Navigating market volatility: Bitcoin Hits US$99K, US stocks rally amid trade talks and fed decisions

Navigating market volatility: Bitcoin Hits US$99K, US stocks rally amid trade talks and fed decisions

The financial markets have been a whirlwind of activity this week, with major US stock market benchmarks—the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite—navigating a volatile, choppy session to ultimately close near their session highs.

The Dow gained 284.97 points (0.70 per cent) to close at 41,113.97, the S&P 500 climbed 24.37 points (0.43 per cent) to 5,631.28, and the Nasdaq added 48.50 points (0.27 per cent) to 17,738.16. This late-session rally came amidst a barrage of high-impact catalysts that kept investors on edge: US-China trade talks slated for this weekend in Switzerland, the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady, President Trump’s plan to roll back Biden-era restrictions on artificial intelligence chips, and a steep 7.5 per cent selloff in Alphabet shares due to concerns over declining Google search volumes.

Beyond the stock market, central banks made headlines with contrasting moves—the Fed maintaining its cautious stance while the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) slashed rates to stimulate its economy.

Meanwhile, in the cryptocurrency realm, Bitcoin soared past US$99,000, inching closer to the US$100,000 milestone, while Ethereum’s much-hyped Pectra upgrade failed to ignite immediate enthusiasm. I see a market teetering between opportunity and uncertainty, shaped by geopolitical tensions, monetary policy decisions, and shifting investor sentiment.

Stock market performance and catalysts

Let’s dive into the US stock market’s rollercoaster session. The major benchmarks’ ability to close near their highs despite intraday volatility speaks to the resilience of investor confidence, albeit tempered by unease. One of the day’s biggest drivers was the surge in chipmakers, catalysed by news that the Trump administration intends to rescind Biden-era curbs on AI chip exports.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index, a barometer for the sector, rose 1.7 per cent after an earlier dip of one per cent, reflecting a late rally in stocks like Nvidia and AMD. This policy shift could unlock significant growth for the US tech sector, which has been hamstrung by restrictions aimed at limiting China’s access to advanced technology. However, the broader market’s choppiness suggests that investors remain wary of other headwinds.

The most anticipated news was the announcement that US and Chinese officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and trade negotiator Jamieson Greer, will meet in Switzerland this weekend to discuss trade. Initially, this sparked optimism that the long-standing US-China trade war might see a thaw, especially given Trump’s recent 145 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports.

However, Bessent quickly dampened expectations, telling Reuters that these would not be “advanced” discussions. His realism—or perhaps pessimism—echoes China’s guarded response, with a foreign ministry spokesperson citing a proverb about actions speaking louder than words.

For context, the trade war has disrupted global supply chains, driving up costs and stoking inflation fears. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon recently warned of potential product shortages if tariffs persist, a sentiment shared by many corporate leaders. From my perspective, this weekend’s talks are a critical juncture, but the lack of concrete progress signals more volatility ahead as markets grapple with uncertainty.

Another key factor was the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25–4.50 per cent for the third consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in remarks, acknowledged that the US economy continues to grow at a solid pace, though swings in net exports—likely tied to trade disruptions—have clouded the data.

The Fed’s statement flagged rising risks of inflation and unemployment, particularly due to Trump’s tariff policies. Powell’s cautious tone, emphasising the need for more data before signalling rate cuts, disappointed some investors hoping for dovish hints.

LSEG data suggests markets still anticipate a 25-basis-point cut by July, but the Fed’s focus on tariff-driven inflation risks complicates that outlook. I see the Fed walking a tightrope: easing too soon could fuel inflation, while holding firm might choke growth if trade tensions escalate. This limbo is likely to keep markets jittery.

Alphabet’s sharp 7.5 per cent drop added to the session’s turbulence. Reuters reported that the selloff stemmed from concerns about declining Google search volumes, a critical metric for the tech giant’s revenue. This stumble dragged down the broader tech sector, highlighting how even industry titans face scrutiny in a rapidly evolving digital landscape.

Juxtaposed with the chip sector’s gains, Alphabet’s woes underscore the uneven performance within tech, driven by policy shifts and competitive pressures. As a journalist, I view this as a reminder that market leaders aren’t invincible, especially as AI and other innovations challenge established business models.

Investor behaviour and corporate strategy

Investor sentiment has shifted noticeably amid these developments. Bank of America’s weekly flow data, cited by CNBC, revealed that investors yanked US$8.9 billion out of US equities last week—the largest outflow since March—while funnelling US$7.8 billion into foreign stocks. This pivot suggests growing unease about US market valuations and the potential fallout from trade wars.

At the same time, US companies are planning a record US$500 billion in stock buybacks, according to the Financial Times, as tariff uncertainty stalls capital investment. Buybacks can prop up share prices in the short term, but they also signal a defensive mindset, with firms opting to reward shareholders rather than bet on expansion in a shaky environment.

This trend reflects a broader wait-and-see approach. If trade tensions ease, those funds could shift toward growth initiatives, potentially sparking a rally. For now, though, caution reigns.

Central bank actions

On the monetary policy front, central banks offered contrasting narratives. The Fed’s decision to hold steady reflects a steady-hand approach, balancing solid US growth against inflationary pressures from tariffs. Across the Pacific, the People’s Bank of China took a more aggressive tack, cutting its seven-day reverse repo rate from 1.5 per cent to 1.4 per cent and lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 per cent effective May 15, per Bloomberg.

These moves aim to counter US tariff pressures and bolster China’s economy, which faces deflation, a property crisis, and slowing growth. The PBOC also signalled regulatory flexibility for tariff-hit firms and encouraged equity investments by insurance funds, rounding out a multi-faceted stimulus package.

China’s actions are a pragmatic response to external shocks, but their success depends on whether global trade stabilises. If US-China talks falter, this stimulus might not fully offset the tariff drag, with ripple effects for global markets.

Cryptocurrency trends

The cryptocurrency space provided a stark contrast to traditional markets, with Bitcoin surging past US$99,000 late Wednesday, hitting $99,027.83 as of 11:47 p.m. ET, per CoinDesk. This milestone in its 2025 bull run—just shy of the psychologically significant $100,000 mark—cements Bitcoin’s status as the year’s top-performing major asset.

Several factors are fuelling this rally. Institutional momentum is a big driver: BlackRock’s IBIT spot Bitcoin ETF has outpaced the SPDR Gold Trust in year-to-date inflows, while firms like Japan’s Metaplanet and US-based Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continue aggressive BTC accumulation.

Bitcoin’s realised capitalisation has also hit a record US$890 billion, reflecting growing confidence among long-term holders. Macro tailwinds, including expectations of future Fed rate cuts, further bolster its appeal as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.

Ethereum, however, painted a different picture. Its widely anticipated Pectra upgrade, activated Wednesday, failed to spark immediate excitement. ETH rose a modest 0.96 per cent, with trading volume inching up just 0.52 per cent over 24 hours. This muted response contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s surge, highlighting their divergent roles: Bitcoin as a store of value, Ethereum as a platform for smart contracts.

I see Bitcoin’s rally as proof of its maturation as an asset class, embraced by institutions and retail investors alike. Ethereum’s lackluster reaction suggests that its technological upgrades, while promising, need time to translate into market momentum.

My take

Stepping back, the financial landscape feels like a high-stakes chess game, with each move—whether by governments, central banks, or investors—carrying outsized implications. The US stock market’s resilience amid choppy trading reflects a tug-of-war between optimism (chip policy relief, potential trade progress) and anxiety (tariffs, inflation risks).

The Fed’s steady hand contrasts with China’s stimulus push, illustrating how global economies are responding to shared pressures in distinct ways. Investor flight from US equities and the surge in buybacks signal a defensive crouch, while Bitcoin’s ascent underscores a hunger for alternative assets in an uncertain world.

In my view, the US-China talks this weekend are the linchpin. A breakthrough could calm markets and redirect corporate funds from buybacks to investment, fueling growth. But Bessent’s tempered outlook and China’s reticence suggest a slog ahead, keeping volatility high.

The Fed’s caution makes sense given tariff-driven inflation risks, though it risks lagging if the economy softens. China’s rate cuts are a bold play, but their impact hinges on global trade dynamics. And in crypto, Bitcoin’s dominance is clear, though Ethereum’s slow burn could pay off long-term as its upgrades mature.

I’ll be watching how these threads—trade, policy, and innovation—unravel in the weeks ahead. For now, the markets are a crucible of uncertainty and opportunity, and investors are navigating it with a mix of boldness and caution that’s fascinating to witness.

 

Source: https://e27.co/navigating-market-volatility-bitcoin-hits-us99k-us-stocks-rally-amid-trade-talks-and-fed-decisions-20250508/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Market wrap: Global optimism boosts stocks, Bitcoin holds support , Ethereum bulllish

Market wrap: Global optimism boosts stocks, Bitcoin holds support , Ethereum bulllish

The improved global risk sentiment stems largely from renewed optimism surrounding prospective trade deals and a surprisingly robust US jobs report. The April nonfarm payrolls data, which revealed the addition of 177,000 new jobs, well above the consensus estimate of 138,000, has bolstered confidence in the resilience of the US economy.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has held steady at 4.2 per cent, indicating a labour market that, while not showing signs of significant slowdown, remains balanced. However, this rosy picture comes with a caveat: the lingering effects of recent tariffs have yet to fully materialise in the economic data. As these measures filter through supply chains and consumer prices, their impact could temper this optimism in the months ahead, introducing an element of uncertainty that investors would be wise to monitor.

In the equity markets, the S&P 500 has emerged as a standout performer, climbing 1.5 per cent and extending its winning streak to nine consecutive days—the longest such run in two decades. This remarkable rally, which has seen gains across all major sectors, reflects a broad-based confidence among investors, likely fuelled by the combination of strong economic fundamentals and expectations of continued policy stability. Such an extended period of uninterrupted gains is rare and speaks to the current strength of market sentiment.

Yet, history suggests that prolonged upward trajectories can sometimes precede corrections, as valuations stretch and profit-taking becomes tempting. For now, though, the focus remains on the positive, with corporate earnings season providing further opportunities to gauge the health of US businesses. With 2,043 firms, including 94 from the S&P 500, set to report between May 5 and May 9, these results will offer critical insights into whether this rally has legs or if cracks are beginning to form beneath the surface.

The bond market, meanwhile, has seen a notable shift, with US Treasury yields rising across the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 9.1 basis points to close at 4.308 per cent, while the two year yield surged by 12.5 basis points to 3.824 per cent. This upward movement in yields signals a retreat from recession fears that had previously weighed on investor sentiment. Market participants now appear to anticipate that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady for an extended period, a stance that aligns with the robust jobs data and easing concerns about an economic downturn.

Higher yields can serve as a double-edged sword: they attract income-seeking investors and bolster confidence in risk assets, but they also raise borrowing costs, which could eventually constrain growth in sectors reliant on cheap credit, such as real estate and consumer goods. For now, the market seems to be interpreting this development as a sign of strength rather than a harbinger of trouble.

Currency and commodity markets have also responded to these dynamics. The US Dollar index slipped by 0.22 per cent to 100.030, reflecting a slight weakening against a basket of major currencies. This decline aligns with the improved global risk appetite, as investors shift away from the dollar’s traditional safe-haven status toward higher-yielding opportunities elsewhere.

Gold, another classic safe-haven asset, edged up by 0.04per cent, a modest gain that might seem puzzling amid a weakening dollar and rising risk sentiment. This uptick could indicate a hedging strategy among some investors, perhaps as a precaution against potential inflationary pressures or geopolitical surprises down the road. In contrast, Brent crude oil has continued to slide, dropping 1.4 per cent and marking its second consecutive weekly loss.

Investors are now keenly awaiting the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting, which could either stabilise prices through production adjustments or exacerbate the decline if supply outpaces demand expectations. Oil’s trajectory remains a wildcard, heavily influenced by both economic and geopolitical factors.

Across the Pacific, Asian markets have mirrored this optimism, with equities and foreign exchange rates rallying late last week on hopes of an improving relationship between the United States and China. Such a thaw in tensions could have far-reaching implications, easing trade frictions that have disrupted global supply chains and weighed on economic growth in recent years.

For export-driven economies in Asia, this development is particularly encouraging, as it promises a more favourable environment for trade and investment. Closer to home, Singapore’s political landscape has provided another dose of stability, with the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) securing a stronger mandate in the latest election. The party’s popular vote rose to 65.5 per cent from 61.2 per cent in 2020, signalling continuity in governance and policy—a factor that typically reassures markets and supports economic confidence in the region.

Looking ahead, the week promises to be eventful, with key central bank decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England on the horizon. These announcements will be pivotal in shaping expectations around monetary policy, particularly as inflation, growth, and geopolitical risks remain in focus.

The Fed’s stance, in particular, will be scrutinised for any hints of deviation from its current pause, given the mixed signals from rising yields and strong economic data. At the same time, the ongoing US earnings season will provide a granular view of corporate performance, offering clues about whether the S&P 500’s rally is grounded in sustainable profits or simply buoyant sentiment.

Turning to the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin and Ethereum present intriguing narratives of their own. Bitcoin has returned to its yearly open price and appears to be in an accumulation phase, characterised by sideways price action rather than aggressive moves in either direction. This consolidation often serves as a precursor to a breakout, and the key level to watch is 93,548. If Bitcoin can hold above this threshold, the psychologically significant 100,000 mark comes into view, a milestone that could ignite further enthusiasm among traders and investors.

However, the downside risks are equally noteworthy. Should Bitcoin falter, support levels at 91,619 (a swing low from April 24), 90,561 (an old break-away gap on the four-hour chart), and 88,500 (a former resistance zone) will come into play. A break below 88,000 would mark a significant shift, potentially signaling a broader reversal in sentiment. For now, the market seems poised on the edge of possibility, with traders eyeing both the upside potential and the pitfalls below.

Ethereum, meanwhile, is exhibiting its own consolidation pattern, trading at US$3,150 on Binance as of May 5, up a modest 1.2 per cent over the past 24 hours. Since April 28, it has oscillated between a support level of US$3,000 and resistance at US$3,250, a tight range that hints at pent-up volatility. Trading volume for ETH/USDT on Binance has jumped by 15 per cent to 320,000 ETH in the last 24 hours, reflecting growing interest among market participants.

On-chain data from Glassnode adds a layer of optimism, showing an increase in wallet addresses holding more than 10 ETH—an indication of accumulation by larger investors, often a bullish signal. Network activity further supports this narrative, with daily transactions rising seven per cent to 1.2 million on May 4, underscoring Ethereum’s sustained user engagement. For traders, the consolidation suggests a potential upward move if resistance at US$3,250 gives way, though a failure to break out could see prices retreat toward the lower end of the range.

Stepping back, the broader market outlook reflects a delicate balance between opportunity and caution. The positive momentum—driven by strong US economic data, hopes of trade resolutions, and a stable political backdrop in places like Singapore—provides a solid foundation for risk assets. Yet, the spectre of tariffs, geopolitical uncertainties, and the possibility of policy shifts from central banks introduces risks that cannot be ignored.

In the cryptocurrency realm, Bitcoin and Ethereum are at pivotal junctures, with technical patterns and on-chain metrics pointing to potential upside, tempered by the need to hold critical levels. For investors, this environment calls for a nuanced strategy: embracing the current wave of optimism while remaining vigilant for signs of strain.

Diversification, close attention to macroeconomic cues, and adaptability will be key to thriving in this dynamic landscape, where the interplay of global forces continues to shape the path ahead.

 

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-global-optimism-boosts-stocks-bitcoin-holds-support-ethereum-bulllish-20250505/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Market wrap: Consumer confidence drops, markets rise, Bitcoin ETF soars

Market wrap: Consumer confidence drops, markets rise, Bitcoin ETF soars

US President Donald Trump’s softened stance on auto tariffs has led to persistent concerns over weakening US economic data. Reports that Trump signed orders to mitigate the impact of his auto tariffs through credits and relief on material levies, combined with hints from his trade team about a potential deal with a foreign trading partner, have bolstered risk sentiment.

This development has provided a temporary reprieve from the intense market volatility that has characterised much of April 2025, driven by fears of escalating trade wars. However, softer-than-expected US economic releases, including a widening trade deficit and declining consumer confidence, underscore the fragility of the current recovery.

As investors digest these mixed signals, major asset classes—from equities to bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies—are reflecting a market caught between hope for de-escalation and apprehension about economic slowdown. With key data releases like the US first-quarter GDP and China’s April manufacturing PMI on the horizon, the coming days promise to be pivotal for global markets.

The US equity markets closed Tuesday’s session with modest gains, reflecting the tentative optimism surrounding Trump’s tariff adjustments. The S&P 500 rose 0.58 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.75 per cent, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.55 per cent.

These gains, while modest, mark a shift from the sharp sell-offs earlier in the month, when Trump’s aggressive tariff announcements sent the S&P 500 and Nasdaq into correction territory, with declines exceeding 10 per cent from their February highs. The Dow, less exposed to tariff-sensitive tech sectors, has been relatively resilient but still faced significant pressure, dropping nearly 12 per cent since Trump’s inauguration.

The market’s reaction to the tariff relief suggests investors are cautiously pricing in the possibility of negotiated trade deals, particularly after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled openness to discussions with foreign partners. However, the persistence of a 10 per cent baseline tariff on most imports and heightened duties on China (now at 145 per cent) keeps uncertainty alive, tempering the rally’s momentum.

Tuesday’s data releases painted a concerning picture. The US trade deficit widened to US$162.0 billion in March, up US$14.1 billion from February’s US$147.8 billion, reflecting the disruptive impact of tariffs on global trade flows. This widening gap, coupled with retaliatory tariffs from major partners like China (84 per cent on US goods) and the European Union, raises fears of a prolonged trade war that could further erode US export competitiveness.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 86.0 in April, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decline and hitting the lowest level since January 2021. This persistent erosion of consumer sentiment, driven by tariff-induced price increases and economic uncertainty, signals potential headwinds for consumer spending, a critical driver of US GDP.

Economists at Goldman Sachs have raised their recession probability to 35 per cent, citing tariffs as a significant drag on growth. These weak indicators contrast sharply with the market’s upbeat response to tariff relief, highlighting the disconnect between short-term sentiment and longer-term economic risks.

Fixed-income markets also reflected this cautious mood. The 10-year Treasury yield retreated 4 basis points to 4.17 per cent, and the 2-year yield fell 2 basis points to 3.65 per cent. This pullback follows a volatile period where yields surged to 4.4 per cent amid tariff-driven inflation fears. The decline in yields suggests investors are seeking safety in bonds, driven by concerns over economic slowdown and the potential for foreign governments to sell off Treasury holdings in retaliation for US tariffs.

The US Dollar Index, however, edged up 0.23 per cent to 99.24, supported by relative strength against a basket of currencies despite a broader weakening trend in 2025. The dollar’s resilience may reflect lingering confidence in US economic fundamentals, though its year-to-date decline of over five per cent underscores investor unease about tariff-induced disruptions.

Commodities markets, meanwhile, faced downward pressure. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, tumbled 0.8 per cent to US$3,315 per ounce as signs of easing US-China trade tensions reduced demand for hedges against uncertainty. Despite this dip, gold remains up 19 per cent in 2025, buoyed by earlier tariff-driven volatility that pushed prices above US$3,160 in March. Brent crude slid 2.44 per cent to US$64 per barrel, reflecting dual pressures: investor anticipation of an OPEC+ production increase and fears that tariffs will dampen global fuel demand.

The oil market’s decline, with Brent hitting a nearly four-year low earlier this month, underscores the broader economic concerns weighing energy markets. These commodity movements highlight the market’s sensitivity to policy shifts and macroeconomic trends, with oil particularly vulnerable to global growth expectations.

In Asia, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rose 0.4 per cent on Tuesday, and most Asian equity indices opened higher on Wednesday, buoyed by the US market’s gains and hopes of de-escalating trade tensions. However, the region remains on edge, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 10 per cent for the first quarter and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng suffering a 13.2 per cent single-day drop earlier in April, its worst since 1997.

Constrained by Trump’s escalating tariffs, China’s markets have shown muted gains, with Goldman Sachs lowering its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China to four per cent from 4.5 per cent due to trade headwinds. The upcoming release of China’s April manufacturing PMI will be closely watched for signs of resilience or further slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

The cryptocurrency market, meanwhile, offered a counterpoint to the broader caution. Bitcoin rose one per cent on Tuesday, approaching US$95,500 before encountering resistance. This uptick follows a volatile period where Bitcoin plunged 10 per cent to below US$78,000 after Trump’s initial tariff announcements. The current momentum, driven by anticipation of Trump’s trade deal rhetoric and his upcoming Michigan rally, suggests Bitcoin is benefiting from its perceived role as a hedge against policy uncertainty.

Posts on X have noted safe-haven flows into Bitcoin alongside gold during peak trade fears. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF set a record with US$970 million in single-day inflows, part of an eight-day buying spree in Bitcoin ETFs that underscores robust institutional demand. However, large redemptions from Fidelity and Ark Invest tempered aggregate deposits to US$591 million, indicating mixed sentiment among investors.

Altcoins outperformed Bitcoin, with Ethereum and Cardano gaining two per centeach, signalling a higher risk appetite among crypto investors. This divergence suggests a shift toward speculative assets, possibly driven by expectations of economic stimulus in response to weakening US labor and consumer data.

Job openings fell to 7.2 million in March, below the 7.5 million forecast, and consumer confidence hit a four-year low, conditions that historically precede Bitcoin rallies. Some analysts project Bitcoin could reach US$140,000 by October 2025 if stimulus measures materialise, though such forecasts hinge on unpredictable policy outcomes.

Looking ahead, the first reading of the US first-quarter GDP and China’s manufacturing PMI will be critical in shaping market direction. A weaker-than-expected GDP could amplify recession fears, potentially triggering further safe-haven flows into bonds and cryptocurrencies.

Conversely, a robust PMI from China could bolster Asian equities and ease concerns about global growth. Trump’s Michigan rally, where he is expected to tout his administration’s first 100 days, will also draw scrutiny for clues on trade policy and Bitcoin alignment, given his cabinet’s recent pro-crypto signals.

In my view, the market’s optimism is fragile, resting on the hope that Trump’s tariff relief and potential trade deals will avert a deeper economic downturn.

The persistent weakness in US economic data and the ongoing trade frictions with China suggest that volatility is far from over. Investors are right to remain cautious, as the interplay of tariffs, inflation, and consumer sentiment could tip the US economy into recession if not carefully managed.

The cryptocurrency market’s resilience, particularly Bitcoin and altcoins, offers a speculative outlet for risk-tolerant investors, but it is not immune to broader economic shocks. I see the coming weeks as a critical juncture, where clarity on Trump’s trade strategy and the trajectory of global growth will determine whether markets can sustain this tentative recovery or succumb to deeper uncertainty.

 

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-consumer-confidence-drops-markets-rise-bitcoin-etf-soars-20250430/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j