Tag Archives: labour

Breaking: US Labour Department opens door to crypto in 401(k) plans, market jumps 1.86%

Breaking: US Labour Department opens door to crypto in 401(k) plans, market jumps 1.86%

The crypto market advanced 1.86 per cent to US$2.34T over 24 hours, driven primarily by a major institutional catalyst. This rally shows a strong 93 per cent correlation with the S&P 500, indicating a shared macro-driven move rather than isolated crypto speculation. The primary reason for this surge is a US Department of Labour proposal to allow retirement plans to invest in crypto, potentially unlocking trillions in institutional capital. Secondary factors include sustained positive sentiment from recent regulatory clarity from the SEC and CFTC, and technical breakouts in specific altcoin sectors like Layer 1s. The near-term market outlook suggests momentum could extend toward the US$2.38T to US$2.41T resistance zone if the March Jobs Report on April 3 supports a dovish Fed narrative, while a weak report could trigger a pullback toward US$2.27T support.

The key driver behind this institutional capital catalyst is a proposed rule from the US Department of Labour that would permit 401(k) retirement plans to include cryptocurrencies. This news circulated widely on social media and signals a potential flood of long-term institutional capital, which could directly boost market sentiment. This represents a structural bullish development because it reduces a major barrier for institutional adoption and provides a new source of predictable demand. When retirement accounts gain the ability to allocate even small percentages to digital assets, the cumulative effect could reshape market dynamics. The proposal indicates a shift in how regulators view crypto, moving from skepticism toward cautious integration within established financial frameworks. This change matters because it validates crypto as an asset class worthy of long-term savings, not just speculative trading.

Regulatory clarity continues to support market strength as participants digest the recent SEC and CFTC joint guidance classifying major assets as commodities. This guidance reduces regulatory overhang and provides a cleaner operating environment for projects and investors. Concurrently, the Layer 1 sector outperformed, posting a 2.25 per cent gain, fuelled by events such as Algorand’s recognition in a Google quantum security report. Regulatory tailwinds provide a foundation for growth while capital rotates into fundamental narratives, indicating a maturing rally beyond pure speculation. When investors see projects advancing on technical merits like quantum resistance, they allocate capital based on long-term utility rather than short-term hype. This shift toward fundamentals suggests the market is developing deeper roots and attracting more sophisticated participants.

The immediate trajectory hinges on the March US Jobs Report released on April 3. A weak number could reinforce rate-cut hopes, supporting a test of the US$2.38T level, which represents the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement, to the US$2.41T level at the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement. Conversely, strong data may pressure risk assets, with the US$2.27T swing low acting as critical support. Traders should watch whether volume sustains above the 7-day moving average at US$2.33T. This technical perspective matters because it frames the market’s next move in terms of observable levels, allowing participants to manage risk while staying aligned with the broader bullish narrative. The interplay between macro data and technical structure will likely dictate whether the rally extends or consolidates.

Global markets experienced a euphoric rally on April 1, 2026, primarily driven by optimism regarding a potential de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. US indices surged on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, following unconfirmed reports that Iran’s president expressed willingness to end hostilities on certain conditions. The S&P 500 jumped 2.9 per cent to close at 6,528.52, marking its best daily performance since May 2024. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 3.8 per cent to 21,590.63, led by a recovery in mega-cap technology shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained over 1,100 points, a 2.4 per cent increase, to end at 46,341.51. This broad-based strength in traditional markets provided a supportive backdrop for crypto’s advance, reinforcing the high correlation between risk assets.

International markets reflected this optimism, with Asia-Pacific markets in Sydney, Tokyo, and Hong Kong poised to open at least one per cent higher following the Wall Street rally. ASX 200 futures rose 1.5 per cent while the Straits Times Index recently crossed the 5,000 mark for the first time. European equity futures indicated a positive start, with the euro rising 0.2 per cent to US$1.1572. In commodities, West Texas Intermediate steadied around US$102 per barrel after prices fell 1.5 per cent on Tuesday when President Trump suggested the US might leave Iran within 2 to 3 weeks. Gold surged 2.8 per cent to US$4,654 per ounce as investors balanced safe-haven demand with high volatility. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1 per cent, losing safe-haven appeal amid hopes of de-escalation. Within this complex tapestry, Bitcoin remained stable at US$68,137 while Ether saw a marginal decline to US$2,103, showing relative resilience amid broader risk-on sentiment.

The economic outlook presents both opportunities and risks as the IMF projects 3.3 per cent global growth for 2026, though persistent US inflation and geopolitical tensions remain key downside risks. J.P. Morgan forecasts a 35 per cent probability of a US recession in 2026, citing sticky inflation as a prevailing theme. This macro uncertainty underscores why the crypto market’s correlation with traditional indices matters. When institutional capital enters through retirement channels, it may dampen volatility over time, but near-term price action will still respond to inflation data, employment reports, and central bank signals. The market’s ability to hold gains above the US$2.33T 7-day moving average will signal whether bullish conviction outweighs macro caution.

As the crypto market integrates more deeply with traditional finance, its movements will increasingly reflect a blend of crypto-native catalysts and broader economic forces. This convergence demands that investors maintain a dual focus, tracking both on-chain developments and macro indicators. The path forward likely involves volatility, but the direction appears upward as institutional gates slowly open and regulatory frameworks solidify. Either outcome would represent a normal phase within a larger bullish trend, one powered by genuine adoption rather than speculation alone.

 

Source: https://e27.co/breaking-us-labour-department-opens-door-to-crypto-in-401k-plans-market-jumps-1-86-20260401/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Tech crash 2.0: AI hype meets labour reality as Nasdaq and Bitcoin tumble in tandem

Tech crash 2.0: AI hype meets labour reality as Nasdaq and Bitcoin tumble in tandem
At the heart of this turmoil lies a potent mix of deteriorating labour market conditions, evaporating liquidity in digital asset markets, and a sharp repricing of artificial intelligence-driven equity valuations that had been stretched to unsustainable levels. The data paints a coherent picture of a market losing its nerve, with investors rapidly rotating out of speculative assets and into safer havens, even as technical indicators flash warnings of oversold conditions that may soon invite a countertrend move.

The trigger for this week’s pullback was unequivocally the labour market report from Challenger, Grey & Christmas, which revealed that US-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October 2025. This figure represents a staggering 175 per cent increase compared to the same month last year and marks the highest number of October layoffs since 2003.

The scale of these cuts, driven by a combination of slowing consumer and corporate spending and the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence for cost optimisation, sent shockwaves through equity markets already anxious about lofty valuations in the tech sector. The data provided tangible evidence of an economic slowdown that many investors had previously dismissed as transitory, forcing a reassessment of the resilience of the US economy in the face of persistent inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates.

This reassessment was immediately reflected in the performance of US equities on Thursday, November 6, 2025. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite bore the brunt of the selloff, plummeting 1.9 per cent, while the broader S&P 500 declined by 1.1 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.8 per cent. The sharp move lower in the Nasdaq, in particular, was a direct consequence of investors taking profits from AI-related stocks that had powered the market’s rally for much of the year.

The behaviour of the US Treasury market further validated this flight from risk. As investors sought safety, yields on government debt fell sharply. The yield on the two-year Treasury note dropped by 7.2 basis points to settle at 3.557 per cent, while the benchmark 10-year yield declined by 7.6 basis points to close at 4.083 per cent. This rally in bonds signalled growing expectations that the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle may be nearing its end, or that a more severe economic downturn could be on the horizon, prompting a potential pivot in monetary policy.

The US Dollar Index, a traditional safe-haven asset, paradoxically weakened, falling by 0.5 per cent to 99.71. This counterintuitive move can be interpreted as a sign that the market’s fear is not of a global crisis that would boost demand for the dollar, but rather a more domestic US-centric slowdown. In such a scenario, the expectation of future rate cuts by the Fed outweighs the currency’s safe-haven appeal. This narrative was reinforced by the action in the commodities market.

Gold, the ultimate monetary hedge, saw its price rise to US$4,001 per ounce, a gain of 1.5 per cent, as capital rotated into a store of value perceived to be outside the direct influence of central bank policy. Conversely, oil prices weakened as the prospect of a US economic slowdown dented demand expectations. Brent crude settled at US$63.38 per barrel, down 0.2 per cent, a move exacerbated by Saudi Arabia’s decision to lower the official selling prices of its crude oil to Asian customers, a clear signal of its own concerns over future demand.

In the digital asset space, the market’s reaction was swift and severe. The crypto market fell 1.65 per cent over the last 24 hours, extending a 7.2 per cent weekly loss. This selloff was not driven by a single factor but by a perfect storm of negative catalysts. The primary trigger was a decisive technical breakdown in Bitcoin’s price structure.

For weeks, the US$100,000 level had served as a critical psychological and structural support. When Bitcoin’s price dropped below this key threshold, it activated a cascade of automated sell orders from a fragile market that had been clinging to hope. This breakdown was confirmed by its close below its 365-day moving average at US$102,000, a long-term trend indicator whose breach is a serious bearish signal for long-term investors.

Compounding this technical failure was a dramatic evaporation of market liquidity. In an environment of fear, traders became unwilling to take on risk. Derivatives volume plunged by 39 per cent in 24 hours, with open interest collapsing to its lowest level since May 2025.

The spot-to-perpetual trading ratio of 0.24, a metric that shows the dominance of leveraged trading over simple spot transactions, indicated that traders were not just selling but were also actively avoiding any form of leveraged position. This lack of liquidity amplified the price moves, creating a negative feedback loop where a small sell order could create a disproportionately large price drop due to the absence of buyers.

The behaviour of the spot Bitcoin ETFs provided the most compelling evidence of a macro-driven selloff. This week, these funds saw a staggering US$3.6 billion in net redemptions, marking one of the worst outflow streaks since their inception. This was not a retail-driven panic but a wholesale retreat by institutional investors. These large players, who are more attuned to macroeconomic signals and portfolio risk management, used the ETFs as a convenient vehicle to exit their crypto exposure en masse.

Their actions decisively tethered the fate of the entire crypto market to that of the Nasdaq, with the two assets showing a near-perfect 0.95 correlation this week. This link demonstrates that for the current market cycle, crypto is being treated not as a separate, uncorrelated asset class, but as a high-beta, risk-on component of the broader technology and growth equity complex.

The path forward for the markets is now precariously balanced on a knife’s edge. The current oversold conditions in both the Nasdaq and Bitcoin, with the latter’s RSI at a low 31.5, suggest that a short-term bounce is a distinct possibility. A sustained recovery will require a fundamental shift in the underlying narrative. For equities, that would mean evidence that the labour market is stabilising or that the Fed is ready to signal a clear pivot towards rate cuts.

For Bitcoin, the critical threshold is a decisive daily close back above the US$100,000 level to invalidate the bearish technical structure, coupled with a halt to the ETF outflows and a return of institutional confidence. Until these conditions are met, the market will remain vulnerable to any further negative macroeconomic data, and the current risk-off environment is likely to persist.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Crypto rebounds as labour data calms markets but is the rally sustainable?

Crypto rebounds as labour data calms markets but is the rally sustainable?

At first glance, the improvement in global risk appetite appears to stem from a stabilising US labour market, a critical pillar in the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate framework. The ADP employment report for October delivered a modest but symbolically important reversal, showing a net addition of 42,000 private-sector jobs after September’s sharply revised contraction of 29,000, itself an improvement from the initially reported 32,000 decline. This sequential recovery, however slight, offers a glimmer of resilience against the backdrop of persistent inflation concerns and lingering uncertainty around the terminal interest rate.

Equity markets responded with measured enthusiasm. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 gained 0.4 per cent, the Dow Jones climbed 0.5 per cent, and the Nasdaq led the charge with a 0.7 per cent advance. This rebound followed a tech-heavy selloff that had tested investor resolve, and the bounce suggests the presence of committed dip buyers willing to step in at lower levels. The market’s fragility remains evident in the movement of US Treasury yields, which edged higher across the curve.

The two-year yield rose by 5.4 basis points to close at 3.629 per cent, while the 10-year yield jumped 7.4 basis points to 4.159 per cent. Higher yields typically signal either expectations of stronger growth or stickier inflation, both of which could complicate the Fed’s path toward rate cuts in early 2026. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index held steady at 100.17, reflecting a balanced tug-of-war between softening safe-haven demand and the dollar’s relative yield advantage.

In commodities, gold advanced 1.2 per cent to settle at US$3979 per ounce, benefiting from the dollar’s temporary flatlining and ongoing geopolitical tensions that continue to underpin safe-haven demand. Crude oil told a different story. Brent crude dropped 1.4 per cent to US$63.52 per barrel after the Energy Information Administration reported the largest weekly build in US crude stockpiles since July. This inventory surge underscores weakening near-term demand expectations, possibly tied to China’s tepid economic recovery and Europe’s stagnation, and adds downward pressure on energy markets already grappling with oversupply concerns.

Turning to Asia, equity markets closed mixed on Wednesday but opened higher in early Thursday trading, reflecting spillover optimism from the US session. US equity index futures now point to a lower open, hinting at profit-taking or renewed caution as traders digest the week’s data flow and await the Bank of England’s policy decision. The BOE is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 4.0 per cent, a move that would align with the central bank’s recent dovish tilt amid cooling UK inflation and fragile growth.

Against this macro backdrop, the cryptocurrency market staged a modest but notable recovery, rising 2.15 per cent over the past 24 hours. This bounce comes after a punishing weekly decline of 7.8 per cent and a steep monthly drop of 18.25 per cent, suggesting that the asset class may have reached a point of technical and psychological exhaustion. Three interlocking forces appear to be driving this rebound: regulatory reprieve, ETF-related optimism, and a classic technical reset in overextended short positions.

The most immediate catalyst emerged from an unexpected source: the US government shutdown. This administrative pause has temporarily halted the Securities and Exchange Commission’s aggressive probe into the crypto treasury holdings of over 200 publicly traded companies. While shutdowns rarely produce positive market outcomes, this one inadvertently created a window of regulatory calm.

Traders seized on the pause as a signal that enforcement actions, particularly those targeting corporate crypto adoption, would be delayed, if not softened. The psychological relief was enough to lift risk appetite across the board, allowing Bitcoin and key altcoins to claw back from multi-week lows. This respite remains contingent. Once the shutdown ends and the SEC resumes operations, the threat of renewed scrutiny could quickly resurface, potentially triggering another wave of volatility.

A second, more structural driver lies in the evolving landscape of crypto exchange-traded funds. Franklin Templeton’s recent filing of an updated XRP ETF application, utilising the auto-effective S-1 mechanism previously deployed by Bitwise and Canary Capital, marks a significant, if cautious, step toward broader institutional acceptance. The move signals that major asset managers continue to explore avenues to offer crypto exposure through regulated vehicles, even for assets entangled in legal ambiguity. XRP’s unique situation casts a long shadow.

The unresolved SEC versus Ripple case continues to deter full-scale institutional endorsement, and while XRP itself rose 2.3 per cent in response to the ETF news, outpacing Bitcoin’s 1.9 per cent gain, the market’s reaction remained measured. Investors recognise that without a definitive legal resolution, any ETF approval for XRP would face heightened regulatory resistance, limiting its near-term upside potential.

Finally, the rally gained momentum from technical factors rooted in market structure. The total crypto market capitalisation, now at US$3.44 trillion, bounced precisely off the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of its recent decline, which sat at US$3.37 trillion, a confluence that often attracts algorithmic and discretionary buyers alike. Simultaneously, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed to 35.87, exiting deeply oversold territory and signalling a reduction in bearish momentum. This technical rebound was amplified by forced short-covering.

As prices began to rise, leveraged short positions faced liquidation, creating a feedback loop that accelerated the upward move. Open interest in perpetual futures contracts increased by 3.11 per cent, indicating fresh capital entering the market. Scepticism lingers: funding rates remain negative at -0.0035 per cent, suggesting that traders are still reluctant to pay a premium to maintain long positions, preferring instead to collect fees from overextended shorts.

Looking ahead, the sustainability of this rally hinges on two competing forces. On one side, the near-perfect correlation between crypto and the Nasdaq, currently at 0.96, ties Bitcoin’s fate to the broader tech sector’s performance. Any stumble in US equities, particularly among mega-cap tech stocks, will likely drag crypto lower. Compounding this vulnerability, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of US$1.3 billion over the past week, reflecting institutional caution amid macro uncertainty.

On the other side, the potential resumption of ETF approvals, especially for Ethereum or other major assets, could reignite bullish momentum. Similarly, a prolonged regulatory lull might allow the market to rebuild positioning without the spectre of enforcement actions.

For now, traders must watch key levels. Bitcoin faces formidable resistance near US$104,000, a psychological and technical barrier that has repelled previous rallies. Meanwhile, shifts in altcoin liquidity, particularly in assets like XRP, Solana, and Ethereum, will offer clues about whether this bounce evolves into a broader market rotation or remains a fleeting technical correction.

The macro environment offers neither clear tailwinds nor unambiguous headwinds. Instead, it presents a narrow corridor of opportunity, flanked by regulatory uncertainty, monetary policy crosscurrents, and fragile sentiment. Navigating this terrain will require precision, patience, and a keen eye on both data and discretion.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j