdown: How Friday’s inflation data could make or break the crypto rally

CPI countdown: How Friday’s inflation data could make or break the crypto rally

Recent market movements reflect a cautious optimism that hinges on several interlocking variables, none more pivotal than the upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. With core CPI projected to rise 0.3 per cent month-over-month, marking the third consecutive month at that pace, and annual core inflation holding steady at 3.1 per cent, investors are navigating a narrow corridor between hope for monetary easing and fear of persistent price pressures. This tension is evident across both traditional and digital markets, where risk appetite has improved but remains fragile.

Equity markets responded positively to signals of thawing US-China relations, as the White House confirmed that former President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his Asia tour. Though Trump is not currently in office, the symbolic weight of such a meeting, combined with broader expectations of de-escalation in trade tensions, lifted sentiment.

US equities posted gains across the board on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 0.31 per cent, the S&P 500 up 0.58 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite leading the charge with a 0.89 per cent advance, driven largely by technology stocks. This tech-led rally underscores a persistent dynamic. Bitcoin and other risk assets continue to trade in close correlation with the Nasdaq-100, currently exhibiting a 0.61 correlation coefficient. As such, any volatility in the tech sector will likely spill over into crypto markets.

Simultaneously, Treasury yields moved higher in anticipation of Friday’s CPI release. The 10-year yield rose by 5.2 basis points to 4.001 per cent, while the 2-year yield climbed 4.4 basis points to 3.489 per cent. These moves reflect investors recalibrating their expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Markets now assign a 98.3 per cent probability to a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, a dramatic shift fuelled partly by the delayed CPI report and partly by perceived regulatory leniency.

Reports circulated that Trump pardoned Changpeng Zhao, the founder of Binance. While the veracity of that pardon claim warrants scrutiny given Trump’s current non-presidential status, the market interpreted it as a signal of reduced regulatory hostility toward major crypto players. This perception alone has been enough to ease anxiety and encourage capital deployment.

The US Dollar Index edged up marginally to 98.936, a modest gain of 0.04 per cent, while gold rose 0.68 per cent to US$4,126.28 per ounce, a notable level that reflects both safe-haven demand and inflation hedging ahead of the CPI print. Meanwhile, Brent crude surged 5.4 per cent to US$65.99 per barrel following the enforcement of US sanctions on leading Russian oil firms, adding another layer of macro uncertainty through potential energy price volatility.

Within the crypto sphere, the past 24 hours saw a 1.96 per cent increase in total market capitalisation, extending a weekly gain of 1.44 per cent. Despite this momentum, the market remains 3.87 per cent below its 30-day high, suggesting that while sentiment has stabilised, full bullish conviction has yet to return. Three primary forces are driving this rebound. Binance’s reinforced market dominance, improving macro conditions, and renewed excitement around decentralised finance innovation, particularly around stablecoin design and real-world asset tokenisation, all contribute to the current uplift.

Binance’s role in this rally cannot be overstated. The exchange reported US$2.55 trillion in monthly futures trading volume, according to CoinMarketCap, and captured a staggering 87 per cent of Bitcoin futures taker volume. Its spot market share has climbed to 41.1 per cent, with institutional inflows concentrating in BTC/USDT pairs. This dominance signals a significant shift in market psychology.

After the collapse of FTX, users and institutions alike grew wary of centralised exchange counterparty risk. Binance’s ability to not only survive its own regulatory reckoning but also expand its liquidity depth has restored a measure of trust. Capital is flowing back, not just from retail, but from institutional players seeking reliable on and off ramps. The upcoming relaunch of WazirX on October 24, with zero-fee trading, could further catalyse retail participation, especially in emerging markets where cost sensitivity remains high.

On the macro front, the delayed CPI report has created a temporary window of ambiguity that markets are exploiting for risk-taking. With inflation expectations anchored around 3.1 per cent year-over-year for core CPI, traders are betting that the Fed will pivot toward easing as early as next week.

Historically, lower interest rates weaken the US dollar and boost non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold. The tight correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 complicates this narrative. If tech stocks stumble, perhaps on disappointing earnings or hawkish Fed commentary, crypto could quickly lose its footing, regardless of monetary policy shifts.

Perhaps the most forward-looking driver of current market dynamics lies in DeFi innovation. Solana’s ecosystem has gained attention with the launch of USX, a yield-bearing stablecoin developed by SolsticeFi. Unlike traditional algorithmic or fiat-collateralised stablecoins, USX employs a proof-of-reserve model verified by Chainlink oracles, enhancing transparency and trust. Social mentions of USX surged 67 per cent, indicating strong community and developer interest. This innovation arrives at a critical time, as the stablecoin sector seeks alternatives to centralised models following repeated regulatory crackdowns.

Concurrently, Ethereum shows technical signs of recovery, with its 14-day Relative Strength Index at 48.38, below the neutral 50 mark but with room to run if it breaches the US$3,900 resistance level. Institutional-grade DeFi applications are also gaining traction, exemplified by T-RIZE’s US$300 million real estate tokenisation initiative, which bridges traditional finance with blockchain infrastructure.

Despite these positive developments, caution remains warranted. Bitcoin’s market dominance stands at 59.3 per cent, a level that typically signals investor preference for safety within the crypto space and hesitation toward altcoins. This suggests that while capital is returning, it is doing so selectively. Ethereum and Solana benefit from strong narratives, including scalability, institutional adoption, and novel financial primitives, but they must contend with Bitcoin’s gravitational pull.

The immediate future hinges on Friday’s CPI data. A print below 3.1 per cent year-over-year for core inflation would likely validate the market’s dovish expectations, potentially extending the current rally across equities, crypto, and commodities. A hotter-than-expected number could trigger a sharp reversal, as it would force a reassessment of Fed policy and reignite fears of prolonged high rates. In such a scenario, even Binance’s liquidity depth and DeFi’s innovation might not be enough to sustain momentum.

In conclusion, today’s market wrap reveals a complex interplay of short-term catalysts and long-term structural trends. The crypto market is no longer an isolated domain. It responds acutely to macroeconomic signals, regulatory whispers, and technological breakthroughs. Binance’s dominance provides a foundation of liquidity, easing macro fears offer temporary tailwinds, and DeFi’s evolution promises sustainable growth beyond speculative cycles.

The path forward remains contingent on external data, most immediately the CPI report, that will either confirm the market’s optimism or expose its fragility. Investors would do well to balance enthusiasm with vigilance, recognising that in this new era of interconnected finance, no asset class moves in isolation.

 

Source: https://e27.co/cpi-countdown-how-fridays-inflation-data-could-make-or-break-the-crypto-rally-20251024/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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Soft landing or FOMO return? Markets rally on Fed cut amidst inflation caution

Soft landing or FOMO return? Markets rally on Fed cut amidst inflation caution

Global risk sentiment has improved markedly in recent days, driven by the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates, which has injected fresh optimism into financial markets worldwide. Investors appear to view this move as a signal that policymakers are prioritising economic growth amid signs of a cooling labour market, even as inflation remains somewhat elevated. The cut has ripple effects across asset classes, from equities to commodities and cryptocurrencies, fostering an environment where risk-taking feels more rewarded. In this context, Wall Street has pushed to new heights, while emerging trends in digital assets suggest a sector on the cusp of broader institutional acceptance.

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in its benchmark rate on September 17, bringing it down from previous levels and marking the first easing since late last year. This adjustment aims to support hiring and prevent a sharper slowdown in employment, as recent data showed initial jobless claims dropping significantly to 231,000 for the week ending September 13, the largest decline in nearly four years. Officials emphasised that the move addresses risks to the job market while keeping an eye on inflation, which ticked up slightly to 2.9 per cent in August but remains within a manageable range. Markets had largely anticipated this step, with probabilities exceeding 75 per cent leading up to the announcement, though some volatility ensued as traders digested the forward guidance indicating potential for two more cuts by year-end.

In contrast, the Bank of England opted to hold its key rate steady at four per cent on September 18, citing persistent inflationary pressures alongside uncertainties in growth and the jobs landscape. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to maintain the status quo, with members expressing caution that the UK economy is not yet out of the woods on price stability. Looking ahead, the Bank of Japan is set to reveal its policy stance today, with expectations leaning toward no change from the current 0.5 per cent short-term rate, as officials navigate tariff risks and a potential US slowdown. These divergent approaches among major central banks highlight a global economy at a crossroads, where easing in one region could spill over to influence others.

Equity markets have responded positively overall, with US indices scaling fresh peaks on September 18. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.27 per cent to close above 46,000, the S&P 500 advanced 0.48 per cent to around 6,600, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 0.94 per cent to over 22,200, buoyed by strength in technology shares. This rally reflects investor confidence that lower borrowing costs will sustain corporate earnings and consumer spending. Yields on US Treasuries moved higher in response to the robust jobless claims figure, which eased fears of a rapid labour market deterioration. The 10-year Treasury note rose three basis points to above 4.11 per cent, while the 2-year yield increased two basis points to 3.56 per cent. Such movements suggest markets are pricing in a soft landing rather than a recession, though the bond market’s reaction also underscores ongoing sensitivity to economic data.

Currency and commodity dynamics have shifted as well. The US dollar index strengthened by 0.49 per cent to 97.35, benefiting from the perception of relative US economic resilience amid global uncertainties. Gold prices dipped 0.4 per cent to US$3,643.40 per ounce, as profit-taking followed a recent record high, with the metal’s appeal dimming slightly in a risk-on environment. Brent crude oil fell 0.9 per cent to US$67.32 per barrel, pressured by concerns over US demand despite the rate cut’s potential to stimulate activity. These declines illustrate how commodities are caught between supportive monetary policy and lingering worries about global growth, particularly with trade tensions simmering.

Asian equities displayed a mixed performance, trimming some gains post the Fed’s meeting but still showing resilience in key benchmarks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 crossed the 45,000 threshold for the first time, closing higher amid a tech-led advance, reflecting spillover optimism from US markets. Early trading today saw varied movements across the region, with US futures pointing to a positive open, suggesting the upbeat sentiment may persist. This regional response highlights the increasing interconnectedness of global markets, with policy shifts in the US often setting the tone for Asia’s trading sessions.

Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, have shown remarkable vigour, with Bitcoin maintaining momentum around US$117,000 despite initial sluggishness following the rate cut. Technical indicators point to a bullish setup, with a trend line support at US$115,800 and recent breaks above resistances at US$116,200 and US$116,500. The price peaked at US$117,920 before a minor retracement to the 50 per cent Fibonacci level near US$116,750. Analysts anticipate resistance at US$117,500 and US$117,850, with a clear breach of US$118,000 potentially propelling it toward US$118,500 or even US$118,800. On-chain data reveals strong institutional accumulation, with ETF flows and whale activity supporting the floor. Social media discussions on platforms such as X highlight this breakout potential, with traders noting that a close above US$117,000 on high volume could ignite further upside. However, overbought signals from the RSI above 88 suggest a possible short-term pullback, with supports at US$116,550 and US$115,800 if resistance holds firm.

Solana has emerged as a standout performer, rallying beyond US$250, its highest in nearly eight months, and outperforming the altcoin market by 25 per cent over the past month. Institutional adoption drives this surge, with corporations holding over 17 million SOL tokens valued at US$4.3 billion. Notable players include Forward Industries with 6.82 million SOL, Sharps Technology at 2.14 million, and others like Defi Development Corp and Upexi Inc., nearing 2 million each. Helius Medical Technologies’ $500 million SOL treasury program echoes strategies like MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin reserves, bolstering SOL’s case as a reserve asset. The blockchain’s total value locked stands at US$14.6 billion, making it the second-largest DeFi ecosystem, while a 6.8 per cent staking yield surpasses Ethereum’s 2.9 per cent. Options data shows higher call premiums, indicating bullish trader sentiment, with predictions eyeing US$300 as the next target amid ETF approval hopes. X conversations amplify this enthusiasm, with users pointing to treasury strategies and network upgrades as catalysts.

Regulatory developments have further catalysed crypto’s ascent. The US and UK signed a memorandum to collaborate on quantum computing and AI, impacting blockchain security. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong expressed confidence in the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passing through Congress, clarifying the roles of the SEC and CFTC. Australia’s ASIC eased stablecoin licensing, while the SEC approved Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund—the first multi-asset crypto ETF and proposed rule changes to expedite ETF listings. These steps signal a maturing framework, reducing uncertainty and attracting institutional capital.

From my perspective, this moment feels pivotal for cryptocurrencies. The convergence of monetary easing, regulatory clarity, and institutional inflows positions digital assets for sustained growth, potentially eclipsing traditional markets in volatility but also in returns. Bitcoin’s resilience above US$117,000 amid broader economic shifts suggests it’s evolving from a speculative play to a legitimate hedge, much like gold in past cycles. I remain cautious. Rate cuts don’t erase risks like stagflation or geopolitical tensions, and crypto’s history of sharp corrections warrants prudence. Investors should diversify their portfolios and closely monitor macroeconomic indicators.

Source: https://e27.co/soft-landing-or-fomo-return-markets-rally-on-fed-cut-amidst-inflation-caution-20250919/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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