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S&P at record highs, Bitcoin at US$115K: Why this convergence signals a new market era

As markets wrap up the weekend on September 15, investors face a pivotal moment that blends traditional equity strength with cryptocurrency resilience. The S&P 500 sits near record highs around 6,584, a level that reflects robust corporate earnings and lingering optimism about economic policy shifts, yet technical indicators hint at an impending pullback. Bitcoin hovers steadily at about US$115,000, recovering from a brief dip after touching US$116,800 last Friday, and analysts such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee fuel speculation of a surge to US$200,000 by year-end.

I see this convergence as a sign of maturing markets where risk assets increasingly move in tandem, driven by shared sensitivities to Federal Reserve actions. While the broader economy shows signs of cooling inflation and steady growth, the interplay between Wall Street giants and digital currencies underscores the need for thoughtful positioning. Households build cash reserves, bond markets price in rate relief, and global trends favor the United States, but short-term volatility looms large. In my view, this setup rewards patient diversification over concentrated bets on high-flyers, as corrections could test even the strongest performers.

The S&P 500 has delivered impressive gains through much of 2025, climbing over 14 per cent year-to-date and pushing past 6,500 in recent sessions. Companies in the index continue to surprise on the upside during earnings seasons, with the second quarter of 2025 marking the 15th out of the last 16 periods where results exceeded analyst forecasts.

Earnings growth hit around 7.6 per cent for the quarter, led by technology and financial sectors that capitalised on resilient consumer spending and easing macro pressures. Tech firms, in particular, drove much of this momentum, with cloud computing and artificial intelligence investments paying off in higher revenues. I find this pattern encouraging because it demonstrates corporate America’s adaptability in a high-interest-rate environment that persisted longer than many anticipated. However, the index’s concentration in a handful of names raises red flags for sustainability.

The so-called Magnificent Seven stocks, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla, now account for over 30 per cent of the S&P 500’s total weight, up sharply from just 12 percent eight years ago. These leaders propelled nearly half of the index’s returns in 2024 and continue to dominate in 2025, with Nvidia alone serving as a cornerstone for many portfolios due to its explosive growth in AI chip demand.

Nvidia’s role stands out as both a boon and a cautionary tale. The company reported stellar quarterly results that reinforced its position in the AI boom, with revenues surging due to increased demand for data centers. Investors flock to it for its momentum, but I advocate spreading exposure because over-reliance on one stock amplifies risks from sector-specific headwinds like supply chain disruptions or regulatory scrutiny on tech monopolies. The Magnificent Seven’s profit growth, while strong, has not matched their market cap expansion, creating a valuation stretch that could unwind in a downturn.

Enter the “Next 20” stocks, the subsequent largest companies in the S&P 500 by market cap, which span more balanced sectors such as industrials, healthcare, and consumer goods. These names have lagged the top tier but offer compelling alternatives with steadier earnings profiles and lower volatility. For instance, firms in utilities and materials beat earnings expectations at rates above 70 per cent in the recent quarter, signaling broad-based health.

In my opinion, shifting some allocation here makes sense for long-term stability, especially as AI adoption remains nascent among S&P 500 companies. Surveys show only about 11 per cent of these firms plan to implement AI tools in the next six months, leaving room for gradual productivity gains but also highlighting that the hype has outpaced reality in many boardrooms.

Technically, the S&P 500 appears overstretched after its rally, with moving averages and momentum indicators flashing warning signs. The index trades in a rising channel on medium-term charts, but negative divergence in the MACD suggests weakening upside momentum relative to price action. Key support levels cluster around 6,144 and 6,000, near the 200-day moving average, where buyers could step in during a correction.

Recent sessions show a slight pullback of 0.05 per cent to 6,584, but broader patterns point to a five to 10 per cent dip as funds rebalance and profit-taking intensifies. Historically, September ranks as the weakest month for the index, averaging negative returns since 1950, often exacerbated by fiscal year-end adjustments and seasonal liquidity drains.

I expect this tradition to hold, particularly with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting just two days away on September 17. Traders price in a near-certain 25 basis point cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 4 to 4.25 percent, followed by two more reductions in October and December.

Such moves typically spark initial volatility, as markets digest the “sell the news” reaction before embracing looser policy. US households, flush with cash from prior savings, position well to weather any turbulence, and widening bond spreads indicate that much of the anticipated relief already factors into prices.

Defensive sectors face heavy short interest as capital chases growth and momentum plays, but I believe a rebound awaits if drawdowns materialise. Investors pile into technology and consumer discretionary, where AI and e-commerce thrive, yet utilities and staples trade at discounts that could attract value hunters.

Globally, the US asserts dominance in equities, bolstering the dollar’s strength against peers and drawing inflows from emerging markets grappling with slower recoveries. AI’s low penetration rate among S&P firms tempers the narrative of an immediate revolution, but projections from analysts such as those at Morgan Stanley suggest it could unlock nearly US$920 billion in annual value through efficiency gains and innovation. Tech giants plan to pour US$371 billion into data centers this year, a figure that underscores the sector’s forward momentum.

Still, broader adoption lags, with only 20 per cent of S&P 500 boards featuring AI expertise, per recent disclosures. In my assessment, this gradual rollout favours diversified portfolios that capture upside without betting the farm on unproven technologies. The US equity market’s primacy reinforces a pro-risk environment, but global themes, such as European energy transitions and Asian manufacturing shifts, offer complementary opportunities beyond the Magnificent Seven.

Turning to Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency maintains poise around US$115,000, a level that reflects institutional maturation amid traditional market parallels. After peaking at US$116,800 on Friday, it settled with minimal fluctuation over the weekend, underscoring stability in a high-volatility asset class. Technical charts reveal solid support at US$114,000, tested but held firm, while resistance looms at US$116,200 and US$116,500.

The relative strength index hovers overbought at 81.7, signaling potential consolidation as traders book profits from the seven-day rally. I view this as a healthy breather in an otherwise bullish setup, especially with the broader crypto market up 5.25 per cent weekly despite a 0.9 per cent daily dip. Institutional interest surges, evidenced by robust inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which saw US$642 million net additions on Friday alone and over US$2.3 billion for the week.

This marks the largest weekly haul in two months, contrasting with earlier outflows and highlighting a rotation toward Bitcoin from other assets. Ethereum ETFs, meanwhile, pulled in US$624 million, but Bitcoin dominates the narrative as companies add it to balance sheets and forecast higher allocations for 2025.

Tom Lee’s bold call from Fundstrat captures the optimism swirling around Bitcoin. In a recent CNBC appearance, he linked the asset’s trajectory to monetary policy, noting its sensitivity to rate cuts and its historical strength in the fourth quarter.

Lee predicts Bitcoin could double to US$200,000 by December, a move he deems feasible given easing Fed actions and supply dynamics from the halving cycle. I appreciate his data-driven approach, drawing on past rallies where Bitcoin gained 20 to 35 per cent in Q4 bull years, but tempering enthusiasm with realism. Profit-taking pressures mount, as derivatives volume drops 27 per cent, and events like the YU stablecoin depeg to US$0.20 after a US$30 million hack inject caution across the sector. Macro jitters ahead of the Fed decision could trigger a “sell the news” event, even with 93 per cent odds of a cut.

Institutional rotations exhibit nuance, with US$3.8 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows over 30 days offset by gains in Ethereum, suggesting diversified crypto interest. Yet, Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500, around 0.3 to 0.6, implies shared downside risks in a correction. Social media buzz on platforms such as X echoes this sentiment, with traders eyeing a US$110,000 to US$130,000 range by month-end but warning of September’s historical weakness, during which Bitcoin has averaged five to seven per cent losses in seven of the last ten years.

Structured products linked to select Magnificent Seven names remain attractive for targeted exposure, offering leveraged upside with defined risks. Investors should diversify into the Next 20 and global equities to mitigate concentration dangers, as no major black swans lurk but sharp corrections persist.

Key events demand attention: the FOMC on September 17, where Chair Powell’s tone could sway sentiment, and the Bank of Japan meeting on September 19, potentially influencing yen flows and carry trades. From my perspective, the macro tailwinds favor risk assets, but overextension in equities and crypto calls for prudence. US dominance and AI’s promise sustain the bull case, yet low adoption rates and seasonal patterns urge balance.

Households’ cash hoards provide a buffer, and rate cuts, largely priced in, set the stage for volatility followed by relief. Bitcoin’s institutional embrace cements its role as a portfolio diversifier, potentially catching up to gold and stocks in a catch-up trade. Overall, I remain constructively optimistic, viewing dips as opportunities to build balanced positions that weather near-term storms and capture year-end rallies. Markets evolve, and those who adapt thrive.

 

Source: https://e27.co/sp-at-record-highs-bitcoin-at-us115k-why-this-convergence-signals-a-new-market-era-20250915/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The market just hit a nerve: Is this the start of a 7 per cent crash?

The market just hit a nerve: Is this the start of a 7 per cent crash?

The narrative of a year-end rally persists but faces headwinds from softening labour data and geopolitical shifts. In my view, this moment represents a healthy pause in an otherwise robust bull market that began surging after the dramatic events of April 2025. That month marked what President Trump dubbed Liberation Day on April 2, when he unveiled sweeping tariffs across nearly all sectors of the US economy.

The announcement sparked immediate panic and a sharp sell-off, but markets quickly rebounded as companies announced massive onshore investments to sidestep the trade barriers. This rally propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to impressive heights over the summer. Still, now signs of fatigue emerge in both the US and China, the two economic powerhouses driving global growth.

Market exhaustion and sector pressures

The United States stock market showed clear exhaustion last Friday, with major indices closing lower amid broader concerns about the pace of economic expansion. The S&P 500 declined by 0.32 per cent, the Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.03 per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.48 per cent. Energy and financial sectors led the downturn, as traders reacted to softer-than-expected labour figures and anticipation of Federal Reserve actions.

Nvidia, the bellwether of the technology sector, dipped below its 50-day moving average for the first time in weeks, trading around US$172 per share, while the average hovered at US$172.32 per share. This technical breach signals potential volatility in tech-heavy indices, where Nvidia’s performance often sets the tone.

The AI hype meets reality

Investors poured billions into artificial intelligence plays earlier this year, fuelled by the post-Liberation Day optimism, but now they demand tangible results rather than vague promises. Companies must demonstrate how AI translates into revenue and efficiency gains, or risk sharp corrections.

Salesforce exemplified this shift last week when its shares faced pressure amid fierce competition in the AI arena. The company rolled out new AI products under its Agentforce platform, aiming to empower small and medium-sized businesses with autonomous agents for tasks like customer service and data analysis.

However, rivals like Microsoft and Google intensified their offerings, with integrations that challenge Salesforce’s dominance in customer relationship management. Salesforce executives highlighted predictions that AI agents will transform industries by 2025, enabling smaller firms to compete with giants through more intelligent automation. Yet, market reaction turned skeptical as earnings reports revealed slower adoption rates than anticipated.

In my opinion, Salesforce remains well-positioned for the long term because its ecosystem seamlessly integrates AI across sales, marketing, and service tools. However, short-term hurdles from competition could cap the upside until proof of widespread deployment materialises. This evolving AI theme underscores a broader market maturation, where hype gives way to fundamentals.

Currency markets and the dollar debate

On the currency front, bets against the US dollar appear overly aggressive at this juncture. The Dollar Index closed 0.6 per cent lower last Friday at around 97.93, reflecting heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. A steadier US economy, combined with persistent inflation above the Fed’s target, suggests fewer cuts than the market currently prices in, anticipating about five 25-basis-point reductions through September 2026.

The August non-farm payrolls report added fuel to this fire, showing only 22,000 jobs added, far below the forecasted 75,000, while June figures were revised to an outright loss. Unemployment climbed to 4.3 per cent, the highest in nearly four years, prompting traders to bake in a 25 basis point cut for the September 17 meeting and even 12 per cent odds of a 50 basis point move.

Yet, I believe the dollar’s downside remains limited. President Trump’s administration has secured over US$5 trillion in new onshore investments from companies and countries alike, including a US$1 trillion commitment from Japan and US$600 billion from Saudi Arabia over the next four years.

These inflows, aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing amid the trade war, will sustain demand for the greenback. If the Dollar Index surges past 100, it could pressure US equities, particularly megacap stocks like those in the Magnificent Seven, which derive significant revenue from overseas operations.

Seasonal corrections and buying opportunities

A pullback of five to seven per cent in the S&P 500 seems likely, and perhaps steeper for the Nasdaq given its outsized gains since the Liberation Day rebound. The index wiped out all 2025 losses by mid-May, climbing from April lows around 6,000 to current levels near 6,450. No major negative catalysts loom on the horizon, such as earnings disappointments or policy shocks, so any correction should prove shallow and short-lived.

Strong buy orders cluster at key support levels, like the 200-day moving average for the S&P around 6,200, which could absorb selling pressure and preserve constructive sentiment heading into the traditional post-September rally. Historically, markets often experience the “September blues” but rebound strongly into year-end, especially when central banks ease their policy. With the Fed poised for cuts and global liquidity ample, I see this dip as a buying opportunity for long-term investors focused on AI and infrastructure themes.

Global macro landscape

Turning to the macro landscape, global risk appetite found some relief after US indices trimmed losses from recent peaks. Traders parsed the soft labor data, which highlighted a cooling job market without tipping into recession territory. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that average hourly earnings rose 0.3 per cent to US$36.53, indicating that wage pressures persist and could keep inflation sticky.

US Treasuries extended their rally, with the two-year yield dropping 7.9 basis points to 3.51 per cent and the ten-year yield falling 8.7 basis points to 4.07 per cent. This flight to safety reflects bets on aggressive Fed easing, but longer-term yields remain elevated due to fiscal expansion under the current administration. Gold prices climbed 1.2 per cent to hold above US$3,500 per ounce, reaching US$3,590 on Monday as a hedge against uncertainty.

Brent crude oil retreated 2.2 per cent toward US$65 per barrel, with OPEC+ signalling plans to increase production amid ample supply and softening demand forecasts. S&P Global analysts predict dated Brent could slide to US$55 by year-end, pressured by trade tensions and slower global growth.

Asia’s market resilience

Asian equity markets opened stronger on Monday, buoyed by political developments in Japan. The Nikkei 225 advanced 1.62 per cent to 43,714, leading gains after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation over the weekend. Ishiba stepped down following his Liberal Democratic Party’s historic election losses in July, which eroded his support and raised questions about fiscal policy continuity.

The yen weakened against the dollar on fears that political instability would delay Bank of Japan rate hikes, trading near 150 yen per chat. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.24 per cent to 3,212, while Australia’s ASX 200 dipped 0.45 per cent.

Investors now await China’s August trade data, released later today, to assess the trade war’s toll. Exports grew at the slowest pace in six months, missing forecasts as shipments to the US declined sharply despite a brief truce in tariffs. Imports fell even more, signaling weak domestic demand. The US imposed tariffs up to 145 per cent on Chinese goods this year, escalating the conflict and prompting Beijing to retaliate with measures on American agriculture and tech.

In my assessment, China’s economy faces headwinds from this standoff, but stimulus measures, such as fee cuts in its US$4.9 trillion mutual fund industry, could provide a buffer. Overall, Asian markets demonstrate resilience, with tech and value stocks trading below their estimated worth, offering attractive entry points.

Crypto markets: Signs of recovery

The cryptocurrency market mirrored broader risk assets, with Bitcoin staging a modest recovery after three weeks of declines from its all-time high of US$124,474. The leading digital asset steadied at around US$110,900 on Monday, up nearly three per cent for the week. Technical indicators support further upside if momentum builds. The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart rose to 46, indicating a shift toward the neutral 50 level as bearish pressure subsides.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence flashed a bullish crossover on Saturday, signalling improving sentiment and potential buy opportunities. Should Bitcoin push past its daily resistance at US$116,000, it could extend the rally toward US$120,000, driven by institutional inflows and halving cycle dynamics. However, a breakdown below US$105,573 in support might trigger a deeper correction toward US$100,000, especially if equity markets wobble.

Ethereum, meanwhile, consolidated between US$4,232 and US$4,488 for nine straight days, trading around US$4,300 after bouncing from the lower boundary. The RSI hovered near 50, reflecting trader indecision. A close above US$4,488 could propel Ethereum toward its record high of US$4,956, bolstered by network upgrades and ETF approvals.

Conversely, a drop below US$4,232 risks testing the 50-day exponential moving average at US$4,077. In the crypto realm, I remain bullish on both assets as adoption accelerates, but volatility tied to macro events like Fed decisions warrants caution. Bitcoin’s role as digital gold strengthens amid dollar strength debates, while Ethereum’s utility in decentralised finance positions it for outsized gains if AI integrations proliferate.

Closing thoughts: A balanced outlook

In reflecting on this market snapshot, I advocate a balanced yet optimistic stance. The post-Liberation Day rally transformed the economic landscape, channeling trillions into US onshore projects that promise job creation and supply chain resilience. Sure, trade wars with China inflict pain, curbing export growth and inflating costs, but they also spur innovation and domestic investment.

The weak jobs report underscores the need for Fed easing, which should lubricate markets without igniting inflation spirals. Political turbulence in Japan adds uncertainty, but history shows such transitions often lead to pro-growth policies.

For investors, focus on quality names in AI, renewables, and infrastructure to navigate the pullback. A five to seven per cent dip offers a chance to accumulate, as year-end tailwinds from holiday spending and tax strategies loom large.

Crypto enthusiasts should view Bitcoin’s technical rebound as a sign of resilience, while Ethereum’s consolidation suggests a breakout if global liquidity flows in. Overall, markets are taking a breather now, but the underlying momentum remains upward. Prudent positioning today sets the stage for substantial rewards by 2026.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-market-just-hit-a-nerve-is-this-the-start-of-a-7-per-cent-crash-20250908/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Gold slumps, oil tanks, Bitcoin hangs by a thread: The global market meltdown no one saw coming

Gold slumps, oil tanks, Bitcoin hangs by a thread: The global market meltdown no one saw coming

Economists projected a modest addition of 75,000 jobs, barely edging out the 73,000 from July, with whispers of a downward revision to the prior month’s figures adding an extra layer of uncertainty. This report carried significant weight, as it could sway the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates later in the month, especially amid signs of a cooling labour market.

Initial jobless claims surged to 237,000 for the week ending August 30, marking the highest level since June and underscoring a gradual softening in employment trends. Traders positioned themselves defensively, knowing that a weak print might fuel expectations for aggressive rate cuts. At the same time, a stronger-than-expected number could dampen hopes for monetary easing and pressure risk assets.

US equities managed a solid rebound on September 4, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.8 per cent to close at a fresh record high of around 6,506 points, buoyed by robust July services activity data that exceeded forecasts. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.0 per cent, reflecting renewed enthusiasm in technology stocks, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average matched the S&P’s gain at 0.8 per cent.

This rally provided a brief respite from recent volatility, as market participants digested the implications of a resilient services sector amid broader economic slowdown signals. Investors appeared to interpret the data as supportive of a soft landing scenario, where growth moderates without tipping into recession, though the looming payrolls report tempered any excessive exuberance.

Bond markets also drew attention, with Treasuries attracting bids that pushed yields lower. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield dropped six basis points to 4.161 per cent, flirting with levels not seen in over a year and signalling investor flight to safety ahead of key data. Shorter-dated two-year yields hovered near one-year lows, highlighting expectations for Federal Reserve action. This movement in yields reflected broader concerns about economic momentum, as lower rates typically encourage borrowing but also hint at underlying weaknesses in growth prospects.

Currency and commodity markets offered mixed signals. The US Dollar Index strengthened by 0.2 per cent to settle at 98.35, benefiting from the relative stability in US data compared to global counterparts. Gold, often viewed as a haven during uncertain times, slipped 0.4 per cent after an eight-day winning streak, trading around US$3,552 per ounce as some profit-taking emerged amid the dollar’s firmness.

Brent crude oil declined 1.0 per cent to US$68 per barrel, pressured by ongoing demand worries and ample supply, though OPEC’s potential output decisions loomed as a wildcard. These shifts underscored a market grappling with inflation fears receding but growth risks mounting.

In Asia, equity benchmarks largely trended lower on September 5, dragged by underperformance in major hubs. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 1.1 per cent, while the Shanghai Composite dropped nearly two per cent, reflecting investor unease over domestic economic stimulus measures and lingering trade tensions. Other markets like Tokyo and Seoul bucked the trend with modest gains, but the overall tone remained subdued, influenced by the anticipation of US data that could ripple through global trade and capital flows.

Amid this backdrop, the debut of American Bitcoin Corp on the Nasdaq captured headlines, intertwining politics, family business, and cryptocurrency in a way that raised eyebrows across Wall Street. The Bitcoin mining company, partially owned by Donald Trump’s sons Eric and Donald Jr., saw its shares surge as high as US$14.52 before closing up 16.5 per cent at US$8.04, valuing the firm at billions and the brothers’ 20 per cent stake at over US$1.5 billion.

Eric Trump, serving as executive vice president of the Trump Organisation, appeared at Bitcoin Asia 2025 in Hong Kong, further spotlighting the family’s pivot from real estate to digital assets. This move expanded the Trump empire into cryptocurrency, with the company planning to mine and hold Bitcoin while raising funds for growth, including partnerships such as one with Hut 8.

From my perspective, this development strikes me as a potent mix of opportunity and peril. The Trump family’s foray into Bitcoin aligns with a broader trend where influential figures leverage their platforms to enter high-growth sectors, potentially accelerating mainstream adoption. It also invites scrutiny over conflicts of interest, especially given the administration’s crypto-friendly policies that could directly benefit such ventures.

Critics point to the risk of blurred lines between public office and private gain, a concern amplified by the family’s history in real estate and now extended to volatile digital assets. While supporters hail it as innovative entrepreneurship, I see it as emblematic of how political dynasties adapt to new economic frontiers, often at the expense of transparency. The stock’s volatile debut, doubling in value before pulling back, mirrors the crypto market’s own unpredictability, and it will be fascinating to watch if this boosts or burdens Bitcoin’s legitimacy in traditional finance circles.

Turning to Bitcoin itself, the cryptocurrency traded near US$110,700 on September 5, clinging just above the short-term holder realised price of US$107,600. This critical support level gauges the average entry point for newer investors. A rare signal emerged on Binance, where the Bitcoin-to-stablecoin ratio approached parity at 1, a threshold that historically signaled major cycle bottoms, as seen in March 2025 when it preceded a rally from US$78,000 to US$123,000.

However, the current consolidation phase lacks the deep capitulation of past bottoms, raising doubts about whether this indicates a genuine rebound or merely turbulence ahead. Stablecoin reserves on Binance hit a record US$37.8 billion, suggesting ample liquidity is sidelined and ready to deploy, which could fuel a surge if sentiment shifts.

Longer-term metrics painted a bullish picture despite short-term jitters. The overall realised price stood at US$52,800, with long-term holders’ realised price at US$35,600, indicating firm conviction among seasoned investors. The net unrealised profit/loss ratio hovered at 0.53, firmly in profit territory but below euphoric peaks, implying room for growth without immediate overheating.

A key risk loomed: Bitcoin’s 50-week simple moving average, a reliable trend indicator since 2018, sat near US$95,000. A drop below this level could trigger the cycle’s first bearish signal, potentially leading to prolonged declines akin to the 63 per cent drop in 2018 or the 67 per cent decline in 2022. Bitcoin has held above this average since March 2023; however, its current positioning places it perilously close.

In my view, these signals highlight Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class, blending technical rigor with on-chain insights that traditional markets envy. The Binance ratio’s reappearance excites me because it underscores crypto’s unique data-driven edge, where exchange flows offer real-time glimpses into capital movements. That said, the absence of capitulation worries me; markets often need pain to purge excess before true bottoms form. If Bitcoin slips below US$95,000, it might test investor resolve.

Still, I suspect that sidelined stablecoins and improving macroeconomic conditions, such as potential Fed cuts, could cap the downside and propel a fourth-quarter rally. September has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest month, averaging negative returns, but 2025’s cycle dynamics, including ETF inflows and political tailwinds, might defy the pattern. Analysts eye US$150,000 by year-end if supports hold, a target that feels ambitious but plausible given the asset’s resilience.

To expand on the labor market dynamics, the August nonfarm payrolls report arrives at a time when other indicators already suggest a deceleration in the economy. For instance, the JOLTS report from earlier in the week showed job openings dipping to their lowest since early 2021, with hires and quits also moderating, signalling reduced churn in the workforce.

Economists attribute this to a normalisation after the post-pandemic hiring frenzy, but persistent weakness could prompt the Fed to accelerate its pivot toward easing. Chair Jerome Powell has emphasised the importance of data dependence, and a subpar jobs number might solidify bets for a 50-basis-point cut at the September meeting, rather than the standard 25-basis-point cut. Markets currently price in about a 40 per cent chance of the larger move, up from negligible levels a month ago, reflecting how quickly sentiment can shift.

Equities’ Thursday rally built on gains in sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary, with companies like Nvidia and Amazon leading the charge after positive analyst notes on AI demand. The services PMI from ISM came in at 55.7, well above the 52.5 consensus, indicating expansion and alleviating fears of a broader slowdown spilling over from manufacturing.

This divergence between goods and services has characterised the current cycle, with services proving more resilient due to steady consumer spending. However, with personal consumption expenditures showing signs of fatigue amid high interest rates, the sustainability of this strength remains in question.

In the Treasury space, the yield curve’s subtle steepening warrants attention, as the spread between two-year and 10-year notes has widened slightly to around 15 basis points. Historically, an inverted curve precedes recessions, and its gradual normalisation could signal the end of that inversion phase, potentially heralding better growth prospects ahead. Traders also monitored auction results for new debt issuances, which absorbed smoothly despite elevated supply, thanks to foreign demand and domestic institutions seeking duration.

The dollar’s modest uptick occurred against a basket where the euro and yen weakened, the former due to uncertainty over ECB policy and the latter amid the Bank of Japan’s cautious tightening path. Gold’s pullback interrupted a rally driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions, but fundamentals like real yields remaining low support its medium-term appeal. Oil’s slide extended a multi-week downtrend, with inventories building unexpectedly and global demand forecasts revised lower by agencies like the EIA, though Middle East risks provide a floor.

Asian markets’ weakness stemmed partly from China’s ongoing property woes and export slowdown, with recent stimulus announcements falling short of investor hopes for aggressive fiscal support. Hong Kong’s drop amplified regional contagion, as property developers faced renewed selling pressure. In contrast, Japan’s Nikkei edged higher on exporter gains from a weaker yen, illustrating how currency dynamics can offset broader pessimism.

The Trump sons’ Bitcoin venture adds a layer of intrigue to an already politicised crypto landscape. American Bitcoin Corp aims to capitalise on the mining boom, leveraging cheap energy sources and advanced hardware to build a substantial hash rate. Their stake’s valuation surge on debut day highlights the froth in crypto-related stocks, reminiscent of the 2021 bull run when similar firms commanded premium multiples. Eric Trump’s public engagements, including speeches at industry conferences, position the family as advocates for deregulation, aligning with the president’s pro-crypto stance that has included proposals for a national Bitcoin reserve.

This familial involvement raises ethical concerns, as policy decisions regarding digital assets could impact personal holdings. Observers note parallels to past Trump Organisation dealings, where real estate projects benefited from zoning changes or tax incentives.

In the crypto industry, the push for clearer regulations may expedite approvals for mining operations or ETF expansions, indirectly boosting the company’s prospects. Supporters argue it democratises access to Bitcoin wealth, but skeptics see it as another avenue for influence peddling in a lightly regulated space.

Bitcoin’s price action around US$110,700 reflects a tug-of-war between bulls holding the line and bears testing supports. The short-term holder realised price acts as a psychological barrier, where breaches often lead to cascading liquidations. On-chain data from Glassnode shows exchange inflows rising modestly, but not to panic levels, suggesting sellers are tactical rather than capitulatory. The Binance ratio nearing 1 implies balanced reserves, historically a precursor to volatility resolution upward.

The stablecoin buildup on exchanges like Binance indicates a significant amount of “dry powder,” with USDT and USDC accounting for over 90 per cent of holdings. This liquidity could spark a rally if macroeconomic catalysts align, such as a dovish Fed or election outcomes that favour crypto. Long-term holders continue to accumulate, with their cohort’s realised price far below current levels, underscoring the diamond-handed conviction forged through multiple cycles.

The 50-week SMA’s proximity adds technical gravity, as crosses below it have heralded regime shifts. In 2018, the breach preceded a crypto winter amid regulatory crackdowns and macro headwinds. 2022’s drop coincided with FTX’s collapse and rising rates. Today’s environment differs, with institutional adoption via spot ETFs providing a buffer, having absorbed billions in inflows since January. A close below US$95,000 would invalidate the uptrend, but dip buyers might emerge, viewing it as a generational entry point.

My take is that Bitcoin’s narrative has evolved from fringe experiment to portfolio staple, and signals like these reinforce its cyclical nature. The lack of deep fear, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index at neutral 50, suggests more downside potential before a sustainable bottom.

But with halving effects still unfolding and supply growth halved, upward pressure builds organically. Political developments, including the Trump connection, could catalyse sentiment, especially if pro-crypto policies gain traction post-election. I anticipate choppy trading through September, but a breakout above US$120,000 remains feasible by Q4, driven by seasonal patterns and improving fundamentals.

Pulling it all together, today’s market wrap reveals a world on edge, with US strength contrasting Asian weakness and crypto injecting fresh drama via the Trump connection. The payroll data will likely dictate the near-term narrative, but broader trends like softening jobs and yield compression point to a pivotal moment for risk assets.

As someone who has tracked these cycles, I believe the current caution masks underlying opportunities, particularly in Bitcoin, where structural bullishness persists amid tactical risks. Investors should closely watch the US$107,600 level; its defence could spark the next leg up, while a failure might invite a healthy reset.

Regardless, the fusion of politics and markets, as seen in American Bitcoin’s splashy entry, reminds us that finance evolves not in isolation but through bold, sometimes controversial, human endeavours. This interplay will shape portfolios for months to come, demanding vigilance and adaptability from all participants.

 

Source: https://e27.co/gold-slumps-oil-tanks-bitcoin-hangs-by-a-thread-the-global-market-meltdown-no-one-saw-coming-20250905/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
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