August 13th, 2025

Trump’s trade war looms, but markets are betting on a Fed rate cut

Recent developments, including softer-than-expected US inflation data, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and ongoing trade policy uncertainties, have driven a notable improvement in global risk sentiment. Meanwhile, political pressures on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a robust Wall Street rally, and significant movements in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum highlight the multifaceted nature of today’s markets.

The US economy remains at the forefront of global financial discussions, particularly following July’s softer-than-expected inflation data. This development has fuelled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, as inflationary pressures from President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have not yet fully materialised. Inflation, a key metric for central banks worldwide, has been a persistent concern since the post-COVID-19 price spikes.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a primary measure of inflation, has shown signs of moderation, with recent readings suggesting that price pressures are easing. This has led investors to anticipate a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which could lower borrowing costs and stimulate economic activity.

Goldman Sachs economists, for instance, have revised their forecasts, predicting a potential rate cut in September, three months earlier than previously expected, with a terminal fed funds rate of 3-3.25 per cent by 2026. This shift reflects a belief that tariffs may have a one-time effect on price levels rather than sustained inflationary pressure, coupled with signs of a softening labour market.

However, the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach underscores the uncertainty surrounding trade policies. President Trump’s tariffs, which include a 25 per cent duty on goods from Mexico and Canada and doubled tariffs on Chinese imports, have raised concerns about potential price increases. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasised the need to “wait and learn more” about the tariffs’ impact on inflation before adjusting rates, a stance that has drawn significant criticism from the Trump administration.

Powell has acknowledged that tariffs have contributed to recent price increases, with retailers likely to pass on higher costs to consumers as pre-tariff inventories deplete. Despite these concerns, the Treasury Department, led by Secretary Scott Bessent, has downplayed the consumer impact, citing only a modest 0.1 per cent uptick in prices and highlighting record tariff revenues of US$23 billion in May. This revenue surge underscores the fiscal implications of tariffs, which have generated nearly US$100 billion this year, though businesses have borne much of the cost so far.

The political pressure on Powell has intensified, with Trump publicly considering a “major lawsuit” against him, accusing the Fed Chair of slow-walking rate cuts due to misplaced fears of tariff-driven inflation. Additionally, a referral by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna to the Department of Justice, alleging perjury by Powell over the Fed’s headquarters renovation, has added to the political overhang. These developments have raised concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence, a cornerstone of effective monetary policy.

Investors worry that political interference could undermine the Fed’s ability to make data-driven decisions, potentially destabilising markets. The US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies, weakened by 0.4 per cent following the inflation data and reports of Trump’s plan to nominate EJ Antoni to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This nomination could signal a shift toward more administration-aligned economic reporting, further complicating the Fed’s policy landscape.

Despite these uncertainties, Wall Street has experienced a robust rally, with the S&P 500 gaining one per cent, the NASDAQ climbing 1.4 per cent, and the Dow Jones rising 1.1 per cent. The communications and information technology sectors have been key drivers, reflecting investor optimism about economic resilience and technological innovation.

The S&P 500’s recent highs mark a recovery from a 10 per cent correction earlier this year, triggered by tariff-related fears. US treasuries, meanwhile, have shown mixed performance, with front-end yields declining and long-end yields rising, resulting in a steepening yield curve. This dynamic suggests that investors anticipate stronger economic growth in the longer term, possibly driven by fiscal stimulus or reduced regulatory burdens under the Trump administration. The decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.40 per cent reflects growing demand for safer assets amid trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties.

In the commodities market, gold has remained largely unchanged at US$3,347 per ounce, maintaining its status as a safe-haven asset despite improved risk sentiment. Brent crude, on the other hand, fell 0.77 per cent to US$66 per barrel, reflecting a lack of significant catalysts and subdued demand expectations. The interplay between these commodities and broader market trends highlights the delicate balance between inflationary pressures and growth concerns. Gold’s stability suggests that investors are hedging against potential volatility, while the decline in oil prices points to weaker global demand, particularly in light of trade uncertainties.

In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has taken a dovish stance, lowering its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, marking its third rate cut this year. This move reflects easing inflation concerns and a shift in focus toward global trade and demand risks. Asian equity markets have responded positively, buoyed by Trump’s extension of the US-China trade truce and confirmation that gold imports will remain tariff-free. These developments have alleviated some concerns about trade disruptions, contributing to gains in Asian indices and a positive start to today’s trading session. US equity futures, however, suggest a mixed opening, indicating that investors remain cautious about the broader economic outlook.

The cryptocurrency market has also been a focal point, with Bitcoin retesting US$122,000 before pulling back to US$119,053. This rally reflects renewed investor enthusiasm, driven by broader market optimism and significant institutional activity. Binance’s dominance in global trading volume is a critical metric, as concentrated activity on a single exchange could signal limited market breadth, potentially undermining the sustainability of the rally.

Historical comparisons suggest that broader market participation is essential for sustained price gains at all-time highs. Meanwhile, Ethereum has surged over seven per cent to above US$4,500, fuelled by significant institutional adoption and capital flows. The Ethereum Foundation’s sale of 2,795 ETH, valued at US$12.7 million, has drawn attention, particularly as it coincides with ether’s strong price momentum. The wallet, linked to the “EF 1” address, now holds 99.9 ETH and 11.6 million DAI, reflecting a strategic move to lock in gains during the price surge.

Corporate adoption of Ethereum has further bolstered its performance, with companies like SharpLink Gaming and BitMine holding nearly US$9 billion in ETH. BitMine, under the leadership of chairman Tom Lee, has transitioned from Bitcoin mining to an Ethereum treasury, with holdings exceeding US$5 billion. Lee’s ambitious plan to raise US$20 billion to acquire more Ethereum underscores the growing institutional confidence in the cryptocurrency.

Spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also seen record inflows, with over US$1 billion in daily net inflows on Monday, marking a significant milestone since their debut. These developments highlight Ethereum’s outperformance of Bitcoin in year-to-date gains, driven by its utility in decentralised finance and institutional backing.

The broader economic and market environment remains fraught with uncertainty. Trump’s tariff policies, while generating significant revenue, pose risks to consumer prices and global trade dynamics. The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance reflects a delicate balancing act between fostering economic growth and containing inflation.

Political pressures on the Fed, combined with leadership transitions looming in 2026, could further complicate monetary policy. Meanwhile, the resilience of US equity markets and the surge in cryptocurrencies suggest that investors are navigating these uncertainties with a mix of optimism and caution.

In my view, the current improvement in global risk sentiment is a fragile one, heavily contingent on the trajectory of US monetary policy and trade negotiations. The Federal Reserve’s data-dependent approach is prudent, given the potential for tariffs to reignite inflationary pressures. Political interference in central bank operations risks undermining market confidence and could lead to volatility if not carefully managed.

The strength in equity markets, particularly in technology and communications, reflects the transformative potential of innovation, but valuations may be stretched if economic growth falters. Cryptocurrencies, while benefiting from institutional adoption, face risks of overheating, particularly if trading activity remains concentrated on platforms like Binance. The RBA’s rate cut and Asia’s positive response to trade truce extensions highlight the global ripple effects of US policy decisions. Investors should remain vigilant, balancing opportunities in risk assets with hedges like gold to navigate the uncertainties ahead.

Source: https://e27.co/trumps-trade-war-looms-but-markets-are-betting-on-a-fed-rate-cut-20250813/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

August 12th, 2025

Why tonight’s inflation report could shake global markets to their core

July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is a critical indicator of inflationary trends that could shape monetary policy and asset prices worldwide. The muted global risk sentiment reflects a cautious stance among investors, driven by uncertainty surrounding the inflation report and its implications for Federal Reserve policy.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s executive order extending the China tariff deadline by 90 days into early November has provided a temporary reprieve, lifting sentiment in Asian markets. However, Wall Street’s cautious retreat from near-record highs, coupled with developments in cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Bitcoin, underscores the intricate interplay of macroeconomic data, trade policies, and speculative assets in shaping market dynamics.

The US July CPI report, due tonight, is a focal point for markets, as it will provide insight into whether inflationary pressures are intensifying or moderating. Economists project a year-over-year headline inflation increase of 2.8 per cent, up 10 basis points from June’s 2.7 per cent, with core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, expected to rise 0.3 per cent month-over-month and 3.0 per cent annually. These figures are critical because they could influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates at its September meeting.

A softer-than-expected CPI reading could bolster expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut, signalling that the Fed views inflation as manageable and is prioritising economic growth amid signs of a slowing labour market. Conversely, a higher-than-expected figure could dampen hopes for immediate rate cuts, as persistent inflation driven by tariffs and supply chain pressures might force the Fed to maintain its current stance. This uncertainty has kept investors on edge, contributing to a cautious tone in global markets.

The recent executive order from President Trump extending the China tariff deadline by 90 days has introduced a layer of optimism, particularly in Asian equity markets. The decision, while light on specifics, signals a temporary de-escalation in US-China trade tensions, which have been a significant driver of market volatility in 2025.

Asian equity indices opened higher this morning, reflecting relief that the immediate threat of escalated tariffs has been deferred. This extension aligns with earlier trade agreements, such as the May 12 deal that paused additional tariffs and set US tariffs on Chinese imports at 30 per cent, while China lowered its tariffs on US goods to 10 per cent.

However, the fluid nature of trade policy under the Trump administration keeps markets wary. A social media post from the White House on May 30 suggested that China may have violated the agreement, raising the specter of renewed tariffs. Such unpredictability underscores the fragility of the current truce and its potential to disrupt global trade and inflation dynamics.

Wall Street’s reaction to these developments has been subdued, with major indices like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones retreating slightly from near-record levels, declining by 0.3 per cent, 0.3 per cent, and 0.5 per cent, respectively. This pullback reflects investor caution ahead of the CPI data, as a higher-than-expected inflation reading could pressure risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies.

US treasury futures have shown limited volatility, with yields remaining rangebound, indicating that bond markets are also in a wait-and-see mode. The US Dollar Index, up 0.3 per cent, has benefited from this cautious sentiment, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid uncertainty. Gold, however, retreated 1.4 per cent to US$3,351 per ounce after Trump clarified that bullion imports would be exempt from tariffs, reducing its appeal as a hedge against trade-related inflation.

In the commodity markets, Brent crude oil edged up 0.1 per cent, consolidating at higher levels despite a lack of significant news flow. The oil market’s stability reflects a balance between demand concerns and supply dynamics, with OPEC+ reportedly considering a larger-than-expected production hike.

This development could cap upside potential for oil prices, particularly if trade tensions resurface and dampen global demand. The interplay between tariffs, inflation, and commodity prices remains a critical factor for investors, as higher input costs could further fuel inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy calculus.

The cryptocurrency market, meanwhile, has emerged as a bright spot amid the broader caution. Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin in year-to-date gains, rising 29 per cent to US$4,311.58 compared to Bitcoin’s 28 per cent increase to US$120,020.83. Ethereum’s surge past the US$4,000 mark, a level not seen since December 2024, reflects growing institutional demand and inflows into US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

These funds have attracted US$5 billion in net inflows over the past month, with total assets under management reaching US$20 billion since their launch in July 2024. Digital asset treasury companies (DATs) are also stockpiling ETH, emulating the strategy pioneered by Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor. This institutional buying has bolstered Ethereum’s price, despite a 0.9 per cent daily decline, and highlights the increasing integration of cryptocurrencies into mainstream finance.

Bitcoin, while slightly trailing Ethereum in year-to-date performance, has also seen significant gains, climbing above US$122,000 over the weekend. The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation has surged to US$4.1 trillion, reflecting renewed investor enthusiasm. The correlation between Bitcoin and US equity markets has strengthened since mid-July, suggesting that cryptocurrencies are increasingly viewed as risk assets sensitive to macroeconomic developments.

Options market activity underscores this dynamic, with Bitcoin options open interest at US$43 billion and Ethereum at US$13.9 billion, approaching record highs. Traders are positioning for volatility around the CPI release, with elevated open interest indicating both hedging against downside risks and bets on further upside momentum. Short-call covering in Bitcoin options suggests reduced bearish sentiment, but implied volatility is expected to remain high until the CPI data provides clarity.

From my perspective, the current market environment reflects a delicate balance between optimism and caution. The extension of the China tariff deadline offers a reprieve, but the lack of clarity on trade policy keeps investors on edge. The CPI report will be a pivotal moment, as it could either reinforce expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve or signal persistent inflationary pressures that delay rate cuts.

The resilience of cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Bitcoin, driven by institutional adoption and ETF inflows, highlights their growing role as alternative assets in a volatile macroeconomic landscape. However, their correlation with equities suggests that a negative surprise in the CPI data could trigger a broader sell-off in risk assets.

The Federal Reserve faces a challenging path. Two Fed governors, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, dissented in the last meeting, advocating for rate cuts due to signs of a slowing labor market and their belief that tariff-driven inflation may be transitory.

However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasised a data-dependent approach, and a higher-than-expected CPI reading could strengthen the case for holding rates steady. The labor market, while still robust, shows signs of softening, with recent revisions slashing job growth figures for May and June to 19,000 and 14,000, respectively. These figures, the lowest two-month job growth since April 2021, add pressure on the Fed to balance its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

Asian markets’ positive response to the tariff deadline extension underscores the global sensitivity to US trade policy. However, the risk of retaliation from trading partners, such as the EU’s potential €95 billion countermeasures, looms large.

Tariffs have already driven price increases in categories like furniture, auto parts, and electronics, contributing to inflation expectations of 4.4 per cent in the coming year, according to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey. Despite these concerns, consumer sentiment improved in July to 61.8, reflecting resilience in the face of tariff threats and robust retail sales data.

In conclusion, the US CPI report serves as a critical catalyst. The interplay of trade policy, inflation, and monetary policy will shape market sentiment in the coming weeks. Cryptocurrencies, particularly Ethereum, are carving out a significant role in this environment, driven by institutional demand and speculative interest.

However, the risks of higher inflation and renewed trade tensions could disrupt the current rally in risk assets. Investors should remain vigilant, balancing opportunities in equities and digital assets with the need to hedge against potential volatility. The next few days will be crucial in determining whether the current cautious optimism gives way to renewed confidence or a retreat into risk-off sentiment.

Source: https://e27.co/why-tonights-inflation-report-could-shake-global-markets-to-their-core-20250812/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

August 7th, 2025

Trump’s policy effect: From semiconductors to Bitcoin, how government moves are shaping markets

News of US President Donald Trump imposing a 100 per cent levy on semiconductor imports, paired with exemptions for companies relocating production to the US, has sparked a wave of optimism among investors. This development has lifted global risk sentiment and fuelled a rally in US stock markets, especially in big tech.

At the same time, the Bank of England’s anticipated interest rate cut, mixed signals from US Treasuries, a weakening US dollar, and movements in commodities like gold and Brent crude paint a complex picture. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has caught attention with a modest rebound, bolstered by surging ETF inflows, technical support, and corporate accumulation.

Let’s unpack these interconnected events and explore what they mean for the world economy and financial markets.

Trump’s semiconductor levy: A game-changer for US markets

The announcement of a 100 per cent levy on semiconductor imports stands out as a pivotal move. Semiconductors are the backbone of modern technology, powering everything from smartphones to cars to defence systems. By slapping such a steep tariff on imports while offering exemptions to companies that shift production back to the US, Trump aims to rewire global supply chains in America’s favour.

The immediate market reaction has been telling. The S&P 500 climbed 0.7 per cent, the Dow Jones edged up 0.2 per cent, and the Nasdaq surged 1.2 per cent, with big tech stocks leading the charge. Investors clearly see this as a boon for US-based firms, especially those in the technology sector that rely heavily on these critical components.

This policy could spark a renaissance in US manufacturing. Companies that move production stateside might tap into tax breaks, create jobs, and bolster national security by reducing dependence on foreign suppliers. For tech giants, the exemptions could translate into lower costs and a competitive edge, explaining the Nasdaq’s outsized gains.

Yet, the picture isn’t all rosy. The levy could jolt global supply chains, raising costs for companies unable to relocate quickly. Many firms operate intricate networks spanning multiple countries, and uprooting those operations might prove costly or impractical. Consumers could feel the pinch too, as higher production costs trickle down to product prices.

On the geopolitical front, this move might ruffle feathers. Major semiconductor exporters like Taiwan, South Korea, and China could view the levy as a shot across the bow, potentially sparking retaliatory tariffs or trade disputes. The long-term success of this policy hinges on execution, whether companies can realistically shift production without derailing efficiency or profitability. For now, though, the market’s bullish response signals confidence in the short-term upside, even if uncertainties loom on the horizon.

Bank of England’s Rate Cut: Stimulus with Strings Attached

Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England has investors on edge as it prepares to announce its policy decision on Thursday. Analysts widely expect a 25-basis-point cut, bringing the key interest rate to 4.00 per cent. This move aims to juice up the UK economy by making borrowing cheaper, encouraging businesses to invest and households to spend. After a period of tighter policy to tame inflation, this shift suggests the central bank sees room to prioritise growth.

What does this mean for the UK? Lower rates could lift demand, supporting sectors like housing and retail. Exporters might also catch a break if the British pound weakens, making UK goods more attractive overseas. However, a depreciating pound could stoke inflation by driving up import costs, a risk the Bank of England will need to monitor closely.

The decision’s ripple effects will depend on the central bank’s messaging. If it hints at more cuts ahead, markets might cheer, but any sign of hesitation could dampen the mood. For now, anticipation of this stimulus has added a layer of optimism to the global risk rally.

US treasuries and the dollar: Mixed signals abound

Back in the US, Treasury yields are sending mixed messages. On Wednesday, the 2-year yield dipped 1.1 basis points to 3.714 per cent, while the 10-year yield ticked up 1.6 basis points to 4.226 per cent. This split suggests investors expect short-term rates to stay low, perhaps reflecting faith in a dovish Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, the uptick in longer-term yields points to worries about inflation or stronger growth down the road. It’s a tug-of-war between near-term caution and longer-term bets.

The US Dollar Index, or DXY, underscores this uncertainty. It dropped for a fourth straight day, landing at 98.18. Recent disappointing US economic data, like sluggish job growth or softer consumer spending, might be fueling speculation that the Fed will ease policy further. A weaker dollar boosts US exporters and multinational firms by making their goods cheaper abroad and inflating overseas earnings. Yet, it also reflects a broader shift in confidence, with investors looking beyond the dollar for returns as global risk appetite picks up.

Commodities and Asian markets: Riding the wave

Commodities offer another lens on market dynamics. Gold slipped 0.3 per cent to US$3,369 per ounce, a modest pullback after a four-day winning streak. Profit-taking likely drove the dip, but gold’s lofty price underscores its role as a haven amid uncertainty. Brent crude, meanwhile, fell 1.1 per cent to US$66.89 per barrel, nudged lower by news of a potential Trump-Putin meeting. If that summit eases geopolitical tensions over energy sanctions or conflict zones, oil’s risk premium could shrink further.

Asian stock markets, on the other hand, caught the upbeat vibe. They rallied Wednesday and opened higher Thursday, buoyed by hopes of Fed rate cuts. Cheaper borrowing in the US often floods global markets with liquidity, lifting risk assets like stocks. US equity futures echoed this sentiment, hinting at a strong open. The interplay of US policy shifts and Asian market gains highlights how interconnected the financial world has become.

Bitcoin’s bounce: Institutional faith and technical grit

Then there’s Bitcoin, which rose 0.85 per cent in the past 24 hours to US$114,592.79, shaking off a 3.23 per cent weekly slide. Three forces are at play here. First, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw US$91.52 million in net inflows on August 6, snapping a five-day outflow streak. BlackRock’s US$41.9 million and Bitwise’s US$26.35 million led the charge, pushing total ETF assets to US$146.73 billion. This flood of institutional money signals growing trust in Bitcoin’s stability, with heavyweights like BlackRock holding roughly 625,000 BTC. If inflows persist, they could anchor prices above US$115,000.

Second, Bitcoin’s technicals tell a story of resilience. It held firm at the US$112,000 support level, buoyed by the 50-day simple moving average at US$112,860 and a key Fibonacci level at US$113,455. Traders are buying dips, pushing it toward resistance at US$115,500. The RSI sits at 49.15, showing neutral momentum, but a bearish MACD hints at caution. A break above US$115,500 could eye US$117,500, while a slip below US$113,500 might test US$110,800.

Third, corporate moves are turning heads. Japan’s Metaplanet snapped up 463 BTC for US$53.7 million at US$115,895 per coin, while Tether unveiled plans to become the world’s top Bitcoin miner by 2025, aiming for 80,000 BTC. These steps shrink exchange supply and cement Bitcoin’s “digital gold” allure. Tether’s mining push, in particular, could tighten long-term supply, nudging prices higher if demand holds.

For now, the data backs a cautiously optimistic view: markets are climbing, liquidity is flowing, and innovation is humming. The threads tying it all together feel fragile, and keeping a sharp eye on the numbers will be key to navigating what’s next.