Tag Archives: market

Bitcoin pulls back to US$92,500 as market sentiment turns cautious

Bitcoin pulls back to US$92,500 as market sentiment turns cautious

Trade tensions stemming from President Donald Trump’s recent tariff threats regarding Greenland created immediate volatility across multiple asset classes. While American investors observed a public holiday on Monday, January 19, the underlying pressure became evident in overnight trading. As cash markets prepared to open on Tuesday, January 20, 2026, the ripple effects of these geopolitical developments moved through international exchanges and into the digital asset space.

US stock futures signalled a difficult start for the trading week. Futures for the S&P 500 dropped 1.1 per cent, and Nasdaq 100 futures mirrored that decline with an identical 1.1 per cent slide. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures showed slightly more resilience but still fell 0.8 per cent in pre-market activity. This downward momentum followed a significant retreat in Europe, where the Stoxx Europe 600 suffered its largest one-day loss since November. Trade-sensitive sectors like the automotive industry bore the brunt of the selling pressure, leading to a 1 per cent decline in the broad European index.

Asian markets responded to the global unease with localised sell-offs during Tuesday’s session. Both Japan’s Topix and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell by 0.7 per cent. In contrast, markets in Greater China showed greater stability, with the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong and the Shanghai Composite remaining little changed. This regional divergence suggests that while the tariff threats weigh heavily on traditional manufacturing and export hubs, some pockets of the market are attempting to find a floor despite the broader geopolitical noise.

The fixed income and currency markets reflected a classic move toward safety. When cash trading resumed, the yield on the benchmark US 10-year bond climbed three basis points to 4.26 per cent. Investors simultaneously pushed the US dollar higher against most major global currencies. Traditional havens like the Swiss franc and gold attracted significant interest. Although spot gold retreated slightly from its peak after closing at a record high on Monday, it remains near historic levels. In the energy sector, West Texas Intermediate crude oil moved against the grain of falling equities, rising to US$59.69 per barrel.

In the cryptocurrency sector, the mood reflects the same hesitation seen in traditional finance. Bitcoin and other digital assets declined, with Bitcoin trading near US$92,500. The CMC Fear and Greed Index currently sits at 42 out of 100, indicating neutral market sentiment. This represents a three-point drop within the last 24 hours. While the index has recovered from the extreme fear level of 27 recorded in December, the recent slide from 45 yesterday suggests that traders are growing increasingly wary of the current price action.

Social sentiment currently leans toward the bearish side of the spectrum. The social sentiment algorithm indicates a score of 4.85 out of 10, placing it just below the neutral threshold. Conversations among market participants are divided between reports of whale accumulation and concerns over regulatory actions, such as the delisting of specific assets like MYRO. This negative tilt in social discourse, combined with a 4.17 per cent drop in open interest to US$626.4 billion, shows that leverage is leaving the system.

Despite the prevailing gloom, technical indicators offer a more nuanced perspective. The RSI7 for the total crypto market cap has reached an oversold level of 18.82. Historically, such low readings suggest that the market might be due for a short-term relief rally. Furthermore, liquidations in Bitcoin markets fell by 94.79 per cent to US$6.46 million, suggesting that the most aggressive forced selling may have subsided for now. These technical signals create a neutral outlook where the risks of further deleveraging face off against the potential for a technical bounce.

The intersection of political threats and technical market conditions defines the current landscape. With Bitcoin dominance holding at 59.07 per cent, capital appears to be rotating into the largest digital asset as a potential hedge against broader market instability. The combination of cautious derivatives activity, mixed social signals, and renewed trade friction suggests that investors should remain prepared for continued uncertainty. While the markets are not yet in a state of panic, the shift from greed toward a more defensive posture is unmistakable.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-pulls-back-to-us92500-as-market-sentiment-turns-cautious-20260120/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Gold hits US$4,500 while Bitcoin bleeds: The year-end market disconnect explained

Gold hits US$4,500 while Bitcoin bleeds: The year-end market disconnect explained

There is a stark contrast between traditional markets and digital assets as we approach the year’s end. Asian stocks advanced at the open following the S&P 500 Index’s climb to a record high, supported by robust US economic data indicating the fastest growth pace in two years. MSCI’s regional equities gauge extended gains into a fourth consecutive day, rising 0.3 per cent, with Japanese and South Korean benchmarks leading the advance. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market tells a different story, falling 1.05 per cent over the past 24 hours and extending a seven-day decline of 0.71 per cent. This divergence highlights the complex relationship between traditional and digital asset classes during periods of economic strength and geopolitical tension.

The commodities market has captured significant attention with gold rallying to an unprecedented high of more than US$4,500 per ounce. This milestone represents gold’s strongest performance in recent memory, with its haven appeal amplified by Washington’s blockade of oil tankers linked to Venezuela. Silver also reached an all-time high, while copper prices exceeded US$12,000 per ton for the first time in history. Despite this remarkable performance in precious metals, crypto markets remained unaffected by gold’s surge, continuing their downward trajectory, even though they have historically shown some correlation during risk-off periods.

Geopolitical tensions have extended the oil price rally into a sixth consecutive session, with West Texas Intermediate crude trading above US$58.50 per barrel. These market dynamics indicate that investors are seeking traditional safe havens amid uncertainty. Yet cryptocurrency markets, often described as potential inflation hedges and stores of value, have failed to capitalise on the macroeconomic conditions that typically drive alternative investments.

The crypto market’s current weakness stems from three interconnected factors: institutional pullback, derivatives market deleveraging, and persistent risk-off sentiment. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced net outflows of US$142.2 million, marking a significant reversal from November’s US$198 million inflows. This institutional caution reflects profit-taking behaviour and growing macroeconomic uncertainty as we approach year-end. ETF flow data serve as a critical leading indicator of institutional demand, and sustained outflows could delay a meaningful market rebound until fresh capital enters the ecosystem.

Derivatives markets reflect additional pressure, as total open interest fell 4.4 per cent to US$35 billion over 24 hours. Bitcoin perpetuals funding rates spiked 102.7 per cent as leveraged traders faced substantial liquidation pressure. Long position holders paid approximately US$81.6 million in forced liquidations, highlighting the vulnerability of overleveraged positions during market downturns. This deleveraging appears partly connected to holiday trading patterns, with many participants reducing exposure ahead of the Christmas period when liquidity typically dries up. However, the elevated funding rates paradoxically suggest a lingering bullish bias among remaining traders, creating a complex market structure that is vulnerable to cascading liquidations should Bitcoin break critical support levels around US$84,000.

Market sentiment metrics reinforce this cautious outlook. The CoinMarketCap Fear & Greed Index remained at 27 out of 100, classified in the Fear category for more than 18 consecutive days. This represents the lowest sentiment reading since November and indicates severely eroded retail confidence. Social media analysis reveals growing concerns about exchange manipulation, with Binance-linked selloffs trending across major platforms. The Altcoin Season Index at 19 indicates that capital remains defensively positioned, primarily in Bitcoin rather than rotating into alternative cryptocurrencies. This defensive posture contradicts the broader market narrative of strengthening risk appetite, which has driven technology stocks higher despite strong US economic data, scaling back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing measures.

The cryptocurrency market’s current disconnect from traditional assets warrants deeper examination. While technology stocks remain in high demand despite earlier concerns about valuation and saturation in artificial intelligence investment, digital assets face significant headwinds. Traders have regained confidence that established technology companies will deliver solid earnings growth in 2026, yet similar optimism has not extended to cryptocurrency projects despite their technological innovations and growing institutional infrastructure.

Several developments could potentially shift this narrative. JPMorgan’s reported consideration of crypto trading services for institutional clients represents a significant potential catalyst, though no confirmed moves or official statements have materialised yet. This development, mentioned in market reports today, aligns with the broader trend of traditional financial institutions gradually embracing digital assets despite current market weakness. Additionally, Ethereum’s ecosystem shows signs of evolution following the Shanghai upgrade, which fundamentally altered the network’s economic dynamics by enabling withdrawals of staked ETH and altering validator behaviour. These infrastructure improvements may position Ethereum for stronger performance once market sentiment recovers.

Technical indicators suggest the cryptocurrency market has entered oversold territory, with Bitcoin’s 14-day Relative Strength Index reading at 32. Historically, such readings have often preceded meaningful rebounds, though timing such recoveries remains challenging. Market structure analysis reveals a critical liquidation cluster between US$84,000 and US$93,000, suggesting this range will determine Bitcoin’s next significant directional move. A decisive break below US$84,000 could trigger additional leveraged selling, while a sustained recovery above US$93,000 might restore bullish momentum.

The path to recovery for digital assets likely requires either renewed ETF inflows or a significant macroeconomic catalyst. Upcoming economic data releases, particularly Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report, could prove pivotal. Higher-than-expected inflation figures might delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially extending crypto’s risk-off tone as higher rates traditionally pressure growth assets. Conversely, cooling inflation data could reignite risk appetite across all asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.

This market environment creates opportunities for strategic positioning despite current weakness. The extended period of fear in the Fear & Greed Index has historically preceded market recoveries, though investors should await confirmatory signals before deploying capital aggressively. New cryptocurrency projects continue to generate interest alongside established coins, with tokens like APEMARS creating significant attention despite the broader market decline. This persistent innovation suggests underlying strength in blockchain development continues regardless of short-term price action.

As we approach year-end, investors face a complex landscape in which traditional and digital assets present divergent narratives. Strong economic data support equity markets while simultaneously pressuring expectations for monetary easing that could benefit alternative investments. Geopolitical tensions boost gold to record highs without translating to similar safe-haven demand for cryptocurrencies. Institutional capital shows caution through ETF outflows while simultaneously exploring expanded crypto services for clients.

The cryptocurrency market’s current consolidation phase may ultimately prove constructive, allowing overheated sentiment to normalise and creating a foundation for more sustainable growth. Technical oversold conditions, combined with historically low sentiment readings, suggest that a potential reversal may be approaching, though timing remains uncertain. Patient investors might view this period as an opportunity to build strategic positions while the broader market remains focused on traditional assets reaching record highs. The coming weeks will likely determine whether this divergence continues or if cryptocurrency markets reestablish correlation with the broader risk-on environment that has lifted global equities to new heights.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/gold-hits-us4500-while-bitcoin-bleeds-the-year-end-market-disconnect-explained-20251224/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

From quantitative tightening to quantitative crypto: How policy shifts are rewriting market rules

From quantitative tightening to quantitative crypto: How policy shifts are rewriting market rules

The Federal Reserve’s less hawkish stance is acting as a catalyst for renewed investor confidence across both traditional and digital asset classes. This shift is occurring as part of a broader recalibration of macro expectations, liquidity dynamics, and institutional posture toward risk.

For those engaged in the evolution of financial systems, particularly at the intersection of decentralised infrastructure and macro policy, the current moment offers insight into how legacy market frameworks are beginning to accommodate the emerging crypto native paradigm, albeit cautiously.

The Fed’s latest policy update, which shows a more dovish tilt relative to earlier guidance, has brought a degree of optimism to markets already sensitive to changes in interest rate trajectories. The decision to implement a 25 basis point rate cut, along with a pause in quantitative tightening, signals that central authorities believe inflationary pressures may be easing enough to allow a recalibration of monetary policy.

This shift coincides with an increase in US initial jobless claims, which rose by 44,000 to 236,000 in the week ending December 6, 2025, exceeding forecasts. Such labour market softness strengthens the case for a more accommodative stance from the Fed, consistent with UOB’s projection of two rate reductions in the second and third quarters of 2026, bringing the Fed Funds Target Rate to 3.25 per cent by the end of 2026.

Equity markets showed a mixed reaction, reflecting relief over the Fed’s stance and caution regarding ongoing macro uncertainties. The Dow Jones rose 1.34 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 0.21 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 0.26 per cent. This divergence suggests a rotation away from growth-oriented equities toward value and cyclical exposures. A similar dynamic is visible in crypto markets, where Bitcoin’s dominance has increased to 58.75 per cent.

Investors appear to be favouring established, large-cap digital assets as relatively safer options within a volatile risk landscape. This preference for perceived stability aligns with broader portfolio strategies that emphasise quality US equities while leaning toward non-US value and mid-cap exposures.

Fixed income markets also responded positively to the Fed’s policy shift, with US Treasury yields declining. The ten-year yield fell more than 1 basis point to 4.14 per cent, and the two-year yield dropped more than 3 basis points to 3.52 per cent. These movements indicate growing investor appetite for longer duration assets as yield differentials narrow and the path of future rate cuts becomes clearer. Bond yields are becoming attractive again from a strategic perspective, supporting allocations to high-quality fixed income as a counterbalance to equity and crypto volatility.

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar weakened, with USD/JPY falling 0.3 per cent to 155.48 in its second consecutive session of decline. This weakness is consistent with expectations of further Japanese yen strength as the Bank of Japan signals plans to raise rates in December, narrowing the yield gap with the US.

In commodities, divergent trends emerged. Brent crude fell 1.49 per cent to close at US$61.28 per barrel as market attention shifted to potential progress in Russia-Ukraine peace discussions. Gold rose 1.2 per cent to US$2,880.08 per ounce, reinforcing its role as a defensive hedge in uncertain macro environments.

In Asia, regional equities mostly closed lower following the Fed’s rate cut announcement, though early trading showed mixed performance. The strategic outlook remains overweight on Chinese equities, using a barbell approach that combines exposure to tech innovators and high dividend plays.

Against this macro backdrop, the crypto market rose 2.28 per cent in the last 24 hours, maintaining a seven-day uptrend of 0.3 per cent, though still 9 per cent below its 30-day average. This rebound appears driven not by retail speculation but by institutional momentum and favourable liquidity conditions.

Binance continues to lead global Bitcoin trading volume with a 35.4 per cent share, reflecting its established infrastructure and role as a liquidity hub. More notably, JPMorgan’s execution of a debt deal on Solana during Breakpoint 2025 marks an important moment in institutional adoption of blockchain infrastructure beyond asset speculation. This suggests Solana can support more complex financial instruments, strengthening its credibility among traditional finance participants.

US Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$223 million in inflows, the highest in 20 days, indicating renewed institutional demand for regulated crypto exposure. These flows act as a gauge of professional investor sentiment and show that macro tailwinds are influencing capital allocation decisions. Bitcoin’s price action, however, remains closely tied to equity movements, with a 0.85 correlation to the S&P 500. This dependence highlights a vulnerability: despite gaining institutional legitimacy, crypto has not yet separated itself from traditional risk-on and risk-off dynamics. The recent drop in Bitcoin to US$109,000 during a tech sector selloff illustrates this.

Another factor is the sharp rise in derivatives leverage. Perpetual futures open interest increased 11.6 per cent to US$87.9 billion, while funding rates rose 102 per cent within 24 hours. Bitcoin liquidations reached US$95 million, with 77 per cent coming from short positions, indicating strong bullish momentum but also heightened risk of a leveraged long squeeze. The seven-day RSI of 53 suggests scope for further upside if momentum persists and macro conditions remain supportive.

In conclusion, the current rally reflects a combination of institutional engagement and macro liquidity. However, it continues to unfold within a structure still linked to traditional markets. The Fed’s shift provides short-term support, but sustainability depends on whether crypto can develop independent price drivers rooted in utility, adoption, and network effects.

Key levels to watch include Bitcoin’s US$93,000 resistance and the ETH/BTC ratio, which could indicate altcoin rotation. Solana’s ability to maintain institutional interest after Breakpoint will also be important. While conditions have improved, the market’s structural dependencies and elevated leverage call for cautious optimism rather than strong enthusiasm.

 

Source: https://e27.co/from-quantitative-tightening-to-quantitative-crypto-how-policy-shifts-are-rewriting-market-rules-20251212/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j