Tag Archives: market

A 65% probability explains the next likely move for Bitcoin as leverage clears

A 65% probability explains the next likely move for Bitcoin as leverage clears

Bitcoin faces intense downward pressure, tumbling over 6.09 per cent in a 24-hour window to US$66,867.60. This sharp correction means the premier digital asset is notably underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market, which itself fell by 5.39 per cent over the same period.

The velocity of this descent suggests that a complex interplay of excessive leverage, cooling institutional appetite, and structural liquidations has fundamentally transformed what could have been a standard market correction into a disorderly retreat. For observers tracking these capital flows, this pronounced vulnerability highlights how deeply the cryptocurrency ecosystem remains bound to sudden changes in market sentiment and leveraged positioning.

At the very core of this steep price drop sits a massive derivatives-driven liquidation cascade that completely transformed the market dynamics over a 24-hour period. Leveraged long positions worth nearly US$789 million were completely wiped out, forcing automated and non-discretionary market selling that triggered a painful feedback loop. This volume of liquidations represents an astonishing 172 per cent surge over the prior day, proving that retail and institutional traders alike were positioned far too aggressively on the long side.

As prices breached psychological support levels at US$70,000 and US$68,000, exchange liquidation engines automatically dumped collateral into an increasingly illiquid spot market, thereby amplifying the decline’s velocity. Market stabilisation now depends entirely on whether funding rates and open interest can stabilise, signalling that this aggressive excess leverage has been thoroughly cleared from the system.

Compounding this structural selling pressure is a visible erosion of institutional confidence, a pillar that many believed would permanently anchor prices throughout the year. For the 11th consecutive day, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds registered persistent capital withdrawals, with total aggregate outflows reaching US$3.45 billion.

This prolonged streak of capital flight indicates a broader risk-off rotation as professional allocators quietly shift their capital out of digital assets and reallocate it directly into outperforming traditional equities, with artificial intelligence stocks attracting the vast majority of this liquidity.

Furthermore, sentiment suffered a sharp psychological shock following reports that MicroStrategy executed its first Bitcoin sale since 2022. Even though the transaction was minor, it shattered the firmly held market narrative that the corporate treasury would exclusively accumulate and never sell its holdings, introducing an element of doubt that further spooked already nervous participants.

Bitcoin has officially pushed deep into oversold territory, with its 14-day relative strength index collapsing down to 29.09. The digital asset is currently testing a critical floor between its recent swing low of US$66,127 and the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level located at US$67,300. If buyers fail to defend this crucial US$66,127 mark, the structural bearishness will likely intensify and open up a direct path toward US$64,000.

Conversely, if exchange-traded fund outflows finally begin to slow or turn neutral today, a successful defence of this support zone could easily spark a quick relief rally back toward the 50 per cent Fibonacci level at US$68,868.

The current assessment points to a market dominated by strong bearish momentum, where the combination of aggressive liquidations and a cooling institutional bid has firmly handed control over to the sellers. While deeply oversold conditions frequently precede a sharp technical bounce, any near-term recovery will likely remain incredibly weak and highly vulnerable until the asset reclaims and stabilises above its key overhead resistance zones.

Risk managers must keep a vigilant eye on today’s exchange-traded fund data to see if institutional selling pressure is showing signs of exhaustion, while simultaneously watching whether the spot price can successfully defend its current support lines.

Evaluating the probabilities for how this market structure will evolve over the coming days reveals three distinct tactical scenarios for risk allocators to monitor. The primary scenario carries a 65 per cent probability and envisions Bitcoin staging a modest technical bounce from its current oversold conditions to retest US$68,868, before ultimately succumbing to the overarching bearish trend and resuming its decline toward US$64,000. There is a secondary 25 per cent probability that the selling pressure has already peaked, which would allow the asset to firmly establish a long-term bottom right here and begin a sustained, grinding recovery that targets a full reclaim of US$70,000.

Finally, a minor 10 per cent probability exists for an immediate, catastrophic continuation of the liquidation event, a worst-case scenario that would bypass any intermediate consolidation and plunge the asset straight through US$64,000 down to deeper macro support levels.

Let’s see.

 

Source: https://e27.co/a-65-probability-explains-the-next-likely-move-for-bitcoin-as-leverage-clears-20260603/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Why a $1 Trillion Increase In Market Cap Does Not Require A $1 Trillion Injection?

Why a $1 Trillion Increase In Market Cap Does Not Require A $1 Trillion Injection?

The financial world is currently obsessed with a number that does not exist in any bank, vault, or ledger. When the media reports that Bitcoin’s market capitalization has climbed by another $1 trillion, the public imagines a literal tidal wave of cash, one trillion actual dollars, pouring into the digital asset. This is more than a misunderstanding: it is a fundamental failure to grasp the mechanics of price discovery. In reality, that $1 trillion of perceived wealth can be conjured out of thin air by a fraction of that amount in actual capital.

Before you read further, don’t scream at me. I am not talking about your precious Bitcoin; I am just quoting this as an example. To understand why a $1 trillion increase in market cap does not require a $1 trillion injection, one must first dismantle the “Bucket Theory” of markets. Most casual observers view a market like a container. They believe that if the container’s value is $2 trillion, then $2 trillion has been poured into it. This logic is seductive because it is intuitive, but it is entirely false. A market is not a bucket of value: it is a signaling mechanism.

The Arithmetic of the Marginal Trade

The first step in deconstructing this myth is looking at the formula for Market Cap.

Market Cap = Total Circulating Supply X Current Market Price

The “Current Market Price” is not the average price at which everyone bought their Bitcoin. It is simply the price of the last successful trade on an exchange. If the last person to buy a Bitcoin paid $100,000, then the math dictates that every single one of the ~19.7 million Bitcoins in existence is now worth $100,000.

Consider a simplified scenario. Imagine an artist creates 1,000 limited-edition digital prints. They sell the first 999 prints for $1 each. The total cash in the system is $999. Suddenly, a collector buys the very last print for $1,000. Under the rules of market cap, every single print is now valued at $1,000. The market cap has leaped from $1,000 to $1,000,000.

Did the market receive a $999,000 injection of cash? No. It received a $1,000 trade. The value increased by nearly a million dollars because of one transaction at the margin. This is the core of the illusion. In a trillion-dollar market cap increase, we are seeing the last-trade price being applied to millions of coins that never actually moved.

The Anatomy of the Multiplier Effect

Economists and analysts frequently discuss the “Fiat-to-Market Cap Multiplier.” This ratio measures how much the market cap grows for every dollar of net inflow. While estimates vary, the consensus is that the multiplier for Bitcoin is significantly high, often ranging between 10x and 50x depending on the liquidity of the environment.

M = Change in Market Cap/ Inflow

Why does this multiplier exist? It comes down to the Order Book.

At any given moment, there is only a tiny amount of Bitcoin actually for sale at the current price. If a large institution wants to buy $10 billion worth of Bitcoin, it will quickly exhaust all the “sell” orders at the current price. To finish their purchase, they must “eat” through the order book, paying higher and higher prices to convince the next person to sell. By the time they have spent their $10 billion, they may have pushed the price up by 15%.

If that 15% price increase is applied to the entire 19.7 million BTC supply, the market cap might grow by $200 billion. In this scenario, $10 billion in capital created $200 billion in paper wealth. The multiplier here is 20x. The actual injection was only 5% of the resulting growth.

The Scarcity Trap: The HODL Factor

Bitcoin is uniquely susceptible to the multiplier effect because of its extreme illiquidity. In traditional stock markets, there are market makers and institutional desks designed to provide depth, ensuring that large trades do not move the price too violently. Bitcoin, by contrast, is a desert of liquidity.

Roughly 70% of all Bitcoin has not moved in over a year. Millions of coins are lost in forgotten wallets or held by long-term believers who have no intention of selling at today’s prices. This means the “Available Float,” which is the actual number of coins being traded on exchanges, is a tiny fraction of the total supply.

When you have a massive supply but a tiny active float, the multiplier goes into overdrive. Every dollar of inflow is competing for an increasingly small number of available coins. This is the fundamental reason why Bitcoin can add $1 trillion in market cap with relative ease. It is not that the world found a new trillion dollars: it is that the people holding the existing Bitcoin refused to sell until the price reached a level that forced the market cap formula to explode.

The Danger of the Exit Multiplier

This logic is a double-edged sword. If it takes only $50 billion to push the market cap up by $1 trillion, it stands to reason that a $50 billion sell-off can wipe that $1 trillion out just as quickly. This is the “Exit Multiplier.”

Most retail investors view their portfolio value as cash they can access. Still, if every Bitcoin holder tried to cash out simultaneously, they would find that the $1 trillion in added value is a ghost. As soon as a large volume of sellers hits the market, the order book is overwhelmed on the buy side. The price collapses to find the next willing buyer.

In a crash, the multiplier often feels even more aggressive. Panic selling triggers automated liquidations and stop-loss orders, creating a feedback loop where the price drops without any new capital actually leaving the system. The wealth simply evaporates because the consensus on the last price has shifted.

Realized Cap: A Sane Alternative

If you want to know how much money is actually in Bitcoin, you should ignore Market Cap and look at Realized Cap.

Realized Cap values each coin at the price it was last moved on-chain. If someone bought a Bitcoin for $10 in 2011 and has not touched it since, the Realized Cap counts that coin as $10, not the current market rate. This metric acts as an on-chain cost basis for the entire network.

Currently, Bitcoin’s Market Cap is significantly higher than its Realized Cap. This gap represents the unrealized profit of the network. It is the purest measurement of the multiplier. When people argue that $1 trillion is needed to move the market cap by $1 trillion, they are essentially arguing for a 1:1 ratio between Market Cap and Realized Cap. Such a ratio has almost never existed in the history of speculative assets.

The Signaling Mechanism

Ultimately, we must stop treating market cap as a measurement of liquid wealth. It is a measurement of market sentiment and scarcity.

The $1 trillion gain is a signal that the demand for the asset has outpaced the willingness of current holders to sell. It is a reflection of the network’s perceived value, but it is not a bank balance. For those who insist that real money must equal market cap growth, they are ignoring the basic physics of the order book.

Money flows in at the margin. Value is applied to the whole. This discrepancy is where the wealth of the digital age is created, but it is also where the greatest risks are hidden. The trillion dollars isn’t missing: it was never there to begin with. It is merely the price we have agreed to put on a dream that no one wants to sell. Still, the moment someone tries to sell the dream at scale, the hallucination ends.

In Conclusion

The lesson is clear: do not be blinded by the trillion-dollar headline. Market capitalization is a scoreboard, not a safe. It measures the intensity of current belief rather than the actual volume of cash sitting in the system. While the multiplier effect allows us to build towering structures of paper wealth on the backs of small capital injections, those structures remain fundamentally hollow.

Sophisticated participants recognize that while it only takes a small spark to light up a trillion dollars in paper gains, it takes an equal amount of caution to ensure those gains do not vanish into the void of the exit multiplier. The trillion dollars is a reflection of what we think the future is worth, but it is not a guarantee of what we can withdraw today. Respect the signal, but never mistake the map for the territory.

You may think this is about Bitcoin, it is not. The multiplier effect is even more obvious on altcoins. Learn about it more as you continue your journey.

In a world of digital scarcity, wealth is a collective agreement that remains valid only as long as everyone agrees not to leave the room at once.

 

Source:

https://www.benzinga.com/Opinion/26/06/52903997/why-a-1-trillion-increase-in-market-cap-does-not-require-a-1-trillion-injection

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The Calm Before the Storm: Why Crypto’s Liquidity Is Signaling a Structural Break, Not a Healthy Pullback

The Calm Before the Storm: Why Crypto’s Liquidity Is Signaling a Structural Break, Not a Healthy Pullback
Across trading desks, social media channels, and mainstream financial commentary, a comforting narrative has firmly taken root. Bitcoin’s recent volatility is merely a healthy correction, a final shakeout engineered to trap late shorts before the next leg higher. It is a familiar script, one that has rewarded patient bulls in previous cycles. But comfort is often the most expensive illusion in markets. Beneath the surface of recent price action, a far more dangerous signal is flashing. This signal suggests we are not witnessing a tactical pullback, but rather the early stages of a structural liquidity breakdown. The market’s apparent resilience is masking a quiet exodus of institutional capital, and ignoring this divergence could prove catastrophic for highly leveraged participants.

The Canary in the Crypto Order Book

The first crack in the foundation appeared not on candlestick charts, but in the order book depth. Over the past 48 hours, two leading market makers executed a synchronized withdrawal from Hyperliquid, a rapidly growing decentralized perpetuals exchange. The immediate consequence was stark. BTC and ETH trading depth on the platform collapsed by nearly 90% in a single session. To the casual observer, this might read as routine risk management or short-term profit-taking. In reality, it is a classic institutional tell. Market makers do not step away simply because they are bearish on price in my opinion. They step away when the risk-reward calculus shifts toward systemic uncertainty. Their departure is a flight to safety, driven by the recognition that staying fully exposed in a deteriorating liquidity environment is no longer a mathematical play, but a gamble against structural failure. When liquidity providers vanish, price discovery becomes fragile, slippage expands, and the market loses its primary shock absorbers.

Wall Street’s Regulatory Counter-Offensive

This liquidity flight did not occur in a vacuum. It coincides with mounting pressure from two of the most powerful institutions in traditional finance: the CME Group and ICE. Both have reportedly lobbied U.S. regulators to scrutinize Hyperliquid’s expansion into synthetic derivatives tied to crude oil and equities, as well as into IPO pricing mechanisms. What began as a niche crypto derivatives venue has effectively begun encroaching on the global pricing infrastructure that Wall Street has guarded for decades. When decentralized platforms begin competing for traditional-asset liquidity and cross-market price discovery, regulatory pushback is inevitable. The CME and ICE are not merely defending market share. They are signaling that the era of unregulated, cross-asset speculation in crypto derivatives is drawing to a close. For market makers, this translates into heightened compliance risk, potential capital controls, and the very real threat of enforcement actions that could restrict trading or freeze counterparties. In that environment, capital preservation consistently trumps alpha generation.

Macro Realities and the Summer Inflection Window

Compounding this structural risk is a macroeconomic backdrop that is quietly unraveling the very thesis that has propelled risk assets higher over the past year. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury has decisively breached the 5% threshold, a psychological and technical level that fundamentally alters the global cost of capital. Simultaneously, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven crude oil prices sharply higher. The market’s prevailing assumption rests on a fragile premise. That assumption is that the Federal Reserve will soon pivot to aggressive rate cuts because inflation will continue to cool organically. If sustained energy price inflation reignites CPI pressures, the Fed may not only delay easing but could be forced to reconsider its tightening trajectory. Every historical episode of global liquidity contraction has one consistent victim: high-beta, leverage-dependent assets. Cryptocurrencies, particularly altcoins and AI-themed tokens, sit squarely in the crosshairs. When cheap money disappears, speculative premiums evaporate first.

The convergence of macro, regulatory, and behavioral risks points to a critical inflection window between late May and early June. Three catalysts could align to trigger a sharp repricing. First, uncertainty surrounding the continuity of Federal Reserve leadership and policy messaging could inject unprecedented volatility into rate-sensitive markets. This uncertainty leaves traders guessing at the timing of sudden institutional de-risking. Second, June’s macroeconomic data cycle, coupled with a potentially hawkish update to the Fed’s dot plot amid persistent geopolitical risk, could lock in tighter financial conditions for longer than consensus expects. Third, and often overlooked by digital asset traders, is the liquidity siphon effect of major global events. Historical precedent shows that during periods like the World Cup, speculative capital frequently migrates toward sports betting and entertainment markets. This migration drains the already thin pools of risk capital that sustain crypto. When leveraged positions are unwound simultaneously amid fading liquidity, the result is rarely orderly.

The prevailing mantra of “buy the dip” assumes that market structure and macro conditions remain intact. They do not. True market crashes rarely occur when panic is widespread, and leverage is already flushed. They strike when conviction is highest, position sizing is stretched, and liquidity quietly dries up. For traders and portfolio managers, the priority right now must shift from maximizing upside to ensuring survival. Reduce leverage, secure cash reserves, and treat any near-term rallies as risk-management opportunities rather than entry signals. The next wave will not reward those who refuse to let go. It will reward those who recognized the warning signs early enough to step aside.

This moment demands clarity over comfort. The convergence of regulatory pressure, macro headwinds, and liquidity fragmentation creates a perfect storm for a disorderly repricing. Smart capital is not betting on direction. It is positioning for resilience. That means favoring spot exposure over perpetuals, prioritizing assets with real yield or utility over narrative-driven tokens, and maintaining dry powder for opportunities that emerge only after the storm passes. The market will test conviction. It will reward patience. It will punish complacency. Those who understand that liquidity is the true currency of crises will navigate the coming volatility with discipline. Those who mistake noise for signal may find themselves on the wrong side of a move that erases months of gains in days.

 

Source:

https://www.securities.io/crypto-derivatives-liquidity-crisis-hyperliquid-cme-regulatory-pressure/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j